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[ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of making memories and keeping promises. ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ ♪ oh, oh, all the way ♪ oh, oh welcome back. before we go, let's look at the day on wall street. another winner. another record high for the dow jones industrial average. 14,3 14, 14,329. big news of the night, the federal reserve releasing the stress test. as you can see, the banks traded mixed in the extended hours, but

the fed said the country's largest banks are more prepared to withstand a severe u.s. recession than at any time since the 2008 financial crisis. very positive for the banks. see if they trade up tomorrow. that will do it for us tonight. i'll see you tomorrow. join us then. "fast money" begins right now on cnbc. have a great night, everybody. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. betting on bonds. the shop is buying again. double lines ahead of credit research explains why you should get in. >> deja vu. has everyone gets bullish on google, is the stock headed for an apple-like tumble from grace? and why b.k. is betting on one of the worst performing stock markets of the year. top trade for you, b.k.? >> you know, the biggest mover

today was natural gas. and i think you can still buy it here. ung is the way to play it. you had the storage numbers weaker than expected, meaning that there was more of a drawdown. number two, you had cms energy, their ceo today, talked about how a gas plant, the gas fired exelectrical plant is cheaper than a nuclear plant at this time. you have that kind of background demand. you can go back to warren buffett talking about testing natural gas locomotives. that's the longer term play. in the short-term, ung is the way to play. >> grasso? >> really long winded trade out of the box there. las vegas sands. a couple of negative headlines, but you see the way the stock reacted. went straight up after that. this is the price action you want and a winner. las vegas sands. >> karen? >> you know, i sold staples today. after really thinks about it yesterday, it was a disappointing earnings. too excited about the potential

omx/odp merger. i don't know -- i kind of blew it there, i think. >> they are the biggest online retailer -- >> second only to amazon. >> but still, you don't think they can gain traction from that? >> i think they can -- >> as the others are bothered by the merger. >> it's a little ways down the road and i think they can gain traction. i just wonder if it's a best buy circuit city sort of traction where there's a temporary bump in, you know, with the demise of circuit city, that kind of scenario, not that the demise of omx/odp right away. margin pressure. >> right. >> so, i got too excited about that merger. >> all right. guy? >> hi. >> as beeks just pointed out, nat gas a great move. he's been on top of it. the tail wind for specialty chemicals has been the weak nat gas price. i'm going to get into specialty chems here, which has sold off over the last couple of weeks. i'm betting that that move fizzles out, understanding that the tail winds of the lower nat

gas has worked. i think ashland, off of this pull back, is worst -- >> so, you guys are on opposite -- >> it's almost a street fight right here. >> right here, right now. bring it. >> yeah, he's wrong. >> so, you would not be long specialty chemicals. >> no, i would not at all. because, one, i'm not convinced that the global economy is as strong as all the equity markets are making it out to. number two, i do think natural gas goes higher. there's a big change in the demand for the product. and i think, it's still trading on weather right now. but i think it will -- >> so, if natural gas goes up because there's demand for the product, wouldn't that mean economic growth? >> not necessarily. because it's new the demand coming in. it's not the same demand increasing, it's somebody, a locomotive being used now, somebody building a new electric gas-fired plant -- >> it's replacement. >> those are the fancy book words. switch. >> switch. all right. let's move on. >> do. >> fascinating as this conversation is.

february jobs report out tomorrow. will it be a make or break number for this rally. let's bring in david rosenberg, author of the daily economic report, "breakfast with dave." a must-read. great to speak with you. >> thank you for having me on. >> you think the risk is to the upside tomorrow, meaning the number could come in better than expected? >> well, i'm really not so sure about that. i think, you know, when you take a look at the pricing right now, i think you probably have to clear 200,000 to really get a major market reaction. i think strong number's already priced in. and frankly, i'm not so sure the economic data right now are the principle drivers for the market. i'm one of those that dlooef that this is largely a liquidity/fed led marketplace. i'm not so sure the data really takes center stage one way or the other. >> david, you know, when you just said 200,000 is what we need for the market to continue rallying higher, what do we need for really growth in this marketplace? where's that -- where should

that number be? should it be 250? where should the number be? >> well, you know, i think as far as just tomorrow's numbers are concerned, you know it's going to get revised so many more times in the future, that if you are a real growth bull, what you really want to see is not just a very good employment nut per, but you want to start seeing a lot of the other numbers coming out much stronger. i think what's happening here, people aren't talking about, is that output growth is really lagging behind this pace of job creation. so, this pickup in employment is coming at productivity. remember, we got the revised numbers today, minus 1.9% in the fourth quarter, what happens if we get another negative number? there's a very tight link historically between productivity and profit margins. it's not just about employment. it's always about what the overall economy is doing. >> but in terms of the stock market rally, since we did have the third straight intraday record on the dow in today's session. if you believe it's a

liquidity-driven rally, no matter what the data tells us, you think this is on track? because what the b.o.e., what the e.c.b., the fed is telling us and told us, in fact, today and overnight, is that this continues, the liquidity continues. >> well, look. we have a sort of market on our hands, where, if god forbid, you get a bad piece of data, the market just this rucks it off. if anything is, the mantra is, that's just going to keep the fed spiking the punch bowl that much longer. and then if you get a good piece of data, well, so much the better. that's leading to higher economic growth. we are almost in this, you know, heads, i win, tames i win sort of a marketplace. when you look at the big picture, you know, trying to explain what's happening, you know, so many times on the show today, on cnbc, i'm hearing people talking about, this is an earnings-driven rally. how can that possibly be? last i saw, fourth quarter operating eps is running at $23.32. that's actually down 1.7% from

where we were a year ago. if anything, the 12-month rolling numbers on earnings are now negative. and yet the stock market's up 14% over the past year. earnings are down 1.7%. so, draw your own conclusion. this is actually a rally being led by a higher multiple. that is tied directly to the fed's balance sheet and elongated period of negative real interest rates. so, it doesn't really matter, in my opinion, what the number does tomorrow, outside of, say, something dramatically hiker than 200 or lower than 100. anything in that range is going to be met with a giant yawn. and the reality is this market is predicated mostly on what the global central banks are doing. >> david, we're going to leave it there. good to see you. >> up, too. >> do you agree? >> i'm sort of -- >> that it's just liquiditliqui. >> you know that's been the camp i've been in for a long time. we look at this move, we are going to find out. the productivity argument is

interesting. a lot of people point to the drop in productivity as bullish for jobs, but potentially then bullish for the market. it might be bullish, might be bullish for jobs, but maybe it doesn't go well for the economy as a whole. so, a lot of cross currents out there. i do think we're going to top out. if you ask me what's going to happen, we're going to spike higher early, drift lower and see what happens. >> b.k., in terms of the number, if we get a better number, are we in the mode that better numbers mean the punch bowl is taken away? >> bernanke has communicated that they're not going to do that for a long period of time. it would have to be a massive number, like 300,000 plus. >> grasso? >> it's got to be a prolonged good number. multiple months of better numbers, so that he can take the punch bowl away. >> all right, let's get to pandora. this is a big mover. popping better than expected earnings here. loss and outlook less bad than

originally estimated. that is in quotes, so, i'm not sure if less bad is -- okay. joe kennedy is stepping down. julia boorstin is covering the conference call tonight. we'll hear from her later on. but interesting because the ceo stepping down was announced, the stock held onto its gains, i don't know what that says about -- >> i've been in and out of the game. i thought it was going to get a pop on that internet fairness act that was proposed to congress. that lost some traction there, i believe, and then you started to see competition from apple, so, and then there was barriers to entry, very low. i got out of the name. i missed a little bit of the last pop. >> this pop is a gift, if you are still in it. their royalty payments are going up. it was less bad. they lost less money than they thought. but i think, and there was some pop today because of apple delaying their internet radio. eventually they'll come out with it. >> sort of reminds me of netflix. big short interest, people love the product. content costs going up. don't know if they actually made

money and yet the stock just continues to levitate. big short interest is what -- >> huge. 60% short. this was not a -- it's not a 20% higher quarter, in my opinion. it's due to that 60% short interest. so, to beeks' point, if you are fortunate enough to be in it, you take the money and run here. >> less bad plus high short interest equals 20% move. >> higher stock. >> time now for pops and drops. got a pop here for smithfield foods in the meat space. up 10%. beekers? >> you know bptd .k. loves the space. great earnings today. they talked about how they are getting paid more to produce antibiotic-free pork. and so this is getting their margins higher. i like this name here. still like it, still think you can buy it. >> drop for pelt petsmart. >> it's off that low from late february, still some room here to climb. i wouldn't be a buyer just get. it is making a pattern of lower highs. you don't want to own a stock of that. >> a drop today, down 7% for ross stores.

karen? >> you don't seat ross stores miss. that's what happened today. and great, great company. but i think, seeing that first miss, usually they don't happen one at a time. so, i would wait on this. >> a pop here for the gap. up 4%. guy? >> comps were very good. we talked about gap for awhile. huge move in the stock. going to get besting if we get the 37ish. that was the 52-week high. still a great story. still think outside of -- it's one of the better retailers to be in. >> a pop, move 7% for jds. mike khouw? >> gary smith, the ceo, after announcing better than expected results, thinking there might be an inflection point in buying demand and the whole sector was higher. >> a drop here for dennis rodman. >> huh? >> the former nba star, known, of course, for his crazy hair and even crazier media stunts, has managed to score even more attention a week after his bizarre trip to north korea. it appears rodman's relationship with kim jong-un is going into

overtime. rodman now reportedly says he plans to broker a peace deal with that country. now, with the ball now in his court, the worm says he'll travel back to north korea in the next six months. >> were you a rodman fan growing up? you watch those bums teams? >> i know the answer to that. >> what? >> no. >> if i knew the answer, i wouldn't ask the question. it would seem logical for me to ask a question if i didn't know the answer. >> tattoo of rodman you have on your back. >> all right. coming up next, why 2% yield on the ten-year treasury is a good bet right now. bonnie baha of double line capital makes the case why you should buying. plus, the judge in the jcpenney/macy's case is recommending mediation. we have the latest. and a clash of caterpillar. does the stock have what it takes? our traders will settle the score in tonight's street fight. stay tuned.

let's get to courtney reagan with the very latest on the macy's/jcpenney trial. >> that's right. we have developments. it seems as if the judge ordered all sides to go into mediation, to try to settle this case. it's something that he's wanted all along for them to settle

this case. earlier on, he said, i don't like to move the markets, but if i'm pushed up against the wall, i will kick. he said, it's better that you guys basically get together and figure this out. if i'm forced to make the decision, somebody is probably not going to be happy about it. if the parties cannot come together and come up with a solution, he will hear the case again on april 8th at 10:00 a.m. but until then, he's got a lot of other cases that he has to work through. also interesting, the judge said today in court that terry lundgren and martha stewart spoke after her testimony. that would be the first time that the two have talked since she told mr. lundgren about the jcpenney deal and he hung up on her. it appears someone may have extended an olive branch, though, again, it's not exactly clear who. the judge says he wants the name of the mediator they have selected by tomorrow. melissa? >> all right, courtney, thank you very much. want to get straight to josh lipton now. we got a quick market flash. news on herbalife. josh? >> that's right. herbalife popping here in the

afterhours. here's your news. herbalife holder carl icahn disclosing a 15.6% stake in an amended 13-d filing. that is up from 13.6% as of march first. herbalife up about 1.5% in the afterhours. melissa? back to you. >> 15.5% stake now. karen, what do you think carl's got up his sleeve? >> i think he's got poking ackman with a stick up his sleeve. it's fascinating to me. i think it's sport for him. >> yeah. >> maybe he loves herbalife, but i think it's more sport. >> i think karen's right. and i hope -- i hope carl's got an exit strategy. my sense is that ackman's going to wind up being right in terms of -- maybe not the stock action, but i think his premise is going to wind up being right. so, i hope carl has an exit plan. >> we haven't heard anything. he releases this huge, long, presentation, hundreds of pages and we haven't heard a single thing in terms of ftc. so, why do you think it's going to happen still? >> well, i don't know he thought

that would happen right away. and i would imagine that sort of thing takes time. but i doubt he counted on carl coming in, doing this. >> big time like this, yes. >> this is fascinating to watch. but i think it goes back to just trading in general and guy alluded to it, that you can be right on all the analysis that you do and still lose money. and this might be one of those casesments. >> the pop in the afterhours session is not comfortable for a short. >> yeah. always have a stop. that's the psa. >> jeff gunlock called for the stock to fall below $425 a share and now they are making another big call. this time, on treasuries. we're joined now by bonnie baha, head of the global line credit group. great to see you. >> thank you for the invitation. >> so, you guys like ten years at this point. what's this thesis behind that and what's the yield cutoff? >> you know, the thesis is this. it's not so much that we are

loading up the portfolios with treasuries, but on a relative value basis, with the ten-year at around 2%, in the world we're in, look, it's going to be trading in a range. now, jeffry made the call about how he didn't like treasuries at the bottom in yields of july of this year. at 2%, with the fed and the quantitative easing machine fully turned on, in a diversified portfolio, there is a place for treasury securities. >> so, bonnie -- it's brian kelly. we see japanese government bonds and that's kind of the proxy here, well bell low 1%. are you guys thinking that the yield going below 1%? >> i'm not sure if we would make that bold of a call. but you know, i'm glad you brought up the japanese example. they are the kings of quantitative easing and two decades into this, quantitative easing really hasn't worked very well to spur economic growth. we may be facing the same future here. >> bonnie, it's karen. when you talk about, there's a place for treasuries in a

portfolio, can you give me a sense where would high yield be, corporate bonds be relative to that treasury position. >> probably the best way for me to answer that would be to speak to our core fixed income fund. we have, i think, probably around 20% treasuries right now. we have a very small wading in high yield corporates. counteracting that, we do have a wading in mortgage-backed securities, which are largely noninvestment grade and outperformed high yield corporates in 2012. another area that we look is emerging markets. we have approximately 12.5% of the portfolio in emerging market corporates. >> bonnie, we've got breaking news. we want to check in with kayla. breaking news on citi? kayla? >> first of the requested distribution of the banks that were under the federal reserve stress test. citigroup coming out, saying it did not request a dividend increase, but requested a stock

buy-back plan, $1.2 billion, that's between now and the first quarter of 2014. it was expected, melissa, that banks could not release this information until next week. today was the day that it was basically just going to be mostly about the capital levels, the tier one common capital ratios. you can see citigroup shares are moving afterhours. citigroup posting the highest tier one common cap tam ratio of all of its peer banks, 8.3%. this is a big difference from last year, when, if you recall, citigroup passed this so-called stress test, but it did not have its capital plan approved. that was a big embarrassment for citi last year. their ceo says this week there was no room for error on the stress tests and we have to assume at this point that the federal reserve has accepted this plan for the capital distribution that they've raised no red flags, because otherwise, we wouldn't be seeing it in this release posted to investor relations website today.

>> kayla, thank you for that. stock lower in the afterhours session on this news. if -- do you own citi? >> i don't. >> would you prefer a dividend versus a stock buy-back? >> i think it's two -- for me, personally, i would rather have a stock buy-back. i think that's much better because i'm looking for capital appreciation. i'm certain there's people that want the dividend. it will be interesting to see how the market trades. this is good news for the market in general. interesting to see how the market trades tomorrow. >> i'm a citi shareholder, and i agree, you would rather have that buy-back. when it trades at a pe multiple like this, it is better to buy-back the shares. >> i want to go back to bonnie baha. treasuries in general, has been getting louder in terms of saying that we're in some sort of a bubble, there's some sort of dangerous investment and we just had lee cooperman of omega say it's like stepping in front

of a steam roller to pick up a dollar bill and we had warren buffett calling the dumbest investment you can make. jeff certainly likes to be the lone wolf on things, doesn't he? >> he does. he does. you know, look. the reality is, you could go back to any point in time in the last three years and people would have expected it to be the time to sell treasuries, for it to be the worst call, because rates are going up. because, what we forget is, our generation was raised in an environment where there was only inflation in terms of the horizons. rates would go up, not down. we never lived in a deflags their environment in this generation. and that's what we're going through right now. >> all right, bonnie, we're going to leave it there. appreciate your time. great to see you. bonnie baha of double line capital. >> think she's exactly right. and we've actually said this before. the risrisk, everybody thinks t risk is inflation, i think it's deflation, which is probably five times worse. i think that's what they are setting themselves up for.

so, yeah, at, wherever the ten-year is, i can see it going down to the 160s or -- >> again, i bring up japan. they are below 1% on their ten-year government bond. no reason why we couldn't go there. and the same people that are saying, don't fight the fed, why would you be short treasuries here? coming up next, digging deeper into the bank stress test. and later on, gaga for google. the bulls are out in full force. but there is one side that could be flashing a huge buyer beware. we'll bring you that story straight ahead.

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welcome back.

shares of pandora ripping higher in the afterhours session after the company beat on earnings. julia boorstin has the latest on the conference call. julia? >> yeah, that's right. pandora shares higher as you mentioned, because the company reported better than expected revenue. better than expected profits. the company reported a loss of four cents per share. that's a cent higher than expected. a lot of the other metrics are coming in really strong, as well. of course, the big headline here is that about 15 minutes ago, about 3:45 eastern -- 4:45 eastern, the company announced that joseph kennedy is going to be stepping down. he's been running the company since 2004, entering his tenth year at the company. said it's just time for him to move on and the company is going to start the process of trying to find a new leader. it sounds like, from this report here, from this press release here, that there are no plans to hire internally, they're going to be looking externally. it is interesting they going to have this management change as the company really starts to

gain traction, especially in areas like mobile. on the conference call, there's been a lot of talk about monetizing mobile. the company expects to see an increasing percentage of mobile advertising to increase the bottom line. a lot of talk about how pan door is continuing to build its sales force and trying to integrated ad experience as people spend more and more time on their mobile devices. back over to you. >> thank you, julia, for the update. the banks breezing through the stress test. for more, let's go to the vice chairman of aerial investments. charlie, great to see you. >> thank you for having me. >> you've been a bull on financials for quite some time and right now, the financials are officially in their own bull market, meaning they are up 20% or so. so far. so, charlie, at this point, how do valuations look? i think a lot of people are asking themselves that question. can i remain invested in financials? >> the short answer is yes, but clearly not as ridiculously cheap they were a year ago. morgan stanley was trading at

50% at tangible book. now, it's 90%. so, it's still cheap. but not as wildly cheap as it was a year ago. >> it's karen. let me ask you something. we have a chart, i don't know if we have it up on the screen, about how much a lot of these big money center banks have appreciate. and, to me, it looks quite underwhelming. i would think it would be fine to keep the wading you have. by their nature, the institutions are very, very levered. so, to have 100%, 200% increase in the markets since '09 is really not that big. >> yeah, that's exactly right. but we do have to keep in mind that some of the businesses are not as good as they used to be. the fixed income business is more -- there's more transparency. spreads are tighter than they used to be. a lot of it is going in black boxes, as opposed to people making good, widespread. so, some of these businesses will never earn 20% returns on equity than they did in 2007.

but still very, very good businesses that are still cheap. >> when you look at the stress tests. a lot of the derivatives don't come up on the radar, because they are not factored in in the european stress test, they are. do you think there's going to be a public outcry to really start to capture those derivative exposure and would that benefit somebody like a jpmorgan or just advantage? >> i don't think there's going to be a public outcry. i don't think the public understands these stress tests. the nuances that you and i are just talking about. i do think there is still pressure to make sure that we don't have a repeat of what happened in '08. nobody wants to see the federal government come in to rescue these people ever, ever, ever again. so, what's important is, what kind of leniency do the institutions have to pay dividends? and the good news is, it looks like citi and jpmorgan probably have a little bit more than they thought. >> charlie, outside the revenue stream, seemingly driving up, what are the risks of the banks? higher interest rates, europe imploding? >> you said it.

it's europe imploding is number one. that is still -- it's an interrelated world. if europe goes down, if a big bank in europe goes down. it's going to be felt here in the u.s. secondly, if interest rates go up slowly, it's probably a positive, in fact, for the brokers, it probably would be a big positive. if they go up quickly, we got a problem. >> just about out of time, but if you see the financials getting overvalued and some of your top holdings include morgan stanley, goldman sachs, blk. where do you go? do you rotate into other financials or do you rotate completely out of the sector? >> yeah, that's a great question. there's still some of those names that are still very cheap, like goldman sachs and morgan stanley. but some are starting to get rich. kkr has gone from 13 to 19. you might have to take some money out of the sector. the whole sector is not as cheap as it was a year ago. >> charlie, thank you. would you agree here that you need to start looking at your portfolio and rotating out of some of the ones that have seen good runs?

>> i think so. and in the notes, charlie talked about the old saying, you buy them at one times tangible book, sell at them two. analysts have come on the show and saying they're the new utilities and you sell them at 1%. >> does it concern you that some of these have had big runs and maybe just, you should take some profits and move on? >> well, a little bit. just from a trading perspective. i think you can look at some of 0 the out of the money calls, sell those against your position. but i thought they were up 200% for something that levered isn't necessarily -- isn't necessarily expensive. >> i wonder if all of them ran going into the stress test, because we knew they were all going to basically past. you have that little left. the shorties got out of the way -- >> do you sell that lift? >> exactly. maybe you just watch out and see how the smoke clears and the chips settle. mixed metaphors? >> we got it. the one sign that says all you google bulls out there could be -- this is awful. cruising for a bruising. they put that in there.

yeah. cruising for a bruising. taking a closer look at google's big run with mark mahaney. that's up next. ♪ ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of long weekends and longer retirements. ♪ ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ i don't have to leave my desk and get up and go to the post office anymore. [ male announcer ] with stamps.com you can print real u.s. postage for all your letters and packages. i have exactly the amount of postage i need, the instant i need it. can you print only stamps? no... first class. priority mail. certified. international. and the mail man picks it up. i don't leave the shop anymore. [ male announcer ] get a 4 week trial

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another market leader is

google. we talked about it two days ago on the show. it's just tough to buy up at these lofty levels. if you had a 40 or 50-point pull back, i'd love to get in there. >> borderline suicidal that i'm not in google. i can't believe i missed this trade. >> google is trading at a higher valuation at google, that stock continues to get a bid. >> we just can't stop talking about google's run. as the stock climbs to more than $830 a share, is it showing some signs, the same signs that apple displayed before tumbling from its peak? google is now part of the $1,000 price target club. like apple was previously and citi announcing that google is the stop holding among the country's largest mutual funds. so, is this the beginning of the end for google's run? what are some of the differences and some of the -- i mean, it seems almost eerily similar that every single day, somebody says, $1,000 price target on google. >> if you put out a price target, only compare that, yeah, it seems similar.

but goodle is still 66% of search, also, youtube that is just -- undiscovered gem that no one associates with google at this point and their ad revenue is doubling every quarter, it seems like, i'm exaggerating, but there's still so many things that google has its hand in that has the potential to be block buster. apple didn't have that. >> that's what they said about apple's products. that's what they said about the iphone 5 and apple tv -- >> apple's margins peaked on the 3g, whatever it was. >> we knew that going up to $700 a share, though, grasso. >> have we seen google's margins -- >> yes, their margins have actually -- >> no, they haven't. >> not -- >> she's long. >> i am long. and she's acknowledging the slowdown. >> i hear you. you cannot compare the two. google has other businesses where apple was tote it will dependent on the iphone. >> i think you can compare the trading of the two, though. because when you look at -- citigroup said google is the top holding in mutual funds.

who is left to buy? that's what you have to ask. doesn't matter if the fundamentals are there. who is left to buy? >> and that's what jeff did when he came up with 425. he said who out there doesn't own apple and nobody's hand went up. >> exactly. >> might be the last one. >> it concerns me. i love fundamentals, but it concerns me. >> you could have made a lot of the similar -- >> yes. and you still can. >> valuation looks good -- >> but if i learned anything from apple, i have to buy protection. >> so, does google have more room to run? mark mahaney joins us tonight on the "fast" line. mark, great to speak with you. >> good to speak with you, too. >> your price target on google is far from $1,000. why are you so bearish? kidding. >> all right, here we go. we're based $840 price target based on 16 times earnings. so, we have to ask ourselves, we're right on that, whether the stock deserves to be re-rated higher. i'm open to the argument, and here are the reasons why.

there's still a mobile bear thesis on this stock, which i think is inaccurate. it continues to unwind. the revenue their shea paid to other suppliers, both of those trends improve, you can see multiple improvement. there's an enterprise play at google that is rarely talked about. this company is very significant to international exposure. that hurt them this year, it could hurt them again. they were waved through by the ftc. if the eu does the same thing that will help. and somebody mened gbit. the youtube asset. we had a thesis here that tv ad budgets are going to merge online. if that happens, google is the beneficiary of it. >> and mark, when you look at it, you named the enterprise end of it. so many other business aspects of google that no one even talks about. so, is it unfair to compare it to apple at this point, on

apple's demise? >> well, you know, i want to be careful about it. but you do have differences here. you have a secular growth company, you know, in the form of google and you don't have kind of the product cycle list of a product cycle company. i don't cover apple, i don't want to get out of place there. but i feel the reason why, you know, names like amazon can sustain multi pms at pretty high levels because people believe they are a long-term secular growth winner. >> mark, what's the next growth area or the next growth business for google that can potentially take it to $1,000? >> well, i'll stick with those kind of three big pieces. you know, search, you know, with more mobile devices and tablets and smartphones, we're all doing more searches. that's all extra revenue for google. nobody's taken share from google in search. that's not going to happen. on the last earnings call,

youtube said the top 100 advertisers spent 50% more in '12 than they did in 2011. that's a lot of growth. and a real smart part of the business is the enterprise business. we think they are clearing a billion a year in revenue in enterprise. they have a cloud computing play. nobody looks at it they focus on amazon, aws and other offerings. if they do, there may be more there than the market believes. >> all right, mark, great to speak with you. thank you for your time. mark mahaney or rbc. all right, facebook shares rising 4% today, after the social giant updated the news feed. one options trader made a huge bet today that the stock will tumble 30% by year-end. mike, what did you see? >> yeah, it was interesting, you know, in the midst of small retail call buying, we saw big prints up around the middle of the day in the january of 2014 20-strike puts, paying a dollar for those for 10,000-plus of them. so, that's putting basically more than 1 million bucks in premium to work on best that the

stock could be below $19 by january expiration. >> you can catch more "options action" tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. coming up next, caterpillar causing a ruckus on this desk tonight. we will tackle where the stock's headed next in a street fight between guy and grasso. as we head to break, look at ree moving in the afterhours session. skull candy warning of a first quarter loss. h and r block missing earnings. and pandora issued a strong revenue outlook. be back after this. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor...

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caterpillar has been left behind as the index soared to record highs. they have been one of the worst. so is this a buying opportunity or should you steer clear? we have a street fight. stephen p. grasso, our bull tonight. guy adami is the bear. 90 seconds to make both cases. grasso? kick it off. >> we need 12 seconds apiece for this one. if you look at cat tractor, everyone has been betting against this.

it's managed to hold its 200-day moving average. china has been terrible, but that's been telegraphed. everyone knows that. u.s. construction on the upswing. europe is probably about a year, year and a half behind. i know it's a big if. but i like taking the contrarian bet on this one and hoping to see a pop. maybe mid 90s, after that, maybe 100. you want to exit the trade if you break down below $87. >> 12 seconds is something steve knows very well about. >> i knew there was no shot we didn't get into that. okay. >> couple things. look at their dealer stats they just came out with, i think in about mid-february. they were awful. ourth quarter wasn't t. great. guidance for 13 wasless than stellar. here's a stock that since february of last year is down about 22% on a tape that has been immediate yotic. if the stock doesn't rally over the last year or so, when is it going to? if the tape tops out around here, which i believe it will, caterpillar is not going to go

up. so, yeah, i'm in the bear camp and that's why. >> yeah, i just think the whole thing with china, though, that's basically what the bear camp says. that it's been telegraphed. it's out there. the shorties have piled on it and they are running out of ammo. the next stop for caterpillar is to pop off of maybe less bad news. maybe you see the same type of thing as you saw in pandora. >> question for the bear here. guy? >> yes. that's me. >> when you say that the stock didn't really react to some bad news, isn't that typically a good thing? >> could be. you make a fair point. but remember, the tape was providing a big tail wind, so, maybe the strength of the tape offset what should -- >> ah. >> you like that, right? >> ah, yeah. you didn't think i had an answer for that, did you, harvard girl. but i did. >> all right, let's go to the jury here. booekers? >> oh, i'm on the jury. i didn't get my notice. i'm in guy's camp in this one. >> oh. >> the price action has been terrible. also today, china talked about how they're going to reduce the capacity in their steel sector. follow that down the chain, that means less iron ore, mess

mining, less big tractors. >> you're a big jerk, as guy would say. >> got to really emphasize that. >> karen? >> i have to go with guy on this one. >> oh! >> you know -- >> all right. >> a little growth wouldn't -- slow in growth wouldn't be shocking. >> all right, so, according to our panelists, grasso loses. >> they are all entitled to be wrong. >> but we want to know what the viewers think. tweet us at @cnbcfastmoney and we will share results after the show. coming up on "mad money," stress tests for then banks are around the corner. find out which bank cramer thinks will ace the test. plus, cramer has a silver linings playbook. don't miss hit. coming up next, why b.k. is ready to bet on one of the most beaten down stock markets so far this season. we'll head off the charts to get the trade, next.

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back to "fast money," i'm kayla with a little bit of clarification on a capital plan

that we saw disclosed by citigroup earlier this evening. that was a plan to keep the dividend at 1 cent but raise the buy-back to $1.2 billion by the first qer o next year. i was able to speak with a source who said the company asked the fed if they were okay to disclose that number. the fed had no problem with it. what that implies is that citi has not been asked to revise that capital plan, that that is what is likely to be passed in the next week. melissa? >> all right, kayla, thank you for that update. the brazilian bavespa has fallen 3.5%, making it one of the worst performers this year. but could it be time to bet on brazil? let's go off the charts with the one and only beekers. >> that's me. yeah. we sit here all day long and obsess about whether or not the s&p has topped out, where it's going to top out, numbers, all the different things, but in my sand box, there's plenty of places that you can still buy that are at low prices and brazil's one of them. they've had -- their economy has weakened over the year, but it's

starting to trough. we saw this morning, industrial production increase for the first time in the last couple of months. they have a government that is supportive of growth. they've had a bit of an inflation problem, but just yesterday they raised the diesel prices, which suggests to me that they're not worried about inflation anymore. so, the economy is starting to go. you have -- and, again, it is a major, major stock market. and when i look at the ewz, it bounced off the 200-day moving average. that's the etf for brazil. it is almost up 3%, 4%, so, you need to use a protective stop. but i'd buy it around 58ish, use 54 roughly as your stop and i think this has room to go to about 65. >> implied in this, do you believe that there's a sort of catchup with the rest of the world in terms of the gains that we've seen, because, you know, europe, 4 1/2-year highs -- >> certainly. and emerging markets haven't done that well. but if the money is going to

rotate, it's going to rotate into the areas that could grow again. >> okay. you tweet it, we trade it. let's get to some our your tweets. kick it off with a tweet for guy. >> go! >> phillips 66 got to 66, like you said, now what? >> see, it's -- this is -- what have you done for me lately of all time. couldn't just say, this cat couldn't just say, man -- >> thank you, awesome trade, you rock. >> enjoy the knick game, enjoy -- >> this is twitter, 140 characters, buddy. >> if you've been in it, take profits, brother. we said, 66, it got there. i mean, if it goes up higher, that's all right. high class problem. but if it goes back down, don't be coming and messing with me, brother. because if you are going to do it, you come right leer on set and we'll have a real street fight. >> whoa! >> threats. >> all right, this one is for mike khouw. looking at the volume on the spy and the dia. anyone else see a top here and family is long. mike? >> yeah, you know, i mean, we options traders are often kind of bearish and often kind 0 contrarian, and yes, i sort of

feel like we're reaching a little bit of a top here. someone asked me earlier today, i think another 15 handles. they said 50. but either way, certainly, if you get to 1600 in the s&p, i'd be a seller. >> all right, first move tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned. ♪ [ male announcer ] from the way the bristles move to the way they clean,

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