d you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. now this...will work. [ male announcer ] just like you, business pro. just like you. go national. go like a pro.

it looks like dennis rodman has made a friend for life. he says he plans to return to north korea to vacation with its leader kim jong-un. rodman, who met with kim last month in a visit that was not endorsed by the state department, says he considers him a friend, even though he doesn't condone what he does.

he plans on going back to north korea in august. that should be interesting. >> birds of a feather. that will do it for this edition of "power lunch." thanks for watching. "street signs" begins right now. the dow sitting near an all-time high, s&p 500 is closing in. everything is fine, right? not so fast. our guests warn there are big flags out there. knolls a massive market cap is google the next microsoft? plus herb is here to help hedge your retirement portfolio. we'll meet a man who allegedly went from pastor to art fraudster. the dow has stayed in report territory, even though as we can see it's down slightly today. the s&p not wanting to be

outdown is staying at its multiyear high, for the sixth straight daddy. if they did, though they're not looking likely, they would have gone for eight straight unbroken days of gains. today might be the day they break that streak. bob, i'm going to go technical. just how stressed is the s&p 500 on a technical basis? >> well, that's one of those old-school indicators, and i watch it pretty carefully. right now about as far above a 200-day moving average as it gets. let me show you something. this is one of the old wives' things that i watch fairly closely. here's the s&p 500. once you start getting above about 8% or 9% above the 200-day moving average, normally the market has a very hard time. it will have to move sideways. this happened back in september when the dow was about -- the

s&p was 8% -- and notice it corrected. it happened back here in march, when we were 10% above it, same thing happened here, sort of moved sideways. right now we're 9% above the s&p 500's 200-day moving average. that's why a lot of people were saying the market is likely to consolidate. i was asked why do we droop in the middle of the day? i would note, they did speak at a conference, and did give comments. i think they were below some of the analyst' estimates. commerce bank over in germany, there was talk about them issuing a big secondary, which hurts some of the financials, back over to you. >> we're going to ask a technician in just a second about that old wives' tale. what's happening in the bond picks? >> interest rates are off for just a bit. even though it's had a great run. what i'm looking at is our ten-year rates, ten-year bund

rates, you end up with a number after 53 to 54 basis points. this is a 33-month wide, if you look at a 20-year chart, it gives you some perspective. this is a great trade for you fixed-income junkies. if you think there's more juice in the stock market than fundamentals, look for yield to move back down. if you hold europe constant with its weakness, maybe the other side of the coin is you believe the rise can get some traction, look for it to widen. whatever your stance, it's a good conservative trade, also a gr barometer on what's better in the u.s. than in europe at this point in time. >> rick santelli, thank you, buddy. back to stocks. the dow is up 10% this year. you might have heard somewhere that it's at an all-time high. the s&p 500 is closing in, watch out albert evers told the

uchitel el graph it feels eerily similar toed mid-2007, it seems destined and designed to destroy value. is he right? let's take is it from the charts first. katie, how is the broader markets looking technically. there are definitely widespread overbought -- that means about 50% to 60% of constituents are overbought. that only matters when we've seen a lot of momentum. so while last week it didn't feel like it, last week had some characteristics of a short-term blow off the top. you see looking for a pullback.

let's call that about 5% on the down side. >> sometimes they can get it right. telling us about the fact that once major indices get maybe 8% or more above the average, it can be significantly difficult to produce higher than without a correction. >> right. there's certainly some mean reversion in the market. you do have in sign of exhaustion in other over bought measures. so some got overly bullish. since then we have seen some subtle rotation into the defensive sectors, including utilities i would highlight. if you look at the utility average, you've seen an up tick that was enough to reverse an intermediate term downtrend.

that does support several weeks of outperformance, which of course have more defensive characteristics. >> you two are way too smart for me. imto put this in layman's terms. what i think i'm hearing is you're calling for a near-term correction, followed by a boom to all-time highs in the s&p 500. >> that's right. positive long-term momentum benefits the market, and we've seen some indices reed new all-time highs. i don't see why it could not do that after a pull back. breadth measures remain strong, that means the participation behind the up trend. we've seen a real nice up trend. >> i want to ask you what's going on with volume. i was looking at a chart of the nicee. it sort of feel like there aren't a huge amount of buyers or sellers, people are bakley sitting on the sidelines. what are the charts telling you about volume?

>> it did feel a bit eerie. when volume tends to send a message is when it spikes. if you see an up tick or surge, that to me would be a bearish short-term development, that would hint at increased volatility. and it's an oversold bounce of sorts would be a natural development in here. >> why is an increase in volume a bearish sign? i would think it would be the other way around. >> i know, that's the stuff in the textbooks, but if you look at history inflection shuns points why that occurs i'm not sure, about you it has been the case. >> is there anything temperaturically different from 2007 that we should be pays attention to? >> for sure. it's the momentum behind the move. the fact that we have seen the indices reach levels that they have exceeded resistance at equivalent strong, so we have

seen these massive breakouts, i would highlight japan as one great example. that to me supports a shift and breakout in the s&p 500 as well. >> katie, thank you so much for joining us with the charts. in the meantime what about the fundamental red flags, we're joined from cooper city, and i want to ask you first of all about the one big red flag that we call europe. how red and glaring is it, louisa? >> glaring. and economic data this week, the talk-back is not working, so i'm mixing the technologies. yeah, the french industrial production, and we had uk industrial production data showing a decline of 1.5%. it caused sterling to fall out of bet quite dramatically. in fact we've seen sterling trading below. the keep technical support level marked straight away through that. now sterling is, like im,

trading below 129 today, a sterling crisis, a week before george osborn's budget. you wouldn't wish it on any financial minister. >> you know i loves you, louise, but i went to greece the first time in 2008, talking how bad it was, 2009, 2010 how bad it was, all the while equities markets in the u.s. are making new highs. >> europe is doing pretty well as well. >> yes, so why is it a red flag? it's been the red flag for the better part of four years, is my point. >> you know what i think? today well a call on the industrial -- what did the ftse do? it's all about monetary policy. it's all about qe. i think the uk is very bad at analyzing what goes on in europe. the reason is we're an island, you know, we've always felt we were an island.

we were chucked out of the euro a long time ago. i don't think the brits get europe. i think what's going on in europe is that they are utterly committed to this project, and i don't think -- yogts a lot of the rest of the world understands that. the greek gdp figures are awful. why would the greeks put up with it? i think it's because the euro is not about economics. it's about politics, it's about safety, it's about the prevention of war. it's not about economics. >> well, you're a brit and hopefully you get it. >> and you're like a brit-light. >> a diet brit. washington house budget committee chairman paul ryan unveiling his new budget today, vows to balance it in ten years instead of 25. john harwood, that sounds nice, but it also sounds, you know, impossible.

>> it's impossible unless you get it enacted into law. democrats hate this budget for the very reason republicans love it, because of the extent to which it cuts spending 4.6 trillion over ten years. it diverts medicaid into a block grant program. he preserves 700 billion worth of medicare cuts that president obama had enacted as part of paying for obama care. it repeals the impend fits under obama care, but keeps the tax increases and the fiscal cliff tax increases. that's what lets paul ryan balance that budget. we're also getting details of the democratic budget proposal, which is much different, has a trillion dollars in tax increases, about the same, over ten year, it does not achieve balance, but reduces the deficit on net. it has $100 billion for economic

stimulus job creation. what we see now is the president has arrived for lunch with senate democrats. he's going to continue all week. house and senate -- because a contrasting house budget proposal, senate budget proposal, and make this the beginning of what they call regular-order process, normal negotiations not drich by crises, where government shutdowns and see if they can reach an accommodation. why not try that? because nothing else has worked. >> john harwood, thank you very much. straight and to the point. do not miss larry kudlow's exclusive interview with paul ryan tonight. on deck here, why might google be the next microsoft? we'll explain. >> we will indeed. plus the secrets your

facebook profile are revealing to everyone, no matter how tight your security settings. we're also keeping an eye on the market. it is currently around session lows.

the tide are changing research firm idc says smimt's of google's android-based tablets will take over i pads

this year. it will be the first time that apple has not commanded at least 50% of the market. >> new research -- a study by the company's economics lab calls into question the value of big money on paid search ads. google seems to be getting into everybody, paid search is still how google gets most of its money. yousef has a buy on google with a $900 target. if other companies are finding low value in paid search, that's a bad thing for google. no? >> well, yeah, you would think, but again you have to really put that article in perspective. there's a couple things that stand out. the first one is clearly the fact that ebay is a brand, right? it's like amazon. amazon, for instance only spends money on two key words, amazon

and kindle. so the bigger the brand, the more known you are, the less money you really need to be spending on whole forms of advertising. that being said, if you are in the business of actually selling widgets that may not be, i.e., you need to spend money on key terms, the key terms that are hard to find. if you're not competing for that, there are a slew of other advertisers that will be competing for them. you know, you have to take that article with a grain of salt. >> and, you know, it does feel nonetheless, that google itself doesn't want to take the chance that it might be in jeopardy and therefore is investing in all these various non-core areas. i guess the biggest challenge is which ones to pick and choose. >> right. well, i think the big change

which we have seenened larry page, the new ceo, the last 18, 24 months is the fact they introduced a lot more discipline is where the -- where the money goes into these new initiatives. as you probably know, they shut down over a dozen or so initiatives, they doubled down on a number of other initiatives that have progress. you mentioned earlier what they're doing in mobile and how mobile platform, or for -- for goog the is now over 50%, with android. that's one of the initiatives, an example of an initiative that is working very well for them. so two years ago or three years ago, everybody was hitting google over the head, now people are looking at them and saying, well, mach -- we think goog the at heart is a 14-year-old company, so they still need to

spend and they have the money do so. >> indeed they do. what is being google's gains? guess what, there are a few flops out there. let's bring in the principal analyst. rocky, it feels like google juans to be god, omnipresent in every part of our lives. >> a friend calls it a benevolent dictatorship. they have a government-like experience where they're taking this money, monopoly profits, and investing it across a whole bunch of different things. you talk about google glass, an interactive experience that you can wear, driverless cars, google wallet. they're all over is the board. some of them are very exciting. i look at that and say, are you guys crazy? this is just a dumb idea. >> that's all nice, rockie, i use a lot of them i don't pay google for any of them.

now they have a laptop with bakley an operating system? hmm, they have a documents program looks a bit like excel. hmm, this is microsoft? why not. 53,000 employees, google is not a start-up anymore. >> definitely not a start-up anymore, but they do have paranoia around them. when i talk to folks at google, they could say search could still go away. i think it's being too optimistic, but there's a healthy paranoia, that a lot of companies get complacent when they get to google's size and success. some of the things they're doing are crazy, but if you look back at google maps, a few years ago they were driving cars around the world. people said why are they doing this? if you looked at what's happened with apple maps, one of the big distinguishes is they don't have good mapping data. google spent a lot of money to do that.

having that competitive advantage is great for google. >> but rocky, my point is this, okay? if that study that ebay did is accurate that paid search does not justify the cost, if other companies determine that, that's still 90-plus percent of google's revenue. >> absolutely. >> are they doing these other thing, because let's innovate, or are they doing it because they're scared? scared of their primary market, paid search, slowing down, and they better darn well find way toss make money someplace else. >> i think they're smart at finding new opportunities. if you're amazon or ebay, sure paid search may not make searches, but if you go on amazon, you search for a product, you don't buy it, when you go to another google site or another site, useed als. it's what they call retargeting. who do you buy that from? you boo i it from google. >> rocky, thank you very much for joining us today. all right.

do you want to be mysterious? if you don't, don't like anything on facebook. a new stilledy by the university of came bring filtered likes from 58,000 facebook profiles. through that it was able to determine sexuality with 88% accuracy, race, political leanings with 85% accuracy and religion, 82% of the time. the study could also be making surprisingly accurate predictions about users' substance use, political views and whether their parents divorced as a child. get this, mandy, and this is true, very bizarrely, it showed that people who liked curly french fries had higher iqs, i was reading the analysis of this particular survey, and they couldn't even work out that correlation between liking curly fries and higher i want qs. i don't know. i like curly fries. >> i would like some right now. herb is up nextic, with two

ways to hedge your portfolio. and which duds of the s&p could become the next studs, you know. a couple fund managers with their top picks, duds to studs, next. [ kitt ] you know what's impressive?

a talking car. but i'll tell you what impresses me. a talking train. this ge locomotive can tell you exactly where it is, what it's carrying, while using less fuel. delivering whatever the world needs, when it needs it. ♪ after all, what's the point of talking if you don't have something important to say? ♪

only hertz gives you a carfirmation. hey, this is challenger. i'll be waiting for you in stall 5. it confirms your reservation and the location your car is in, the moment you land. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase.

herb is here with a way to ensure your portfolio. tell us how to do it. >> this is something that's interesting, something that wealthy people do. they'll go to a short-only fund. if you are worried about your i.r.a. getting smacked, as stocks hover at new highs, you can hedge it with some sort of short exposure, with this catch. you may have to lose money to eventually make money, or at least lessen the blow. this is the grizzly short mutual fund, which has been abysmal, take a look at this chart. it actually did exactly what it was supposed to do in the market's peak in 2008. the market actually started falling, this thing spiked higher, i sold off a bunch of it

letting it run, holding on to it a bit of it now. thankfully it is not the only option out there. among the short funds that can be used for hunging, in addition to the grizzly fund, the federated bear funds, the proshares short s&p etf, and the actively managed etf, which is -- they're actually in there doing the fundamental research. >> i want to ask you how much of the portfolio ideally should be -- >> across the board i've heard people say 15% to be hedged well, but brad lambs dorff is comanager of the rangers actively managed etf. he says 3% to 5%, so it's what you can stomach. remember it's going to continue falling as the market's going up, so the reverse strategy when you want to add, then again it's there for a rainy day as insurance. >> that's how we hedge it. can i ask a question?

>> possibly. >> is it expensive? >> some of them are more expensive than other, but yes, and you're asking me a question, i don't know about the s&p 500 -- >> that's your whole thing. >> you have to pay. >> it's expensive -- >> can i be honest? on this kind of thing, i have it for a reason, not the fees, what it will do, when it would more than compensate for the fees when i need it. >> you're buying protection. >> i am. >> and no price on peace of mind, right, herb? >> easy. >> okay. all right. speaking of that, we've got the giant tub of mayonnaise edition coming up on street talk. but allegedly went from pasta to ad -- cnbc is investigating. that's next.

but we can still help you see your big picture. with the fidelity guided portfolio summary, you choose which accounts to track and use fidelity's analytics to spot trends, gain insights, and figure out what you want to do next. all in one place. i'm meredith stoddard and i helped create the fidelity guided portfolio summary. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. sales event has begun. ♪ featuring a stunning work of technology -- ♪ the lexus es. ♪ this is a reason to look twice.

get great values on your favorite lexus models during the command performance sales event. this is the pursuit of perfection.

maybe that's over, quietly yum brands is about seven bucks off its early february low. and with dick's, one day after dropping. >> goldman sachs coming to the rescue. they are re-adding to their conviction buy list. dick's sporting goods was on their -- until they removed it. they have what they call, quote, a sloppy couple quarters. once goldman sachs took it off the list. but they see a couple.

and also costco with higher than expected quarterly profit. >> can thank rising market shares. who doesn't need a 20-gallon tub of mayonnaise. some have concerns about the margins, more members are paying more. this company has the ability to keep people and members engaged. we have a crash team, is the second worst performer. >> he said there's more sellers than buyers. >> he eats curly fries by the dozens. >> here's why, goldman sachs piling on.

don't look for a best buy. >> and it lost half of its value over the past year. this is one of those companies. find a way that's moving. this is an environmental services company. basically as i get it, they get rid of water and treat water for things like fracking. >> they're soaring on good earnings, sales and guidance. sales also -- the stock was way up in 2008, down 22%, so kind of a one-day pop. you can see it's still down. well, blackberry had a huge rally yesterday, but it is down about 4% today. at&t began taking pre-orders for blackberry's touch screen only. jon fortt is live inside an at&t store in san jose. what are you seeing?

intsds mandy, yeah, here in pallet alternate. let's take a break from the curly fries to talk about the z-10 that launched about a month and a half ago. finally u.s. consumers has a chance to preorder. at&t first out of the gate to allow the pre-orders. $199 with a two-year contract. just like the iphone 5. the market share has been a rough ride for them. from 8% a year earlier. android and ios very much cleaning up. we're kind of entering a post-smartphone era. automatic, a company that launched the product today, actually connects user car's computer to your phone. just working with ios and an droid.

this is iphone country. steve jobs lived not too far from here, so lots of people have been talking about i phones. one woman was saying i can't talk to you, i'm at the apple store, even though it's the at&t store. when i handed someone a blackberry, they said, yeah, it's a pretty nice phone. >> you're also near mountainview, if you hold a galaxy from sam sung, you'll get the evil eye? >> possible gang warfare, you never know. it depends on what phone you're carrying. you have to be -- no, i'm kidding. >> the rough streets of palo alto.

>> i'm going to unlike you. >> it's not far from cupertino. >> it's not a 5, oh, watch it. >> thanks, jon. mean time the company formerly known as r.i.m. has been doing quite a job this year. it begs the very simple question -- why? engining us managing director ed snider. ed, why? >> primarily because of two things. in the initial look, it showed a pretty compelling o.s., and the second one is the rumor of le nova has been floating around. it showed up again yesterday. so between the two lefted expectations. didn't they say they're looking at all kinds of options. and that's one of ones they would be interested in?

>> i guess it's more of a rumor. so clearly they're looking at it. you and actually doing it. you have all sorts of hurdles. one of their telecom giants, which has a big but respectful of whether that's happened, they say it's an easy play for the short term. up about 1%, 20%, you're saying it's overdone, and not based on enough fundamentals? >> well, the fundamentals will be a bit more difficult. even if they have a compelling offering, now it's blocking and tackling, a much tougher environment today than when first introduced. back then they were the only game in town. as you know, iphone and galaxy. there's a lot of cash that will be around, but it will be a

fight to take market share back. i think the stock won't be as attractive once the first results come in, because people will realize you won't take share back nearly as quickly as you gave it up. >> i'm going to call it the 3-d test. i'm launching it right now on "street signs" rim stock or blackberry stock, is it a double from here? does it die? or is it a dog and stays where it is for years? one of the ds, which one? >> what time frame are we talking about? tomorrow? a month? a year? >> a couple years from now. >> it will double. rim is not going to disappear. their cash flow positive. they have a big bank account, they're out of the woods in terms of the threatening part of this turnaround, which is cash burn. if i had to butt on one of those, i would say two years from now, probably double. >> thank you very much, ed. we have a new "street signs" segment. the triple d. up next the story that has the makings of a great crime

novel. how they're at the center of a massive art crime crackdown. what may be the worst single idea ever. it's a story we found that has all of us shaking our heads. you'll hear it coming up, but first what's coming up on "closing bell." you've got me on that one. what we have, a pair of exclusive interviews, first disney chairman and ceo bob iger tells us what's next for the media giants following the blockbester opening of "oz the great and powerful." and the new rumors about the new star films. and john watson explain house the energy giant is cashing in on explosive growth in the shale oil industry. all that and more, we look forward to seeing you. is it possible the win streak is over? we'll know in the next hour, right after "street signs." stay tuned.

[ laughter ] ♪ [ female announcer ] each one of us is our own boss. ♪ and no matter where you are in life, ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ yeah, i'm married. does it matter?

you'd do that for me?

really? yeah, i'd like that. who are you talking to? uh, it's jake from state farm. sounds like a really good deal. jake from state farm at three in the morning. who is this? it's jake from state farm. what are you wearing, jake from state farm? [ jake ] uh... khakis. she sounds hideous. well she's a guy, so... [ male announcer ] another reason more people stay with state farm. get to a better state. ♪ no decision at the conclave. you're looking at black smoke. it is rising, which means no pope has been selected. we are looking for white smoke, a 600-plus year tradition when

the white smoke billows, it means the conclave has indeed selected a pope. no pope selected today. from black smoke to black tie, do you have money to burn? you should check out the black tie cigar. for $500, a hand-rolled dominican cigar wrapped in edible 24 carat gold. it produces golden ashes. you can buy a downed bag for 20 of these monsters, and of course are being sold in several vegas casinos. this gets my early vote for the dullest idea of the year. >> kind of like for the person who has absolutely everybody. what will they think of next? >> you smoke it like -- what was the drink with gold in it, robert? >> i eat a lot of gold. breakfast lunch and dinnerivities if you want to put some money to work outside of the market, by the way, plenty of cool alternative investments

from classic cars to stamps, but which one haus the very best return? robert frank is here with the best bet. robert? >> the world of collecting is now a multibillion dollar business, but the most popular collectibles are not necessarily the best investments. the nine main categories racked up gains over the past ten years, cars were the top performers, rising 23% over the year and 395% over the past ten years. close behind was a much less sexy collectible, coins. old coins outshone cars for the year, up 248% over ten years. stamps were also big. art is the most widely held collectible, gets the most attention, but far more enjoyable to look ought than sell. you can real more about other

collectibles and how did how they did at cbs.com. stick around for this story. the market for fraudulent art is huge. fakes, frauds and forgeries, in new york, arguably the center of the article world is at the center of a growing crackdown. a florida pastor, senior correspondent scott cohn has the story. and compared to other investments these days, it's supposed to hold its value over time. which might explain why some people way want to cheat the market. >> what is the pastor with the own youtube channel doing in a man han courthouse. how did a pastor get into the art-selling business? >> sutherland wouldn't say.

his lawyer says there's a logical explanation. the truth will come out. >> reporter: he pleaded not guilty to charges he tried to pass off these paintings to sotheby's in new york, even though he knew they were fake. he closed the deal at this hotel, not knowing the person across the table was an undercover new york city detective. man hearn district attorney cyrus vance who prosecuted art fraud cases as a young assistant is crashing down. >> it's being stolen the same way as it has been for generation. now our tools to build cases are a bit more sophisticated than 30, 40 years ago. >> the article world is full of forgeries. >> on the realie series "treasure detectives" they investigate all kinds of collectibles. robert whit madge, who founded the fbi's art crime team and words for -- says even with modern technology these cases

are tougher than they seem. >> you have to prove knowledge that the person knew this material was fake and he meant for it to be sold, and he was trying to basically pull the wool over somebody's eyes. >> prosecutors say kevin sutherland tried to sell them even though sotheby's told him the first painting he tried to sell was deemed not authentic. he told investigators he didn't really read the e-mail, but admitted he had had past experience with disputed works of art. he's free on bail, due back in court in new york. that is really fantastic story, isn't it? of course we'll be watching it later on tonight, right? >> that's right. and do not miss as all-new "treasure detectives" tonight at 9:00 p.m. eastern time. up next, the dirtiest shirts in this clean laundry pile. we'll tell you who's missing out of this rally, and if now issed time to get in.

(music throughout) why turbo? trust us. it's just better to be in front. the sonata turbo. from hyundai. transit fares! as in the 37 billion transit fares we help collect each year. no? oh, right. you're thinking of the 1.6 million daily customer care interactions xerox handles. or the 900 million health insurance claims we process.

so, it's no surprise to you that companies depend on today's xerox for services that simplify how work gets done. which is...pretty much what we've always stood for. with xerox, you're ready for real business.

well, tomorrow, we're going to be coming to you live from the home depot product walk in las vegas. 1,200 suppliers, mandy, are going to be on display. we're going to sit down with martha stewart and frank blank, the chairman and ceo of home depot. and i apparently am going to be racing somebody on a tractor. and that is a true story. i cannot wait. >> you're going to be racing them how? >> they're on a tractor, i'm on a tractor, and we will be tractoring. >> okay, the tractor race is on. okay, we're still, by the way, on s&p watch, not nearly as interesting as race tractors, but nonetheless, we are mere points away from a new high on the s&p, zpidespite the fact th we are slightly lower for all fly indices. not all stocks are riding this rally. take a look at these slugs of the s&p. that's what we're calling them. the companies that have performed the worst since the last high in '07.

are any of these laggards going to turn into leaders? let's bring in michael. let me get to you, first of all, which slug would you put your money on? >> well, we don't currently own any of them, but i would say that aig, bank of america would be good long-term investments. i think there's a couple of other names in there. e-trade, for example, where there might be other players like a schwab that might be a better bet long-term, which we do own. u.s. steel, i would say, newcorp may be a better bet. it's a more nimble operation. so the industries, maybe there's better ideas tout there. there's a reason some of these stocks are down. on the other hand, some of them have really good long-term prospects. >> and brent, you're also backing aig, i sere here. >> yes, i am. and mandy, i would like to get in on that tractor race. that sounded pretty good. >> me too. he shouldn't have all the tractor fun, is all i'm going to say. >> yeah. aig, i bought this company back

when it was 85, sold, got rid of it, so forth. they've gone through major companies here. and you've got a book value of 0.6. that's well below the industry of 1. they're sales are now 10%. that's better than the industry. their net profit margin is 11.8. and if you look at december 2014 earnings, they're $3.95. use a multiple, just 15 on that, you have a stock price of $59 a share. that's a 52% gain. so i like aig, i like first solar. first solar, here's another one that got beaten up. people loved this five years ago, up 300, now the stock's at 25. i wrote a column about this back in the summertime in the paper. was at 15, now at 25. the stock, based on the multiple of 15, $3.25 on the earnings, it could be up $50 a share and now we've doubled. look at the valuations on these companies and look ahead. >> that's a big bet, though. the solar sector has really been crushed, brnt. that's really sticking your head

out, isn't it? >> and that's what i love. i love when things are crushed. now at 25, it's way too low. it sounds like, how is it going to go from 25 to 50, but that's nowhere near the 300 it was five years ago. look at what we're paying for these earrings. very small amount, and i'm just using a multiple of 15 on these earrings. how many companies right now trade above a multiple of 15? many companies. i just want my company to trade at 15 times earnings in 2014. so about a year and a half away. >> michael, we rolled this thing out about ten minutes ago, on the fly, the 3-d test. what stock's going to double, what's going to die, and what's going to be a dog. if you had to look at these dogs, what's the most likely stock that could double? >> i think aig is a good bet and i think bank of america. i think both of them are strong, underlying businesses. clearly, the real estate issue is starting to subside with b of a and it's heavy in real estate. the asset management through merrill lynch is going very well. i think it's a company with great long-term prospects in a

number of different business areas and it's relatively cheap. aig, the underlying insurance businesses were kept in tact through the financial crisis, and i think there's a lot of operating leverage there. as brett mentioned, is just starting to get realized. those would be my two bigger bets. i think some of the other names, there's other, better players. >> what do they say? every slug has its day. michael, brent, thank you very much for joining us. let's send it straight over to courtney reagan with a quick market flash. what are you looking at, court. >> take a look at shares of diamond foods. shares down more than 10%. basically, the company report earrings that were very disappointing, getting a downgrade from d.a. davidson. and now this short s.e.a.l. restriction has been triggered. you can see your shares is down 10.4%. mandy, back over to you. >> courtney, thank you so much. coming up next, a special stat for the cat in the hat.

all right. we're jumping in here with some breaking news. there you see the president, obviously. he is leaving to meet with senate democrats. a lot of budget talk out there. we showed you the president earlier moving the through the halls of capitol hill and the white house. the president leaving to meet with senate dems. so, again, more, if we get it, when the day that paul ryan laid out his idea for the budget. by the way, he'll be on kudlow tonight. quick break and we're back with more after this. thank you orville and wilbur... ...amelia... neil and buzz: for teaching us that you can't create the future... by clinging to the past.