all right. the two big stocks we've been following, apple and netflix, each out with earnings. look at netflix, up 30% now. they reported a profit of 13 cents when a loss of 13 cents was expected. a lot of moving parts and pieces to the apple numbers. the fast money guys will go over those. stock down 5 3/4 percent now.

will that set the tone tomorrow? >> two huge moves in technology. all right. that is so -- that does it for "the closing bell." thank you for joining us. it's been a pleasure. >> mandy with me tomorrow. "fast money" starts right now. we'll see you tomorrow. new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. tonight's top three trades. apple, 425. that's jeff's target for the stock this year. he joins us exclusively to break down the latest results from the tech giant. starbucks, is there an earnings rally percolating? one stock, two opinions. and china head fake. is china really on the mend and what does it mean for commodities from copper to crude. first, straight to our top story, apple after the bell. a number of disappointments in the numbers in terms of units, iphones came in light. ipads beat, macs beat by a million units. the ipod beat on guidance, lackluster in terms of revenues. and what they see in terms of

gross margins would be a sequential decliquarter on quar as well as year on year. >> at the end of the day, it's not the disaster i think a lot of bears were probably hoping for when you see this flush. and in some ways, like we said before, the smart money, if you want to say the big money, has been hip to this. september 21st, when they introduced the iphone 5, i think a lot of people, a lot of big investors, thought this is about as good as it gets. now you have a stock down over 30% from that standpoint. and the problem i see here, it's in a lot of weak hands here at $500. it's retail that's left. i think big money has sold what they have to sell. i don't think you're going to see a flush tomorrow morning. i think this thing probably finds a floor somewhere around here, 485, 470, i don't think it gets -- >> do you buy weak hands? i feel like weak hands went when it was at 705 down to 419. >> yeah, i think the retail investor -- i know what dan's point is. i think the retail investor winds up getting a little bit dragged around, because they're

the ones that get flushed out, buy the tops and then flushed out really quickly. i would think that institutions are still holding this stock, and i have -- i have yet to meet an institutional account that is ready to throw it out just yet. i don't think the story is still intact. you're looking at a one-dimensional company right now. it's all based on iphones. it's cannibalized everything unto itself. and people are getting frustrated the fact is all they have is just the iphone. >> all right. want to go out to john fort in silicon valley on the call. just std. john, what do we need to hear in order to see that stock turn around? >> well, we need to hear about supply, we need to hear about any constraints they might have faced, what's happening with inventory, what happened to that mac number? was it because of the late delivery of imacs? because that mac number alone, if it had been close to the 5.2 million units, that the street had expected, would have made a difference on both the top and bottom lines. something i will point out too that's interesting. apple has just started breaking out the greater china number in the numbers they give at the

close with this report. the revenue is $6.83 billion up 67% year over year. now their third largest market behind the americas and europe, ahead of japan. >> i think my question would be -- i agree with everything you just said. but i think now there's going to be a cascade. there's going to be a chorus of people. they have in the past, karen fineman one of them, what are they doing with the $137 billion which now represents i guess close to 35% or so of their market cap. what are they going to do with that money? my sense is, that's going to be one of the initial questions asked. and at this point, they really need to have an answer for it, i would think. >> yep, that makes a lot of sense. there are reports out they're trying to use it for financing in emerging markets trying to make it easier for people to pay for new hardware overtime, maybe something like a carrier subsidy effect that apple takes on its own shoulders. not sure about that. but analysts are sure to ask,

because it seems like a move that apple is looking at in some of these emerging markets. >> john, fill us in when you have any developments off the apple conference call. again, that call just getting under way. we see the stock close to after hour session lows down by more than 6% at this point. brian kelly, can you comfortably get in the stock here, because i'm sure there are a lot of people at home who might have missed this whole apple move. you know what, now is the time. >> somewhere around here, it certainly has some institutional support with options trading, as well as you have some technical support. but the problem you have with apple, what's going on right now is this story isn't necessarily changing. but the way the company is valued is changing. you're not going to get those big growth numbers. you're not going to get those big margin numbers. people are going to start talking about china and the china mobile deal. but if they do a china mobile deal, they might have to do a whole new phone. it's not going to have the same margins of before. so now you have to look at what karen has actually talked about a lot, the dollars, the amount of revenue coming in. if you get more revenue, that's great. and if you believe that story,

somewhere around 484, 60, it's probably the place where you want to take a shot. >> and the margins is what we highlighted because in terms of what they're seeing for the current quarter in margin guidance is a decline. and will be a see decline, year on year, and in theory with the i phone 5, they should see improvements on margin. >> so you ask yourself, is apple a technology company or retail company? because if they're a retail company, which i believe they are, it's very hard to put the margin jeannie back in the bottle. once it starts heading the wrong way, it's very difficult to make it stabilize and turn back around the other way. i'm not saying they can't do it. they might be able to do it, and they would effectively be one of the first. but that's really i think what the street is focused on. >> and the other point is this, here's a company that had grown earnings, 75, 100% in the last three years, okay? all of a sudden now they have -- expected to have $200 billion in revenues. you cannot grow like that going forward. so at the end of the day, what do you pay for a company that dominates in certain categories

that is growing in the high single digits? >> right. let's bring in our next guest. he says apple will hit 425 this year. the man who made that prediction, the ceo and co founder of double line, he joins us now on the "fast line." jeff, always great to speak with you. >> melissa, good to be here. >> in terms of the trade, 425, do you think that will come sooner than you thought at this point? >> well, i think it's coming this year for sure. that's an awfully long time window, i realize. i think the way it's looking now, it should probably happen this quarter. i mean, listen to people talking about apple. i'm still impressed with the obsession that people have with, do i buy it now that it's down a little bit, institutional hands, have they told is it, do they own it, this is not the type of talk that goes on at a real enduring bottom in an asset class or stock. i think it trades incredibly badly. and in the very short term, i don't know where the stock is this very second. i know it was down pretty sharply, town to about 486 or

so. last i saw it. but the intraday low is 483. i think if you take that out and certainly if you close tomorrow at 483, you're going to see 425 very, very quickly. the best thing apple has going for it is it's lost some of its down side momentum. last time we spoke, me list, was november 16th and we talked about how risk asset stocks, probably start to catch a bit. and maybe bond yields, short term -- all those things have happened. it seems that so many things have had a nice rally from there. apple isn't among them. but i really think it's time to be hooking for corrections across the board in all those things. the same type of reversal to the upside, we talked about november 16th, i think you'll be looking at reverseals to the down side since then. and a decrease, believe it or not, in long term bond yields once again of the. >> jeff, you made this call in the sharp run higher apple saw

up to 705 or 707 or so and you said when you see something go up that quickly, you want to short it. but what is a fundamental story? is there a point at which you would go along apple if it hit that 425 mark, is that fairly valued in your mind? >> i really think it's ultimately going through that number. i think this is really a broken company that's incredibly overowned. again, the fact that we're talking and across the board in the media so much about this indicates that it's still very, very in the forefront of investors' psyche. and i don't think bottoms happen with that type of sentiment. fair value? i think 425 represents fair value but since when do broken asset classes and stock stop at fair value? you know, someone is just mentioning while i was waiting to come on air about this huge cash position. you know, that doesn't exactly argue for a huge multiple. >> hey, jeff, you know, your call when you made it in the fall was fascinating, definitely going against the grain. at that time, investor sentiment

and the street were very, very bullish, putting thousand-dollar price targets on it. was that the exact reason why you turned your sights on to this stock? you're not known to be an equity investor, as i believed. so what was it? was it the talk like you mentioned about the obsession you thought was kind of unnatural? >> i look for extremes in terms of overbelief and under belief and stocks and asset classes away from fixed income where i obviously have a lot of granularity on micro stuff. so i first really started to wonder about apple when one guy came out with a thousand, another guy beat him with 1500. and then just to be cute, somebody came out with this ridiculous target of 1111. but the thing was just some sort of a game. and i really think that's emblematic of a top in the market. and then i talked about maybe going short, and i didn't call the top in apple. i talked about it 610, and went higher from there. obviously a short 610 is very profitable now. but i give speeches from time to time and i was giving a speech to a room of about 2,000 people

and i talked about being short apple and you could almost hear snickering or laughing in the audience on the concept. and so i said hey, who in this room owns apple for themselves or for their clients and of course virtually every handled in the room went up. and i said if that's the case, who exactly is going to be the person that's going to buy it now? it's that type of one-sided ownership that is difficult to overcome once something rolls over to the down side. that's where we are right now. i just think it's the easiest call going that apple is going to 425. that's where the real support is. all this other stuff is just for the very short term. >> jeff, how much of this has to do with -- i saw one of your tag lines for steve jobs. when he died, it was known in the pipeline we had 18 months still left of apple ideas. how much do you think people are just saying it's over? >> i think it sort of is over. we talked about this in november when i said, you know, what's

good to be next? you come out with iphones and hot flashy colors? i think they're actually doing that. i think they're coming out with the tooty fruity one. i said that facetiously. if that's your idea of innovation, tuti fruity colors instead of black and white, i think it's over. >> if we close below 480, we could see 425 quickly and you said you think it's ultimately going lower. what are your guesses on that? >> oh, i don't know. probably somewhere in the 300 zone, ultimately, would be a sensible place. it would be cheap there, probably. we have to see how the world economy looks and everything else about the company. but that's the level where it's really cheap. >> and the huge cash stockpile? $137 billion, a lot of that value investors will say that is a reason to own apple. they're going to do something with it. they're going to buy back stock, they're going to pay a dividend much that's no reason for you, though. why not? >> one of the things people talk about is pe multiples and people

say it isn't that high. but when -- when you have more and more cash, you know, what's the multiple on cash? it's supposed to be zero, right? so if you're betting that they're going to do something brilliant with it, you're taking a pretty big leap of faith. i would like to see exactly what the plan is before i automatically assume it's going to be some sort of brilliant move. >> yeah. and that's sort of -- maybe misunderstood, but that's been sort of my point. what have they seen all along to require them to hold a cash position like they do? saving money for a rainy day? maybe they see things we don't see. so to me, that's been -- noah's ark with that kind of cash position. >> one would think. >> one other point, jeff. what's next? you talk about this obsession. we have just in the after hours to be able to, netflix, which is kind of, you know, up 100% in just a few months. is that the sort of thing where you have the high short interest? are these things that attract you at some point? >> i would certainly rather own them than apple.

but like i said at the beginning of this conversation, all of these things are really up a lot. and some of them -- talk about google. i mean, that's -- doesn't even look all that healthy. i know it rocketed higher today. but doesn't look all that healthy on the charts. i mean, it's kind of declining tops and then go to something like ibm and it's done super well today. but you're looking at something that looks like a triple top at 212. i just think the -- this rally from the last time we spoke, which for tuitously was a turnig point in the markets on november 16th, i think we're really at a turning point sort of in the short term the other way. and the fact that apple is performing so badly can't be taken as a positive sign. >> so what is your overall view of the markets, jeff? and i'm guessing based on what you said in the past there are other stock markets elsewhere in the world that might be better investments right now. >> i really don't like them either. i mean, i talked about the japanese stock market, i love it long-term. you really want to use etf that

shorts -- you don't really want yen exposure. but that's a really extended trade. i mean, that has been just a killer. >> you adamant? >> i would absolutely not add to that at this point. i think it's a great trade looking out towards the end of this yu year. but it really looks like that needs to consolidate along with other markets that seem overextended on this new year's optimi optimism, again, right? this is the third year in a row that we've had the same beginning to the year. and it ends up kind of petering out somewhere in the late first quarter. i don't like to just use the same road map, because it's been repeating. but i must respect the fact that it is happening yet again this year. and so i really think that bond yields are likely to fall a little bit. and stock markets and risk assets are likely to fall also. i'm discouraged also by the fact that gold has been flat since last we spoke. agriculture, which i like for the long term has been flat since we spoke.

it's not really tainting the corroborating theme of inflation. i think for stocks globally to go up a lot right now from here, you really have to believe in inflation. if that's the case, buy silver. >> okay. jeff, we're going to leave it there. thanks for your time. >> thank you. >> the ceo of double line. lots to chew on. first let's deal with the apple trade here. if we close below 480, these are some of the highlights of our conversation it goes to 425 quickly. ultimately he says it could see as low as 300. i mean -- >> listen. when stocks break in general, if this did not have -- it wasn't apple, just any other stock in the world, people would say, okay, maybe. when stocks break and stories change that's what happens. they go well beyond the levels that that would -- one might think is fair value. and so i think that's really the point that he's trying to make, is that it could go well beyond 425, the level he says it could go. >> one of my clients/friends had mentioned value trap and applied it to apple very, very early.

and everyone thought he was crazy. but the truth is, he even said it, jeff just said, if you look, that's where it becomes cheap. you don't know where a broken stock becomes cheap. they need a product. it was all iphone. >> you know what apple's 52 week low was 419 january 24th, almost one year ago 52 week low. >> we used to get off these calls where there would be disappointing metrics and the stock would rally and people would look ahead to the next product release. now the catalyst in the next few months, are they going to raise the dividend, buy back stock, shareholder meetings. stuff like that. to me is geographic expansion. china mobile. at the end of the day, you don't have that product story anymore, and to me that's why this stock is stuck in the mud. >> also less aggressive investor that buys into that. >> that is true. all right. of course the apple conference call is under way. john fort on that call. we'll bring you all of the developments as they happen. meantime, also watching shares of netflix soaring after hours

an an earnings profits surprise. the latest news and analysis coming up. plus, shares of apple still trading lower as we mentioned on the conference call. right now, take a look. down 6.25%. we'll have an update on that right after this. ♪

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netflix squi rocketing in the after hours session after the company beat on earnings and revenue. julia boreson has the latest from san jose. >> that's right. netflix shares soaring at their highest level since september of 2011. what is driving this upside surprise? the company added more streaming subscribers, both in the u.s. and internationally. and lost fewer dvd subscribers

than projected. earnings came in at 13 cents per share while wall street analysts had expected the company to swing to a loss of 13 cents. and revenue also beat expectations growing 8% over last year's quarter to $945 million. another factor driving that huge jump in the stock, the outlook for 2013 better than expected. reed hastings saying in the letter to shareholders q1 net income will be relatively flat whereas wall street had expected a loss. i'll be sitting down with ceo reed hastings for an exclusive interview tomorrow morning. i guess it's no surprise that after nearly two years since his last tv interview, he's finally ready. >> julia, thanks for that. mike in terms of the options market, they were pricing a 12% move to the up side or down side and look what we have. double that now. >> yeah. it's interesting, because this is actually a stock that moved more than that on average. i mean, if you look at the historic average, you can see

recent quarters you saw 20-plus percent moves. but it has averaged 13% over a longer-time horizon so the options market underestimated this time, i think. kind of interesting. but you did see some bullish bets being made. i think that was one way to press to the up side without taking as much risk and that obviously paid off nicely. >> we've talked about netflix now for what -- reed hastings obviously done a nice job navigating, took a broken stock and turned it around. >> took a broken stock in made a broken stock ten years ago. >> but we talked about it when carl icon announced he was in the -- i know we have done street fights on this one and people say it's time to get out now. there might be some more room in this stock. it wouldn't surprise me if this printed up to 150 or so. and then you might want to look to pull the rip cord but the shorts getting squeezed, will continue to do so. it's been a great trade over the last couple weeks. >> all right. want to go back out to john fort on the apple conference call. john, what's the latest there? >> most interesting thing said in a lead up to the q & a, apple

saying we used to give guidance that we knew we could beat, basically. now we're going to give guidance we believe actually reflects what we are likely to achieve. so in a way, wall street might read this as a negative in where they guided, because apple is saying they actually expect to be within that 41 to $43 billion range. they're not just saying that, they're actually going to give you the $45 billion you want. no, this is what we really believe that we're going to achieve. of course, time will tell whether this is real this time. but they're saying, hey, we're not sandbagging anymore. >> sounds a little kooky. >> after hours session lows. >> 474. okay. so it's broke that intraday low from last week. at the end of the day, this company was the street that used to get ahead of it, right? used to take that sandbag guidance and get excited about it. here they're telling you, this is what it's going to be. and so what wall street needs to do is come down to their senses in a way, and really come in line with their guidance. >> but, again, for aggressive

investors to get into this stock, the story of the stock is changing. they still sell a great product. people are going to buy a ton of iphones and ipads. but the story as an investor is changing very much, and you don't have to aggressively buy this name like in the past. >> right. no surprise in the after hours session, also seeing a lot of apple suppliers trade lower on the back of these results. lets get back to hq and see what's moving right now. >> hey, me lista, watching collateral damage with apple, qualcomm, skyworks, report net week they had been trading lower after hours. other suppliers reported, western digital killed it on its second quarter, revenues at $3.8 billion compared to an estimate of about $3.68 billion. earnings at 209 compared to an estimate of about $1.82. nonetheless, suffering. lsi, its earnings also topped for its fourth quarter but outlook for first quarter revenues look shy of the

estimates on the street. back to you guys. >> all right. thank you very much. bertha coombs. are any of these declines in the after hours session in this apple ecosystem a buy here? we've talked about names like a broad com and qualcomm. which aren't necessarily all apple. >> exactly. specifically talk about qualcomm. this has happened before when people used qualcomm as a proxy to getrt apple, because they think they missed the move on the down side. and that didn't work either. and you can go back and look at what happened to the stock when qualcomm reported last quarter, rallied 3.5, 4 bucks. i'm telling you, i believe if you're getting short qualcomm to be proxy short apple, you are making the wrong play. there are other reasons to be short. i don't think it's the right play. but that's clearly the wrong one. qualcomm is much of bigger than apple alone. >> listen, broadcom is another. 13% of their revenues from apple. apple down 6, 7% year over year. they're going to have to squeeze their own suppliers. this is something that will trickle down the supply chain.

and think about it also. android is becoming a massive competitor to apple here. and so apple isn't as dominant as getting the terms for -- from the supply chain they got before. so you're going to start seeing apple squeeze the suppliers. >> when we come back, this is a street brewing over starbucks, perked up, one stock, two opinions, one good old fashioned street fight. first, from china's electric growth to production cuts, citi tells us how to seek alpha in the global arena. back right after this. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you should've seen me today.

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[ male announcer ] save on ground shipping at fedex office. take a look at our big mover in the after hours session, apple is down 8%. take a look at the impact it's having on the qs down by 1.33%. mean time, we are expecting data overnight that will give us a fresh read on china's growth momentum. ed, we have certainly got a lot of data points indicating there is strength in china, whether from government numbers or independent numbers. >> yep. >> are you a buyer of that? are you seeing that play on the commodities market?

>> well, we have to remember, even at 7.8% or 7.9% growth, it's not 10 or 11% growth. so it's a sign that chinese growth has not slipped but the new norm for china is significantly lower than the old norm. and that means lower demand for commodities as well. >> right. and also, the thing you have to keep in mind in terms of the commodities trade is whether or not china is actually taking inventories of certain kinds of commodities, just because they're growing, just because they're building out subways and power lines doesn't necessarily mean the trade is always higher for all commodities across the board. >> absolutely. and we've seen this in oil, where imports have gone up, refinery has put us up, but don't know what is happening with the product and it does appear that final demand at the consumer level is not growing fast. and that may mean the chinese refiners turn this into exports. >> right. looking at chinese net crude imports rebounding and some numbers out today from flats, i believe, saying that crude demand peaked in the month of december for china. >> well, it peaked, but we don't

know what's going to happen in the month of march. and peaks always before the chinese new year and the real question is what's going to happen when people get back to work after the holiday season? >> in terms of the copper trade, i think that's most seen as a proxy for china growth. but you're saying don't get too bullish on this one. >> don't get too bullish for two reasons, copper is tied to power generation and growth. and chinese power demand has really been kind of mediocre. it's gone down from the 10 to 20% level to the 4 or 5% level. so that means real demand for copper is slipping. and then there's this big scam in china of using copper to borrow against, to build shopping malls and residential space. and that game seems to be over. so the danger on the copper side is this material that's in inventory is going to be dumped into the market, dumped into exports and bring prices down. >> brian kelly, got a question? >> i do. ed, question, along the lines of copper there, we have seen iron ore really increase over the last month or so. there were reports that bhp

might be buying some cargos of iron ore to support the price. are we seeing the same type of things or could we see the same type of thing in iron ore and if the numbers aren't as good as you think they are or as you're suggesting they may not be, is iron ore vulnerable here, and by proxy some of the steel companies? >> we think iron ore is vulnerable, not really as vulnerable as copper, because it's not been part of the same collateralized financing game. whether anyone is buying in order to protect the market or not is very different from what's happening in the copper market. >> and let's talk about crude a little bit. today we saw a move to 97, there are reports that seaway was directing to make some provisions for the excess out there. what are you leaghearing and wh do you see crude going? >> crude is going to be much more volatile this year than any year in recent memory. we have had a glut in oklahoma, in alberta. and we're having the largest amount of pipeline capacity buildout in the history of the company. 1.7 million barrels a day of pipeline takeaway this year.

the volatility in the wti price has been because the start over the seaway increased. and it's sputtering a little bit. so it's created a selloff in wti. but we expect wti spreads to come in. they were in the mid 20s at one point last year, and we expect that that spread will come in by about half going forward by the end of the year. >> okay. ed, great to have you with us. thanks for stopping by. coming up next, we go off the charts to tackle where two of the market's biggest movers may be heading next and who is taking the spotlight in our good, bad and ugly. and later on, we pour over starbucks. two traders, one stock. two opinions. buy or sell? more "fast" straight ahead. ♪ pour some sugar on me a resta, try running four. fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards

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and welcome back to "fast money." we do want to take another check on apple. that conference call is under way. a lot of questions about gross margins and how they are projecting what would be a sequential quarter on quarter decline. also questions about what to do with $137 billion in cash. the stock there, you see, down 9.6% in the after hours session.

all right. time to go off the charts. what are we looking at? >> hewlett-packard and google. if you look at hewlett-packard, when it has been oversold -- we'll start with google. yesterday's chart on google. i bought it here basically because i thought the sentiment was so negative going into earnings, you just had to buy it. it became oversold on an intraday basis. i bought it looking for this pop. i had no idea, trust me, the implied option move was either going to be up or down this much. so it wasn't a big deal. but for me, i knew i was going to hold the position. so it worked. >> right. how did you -- how could you read the sentiment? just curious. oversold or overbought. >> everyone talks about search. but search is only the tip of the iceberg for google. it's the main thing. they still have 67, 70% of search. this is so many other things that move the needle for google that you really have to look at the total picture. search could be yesterday's, you know, animal or gore i will la in the room.

now you have to look at what moves the needle going forward, is it going to be the enterprise software, what are they're doing in r & d. so when you say how did i know, i so you saw the volatility and momentum. just crashing down on the stock. when it held that 691 marked, bounced at 694. i knew the stock was ready to tick up. i waited for confirmation above 700. >> gee, do you like this? >> i think now it's unfortunately the trade becomes a lot more difficult. now it's sort of the prove it stage where it needs to get above the 52-week high which i believe was 775, give or take. if you go back to 2009 when this stock was sub 300, we've had a series of violent moves all in a very defined up trend which i believe we're still in. but to for ray into google here, given the noise we're hearing in the after market, i think it's a fool'ser ranld. steve had a great trade but at 740, i don't think you should be long or short. >> and you know what, just to agree with you, gee, 745 was the january 10th high, the number you had to take a look at.

the low from that day was 741 and change. so today it closed weaker than i would have liked it. and as you said, i have been in the name. i would wait a couple days for confirmation on this move. >> let's talk hpq. because this is one everybody is wondering about since january alone, up 20%. >> first of all, i have to give credit to gary from clear view advisers, a technician all over this trade, spotted it first before me. oversold right here. when you see that happens, on average, hewlett-packard rallies over 100% when it's oversold. there are false indications when you are oversold. sometimes you just wait. if it holds that level, like right here oversold as well. but then it dipped down. you want to be buying it here. nonconfirmation, you sell it once it breaks this level. here is where it was a true confirmation of oversold. and that's where you are looking for this rise here. it's going to run into resistance here at 1813. and then beyond that, what they're looking for, technicians looking for mid 20s in the stock price. tony put it 28 or 29 on it as

well. >> where did you get in, and are you going to hold it to resistance? >> i've been in and out of the name, so i've been in here, sold it here. i'm back in the name now and still holding. >> all right. until resistance? >> holding to see what happens at 18 and 13. you have to wait for the overall market. if the overall market runs out of steam, you vacate the trade. >> what do you see in the options pits? >> not that much of optimism. we look at the volume that traded today, 37,000 puts versus just under 31,000 calls. i do think, they, this is one of the situations where if you're inclined to make it a bullish bet, we see relatively low options premiums in general. and these are the types of stocks that can actually move fairly sharply so you can take advantage of that low premium and i would be a call buyer here. >> let's hit the good, bad and ugly. >> i love this game. >> starring brian kelly. back in november, bk was warning about st. jude medical. take a listen.

>> there's an investigation going on in their california factories saying there might be some issues there. that's not good news for the stock. if you're in this still, you need to get out of it. >> all right. well, st. jude is up 10% since that warning. so -- >> i should have worn glasses that night, would have made me look smarter. i still don't like this name. look what happened today. came out with good earnings or earnings above what the street was estimating. and it couldn't get out of its own way. bumped against $40 a share. i would still, again, sell it here. >> all right. now on to the good. last month bk was suggesting a metals play. here's what he said. ♪ >> if you don't want to be in gold, check out platinum. it hasn't come down as much. >> i like platinum, pplt is your etf. >> good call. up 7% since that call. you in, you out? >> i am still in platinum. i would still hold on to platinum. certainly extended, a rocket ship straight up since then. so a pull back wouldn't surprise

me. but i'm still in, and still holding. i think it goes much higher. >> coming up next -- >> come on. give me some -- you can't play the game if you don't do it properly. two out of three ain't bad is a -- >> apple's chart in the -- down 10%. >> at least we had something. there you go. >> that's you doing the gangnam. that's your favorite. >> not really. >> you love doing the gangnam. you were just doing it in the green room. all right. >> riddonkallows. >> up next, take your bets off the table. highlight the stocks trading at levels not seen in years and putting their game faces on. guy adami, dan nathan will spar whether you should add starbucks to your holdings. the street fight is up next. ♪ at a dry cleaner, we replaced people with a machine. what? customers didn't like it. so why do banks do it?

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apple shares now down 10%. in fact, they have lost about one-third since hitting their highs back in september. let's go out to john fort with the latest from the conference call. john. >> melissa, interesting color first of all on i max, tim cook saying if we had been able to build enough to meet demand based on the product changeover and if the quarter had been as long as it was a year ago we

would have beaten the mac number. he in effect said that. also said question the accuracy of any rumor about our build plans, even if you get one individual supplier, giving you some data point, that doesn't give you the full view on what we actually planned to do. we tweaked things for suppliers all the time for all kinds of reasons. he also mentions that the mix of iphone 5s to total iphones is about what you would expect historically. the same as the mix between iphone4s and total iphone. he did mention the iphone 4 was supply constrained throughout the quarter. he said the same about the ipad mini, that was constrained but apple saying they expect to be able to meet demand in the march quarter. >> and john, any explanation on the shortfall, more than 1 million units? >> he said that it was a combination of things. one, they upgraded the imac design that the imacs were down 700,000 units compared to the year ago quarter. the late delivery of those

imacs, the fact they weren't selling the old imacs during that period, and the fact that this quarter was a week shorter, all combined to more than make up for the shortfall is what tim cook said. >> all right, john, thanks for the update. we'll go to you again when you have more developments. it's interesting what tim cook said on the conference call about the supplier, don't take it as gospel. and yet if you did, you might have been out of the stock, and you might have missed decline. >> that's a great point. here's a really big one. tim cook is the supply chain guy. he wasn't the product guy that steve jobs was or johnnie i'd was and so at the end of the day, this company refreshed almost every major product they have in the prior quarter here. and they're misexecuting, missing on these units. so at some point, tim cook is going to come under fire as maybe not that great supply chain guy. >> could this be the puke we've been waiting for? i hate to say that. typically we say if a stock sells off hard, that may be the time. that may be the time to get in. >> it could be. i think the problem is, again, i think the type of investors changing, the story is changing

a bit. and on the supply chain, i would say, look at the markets around the world. japan, taiwan, these markets have all sold off on these supply chain rumors and stories. you know, to me, the market is right. ultimately, the market will prove it out. >> all right. let's move on. investors looking at starbucks' numbers in 24 hours to see how the coffee maker is faring against increased competition from green mountain and mcdonald's. how should you play starbucks earnings? we have a good old fashioned street fight. guy adami is our bull. dan nathan is our bear. you each have 30 seconds to make your case. so gee -- >> this was one of those parabollic stocks in the last couple years. obviously fell on a bit of hard s. i think, though, it's setting up for a nice bounce. a lot of people discounted scar bucks. i think howard schultz is a genius. asi asian growth. they have a tremendous balance sheet which allows them to go out and make deals like we saw

for that tea vana. not going to move the needle but able to do things like that. people set up the wrong way tomorrow. i could see me being fast fired but with they say anything good, it's a $58 stock. >> you know, all great points. the stock is up 17% since they beat last quarter. had two consecutive misses. when you talk about that growth overseas, that's probably one of the issues here. they still get 75% of their sales from the u.s. this payroll hike that just came in place for this year, this could affect sales, could affect their guidance tomorrow. the options market is implying a 4.5% move. the stock has moved 6% on average with the stock up like this with where the market is right here, on a stock trading at 30 times trailing 12-month earnings, i don't think you have to step in right here. you almost wait for the thing to come in on maybe some weak guidance. >> that, by the way, means his time is up. doesn't mean he's wrong. >> ah. >> just to clarify. >> must be the chair. >> we don't know yet.

bk, where do you go? you like starbucks, don't like starbucks? >> i'm going have to side with dan on this. i don't like starbucks here. i think to me, the consumer is tapped out here in the u.s. yes, you'll get some asian growth. but i'm not a big fan of it here. i think it's a bit frothy. >> since november, making higher lows. if you want to play the momentum game in the marketplace and the market tips over 1500, you've got to go with my good friend, guy adami. >> you know who could make the call, mike, he saw some unusual options activity in starbucks. mike, what did you see? >> most people know i'm kind of an evaluation guy so a little bit on dan's camp. but the most active strike was the february 55 calls making bullish bets, spending a buck and quarter on those. those obviously need to see the stock above 56 and a quarter by february expiration, about three weeks away. that's up about 3.3%. for my money, i think that's probably a safer way to make a bullish bet if you're inclined to press it in that direction,

though. >> all right. so mike goes with dan. >> no-no, no, no! >> i heard something -- >> the options market. the options market goes with gee. so it's a tie. >> mike, mike -- >> today everybody gets -- >> mike -- >> everybody is a winner today. >> we'll see you in the green room, mike. >> in five, i'll being down. >> coming up next, trade tweets, find out which ones caught our traders' attention. first on the south side to unlock the trade of the day. more "fast" straight ahead. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim

from td ameritrade. ♪

we love audience participation. >> love it. >> right? so we asked for your tweets, for your questions, and we want to answer them right here, live. okay. first one is for bk. @pvitha tweets, gold once again failing at 1700. what is going on? >> 1700 has been formidable resistance here. what gold has to do is did he couple from the u.s. dollar trade and it has done it over the long term if you look back from 71 until now. u.s. dollars down about 34%. gold up 4300%.

so gold can do it. it's going to take a little bit of churning and it's going to take a bit for people to kind of get rid of all other currencies and just go with gold. i hold it, i still like it. i also like silver. >> all right. the next one is for dan nathan. charles asks, how about a research in motion risk reversal after the next move up? >> wow. charles, you are a brave man. here's the thing. this stock has gone para bollic and everything is pointing towards this january 30th. bb 10 launched it. i think this is going to fall flat on its face, a flat-out disaster. that being said, when you say risk reversal, i think you are implying sell a call to buy a put. i think that's a dangerous way to play. i would rather be long premium to play for a pullback. >> and finally, guy gets one. from the roxbury women's basketball team. they say -- >> what do you mean -- >> i don't know on twitder, you never know who anybody is. anyway. opinions regarding nat gas

prices, chesapeake energy. >> i thought you could short chesapeake around 17.5, 18. that proved to be incorrect. the stock traded up to 18.5. in my opinion, the two best ways to still play the space is specifically a patchy but tans jenningsly. and congratulations to the rox. >> do you think that's really the team? >> i know it's the team. they've got a big game -- manchester, i think. or -- on saturday. i'm going to the game up in massachusetts. see you guys. see you gals, i should say. >> we come right back. there's a brand-new stock that can take it from the doghouse to top dog. "mad money" is next.

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