now in venezuela? a lot of people asked that question, the only answer i've been able to give is, at least now, we get to find out. what's going to also be crucial to investors, maria, remember, a lot of people do own venezuelan bonds and venezuelan oil bonds. one of the few places within the bond market, where you could still get yield. 12%, as little as a year ago, even though they had rallied a lot on the anticipation that chavez would die, and so these yields have fallen to something like 6%. but still, a very high yield considering the environment that we are in, maria. >> i know he was very sick, michelle. >> yeah. >> how long has he been sick and, i guess he just died from that sickness? >> it's hard to know exactly. he's been sick for more than a year. the government wouldn't even admit for a very long time that he was sick. and even now, today, the vice president said that the reason he got sick is because he had been attacked by some conspiracy and somehow, given chavez the cancer from apparently from

which he was dying. the only way we know is a family doctor of chavez claims he's been told by family is that he had a sarcoma, a cancer of the soft tissue. remember, he did a lot of his medical treatment in cuba. purposely, because he could get secrecy there. that was the last time we saw him in person, december 11th, he got off a plane there. we've seen a couple of photos since then, but really no sign of him. back to you. >> hugo chavez dead tonight. michelle, thank you so much. before we go, look at the day on wall street. and it was a good one. we finished at the highest level ever. record-setting day for the dow jones industrial average. up 125 points. finishing at an all-time high. volume picked up at the end of the day. nasdaq picked up 42 points, that's way below its all-time high, above 5,000, but the nasdaq up 42 points. s&p 500 up 14 1/2 points at 1539. all-time highs today, disney,

travelers, good day. don't miss our special coverage tonight, 7:00 p.m. eastern, live on what happens tomorrow for the dow's record high. in the meantime, stay with cnbc, because "fast money" begins now. take it away, melissa. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. running with the bulls. the dow's at a record high and this rally might be different than any we have seen before. one of the most respected technicians on the street breaks down why. chip on the shoulder? find out what chip stock has two of 0 our traders riled up and ready to rumble. tarnished. gold bugs beware there are two signs that say even more pain could be instore. but first, straight to our lead story. the dow closing at a record high as a bull market gets set to turn for. so, steve grasso, you were on the floor of the exchange when this happened. what was the mood? >> this has been the most anticipated selloff that never was, right? so, you continue to be the long

the things you believe in. i've been long google. in and out of the trade with traders, right? i've been in and out of the trade. i went to vacation, cleared everything off in google, bought it back at 801. closed at 838. i remain bullish on the name. >> dan nathan, you have been a self-pronounced bear for some time. >> skeptic. >> position that hasn't necessary prooiven right at thi point. do you give that up? >> no. i'm a trader at the end of the day, but when i'm trading the markets here, when everyone is looking up, i tend to look down a little bit. a day like today, it was a little anti-climactic. we never got that selloff. we got, what, 1.5%, 2%, and now a dow at new highs. what i was doing today is ke keeping an eye on stuff that i thought showed very poor relative strength. at the end of the day, i bought puts in morgan stanley and -- >> what was the price action that made you think that? >> it closed the low of the day,

massively underperformed. i think only up 40 byes. the same thing for morgan stanley. they were going back and forth. that's not good price action. i'm looking out a month or two. i'm not trying to pick a top here. these are going to be positions that i work into. >> the price action of the overall market, dr. j, right out of the gates, we hit that record high, we nailed it, we stuck to it and you said -- >> stuck it. >> right. stuck it and we stuck with it, but we could have seen a selloff in the final hour as we've seen in the past. >> yeah, exactly. and i think a lot of folks were certainly looking for that. they were thinking, we're going to see that flip in the final hour, as maria and as you always say, the most important hour of the day. and instead, we didn't get the selling. people were scared. they were caught. i think all the bears that are out there are still chasing it. what would i do here? do what dan said, because i think that's good advice. you can snug up some puts underneath the market here. go out and buy something, too. because i think -- the reason vegas lets you play with chips

and not cash is, then it doesn't seem real. i think you need to realize that this is real money you've made. if you are somebody that basically burned the 401(k) statements when they came because you were so upset about how much money you lost, take a look at your allocations now. because you might want to basically make some adjustments. doesn't mean we have to go down. just means maybe that you change the allocation because maybe you are a little too heavy in equities after this route. >> oh, really. >> one of the great things about the show, we give trade and investments, as well. one of the stocks we mentioned was serna for a number of reasons. but that stock has been a monster ever since. look at the price action today. certain cerner, my top trade. in terms of the action, we talked about the s&p getting to 1550. here we are now. a lot of people are looking for the reversal today, it didn't happen. that's what you're looking for. it opens up 10 to 12 handles,

reversing lower. >> 1565.15 is the s&p all-time closing high. so, that is the number we're looking forward to in the next couple of sessions, perhaps. dr. j, in terms of technology, relative price action, right? we were talking about that. technology, really an outperformer today. finally, finally with the participation of apple. >> yeah. we have done this without apple. since september, as we all know. i'm not saying that apple is back all of a sudden, but today, as it flushed under 420 and then came roaring back, at least, you know, back into the 403030s, ths a little bit of a roar. that was a nice move. look at cisco today. huge buying in the weekly calls in cisco. the stock was up really strong. i think that's a place to be. >> i think those are two great names. for people who want -- >> which ones? >> cisco. i tell you, old tech that still has some growth, up know, apple,

cisco, not talking about the microsoft and intel just yet, but ebay, qualcomm, some of these things, to me, are -- you know, they haven't gone parabolic yet, okay? so, if the market continues to go here, it has to broaden out. those are names you can move into. rather with going like grasso's google. >> but you wouldn't have been a buyer in google from 700. the whole point is, sometimes you have to hold your nose, buy what works -- >> you picked a great spot at 700, the stock had -- >> right, but you know how difficult it was. we talked about it on the desk. it is difficult to buy a stock that's outperformed. when i came back from vacation, the stock was trading $800. i said, i sold it at $791, i said, i missed it here. i bought it ba, took a little bit on the chin and you watch it rally again. >> quickly on apple. is this going to be a head fake in terms of this move higher? >> i believe so. qualcomm is the one. go. >> all right.

want to go back to michelle at headquarters with a developing story of hugo chavez. >> hugo chavez has died today at 4:25 p.m., according to the vice president of venezuela. he just announced it on national television in venezuela. the 58-year-old leader had led the country for 1 ye2 years, battled cancer for more than a years a least. the country was extremely secretive about chavez's illness. he went to cuba for secrecy. the reason the markets care about this is, venezuela is a large producer of oil and their oil production has been declining. we can show you a chart that when chavez took over, more than 3 million barrels of oil per day being produced by venezuela. but due to lack of 0 investment, he fired a lot of the skilled workers. and it has started to decline. so, the question, the markets have always posed is, once chavez was gone, are we going to start to see more reinvestment in the oil sector again in venezuela to once again supply

world oil markets? there was a time when it was expected that by now, venezuela would be producing 6 million barrels of oil per day. they're nowhere near close to that, of course. below 3 million barrels, guys. >> michelle, stick around. i want to bring in addison armstrong for the reaction in the energy markets. addison, what have you seen so tonight? >> well, initially, we saw brent and wti trade up about 30, 40 cents but they have vince traded back down. you know, the news came out late in the day for it to impact the markets and certainly this is a much longer term story than one would anticipate seeing in a quick move in the markets late in the day. >> addison, really quick, if the elections are coming up, isn't that what really moves this marketplace? the olds favor that the v.p. probably takes over and no change in policy, so, pretty much looking at the standard policies that we've seen already, correct? >> i wouldn't -- i would not bet that way necessarily.

you know, there was a lot of opposition that was held down by a very heavy state security apparatus the last time around. the election was closer than people would have thought. although chavez did manage to eek out a victory. and, you know, there's been a lot of good things, but a lot of bad things that have happened in venezuela over the past 12 years and this is going to be a time of reckoning. >> michelle, what is your take on political status quo? >> i'm not sure that maduro, the vice president that was named the heir apparent by chavez, has the ability to corral that country the way that chavez could do. i'm not sure he has that power. so, i think you're going to see a splintering within chavez's own party, and, so, i think political instability is a very, very big possibility. the other aspect to the market, venezuelan country and oil bonds, which are fairly widely

held. they are one of the few places you can get yield for a long time. yielding 12%. but they rallied so much in anticipation of chavez dying that yield dropped to 6%, which, by the way, still pretty big for this kind of environment. >> yeah. last question to you, addison, tomorrow's session, what is your playbook at the open for oil? >> you know, i'm not sure. you know, the market hasn't really shown a reaction. like i said, i think this is much more of a long-term story. i don't know if there is a play tomorrow, to be quite honest with you. >> all right. we're going to leave it there. addison armstrong with tradition energy and our thanks to michelle caruso cabrera. let's bring in don yakman of yakman asset management, he's with us on the "fast" line. don, great to speak to you onto. a lot of investors are wondering, have they missed out on this rally. what would you say to them?

>> i -- i don't know, i'd like to see lows rather than highs, but i think it's -- i think the short-term is very, very difficult to predict in trying to make belt bets on the stock market. >> let's take a year horizon at this point. >> yeah, i just think -- well, we tend to buy individual issue us, rather than the market, so, that's where we stay. we just don't try to predict the market long-term. i just -- i just see the values evaporating as the market goes up. >> right. >> that's what the central tendency is, and that's what i'm seeing now. there aren't nearly the value there were several months ago. >> okay. let's go to specific issues, then. you say proctor & gamble is your favorite stock. this is trading at a 17 multiple, 19 forward multiple at this point. should investors pay those kinds of multiples for these staple stocks? >> here's the problem. first of all, what we do is, we

project out forward risk adjusted rates of the term, so, we think of proctor & gamble and then we look at stocks like their bonds. we think proctor & gamble is like a an aaa bond. and, while, on a relative basis, it's great, on an absolute basis, it's just okay. why i say a relative basis, the long-term bond in our opinion is just very overpriced. and so everything looks good relative to long-term treasuries. but that becomes dangerous over time. >> so, don, how dangerous, in terms of your danger cold, one to ten danger, are we at eight, nine, ten, looking toar to look individual stocks. all i would say is, i don't -- you know, this is -- this is getting to be less and less of a bargain. situation out there. i would be a little bit more cautious, but that doesn't mean it won't go up, okay? >> don, real quick, is there

anything with the market that we see that's run up that made you a little shy here on buying stocks? is there anything that's not -- that the multiples don't look horrendous to you on? >> well, again, i tend to tell people, look at our top holdings, because we will put the most money in where we think the best risk adjusted returns are. and, i mean, something like coke, which has had kind of a period of time where it's been a little bit weaker, i mean, it seems to me that if you're a long-term investor, that those are the kind of things you want to look at, rather than something that's just before roaring. >> got it. >> don, thank you for your time. appreciate it. phoning in on this historic day. don yacktman. let's get back to the question of multiples. a lot of people on the desk will say, stick with what has been working. what's been working is some of the staples names, like a prock for and gamble, which are trading more than apple and

google -- >> you mentioned on the morning show, general mills, those stocks really didn't perform that grand. today might be just a one off, but they didn't perform today. maybe you are having some rotation out of the names you just mentioned into some of the names that people look for more beta about. i still think those names work. i think proctor & gamble is rich. we're going to talk about j and j later. i think given valuation that's much more interesting at this point. >> yeah, i mean, i'm with you on proctor. i don't really understand what don was saying there. here is a company that's trading 19 times forward earnings, expected to earn and sales only 5% for the next few years. expensive stock trading at all-time highs. what do you do with it here? there's more risk. i think that's what he was saying. maybe he's quietly selling it. >> all right, so, what are the names you invest in right now? >> well, you look at the breakout in trannies. they continue to go higher. transportation's hit another high today.

and then you look at heavy equipment. that's doing the really heavy lifting, me list sachlt i'm looking at oshkosh up 32%, for military and fire trucks and so forth. you look at the big moves these guys are making, that's big dollars being committed. that's durables. i like that. >> all right, coming up next, csi markets. a top technician highlights what the charts say about the rally's strength. and later, can this bull market laggard redeem itself? and as we head to break, look at the sectors that helped the market recover since the last peak in 2007. yeah, you remember back then. more "fast money" straight ahead. i know what you're thinking...

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to deposit checks from anywhere. [ wind howling ] easier than actually going to the bank. mobile check deposit. easier banking. standard at citibank. welcome back. let's look at some of today's market and macro data. see how it compares back to 2007. now, today, the ten-year yield is less than half of what it was in 2007. junk bond yields are lower, as well. the vix at 14, while gold has nearly doubled in price and despite the prolonged weakness we've seen in the yen, the u.s. dollar is actually down against the japanese currency since '07. from a macro perspective,

un34r0i789 hu unemployment has nearly doubled. the size of the fed balance sheet has nearly tripled and u.s. debt had bloomed. so, a lot of things are different. are we in a better shape now -- >> it depends, if you look, to jon's point, if you look at your 401(k), you are in a much better position, but on a fiscal basis, the united states, i think that people have really true concerns with where the country is going. but that doesn't matter. we're trading stocks, stocks look better, that's where you're buying the market. but the day of reckoning, when it comes, ander with head the analysts say it, pull your money when ben bernanke takes his foot off the gas. >> if you look at stocks and you look at companies, their balance sheets, would be probably on the whole, much stronger at this point, more cash on the balance sheet, less leverage, et cetera. >> and ben isn't just trying to force ma and pa to get their money out of bonds and into stocks. he is trying to force these corporations to do it, as well. and whether or not that means

factory expansions or whether it's a distribution network, whatever it might be, that's what he's doing with this policy on -- >> does it all come to a screechscreec screeching halt, though? does it become the show me market? do companies start to pull back on investment and see -- they wait and see, as well, does that hurt earnings? >> that remains to be seen. >> all right. real cliff hanger there. let's go to the charts now. our next guest says what is driving this rally is way different than what we saw in 2007, so, let's get to the charts. check the details with the manager director of yamada research. great to see you. >> thank you. >> let's talk about the dow transports. another all-time high. that would be a good thing for most theorists. >> yes, absolutely. but when the dow joins it and they both make a new high, as they did today, you are in a much better position, in terms

of the bull market. >> right. so, walk us through, so, still, you see a buy signal from the dow theory, correct. >> yes, absolutely. >> let's get to the next chart. the s&p 500, we have it from 1998 and we had a couple of tops back then. >> okay. we did. and certainly there's been a lot of question about to whether or not you're going to see a triple top here, but i have to tell you that as we were moving into 2000, we were suggesting structure bear market, you had major tops in the consumers, in thepharmaceuticals, major tops coming into play. in 2007, major tops in the home building and the financials, moving clients out of it. today, you can't really say. that you have some extended names. you don't have a plethora of major tops. and you do have stocks that are coming out of bases, as we've seen in the dow, which we'll look at. but the point is, right now, we do have momentum confirmation.

we have a little -- we have just achieved, not at this peak, but the first peak here, we achieved a very high level of new highs. you've had the market coming in, new york stock exchange advance decline line. operating companies, all of them at new highs. so, you would anticipate some kind of negative divergence is coming into place before you get a more serious decline. you're in an uptrend, the uptrend is still intact. the november low is the key support level at this point. so, it's a question of yes, you're going to get a pull-back at some point, but the question is, from what level? >> you like the chart here. let's go into individual names. i'm sure people are wondering what's going on here. disney is one -- >> all right. well, one of the things that's very key is that last april, we started sharing with our clients that a lot of dow stocks were in up to ten-year bases. and from that point forward, we've seen breakouts. you've got a breakout in disney. this is more than a ten-year base. and it's just lifting.

so, the bigger the base, the higher in space. you have that for many of the dow stocks, you've got it. we have -- i mean, ibm was the first, which might now be consolidating. coca-cola, mmm, proctor & gamble, home depot -- >> all of these fit. >> they all fill that basing n configuration. you can't call it a top. >> the longer the base, the higher in space. >> never heard that before. that's why i love it when louise comes on. the rhymes she can give. i ask her one question going back, sort of, to the dow. you talked about everything's in place for this to continue higher. does any of the macro stuff factor in? i know we talk europe from time to time, but does anything going on in sort of the rest of the world factor into this or do you sort of leave well enough alone? >> well, i think that the tech any cams have to tell your tale. we've been worried, there are periods along the way that we've been worried, too, until you start to see these things break out of ten-year bases, first

some reason, it looks as though there's more to come. we have support levels, oh, and the other thing is, it's been a gradual breakout through the 2007 levels. the small caps and the mid-caps broke out in 2011, the tra transports in early 2013. you anticipate that these other e indicies are going to follow suit. and, of course, that has been our definition of new structural bull markets. you've got consumer staples as a sector that's broken out through ten-plus years of consolidation. the consumer discretionary and technology. >> technology in particular, no surprise, no coincidence today, we finally had technology participate. really outperformed the markets overall. >> yeah. >> helping us get to the record highs. do you see a good chart for technology going forward? >> well, we saw the breakout in 2012, through a ten-year consolidation base. there's been a lot of disappointment on the partal of

microsoft and intel, which, by the way, are two dow stocks that have extended bases. they could extend longer. but in apple, of course, has been disappointing recently. so, if you select -- and you always have to be selective in technology, because the moment something becomes commoditizcom it's over. so, yes, i think the technology is trying, also, to participate here. i think the one area that we wouldn't like so much is the materials, with the exception of specialty chemicals, which has been soaring. >> right. okay. >> and that's a small weight in the s&p 500. 3%. >> louise, thank you for stopping by. >> my pleasure. >> all right, so, dan, go to you. louise likes what she sees so far in technology. do you? >> here's the thing. she talks about the gradual bases and that makes a lot of sense. they need to build steam in order to break out. when up think about staples, they went up in a straight line last year. a lot of it, in my opinion, because they were bond proxies, they were defensive. when you come back to technology, the balance sheeting

are looking better. they are looking more cyclical. i don't like the gradual breakout. i don't like the ones that are breaking out to all-time highs here, either. i don't think it's sustainable. the earnings growth we've had is largely predicated by the shenanigans going on in the fed. the companies have been buying back stock, okay, and they've been cutting costs and they haven't been doing what doc is saying. they haven't been building factories and hiring. so, to me, i think equities are very precarious. >> everything that you just stated is still bullish for the stock. >> what's gdp? >> doesn't matter if the company becomes more efficient -- >> not if they don't have growth. >> i hear you, but it's still to the stock price and that's why you see the price. might be terrible for you on a level to analyze on a -- >> we bottomed four years ago, where was china's gdp? low teens. 7.5% right now. everybody got freaked out the other day.

they saved us four years ago. if they don't save us now, where is the demand going to come from? >> your point is exactly on on the ben bernanke. i think once he takes his foot all the pedal, i think you are spot on, then you move your money out. coming up next, what's in the cards for these stocks hitting highs and lows? stay tuned for a special hold 'em or fold 'em. and, a look at whether the dow's surge could spur commod y commodities buying. we dive into gold and oil. much for "fast" straight ahead. carfirmation.

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a hairline fracture to the mandible and contusions to the metacarpus. what do you see? um, i see a duck. be more specific. i see the aflac duck. i see the aflac duck out of work and not making any money. i see him moving in with his parents and selling bootleg dvds out of the back of a van. dude, that's your life. remember, aflac will give him cash to help cover his rent, car payments and keep everything as normal as possible. i see lunch. [ monitor beeping ] let's move on. [ male announcer ] find out what a hospital stay could really cost you at aflac.com. stocks and sentiment soaring today. but should investors be turning up the fear gauge in this rally?

and doc, you saw some, what? what did you see in the vols here? >> strong volumes again today. and the futures coming down as fast as the spot. you take a look, the march futures were down 50 cents with the s&p -- i'm sorry, with the cash vix down 50 cents. the april futures were down 30 cents. again, with the cash down 50 cents. so, that's telling you that the fear is shrinking as far as the amount of folks that believe we're going to see a breakout as far as multi-percent moves to upside or downside. >> interesting you mention it. spot vix today is well higher than it was when it bomb tommed out a couple of weeks ago. yet, the s&p is at multiyear highs and the dow is making new highs. so, to me, there remains a level of fear that i think we are so early in the year, we saw that 35% spike last montd in the vix. people know it can happen again. i think you're going to see a higher level of volatility going forward for the next few months. >> all right, but for now, what

the futures curve is telling us -- the moves that we could see off of these record highs would be small to the upside or down side, so, maybe we hold steady at least for now. >> and you could see multiple, for instance, half percent, three quarters of a percent in the mauve, whether that's up or down. could be five days in a row winners. and, yet, the vix would be right. so, people that keep saying it's broken, it's broken, no, it's not. the moves are smaller. today's 1% move is an exception. >> let's move on. sometimes it is tough to buy the losers and sell the winners. so, let's play a little hold 'em or fold 'em. >> love this game. >> a lot of the choose from today. so, here are the eight. first up, yahoo!. trading at a five-year high. shares have soared more than 50% in the last year. grasso? >> this is marissa mayer's tu turnaround story. next stop for this is $24. that's your resistance. above that, 27. you hold this stock. it's been performing well. >> all right.

>> hold 'em! >> fedex. trading at a five-year high. shares up 19% in the past year. the shiching company has helped drive the dow transports, the trannies, to a record high. dan? >> fold 'em, obviously. i mean, this thing is up 25% -- >> i could have say almost anything and you would say fold 'em. >> fold 'em. >> when you think about it, here is a stock that was trading, you know, $5 lower just last week and here we are, breaking out. that's fantastic. but just like louise said, this doesn't seem like a gradual breakout. take your profits and look for better industry. >> louise sounded a lot more bullish than you just did. >> can i get a gauge of how debbie downer you are? is there a stock you would buy right now? you are down this market -- >> what was that inverse s&p -- >> the sds or -- >> yeah. that's, all right. there you have it. debbie downer here to my right. next up, celgene.

>> guy? >> right out of the gate, hold 'em. it's a monster that continues to perform. this is a bio-tech company with a balance sheet like general electric, candidly. this stock wants to go higher. hold 'em. >> is that you saying hold 'em or fold 'em? sounds like you. >> i did it a couple of days ago. worked out well. no? >> not so much. proctor & gamble. p&g, the third best performer in the dow this year. what do you say, dan? >> fold 'em here, people. >> ah. >> you are no fun. >> to me, it comes to value. they're growing at 5% a year for the next few years, trading at 19 times, you said it yourself, mel. >> csx hitting a 52-week high. stocks popped 15% in the past year. dr. j, hold 'em or fold 'em? >> well, and you take a look at guy's stop, kansas city southern, ksu, another rail play. and that one's up 26%, just in the last two months. so, i think this one's got room to run. i would hold 'em.

>> all right. next up, american express. stock rising more than 20% in the last year. stephen p. grasso, hold 'em or fold 'em? >> you're going to be holding this one, as well. much to the chagrin to dan nathan. the chart looks impeccable. one of these things you buy what's working. american express, still continues to work. >> all right. davita is next up. shares soaring 800% in the past ten years. guy, hold 'em or fold 'em? >> monster. hold 'em. buffett spoke about it the other day. valuations aren't stretched. i mean, we're not talking mid 20s here, mid-teens. so, yeah, this stock continues to go higher. >> a lot of hold 'ems. finally, time warner. shares rising almost 50% in the past year. doc, hold 'em or fold 'em? >> i would fold this one. >> oh! >> i'm jumping in with my bear suit and joining dan nathan. i don't have anything against time warner, but this move, especially in the media stock

space, has been too much too fast. i think you get a better entry, $4, $5 lower. >> all right. coming up next on "fast money," what is driving the gold bugs, as investors embrace stocks. but first, the world's top chip maker sitting out of the four-year rally. jon and guy battle whether intel can redeem itself. >> is that a -- that's not -- >> he doesn't blink. >> all right. it's for real. all right. street fight is coming up next. as we head to break, take a look at the best and worst performing stocks on the dow since the last time we hit a record high. stay tuned.

one stock left out of the latest leg of this bull market, intel. shares are down 17% over the past year. the world's leading chip maker igniting a street fight between jon and guy. jon is our bull. guy is the bear. total of 90 seconds to make the case. so, doc, kick it off. >> all right. here's what you got, guy. >> go. >> cap x, that's what everybody was complaining about this last earnings report. they're spending too much money.

that's a good thing, because credibility, nobody's got better creditability than intel. nobody has better technology. people that are telling me, arm holdings and so forth, no way. and then you look at experience. people aren't going to be putting server farms in using amcc or using armholdings. this is where intel eats their lunch. credibility, technology and experience. >> they have an imbeckable balance sheet. but the one thing, price is truth. since this time last year, the stock is down about 27.5%. the 52-week high was 29 and change in early april. that, and you have to ask yourself, is the stock telling you that maybe they missed the whole mobile world? maybe they missed it. maybe they are too big to embrace it. i don't know. but the stock is trying to telling you something. those are my arguments. price is truth. the stock has not performed in what's been a monumental rally. maybe there's more than meepts the eye.

>> that new adam chip is going to be a killer chip. those folks that work with the servers and so forth tell me that. i believe them. if they are telling me the wrong thing, then we'll find out. >> going to find out. and to doc's point, it did seem to put in a decent double bottom here around 20 bucks, but again, when a stock doesn't perform on the type of broader market rally we've seen, you have to ask yourself what's going on. >> all right, so, dan, ask yourself, what's going on? >> first of all, was that a street fight or a love fest? i mean, really guys. here's one, i agree with guy here. these guys -- >> oh, what a shock! a bear agreed with guy? >> these guys didn't only miss the trend to mobile, it's over. they're going to have to make a transformative acquisition -- >> the server chips that dr. j is talking about, isn't that going to be the next thing? everybody needs server farms? come on. >> i think it's dead money. >> grasso? >> agreed.

technicals, you don't care why the stock price moves, you just care that it does and the fact is, it hasn't been moving the proper way. >> wow. so, doc, you are just left out in the cold there all by yourself. the lone bull, but the price action. you would get in at this point though it's not seen any sort of lift? >> that's one of the reasons i buy it. because it's a $21 stock. it was $29 this time last year or peaked out at $29. i think it goes back towards that this year, with the continuation of the rally that we see. because we all know sooner or later we're going to get a pull-back, but the rally continues and intel outperforms during that rally. >> here's the catalyst. the ceo, he's retiring, they're looking for new management. you could see a new look intel come late spring and that could be a catalyst if you see the stock in the teens. >> ron johnson? >> all right, of course, we want to hear who you thought won the street fight. so, tweet us zblvrj@cnbcfastmon

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what a difference a few years make. the last time the dow hit a record high, gold was trading at $748 and ounce. today, gold is trading at $1,575. let's take a deeper dive into what gold is saying right now. we're joined by mike harris, president of campbell and company. mike, great to see you. >> good to see you, as well. let's check in on the gold charts. more pain ahead? >> interestingly enough, over the last five months, the technical models have been following a down trend. gold has fallen by 12%. what's interesting, though, in the last 30 days, several major technical events that have created more selling in the marketplace. back on february 11th, we saw the market cross but the 200-day moving average and it fell like a stone all the way down to 1550. then, on february 22nd, we had the death cross tech in, where the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average. i think what's interesting, if you look back over the last two years, we've been in a pretty pronounced trading range between

1525 and 1800. and now, we're getting back down to challenge those 1525 lows and i pex a lot of stops down there. probably see increased selling, which may force more of the weak longs to get out of the market. >> okay, so, bottom line here is the next area of support that you're looking at is 1525 -- >> 1525 is definitely a major level and i think below that, 1500. but certainly, that will be increased selling as we move down there. as we look from a macro perspective, you know, six months ago, we were focused on whether or not we were going to get qe four, five or six. now it's pricing in when with eu stop? if you look at dlollar as a proxy, it's no surprise that gold is being liquidated now. >> let's get to oil now. what do you see? >> our models are focused on brent. we have a small short in wti. if you look at the relationship,

that spread continues to move out with, over the last five days. we've seen about $2 being added to the spread between brent and wti. it's all based on supply. we've had some platform leaks in the north sea, which have created a little bit of tightness in the brent supply market. on the flip side, we continue have a glut in curbing. i believe the data will continue to show that supply is building on this side of the atlantic. >> all right, mike, great to speak with you. thank you for your time. >> you, as well. >> all right. let's get to gold here. grasso -- there's been a lot of chatter lately that there are some big holders of gold under pressure -- >> that's the key. i think the pressure is, people that are coming out. people that have the massive long positions in gold. we know who they are. that's the pressure i see in gold. but the other flip side of it is, what happens when ben bernanke does stop? do you think that now people pull out of eck by tips, go into gold and it's the reverse of what mike actually just said. that's what i see.

really quick on refiners, if that spread between wti and brent continues to push out, who does that benefit? all of the refiner space. >> clearly as mike pointed out, it's been painful to be in the gold trade. global race to zero across all currencies, gold is the ultimate winner. so, i don't know how it shakes out. i don't think much lower it can go. but we're going to come back this time next year and have a two handle on gold. two meaning 2,000. >> let's play a little jeopardy. here's the answer. the bester if forming stock in the s&p 500 since the bull market began. anybody? >> we all know it, though. >> you know what, you're such a jerk. you can't play the game right. >> why are you calling me a jerk? who calls me a jerk? >> i would say home depot. >> what is wyndam world wide. >> who's the jerk? you knew the answer -- >> i have to play it. >> all right, sorry. winning. >> scott nations, how are the

options traders playing this one? >> well, they're still bullish on the company, though it obviously had a tremendous run. call volume today was three times the daily average. much of that, in fact, most of that, call volume was being driven by buyers today. one big trade that we saw was a buy of 500 of the may $60 calls. this call buyer paid $2.90 for these. break even is $62.90. they expect it to be above that level at the may expiration. if you look at the chart, that $62.90 level is really interesting. it's no man's land. easy to see why they would want to buy calls and define their risk. that's the way they want to be bullish. >> thank you, scott nations. dr. j, quickly, wind hall or wynn? >> after this run and because of the exposure to macau, wynn. coming up, the trade that is

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welcome back to cnbc's "fast money." we have an update on the death of hugo chavez. the leader of venezuela. happened this afternoon. 20 minutes ago, the leader of the venezuelan army pledged support of the vice president. that is a sign that there will not be a coup in venezuela. venezuela is a large producer of oil. 2.8 million barrels a day. production had declined because chavez had not invested as much in the country's major oil company, which was owned by the state. so, we'll see if production and investment improves now that he is gone. melissa? back to you. >> thank you, michelle. you tweet it, we trade it. let's get to some of our tweets to our crew today on this

record-setting day. guy, we kick it off with you. >> go. >> having ridden the rally -- is that grammatically correct? today, i sold it and actually am now 10% shore. where should my stop be on the spy? >> i think this is the deal. well done. great job. 10% short. everybody's going to be looking at 1565 as their stop. so, you have to sort of play outside that realm. i'm sort of more in the 1580 to 1585 camp. then you pull the rip cord. well done so far and let's see if it plays out. >> this tweet is perfect for danny downer here. is it better to buy an etf like sds or short the spy? >> great question. you know, i mention these double inverse things. they are kind of dangerous here. i use them sparingly to try to play intraday reversals that get leverage here. when i make a longer term bearish bet, i use the spy and inuse spreads in -- put spreads. so, to me, so, you cannot set it and forget it in the sds.

it can melt you. >> this is for stephen p. grasso. jpmorgan seems to be getting winded. time to take some off? >> the chart looks spectacular. if you really want to be nervous about this market fading because you want to look at the financials. if they break, the market breaks. use $47.60, the late february low, as your stop out in case it doesn't work. but still long in the name. >> and this one is for doc-y. aig, stay long or time to trim? >> well, we talked about this one, maybe a week or ten days ago, mel. i think it's going to have a consolidation period here. i think it's good you're going to have american airlines emerging from bankruptcy, merging in with lcc, u.s.air. why? because these guiles have partnerships where they lease airplanes and so forth and they insure many of those transactions. so, i like iaig. i think it goes sidewails for a bit. >> i don't tweet, but i have -- >> love when you have questions. >> so, we closed all-time record, new high, blah blah

blah, tomorrow, what are you telling the markets, the first thing you see when you walk on the floor tomorrow morning? what are you looking at? >> first of all, you consider it melting up still from here because it's huge and it's gappy here, all the way back up to 1576, which is the all-time high in the cash. so, you want to see us creep to there first. >> i see. >> if they sell them right out and we trade lower, ten handles or so, then you see that the market is a little bit soft here. >> got it. got your first move tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned. revolutionizing an industry can be a tough act to follow,

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