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now get 200 free trades when you open an account. . well, tonight is the premier of the all new cnbc prime. first at nye, "treasure detectives" a look inside the world of antiques and collectibles and asks us the question is it a worth fortune or is it a fake? and at 10:00 we've got "the car chasers." you saw them here on "street signs," from a shelby mistalk to a vintage hot rod. found as the guys find and fix cars, cnbc prime. >> look at that, 3,000 votes, half of you, 51%, 51.7%, said stocks would be higher and 49%

said lower. it takes -- >> what does that tell you? >> takes a buyer and a seller to make a market. we love it. >> it's a crap shoot. i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange where history may be in the books today. bill? >> no, it's that way. never get that right. i'm bill griffith, and unless we have a serious turnaround in these final 60 minutes of trading, maria, the dow is poised to close at a new all-time high so stick around. you may be watching history today, folks. >> absolutely. the dow up 133 points. right to bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. the market came out of the gates strong and stayed strong, bob. >> 14,198. the old intraday historic high and now the only suspense, 14,164, the closing high. looks pretty good that we're going to do that.

there's the dow. that's what maria is talking about, boom, right out of the market. we were helped very early on by very good numbers out of china. we also had a very nice morning in europe. most of the european markets up 1.5%. they were buying growth. that's the simple way to understand this. the dow transports, historic high as well. that's the market leader right now. energy stocks were strong and material stocks strong. that's a little bit of a lift from china. those numbers pretty good out of china. building stocks strong all throughout the day. there's another good sign. this is on the u.s. markets here. masco, armstrong, texas industries, these are companies involved in the building industries. home building stocks also strong today. finally, guys, the s&p 500 not quite there. 1560, about 25 points away here. 1564 or so and the s&p is the closing high, but i would note, bill and maria, the s&p 30% of the stocks in the s&p are trading above 2%. that's a real nice move up. a lot of good strong price action today. breadth 3-1 advancing to declyke

stocks. guys, back to you >> thank you very much. when a market hits an all-time high. there's no shortage of opinions of where we go from here. we have plenty of them right now in our closing bell exchange. joining us andres garcia at the big board, carol ross, cnbc contributor in chicago and we've got joe greco from meridian equity partners and the team of santolli and santelli. joe greco, i'm going to start with you. the mood on the trading floor for an all-time high, this is is a pretty quiet day. what's going on here. >> looking around from dow 14,2 hat whatever we were supposed to have and reached across my desk and found a bear hat. we've got the president saying things are good. you've got the leaders of corporations saying things are good and we'll start buying our stock back and got the big money manager saying the market is ripe and we'll chug along.

we're missing a big component and what that enters the market, i think all first three people will start selling to them so i'm a little cautious up here. really nice that we hit the number, and it's great, but i'm a little more bearish at this point. >> joe, what is the missing component that you're seeing that others are not seeing then? >> if you listen in the distance, look at the volume, there's really not that much noise, as bill was saying before. it's kind of quiet so it's not on record volumes that we're reaching these record highs, and it's not because of the chatter that you're hearing outside on the street, so i'm a little concerned that in reality the market can't sustain it up here because the people that are in are people that are going to be in, already in. >> andres, you and i were just talking about this before we came on the air. this could actually from a contrary standpoint be bullish for the market, the fact that there's not as much enthusiasm. >> i don't see confeting falling anywhere near around us, and to a certain extent that would worry me if i saw that.

i think relative valuation is what will continue to help the markets because, for instance, back in october '09 to 2007, the ten-year yield was above 4%. >> now bloelow 4%. >> you think this market provide value. >> in, in a relative value standpoint. >> this time around when we look at where we're in terms of a market rally, real differentiations going on in this market versus what we saw in 1989 or the last time we saw this kind of a market, and one of them is obviously the incredible amount of cash on balance sheets and another one is the fact that valuations are very different, lower than they were, and the other is the activist investor element, mike. you've got activist investors at the ready wanting to pounce if a company is not doing shareholder friendly things. that almost ensures we'll see more shareholder friendly acts rest of the year. that's another propellant to this market. >> in fact, that's to me a necessary component of this phase of a bull market where

you've kind of already reflected the increase in corporate profits and you obviously have had the liquidity story out there forever. i do think that that's one of those strand that we'll see a lot of, not even activists but just in general the idea of boards being focused on maximizing value, whether it's somebody coming in to acquire you, you going to buy something and spinning something off or exceeding to whatever demands are out there. recapitalizing yourself. that's an elment of it. i don't think it feeds so much into the tactical story. i really feel like the market has been impressive in terms of rotating and staying firm despite all the threats out there, but it feels more to me like a culmination of a short-term move today than it is something to the beginning of the upside. >> andres is here to a relative valuation looking attractive. you question the value of that valuation in this market, don't you? >> i do. first of all, i don't want to say that i don't think it's fair we didn't get the party favors so i did bring a prompt there we go. now we have the celebration, we

can get back to reality. i do question the quality of the earnings here. the earnings seem to be fairly robust if you think about where they are coming from. they have been coming from cutting a lot of sgna, coming from things like share buybacks, not being driven by top line growth and that's the concern for me. if you want very robust oriented growth valuations, we need growth, growth in revenue and eventually growth in our gdp so i think there's a bit of a disconnect there. i think you can get value from the activist stories, from the buyout stories, but that doesn't necessarily translate into good news for the broader markets. >> that's a great point because you're not seeing the kind of revenue growth that you would want to see in this kind of bull market. >> top line is not there. >> what would turn this situation around? you've got the jobs numbers out on friday. andres, what do you expect there, and is this a potential for being a game changer for this market? >> i think going forward you're going to have to see strong numbers because the market -- all it's done so far is validate what we've seen which is strong

numbers so far, so payroll, you'll have to see 150, 160 maybe for the market, you know, say let's move on, but i think really china is the story when it comes to earnings. if china picks up growth, remember, american companies are not only selling here in the united states, they are also selling abroad, so global growth matters. it's not just u.s. growth and from that perspective i think we're turning the dial a little bit on the upside. >> my friend rick santelli. you've seen many investments hit all-time highs in the past over the years. how do you assess the mood of this market as the dow sets a record today? >> i think it reminds me a lot of a parabolic move in slow motion for the old type commodity trade, so i think you have to pay very close attention, and i'd like to build on what andres started. let's look at some charts. two sets of charts. the dow jones industrial average along with the ten-year so he was right. we were over 4%. we were way over. in october -- on october 9th of

2007 we were at 4.65. you can also see a close-up and let's look at the ten-year boon against the german dax and it's a very similar scenario. they were at a yield of 4.32 so what's bugging everybody at the epicenter of the anxiety is this notion that in the old days you had good data, solid economy, upward stocks, upwar interest rates. what doesn't fit in this grouping? >> yeah. by the way, the other big's et class, gold, back in october of '07 i happen to remember is $737 compared to the $1,500 we see today so that's another one that is much more expensive today than it was five years ago. but carol roth, you've got to put money to work. where are you going to put it to work here? >> i think going back to what michael was saying and i was saying. you look for specificization. when warren buffett was on cnbc said he liked the market but what he said is he liked opportunities like heinz so i

think you look at opportunities, consumer-branded names that could be buyout candidates. you look at opportunities where there has been activism. cracker barrel was a great example of that back in february, and you look for these undervalued opportunities instead of looking to the broader market. >> joe greco, let's talk about this final hour here. what you rex expecting in terms of flow, and what are you seeing on the value side of things? >> to the buy side. >> to the buy side. >> i don't think we'll get much more of a pop out of the market, but it clearly seems to me right now by all indications that the imbalances, that we'll carry our way into the close up at the elevated levels. >> so we end up here better than 130 points or even higher. >> yeah. 135 right now. yeah, that should be the number. >> if that holds. as we well know, maria, the imbalances can change when the hour progresses and the poker game changes. >> andres, what do you like? you consider this market still a good value. where do you see the best value right now? >> to your earlier comments, it is going to become a stock picker's market, right? going to become a little tougher

just to throw a dart and hope that you hit everything, so you are going to have to look at specific sectors and look at materials, for instance, a group that's hated for the last couple of years, and if you're in the camp like i am that china is going to reaccelerate this growth, sectors like materials, sectors like industrials will do well. >> mike santolli, what do you make of the skepticism that's pervasive in the investor world about these highs? >> i really see a bifurcated psychological breakdown right now. the people who have been involved, the people who invest money for a living, i think they are mostly on board with the bullish story. you've seen that in a lot of the professional sentiment surveys, but there's a real reservoir of skepticism out in the broad public. there's a perceived disconnect at a level that it was basically at five and a half years ago and an economy still perceived as bad to. me in the big, big picture, if nothing breaks and we don't have a financial accident, it's net-net bullish because it means

there's a wall of worry out there, and if we do get through this corrective period, it means higher prices eventually most likely, so i think it's kind of interesting that you don't have everybody on board of. that being said. i remember writing in 2007 about how the little guy was not back in the market. never really made it back in that time. >> we'll see if that is happening this time around. >> thanks for all your insights. we'll see what happens as we head towards the close on this historic day. >> just about 50 minutes before the closing bell sounds. a market up 135 points on the dow jones industrial average right now. >> will this all-time high help jump start the stagnant economy? we'll take a look at that coming up. we all remember rita coolidge. >> this market may be hitting record highs, but some say the blue chip index is about to take a back seat to another index. we'll get to that trade next. >> and the ultimate market bear is back. harry dench says there's no way

this market can last and why he's sticking to his dow 6,000 call. >> and don't miss special coverage of the dow's all-time high. carl quintanilla and jim cramer will join me tonight at 7:00 p.m. live on this market. back in a moment. ♪ [ laughter ] ♪ [ female announcer ] each one of us is our own boss. ♪ and no matter where you are in life, ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future.

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welcome back. if you're just joining us, history in the making. the dow jones industrial average appeared to be poised to close at an all-time high record. the previous intraday high was 14,198. we've taken that out easily, now at 14,265, and we have 45 minutes left of trading here. maria. >> bill, let's get to some breaking news right now on jc penney. over to you, mary. >> reporter: maria, dow jones quoting sources is saying the company's directors, including bill ackman, the hedge fund investor or manager who has been a big supporter of ceo ron johnson, the headline says that the directors, including ackman, could consider replacing the company's ceo ron johnson if, if sales don't improve this year. the headlines also saying that

they would consider options for the company including the s.e.a.l. sale. now take a look at the company's stock. spiked initially as the headlines crossed and it's retreated a bit but jc penney has been under a lot of promised turnaround by mr. johnson which hasn't taken effect yet and as a result its shares have been under pressure and while there have been rumblings from underneath, this is the first sign we've seen any discouldn't from the directors. again, from dow jones quoting sources that the directors would consider pushing to replace mr. johnson if sales don't increase in a year. we'll be watching this one, maria. back to you. >> all right, mary. thanks so much. it is called the wealth effect and doesn't just apply to housing. how does the american consumer react when the market reacts to new highs? >> own steve liesman and economist lindsey pieksa back as well. do you feel the wealth effect in this economy? >> the jury is out and it will be contingent to what we hear in february as to retail sales. here's the problem.

we know the payroll tax increase and most people have most of their wealth in housing rather than? n stocks. we've had good gains when it's come to housing prices. we'll see what's happened to retail sales in february and again in march to know if what we saw in housing -- the wealth effect from housing is going to offset the payroll tax increase and keep people spending. the wealth effect from stocks is big as well. however, it more affects wealthy people than it does average everyday americans. >> lindsey, this is an indicator that actually former fed chairman alan greenspan has read into very much and used to look at this as an indicator. what do you think? when the stock market goes higher, do people feel better? do they feel richer? do they actually move with their sentiment in terms of putting more money to work shopping and buying things because they feel richer? is that wealth effect that important in terms of being an economic mover? >> oh, it's a tremendously

positive impact on the consumers? the consumer now looks at their balance sheet and they feel more wealthy. they feel wealthier. they feel on more financial positive footing. not only do consumers maintain the same level of spending but many consumers ramp up spending and have an increased appetite. it's a very similar feeling that we saw as of late with stabilization in the housing market. not seeing robust price appreciation but just the fact that homes are no long they are net drag on the balance sheet. consumers are feeling more competent. more willing to go out into the marketplace. >> i think you have to amend that a little bit. there's a lot of work, as you know, that's been done that really says it depends on how permanent people think the gains have been. >> if they think they are fleeting, then they are unlikely to spend them. >> still a lot of fear out there. still a lot of fear out there. people remember the financial debacle we went through in '08 and '09 and feel that could happen again. that has an impact. >> sure. that's going to be part of the

problem. it's going to be a short-term boost if we don't see this turn into long-term investment job creation, income growth. you're right, steve, if people don't believe that this is long-term sustainable, that it will only be a short-term blip in retail sglaels that's the key there, right, stove? is this going to lead to a long-term tangible impact to the economy, so if somebody sees the stock market going higher do, they actually go out and buy big-ticket items like a new home, things that will actually show up in the numbers for a more sustainable period of time? >> it helps and you want more wealth effect in an economy rather than less, but there's another way to think about, the way economists think about stock prices. stocks are financing, and help me out here. i think it's about 30% of u.s. corporations finance themselves or 30% of u.s. corporate financing comes from the stock market. the higher the stock price, the lower the financing cost because it says you can go out with your company stock price and buy more stuff to finance for capital investment and for expansion, and so when we look at the broad

economic effects of higher stock prices, the wealth effect comes in one part of it, but another part, maria, is the financing effects and how it helps corporations to expand. >> go ahead. >> going back to maria's question, whether or not it's going to boost home sales, it really won't. the wealth effect affects the last purchases, discretionary non-durable services, a month or two from now but won't have a dramatic impact in boosting home sales. >> and do you think there's a backlash of some kind where the americans think it's the rich that are benefiting from this market going higher, especially if they are not participating in the stock market rally, steve, so could you get a backlashes sort of an anti-wealth effect, if you will? >> you could, but i think it's fair to say one reason why the wealth effect this time around might be more muted than in the past is i think the broad framework of this economy right now, bill, is one that continues to be one of de-leveraging, of

consumers increasing their savings rate and in the absence of income gains, i think you're going to have a lot more skepticism about the stock market gains than we've had in the past where higher income gains, robust housing prices, not too much debt, wealth -- the stock market goes up and the wealth effect comes along and probably pours right into the economy. right now there's a little more skepticism about it, and the absence of income gains is going to make people spend less of it. >> steve, i completely agree with you. already the consumer has lost momentum from the third quarter. talking about increased taxes and heightened energy prices. the consumer may be able to offset some of this with the rally in the markets, but it certainly won't completely negate the negatives that are out there >> the sturdiest wall of worry that we've ever seen for the stock market. thank you for joining us. >> 40 minutes left in the trading session. we are hanging on to enough gains to see a new all-time high for the dow jones industrial

average. >> on track to close at an all-time high, but our next guest says there's another index that's about to break out and did co-make you more money moving forward. >> also, is this rally really sustainable with so many issues facing that we were just talking about? steve forbes will weigh in exclusively on that coming up later on the "closing bell." >> also, stick around for tonight's special coverage of this historic day hosted by carl quintanilla and jim cramer and myself. see you live at 7:00 p.m. eastern. see where this market heads next tonight. i have low testosterone. there, i said it. how did i know? well, i didn't really. see, i figured low testosterone would decrease my sex drive... but when i started losing energy and became moody... that's when i had an honest conversation with my doctor. we discussed all the symptoms... then he gave me some blood tests. showed it was low t.

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well, we are in uncharted waters here in the market. the dow jones industrial average up 130 points right now. we are at an all-time record high. we hit a new intraday high earlier, and we are on track to close at a new all-time high, highest level ever for the dow jones industrial average. money moving across the board in a number of sectors. very broad-based, bill. >> the dow may be hitting the all-time high but on an equal weighted basis the tech-heavy nasdaq is an even match for the industrial average this year. what's the better way to play this market in the dow that you can buy through the dia exchange-traded rate funds or the qqqs. let's talk the numbers, the qqqs versus the numbers. abigail doolittle on the technical side and fundamental side jeff kilberg who is founder of kkm financial. welcome to both of you. abigail, which do you like better, the diamonds or the qs?

>> the word to describe today's trading is froth. i think we're looking at the markets topping out. that being said for investors who would like to chase the froth, not something i necessarily recommend, the nasdaq composite or the qqqs definitely appeared to offer more upside to me than the dow. starting out with the long-term chart of the dia, we see that investors have been flirting with resistance. the ceiling of a long-term sideways trend channel for months now, very similar to 2007. the reason it appears that we'll see soon sellers push buyers back down the channel, the bearish rising wedge. the pattern that everybody is talking about right now. it shows slowing buying momentum and comprises the last part of the panic market leading into a volatile sideways range and starting to see that now, and while there's a little move up to 148, i think the bigger move in the dia that we'll notice is down to 120 and its floor for a pretty decent drop. when we look at the qqqs, we see the buyers are in troll.

they are very nice, ascending trend channels there, a similar component to what brought the nasdaq up in the last bull market. interestingly within that channel on the daily chart it appears as a head and shoulders pattern, but if you look at it in a monthly or quarterly form it's a beautiful ascending triangle comprised of higher lows. this suggests that buyers are soon going to overwhelm the sellers and target is amazingly towards 80 so maybe 5% to 10% to 15% upside if the pattern really fulfills well. >> okay. >> so if you're going to chase, you want to go after the qqqs right now over in the dow. >> essentially in the nasdaq you're betting on apple, but if you believe apple's found a floor do you like the dow industrials as well? >> we are not getting long here. we're actually shorting the nasdaq composite here. due to the fact that we are seen this technical target like be a gal talked about in the diamond and dow jones, got fulfilled today and ben bernanke certainly

has his cigar lit and is drinking champagne. he fulfilled his mission on getting the new high but looking for a pullback, and i like being short the higher beta name, the qqq. a lot of headwinds coming up, got to get through unemployment, and the thing we're focused on right now is the it can resolution. march 27, and a lot of people are complacent and the vix backed out under 14. last monday, bill, we saw a 34% historic surge in that vix contract. therefore, there is fear just underneath the surface here, so we don't want to be long here. >> i agree with all your points. great points across the board, but if we look back at the topping action between the nasdaq and dow back in 2007, the last protruding low to the record highs at that time, august 16 and then the dow topped out on october 11th. they have gained 13% between that time period. the nasdaq didn't top out or the qqqs didn't top out until october 31st. 24% upside. so far the qs from the last

protruding low are up only 12% so i think we have a little bit more there. with you on the caution. >> very quickly, jeff, last word. >> my man bill is right here. apple. they have not found a bottom yet and, therefore, the qs cannot go higher. >> google, amazon and some of these other names. i see it there. i think that you could have one last frothy push. you know, for the brave. only for the brave to be chased. >> heading towards st. patrick's day, plenty of froth that day, i can guarantee you that. >> thank you both. >> good thoughts on the markets. >> 30 minutes before the closing bell sounds. a market that's up 126 points. s&p 500 higher into double digits. >> form eer goldman sachs vice chairman rog kaplan who says a pullback is coming. >> and jim paulsen says this rally is not a fed-induced sugar market. why he thinks the market is going nowhere but up.

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welcome back. we're making history on wall street. the dow jones industrial average in all-time record high territory. a rally on the open this morning, and it hasn't really looked back at all. the dow was up 158 at the high of the day. now a gain of 128, but still well above the highs last set in october of 2007. now trading at 14,256 with 30 minutes to go. >> news alert right now. let's get to courtney reagan with that. over to you, court. >> reporter: that's right. court just ending here down in new york city at the supreme court. martha stewart leaving the courtroom actually in a pretty good mood, much as we saw her this morning. as she walks out, she actually has her camera, she's taking pictures of the photographers taking pictures of her. everybody actually pretty patient considering everything that went on today. miss stewart almost getting into lamar odom's car. i understand he's also here at the supreme courthouse but how it unraveled is macy's lawyers tried to get stewart to agree

that she understood that macy's did have an exclusive over some of these product categories in question, but i have to say, miss stewart was very, very on point, very carefully listening to the questions, answering them very carefully with lots of background information. i think that she did fairly well. i have to say the judge getting increasingly frustrated with all of the lawyers and the process that this is going through. at one point towards the ends rubbing his eyes and taking off his glasses and even yawning a little bit. i don't know what that means for friday when the case is supposed to wrap up. we'll hear oral arguments from both sides about what to do about the non-branded martha stewart products that are supposed to go on the shelves at jc penny in time for mother's day. it's possible the judge could rule that those will need to stay off the shelves, just don't know yet. we'll be back in court to find out. maria and bill. >> could be a tough one for ron johnson. having a tough day otherwise. >> thanks so much. our next guest is saying that the fed is a big factor but not

the only factor behind the rally in stocks and is warning of a pullback ahead. >> here to make his case is robert kaplan, senior associate done for external relations at the harvard business school. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> welcome back. >> the fed has been a big part of this, but you argue the fundamentals do as well, right in. >> corporate earnings are solid. they are not great but solid. i deal a lot with ceos. it's a sluggish economic environment, and so ceos are being very careful with expenses. that's why margins are at record highs, but it's very hard to own a risk-free asset right now, and the fed and the european central bank have taken extreme tail risk off the table, so -- >> and the japanese central bank. >> and the japanese central bank, and so as a result people really don't have a lot of choice. they need to edge back into the market. >> that's the monetary policy factor, the fact that there aren't any choices, but you said

earnings are looking better. do you think this continues? >> yeah. i think earnings will continue to grind up. the only thing is that at 1540, that's a 14 times multiple on expected, for the s&p for this year of $110. the big debate is what's the right pe, what's the right price earnings issue for this market, and i think for the next few years because of u.s. government and western government de-leveraging, we'll have pretty slug sluggish gmp growth and that's the big question. with bottom line earnings justify a 14 to 15 times multiple and that's the debate. >> that's pertaining to the s&p which everybody is not watching today because it's the dow setting the all-time high. do you think it's the s&p that's poised to move here? >> most portfolio managers really do compare themselves to the broader standard & poor's of 500 stocks, and, in fact, most portfolio managers are evaluating their performance

against the s&p. the s&p, near a record, by the way, is kind of more of a driver people lock at, but they are both very high. >> in terms of the individual investors, still trying to find out if part of this rally is including the retail investor which seems to be slowly but surely coming back into this market. >> would you advise an individual today that the markets are back and put money to work. >> the retail investor is edging back in and judging from mutual fund flows, but you've got to remember the household sector in the united states is still recovering and de-leveraging. they lost a lot of value in their homes, and so i would say to most retail investors take a three to five-year perspective and make sure you've got some dry powder. don't get overextended in the market, but -- but it makes sense to have some portion of your asset allocation in the market, and -- and take a long-term deal. >> and what about the fed? we can't ignore it? they have said they are steadfast with this quantitative easing program that provides the liquidity, keeps the long-term

yields low and until we get to 6.5% unemployment which ben bernanke says won't happen for a few years? >> the fed, yes. the fed seems to be making clear that they are going to be at this for a while, i mean, in the years, not in the months. >> doesn't it bode well for the stock market? >> it does, and people forget ben bernanke's term is up in january of 2014, and we don't know for sure, but it looks like janet yellin has a very good chance to take his place, and she's of the same view. we may be in the sweet spot of not great corporate earnings, not a great economy, but dos en won't last forever. >> yeah. but this brings me to the next question and that is if bernanke is not going to be here when it's time to clean up. >> he's not. >> what does this mean? he put all the stimulus in place and he leaves and somebody else comes in. i rec noise that they are in the same mindset on this stuff, but janet yellin is not the person who started this qe, and is this going to end badly in. >> it might.

let's put it this way. we don't have any experience on how this ends because in our lifetime we've never seen a fed this aggressive. people criticized greenspan for the '90s. >> you're right. this is more aggressive than anything we've seen and warren buffett warned about it yesterday, and he's right. there could be some disruption when it's time to exit, and that's why the fed is having these debates in their closed door meetings, although they are public, about how we're going to exit this, because they are going to need to start thinking about it because what they don't want is rates to start spiking up. they are long treasuries, and could incur a big long and they don't want to disrupt it. >> could it happen another way though? don't you think at some point when he signals, you know, rates are going to start moving, they will start moving fast? >> i think the most important thing the fed needs do is on these asset purchases, start winding those down first so they can keep low rates for an extended period of time and where they can get caught is on

the asset purchases, if they don't liquidate those in a slow, methot call way, and i'm sure they are debating that there. >> can't wait to see the lesson plan. >> it will be a good case study. >> i teach leadership and this is all about it. the last leadership point is the fed is not doing this as a solution to the economy. the fed is doing this to buy time for people in d.c. to actually get the deficit in shay. they are buying a bridge. >> why is he bailing everybody out? >> i think he's a student, as you know, of the depression. >> right. >> he knows for the u.s. government to do fiscal restraint you need an easy fed. i think he hoped the u.s. government would move faster and better get a move on soon which is why the market is not having a very negative reaction to sequester. i think the market doesn't like the way they are doing it but are glad they have gotten started. thanks for joining us today. >> good to see you. >> the dow hanging in there and up 134 points.

this will easily be a new all-time high for the industrial average. >> is this the beginning of a new leg, a new start of a multi-year bull market or not? bob pisani breaking down what's next for this market. that's coming up. >> and tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time top money managers explain how you should invest in what's likely to be a new all-time high dow. >> and cnbc prime. "beginning with treasure detectives" tonight at 9:00 p.m. eastern on cnbc. if you think running a restaurant is hard, try running four. fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase.

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take a look at where we stand here with just about 15 minutes to go before today's close. we've got a market that's up 144 points, nearing the highs again. all-time high, record high, reached earlier. we are headed to close at a new all-time closing high for the market. very much a broad-based situation. rock 'n' rolling market today, bill. >> let's bring bob pisani back in who has that front row seat like many of us all the way from the bottom of what march of '09? >> 6547, the dow industrials. >> march of '909. >> 120% move in four years.

you know, guys, everybody who comes on here and says it's just the fed, it's just the fed. they are kidding themselves. i would agree the fed is a major reason why the stock market has rallied, no doubt about it, but record high earnings, we have record high in 2012 and record high in between around if you look at the numbers, the dow is up 120% from that low in . corporate earnings are up about 4% since then and have kept up. the difference between the 1125 and 120 points, maybe there's a difference because the fed has been involved, but it's the earnings that still matter, that's my point. >> a tremendous paint in the markets, hitting the all-time high, but there are plenty of people who people left out of this rally who are not in this market, not feeling that wealth effect that we've been talking about. >> listen works could not share

their skepticism, bill? you and i have been here north of 20 years and maria, you've been here, too. 2000 when the we come bubble hit, the baby boomers were young. we were in our late 30s and 40s and could afford getting a hit. in 2008 you got hit on real estate, and you got hit on the stock market, and many people, my heartbreak soaw this, sold a the bottom on both of them. a double whammy you cannot recover from heading towards your retirement years and that's why so many people are skeptical, and who can blame them. >> ten minutes before the closing bell sounds, a market up 136 points on the dow jones industrial average. >> meaning we're likely closing at a record high, so now what? >> kerry webbush says investors will be shock how high this market goes this year. that's coming up next. and should you listen to what bush or is it time to buy protection for your portfolio? answers you cannot afford to

miss when maria, carl quintanilla and jim cramer host special coverage of this historic close coming up tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time right here on cnbc. carfirmation. only hertz gives you a carfirmation. hey, this is challenger. i'll be waiting for you in stall 5. it confirms your reservation and the location your car is in,

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heading towards the close

with about ten minutes left unless we have a big event in the last ten minutes but doesn't look like it's going to happen. the dow at a gain of 118 at 14,164, taking out the last high we saw in october 2007. we've come back. essentially come round turn now from the financial crisis that plagued us in 2008 and began. from the dow to the s&p some say many traders will be shocked at how high the s&p s by the end of the year. >> gentlemen, good to see you. thank you so much for joining us. michael, let me kick this off with you. what kind of conviction are you seeing on that trading desk today in terms of investors buying and wanting to commit to this market longer term? is this long-term commitment in this market from your

standpoint. i think there's more room on the upside. >> you call yourself an uber bull. what kind of parameters are you setting for yourself here? >> well, what it really means, you know, my 20-year trading investing, i don't think i've ever felt more confident or optimistic about the u.s. equity markets. i really expect the markets to trade well above these new milestones this year, and i think that traders and investors are actually going to be shocked by the end of the calendar year, high high the s&p is. >> do you have a number in mind? >> well, i knew you asked me that, but, you know, if it's up 10%, another 150 points, that's well below the shocking level so i think higher than that. >> okay. of course i'm going to ask, that's my job, right? >> larry, a lot of people are

wondering if it's more than just the fed, if actually the economic backdrop has changed. now, my argument is it's the activist investor pressure that's also part of this rally story, but talk to us about the broad economic fundamentals? >> well, i think it's amazing how well the u.s. economy has come through the tightening and fiscal policy, so, obviously the sequester cuts haven't taken effect yet, but we have big tax hikes at the beginning of the year, a lot bigger than the spending cuts, and yet the pmis have hit new highs. jobless claims keep going down. auto sales came out, and you need a lot of confidence to buy a car, very well, and really the consumer should be getting hit here and it hasn't. >> i think that's right. part of the story. not just the fed. >> the unemployment numbers on friday. could that be a game changer? what are you expecting? >> expecting to see something around trend 150 and 160 on payrolls. we do think the unemployment

rate ticks down, but, you know, if you look at jobless claims, they are going down. pmis, as i say, going up. the economy seems to be absorbing these fiscal hits pretty well, and i think that's helping also. >> market trending lower as we head towards close. we did get word as we came out of commercial that the bias was to the downside, on the sell side here at the close, and the dow is up now 116, well off the high when we were up 158 at the peak of the day. michael shay, what do you make of the mood of the market? if you feel this market is going higher, what's going to take us there, do you think? >> i think there's a little bit of an interesting touch of reality. we're in a -- we're in a market where we're really and truly climbing a wall of wory. >> big time. >> right. >> so this is a different kind of market than that -- than that great market we had maybe 15 years ago when we had a lot of stability and a lot of different areas. what i like about this market is

actually that we're doing all of this without a lot resolved. if we get resolution to a lot of these issues, europe, our own problems in washington, unemployment and the fact that a lot of people in this country are not participating the way they ought to be, i think this market really takes off, and we've had -- we've had 13 years where if you put your money in this market 13 years ago at the turn of the century, you're up 10%. you've up less than a percent a year, so a lot of investors doesn't know that markets have great strength when they are moving in the right direction. >> gary? >> i look at this a little differently in the sense that i think the worry part is already priced in. we eve seen reduced risks around europe, reduced risk of a chinese hard landing and seen the worst of the u.s. economic policy. for the obama administration we've seen the worst and the u.s. economy going on. i think what's happening is investors are coming to grips that bond yields aren't going

down any more, and with coupon rates so low the stock market looks much more attractive than what you get in fixed income. we're move into a different leg of the rally where you're seeing funds a little more friendly towards equities. >> but you just say the economy is going to improve, so as we continue to see these incremental movements, do rates spike? >> what i'm thinking is the economy is going to hold in here. in other words, a lot of fiscal tightening, at least a percentage and a and a half of gdp. the first quarter right now is tracking 1.5, so that's -- i wouldn't call that great? yeah. >> but if you have a point and a half of fiscal tightening and you get 1.5, that's pretty good. >> gary, we haven't forgotten about you. since the last high in october 2007, the only four s&p sectors have been positive in this period of time. the consumer discretionary, the consumer staples, health care and technology. everybody is lower in that time.

do you go with the lower trending and hope that they catch up, or do you go with what brung us here, those that have been strong in the last five years? >> well, look, you know, i think you go with what's leveraged to a strengthening economy. you know, all rallies climb walls of worry. >> yeah. >> always going to have our worries and concerns, but let's take it back to the fundamentals, you know. this market has very, very strong legs. were eve got very cheap money. we've got reasonable valuations on a historical basis and a go-forward basis, but most importantly we have accelerating earnings. the past few quarters have been fueled really by efficiency gains, cost cuts, and now going forward we'll see sales growth because of the strengthening economy. that's going to give us tremendous operating leverage and explosive earnings growth. >> that's what we have to see. >> that's really going to fuel this market going forward. the other thing i mentioned, too, there really is kind of a

lack of euphoria with a market that's really performed well over the last six months. >> yes. >> so that's really a bullish indicator as well. i think most private investors remain really on the sidelines. the in flows to mutual funds are good, but they are moderate. >> right. >> lastly i would say i think that you're seeing the tip of the m & a iceberg here. companies have stabilized, and now they are looking to grow. the easy answer for growth is making acquisitions. you're going to see a lot of going private deals and see financial buyers taking advantage of cheap debt. >> right. >> tons of cash on balance sheets. >> that's why i mentioned earlier the active investor. i think that's a really important point, gary. let me brick in peter costa on the floor of the new york stock exchange. tell me what you're seeing inters of the imbalance here. we saw there was stock for sale and did come off of the highs as a result. still buying interests in financials, yes? >> absolutely. we're seeing the market to the south side on the close.