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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  March 7, 2013 11:00pm-12:00am EST

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thank you orville and wilbur... ...amelia... neil and buzz: for proving there's nowhere we can't go. but, at some point... giant leaps gave way to baby steps... and with all due respect, you're history. if you taught us anything, it's that you can't cling to the past... if you want to create the future. that's why, instead of looking behind... delta is looking beyond. pushing u.s. aviation to new heights. all 80 thousand of us. busy investing billions in the industry's boldest moves. it's biggest advances in technology. bringing our passengers the best, the most spacious fleet in the sky. and earning more awards than any other airline... to show for it. so rather than simply saluting history...
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we're out there making it. a hairline fracture to the mandible and contusions to the metacarpus. what do you see? um, i see a duck. be more specific. i see the aflac duck. i see the aflac duck out of work and not making any money. i see him moving in with his parents and selling bootleg dvds out of the back of a van. dude, that's your life. remember, aflac will give him cash to help cover his rent, car payments and keep everything as normal as possible. i see lunch. [ monitor beeping ] let's move on.
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[ male announcer ] find out what a hospital stay could really cost you at aflac.com. i'm jim cramer and welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game. >> firms are going to go out of business and he's nuts, they're nuts! they know nothing. >> "mad money," you can't afford to miss it. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i just want to help you make money. my job is not just to entertain you but i'm trying to teach and coach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. we call them the generals. they are the stocks that lead us into battle every day, they give
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us the conviction where the averages are trendless, to stand our ground or to charge the enemy without any fear at all. oh, these generals don't live in some chateau far from the front, ala cramer fave paths of glory, they go over the top, braving the bears' machine gun fire, the barbed wire, artillery shelling, strafing even from above. and who are these generals? how do we find them? pretty simple. we got a list of them every day. it's called the new high list and it's for all to see. from the looks of the list, the make-up, we are following an army led by the likes of general pershing, eisenhower, ridgway, grant and marshall. so many people fear and fret and worry every day that they will be picked off the moment they lift their heads from the
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trenches or try to get off the beach. before i tell you why these generals matter so much, let me say the last time we hit all-time highs, the levels from five years ago we took out, we had some of the sorriest generals leading us i've ever seen. we went over the top of the fertilizer stocks, second rate technology names and a host of takeover plays that didn't actually get taken over. i would have stripped those companies down to the buck privates that they really were, court martial them even! this time, our leaders are the most rock solid of our companies and individuals are coming back and this time doing it right, not like 2000. they aren't trying to hit it out of the park with every stock they buy. they aren't speculating. they are following companies that are the essence of why i like this market because the leaders are from so many different sectors, a virtual am i diversified,
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nonconcentrated primer of how a a market should go higher. who are these anointed leaders hitting higher every day? let's start with warren buffett's berkshire hathaway. it's been ages since buffett's companies have provided leadership at all. that's bothered me. this market shunned the greatest investor of our time. why is this general so important? because of the make-up of the companies that buffett owns. berkshire is a pastiche, if not a mosaic of businesses that do well in the environment of american resurgence. he's got tons of housing, lots of insurance, many pipelines. he's got retail, he's got household brands, think heinz. he's got a mammoth railroad. it's almost as if there was this stock called united states of american business, and its president isn't barack obama, it's warren buffett. you get this leader going, you can go in and pretty much buy everything from toll brothers to
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travelers to union pacific and general mills. seeing berkshire hathaway on the new high list is like embracing motherhood, apple pie and dilly bars. after all, warren buffett does own dairy queen, and i follow own dairy queen, and i follow own dairy queen, and i follow own dairy queen, and i follow own dairy queen, and i follow own dairy queen, and i follow own dairy queen, and i follow next leader boeing. yes, boeing. can you believe it? can we count just for a moment? humor me. can we count the ways this shouldn't be anywhere near the new high list? you got the exploding batteries on the dreamliner, the labor strike that's unbelievable, a strong dollar giving airbus a big leg up, you got the sequester. and boeing's a huge defense department supplicant. this stock shouldn't be on the new high list, they should be on the new low list. there it is like a stone wall. up $2 today.
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which divisions will follow boeing into battle? how about the airlines? how about travel and leisure? if airlines need planes, there must be plenty of people using them, like travelers. and how about defense stocks? something tells me things can't be all that bad in defense land. then there's honeywell. i follow general dave cote into battle any day of the week and twice on sundays. a lot of times he's in summit, new jersey on sundays and that's our home town. he's in refining, safety and climate control for offices and homes. you build a lot of buildings, then you use a lot of honeywell
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thermostats and build planes and use their cockpit instrumentation, if you build gas refineries, you use their chemicals. i'm calling it a four star. normally we have to be skeptical about how many battlefields they've covered. not in this market. it's a virtual joint chiefs of staff. johnson & johnson and pfizer all hit new highs. these kinds of names define what we used to call blue chips, before the great recession grinded into dust so many of the stocks that we thought were blue chips. these are brand name companies with the kinds of stocks you would swap your bonds for because they are, alas, more secure than bonds. face it. ask yourself, don't you trust the full faith and credit of johnson & johnson more than the full faith and credit of the united states? given the endless discord in washington and entitlement
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overspending that no one will cut, which do you trust more? let's be clear. if these were the only stocks hitting their highs, i'd say, okay, look out below. j & j, pfizer, they're signaling recession, their earnings hold up. no way you would own berkshire, honeywell and boeing before a recession. and you wouldn't want to own jpmorgan if we were going into recession. here it was on the new high list once given today, breaking out to about 50 bucks. it wasn't that long ago i felt when we talked about jpmorgan we did it only in the condition text of that giant thing hanging from the ceiling of new york's museum of natural history or enemy of captain ahab or captain kirk or mr. spock tried to save in star trek 4. now i think of jpmorgan as an unstoppable force that still
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sells at only nine times earnings. jpmorgan is now our blue chip bank, the survivor, the one the public knows has the blue chip balance sheet. they ought to rename the place fort knox. i've been scared of that place. finally, we sure don't want a market with no technology in the new high list, right? given that it's the biggest segment of the s&p 500, lo and behold, we have an old buddy on that list, one i've made my peace with and own for my charitable trust these days and that's cisco. i'd rather have this company than almost any other tech firm, including texas instruments. cisco is the back bone of the internet and telco industry. when cisco hits a new high, it means businesses all over the world are redoing their infrastructure.
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it's a sign that information technology spending at the enterprise is now flowing big and nothing could be more bullish for all of tech, a much deserving admiral indeed. cisco, it's no longer crisco. the cisco kid is once again a friend of mine. lots of people are skeptical about this market. you ever hear those people? me? this leadership tells me this market can withstand that 5% decline everyone is waiting for and bounce back with a vengeance. you don't need to sell. there will always be battles lost and retreats to lick our wounds on the way to triumph in the war against the bears. the bottom line -- it's like grant, ridgeway, pershing, ike and marshall. these are stock market victors and we should follow them into
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the heat of battle knowing they represent the best of what america has to offer. i'd like to go to elizabeth in florida. >> caller: i'm calling about avav, aeroenvironment. they're hurting due to cutbacks and delays in defense spending. but this company is expanding reach to include drones for fire prevention, law enforcement, news, weather. i always rely on fundamentals but this stock feels like a stealth opportunity. so, cramer, do i buy more, glide or push the ejection button? >> listen, sunshine, the ejection button is perfect. you might as well be sitting next to bond in "goldfinger." i don't want you anywhere near the stock. when they disappoint this bad, it's often the beginning, not the end. do not touch avav. nice bunch of guys. let's go to jude in my home state of new jersey. jude! >> thank you for all the money you helped me make. how positive are you on the colgate split? >> we don't care about the splits.
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there are some investors you care tremendously about a split. when i saw chavez die in venezuela and colgate has huge exposure in venezuela, i fear another devaluation and the stock went up again, maybe colgate is, alas, bulletproof. they are the warriors, the generals that are leading this market and this time they're the most rock solid companies. this isn't some sort of buck privates leading us into battle. i think it will be time to follow them. i think this war is going to be won. "mad money" will be right back. >> coming up, stress reliever? banks are gearing up for another round of stress tests. and the stocks that make the grade could make a serious deposit in your pocket. cramer has the play he thinks could ace the exam. and later, steel showdown. global growth is picking up. that means industrial investment
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could be on the rise, but not all stocks are positioned to profit. find out which one cramer thinks is solid and which he's sending straight to the sell block. plus, silver linings playbook, after falling more than 15% from its high, could the gold standard soon be a thing of the past? tonight cramer's looking for luster with the ceo of silver wheaton, all coming up on "mad money." don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. if you think running a restaurant is hard,
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try running four. fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase.
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i believe 2013 is the year of the regional bank, as the powerful housing recovery causes a massive resurgence in mortgage lending, making the regionals
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one of my top ten themes for the market in 2013. but the dow keeps relentlessly pushing new highs, where it seems to rally day after day, how can you buy a stock and know its valuation isn't super stretched and overextended like so many stocks? you know i like the regional banks but maybe they've run too much? for those of you who fear we moved up too far too fast and i heard it all day today, how about a regional bank that has more room to grow, no question. i'm talking about suntrust, sti. the atlanta based southeastern regional bank that we've been buying for my charitable trust lately. before we make a move, you get a bulletin. we got the real stress test results from the comprehensive capital analysis and review. they use it to determine which banks will be allowed to return
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more capital to shareholders via larger buybacks and increased dividends. this will be the watershed event for this group. this is what i've been waiting for, seemingly forever. last year suntrust was one of just four major banks to fail this very stringent stress test. that's right. that's right. that meant that unlike most other banks, the company has not been allowed to raise its dividend beyond the current meager 0.7%. that's the yield. i expect this year suntrust will pass the stress test and if that happens, we're likely to see the company announce a buyback. that will give the eps a nice boost. you increase the eps number by raising the earnings or by shrinking the number of shares, or both, something suntrust could do dramatically if we find out that it passed the test next
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week. a pass would allow suntrust to put through a major dividend hike. they'd be allowed to raise their payout ratio, the percentage of the earnings they spend on dividends, to as high as 20%, which this year as these levels would give the stock a 2% yield, and that would instantly make suntrust a more attractive investment than a certificate of deposit or ten-year treasury. before you consider that dividends still retain their tax favored status, it would put it on par with a lot of these other banks. it did have a scarlet letter because it didn't pass. given that they did fail last year, getting a go ahead from the federal reserve this time around would be a symbolic gesture. i expect suntrust to pass. this is one of the main reasons we've been buying it so aggressively for the trust. it's given you a delicious pullback of late. even as the stock rallied 38 cents or 1.3% today.
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suntrust is about two points off its high at these levels and ever since the beginning of the year it's been lagging regional bank stocks by 10% and trails the overall bank index by 7%. expectations for suntrust have come down. kpw downgraded february 19th on earnings worries. i think this negativity is creating a terrific buying opportunity in suntrust ahead of what's likely to be a colossal positive strategy. i'm telling you about it now because i want you to have time to do some homework, take advantage of the weakness and use it to buy the stock carefully without a gun to your head. don't invest like this. then there are of course the fundamentals. suntrust has major exposure to housing, especially in the southeastern part of the country. just counting the number of
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branches, it's the market leader in georgia, number three in florida, and tennessee, fourth large nest virginia and washington, d.c. and a top-ten player in north carolina, south carolina and maryland. in other words, there is a major regional bank with serious scale, a dominant presence and a just gigantic deposit base. in the markets where they have the most share, housing prices have been rebounding and they've been rebounding dramatically. according to the all important, all knowing case shiller home price index, house prices are up 10% in atlanta. remember suntrust is number one in georgia. up 7% in tampa, the housing prices, 11% in miami, these are important florida cities where suntrust has a major presence, and housing prices are up 6% in d.c. plus the employment situation is improving dramatically all over the states where suntrust operates. unemployment is down 3.3% in florida, down 1.9% in georgia.
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meanwhile suntrust has been growing its deposit base. balance sheet has been cleaned up to where they have a tangible common equity ratio of 8.13%. i give you the numbers. some guys understand these numbers, others are -- i'm just trying to help you. this is a measure of how much pain a bank can take before it folds. over 8% is pretty darn respectable. management has rolled out new aggressive cost cutting programs that should allow the company to capture more gains as the business comes back courtesy of the housing resurgence. it should bring down expenses dramatically for 2013. core expenses fell 3.8% from the previous quarters, compensation expenses were down 5.4% sequentially. after we get the stress test results on thursday of next week, i think investors are
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going to jump all over suntrust as the company redeems itself by passing with flying colors. announcing a huge buyback and boosting the dividend dramatically. that's why i want you in this regional bank before that happens. sti represents the best buying opportunity in one of my favorite sectors for 2013. after the break i'll try to make you even more money. >> coming up, steel showdown. global growth is picking up. that means industrial investment could be on the rise, but not all stocks are positioned to profit. find out which one cramer thinks is solid and which he's sending straight to the sell block.
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right now we are in the middle of a north american energy renaissance, a huge transformational theme that i've talked about many on "mad money." tonight i want to approach this story from a whole new angle i haven't talked about before. it's not just that we're finding vast quantities of oil and gas and building new pipelines. we're also witnessing a resurgence in energy infrastructure spending. think new power plants that run on natural gas rather than coal, new upgraded refinery capacity to handle the crude being produced in north america's bakken shale.
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more trains that will allow us to export natural gas. when you need to put up these huge infrastructure projects, you turn to a particular kind of company. you turn to the engineering and construction firms. they called them e&cs which build power plants, refineries, wind farms, refining projects. they provide the know how for everything needed to get these huge installations going and service them once they're up and running. it's not just the north american energy renaissance. energy companies are elevated all over the world which means companies are overflowing with orders to start all sorts of big projects all over the globe. so how do we play it? first of all, you need to know this is a sector where a rising tide does not necessarily lift all boats. there are major differences
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between the engineering and construction names and, as usual, you got to stick with the one that has the best management, the best prospects. we like best of breed. earnings season did great job of separating the wheat from the chaff in this sector. consider chicago bridge and iron, cbi. a company that stopped being about bridges and iron over a century ago and isn't even based in chicago, not even based in illinois, not even based in america. they're among the largest engineering and construction companies on earth, focused on building energy related infrastructure and it's headquartered in the hague. should they change their name to the netherlands construction company or maybe just the succinct dutch oven? who could make a joke about chicago bridge and iron other than cramerica? cbi is in terrific shape. we know that this is the case because last week on february
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27th, chicago bridge and iron, they knocked it out of the park. reporting a spectacular quarter with earnings coming at 91 cents on an 8 cent beat on better than expected revenues that rose 22.5% year over year. even though cbi had run up dramatically, the stock continued to surge after the report rallying from $53 to $55.87 where, like many other stocks, it hit a brand new high. not everyone is doing as well as chicago bridge and iron. just two days later, foster wheeler, another energy related engineering and construction company reported abysmal numbers! yeah, they delivered a 19 cent earnings miss off a 46 cent
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basis and revenues declined nearly 35% year over year, coming in far below what the analysts were looking for. while cbi reaffirmed its strong outlook for 2013, foster wheeling blamed the weak state of the global economic recovery for their troubles, funny, the rest of the industry seemed to have a very different view of the world economy. maybe this is one of those cases where it's only raining on foster wheeler's side of the planet and sunny everywhere else? these results were so bad that foster wheeler got crushed, falling from $24 down to $20.22 last friday. that's a 16% decline, people, and even though the market has been on fire this week the stock has only recovered by nickels and dimes, chump change. the earnings do tell the tale. if you want to buy chicago bridge and iron, you have to stay the heck away from foster wheeler. what does make cbi so much better?
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first of all, back in july cbi announced it would acquire shaw group. remember those guys, for $3 billion of cash and stock, a transformational deal that closed less than a month ago and gives cbi tremendous multi-year earnings visibility. the company should have a $28 billion back log, made up 33% power projects, 15% liquified natural gas project, environmental infrastructure, fabrication, manufacturing and power plant services. it's expected to be additive, meaning it's going to make more money to earnings this year. it should generate cost synergies and revenue synergies that could be worth $150 million. as we saw before the deal closed, cbi's business is in excellent shape.
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steel plate structures business up, thanks to asian liquified natural gas. their petrochemical refining division was incredibly strong. cbi racked up $2.9 billion in new orders, rising a record $10.9 billion. this is before the impact of the shaw group acquisition. now post shaw cbi has the $28 billion backlog and more than 45% fixed price contracts, meaning you could make a case this stock is selling way too low below its book of business value. cbi trades at less than 14 times earnings, despite the fact it has a 23% long-term growth rate. that's long. the stock is ridiculously cheap. analyst day, the end of the month, i bet cbi management will
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talk about the shaw deal. i think they will raise numbers. foster wheeler, a smaller, less diversified company, management just can't seem to execute. when it came out, i thought it was like a typo. i couldn't believe it. now what's happened is they picked up a lot of lower margin work, they make a little less money on each deal, something management couldn't really explain on a conference call. the company is reorganizing its engineering and construction business and the cost of that reorganization are going to put the squeeze on foster wheeler's margins all the way through the year. they have the most exposure to europe of any company in the industry and worst of all, management has real credibility issues because they've done a poor job managing expectations in the past. you know how important expectations are for a stock. the bottom line is the engineering construction
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business may be in bull mode right now but that doesn't mean you're relieved of your duties to try to pick the best stocks in the industry. if you buy a loser like foster wheeler, the market will indeed punish you, but with a winner like chicago bridge and iron, i think the rewards will continue to be enormous. wait for a pullback and pull the trigger ahead of that march 28th analyst meeting, a catalyst that i think can drive the stock much higher. karen in my home state of new jersey. karen. >> caller: hi, jim. >> hi, karen. >> caller: i recently enjoyed a mad money burger at the hat. >> did you like the burger? did you like the dollar sign they put on the roll? i got a burger named after me. it's a cheeseburger -- anyway. it's what my mom used to make. go on. >> caller: with the housing market finally turning the corner, what is your opinion on
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the recent ipo tri pointe homes? >> everybody rolled out a big recommend the stock. i liked it, i interviewed them when they came public but here we got -- we're philadelphians, okay? more new jerseyites, you know what i mean. we got toll brothers and toll is still down from when it reported, it's at 35. that's a much better selection. that's what you're going to go with. thanks for ordering the burger. i hope you had the relish. it's what makes the burger work. we're seeing a resurgence in infrastructure spending in north america. i suggest you play it with cbi and avoid foster wheeler. hey, don't move. lightning round is coming up next. carfirmation.
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it is time, it is time for the lightning round! buy, buy, buy, sell, sell, sell. you hear this sound and the lightning round is over. are you ready skeedaddy?
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we'll start with mark in wisconsin. mark! >> caller: jim, i'd like your thoughts on golar, glng. thank you. >> i am doing so much work on these shipping companies and they are incredibly intriguing. i'm going to tell you i'm doing a rundown of all of them and i'm going to save my judgment for when i've done that rundown, so stay tuned. donald in alabama! donald! >> caller: jim, i got a question. why did solar cap drop from 26 on the 20th to $23.80 today and went up 6 cents when they had positive earnings? >> i think that you're looking at it a little too granular. because remember, this stock has been a winner. it's been a stock we like. it's not down that much. the yield is good.
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i'm going to tell you buy, buy, buy. buy it. let's go to steve in connecticut. steve. >> caller: thank you for taking my call. >> of course. >> caller: my stock is solazyme. szym. >> we've taken a hard look at these guys. this doesn't have any earnings and i'm kind of turned off. this is a johnson & johnson market, sir. this is a market where you're making a lot of money with colgate. we do not need to go down the food chain. we do not need to experiment like that. let's go to tom in california. tom. >> caller: hi. say, jim, eix in the utility space. can you help me understand how a stock that lost $5 a share in 2012 and 56 cents a share once you strip out all the one-time earnings still has a positive stock price and is increasing?
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>> it has huge cash flow and growth. i really like it. it's got good cash flow. valerie in my home state of pennsylvania. >> caller: hi, jim. my stock is cubist pharmaceuticals. >> it's a great spec. that is a great spec and i do embrace it and i wish they'd come on air. it's really good. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round! the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. coming up, silver linings playbook. after falling from its highs, could the gold standard soon be a thing of the past? tonight cramer is looking for luster when he checks out a different side with the ceo of silver wheaton.
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i'm always telling you gold is an essential part of a well balanced portfolio and that's true in this environment. gold is your insurance. it tends to go up when everything else is getting hammered by financial chaos. but silver can do the same thing. long term i believe gold and silver are going higher. if you want to capture more than just an increase in prices down the road, if you want to make money off of rising production, you have to be smart about it. mining companies tend to get hit with all kinds of woes that make it so that they can't keep up with the precious metal they produce. perhaps you can own a company that invests wisely in mines. take sl wheaton, a firm that invests in silver mines and increasingly in golds mines. it's known as a metal streaming company, the largest in the world. they give miners an up front payment to get started in
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exchange for a piece of their future production. silver wheaton doesn't need to worry about the labor strikes and permits and cost overruns. they don't even have ongoing capital costs. it's a totally unhedged company. the stock is very much tied to the price of silver, which is why it's down 17% in the last year. it's pretty much mirroring silver's decline. because the company is always investing in more mines, growing the production streams it owns, when silver goes up, the stock tends to roar. silver wheaton has rallied 900%. let's talk to the co-founder and ceo of silver wheaton, randy smallwood. welcome to "mad money." how are you, sir? have a seat. i've traced out what happens when silver goes up. you do better. what is the ratio if silver goes down? >> well, it goes both ways. no doubt with that.
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we're bullish in terms of where silver's going up. it does have an impact on us but we do have a base cost in these contracts that makes sure we profitable. by investing into mines that have high operating margins, they'll always deliver to us. >> you've just made a very big transformational deal with a gold company. is that a sign you've lost faith in silver? you want to be diversified? >> well, it's a gold stream. it's valet. it's known for iron ore. we do like silver a little bit better. there's better fundamentals behind the price of silver on a long-term builder. gold is a good precious metal. in this fiscal environment, we're pretty comfortable in the precious metal space. >> you like silver more than gold but half of the silver production is industrial, not just precious. so you're not worried about the world economy. >> it's the application of
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silver. where silver is used is high tech. that's where -- and that application is growing, that consumption is growing. it's the best conductor of electricity out there. it's better than gold, better than copper. we see high efficiency electronics continuing to demand silver. that area, that sector will continue to grow even in lesser, weaker economic periods. >> you know i am a gold aficionado and i always recommend the gld. i really think it's important everybody have it. i regard it as an alternative currency. is silver an alternative currency, too? >> i call it the affordable precious metal. when you look at countries like china and india and africa is probably not too far behind, we see economic growth in the population as a whole, emerging middle class. when you have the emerging middle class coming out in places like china and india, is the first thing they're going to buy gold at $1,600, $1,700 an
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ounce, or silver at $40 an ounce? it's the affordable precious metal. >> when i look at gold, i like the fact they have such a hard time finding it. it seems like there's a lot more silver in the world than gold. >> what's unique about silver is most silver doesn't come from silver mines. it comes from copper mines and lead zinc mines and gold mines. we buy noncore assets from copper mining companies. it's a noncore asset to them. we get the advantage of that growth. >> we have a terrific guy from one of the streaming gold company and i felt badly because i made it sound like there wasn't as much risk and then gold went down. there is a risk to the actual miners not mining anymore if the precious metal goes down too much, right? >> that's correct. that's one of the reasons why when we select our projects, we protect that.
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we put a lot of effort into our due diligence. we want to invest in the assets in the lowest half of the respective cost curves. >> so silver goes to $20. you think your guys are still going to dig? >> well, most of our mines are copper mines. >> so we should be watching copper if it goes to like $3, should we worry? >> we invest in the bottom half of that respective copper cost curve. if we're down at -- if we see copper drop down, the most expensive mines, the ones that don't have the high operating margins, they shut down first. we invest in the lowest half of the cost curves. >> that's a terrific analysis. i feel better. these things are not without risk but they also have great reward if you catch it. thank you so much. that's randy smallwood, president and ceo of silver wheaton.
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now you know the story. go to the web site, lots of great presentations, a lot of information. "mad money" is back after the break. if you think running a restaurant is hard,
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fees. huge fees! that's what i thought of yesterday when david faber of "squawk on the street" chatted with me about verizon's potential for buying out or simply buying vodafone. you get a $100 billion deal,
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lots of banks, making lots of money with very few people doing the heavy lifting. mergers and acquisitions is a lucrative business. huge fees. dell, a played out old tech stock that hasn't been able to move aggressively into higher valuation added portions of the food chain. not everyone is going to win dell but if you like dell, can i interest new a little piece of hewlett packard maybe? potential breakup and sale coming. call a banker, more fees coming. last i heard announced a 60 million share offering. i like the mortgage insurer with
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capital that has made it. or radiant's deal or the 10 million shares of jcpenney put up by deutsche bank for a quick payday. the bond issuance is coming hard and fast. we've had so many billion dollar issuances, we don't even notice it anymore. but the capital is almost risk free courtesy of our pal ben bernanke. the only real cost, the fees. they all require the same thing, bankers. the housing cycle is back. many of the regional banks are slowly creeping higher. i think they break out soon. they're still trapped by fixation on net interest margins. good revenue growth in the end
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didn't matter one whit with the consumer package plays. maybe the remaining investment bankers that are the winners here could be much bigger than the other financials. we have all become conditioned to believe that dodd/frank wiped out the principal income for these firms, the ability to play hedge funds with their own capital. the agency business has huge profits with little risk. it doesn't hurt that the loss making european banks pull back from this business. that means jpmorgan, which is a pretty darn hot stock, morgan stanley and goldman sachs will see a sudden spirit from their
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businesses. morgan stanley is caught in the hodgepodge. jpmorgan is in very good shape. goldman? they just named this guy as head of mergers and acquisitions. he's got a fresh and aggressive attitude with a global focus. i believe he becomes the rainmaker for goldman sachs going forward. peek under the shroud of dodd/frank. you see investment bankers making money for shareholders without that baggage of used leverage. goldman sachs at ten times a probably way too low 2014 number, it makes sense if they're taking gigantic risks, swinging around billions of their own money, way too low a p/e ratio. sure we want to catch the next takeover if they're coming fast and furious but maybe we should go for the companies that will win most consistently, the fee generating investment banks that i think will crush the earnings estimates during the next reporting period. stick with cramer.
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