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hi, everybody. good afternoon. we ernter the friday stretch for a friday. i'm maria bartiromo coming to you from the equities floor of barclays in new york city where we have a very special show on tap. bill? >> yes, we do. i'm bill griffith here at the new york stock exchange, of course, where we've already had a very volatile day, and don't forget this week the final hour of trading has seen some huge moves including that big selloff we saw in the final minutes of trade yesterday when the dow lost about 56 points in just a snap of the finger. as for today on the open this morning, the dow was down 116 points and then the market came roaring back on good economic data. the manufacturing number that came out at 10:00 a.m. eastern time helped the market, and we've been drifting here. the dow needs to be up 110 points today, maria, in order to hit all-time high, an right now

we're up 24. i'm sure at barclays they are sitting on the edge of their seats waiting for this, right? >> well, they are not waiting for it, they are actually making moves. a lot of action up here. i'll be talking to the ceo anthony jenkins on the hour "closing bell" about his vision called project transform and how he plans to build a better barclays after missteps and we'll talk about the libor rate scandal and getting over it. when is it in the rear view mirror? just a few minutes we'll talk with skip mcgee who runs the corporate investment bank here in the united states and the americas. runs the americas for barclays. barclays a dominant player on the deal front ranking second in the united states and third in the americas overall. i want to also highlight that barclays is the only bank to be the initial underwriter in the lat l acquisitions of 2013 so far, heinz, dell, liberty global, so we'll get into a lot of that. we'll find out if they think the deal flow picks up the rest of the year and what that might mean for this market rally. bill? >> let's get you caught up on the markets as we go into this

final hour of trade on the first trading day of march. there's the open this morning forth dow, down, as i said, 116 points. then came back after that first half hour of trading. up 29 right now at 14,084 and change. the old high, all time, is 14,164. nasdaq is up 7 points at 3167. apple has been struggling today, and the s&p right now is up 3.33 at 1517. keep in mind the dow is on pace for its ninth straight gain of a friday meaning it has closed positive every single friday so far in 2013, and it's the first trading day of the month, so finishing in the green can often be a good sign for the entire month. are we grasping at straws here, maria? >> a lot of indicators to look at, and certainly a lot of analysis on what the first two months of gains mean for the rest of the year. let's get right to the closing bell exchanged.

joined by brian beleskey and david greenlaw from morgan stanley, david katz from matrix asset advisers, and our own rick santelli. gentlemen, thanks for joining us. appreciate t.david greenlaw, let me kick this off with you. what are you expecting as we approach the close here as we know that here we are on the day that sequester cuts will take effect? any big surprises, you think, in the next hour? >> i'm not sure about the next hour, maria. i think the market has been well aware that skywester is coming and is going to kick in. i don't think that will have much impact. i'm more focused on how the sequester gets changed or adjusted over the course of the next month or so. we'll be revisiting this issue towards the end of march with the continuing resolution and the sequester is likely to be wrapped into that, so we'll have short-term disruptions in the economy related to the -- the sequester going into effect, but those disruptions should be relatively modest, i suspect, and the big ge is what happens at the end of the month with the continuing resolution. >> yeah. brian bellsky, you called this

the bunker poll market and the skywester is only a piece of that, isn't it? >> investors in general remain extremely reluctant to allocate money back into equities. mr. greenlaw has it exactly right. it's not about today's date with respect to the sequester. it's about what it looks like over the next couple of months as the u.s. government finally gets its financial house in order and what the cuts in the budget look like. from a longer term perspective we lead by the ruler of stocks which lead the economy, and the stock market is telling you that this will be a good thing that the u.s. government is finally forced to do some budget cuts, and, again, get its financial house in order. >> okay. david katz, do you read into anything about the first two months of the year, i mean, given the fact that we had such a good january and february? does that suggest the rest of the year would be positive, or is this just really history books and really doesn't make much of a trend? what do you think? >> historically a good january has been correlated to a good

year. sam stoval put out a beats today saying a good january and february hats been highly correlated to a good year. that coupled with the fact that pe ratios are low and the economy is in a recovery mode, earnings pretty good and a lot of m & a activity leaves us pretty optimistic for the balance of the year. we expect a lot of volatility, but if the government doesn't do something really stupid, we think we'll be in pretty good shape. >> meantime, rick santelli, the safe havens continue to grow. the dollar is at a six-month high, 1.50 against the pound today. first time we've seen that in a while and yields in the treasury continue lower. >> oh, absolutely. you've had two weeks in a row where treasury yields have closed lower. three weeks in a row where the pound has closed lower against the euro and the dollar and four weeks in a row that the euro has closed lower against the dollar which means dollar indexes closed up four weeks in a row, and i always like to take a wide look to get some perspective. look at a ten-year chart of ten-year note rates, they are

definitely basing, but it doesn't look like there's any sense of urgency for them to go higher. look at a ten-year chart of the dollar index it looks like it's coiling and maybe set for a breakout, but it all depends on the relatively value or lack thereof the european currencies and if you take the name of the dow off of it, as much as we can trade above 14,164, this is a chart i'd be a little careful with. >> a lot of charts that i've been looking at lately that i'd be careful with. interesting when you look at what the baltic dry shipping index has done, what copper has been doing, real breakdowns there. do you focus on that, david greenlaw, in terms of putting money to work and know we have open questions with the continuing resolution and debt ceiling debate coming in may? how do you want to allocate capital today? >> i'm an economist so i'm folk yugts on the economic numbers and we did have a very strong report which is consistent with some of the strength and indicators that you're talking about, maria. we had a so-so month for car sales.

i think there's a lot of questions about the retail sales environment. we get that data in a couple of weeks. we still see q1 gdp tracking around 1.5% so there is indication of strength in manufacturing, maybe a little bit of momentum building, but we do still have a number of important headwinds. >> we're in a situation, brian, where we all realize -- >> does that mean you want to put money to work in this market or not, based on what you're seeing in terms of economics? >> so my focus is on the economy. i'll leave to that to the other strategists that we're talking with. >> brian belski, realize the fed is catalyst for this market and david greenlaw highlighted the economic data, tepid at best, so the fed is not likely to pull back on the liquid any anytime soon. having said that, this market has gone very high, very fast. do you believe it goes more without some kind of a correction? >> an excellent point.

our target for year end is 1575 which is only a few percentage points from here. we remain very comfortable with that target. we haven't seen the inner workings of the target move that much especially considering mr. greenlaw's point with respect to the tepid economy and macro side of things. earnings growth is coming until a little bit better than most people expected, but the bottom loin as we've talked about on this show everybody is looking for correction, and when you typically that v that kind of scenario it does not come. our problem with the market on a near-term basis so many institutional investors seem to be chasing high beta right now. we don't believe that's the right course of action. we believe high quality assets as denoted by energy stocks, technology stocks here in the u.s. will lead us out of this and define the bull market in equities over the next several years. >> gentlemen, good to see you

all. have a good weekend. see you later. let's check on the winners and losers in what has been a wild trading week. >> with all three indices on track to close the week higher, here are your notable leaders and laggards this week. in the s&p some of your best performance, delphi automotive, dollar tree which continued to post strong sales growth, range resource, tiffany and safeway. laggards, first solar which offered weak guidance for the current quarter, jc penney, apollo, peabody and on the dow winners included hewlett-packard and home depot where fourth-quarter earnings jumped 32% in a jump in sales. finally let's recap the week in nasdaq, leaders include regeneron pharmaceuticals and amgen, laggards, f5, sears, intuitive and apple, now a 52-week low, now down some 32%

from its 2008 peek. >> josh, thanks very much. >> we're in the finley stretch. we've got about 45 minutes before the "closing bell" sounds today. a complete reversal earlier. we are, we need to close up 110 points to hit an all-time high. >> that would be nice, but i don't think so today, right? not happening. we're digging in for gold. she's not going to answer my question. we're digging for gold. the precious metal getting crushed lately. can you buy on the dip with gold and come out on top, he asks. that's coming up. and then after the break, find out where barclays sees opportunity and don't miss my exclusive interknew with the barclays president. that's coming up. back in a moment. how do traders using technical analysis streamline their process? at fidelity, we do it by merging two tools into one.

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welcome back. 45 minutes left in the trading session. the dow is up 37, but on the open it was down as many as 116 points. continuing that slide we saw yesterday afternoon, but then

that manufacturing report came out at 10:00 a.m. eastern time and brought the whole market back. we still though need to be up 110 to be -- hit an all-time high for the dow. that's not happening right now, as you can see. the nasdaq is up 8 and the market up three points. the leader the last couple of years is the bank stocks, the xfl, the financial spider of damages stocks. going back to the beginning of the year, you see the gains we saw in february and january. now things are getting to get a little dicy. one of the reasons we're seeing a hesitation in the markets because of financial stocks but they are up 7.7% this year. not a bad gain. maria. >> all right, bill. we're gauging the markets from the major trading floor here in barclays. welcome back to our special edition. coming at you from the barclays equities trading floor in manhattan. the automatic spending cuts kicking in hours from now and the president saying the effects

will be felt in weeks and months to come even though stocks have had little reaction to the stalemate, something investors are watching closely. those in this room as well joining on this is the head of the americas, and that's skip marie. >> thanks so much for joining us. the capital markets recently have had to be great news for you here. why do you think the markets are reacting and tell us what you think is going on recently and in history in the capital marks? >> the markets have become a bit immune. gone through crisis and crisis and we keep getting through this. last year we had to deal with the election and with greece and with the fiscal cliff and we got through all of that muff so the market is noun, in terms of the sequester it's really been a non-event? what do hear from clients about moving their money? keeping hearing the same thing that this is a fed-inspired rally and that there are few

alternatives. what do you hear from clients inters of why this market has been so resilient? >> i think if you look at money flows i would say that it's an accurate statement that the fed has really pushed people out the risk curve, and so we look at the fixed income markets last year, and it had very, very robust issuance, and move was coming into fixed income, high grade and high yield and now we've seen the shift even further out the risk curve this year with major inflows into the equity markets, an you've seen the markets are touching or close to touching all-time highs. >> what do you have to do here at barclays in terms of keeping this momentum for the rest of the year? do you think this continues? >> we're constructive on -- on the markets. we're constructive on the economy absent some sort of wild card event. as i said before, we think the skywester is a bit of a non-event. the elections in italy, people have looked right past that. our base case assumption is in the month of march these guys get together and do something.

doubt it's a grand bargain, probably just kick the can further down the road, but you have a slow growth economy, and the markets will continue to perform well because of low interest rates. >> meanwhile, you've got to operate and ceos out there have to operate the business regardless of what's going on and that's exactly what they are doing. records amount of cash on the balance sheet. deals are happening. you guys have led a number of big deals this year, heinz, et cetera. what does the pipeline look like for the rest of 2013? do you think the deal flow continues? >> in terms of activity we feel good about it. last year was a little bit slower for the year before. our base case this year is up 10% or so in terms of deactivity, but i have to tell you if there's a surprise, my guess is there would be a vice to the upside. corporate balance sheets are very strong. companies are in great shape after all the restructuring that they have done the last few years. valuations, even though the market is hitting, you know, really almost new highs,

valuations are not crazy. >> has the structure of the deal changed from past years given the fact that funding rates are where they are? what does the deal look like today? >> that's a very good point. in fact, since the year 2000, this is the second highest level of cash in terms of transaction. almost 70% of transactions are all cash, and that makes a lot of sense given the amount of cash on corporate balance sheets and very cheap funding available inside which you've seen already several examples of multi multi-billion dollar transactions so far this career. >> when you look at these deals, are they becoming pricey? having a debate with some of these deals just yesterday in terms of the pricing that we're seeing. are things getting away from companies? how would you characterize priceing? >> i think pricing is still rational. >> it's rational. >> yeah, and i think, particularly if you look at a company sitting with a bunch of cash on their balance sheet and then they could take that cash and put it to work in terms of

buying a company that has some earnings, that's going to be accretive in terms of earnings going forward. >> they are going to do deals and buy back stocks and pay dividends. you're not hearing a lot about expanding in terms of hiring because of all of this uncertainty in washington. >> i think that's a good point. you know, one of the things that corporate america, if you will, has done the last few years, they have gotten very adept at doing more with less, so they are very efficient in terms of operations, and profits have gone up, but it's not been a great story for employment. >> what's your take and how does europe play into this? i know you're running the americas here for barclays, but how does the trouble in europe impact things in america, full? the italian elections, a big disruption in the u.s. and then we come back the very next day. >> so, as a global firm and then as a firm that's what unique in terms of you look at our position in the uk, look at our position in the u.s., and either place it's a home game for us, so we care a lot about the

market in europe, and europe's been a drag on the overall market the last year in terms of m & a activity, in terms of equity activity. we think we've seen the bottom, and we think the markets are looking past the italian election. >> so the deal flow you think is largely in the u.s. or maybe asia and europe has bottomed? >> well, we see equity flows so far this year and equity deal flow in the u.s. we do think that later this year we'll see a rebound in those markets in europe. >> real quick, i want to talk to anthony jenkins about this, but i see the different signage around here about his transformed culture. how does this impact your business? >> a lot has happened in the industry and a lot has happened at barclays. when you look at purpose and values, i think it was right and certainly appropriate for us to come together around a common set of principles and values that we all agree on, but one of the -- one of the key things

that gets lost when you see all the signage and stuff like that is 99.9% of our employees have been, continue to, and will continue to do the right thing every day. act with integrity and act with honesty. they treat their colleagues and clients the right way. that's why we're here. skip, god to have you on the program. stick around, later on in the program i'll be talking exclusively to the ceo of barclays anthony jenkins. does he plan more layoffs? find out what this change in culture means for the firm. that's later on the "closing bell." bill? >> meantime, maria, with about 40 minutes left, the dow is up 30 points. it was down 116 if you're just joining us. it needs to be up 110 for a closing high today. >> meanwhile, how about gold in the price of gold is falling for the fifth straight month. there are still believers though in the precious metal. >> i love gold! the look of it, the taste of it,

the smell of it, the texture. >> find out if this is a golden opportunity to buy back into this beaten up commodity. we'll take a look at gold next. >> that's a preeminent analyst we just quoted there. >> speaking of selloffs, jc penney shares plunging more than 20% this week alone. is ceo ron johns on-the-next boss to be shown the door? that's later on the "closing bell." revolutionizing an industry can be a tough act to follow,

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welcome back. oil and gold prices have gotten crushed recently. jackie d'angelis has that story. >> reporter: oil closed at a two-month low, $90.68 a barrel. a couple of factors contributing to losses, number one, the stronger dollars and concerns over the sequester and bigger concerns about the global economy. meantime, read in the metals complex, bouillon closing down more than $5 an ounce in the session. it's a rough run for gold. we've seen the metal down for five consecutive months, including february. that's the worst streak that we've seen in 16 years. back to you. bill? >> all right, jackie. thank you very much. so has gold lost its luster for good, or is it time to get in right now? let's start talking numbers on that end. we'll look specifically at the exchange-traded fund and the symbol is gld. technical side joe greco with me on the floor of the stage and on the fundamental side is jeff

kilberg, founder of kkm financial, a cnbc contributor who is in chicago. jeff, low rates and easy money policies around the world so why is gold falling right now? >> well, bill, i think there's a couple of stories going on, and clearly it's a u.s. dollar strengthening story. we came down and our other guest can talk about the technicals but once we broke that 1620 essentially in the gold, we saw a breakdown and saw it testing the 50 level. one thing that really helped out, those who want to step in here and be a contrarian like myself is that ben bernanke came out and basically said that all the fed presidents and bickering and fighting, folks, he'll still make that call, and he came out and said that on tuesday. we've seen markets rally, and with the markets rallying, folks are averse to gold, so i think this is an opportunity to get in and get long gold right now. >> joe, what do the charts look like? >> well, thanks for the nod there, jeff, but, you know, i'm very long term and looking bullish but really short term i'm sideways. personally i'm flat ex my wife's

private collection, but i don't see any reason to jump in at this point yet. the story if you take it back a couple of years is a really nice bullish channel that moved the stock or gld in particularly. that's what we're drawing down on right up to 2011 and then all of a sudden we really started to form this -- it's a bullish pennant but at the same time not doing anything compelling. bounced off of that 150 level and down intraday and just below 150 in gld. each time it was met with a little bit of balancishness and right back in so we didn't really break out. as we elongate the time line, i'd like to see a price action, deep breakdown or -- >> i want to use that sense of urgency of people getting out. think about it, a $4.3 billion outflow of commodity sectors. 95% of that is essentially gld. seeing people flush, that's where we want to come in here, because at the end of the day we're going to see a commitment to gold. because i think at 1620 we tested it, you know, two days ago, been a great volatile trade

but right here in the gld, 1952 level, great support just under 150 so i think this is the time if you're averse to buying it right here. sell some 150 puts or collect premiums and you'll get put to it in the event we go back and test the december 2011 gold price, but we like it here, joe. >> i just don't think you'll get the reaction that you want so right now i don't think in march you need to jump right in. you need the same opportunity maybe midway through the year you'll have the opportunity to buy the 150 level. >> just in october, everybody loved when gold was 1,800 and nobody wants gold at 1-5-50 so i'll stay with my boy paulsen and stay long here. >> there was a lot of airiority into it because of the central bank involvement because of bernanke getting involved in printing and just a nice trade for people then to take off, but the price action -- >> lastly -- >> i understand it. >> last thought. >> the demand picture has not changed. china, you know, asia, they have not changed the demand component

of wanting to own gold. that's a very key component. people are overlooking. >> they do want, but we don't have the catalyst just yet to cause that breakout, not in my opinion. more time on the clock. >> one of the great debates. everybody has an opinion on gold, whether it's up, down or sideways. thanks, guys. >> even gold member. >> even gold member had a comment as well. >> heading towards the close, about 30 minutes left here. the dow up 26 points. it has been a wild day. we'll see what happens in the last half hour here, maria. >> well, president obama is warning that automatic spending cuts will make everything a little bit worse. >> every time that we get a piece of economic news over the next month, next two months, next six months, as long as the sequester is in place, we'll know that that economic news could have been better. >> did he just say six months from now? if the stalemate goes on that long, the market finally could

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welcome back. if you're just joining us the dow is up 28 points. you're thinking oh, a quiet day. has been anything but. the dow was down 116 on the open this morning, and then came roaring back on some favorable economic data on manufacturing, but it still a tepid close from what has been a very volatile week obviously. right now at 14,082. the nasdaq up 9 and the s&p up 3 points. maria? >> yeah. it's all about the fed once again. another day where wall street does not seem to care about the washington chaos that's now led to blunt spending cuts. >> yeah. let talk about the sequester. our jeff cox says don't let that fool you. the markets will be taking hits soon enough of this while our own bob pisani thinks traders and analyst-high concerns have

been off the mark. jeff, if the market hasn't reacted by now, defense stocks have been trading near all-time highs ahead of the sequester. why would they worry in the near future then? >> i get it, bill, it's a tough case to make. let me say this. we have a debt and deficit crisis. we know it, you know it, t washington knows it but nobody wants to admit it. why i do think the market is going to care and is going to care. the biggest bullish drop in two and a half years last week and also the lack of leadership, we saw what happened when mr. obama spoke today and how the market reacted to that. i think those type of gyrations will become more common. finally, we haven't seen what some people call that washington monument effect where something actually tangible happens to show us that, yes, these guys are serious, that they are willing to wreck the economy to score political points.

>> well, you have to wonder if that's the end result, wrecking the economy, bob, then i think we will have an impact, but at this point why should anybody care knowing that it's all about the fed and this is the best game in town? >> i think they should care, an jeff and i might agrooi grow ee this could be a real mess. the analysts and traders have been high this whole thing because a lot of these guys are long these stocks, the defense and health care stocks in particular, and i think there's a group that really kind of wants to sequester to go through. the wider community believes that the cash flow effects on the stock market from these budget cuts are not going to be as great as people have hyped and also that in the first few months of this the effects are going to be very, very minimal, and i think that might make some sense. >> what about that, jeff? >> my belief here is that this is a fragile market. i think, you know, we've seen

some things that really didn't seem to have a lot of oomph behind them really take a bite out of the markets, so when you look -- one of the things i'm focused on. very much interested in mr. magee's comments to maria previously about risk, about how foreign investors have been pushed out on the curve and look at bill gross' comments, he said corporate debts are being priced irrationally and i think he's right. when you look at the spreads with junk bonds, like 2007 levels. i just see us on this precipice that there's something here that -- that can easily knock us off. >> i think the key here, guys -- >> i don't know. you know, here we are entering the final month of the first quarter, bob. what's your read in terms of the first quarter numbers so far? could that be something that unnerves this market? >> well, so far, so far, we have had an absolutely spectacular year. it's very rare when you get january and february moving together. i would agree with the idea that

much of march is going to depend to a certain extent on how this gets resolved. right now the street believes that by the end of march there's going to be some kind of resolution, particularly around march 27, when you get a continuing resolution. there will be a deal for these budget cuts as well combined in. that's the sign of what it believes. if we're here one month from now and it's april 1st and the government is starting to shut down because the continuing resolution proposal is not passed and still no further deal on sequestration, i can assure you the markets are not going to be high. >> jeff, what about maria's point, the fed, that's what's driving this market? not so much fears about the sequestration. >> that's an easy argument to make that the fed is driving things, but i think, you know, when you look at economically, we are dancing on the head of a sewing needle, and the two biggest stories in investing this year, one i mentioned before, the mispricing of risk and the other is the consumer pressure. consumer pressure has not shown up yet in the economic data.

it will. tax increases, gasoline prices and all the other things weighing on consumers, that's a huge problem. >> and president obama made exactly that point today, jeff. in an economy where you're 0.3%. >> doesn't take much. >> even 0.1%, we don't know exactly how much this might affect but even 0.1% could matter. >> thanks, guys. good conversation on a very important topic for the markets right now. see you later. thanks. >> you forgot about the -- the tax holiday, the payroll tax holiday that went away, that's another thing that consumers are upset about. >> yeah. >> warren buffett's bethaway set to report earnings. josh lipton with a preview of what investors are watching for. >> berkshire hathaway reporting after the bell, also expected, of course, the highly anticipated letter to shareholders from the oracle of omaha himself mr. warren buffett. beyond the top and bottom lines here's what analysts are telling me they are looking for. one, the insurance business, any

impact from superstorm sandy. two, they have shown decent results in their manufacturing and retail businesses the last year so the street will want to know if those trends are continuing. the energy business, are they seeing any pushback from regulators? finally, last fall berkshire raisedits accommodate a stakeholder and analysts will want to know if that's continuing. the stock, by the way, hitting an all-time high just yesterday. back to you guys. >> josh, thank you very much. heading towards the close here with about 20 minutes left. the dow is still up about 30 points. maria? >> are the worst days behind best buy? investors buying up the stock today. a big move despite the troubling results. we'll tell you about it when we come right back. >> andrew mason has had better weeks after being fired. the company's founder fired as groupon's ceo, but he wrote arguably the best good-bye letter ever. if you didn't hear about this, you'll want to stay tuned for this. plus, we'll tell you about some other ceos who went out in a colorful way after being told to

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welcome back. best buy is still losing money, but it did report better than

expected results even after rejecting that their 1 billion investment in the firm. mary thompson has details for us. mary? >> reporter: hey there, bill. in the latest twist the ceo saying the combined proposed investments from three private equity firms would have hurt shareholders. >> the cost of these investments, however, were determined to be excessive and dilutive to our existing shareholders. therefore, the company concluded to not accept these offers. >> reporter: as far as an expected offer from the firm's founder and minority shareholder richard schultz, joly said it wasn't made, freeing the firm to focus on the turnaround. he also said he hasn't made a decision to exercise his right to appoint two directors to the company's board. on the earnings call, joly outlining a six-point plan aimed at improving esstore sales in all of best buy segments. joly calling fiscal 2014 a year

of transition, an effort analysts applaud while pointing out it won't be a quick fix. as for the fourth-quarter adjusted earnings from last year, beating estimates by a dime on stronger than expected revenue as u.s. sales steadied with international sales continuing to decline. bill, back to you. >> all right, mary, thank you very much. heading towards the close, 15 minutes left. losing some altitude now, the seydou up just 15 points right now, maria. we'll see what happens here. >> yeah. the dow may be within striking distance of a record high but one top investor says don't expect that to happen any time soon. he's expecting a pullback to begin before we get to the new record. his thoughts on what's behind that. >> and gary gensler warns his enforcement will be compromised by the spending cuts set to kick in at midnight. he'll be here exclusively to explain why. back in a moment. ♪ [ watch ticking ] [ engine revs ]

come in. ♪ got the coffee. that was fast. we're outta here. ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪

okay. final minutes of trading for the first day of march. all three major averages are in the green at the moment, plus, the dow is on pace for its ninth straight friday gain, but it does continue to fall short of an all-time high. maria? >> yes, it does, and we're

looking at sort of a drop-off in momentum as we approach the last few minute. where do we head from here, allen valdez is here and from the chicago mercantile exchange michael gerka and we'll be joined by ben willis coming up. >> we think. he's around here somewhere. he must be buying or selling something right now because we haven't found him. >> yeah. well, it's at the close. i'm sure he's settling out trades. allen valdez, let me kick off with you. what are you seeing in terms of the flow today on wall street? >> i really thought we'd go through the level. >> why? >> new money comes into the market. >> yeah, yeah. >> we've had that friday run for the last few weeks, and just was that momentum coming into today, even though we sold off yesterday. still a lot of positive buzz about getting this market through today. of course the sequester wasn't going to happen until after the close anyway. >> ben willis just said down. i hope the trade was profitable, whatever it was that you were doing, but you are expecting a

pullback? >> i am expecting a pullback, and i think we saw a little bit of a hint of it late yesterday when the market gave way after being up all day. again, nobody needs to panic about it. it's a healthy reaction for a healthy market to have the pullback. we're up 7.5% since the beginning of january. that is a great year, no less a month so i would look somewhere around 2.5%. i would prefer to get to a 5% correction before we once again talk about the dow going to new highs. >> maria? >> what about that end of the day imbalance, ben? what are you seeing as we approach the close here? >> right now it's -- it's not a factor, so i'm actually concerned, but i -- i don't have a good feeling about how the market goes out right now, but being as alan said earlier, it's a -- it's the first day of the trading month. you usually see inflows so i would suspect it would stay slightly to the buy side. >> what do you expect to be happening here?

>> well, one of the first things i would look at is how march is going to set the table, and without question there's a lot of successful long positions in the stock market that are looking for nothing more than that last push higher to take profits and reassess. it's been a successful trade. that being said in march i think the tone is going to be a stronger dollar, and these being prefaced by the way the british pound came off today off the fundamental news and more importantly the euro breaking down above 130. that's the story and it will come right back into crude oil. watch the dollar. >> a strong dollar would not be good for the u.s. stock market. >> it would not be good for the u.s. stock market, but i think this market will continue to drift higher. again, with the fed, with their infusion and them keep zipping the market, this market will continue to go up. >> maria? >> michael, let me ask you about that, the currency story, because if you're looking at a move in the dollar, what do you -- which currency out there benefits? where are you seeing money moves in terms of the currency war? >> well, actually when you speak

of the currency war, there's a dynamic there because right now australia should be one of the biggest benefactors and they are not. in fact, that was the barometer on when we started to see things turn first with aussies, so if you really want to look at the most non-sexy story it's going to be the u.s. trading over canada actually. i think the dollar performs very well against canada as we're starting to get talk about a housing bubble in toronto, and with that being said, keep an eye on 1562. i think that's kind of a blowoff top in the s&p, and that would align itself with the last move up, would strengthen the dollar and then a correction in the stock market. >> ben willis, where do you see opportunities then? if you're expecting a pullback, got to put money somewhere? >> the inflows coming into the market are typical of traditional investor money. they seem to be going into the telecoms and into the utilities and into the consumer cyclicals. the stocks that they are familiar with, companies that they work with every day so that's a traditional retail investor kind of environment. i don't disagree with some of those trades. i like the idea of buying

dividend-paying stocks. like the mlps as a place to dip your toe in. >> master limited partnerships. >> some of the reiths, not the mortgage-back reits. >> ben, you just mentioned the retail investor. do you think that's who is participating or is that largely institutional? who is out there tradeing? >> i believe what we're seeing is the retail investor follow through and, again, to me it gets recertified on the first day of the month. we're seeing those kind of inflows. down earlier coming in because of the fundamental news on the pmis out of europe. the first reit should have

continued. i think what we're seeing is the investor coming back, and that's what we need and that's why i believe we'll go higher. >> alan is going with a defensive strategy of what you want to buy. you're more positive on this market short term. do you go with more growth stocks? >> you'll be very happy to invest in this market. a lot of opportunity out there. like ben said, you'll be very happy a year from now, two years from now. you'll be happy you're in this stock market no matter what group you're in. >> maria. >> ben, you keep talking about, you know, march 1st, beginning of the month. do you think it reverses on monday? >> absolutely. i would not want to go home long this market right now. as a market-maker at albert freed, trends are meant to be broken, but that's a trend i don't want to fight, particularly the fact that i'm

looking for the pullback. saw the drastic selloff last monday. we thought that was the beginning of the pullback. obviously that was not the case once again, but i do not want to be long if i don't have to be. >> quickly michael, do you think treasury yields continue lower? sort of broken through the trading rake we've been in for a while? are we going lower here, do you think? >> yes, we are. 180 seems to be the pivot point as far as where the basis will be as we start to entrench lower. again, that would coincide with a weaker stock market as we start to see the selloff. i think the treasuries still have another move higher, and i would not be surprised to see lower yields near 168. >> all right, guys. thank you all. we love trader talk around here. that's what we do on the floor of the new york stock exchange. we'll see you later. coming back with the closing countdown for this friday. maria? >> yes, and then at the top of the hour i'll be talking with the show of barclays anthony jenkins to get his outlook on the markets and what's next for business. you're watching the "closing

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