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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  March 6, 2013 3:00pm-4:00pm EST

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♪ after all, what's the point of talking if you don't have something important to say? ♪ the dow pushing further into record territory, and we are near session highs, currently up by 64 points. well, we know where the wealthy are, from the hamptons to hong kong and the points in between, but where are they spending the most money to buy their fabulous homes? cnbc's robert frank is here with that, and i'm sure you've been invited to a few of them as well. >> the super rich have driven up prices around the world, nowhere so much more so than monaco. real estate in monaco, the playground in the mediterranean, sells for an average $6,000 per square foot, the highest in the world according-to-knight frank, the london realtors. you get 2,300 square foot
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apartment in monaco will run you around $28 million or $12,000 per square foot. plus, you get a great view for looking down on your yacht in the harbor. ranking second was hong kong and then london at around $4,000 per square foot. here's a sweet little old man shown in london's may already favor neighborhood, the price around $26 million, but price isn't the only measure of popularity. the super rich were asked to rank the world cities by economic power and influence, and other measures, new york took the top spot followed by london. new york is relatively cheap at only $2,000 per square foot. you can see the full rankings and numbers on cnbc.com inside wealth. >> no surprises there, right? no real surprises. expecting sort of a wild card. >> the surprise though is $6,000 per square foot. that's huge. >> no tax right? >> no tax, right. >> thank you so much for joining us, robert. and thank you for watching, everybody. "closing bell" is coming up
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next. see you same time tomorrow for "street signs." hi, everybody. the rally rolls on. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange. this big move in stocks continues. >> go on higher. i'm bill griffith. on today's program another all-time high seems to be in the cards for the dow, a day after shattering a previous record going back to october of '07. stocks are maintaining their gains today. we have team coverage, and we'll hear from money managers who will give us the names of stocks that they say are still priced right for investors to make money in. >> looking for value in this market. then the other side of the coinch we'll look at what's out there that could derail this historic run, danger signs both here and in the rest of the world, but we want to find out what you need to know to really
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protect your money. >> two big exclusive interviews ahead, conoco phillips ceo ryan lanse and the chief business officer for google nikesh arora. last time he was here he was aghast i had a blackberry and that it was an old blackberry. very involved in the new google glasses we keep hearing about. we'll learn a lot more about those glasses coming up today on "closing bell." >> let's check where we stand in the record run. the dow jones industrial average right now at the highs of the session once again with a gain on the day of 60 point at 14,311. nasdaq also doing well today. take a look. up about 1.75 points. now, it's a positive there that we're looking at a gain because we had been negative for much of the session on the nasdaq. s&p 500, similar chart pattern. you can see the nasdaq near the highs of the day but certainly a victory given the fact that we have reversed earlier losses. >> let's kick this day around in our closing bell exchange, with
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zach karabell and michael pento and burt white from lpl financial and matt cheslock from virtue financial. good to see you all. who am i going to start with here, zach karabell, playing the trend here, aren't you? going to stay with it as long as it goes? >> well, i think this has been the trend for the of the past -- since march of 2009, certainly been the trend for the past couple of years, and i think it's the trend for good reason in that a world of low yields and modest economic growth companies are making double-digit profits, generating dividend cash for shareholders or generating actual growth in a growth-challenged world, and it's not like we're so off to the races. i don't know how many days we'll have to keep going with new all-time highs, where we say new all-time highs, but this could become a more regular story. >> what are your thoughts, michael pento? are there danger signs out
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there? >> one comes across my mind. from 2003 to 2004 the fed funds rate was 1%, a progenitor of the real estate market, the big bubble that crashed the entire global economy, and now we will have had zero percent feds fund rate for at least seven which the time mr. bernanke or janet yellin starts to slowly raise interest rates. that is the progenitor of not only an equity bubble but probably another real estate bubble and, of course, the biggest bubble of all the bond market, and when that breaks, it will be light years ahead of. >> and that's why you own a lot of gold in. >> 50% of the portfolio in gold, and i'll tell you, i was on this program on larry kudlow's show in january of 2009 and went long then. i was three months early. i went 85% long in the portfolio in january of this year as well so i'm not a perma bear.
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watch out. the crash is going to be exponentially worse than the real estate crisis. >> and burt white, you've been skeptical of this rally for a while now, haven't you? >> yeah. i'm probably stuck between these two guys. i actually think that there's a lot of uncertainty out there, and clearly it takes a lot of fuel and air to continue a big market move like this. so we think we're a lot closer to the top of a very tight trading range so we think we're a lot closer to the top here and think that it's going to take a lot for bulls to take this market much higher. >> i want to go back to something michael pento just said. mikeal, you said this collapse is going to be a lot worse than the housing collapse. >> much worse, much worse. >> well, what are you saying? are you telling me we're going to get a serious meltdown in stocks? >> i believe that we're going to have the most salient and dramatic swings between inflation and deflation that we've ever before seen in the history of economics. >> i've got to push back. let me throw a couple of things at you. number one, what are the
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alternatives? if you're not going to put your money in stocks. >> i am. >> number two, cash on balance sheets, probably the best corporate story in terms of earnings, in terms of balance sheets that we've seen in decades. i mean -- and then, of course, number three, the big elephant in the room is the federal reserve. >> as i said. >> what about those three issues? >> we are 85 long stocks, but one should be cognizant of the fact that once the fed funds rate gets to around 3.5%, 4%, that this all -- this house of cards is going to come crumbling down and that's what you have to be aware of. >> when are we getting to 3.5%? >> probably not until 2017 and that's why our portfolio is long but one shouldn't mistake an artificial economy to one that is based on low taxes, low interest rates and low inflation. >> i know you're long, but you're sitting right close to the exit just in case. >> matt chez loss, maria and i were talking before we went on
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the air. this has been a rather underwhelming rally to an all-time high here. what do you make of that sentiment on the trading floor and else where as we continue to see nominal highs today? >> not seeing much sentiment at all today. up 60 point, no one really scares and that's scary to say. yesterday as you said the news trucks were all outside and everybody cared about a psychological high. we really need another catalyst to take us higher and we keep saying that, but we keep blowing through all the headwinds and keep yooet creacreating record . you'll grind higher if you're a bear like i am and event lit turn may come quicker than we think. may not be 2017. i'll play for one quicker than that. >> maria, like you say though, once you force the sell, say the market is up 20% by may and then it goes down for a 10% correction, well, what have you gained? when you sell your stocks, where are you going to go, in the bond market? where else are you going to go? this is bernanke's --
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>> you're talking on both sides of the trade. >> what i'm saying -- >> yes, you are. >> i'm saying how so. we're long stocks. >> first you said there's going to be a collapse in stocks that's worse than housing. >> much worse. >> that's a big statement. >> much worse, and the economy. >> and where else are you going to go to repeat what i said? >> what i'm waiting for is the clues from the bond market. when the bond market tells us it's time to exit, and i said that rate on the fed funds rate would be 3.5%, 4%, then you get out. not getting out now. the feds fund rate went to 6% in 2007 and that's what caused the collapse of the housing market. >> right. >> but you don't want to get ahead of that and lose out on opportunity. >> go ahead, zach. the other side, to be totally true, markets are going to keep going up until they go down and nonnone of us know when that's going to happen. in terms of rate, japan has gone 20 years without those rates going up so the fed funds rate may get back to 3.5% at some point. it could also stay at 1%. >> zachary karabell, you want to compare the monetary base in
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japan to that of the federal reserve? you can't do it. the bank of japan has not done anything near what the federal reserve has done. they have taken an $800 billion monetary base and made it into over 4 trillion by the end of this year. you can't compare the two, and japan has a declining population and they had deflation. if mr. abe s successful in creating inflation, the bank of japan will crater just like mr. bernanke will crater our bond market. >> guys, got to go. >> good stuff. >> everybody hold your positions. we'll see you later. >> thanks, gentlemen. see you soon. dell shares higher today after david faber report that had carl icahn is taking a bigger stake in the pc-maker. getting interesting. 2.25% higher. let get to david with the latest on this developing story. >> that's right. it is getting interesting and probably will continue to get even more interesting for dell as it approaches a shareholder vote yet to be set on that
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$13.65 a share leveraged buyout that's being led by michael deshlgs dell, along with the private equity firm silver lay. carl icahn will come out publicly of that deal. he may have amassed as much as $100 million share position. that would equate to roughly 6%, make him one of the largest shareholders here. icahn, i did call him and spoke to him. he would not comment one way or the other on day or any rational he might have for taking that position, but, again, trading sources indicating it could be quite a large one. now, i can tell you as well that sources familiar with the situation indicate or tell me that icahn has actually spoken to advisers to dell's special committee. if you'll recall, that special committee has evercore, the investment bank working for it, as about t pursues a go shop period, looking for any and all that might be interested in topping that 1365 bid out there. they may have had a couple of
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companies sign confidentiality agreements but nothing dramatic has occurred at that point. they told icahn, hey, you want to get involved. sign a goo goh shop. he said i'd like to see you pursue a leveraged recap and would like you to return $9 a share in a dividend to shareholders by levering up the balance sheet. now the special committee has considered that kind of proposal in the past but said we don't want to take that risk for the broad base of shareholders in dell, lever up the company to that extent while we're in the midst of a great transition. worry about customers abandoning us, and so the debate will rage here, maria. a lot of people buying the stock. certainly won't vote in favor and neither does it appear will mr. icahn or southeastern asset management which is leading the opposition at this point. back to you. >> david, thanks so much. >> what's more unloved this, stock rally or the dell buyout? nobody loves either at this point, it seems right now, but which are heading towards the close with a decent little rally. the dow jones industrial average
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at the high today was up 68 points. we're up 56 right now. remember, any positive close is another new all-time high. >> talk energy. find out why the ceo of energy giant conoco phillips says the white house holds the key to a new jobs boom. ceo ryan lance exclusively after the break. >> and we'll take you live to disney's shareholder meeting where ceo bob iger is under fire. >> and we'll talk to the brightest minds on wall street who tell us which stocks to trade to make you record setting money in this historic run. back in a moment. i know what you're thinking...
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well, stocks may continue to go higher, but oil prices keep declining. bertha coombs is at the nymex
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right now with details on that. >> reporter: government reporting today that inventories rose more than 3.8 million barrels for crude as we continue to see stockpiles rising. they are at a high not seen since last june. part of the problem, we have lower imports. we also had lower refining, and we continue to have big production. interestingly rex tillerson today updating analysts here in new york and said he expects that exxon's overall production n 2013 will be down about 1% before resuming growth next year and a big part of that pullback is going to come in natural gas. as we know, maria, natural gas in storage here is at near all-time highs. >> all right. bertha, thank you so much. conoco phillips meanwhile banking on share as investors are banking on a growing company and growing dividend. with the stock trading relatively flat over the last 12 months i sat down with conoco phillips ceo ryan lance to get his plans for the company. can you characterize business for us right now?
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>> well, it's a great business opportunity in the u.s. right now. the unconventionals are quite exciting, and for our company that's a huge piece of growth potential. what we're doing on the canadian oil sands and growing in malaysia and doing in europe and all over the world is adding to the growth that we talked about in our analyst meeting so exciting times for our industry, exciting times for our company. >> now, i want to get into the canadian oil sands and really where you see growth for sure but let me ask you about the dividend because at the analyst meeting and repeatedly you continue to focus on the dividend saying it's really a priority. you already have one of the highest dividends in the industry, almost 5%. quite impressive, but there are some concerns out there because the companies that you compare yourself pay dividends out of cash flow, and the analyst community is wondering if you are going to face a funding gap
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over the near term, why dedicate so much money to the dividend, even to the extent that you may have to sell assets to raise the cash. is that appropriate? >> well, we think the dividend is an important and compelling part of our story. it unds pins our performance. it creates capital discipline in the company and as i tell the analyst and our shareholders, it is our number one priority. as we think about what to do with our cash flows. we do have a short-term deficit relative to the capital program we've announced and the dividend that we have but we're satisfied that some of the non-core assets that we're selling in the company. that will bridge the gap on cash flow over the next couple of years, but if you look at our base plans and ability to grow 3% to 5%, ability to increase the margins 3% to 5% in this business which is coming with the investments that we're making globally around the world, are going to grow our cash flows to a place that fully fund or capital program and our dividend, but our dividend does
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remain the top priority for the company. >> so it sounds like you're going to do whatever it takes to keep maintaining that dividend or even raising that dividend. >> well, we think investors ought to expect as we think about the dividend. annual or modest decreases. it's a mature business, and it does represent our highest priority of our use of cash. >> can you categorically say that you're going to at least get that growth 3% to 5%, and is there any reason to believe it can be higher that that? >> see a clear line of sight where today after we dispose of some of our non-core assets. that represents a low point 2013, and then beyond that what we've told the investors is we have a very clear line of tight 1.9 million barrels a day by 2017. that 400,000 barrels a day of growth represents 3% to 5%.
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off the base when we came out is a new company in 2012 so certainly if you start in 2013 off our lower point, that's pretty impressive growth for a company our size. >> i want to ask you about shale which i continue to hear a lot about, and i also want to ask you about the keystone pipeline. first off, late last friday the state department released a positive environmental review of the keystone xl pipeline. president obama, of course, has been delaying this pipeline, but we haven't heard much about this very positive report on the environment, and we know the environmentalists are against the keystone pipeline. how do you think this plays out? >> well, i think it's important for our country. it's important to be able to trade with our neighbors to the north and canada. today we import 800,000 barrels a day into the gulf coast of the united states, into the refineries that we have on the gulf coast, so they are tooled up for the kind of grew that we produce up in canada, the heavier crowds that can come from canada so it makes an
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imminent amount of sense so i'm encouraged by the state department report on the environmental impact because the economic impact is significant as well. if we can get some of that crude to the gulf coast we can alleviate some of the differentials that are there. that's more taxes and that's more economic growth and more incentives and more jobs, exactly what we need in this country right now to help us grow out of issues that we're having economically. >> in fact, last week i spoke with minister doer from canada, gary doer, and i would like to get your reaction to something he said. listen to this. >> the unintended consequences of environmentalists opposing this pipeline is to have higher greenhouse gases with trucks and trains rather than pipelines so this is the challenge. if we make the decision on facts and common sense, it will go ahead. if we make it on noise, it becomes a little more unpredictable. >> do you think people have a misconception of what's going on? >> well, i don't think it's been characterized properly, and i
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think what the minister is saying is exactly right. we've demonstrated pipelines are the safest way to move crude long distances. it's the most efficient way. it's the least environmental impact, the least environmental footprint. >> let's talk about shale for a moment, arguably a game changer for the u.s. economy. you've got operations in certain shale fields. what's the opportunity here? >> well, it's tremendous. it's a renaissance for our country. certainly for our industry and for our company as well at conoco phillips. i think we pivoted as anybody to recognize the opportunity and the value that these unconventionals can hold so today we've got a century's worst of gas reserves. it's created an environment with low natural gas prices where manufacturers are now talking about rebuilding those plant sights on the gulf coast and in the united states, you know, sites in manufacturing that we haven't talked about in 30 years this this country and that's
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what this opportunity that shale gas is called. >> because america is rich in shale, right? >> well, it certainly is. when you think about all the different opportunities in ohio and pennsylvania and what we're doing in colorado, so it is changing the landscape around where these opportunities reside. it's economic development for the states, for the local communities. it's driving tremendous changes. go to north dakota and see what's happening up there in this state. what we're doeg doing here in texas and what's happening in colorado and in colorado. it is changing the landscape and changing it for the better helping the economy goes. these are great jobs with good benefits in this industry. >> finally, sir, when would be a reasonable time frame to expect margin expansion? >> well, we'll start seeing that. we'll start seeing that this year as new projects come online. we've got startups coming in malaysia and europe and
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continued rampup of our unconventional positions, the eagleford and the permian base and the bakken and we'll see those margins continue as we expand that growth. it doesn't have to wait. it starts 2013. >> my thanks to ryan lance. we've got 35 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day. we've got a market up 50% on the dow jones industrial average. new record territory against again. 14,303. >> all we need is a positive close at any point on the dow. google is testing a same-day delivery service with retailers. which stock, amazon or google can deliver bigger profits to your portfolio ahead? >> google is making moves into products like the chromebook laptop and the glasses. the lastin on those products and a lot more from google. stay with us. acceler-rental.
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an historic day on wall street. the dow jones industrial average closing at an all-time record high. the dow ballooning past its previous record high hit before the financial crisis back in october of 2007. >> the dow has never been higher at any moment than right now. >> than it is right now. >> a lot of hedge fund momentum behind this rally. >> when the stock market gods push some chips out, they also pull them back. >> no shortage of opinions where we go from here. you okay? >> i'm okay. >> oh, good. amazon shares down after a report that google is going to test same-day shipping service with retailers. a move obviously into amazon's territory which has been gearing for the same-day service as well with more distribution centers in densely populated areas, so which company shares will deliver more profits to your portfolio? let's talk about that in talking numbers. on the technical side richard ross with our back grayson and
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fundamental side is john stevenson with first asset management. gentlemen, welcome. ry, very simple, google or amazon? >> it is very simple. i don't like either stock at these levels. if i did own them, i would be a seller, but i think it's google uniquely vulnerable. when we look at a comparison between google and the s&p 500, see the two trading in lock step since the october high of last year and that novello. i think that sets us up for a bearish blueprint for the broader market. now let's look at google on an individual basis. you bring it up and let's keep it simple like you said. the last time the stom stock was 23% above its 200-day moving average, the stock was 16% lower two months later. today we're 23% above the 200 day moving average, clearly bearish. let's bring up that chart of amazon. what i like about this stock on a relatively basis, at least you've had a 10% correction. you've built a double bottom base of support and broken out above the key resistance at 270.
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corrective activity there on a relative basis. i like amazon more. >> john, do you like anybody fundamentally? >> oh, well, absolutely, a no-brain no-brainer. google by far is the superior company. amazon makes no money. yes, the chart goes higher but never makes any money. google trades at 15 times versus amazon 40 times. it's a better positioned company and in terms of mobile where the world is going. the operating platform, fantastic and what it's doing in youtube. the top 100 advertisers spent 50% more between 11:00 and 12:00, 40 billion in cash for a share buyback or an increased dividend, so this is just a company so much better positioned, and it's in the fastest growing segment of advertising revenue, and it's the dominant monopoly franchise, owning 70% of the paid-for-click advertising. >> bill has been setting all-time highs. >> google is a superior company
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but not the superior stock chart. we've two quarters removed from an, miss that sent the stock down to almost 8%. a great company but think not immune for missteps or potential for missteps across technology. one thing we know about technology, almost impossible to predict the future so with a stock at an all-time high, 23% above a key moving average, you want to be a seller into this euphoria. >> got to go, john. wish hi more time. it's an important discussion on two huge companies in the technology sector. thanks so much for joining us. >> final stretch of trading today. a market that's on fire. once again, this market keeps going higher, record territory, dow up 14 pints at 14,302. well, the markets may be hitting new highs, but there 'r serious threats, threats, i say,
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to the rally lurking into the sh shadows. we'll break that down. >> and disney ceo bob iger under fire but why? the stock is on fire. we'll get to the bottom of that when "closing bell" continues. stay with us. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 there's a few things that i really love-- tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 playing this and trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so i'm always looking to take 'em up a notch or two tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and schwab really helps me step up my trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 now i can use their most powerful platform, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 streetsmart edge, on the web. tdd#: 1-800-345-255 so i get their most advanced tools on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i've also got a dedicated team of schwab trading specialists. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all this with no trade minimums. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after all, i'm in this to win, right? tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open a schwab account and you can earn up to $600 cash tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and 150 commission-free online trades. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-888-284-6065. otherworldly things. but there are some things i've never seen before.
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welcome back. >> market is up 40 points right now. >> it is. any positive close there is a new all-time high. in case you're wondering, by the way, the s&p would need to be up 25 points to hit a new all-time high. not even close right now. >> and the nasdaq is not even close. 5,000 and above was the high on the nasdaq. >> that's a lifetime away. >> nonetheless, a pretty good market rally here once again. >> dwou is happening. >> activist shareholders failing in changing their way disney does business. joorts i joortsin joins us with details. >> reporter: all of disney's
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proposals were approved, including iger's compensation and shareholder proposals backed by iss, calsters to make it easier for shareholders to nominate board members were rejected. much of the meeting was spent celebrating the company, including the access of lucas film. the stock has had a total share return 138% compared to 25% for the s&p 400 over the same powered. this costs as a cost to iger and disney's last fiscal year. 58% of shareholders approved the plan drawing more opposition than any other issue, burks maria, in the case of disney it seems like shareholders think if it ain't broke, why fix it. back over to you. >> julia, thank you so much. did disney shareholders do what's best for the company long term? >> corporate governance expert eleanor blocksom from the value alliance doesn't think so and
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wants iger to split the rolls, chairman and ceo but david miller from harris & company says if it's not broke, don't fix it, so she agrees it has to be held kogt. >> you can't be mad at the line. >> i think it really relates to governance. when you're talking about splitting the chair and the shoer role what you're looking at is what w.h.o. should run the board? and what should run the board is not the ceo. >> but what we're trying to get at is what's the problem? shareholders have been benefitting from a story that continues getting better and better. bob iger's management of this company, and obviously as you say management of the board being chairman, has been effective. so why split the roles when so far it's actually working. >> the reason you split the roles is because this is the
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kind of thing that happens. you let it run along, and then you run into a situation hike they did earlier in the company with michael eisner where you have to step in and split the roles, and quite frankly it's fine to have the roles split. michael eisner would happy to have those roles split. went on tv to say so after it had been done. it proadvice insurance. maybe bob iger is doing a good job but the board is there to make sure that happens. >> bill, thanks for having me on and let me qualify the name of my company is b. riley karas. we bought them back in 2012 so i wanted you to have the employer correct. we completely disagree with what is being said. fur look at the performance of the stock, and that's really all it comes down to here, since march of 2005 when bob iger took over the ceo slow from michael eisner, the stock is up i
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believe 112%. the s&p has returned roughly 28%, correct me if i'm wrong in that. a time. keep in mind in chur when the chairmanship was stripped from eisner. it was a very i didn't company. there was no coluce quill being. the situation down at califor a california, they were underperforming and there was a problem in on the other hand ore where there was a brain drain going on at the company where mr. eisner at the time was just lose control of the sglord go ahead, eleanor. >> i think that this is a misunderstand understanding of the role of the board of directors. that's to overseat ceo. that cannot happen when the ceo -- it can happen, but it's very difficult for a board to remove a ceo once things start to go south if that position
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isn't split. take a look at citigroup. >> do you think bob iger suffers from having followed michael eisner where there -- there were governance issues and they did need to split that up. is that why we're having the discussion about disney today? >> no, no, i don't think so. 40% approximately of s&p 500 companies already have a split, and more need to do so and recognize that governance role. if jpmorgan, there had been a split of the ceo and chairman i think that maybe some of the issues that happened with the london whale would have been caught much sooner by that board. >> can you real say that though? is the chairman really going to be in the weeds that much at jpmorgan to know what they are doing in terms of a trading desk in london? >> actually in my work with boards, it makes a big difference. >> bill? >> there's a lot of role confusion when you have the show in the chairman position, and it's much better when you have that split. >> david, last thought to you.
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>> yeah, sure. i mean, first of all this, whole thing has been already defeated. the shareholder meeting in phoenix is going on right now but this whole proposal has been completely depleted. so i'll ask why is she still sort of, you know, going on this case. >> well, because we asked her to. >> okay. here's what's going on here. in ten seconds, i think calstrs and to a certain extension glass/lewis is trying to create a promotional mojo around this or create some juice around the possibility of taking this campaign to other companies. >> right. >> where calstrs may hold equities. >> large shareholders of disney. >> that's correct. >> that's an issue that's come up before. >> we've got to go at this point. thank you, folks. we'll point out, it was, as julia pointed out, it was defeated at the annual shareholder meeting today. >> yes, it was. >> time stretch here in record
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territory. >> the dow is up 38 points. all you need is a positive close to get an all-time high. >> the nasdaq is still miles away from hitting an all-time high. a look at what could spark that index higher. >> also, four top strategists are coming up to break down how you can still make money in this market. they will be naming names and stock symbols so get your pen and paper out later on the "closing bell." [ male announcer ] it's simple physics... a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms.
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welcome back. the dow is at an all-time high. s&p 20 points away but the nasdaq has a long way to go to reach the record levels we saw 13 years ago this month. seemor, modi looks at when nasdaq may join the party. >> about 1,800 points before hitting its all-time high, a level hit before the dotcom crash 13 years ago, as you just mentioned. even this year the nasdaq has been underperforming, the minimum wage or indices, technology, which makes up a big component of the nasdaq is worst performing s&p sector year to date, and if you think it's earnings that would be incorrect. take a look at this chart. 83% of the tech companies that have reported earnings thus far have beat street expectations which is higher than the average beat rate for the s&p, but to put that into perspective, while earnings growth is higher this
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year for tech, projected growth rates are lower. thus investors aren't willing to buy the stocks at higher multiples whereas back in 2005 earnings were much lower but the expected growth rates were much higher. therefore, investors were more willing to buy these stocks at a premium. bill in. >> seema thank you very much. tell me what you just said. >> no, no. >> talking about 13 years ago. >> i said has it been 13 years because i remember the dotcom days so vividly, being down here. >> exactly. >> and anything with a dotcom associated with it was just -- it doesn't matter. fundamentals we threw out the window, didn't matter about earnings growth, if you had dotcom and hits to your website. >> and i think that's why it hasn't caught up because that shows you how overvalued the nasdaq was when it hit 5000. it had no business being that close because of all the dotcom companies with phantom earnings. >> right. >> that had been bid up to insanely high levels. >> now, today we do have a different scenario going on
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because even the internet companies that we report on, they have got earnings. they have got revenue. >> right. >> looking through a different prism today. >> or so we believe. >> yeah. >> we'll know it later. >> or so we believe. >> we'll know it when we see it. >> final stretch. 15 minutes before the closing bell sounds. >> michelle caruso-cabrera here to tell us about the red flags that could stymie the warning. >> and another explains why we're in a recession right now. he'll explain the call when we return.
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welcome back. the dow may be hitting new highs right now, but there are still serious threats to this rally. michelle caruso-cabrera breaking down the challenges out there. michelle? >> hey there, maria. of course, the biggest risks are the ones we can't identify, but here are some of the ones speaking with investors have been identified. first of all, the biggest critics of the rally say that the quality of the economy right now is pretty low, low quality fundamentals and that the rally itself is fed induced meaning at some point you just stop paying for anemic growth in the united states. how much more can you get? the second threat middle east threats to the oil supply and
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the sideways with the arab spring turning into the arab winter and so much uncertainty about how things are going to work out in egypt in different parts of the world. is it possible that there's some kind of disruption to oil supplies due to some kind of terrorist event related to the arab spring? europe, complacency about europe is something mentioned, and more and more i hear people talking about youth unemployment. the ecb and mario draghi has papered over a lot of issues that go with banking and maybe a systemic meltdown has been prevented and what happens when you continue to have young people in the streets petitioning for changes and is that going to slow down reforms. what does it mean for the ultimate future of the euro? the other part of the world that's troublesome to some people, a great area for growth but at the same time problematic, the situation in china with the chinese transition. the first change in government ten years. happened about the same time as the elections here in the united states, and they have got myriad challenges ahead of them. reforms to the banking sector. what are they going to do about moving hundreds of millions of
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people from the countryside into the city. what's going to happen there? there's a lot of concern that maybe that just doesn't go as smoothly as we've seen it happen, and finally, don't laugh. there are economists who are talking about what could happen with the sequester. they think there's going to be job losses in the second half of the year that could slow down the economy. maria, back to you. >> michelle, thanks so much. >> joining us now to talk more about that. >> raising a regular flag wearing a green dress. >> u.s. stocks are the best investments in the world right now and is not worried. >> and kenny says any sign of negative macro data, and it could be party over, right? i've said, this is the most underwhelmed rally to the all-time highs we've ever seen. >> there were no balloons flowing from the ceiling yesterday and there's a disconnect between what the market is telling us and what the economy and what people actually feel when they walk outside. >> one bad number, you think. >> you're going to run into some bad macro numbers, and it's
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going to take the wind out of the sales and knock us down a little bit. >> do you not think about some of these risks, brian, as a real stumbling block for this market? i mean, is this not a worry for you at all, the quality of the economy, potential issues? >> very much so. we use the acronym of nursery rhyme earlier this week, stock market is either the little engine that could or the goldilocks and the three bears. a goldilocks economy, slow growth and the three bears would be a macro surprise, some sort of a geopolitical surprise or the way that investors are fundamentally investing right now, chasing stocks, chasing beta, very complacent. that could run its course, and we could see a pullback. listen, we've been talking on this network for how many weeks look for the pullback, and we warned people, every time someone looks for a pullback, rarely see one >> you better hope it's not mother hubbard's cupboard because you know what's in that, too. >> that's after everyone jumps
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in, and that's the fear. >> do you hear the comments and the challenges from your clients? >> i do, i do. clients are just as mystified. it just keeps going up. >> isn't that a reason to be bullish, from a contrary basis, when we're all convinced that the market is going higher at the same time, that's when it stops. >> that's when it stops. i think we've gone straight up with no breathing at all. the market has to breathe a little bit. by no means am i saying we're going down 10%, not saying that at all, but it's got to come in a little bit. >> when i started my career a long time ago out in los angeles bill o'neill used to say when it's on the front cover of the paper, start being worried. >> he was able to put it on the front page. >> think about it. every major paper in the country, the nightly news, the headline is dow makes a new high. from a contrarian standpoint you have to be at least a little bit worried about that. >> give us your sense at the end of the day, buying on the imbalance side. >> turn right here. i'm not seeing much of it either way, at least in the names i'm in.
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i don't see any one big move either way. >> what do you want to own here? >> high skault technology, industrials and energy for the long haul. pick your point on the pullback, and from a thematic standpoint we still think dividend growth is a burgeoning income class as people come out of fixed income and into equity. >> stay the course. >> any time you try to time the market it's a fool's game. investor longer term, you're going to be averaging in, but we won't be putting all the chips in at these levels but the markets are up double digits. >> the retail -- >> they are not there. >> that's the wrong thing to be doing is pick the bottom. >> up next, back with the closing countdown. >> and then the winter storm that slammed the midwest is hitting the east coast and all the recent bad weather could create a cabin fever sales surge for retailers. you're watching the "closing
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after all, what's the point of talking if you don't have something important to say? ♪ and his new boss told him two things -- cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. coming up on the three-minute mark here, and we had word that the bias on the close was to the upside, and we
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are starting to see it come up a little bit here. >> remember, any close to the higher is a new all-time high. here's what we did today, up 66 points on the open. looked like we were off to the races and then we weren't. back to neutral for a time but a couple of tops there, starting to come back here a little bit. best and worst performers, bank of america. the financial have done well. technology has lagged again and microsoft down 26% as we head towards the close. warren my, here we sit at all-time highs. what do you make of this? >> a nice lofty level, but, you know, there's not much froth to it, very calm and collected. you get the sense that this has been an orderly move up, and potentially has a little bit more room to go, so, you know, much different than the last time we were here. >> one of our producers telling me that it's the metals that are the leading dow group today and obviously that's al coark, so alcoa is doing well. is it the economically sensitive names that everyone wants at this point? what leadership group do you

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