his pay will be cut in half. the trading loss cost the bank more than $6 billion last year and true sanctions from federal regulators. jpmorgan's board, the country's biggest bank said it would cut dimon's pay to $11.5 million for 2012. consisting of $1.5 million in salary and restricted stock rewards of $10 million. that's less than half last year's pay of $23 million, which made him the highest paid chief executive of any of the country's megabanks that year. now, you can argue over what the numbers are or what the numbers should be. this has been done, of course, to death, all day today and i'll sure you'll read more about it in tomorrow's papers. but one thing that cannot be debated the dimon's leadership. he is the chairman of this company and he knows that regardless of who is to blame for this loss, ultimately, the buck stops with him. the board looked at the story, acknowledged the changes that were made in response to what happened. but also noted that despite the size and scope of the bank, the ceo takes responsibility.

and dimon did just that, without complaint or two test and probably cost him millions of dollars in compensation. if only our elected officials would take the same kind of accountability and responsibility. instead, we get a steady diet of d.c. finger pointing on nearly every issue. sometimes it can take a lesson or two from wall street. that will do it for us tonight. see you tomorrow. stay with cnbc. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. big drop for stocks. why one veteran market watcher believes stocks may soon see a major pull back. gary schilling joins us live. apple downgrade. we hear from a leading analyst who slashed its ratings on apple. why he thinks the iphone can't save the stock. and, we've got your broading pass to a street fight. a look at whether boeing can leave its dreamliner woes

behind. let's go to our top story. let's get both sides of the bank trade here as we heard from bank of america, citi and morgan stanley in the days to come. tim, we start with you. buyer or seller? >> i'd be a buyer. and morgan stanley looks a lot better. goldman's evaluation call -- they proved they've been able to run the ship more efficiently. you're in the sweet spot. so, goldman and morgan, they've had a great opportunity to get their comp under control. a lot of flexibility. they've been cutting costs and they see an increase, waiting for fik, waiting for a real push in the equity capital markets. these numbers by goldman were fantastic. but again, as we said last night and kudos to guy, who, i think has been all over this trade, this is where you fade it. this is your burst and this is where you need to get out. >> you want to fade, too? >> i do. i'm not particularly bearish on the sector. i missed this rally and it's been fabulous if you got in am sopt point in q-4 last year. but to me, it's kind of a beta

chase. i think when you look at the sectors that got demolished, just look at home builders, for instance. they made new crisis highs. they are trading above where they were trading in 2008 or so. the banks, there's so much wood to chop. people are going after it. they see citigroup still down 80% from the highs. bank america, dramaticallyhighs. >> wood to chop? are you handy with an axe? >> i could be. >> karen? >> whether they trade down the next few days, i don't know. but i like the space still. i think that, you know, there wasn't any great surprise in the jpmorgan earnings out today. but everything seems to be working. but the one thing that isn't working yet that could is interest margin. we've seen so much compression there, obviously due to rates being where they are. if we see any growth in the economy and rates start to move, that is a potentially a lot of juice for these earnings. >> right. >> and to me, yes, they've rallied a long way from the fourth quarter, but still, they

are so cheap. >> i was going to say, where do you come in on valuation here? it's cheap to its peers, its chart is fantastic. the valuation doesn't say sell. but -- >> i think it says hold. i mean, you -- the valuation in terms of p.e. is really not expensive, tangible book, we're so used to things trading below tangible book. maybe a little higher. it doesn't seem to me like, wow, you are really paying through the nose. you're not. bank of america, you're getting it well below tangible book value, citibank, same thing. so, i'm still staying with the -- staying with the bet for sure. >> so, a buyer. you? >> i'd be a buyer, but specifically goldman sachs. on this desk, we talk about levels in the name. it was 119, it was 130. now it's 140. if it holds this level, it's 150. it has not disappointed. this bank has outperformed 99% of the space. but another name that goes after that private wealth section of

the population is first republic, frc. that's a name, under radar, outperforms. >> won't they be more impacted by net interest margins staying compressed? >> i don't think so. >> don't see that expand? >> i think that these guys, this whole space, are going after the wealth, the people who have the wealth in this country, this is what goldman sachs is going, jpmorgan is going after, a lot of the little banks. and they already have the client list, the first republics. >> back to jpmorgan, the thing that i think people -- i'm surprised people don't jump out on a day like today with these numbers and the kind of growth theying are showing and you get this public outlash. this is not how i feel, but they have been one of the greatest beneficiaries of this housing bubble. and the helping or the bailout of the wall street banks has done nothing but make jpmorgan a machine making money going forward. yeah, they had a $700 million write down in terms of the settlement with fannie, that is

something people didn't expect. the trade off with that, in everything they are doing, is a home run. so, they come out of this looking great. and, you know, i think they deserve to look great because they didn't need the bailout and they didn't have their hand out there. there should be a lot of people that i'm surprised that aren't yelling and screaming that the banks are never looking -- have never looked better, those that have survived this. >> with the help of then baings today, the s&p 500 closed at a five-year high. let's bring in gary shichling who has served on staff at the san francisco fed. gary, always great to see you. >> how are you doing? >> and we're doing well, but your forecast is dire. you are expecting a major drop in the s&p 500, correct? >> well, yeah, but not immediately. right now, we're in a risk on trade situation, because you have what i call the grand disconnect. the money is being pumped out the doors by central banks. investors are only looking at that. they couldn't care less about

the economies on the ground which are in recession, like the euro zone, the uk, japan, china delevera deleveraging, u.s. limping along. they couldn't care less. and the other thing here is the zeile for yield. that's why junk bonds are up 20% last year. but investment grade only about 5%. this condition, i think, will continue until you get some kind of shock that returns investors to the reality of weak to recessi recessionary economies. at that point, you go to the risk off. and that's where i think you find that earnings with a global recession and stocks are vulnerable. >> sure. you are predicting a 42% drop in the -- >> no, not 42. i'm saying -- the way i get there, i've got, at some point here, some four quarters, i don't know where it will start, $80 operating earnings on the s&p and bear market bottoms have averaged about 13, multiply that, that's 104, 29% decline

from here. >> but gary, first of all, if you look -- i don't know where you are getting $80 a share -- >> well, i'll tell you -- >> hold on. but when i look at the bear market bottom of march of 09, when we went down to 663, they were trading at ten times. a bear market multiple of ten is extreme. that was -- >> no, i said 13. i said 13, that's the average of the post-war market bottoms. 13. >> well, you're an economist and a highly decorated one, so, to give you your due. the recession you're talking about, the global recession. where is this? the imf is talking about 3.6% global gdp growth. we're not even close. >> you have it in the euro zone, you have it in the uk, japan. you have deceleration in china. the u.s. is slow -- >> it's not even close. >> gary, what you are saying is the average gdp growth is going to be 2%, which is lower than

3.3% that is needed to hold unemployment rate steady, direct? so, in a year, we are going to see the unemployment rate pretty dramatically higher. >> well, that's right. if you look at the trade-off between unemployment and economic growth, it takes 3.3% real gdp growth to keep the unemployment rate stable. that's over the total post-world war ii period. at 2%, you would have a chronic rise of the unemployment rate by a little over one percentage point a year. >> mr. shilling, steve grasso. where do i go? do i go with utilities? where do i play this? and where is the timing? right after the debt ceiling debate? >> yeah, i sure wish i knew on the timing. i think right now, the way we're structuring sug sessigestions i portfolios, yeah, risk on but with caution. i would go for -- i would go for more defensive stocks, utilities, dividend payers,

consumer staples, things like that. we also like natural gas, north american energy. there are other special things, we're short the yen. but it changes dramatically. >> right. >> if and when you get the shock and you move to risk off, because when you don't want to own equities. >> no surprise, all the sectors you mentioned so far are very defensive. but at the same time, you see opportunity in small luxury names. why is that? >> yeah, that's the kind of thing that people even when they're stressed, they want to buy, whether it's a fancy bottle of booze , imported beer, something in a small box, maybe it's only cuff links, but it's in the blue box -- >> and that's just the desk right here, gary. >> blue box? >> you look for example at used merchandise stores, their stocks, they are growing in double digits. there's a lot of things that suggest that maybe three-quarters of the country still thinks we're in recession, and they are. real wages are declining, real per capita gdp is declining and

those people are trying to treatment themselves to the best they can afford and that may not be much. >> right. gary, we're going to leave it there. thank you for coming on the show. we appreciate it. >> you're welcome. >> dan, you're the bear on the desk. would you agree with even mr. shilling? >> i agree with him. and one of the results of the cliff negotiation that we had that concluded at the beginning of the year is, i think people that are bearing the brunt of the tax increases, think on really marginal level are going to see to pull back in spending. and i think tiffany's preannouncement last week, they didn't give guy danidance yet, it's going to be interesting. i'm going to -- i suppose that we're going to see the first half is slightly weak and that could lead to some worries about recession. >> okay. let's move on and talk ebay here. it is moving higher in the aftermarket session after posting earnings. jon fortt joins us now with the latest. jon? >> yeah, melissa. ebay's ceo taking a bit of a victory lap now. let's look at the numbers they

did in the quarter. revenue with $3.99 billion. a little bit above expectations. eps, 70 cents above the 69. the guidance came in light, but it looks like wall street is willing to shrug that off, because overall, the numbers are so strong. i'm point out marketplace was up 16% revenue. paypal up 24%. gsi up 10%. and right now, they're taking up mobile and the potential that has for the rest of this year. to do quite a bit, $20 billion in total mobile payment volume in 2013, melissa. >> all right, jon, thank you so much. the call is going on right now, so, any developments, jon will bring them to us. in the meantime, the knock on ebay from the analyst community is that it's a great company, except its valuation looks pretty full. you like amazon and that valuation looks beyond full. >> overflowing. exactly. if you look at it, you could have missed it based on valuation for 100 points or missed it indefinitely if you look at amazon. amazon, to me, is that web services.

it is the fulfillment centers, but it's not overbought. when you look at ebay, it is overbought. so, i would wait on ebay and i would still be a buyer of amazon but wait for a little bit of a pull back. use 260. coming up next, the biggest movers, but first, the latest buzz behind reports that buyers are buying two of hewlett-packard's businesses and what it may mean for the stock and a leading analyst downgrapds apple. why the iphone can spur new grout. that and much more when we come back. this is $100,000.

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welcome back. hewlett-packard, the stock popping on reports that its received an interest from potential buyers for its eds

business. hp paired some of those gains after it was reported that the ceo meg whitman is not willing to sell yet. what do you make of these rumors? >> we've all talked about the name, talked about it on the sum of the parts issue. tony put on a nice piece that really started to get another catalyst as it started to run out of steam there. but i would say that, we're talking during the break, it depends on what they're going to sell these pieces for and how much they can narrow that gap between what they paid and what they can get for it now. at a certain point, you have to start looking at shedding nonperforming assets. >> yeah, depends on what price. you made that point. if it wasn't a good price, she's going to say no, not yet. >> what a disaster. the whole chapter is -- >> in they spent billions of dollars moving away from the pc-centric business that's been a dying business. we saw the pc data in the last week or so showing that lenovo and acer are nipping on their heels.

they just go ahead of dell. so, in some wakes, you cannot let go of the businesses that you think have potential for greater growth, especially as they are in their fifth restructuring in five years, it seems like. >> let's talk shares of apple. recovering 4% today as investors scramble to get out of the stock. here's what tom demark said yesterday on "fast." tom, let's be clear here. you are saying that the bottom is in. >> yeah, bottom is in today or tomorrow. >> can't be much clearer than that. joining us now is a man who made that call. let's welcome andy hargreave. great to have you. >> thanks for having me. >> yours is the second downgrade as we said, in a month. do you feel like you are a little bit late to this party in terms of the change in sentiment in apple? >> well, yeah, i mean, the timing wasn't ideal, certainly, i mean, it's a thesis, though, that we've been working on for several months, to be quite

honest, and talking about it a little bit. and, you know, i wish i could write a little faster, we might have been out a couple days earlier, but at the end of the day, it doesn't really change our long-term view. this wasn't the quarter call, it wasn't something that i thought about overnight. it's a call on the longer term profit growth, potential of the business, and, the price doesn't change that a whole lot. >> are you surprised how long it took wall street to come around to the ideas that perhaps margins are peaking, perhaps average selling prices would be under pressure? you were in that camp, as well, so, i'm just wondering in terms of the psychology, why do you think it's happened just in the past month or so, where people are saying, you know what, maybe it's not the infallible company we all thought it was? >> you know, i can't really speak for other people, i mean, for us, like i said, it's been a little bit of a work in progress. our numbers, especially as you look out into fiscal '14, have been below the street in awhile. we become more and more

concerned about saturation of the high end of the market. and as we've gathered more evidence of that through carrier checks, through supply chain checks, you know, the evidence built enough for us where we were almost forced to pull 2 tr the trigger. >> i don't see how margins can't be under pressure, because the growth in emerging is certainly going to be a lower price point, but they've set themselves up for this ecosystem. >> yeah. >> the growth is still there. there's 30 million smartphones in india in a country of 1.1 billion people. china today announced payment plans for people that want to buy apple products and give them a layaway aspect so they may be able to afford products that are more expensive. my point is, at some point, should we not care about margins? because this is going to be an apple growth story that can continue, but it has to -- it has to take a move downward in terms of its product -- customer profile. >> yeah, yeah, i've never really been of the view that you should pay attention to margins on a

percentage basis. i think our business is about figuring out what the company is going to earn in profits on an absolute basis. and the problem is, when you look at the market, the smartphone market and the tablet market is starting to break up this way. all of the profit dollars are at the high end. that's where apple's been, that's why they're so successful, wildly successful. and if you start to think about moving into those low end markets, there just isn't profit dollars to capture there. so, you have to start thinking about other ways to drive growth. and at least at this point, we don't see any real obvious avenues where we can look, say, there's a really good growth opportunity. >> in terms of apple's valuation, it's already trading at a discount. i wonder how you view where that valuation should be longer term. we had an analyst on yesterday who cut his price target who essentially said it should probably trade along the lines eventually of that or a rim or a nokia, in other handset -- you

know, that's one side of the spectrum. w where do you come out on the valuation? >> i'm probably a little bit more optimistic than that. we've been of the view for seven years here that this is largely a software company and the monetization engine is hardware. they have 90% retention rates because of the operating system. we don't think those things change. i don't think it will ever trade at, you guys were talking about hp and dell, those multiples, but it probably does trade at microsoft or maybe a little bit below. and you put five times on our numbers, at least, and you're going to get around $440. people want to be a little bit more optimistic, you can get some upside to that, but that's what we're thinking about. >> andy, thank you for your time. >> thanks for having me. >> karen, where do you come out on the valuation? two analysts two days in a row that say maybe a cisco or microsoft valuation is more appropriate for apple. >> i'm long. i still think there's growth

there. i a i agrgree with him on grossn dollars, not percentage that i look at. so, i am long. >> listen, this is a $200 billion revenue company. so, the expectations that it was going to continue to grow at the rate it was doing, if you look at the earnings in the q-4, actually, their fiscal q-1, the holiday selling season that they're going to report next week, okay, they doubled their earnings from 2011 to 2012. so, here, all of a sudden now, earnings expectations are supposed to be down 3%. they have not had a down year in the fiscal q-1 since 2003. expectations got dire, okay? or dower, however you want to say it. >> both. >> they got that. and that guy's got a hard job. i woke up this morning hoping the stock traded $465 because i wanted to buy it and that guy has to go to his clients, suggesting to reduce to market weight or whatever. it's a tough job. >> sure. >> as a trader, you have to play the sentiment shifts and we might have just had one. >> mike, in the options pits, what was it like today? somebody pointed out to me yesterday that ski went to one, upside and downside was about

equal in terms of risk, too. >> yeah, i mean, it's really interesting. so, going into their earnings right now, the options market is implying the stock is going to move more than 7%. that's about 40% higher than the average move for this stock. to tim's point, i'm sure everybody in india wants an iphone, but when per capita income is 1200 bucks a year, it's not going to happen anymore than buying a lexus. i just don't see that as a growth story. you have to sell something a whole lot cheaper. i think the options markets are feeling skeptical. the stock prices reflected that, too. from my perspective, i think the stock might be overdone here in terms of the downside, so, actually, i'd be a better puts seller and play it for a bit of a bounce, maybe it gets up to $550. >> people are making that argument about china, though, and the rise in the middle class has been and is a growth story. >> two things going on here. per capita income may be 1500 bucks, but this is skewed. middle class.r i can't dispute that they're

going to be able to take out lexus sales, but this isn't a lexus purchase. the point is clear. these guys can't grow at the same rate. but they have plenty of room to grow. it's why i think samsung is a better play. they have better position at the upper end and lower end. they will dominate the lower end. buy apple to $525, take some profits and wait. >> let's hit pops and drops. we kick it off with a pop for valero. >> this was a space, the refiner space was loved at the year end. so, it was loved all last year, so, if you are a manager, you wanted to show it on the books come year end. we thought you were going to be dumping them january 1st. they dumped the rest of the space, they didn't dump valero. i'm perplexed. i think they're going to be reshorted. >> dell, dropped 4%. karen? >> this is a classic buy the rumor, sell the news. yesterday's closing price reported $13 or $14 deal for dell. it just doesn't make sense. i wouldn't buy it.

>> all right, the vix down 1%. dan, to five and a half year lows? >> it's just acting the on silt here. but if you look at on the future's curve, march is trading almost to 18. that's where people see risk with the debt ceiling. >> drop for gp, down 4%. tim? >> we got news about the european sales, which are dismal, but i think people are expecting this and i think people are overdone this. if that alone was the news, i would have told you to buy this dip. after the bell, they tell you that jpmorgan and citibank are arranging to sell shares, i don't know the amount at this point. they have 300 billion left to go, 300 million shares, and that's a lot of stock. let's wait. >> drop here for netflix, down 4%. mike? >> so, a court ruling that the u.s. postal service was improperly favors netflix is one down side. and probably they're going to announce a $7 million loss, a lot of the issues buying content. it's a valuation story. if you believe, that's okay.

i don't. i wouldn't buy it. >> and a pop here for moisturizing jeans. >> steve? >> nice. the secret to smooth jeans might just be in your pants. whoa. wrangler is releasing jeans with moisture iz moisturizer. they come in three flavors. something called smooth legs, apparently fights cellulite. they go for $135. that's the price you pay -- >> my butt looks a lot thinner on that commercial. does wonders for me. >> i didn't realize you couldn't just take cream and apply it yourself. what do you do, dan? >> well, i wouant to know more about grasso's butt double. >> all right. coming up next, boeing shares retreat on mechanical concerns. one stock, two opinions. and we get the dish on chipotle. where the stock may go from here. and later on, barbara marcin

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japan's two leading airlines grounded their fleets of the boeing 787 today after one of the passenger jets made an emergency landing. this is the latest incident in a string of recent malfunctions, so, is the dreamliner turning into a nightmare for boeing? we have a street fight. tim is the bull, dan is the bear. they're ready to take each other on. you have 30 seconds. the clock will start running. tim, kick it off. >> i'm always the bull here. but at the end of the day, these planes are still safe. what? no baby yet. wait until we get into this. this is really about a story of cash flow generation and production growth and visibility into the air space, which is a very cyclical industry but the wind is at their back. with all the bad news, they've fallen maybe 5%. this is not a big move. if this is a company that at the end of the day is still considered to be flying safe planes, i don't think this is a big deal. at 15 times earnings, i wouldn't say it's a deep value play, but this is a company that's seeing significant news against it, you know, at the end of the day. do it one more time for those at

home that are playing and it's really a good place to actually get involved in the stock. this is a battery issue. they will figure it out. i'm not making light of air safety. this will not drive people ail way. the cycle and the backlog is very good. >> jump in bear. >> at the end of the day, there's 50 of these dreamliners have been shipped to date. those two airlines that grounded them have half of those. they have a big p.r. problem. as a flier, when i book a flight, i'm not looking at the type of airplane i'm in and i will be, right now. i want to make sure i'm not on a dreamliner, okay? they've had five incidents in two weeks. this is largery a p.r. problem. i don't disagree with tim. >> the stock hasn't moved. >> my time. my time. >> i'm out. i'm out. >> so, at the end of the day, you mentioned the valuation at 14 times. they are expected to grow 4% this year. 20% in 2014. that is taking into account some pretty serious dreamliner sales. if they have to go back and they have to -- >> how much time does this guy

get? >> i was waiting for the -- >> feels like that, tim, when you're not talking. >> i know. >> can i finish? >> at the end of the day, this stock has moved from 79 to 74 and change. this is not a major move. >> all right. >> jan 30 you get earnings. >> save us. thank you. the late buzzer. all right. karen, where do you stand on boeing? this is classic headline risk. you see the airplane this morning with the emergency chutes coming out of it with passengers sliding down with 787 plastered on the side of the plane and that is -- >> why isn't the stock down 10%? >> i don't think you need to step in right here. >> i think, why do you need to step in right here? it's only down a few percent. >> you don't. >> if it were down 15% -- >> then you might? >> i might step in, say, this is really overdone. >> who said step in and buy it today? >> i thought you did! i thought you were the bell. >> the bull does not say

stampede in. >> what does the bull say? >> you're buzzed again. grasso? >> no one said go and buy a 5% -- >> you were the bull. >> half of the dreamliner population, what do you call it, fleet, is grounded. so, you can't buy it just yet. i think you have to wait here. >> until it's all grounded? >> yeah, exactly. i want to see that flush out, and i think at the end of the day, everyone probably ail agrees on that. >> by the way, there's no i in the word tim for taking the bull case. all right, let's move on here. chipotle sinking 6% on the announcement that its fourth quarter earnings will take a hit from higher food costs. mike, you noticed unusual activity here. >> this thing traded many multiples of the average daily volume. one of the notable bullish trades i saw was somebody that bout the 295 300 call spread. they paid 65 cents for this thing and this is over 600 of these traded, so, obviously an

institution alibier. a nice, cheap, levered way to make a bullish bet that the stock is going to be up by 4% by friday. thought that was interesting. also interesting that the puts are trading at a huge premium. so, if you would rather be long this thing, probably the calls are the way to go rather than just being in the stock. >> okay. you catch more options action every friday, 5:00 eastern time. let's look ahead. take a look at what could be one of the biggest movers tomorrow. onfo jon fort ht has a preview. >> at the end of the day tomorrow, intel is going to report earnings and question is, what's happened to the pc? right until the second half of 2012, intel was able to thrive, despite the fact that consumers in developed markets like the u.s., western europe just weren't buying many computers. bolstering intel was the fact that companies were buying new l laptops and servers and families in emerging markets were buying pcs as they moved into the middle class. today, that trend is in question. intel is expected to report earnings per share, 45 cents on revenue of $13.76 billion.

that's revenue down 2.5% from last year. in the near term, overall performance of the pc client group is key to understanding the overall environment. but for the stock, the company's full year guidance, which we expect to hear, probably matters more so i'll be watching that. longer term, analysts need better evidence that intel really can gain ground in tablets and smartphones where so far, chip giant just hasn't made a dent. back to you. >> thank you for that, jon fortt. the other issue is inventory. that's been rising as a percent of revenues since the third quarter of last year. and that is -- they have to scale back production in order to cut back the inventory. >> they are so poorly positioned in the tablet space, tabletting are destroying laptops right now. if you talk about emerging market growth, it's again, back to that apple story. it's as a much lower gross margin. intel guided gross margins to 57%. that's the lowest since q-3

2009. i don't think it's a good press. it just rallied 10% off the november lows, but it's kind of in no man's land. you really need to get a sense how they are positioned. don't forget, they are looking for a new ceo. in november, their current ceo announced retirement in may. coming up next, one of the biggest questions this year. how do you find next? barbara marcin does this every day. where she's finding the most upside. that's next. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade.

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barrens declaring 2013 the year of income investing. so, where are the best places to find it? let's bring in barbara marcin now. you outperformed the s&p 500 last year and so far in 2013. great track record so far. in terms of themes for 2013, what are they? people are so fixated on the fiscal cliff and a difficult period in the first quarter. >> yes, i think you have overall sort of mediocre valuation of the overall stock market and i think, though, that, you know, everyone's search for income is really pointing you at higher

yielding stocks that have a good chance to grow those earnings and cash over the longer term. i think if you can find companies that have a good cash component to their earnings, pay good dividend, where management really manages the business and the components of the business, and that are selling at a good valuation, i think that you h e have -- this is a way to get sort of income out of the equity market but i wouldn't just buy equities for income. >> just to get specific, it sounds odd the way you just finished off on that line, but i held out your group for the long egs ti est time, but i'm waiting when to get back in. would that fit your description for you? >> absolutely. it's a company with a good dividend, good cash component to earnings and can grow those earns some what over time. it would be. >> when you think about managing your fund, do you have a target hurdle rate that you look to, to get to, in a more fixed income way or do you think about it more of an equity like it could be more volatile? >> i'm really looking for total return. and, so, really, that's drefkting me towards stocks that

can grow their earnings in cash longer term. but that pay a good current return. so, you know, those are companies like, for example, international paper, which has been a very good investment in the last year or so, which i think has a lot more going for it. the company's really managing its portfolio really well. tremendous cash generator. sold off non-core assets, reinvesting that cash with an increasing dividend. tremendous growth outside the united states. so, it has made investments and acquired a majority of indian paper mill operation, has an investment in russia, has a joint venture in china. just recently bought a container board operation in brazil. this is a company that will really grow its cash and earnings and that growth is going to ramp up. but selling about 11 times earnings with a 3% dividend yield. you have a really good total return picture. >> barbara, that leads me to a question about the international stuff. you're obviously invested in multinationals that are there.

are you investing in places like brazil, where you have fantastic div stories, turkey is a 6% div market or the eem, if you are investing in emerging markets, so, what are your thoughts? >> yes in the dividend growth fund, we access growth outside the united states really through multinationals, where we think they make smart investments. we don't invest similarly in brazilian companies. generally a large company that's had the good sense to invest its cash as well as pay a dividend. >> and for all the picks here that you brought to us, black rock, pfizer, international paper, would you be comfortable at these current valuations for people out there who are looking to put money to work right now? >> yes, i would. i think they are all good total return for the next couple of years as we wait out the fiscal cliff issues. >> could be awhile. barbara, thank you for stopping by. >> thank you. >> barbara marcin. in terms of multinationals, tim -- to play brazil, i'm curious because you asked that question. who do you go to? >> i would say gm, which is

paying a good dividend yield. i always like vodaphone, some of the telecom guys. these are guys paying massive dividend yields. vodaphone is going to continue to pay. a place i'd look. >> and grasso, you are tempted to go back at this point? >> i've been waiting to get back in. you look at the yield, over 5%, so, that's a name i'm looking at. but still waiting on the debt ceiling talks. no one is going to be spared by this. if the market comes in, i'm going to get a better price. coming up, we tell you whether to roll the dice on two stocks hitting new highs. but first, from blackjack to coach potatoes, jane wells has what is shaking on the west coast. jane? >> hey, melissa. we're going to decide whether to put it all on black or red. one company in the red over facebook's announcement. and why today is my favorite day of the year, when we come back.

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reach one customer at a time? ♪ or help doctors turn billions of bytes of shared information... ♪ into a fifth anniversary of remission? ♪ whatever your business challenge, dell has the technology and services to help you solve it. from mobile devices to medical marijuana we have you covered in the west coast wrap. let's go to jane wells in los angeles. hey, jane. >> hey, melissa. first up, put it all on black, because vegas stocks, baby, have been in the black big time this

year. to date. now we learn 11 casino companies including mgm have applied for gaming licenses in massachusetts, as that state is allowing a handful of vegas-style casinos including one of them in the greater boston area. steve wynn last year failed to woo box borrow residents for his plans for a casino. now, he's offering to buy one on the mystic river and he is competing against caesars for that. >> steve grasso, you've been in the casino name. what is your fave? >> i've been waiting for a pull back to buy wynn. it is overbought here. i'm waiting but i don't know if i'm going to get the chance. i might see 130 before then but i would be a buyer in the teens, 118 down to 11 a. >> jane? >> all right. julia borsen called it yesterday. when face tbook announced its n, whatever it is, she suggested that yelp might suffer because

people would rather get restaurant recommendations from friends than strangers. and sure enough, today yelp shares were down more than 1%. >> tim? >> we talked about that, in fact, you got in my grill last night. >> i didn't get in anybody's grill. >> i thought the release had to be so sky opening that it was going to seize the death nel for guys like google -- not google, but yelp and guys that are part of the social network where people can do this on facebook. >> all right jane. >> all right, finally, it is my favorite day of the year, january 16th, today is national do nothing day. which is what they do 365 days a year in washington. but we're big on doing nothing in l.a. it's a time as a nation to do nothing, which is what i discovered, exactly, what these people do during commercial breaks. >> no, actually, that was during the show, jane. that was during the show. yeah. we do that. >> we did nothing. no, you were -- look at that. look at that face.

that's not only doing nothing, that's ticked off about it. >> you caught us, jane. you caught us. >> okay. >> jane wells. >> thank you for playing. >> thank you. coming up next, where to find the biggest bang for your buck. we go down under. and we play a round of good, bad and ugly with dan nathan. can he take the heat? more "fast" straight ahead.

men at work. >> that means only one thing. could you best bet in the currency market be down under? the aussie dollar has risen 1.5% against the u.s. dollar so far this year. let's bring in todd gordon. you want to be risk on if you are going to play this trend. >> exactly right. i think central banks are easy and the past of least resistance is higher. australian dollar is poised to break out. we have some enmroim data tonight, 7:30 on the east coast. expectations are pretty low and any number that comes in around expectations would solidify that the rba stays on hold next month. a major export of australia is iron ore. the chinese economy is obviously a major and inner ene ener -- f

iron ore. it looks that the fundamentals are in place for an aussie breakout. >> give us your levels, todd. >> sure. the australian dollar, technically speaking, is facing a breakout, 1.06. this is a range that's been in place for almost a year and a half. so, 1.06 is the entrillion on a weekly break. you want to take profit up around 110. >> all right, todd, thank you for that. todd gordon of aspen. and more money in motion every friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. tim, in terms of the iron ore, we saw big spikes in the price in fourth quarter in china. >> yeah, how about a vej mite sandwich, too? you have big chinese data coming out, but iron ore, goldman has that note out. watch that chart. >> let's play a little good, bad and ugly and tonight -- stars dan nay tan. first up, dan said to keep an

eye on yahoo!. take a listen. >> the mighty goldman sachs reinitiated the stock with a buy of $22, 12-month price target. they say the sum of the parts is much greater. i actually agree. implied volatility is cheap. >> good call. shares of yahoo! jumped 29% since september. so, what do you do? >> yeah, this is a stock-specific story here. a lot of things going on. they have new management in there. they are making a lot of changes and just as recently as the other day, yesterday, actually, there's some news that ali baba may go public, which will help them monetize that stake. it was sum of the parts thing, so -- >> go on. >> you have to take a pause at 20. see what the q-4 earnings look like. >> now, onto the ugly. on the day that cisco reported its fourth quarter earnings, dan made a bearish prediction. here's what he said.

>> they guided forward in line. they said, europe is weak and going to be weak for some time. they said china and asia is actually okay. i'd question that a little bit and we know europe is going to stay weak. i would expect people to take some profits here. >> all right, but cisco has popped, about 22% since then. dan? >> yeah, well, this is -- i was kind of talking by book here. i was long some put spreads and with defined risk. bull here's a good example and karen and i were talking about this earlier. it's really hard to press some of these old tech names that are not growing but they have a dividend, cisco pays 2.5%, microsoft pays 3.5%, intel pays 4%. at some point, like our previous guest just mentioned, they look like fixed next securities in a way. they are low growth, they have a good yield and if you catch them right you can make some good money. >> the good thing about it, you didn't lose your shirt in that trade. you wore it in every one of those segments. >> where do you rate the shirt?

>> i would tell you -- >> i like the shirt. >> i have two of them. >> that leaves only one thing. >> all right. coming up next on "mad money," should you be scooping up shares of joy global now that things are looking up in china? don't miss cramer's exclusive with the ceo. plus, jim plays am i diversified? it's all coming up at the top of the hour. first move tomorrow when we come back. stay tuned.

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