and all the worries over the upcoming debt ceiling, this market wants to go higher. we saw new money coming in from hedge funds, 401(k)s, pension funds. of course then there is the fed. the easy money policies from ben bernanke and global central bankers have created a situation where there simply are few alternatives to u.s. equities, to get any kind of return. so, do fundamentals matter? when we see a down day for stocks, traders say, it's not heavy selling, just a lack of buyers for the day. i've been predicting a disappointing fourth quarter earnings and i think things are tough out there. every business manager i talk to says the uncertainty looms large. we may see disappointment that will send this market lower over the near term. but that's just a trade. the trend seems very much to be buy on the dip, again and again. so, with $3.6 trillion still on the sidelines, fewer alternatives away from u.s. eck whatties, europe a mess, asia

slowing. i would have to say, don't fight the fed. have a great night, everybody. stay with cnbc. here's "fast money" now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. here are tonight's top three trades. clash of the titans, two hedge fund legends, one stock. where you should place your bet on herbalife. can hp split up and spit off? and digging for gold. a market mystery, why gold miner shares keep lagging the precious metal. we'll get the story. first, let's get to today's action. stocks holding firm, so, we ask, buyer, seller, guy? >> i don't have a crystal ball. and that's a third eye blind, song, by the way. big fans of the show. >> not me. >> stop, stop. get into the show. i still think the market trades very well. i think we are going to trade between 1525 and 1550 and i

think that's when we're going to fail. coincide with the vix trading down around 12 and maybe, maybe yields getting up to 2%. i think it happens in the next couple of weeks. >> tim? >> you don't need a crystal ball to know that europe is rallying, it's the garlic part of europe. portugal, spain, italy are going through the roof. major rotation going on. if you look at the european banks, there's a lot going on. i look at the ten-year, which has come back a little bit. but if you talk to the guys on the fixed income side, they say we've settled down to 1.75 and probably hold those ranges. people that were expecting dramatic moves, i don't think you get it. risk assets, to me, can still old their own and even rally a bit as the dollar is going higher and i don't think the dollar is going to give a ton of ground here. i think when you look at the miners, they are trading very well in the context of a world where people are a little cautious. >> let's talk financials here. we have to get to bank of america. the biggest gainer in the dow in 2012 but a big loser today.

downgrading the bank to a neutral, citing valuation. the stock closed lower by 4.5%. is b of a out of steam? >> i think for today. i don't think the story's changed at all. we're long b of a and continue to be long. i think you have a lot of positive things going on. you're getting clarity. you are starting to get a lot more charity on the legal situation. clearing up a number of these issues that have weighed so heavi heavily. that's very important. a booming housing market. that's really important. i think the story is as good here as it was at lower prices. >> i think what the analysts is pointing out is valuation. that's what investors are saying, the run of bank of america. the analysts say that it's trading at 11 times 2013 earnings. >> it's a relative call.

>> exactly. these near term to intermediate term, this is essentially a trading call. you go into the stock that have lower valuation. >> one of the first things you learn about investing is that valuation down grades typically are good buying opportunities if you are constructive on a company, looking at six months, one year. if there's a downgrade based on something else, something structural and a change, that's a different story. in this case, he's basically saying, look, the markets pricing in 16% in lowered costs and we're thinking ten. it's very, very nuanced and granular and so if you like the name, you want to be in the sector, they just gave you an opportunity to buy. >> if i look at it, i don't think it's crazy expensive. it's about expense control and -- the operating lefers in their ability to control them. so, citibank gets that, but back to what karen was saying, i think those are all very positive things that are happening for bank of america. removing all the litigation. but isn't this something they've already kind of told us all along the way? and so as much as i'm a buyer of

that, and i -- >> and that was his point, as well. the shares are discounting all the cost cuts already. >> i think from a trading perspective, i think the stock, it stopped right on the 20-day. i think this is a place to buy. i don't think it's expensive. if i compare it to a morgan stanley or even one of the investment banks where i think they're going to start earning a lot more from their fixed income and trading business because people counted those as dead, bank of america's gotten a lot of good will here, so. >> quick question to you here as we await wells fargo earnings on friday. goldman sachs had a note out, you want to be invested with the banks, into the banks that have the most lefers to still pull. you don't want to be in the best of breed. all of that's in the stock already. >> i think wells fargo probably fits that mode. i think, though, goldman sachs, you mentioned them, i will talk about -- they had a tremendous day today, goldman sachs. look at the last hour in the trading action. and i still think if you want to be in the space, goldman, we talked about this a few weeks

ago, we said, you can own goldman sachs, i still believe that to be the case. my favorite bank out of all of them, i still think it's u.s. bank corp. >> let's talk herbalife. back in the headlines today as activist investors take different sides. dan loeb revealed an 8% stake in the company. bill ackman revealed his massive short position. c nbc's herb green berg has been following the story. herb joins us with the very latest on this and herb, this is a day ahead of the big meeting. what are we expecting? >> what we're expecting is the company to come back, as they said, shred ackman's presentation. but the question is, will they do that? in one sense, it is theirs to lose. and most important here, you want to see what the company says about a comment they actually gave kay kelly on cnbc, when she asked the question, how much of your sales go to

customers that have nothing to do with herbalife, they are outside the network. and michael johnson, the ceo said, 90%, kay said, really? he said, absolutely. that's a number i certainly have never heard, because the company has said they don't know the number, they don't know what that number is and now we need to see what they say about that number and if they can really quantify that number. >> right. and herb, you've been looking at this company for months at this point and in terms of multilevel marketing, you know, the primary focus of ackman's presentation, 342-page presentation is that this thing is a pyramid scheme. by the strictest definition of multilevel marketing, would you agree? >> first of all, it's not do i agree, that's something regulators would have to determine, because they have to get into that very nuanced and difficult economic analysis to determine that. remember, there's no real definition out there. believe it or not, remarkably. and i talk about this in this big special we have on cnbc.com

right now, shameless self-promotion, but in terms of what is a pyramid scheme, do most of your sales come from recruiting, in other words, the process of recruiting others, rather than selling product. and if it's mostly recruiting, that would be, by all definitions, a pyramid scheme. >> yeah. and actually dan loeb's response today, or the letter that he sent out to shareholders, explaining why he took this position, essentially said that it would be shocking if this thing was actually revealed to be an actual pyramid scheme, because, you know, there are some other research out there by various professors, but one of note from the kellogg school who says, you know what, all the sales at herbalife, they are actually sales, they're not, you know, all the compensation is backed by actual sales. >> melissa, i have to stop you on that. that professor is a paid -- has been paid by herbalife -- >> oh, really? >> and that data actually is something that if you read the

fine print of that report she put out is information that she received from herbalife. i've talked, in my piece today, i talked to the dean of the business school at the university of new jersey, william keep. he is one of the most -- he is one of the fore most experts on pyramid schemes. he wrote one of the landmark papers on this with the key economist. he said that there are very -- he believes -- he is confident that there are many pyramid schemes operating today as multilevel marketings that have been around for a long time. he says it's time that a bright light is shined on this and people really take a look at that. yes, let's remember. that professor, that professor, in my estimation, is conflicted. >> okay, so, ann coughlin is a paid consultant. we should be clear, too, that they've got a lot of paid consultants out there. there was that video of madeleine albright floating around, who was interviewed by michael johnson and she is also

a paid consultant of the company. >> that's right. and so you have to look at the fine print here and look at what people's, you know, biases are. that doesn't mean that the research isn't right, but when i see, you know, that this is something sponsored by herbalife and the data came directly from herbalife, you know, i sort of discredit that as somebody i'm going to talk to. >> okay, herb, thank you. >> sure. >> all right, we should note, herb's full report on multilevel marketing and herbalife, including a full-length documentary can be found online right now at sellingthedream.cnbc.com. and tomorrow at 11:45 a.m. eastern time, michael johnson will join us in a cnbc exclusive. let's trade this. a lot of trade here. interesting mix of characters now in the fray when it comes to the long and the short side, karen. >> really interesting mix. it doesn't get more interesting than this. you have 13 g, which is an important, to note, that it's a 13 g filing, which means that

dan loeb's filing, he isn't going to be active in this at this time. and it allows him to trade with more flexibility and he doesn't have to disclose that trading. if you have a 13 d position and you trade more than 1% of the shares outstanding, you need to update your filing. we're not going to see that from him until the earliest, i believe, the 13 f that m cos out. >> how timely are the filings when was this filed? when would it -- >> if the 13 g was just filed, it is within ten days after he went over the 5%. so, we now -- >> karen, if this stock pops tomorrow, can he take his profit? >> absolutely. and we wouldn't see that then. >> right. >> until his next 13 f filing. >> has he speculated on ackman's speculation? has he said, this is total garbage, i think -- as he said, unbelievable this is a pyramid scheme. has he come in here with the stock at $25, now at $39, said, that's crazy. i'm not saying he bottom ticked

it. but his call, i'm going to be an opportunist on another guy's call, which i don't believe. >> kind of. >> lay out a valuation case. >> he did. >> whether or not he cares to stick around based on that is another story. >> he pointed out it is an emerging markets company and the majority of sales come from around the world and not here in the united states. >> enough evidence or that the ftc would follow through just because ackman wants. >> this is how they distribute their product. is this looking at a profile, saying, it's not as buoyant. pyramid scheme by implication is negative. >> one last thing -- >> pyramid scheme as a model for your business, receiving to your distributors to then go sell and you have to account for that when you're analyzing is very different story. >> just -- really tight borrow. so, be careful if you are short this thing. let them shoot it out. don't get caught in the middle. >> mike, the stocks move has been stunning. since the stock hit a two-year low shortly after ackman announced his position, the

stock is up 48%. the short interest on the thing, 25% of shares outstanding at this point. >> yeah, no, that's right. ackman himself has suggested -- the short interest in this thing, when the ackman presentation came out was 20%. and he said that he was the lion share of it. so, you know, obviously we're going to see more people as they listen to his story hit some bids in the stock. i mean, the options activity was overwhelming. 400,000 open interest coming in today. almost 50% of that traded in terms of volume. put buying outweighing -- i actually sold some calls myself. and the logic is this. you know, if you sell may 45 calls on this, you are basically collecting anywhere from $2 to $4 in premium. my guess is, people who held the stock before all of this came would probably be happy sellers in the high 40s, 50 bucks. so, it seems to me the stock is going to face a significant amount of resistance if it should get back up to that level. karen is absolutely right. when the stock becomes hard to borrow, there's an opportunity for a squeeze here and that's probably helping to explain the

high volatility. >> got to hit a break here. coming up, inside look at mgm's move into macau. the ceo is here with its plans to stay one step ahead of the competition. and later on, former goldcorp ceo is here with a shocking call on gold. you will not believe where he thinks gold is headed next. [ male announcer ] staples is the number-one

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mgm getting the green light to build a second casino in macau today. macau is the world's largest gambling center, earning six times gambling revenue than las

vegas. the shares are up 23% since then. joinings now in an exclusive from las vegas is jim moren. great to people with you. >> thank you vefor having me. >> how important will this project be in terms of mix of revenues? >> well, we're the smallest licensee in macau today, but we don't aim to stay that way. the fact we got this news means we'll build $2.5 billion resort and better than double our prophets in that market and we will open that in the next 20 to 36 months, so, i think that's very big news. >> recently, declines year on year, at least, in terms of macau gaming revenues and part of that is tighter regulation of the region. in 2013, there's going to be an anti-smoking ban, tighter regulations there and then also, scrutiny of the v.i.p. junkets. v.i.p. customers account for 77% of total revenues.

how do you see that playing out, the time when you're building this thing and do you anticipate those crackdowns will get even tiger? >> well, actually, december was a record month in macau and so far, january's up 18% year over year. the smoking restrictions went into place on january 1st and so far we've seen no discernible impact on our business. macau will likely grow in the mid to high double digits again this year in terms of its gaming revenue. and we expect either maintain or, i think, actually build our market share in that market. so, we're quite excited for the opportunity to be there. >> so, again, just to bottom line this, no scrutiny with the v.i.p. junkets? >> that's correct. we've seen no impact and we believe the v.i.p. business will be very strong in macau this year in 2013. >> hey, jim, it's tim. jpmorgan has a note out recently that says they are giving basically $12 a share value to your macau business.

this leaves your las vegas strip and other domestic businesses almost under -- not given at least any attention. so, going back to the u.s. business, just understanding a little bit, what kind of upside do you see there? this is clearly where people have always said this is your bread and butter, even though we all know what's going on in macau is fantastic. >> you know, it's remarkable situation right now. here we are at ces, i'll be going over to the show after this show. we're completely sold out at all of our proper tip ties in las v. we have 42,000 hotel rooms here. if we get any kind of pricing power, if this continues throughout this year, we have significant operating leverage. and that's really the equity story for us. we expect that if we keep our expenses relatively modest, which i promise to do, we're always to drive revenue through higher adr, higher gaming revenues, we're going to be able to bring a lot of growth to our profit margin and our cash flows.

i think that will be the equity story over the next couple years. >> and jim, i want to ask you about another area of growth, potentially, and that is online gaming. you recently got the license from the state of nevada. you are waiting for your partner to get that same state of nevada license before you actually operate. is there a time frame on that? can you give us a date so when you're going to get up and running? >> well, we along with the aga, our gaming lobbying group has been pushing for a federal law on internet poker, but as we know, it's tough to get stuff done in washington right now, so we're still hopeful that that could happen. if it does not happen, it will happen state by state. we're anticipating to be involved either way, so, i would expect mgm will be involved in internet poker by the end of this year,iter in a state by state compact with nevada being a hub, or hopefully ultimately at a federal level. >> all right, jim, great to speak with you. thank you for your time. >> thank you very much. >> jim murren of mgm.

in terms of mgm versus a las vegas sands or others, where do you go, josh? >> i think there's such a high correlation two both the news flow and actually stock prices in china that that's really all the cue that you need, so, if you are looking for a domestic play on what we think is now going to be a good story in 2013, for the far east, why not buy these u.s.-based casinos that are clearly doing most of their business there. >> by the way, they have applications in for approval for casino in springfield, there are new developments domestically, as well. >> doc had a nice trade in las vegas sands. today was a big volume day in the name. probably two, two and a half anytimes normal volume. so, probably not the best place to go rushing out to if you missed it, you probably missed it for the short-term. but if lvs can get down $50, they might be poised for $55. >> let's hit pops and drops. drop here for apollo group, down

7%. tim? >> no semicharmed life for them. downgrade, enrollment is falling. that's right, third eye blind yet again. >> nice. >> drop here for jcpenney. down 1%. karen? >> i feel like it's ground hog day. we just did this yesterday. the same thing still applies. of all the retailers, jcpenney and kohl's at the bottom of the barrel. more bad news to come somewhere down the line when they report earnings. >> pop here for boeing, up 3%. guy? >> due coast to mike and keith last night talking about exactly this. buying boeing. that proved to be spot-on. i still like the defense names, lockheed martin had a big name today. boeing, you know there's going to be more negative headlines at some point. be careful here. lmt is my favorite in the space. >> fdo, josh. >> the way you want to look at this, money flows are going away from the discount retailers for the time being. they tend to be looking toward the luxury names to participate in what we can only call a

better consumer type of scenario. maybe avoid this one. look for something more exciting. >> pop for seagate. >> $3.6 billion, that beats the estimate from the street and their previous forecast of 3.5 by about 3%. they also said their gross margins were above 27%, which is where they had been guiding previously and i think this kind of demonstrates when you have stocks that are this cheap, what kind of upside right now. >> and we have a drop for lookalikes. call it a classic case of mistaken identity. police in virginia say they received three separate calls about a hungry lion roaming the streets. the ferocious feline turned out to be charles the monarch, a labradoodle who was shaved to look like the king of the jungle. the cat clone has generated more than 2500 facebook friends right now. >> what is that? >> a labrador/poodle.

>> we should bounce him out of the unyaoon. they're a commonwealth, right? that's -- i mean, you got to toughen up. new york, somebody would have shot the thing. >> somebody would have taken a bite out of it. >> wasn't it much smaller than a lion? >> who? >> the dog. >> i don't know what a -- >> they don't make lions this big, so -- >> i think they got a like from -- >> that's all i can say. not a poodle fan. sorry. coming up next, facebook event striking up speculation. traders separate fact from fiction. plus, could hewlett-packard be almost worth double its $15 price tag? a top-ranked analyst thinks so and he'll we veal why next. two stocks hitting new highs, but should you hold 'em or fold 'em? we'll find out next. she knows you like no one else. and you wouldn't have it any other way. but your erectile dysfunction - you know, that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right.

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burg shot down phone rumors. >> it's such a juicy thing to be able to say, other, they're building this phone. and that's why people have wanted to write that, but it's so clearly the wrong strategy for us. let's say we built a phone, theoretically, we're not, maybe we can get 10 million people to use it, 20 million, i mean, it doesn't move the needle for us. >> despite that comment, the rumor mill is still on fire about the possibility of a facebook phone. so, we ask, fact or fiction, facebook will announce a phone. karen, what do you say? >> i mean, enough said. he said -- >> he said no. >> i believe him. i think no, they're not going to announce a phone. i'm taking him at face value. ha-ha. >> oh! >> just thought of that. >> i think he's going to build a social network. that's going to be the big -- >> i mean, you want to get into that business, it's not a great business other than for two or three handset plaiters that really know what they're doing and they're honed their chops over the years. can't imagine how that would be a bullish development over the

longer term for facebook to get into that game. >> mike, what have you been noticing in terms of the options activity ahead of this event? >> it's interesting. activity in facebook is getting increasingly bullish. i don't know how he says selling 20 million phones wouldn't move the needle. that's $4 billion, that would double their revenue. that math doesn't really add up. and obviously apple has sold 200 million iphones already, so, you wouldn't need to do a fraction of what they did to move the needle for facebook. i'm not speck lafting that's what they're doing, but options traders have been getting bullish. to me, i actually might be incline to fade that here, because i think there's a lot of optimism built in here. i probably sell some upside calls on this one. >> let's move on. it was one of the worst performers in the s&p 500 last year. shares trading higher today at just around 15 bucks, but is hp actually worth double that? our next guest believes so. tony is a senior analyst at bernstein research.

he's on the "fast" line to explain. $29 price target and this is based on a sum of the tarts analysis, correct? >> we see hp broken up being worth $29. we also think that to the degree that hp can stabilize the company and earn $3.50, $4 a share going forward, you give that a seven to eight times multiple, you come up with a similar price target. >> does that imply that you see one of these two scenarios playing out in 12 months? >> i think the stabilization scenario is much more likely over the next 12 months. the way i see it is that meg whitman has outlined a multiyear plan. this year, fiscal '13, is a year of stabilization. they're expecting declines in revenue and decline in eps. chef has gone on the record saying next year, fiscal '14, she expects the company to actually grow. and i think that will be challenging for the company. and so, my belief, is, look,

either the current management team affects change and makes hp better over the next 12 to 18 months or i think management itself, the board or external forces may come in and say, look, you're unable to do it. this thing is too big, too unwieldly. you've prichb oven it's too dift to manage. we believe the sum of the parts, as i mentioned, somewhere around $30 a share collectively. >> it's karen, toni. you only see that hatching in the breakup scenario? >> look, i -- i think it's -- i think if hp were able to stabilize revenues and if they actually were able to show any kind of growth in fiscal '14, which, again, is the stated plan and i think you have to hair cut that somewhat. if they could show this is a company with $3.50 in earnings, which is the guidance going forward, growing, getting an

eight or nine multiple is not unrealistic and you get there. now, again, i think the plan b is, if they're not showing any progress towards that goal and revenue continues to slide, which has been the case for the last year and a half, then you are going to see impatience from, you know, whether it be interribly or external forces. >> right. and, in terms of dell, you did sort of a similar analysis for dell, another stock you cover, but you still say the breakup likelihood is higher in hp. >> absolutely. hp is a bigger conglomerate. they really have four large divisions, each of which could be, you know, an s&p 50 kind of company from a revenue perspective. dell is much simpler. it's a big pc business. it's about 70% of their rev newspapers and almost 70% of their profits and then a smaller enterprise business, which is servers, storage and services. and, so, splitting dell apart becomes more difficult because you'd really want to get rid of effectively the biggest part of

the company, which is pcs. with hp, you could get rid of pcs and printing and still have a very viable $50 billion plus company that is the majority of the cheap's profits. >> toni, great to speak with you. now, this is a rare scenario, where either way you've got upside. meg whitman is going to do something or she's out and the company splits. >> there's peek out there that say, you know, breaking up hp would destroy value. deutsche bank had a note out saying, first of all, significant sinner. s in terms of the different units. there's a lot of cross branding sinner. s. i don't think everyone says, ka karl saying to do this. >> i think the company has to get more desperate before that do something that drastic. i can't imagine them announcing anything like that yet. >> you think that alleged fraud bottom was not going to be the bottom of the stock? >> stock price, i couldn't tell you. we need a couple more quarters

of no momentum before they would resort to hiring the investment bank and actually considering doing it. >> and mike, options traders also bearish. >> yeah, well, there has been a lot of bullish activity but the big trades actually seem to be leaning the other way. we saw an example of that actually earlier today. the august '13 puts, somebody paid just under 80 cents. this stock actually hit $11.70 around its lows. but this person, since there's over 200 days to go could profit if the stock fell 10%. if they waited until expiration, that's 20% down from here. coming up next, a big prediction commodities in 2013. but does the xhod tips king himself agree? stay tuned to find out. and a mining insider, the former ceo of goldcorp tells us what it will take for gold stocks to go from laggers and leaders. stick with us. ♪

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i think that cultural commodities are going to continue to head higher. i think that's what's going on.

you have more demand from the emerging markets and you have more crop failures as a result of climate change. so, the result is we'll see corn, wheat and cattle going up. >> that was byron wien breaking down his trades for 2013. what does commodities king dennis gartman think of the prediction? dennis, great to see you. >> good to be seen. >> ag commodities will go higher and it's because of climate change. what do you say? >> well, first of all, the climate is changing, i don't think man has much to do with it, i think mother nature has everything to do with it. clearly we've had an extraordinary drought for the last several years in the midwest. if you continue to have this drought, we will continue -- we will have problems creating a large enough corn crop. but we are going to plant a huge amount of acreage this year. we don't have to get enough rain to end the drought, we just have

to get enough rain to get the crop through this year. we'll see what happens. byron will be absolutely right, if we put this crop into the ground and we continue get enough rain. there's plenty of fertilizer. we need rain to make grain. we'll see what's going on in april and may to see what the winter wheat crop is like. circumstances in kansas look very bad, but you don't destroy the wheat crop in january and february. let's see what happens in march, april and may. >> right. one of his other predictions is that gold would reach 1,900 bucks an ounce. what do you say? >> i think the trend in gold is from the lower left to the upper right. i think it's been a bull market. i've been bullish -- >> what number is at the upper right, dennis, for the year? >> i -- you know what? i've been in the business long enough to understand that if you can get the trend right, you've beaten almost everybody else. i have no idea what the number could be on the upside. you hear numbers $2,000, $5,000, right now, we're trading under $1,700, $1,650 or so.

i think we'll probably move higher. we'll be higher in six months than where we are right now but am i going to put a number on it -- if i do and i miss it by $5, i look like a fool. the best that you can do is get the trend right. the trend is from the lower left to the upper right. you want to own gold. and i know everybody gets tired of me saying it, but you want to own gold in yen terms. that's been so much better a trade than gold in dollar terms for the past 12 months. >> all right, dennis, great to see you. >> always good to be here. >> probably get a gold miner on to talk about gold market. that would be a great -- >> i wonder where we can find one. >> upper right hand side of the chart. >> let's move on. dennis, byron wien, they think gold is going to go higher, but the miners have not caught up. the etf down 18% over the past year. why is there such a disconnect? let's find out from rob mcewen, former ceo of goldcorp. speaking of miners. >> yeah, sure. >> got one in house. great to see you. >> that's what we do here on "fast money."

>> do you have a target for the price of gold in 2013? >> i have a longer term target of $5,000. and you can get to it pretty simply. the last cycle went from $40 to $800. 20-fold increase. apply it to $250 we had in 2001, you're at $5,000 really quickly. >> wow. >> this year, we'll probably push through $2,000. >> so, in terms of the disconnect between the miners performance and the metal's performance, there has been a theory floated about before institutions could only express their gold trade through investing in miners as opposed to a physically backed etf, which they now have an option of doing, so, therefore, the miners have been deprived of a historical investor base. what is your theory? >> the etf has contributed to an expansion of the ownership of gold and cannibalized to some degree the premiums, t s the go stocks have. the seniors have disappointed in terms of going over budget and behind schedule in delivering.

so, they've been penalized in the market. but there's a curious cycle and it's driven off the presidential election year. if you look at the xau, say going back to 1984 and bring it forward seven election cycles, you'll find the xau goes down during the election year, everyone's making a promise and wants to get elected. and in the year after, it full little recovers. so, in terms of timing, there's a little chart i have here you couldn't produce but i'll pass it around, now would be an ideal time to look at buying. >> one of the knocks on the gold mining sector among stock pickers is that there's a tendency when gold prices run up, all of a sudden there's a spot secondary or there's a convertible offering and it's almost a case where, hey, i could just own the gold, the gold's not going to dlut me, the goal is not going to get their hedges wrong. can you speak about that? how should we think about that if we are looking at gold mining stocks? >> you have to keep an eye on the balance sheet of the company

you're looking at. and determine whether they're going to be going back to the market. the smaller the company, the more often they are usually going back to the market. >> so, is that an argument for the larger cap names or not necessarily? >> they haven't shown discipline in terms of the issh shu issuan shares. i own 25% of my company. it's just all about, when you wake up in the morning, what are you thinking about? salary of share price? i don't take a salary, so, i'm going to make money the same way my shareholders do. >> rob, we have to leave it there. thank you for coming by. where do you play in gold? >> when i look at the pgms, the precious metals, platinum is where you want to invest right now. that's where there is demand. 83 million autos are going to be produced. this number is going up. there is a deficit in these metals this is where you can invest. for the people that talk about gold as an inflation edge, and

rob is right, this is why gold israllying. guys that are in the mining space and guys that are understanding where stock piles are will tell you that platinum is underserved and a real deficit there. this is where it would be investing, though gold goes higher and it goes higher because demand for gold is reserves. >> barclays forecasted that the deficit in palladium is how much the car industry uses every seven months. crazy. >> the people who stock piled it -- russia is probably out. they won't tell you. still a state secret. but palladium more than platinum is the trade. coming up next, under the radar sector. and is it time to break up with two stocks sitting at all-time highs? find out if now is time to sell the winners in hold 'em or fold 'em. woman: we're helping joplin, missouri, come back from a devastating tornado.

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why are you laughing? >> they have a new graphic, the ugly was --

>> no, the ugly -- that's the old graphic. same graphic. it's the same graphic. anyway. as you know, good, bad and ugly time with guy. >> yeah, sure. >> first up, the good. a couple months back, guy checked out two bio-pharma companies side by side. here's what he had to say. >> if i had to pick between the two today, right now, these price points, i would go celg. i think they still have more upside over the longer period of time. given the volume it's going to trade today and the move we've seen, i'll be inclined to pull the rip caord. >> great call. >> monster. i still -- i mean, it's -- still think it's the best name in the entire space. entire meaning bio-tech and big pharma. >> now, onto the bad. last month, guy was pumping the brakes on general motors. take a listen. >> how so? >> the problems with gm haven't been solved. it is effectively the same

company they were before the government bailed them out a couple years ago. though the stock has performed reasonly well over the last couple of months, those problems still exist. i would use this opportunity as a chance on a trading side to sell the stock. >> it's up 15% since then. >> sure. >> you know what you learn in life? >> what do you learn? >> you don't fight a land war in asia. never do that. doesn't work. and you don't -- >> you learned that in your own life? >> i went to school. at the liberal arts university, graduated from. we learned about things like that. i don't know what they taught you at that ivy league school. >> i have not been to war in asia yet. >> you don't take on finerman in, what's that thing we do? >> street fight. >> street fight. you never take her on. that's the end of that. >> how does that pertain to gm? >> that was me on the other side of finerman, who was very bullish in gm and it has since risen. i took the other side of that, which was incorrect. and then you had the cat on today, i think, on your show -- >> the cat. >> you mean the ceo?

>> outlined a pretty good -- >> whatever. >> market share in the states is going the wrong way. he says that will abate. >> this might be a motorcycle drive by. >> all right. >> where's the ugly? >> i don't know. what was that? wow. man, i'm jacked in that picture. >> yeah, that's right. >> are you wearing uggs with that? uggss down low? >> i got a lot down low. coming up next, the currency market braces for tomorrow's -- >> "price is right." nice. >> we've got the play ahead of the meeting in your money motion trade. stay tuned.

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with the euro dropping against the u.s. dollar, the ecb is set to meet for the first time this year, so, how should you be trading the common currency? let's bring in amelia bourdeau. and aimee ymelamelia, what's go happen? >> i think tomorrow they are going to stay on hold. the european economy is stagnating. the pmis have been a little bit stronger recently, but they're not strong altogether. why? the main reason it's going to

remain on hold tomorrow for the ecb is because risk premium have lessened. there's been a risk-rally in the currency market and equities going on and that gives the ecb some time, as well as the fact that the peripheral bond yeel have been coming in lower. that's a good thing. and also, if they do cut rates ahead, which i think they will towards the middle of the year, that's going to turn deposit rates. they have to be careful and wait for more depolice station risk to emerge before they decide to cut rates. >> so, you are looking to sell euro u.s. dollar. walk us through the trade. >> euro is being sold against crosses of commodity currencies that is weighing on u.s. euro dollar. so, i want to enter a short position at 1.31. i'm targeting 1.2850. i'm going to put a stop up at 1.3210. >> thanks amelia. >> thank you. >> bio-tech stocks s&p. should you buy into it higher

here? karen, you're in this. >> i just can't sleep at night waiting for some phase three drug trial so, i have the xpi and ivb. we've had it for a long time on consolidation in the space and hanging onto it. >> i'm in that same index trade, but we did turn up two names that don't get talked about. they are more in the mid-cap variety. the first is regeneron. the fundamental story backs up the price action here. rev newspapers have quadrupled. they just got a brand new approval. everything is headed in the right direction for a move above $200. mylan, more of a pharma, but still the same idea. this thing looks like a home run. there is no resistance past that point and it looks like it could break through very quickly. >> yeah, and just, we'll talk about celg one more time. they have a tremendous, for any company, they have a tremendous balance sheet, especially for bio-tech. and they dominate their space.

they have market shirr in some of their drugs that are north of 90%. still works here. i know it's had a tremendous run. people want to knock it on valuation. i don't think you should. >> all right, coming up next hour, cramer is looking for the next big thing in bio-tech. a double dose of exclusives. first up, the ceo of acorda and the ceo of charles leariver. that's coming up, top of the hour. first move tomorrow when we come back. at 1:45, the aflac duck was brought in

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