tv Options Action CNBC February 9, 2013 6:00am-6:30am EST
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many of you have to hit rock bottom until you change your financial lives, until there's no place else for you to go to get help. but when you're at rock bottom, climbing your way out of it is so much harder than if you just stopped this ridiculousness of doing that which you know you shouldn't be doing with your money, if you just stopped it before you hit rock bottom. so can you just look at all the people that come on "the suze orman show," and look at those that have hit rock bottom. look at those where you can identify with them and go, that's me. hey, that's just like what i'm doing, and don't let it get so bad that you're all the way down, and you have to make it all the way back up. the truth of the matter is, there's always something you can do to change your situation
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while you still have your health, you have years ahead of you, so all i'm asking you to do is, can you just do it now? don't wait. don't wait till it's too late. do you hear me? now you know. but until next week, there's really only thing i want you to remember when it comes to your money, and it is this, people first, then money, then things, now you stay safe. bye-bye. >> this is "options action." tonight finding money in nemo. >> is this some kind of practical joke, it's not funny! >> no, not that nemo. this nemo. it has carter and ennis looking at a trade in home depot that
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can quadruple your money in three months. is procter & gamble? despite the fact they're the second best performer this year. why are all those options traders taking tesla calls for a spin? the action begins right now. ♪ >> the nasdaq market in the heart of a snowy times square in new york city. the traders and the weather outside is indeed frightful. trust me. but the returns from the stock market are down right delightful. the dow flirting with the 14,000 level. and the nasdaq new 12-year highs. so the question, is it too late to get in? let's find out. mike, it's interesting the s&p right now is almost close to the targets of a lot of strategists on wall street. we're almost there. >> you wonder whether you should get worried when the analysts are having a hard time keeping
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up the market. i understand why people would be bulls. talk about the divergence between corporate earnings and the foot is firmly on the gas pedal. and they say people are underinvested. i don't buy any of those. if the fed has their foot on the gas pedal, they could take it off. as far as everybody being underinvested, goldman sachs indicated they have 40 to 45% of their assets in equities already. when i look at the dow chart, ten-year chart, looks to me like it could be forming a double top. look at the s&p top, looks like it could be forming a triple top. to me, have you to start looking down at this point. i know i'm starting to sound shrill when i say that.
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>> and you got to wonder about the quality of the rally. i read an interesting. meaning the dogs last year are simply catching up and that's helping in part to drive some of these gains. >> there's certainly a big portion of this gain performance anxiety from hedge funds, for example, who are taking off their short, scrambling to catch up with the strong market returns. incredibly you have american express, disney, johnson & johnson, at or near all-time highs, which shows the breadth and impressive nature of the rally. having said all that, i agree with mike. i think it's not the area that you start putting new money to work. i think you want to wait for a pullback. you want to be much more discerning about value. >> and then scott you adthe fact that the volatility index is very low. it's at 13. so if you read it as the
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contrarian indicator that some might read it as, you might think it's not time for the dow and s&p to continue higher. >> that's right. but i think the market has more room to the upside. why? because $82 billion left equity mutual funds in the fourth quarter of last year and 2/3 of that left in december. why did they flee? they fled because they were afraid of the fiscal cliff. now a giant move in january and people are left underinvested. it's like being in the airline terminal and seeing the plane you're supposed to be on taking off and they missed the opportunity to to be invested. i don't think the market has a long way to go to the upside, but the momentum is clearly in that direction. so don't stop on a dime right now. >> a lot of money that came out of the market has piled right back into it. so i'm not sure that necessarily is a good case. that fiscal cliff was problem number one. we still have issues to deal with in europe and we still have other fiscal issues that erwoo facing. we can't say the problems are over. what will happen when people start concentrating on those things? the money will flow back out
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again. >> i think a lot of that money is still on the sidelines again. people were really surprised by the violence of the move that we saw once we had a fiscal cliff deal and to the degree that those investors weren't able to get back in right away. >> certainly a positive data point that money is flowing book into equities for the month of january, but experts out there say one month is not a trend make. keep watching this. meantime, take a look at what has led us higher. financials, staples, as well as retail. as ennis mentioned, a lot of these blue chip american company names, they're the ones leading us higher. mike, you're looking at procter and gamble as a poster child for the p.o.w. euphoria that exists. >> they're not like the financials which were so grossly undervalued, you figured if they could pull it together, they deserved to shoot higher. it's a consume staple company, does not have exceptional growth.
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it was stable through the credit crisis and it's stable now. not going to start growing at a big rate. close to 20 times earnings. it's probably the most technically overbought stock in the dow at this point in time. when i look at this thing, i look at it as inflation adjusted bond. you don't see these kinds of rifts in that. i think it's ready for a pullback. exceptional low volatility, makes the options cheap. >> mike has a bearish view on this. a great beginning trade for those new to options. when you buy a put, you want the stock to go lower by more than the cost of the trade. that's where you see the most profits. above that level, you will see losses. it's that simple. with that said, what's the trade? >> i'm looking at the april puts. when i was looking at this earlier today, they were traded about 60 cents. one of the things to think about here, because the stock doesn't move around a whole lot, what's it going to take to push it through that strike?
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but this is a situation where i don't think you'll see a lot of decay. if it pulls back, you can spread it or take it on for a profit. i think we'll see it pull back a little bit. >> ennis, what's your view on procter & gamble? >> i think procter and gamble is a good example of a stock that doesn't offer good value here. it's a 20 p.e. name, not growing more than 10% a year. on top of that, it's similar to the discussion we were having. the only way a stock like that keeps going higher is the greater fool theory holds. i don't think it's a good value. i like mike's trade. >> let's wrap it up with stocks versus options. would have cost you 12% had you done that since the start of this year. mike's put divides his risk to just $60. let's move on. that is to the other big story of this day. that's nemo dumping snow along new york and new england. for more on the storm let's go to janel. >> the storm is getting more
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intense. we've seen more than three inches fall in the hartford areas. that's causing problems on the road. the state of connecticut declaring a no-travel advisory for the entire state of connecticut. the d.o.t. saying people need to stay off the roads. the governor saying they're in a state of emergency already and the entire state under a blizzard warning. already seen several big accidents on the highways and free ways in this region. all air travel shut down near hard fort and bus and train service also shut down today. the bigger concern, is people at home and power. electricity a major worry with
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snow like this. as the winds pick up, they're concerned about power lines breaking. several hundred people have been brought in from out of state in anticipation of fixing those lines, but with the high wind, it's very tough to get that done. so a lot of people worried about the storm as it gets worse. the governor today saying we are preparing for the worst, hoping for the best. >> all right, janel klein from the weather channel. we know about the storm and typically these events drive traffic to big box retailers looking for snow blowers and generators and batteries. despite the potential crowds this week, our next guest says stay away from h.d. let's find out why.
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hi, carter. >> thank you. yeah, it's been one of the great winners here over the past two years. it's a bit overdone. here's a two-year chart. you're talking about a security that has two distinct characteristics. the great appreciation 27 to 67. but it's the too complacent nature of the assent. you can see there's almost no debate. everyone's in agreement, it's great. the current two-year run in the context of where it's been in the past, in the long-term chart, depicts this. it's appreciating so aggressively it's returned toas 1999 high. that's a circumstance that's important. so here we are at the top of the dotcom bubble. here's the top of the housing bubble. interesting it's blown through where it was when housing was all-time high. interesting, the stock makes the same amount of money. when you turn to well defined past top, memory kicks in. there are people who own it from here, now having been made whole
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look to get out. and people who bought well look to get out. we're sellers here. >> what's your take, ennis? what's shocking about that chart it's higher than during the height of the housing bubble. and back to the tech bubble levels. >> the price to earnings ratio, you can see the point that i've been making about value not being there. this is the ten-year chart of the p.e. of hd. it's at ten-year high. so people are paying more for earnings now than at any point during the housing bubble. and it's a much larger company, so it's harder to grow earnings going forward. >> always good to crack open the playbook and see how this works. it's a bear strategy. buy one put and sell lower to cut your cost. you want the stock to fall to the strike of the short put. so ennis, what is the trade? >> i bought earlier today when hd stock was trading around 66.80. the may 65.60 put spread. i bought one of the may 65 puts for $2.10. i paid 1.25 for the package as a whole. it will break even at 63.75. i need the stock to fall below. max profit at $60 or below. i'm risking 125 to make 375. i like the risk-reward. on top of that, it gives me
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three months for a pullback to play out. the market is showing such strong momentum on the pullback, i'd probably take the trade-off. >> that will encompass the next earnings season and that will encompass the spring season and that's like christmas for the retailers? >> yeah, no, i think that's a great point. there's a bunch of optimist. home depot announced they'll have an even bigger spring hiring season this year. with 10,000 more people hired. ennis is right. this thing is trading between 23, 24 times earnings, probably 18 times on average. but for a single-digit grower, maybe the smaller multiple isn't justified. i think what we're seeing in the high yield market will trace into equities and these things are going to pull back. if you want to get optimistic, that might be the time to do it. but right now i like the trade.
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>> there could be a case made that home depot is a better company than it was ten years ago. and tail winds there too. there's a lot of inventory on the market that needs to be renovated, so it will get the double whammy. >> i think it's the most logical way to play. but i like ennis's trade. he's not being greedy. not calling a top. >> one more time on the stocks versus option button. shorting any stock can lead to unlimited losses.
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stocks can't go up forever. ennis's put spread offers a four to one return. not too bad. we'll see carter a little later on in the show. in the meantime, got a question, send us a tweet. @cnbc options. we'll answer it right after the show. our website has been revamped and you'll find scott's exclusive web extra trade. today it's on how to protect your entire portfolio. here's what's coming up next. ♪ have you driven a ford >> ennis and carter did and they triple their money in just three months. now they have a way to make even more. how are they going to do it? where are ford shares going next? find out when "options action" returns. time for pump up the volume, the names that were heating up
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options trader sizzle index this week. suffering from pain at the pump, this silicon based company may have the answer you're looking for. this week, the stock was electric after the ceo promised to build 20,000 new vehicles this year. options traders revved their engine making bets the company will kick into high gear. who is it? when "options action" returns. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade.
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>> where were options traders pumping up the volume this week? tesla motors. call volume was 6% above the average daily volume. >> you just heard how tesla calls were active. where was the action? >> a lot of people think it's a make or break year for them. one big call buyer thinks it will be a make year. >> let's look back on some of our winning trades. couple months back they put the pedal to the metal. they've much more and here's how. on "options action." it's how we kick our trades into high gear, risk less so we can make more. just what ennis and carter did on ford. >> we're on the long side. we think things look good. >> if carter's driving a ford, so am i, said ennis. >> i don't think there's any reason to do that now. >> you said, alan. that's because 100 shares cost over $1,000.
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so to spend less, ennis bought the february 11 strike call for 40 cents. now he needs ford shares to rise above the strike of the call by more than the cost of the trade. but spending 40 cents just to get into ford, it ain't the fast and the furious. >> i think the stock is built ford tough. >> that's how it's done. so to spend less, ennis sold the february strike call for 15 cents and created his call spread. why is this important? because by spending less, ennis made it easier to make more money. between the 40 cents he spent buying one call and the 15 cents he collected by selling the other, he cut the total cost of his trade down to just a quarter. now he needs ford to rise above
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by more than the quarter he spend on the trade by february expiration. >> this is a very positive thing. >> it sure is. but keep in mind, there's a trade-off. and by selling that call, ennis has capped his profits to the difference between the strike of the call that he bought and the strike of the call that he sold. the stock has risen over 24%, more than enough to make this trade a winner. now, these two are taking a victory lap, cruising around in their new ride and their new-found fame. but fellas, don't forget about the trade because "options action" just want to know one thing. what will these two do next? >> let's see how much money they made. had you bought ford stock at the time of the trade, you'd be looking at a return of 24%. ennis's trade cost 25 cents and can be sold today for a dollar. carter got us in. he's going to get us out. where do you see it going now,
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carter? >> ford has pulled back a here a little bit to around 13. but either way, we would say walk away onto the next. sort of a good thing that's over. ennis, what do you do? >> the call spread is intrinsic here. there's not much point in definitely taking it off. i got a too early, but i think the stock is still built ford tough. i think ford is one of the few places that has value in the market. it's growing at a decent pace. i like ford, i think the stock's going to do well this year. >> mike, there are a couple reasons why you might not want to be in ford anymore. that's its latest earnings reports, losses in europe will be bigger than expected. wouldn't be exact about how much bigger. gave a ballpark. then also you have the increased competition with the japanese auto makers who are benefitting from a much weaker yen. >> yeah, obviously that's true.
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although there is one issue with the japanese auto makers in north america. a bigger% of their cars are manufactured here. the new fusion is a phenomenal car, so is the focus, the f-150, recently revamped as the best selling vehicle in america. they've made about a half million of the eco-engines. if the market pulls back, it might see a little bit of that. but i like ford even with the risks. >> scott, what's your take on ford? >> i like the company. i actually like most of the auto makers. it's tough to like them, but as far as the trade is concerned, congratulations, you made the maximum amount of money. but if you want to get out, you're actually never going to receive that dollar because market makers won't pay you that dollar that you think the spread is worth. so there's nothing wrong with taking this to expiration. that's where everything comes out in the wash, maximum value and given there's only a few
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days to expiration -- >> i totally disagree with you, scott. you get out for 99 or 98 cents at worst and i'll take that over risking a loss from here. >> i'm not saying you can get out for better than 95 cents right now upon. >> i disagree. >> we'll leave it there. if you want updates on the trades, follow us on twitter @cnbc options. you can look at our trades on facebook as well. when we come back, amazing video of a dog that will shock you. you will not want to miss it. back right after this. ♪ ♪
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he's cruising to internet fame after this video was posted online. he taught himself to ride a scooter then upgraded to a different set of wheels. he will be featured in his very own tv show. good for you, norman. time now for the final call. the last word from the options pit. >> p&g puts. >> no longer home sweet home depot. >> insiders are selling. that's my cue. >> that's it for us here at "options action." "money in motion" is up next. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market.
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