and finally tonight, my observation on activist investors and picking your spots. you have heard me on this segment before say that the re-emergence of the activist investor is usually a positive for these markets. they will push for moves that are often good for shareholders. such as allocating cash to dividends and buybacks, which push stock prices up. if you look at the list of stocks that have been the target of activists, you have to believe when an activist gets involved the stock may very well be poised to move up. s&p capital iq keeps track of the stocks heavily owned by activist investors, and you can get an average gain of and 13%.

beating the average s&p 500. but activist investors sometimes miss the mark. recently the walt disney company ceo bob iger was chajtd to split up the arm and ceo role. a lot of time and effort has gone into this. even though the performance of the company and the stock has been stellar by virtually every metric. in fact, disney has nearly doubled since october of 2011. i asked iger about what he fended off earlier on "closing bell." >> i think that this was essentially a cause searching for a problem. the walt disney company has been a great performer for now quite a long period of time, good solid seven years. we do not have any governance issues. we have a board that is very independent. fiercely so, as a matter of fact. 90% of our board. nine of our ten members are independent. >> iger may have hit on something when he said this was a cause searching for a problem. my take, activists are great when needed but making noise

just to make noise cuts into the credibility of those trying to do a good thing for shareholders at companies that do in fact need a push from the outside. that'll do it for us for tonight on "closing bell." thank you so much for joining us. i'll see you on thursday. "fast money" begins right now. have a great night. live from the nasdaq marketsite in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. here's what "fast" is following tonight. smartphone war. samsung is upping the antes at the company unveils a new galaxy phone but should you be buying the hype? pinching pennies or separating winners from losers ahead of tomorrow's big sales number. and retail detail. are individual investors coming back to the stock market yet? the ceo of td ameritrade gives us his read on investor confidence. but first a developing story here tonight. the faa approving the boeing 787 certification plan. cnbc's phil lebeau has the latest on what this may mean for boeing. phil? >> melissa, this is a path for

boeing to follow to hopefully get the 787 dreamliner back in service, perhaps four, five, six weeks from now, once they've done some test flights, when they've done more analysis of the tests they're going to run in the subsequent weeks. here's essentially what the faa has set out for boeing. it has approved boeing plan for fixing the dreamliner battery system. that plan calls for redesigning the lithium ion batteries, redesigning the case that holds the battery unit, and also calling for great er checks, if um, so that the crews that work on the dreamliner will be able to better monitor if there are any problems with these lithium ion batteries. there are going to be two dreamliners that will be going up for test flights. and there are specific test criteria that boeing will have to meet before the faa says you know what, we think this fix works, we approve it, all completely across the board, and then eventually you see those fixes put into the 50 dreamliners that are already out in service or were in service that are now grounded.

so the bottom line is this, melissa. over the next several weeks there are going to be a number of test flights. there's going to be other test that's are done. the faa will look at that data and then determine yes, these fixes actually do work. and then once that happens we could see the grounding of the dreamliner lifted. melissa? >> so again, the bottom line, phil, as soon as when could we see 787s back in the air? >> depends on how quickly the tests go, whether or not there are any problems, meaning they have to have further testing. most people i've talked with, both in washington as well as at boeing out in seattle, they believe that it's possible we could see the dreamliner grounding lifted by third or fourth week of april. that might be a little ambiti s ambitious. but again, it all depends on how well the tests go and how the test criteria, what the results come back and what they say. >> all right. phil, thanks for giving us the update on that developing story. phil lebeau joining us from chicago. and boeing, we should say that this is a stock that didn't really feel it too badly when the 787s were grounded here. >> we should say that because the stock's up 15% since, you

know, half their fleet was grounded. it really comes to orders at the end of the day. you have a situation where earnings expectations are supposed to grow 20-plus percent this year, 15% next year so, you have to look out and see if they keep that order growth rate, what investors expect, otherwise this thing sets up for a disappointment in my opinion. >> rets get to the traders tonight and today's market action, the dow rallying for the eighth straight day. that is the longest winning streak in two years. so guy. >> hi. >> hey there. >> what's up? >> i'll start out with you because you had a very good call at the end of january. take a listen. >> come on. >> i think we'll push up somewhere between 1535 and 1560 and that's where we're going to top out for the year. we said it will coincide with ten-year rates going to 2%. guess what? they got magically close. we also said it would coincide with the vix trading down to 12 which i do believe we'll get to. >> so using your words, spot on when it comes to those calls. >> it all sort of did line up and it happened obviously here in march. the good news for the bulls, i guess, is the fact that we're still hovering around these

levels. what i thought would happen last week when we talked about it on thursday, we'd see a spikes after the jobs number, which we did. i thought you'd see a subsequent sell-off, which we did. but the sell-off was short-lived and the market rallied again. so here we are sort of hovering around these levels. today wasn't great. but again, there's probably in my opinion it's got to be a move, this violent move up that washes everybody out, followed by a subsequent move lower. you're probably still going to see that. but i think we're dangerously close now to the highs for the year. >> but is this a correction within an upward trend? because a lot of people are saying i do believe in this run higher, josh, but i do see, you know, 3% to 4% correction that could actually happen within this larger upward trend. >> okay. so first let's pray for a correction. >> why? >> because nobody's invested enough. no one. pension funds aren't. insurance industry. no one. so let's first of all -- and then second let's look at the data. there are an average of three 5% corrections every year going back to 1900. there are an average of one 10% correction every year. and every 3 1/2 years we get a

20% correction. so let's root for these things. let's not sit here on our hands and worry about catching the top, oh no, am i going to lose 3% of my capital in the next week. it's a really dangerous game to play. if you're saving for the long term and you're trying to grow essentially your purchasing power. that's what this is all about at the end of the day. i don't think we should focus on catching the top. >> those are great points. but i would say this. that committing new capital right here when you know we're going to get a 5%, possibly a 10% sxefrks 3 1/2 years a 20% correction, committing new capital doesn't make a whole lot of sense. >> so we agree. here's what we're telling clients right now. first of all we're emphasizing mega caps. they're the most profitable and right now they're the cheapest relative to other size companies. number two, we want exposure to certain things and not exposure to others. so we're focusing on things like the financial markets, construction. and dan, to your point, history shows you are not typically rewarded 50 days out from buying at new all-time highs. so we have been advocating not adding new names, just keeping

the names that we like, and maintaining an exposure. and i think that's the right posture for this moment in time. >> for agile traders like you guys, though, there are always opportunities in every market. so top trades today, karen. >> i don't think of myself as an agile trader, actually. i think of myself as sort of a long-term investor. >> you ruined her segue with that. >> i'm sorry. i didn't mean to be a segue ruiner. >> for intelligent traders who can always find an opportunity no matter what your time frame is in any market. >> there you go. so for us we're looking at what's really worked but i still want to have some up side? citigroup is one that has worked really nicely this year. maybe it's got a little bit ahead of itself as it's caught up to some of the other big money center banks in terms of its price to book and price to earnings. it's closed the gap a fair amount with jpmorgan and bank of america, for example. so i still want to own it but we sold some upside calls, bought some down side puts, caller, as dan likes to tell people at 5:00 on fridays. that's kind of what we did. i don't trade around a ton.

but i want to take a little money off the table. >> josh, top trade. >> right now pfizer is honestly, this is as textbook as it gets. here's a stock that attempted to get over 27 1/2 three times. finally got through, rallied and now it's retesting that breakout level, which should serve as support going forward. if you're looking for an entry in a pharma name that hasn't gone crazy yet, i really like pfe. >> dan. >> i like to think of myself as one of those agile traders. i'm looking short term. i'm not trying to pick a top here. but the nasdaq is really underperformed the broader indices over the last few weeks here. i think if you're a trader and you want to try to get some short exposure the nasdaq makes sense. apple is set. it's going to 400 or possibly lower in the near term here, people. the qqq is one way to play that. >> and guy -- >> hi there. there's nothing agile about me. i'm more the bronco nagurski type. wise guy. but you stick with the plays that work. old green bay packers stuff. and tenet healthcare, thc, has

been a monster. another 6 or 7-year high it made today with no -- seemingly no end in sight. big short interest, about 8%, which is significant in that stock. and i think the run will continue here. thc. >> it's still down 80% from its all-time high. that's amazing even though it's a double, even though it's a double. >> it's been a monster the last year or so. >> absolutely. the dow of course having its best run since february 2011. but not everyone is participating. our next guest says the retail investor is coming back although slowly. for more let's bring in fred tomsic, president and ceo of td ameritrade. >> it's great to be here. >> what are you looking for in terms of indicators, the data you have to have at your fingertips to know the retail investor is or is not coming back? >> we look at a number of indicators, whether it's mutual fund sxechlt tf flows, which you're starting to see it go back into equities for the first time in a long time, but bond flows are still very strong. number two is we look at the investor movement index, which is a new index we've introduced, which talks about what our retail investors are actually

doing, how they're actually positioning their portfolio, and right now the index is at 5.14, which is increasingly bullish and the highest rate since june of 2011. >> so where's the money coming from? if you're not seeing a rotation that so many people have been talking about out of bond funds because you're seeing the flows continue into bonds. where is that fresh capital coming from? is it -- because we had a report a couple weeks back saying that employment is improving and so therefore people are putting money into their 401(k)s once again. what's your theory? >> we've been -- so one statistic we look at is net buys. so every day we settle with the market. and so far this year you may find this number hard to believe but it's been $12 billion of net buys by our client base. they're definitely moving into the market, particularly the r.a.a. channel has definitely invested into this market. and written this up. and you're seeing the s&p 500 up, what, 14% last year. 9% this year. i think you could see people getting their bond fund statements this time for the first time this quarter. and where it may be flat to down. and i think that's going to be

interesting to see what happens there. >> let me ask you something. when you say your retail investor, who is that retail investor? how big is their account? how much are they -- what is their model portfolio? who is that retail investor? >> well, we take all of our 5 million retail clients and then we narrow it down to anyone that changed position in the month. so anybody that actually moved to be -- change their security or reinvested a dividend, et cetera. and that's the population we do it off. and the average number, we actually equalize all the different instruments so that you get rid of the difference between options and stocks, and then we take the median number is what the imx is calculated off of. >> fred, i want to get to what you see retail investors are buying and what they're selling because they're very interesting names and i'm wondering if you could sort of walk us through and give us your theory as to why they're doing this. if you take a look at what investors are buying, facebook, apple, 3dsystems, big momentum name, intel, conoco phillips, and what they're selling, some

of the big gainers, netflix, ge, bristol-myers and jpmorgan. >> at our client base, the ones that are more active to use a term, active investors, they tend to have a contrarian nature. so stocks you listed jpmorgan, netflix, ge, general electric. they're all at like 52-week highs. they've had nice runs. they're rotating out of those, taking profits, and moving into stocks that they see as undervalued right now. whether you agree with it or not. but it's apple. it's going to be intel. and it's going to be facebook are the three names that the most pront. >> mike kuo, do you have a question for fred? >> i think he's starting to answer it which it sounds as if some of the self-directed investors from one of the things you're just saying here become a little bit more sophisticated. is that your view and that that probably makes them sort of more durable participants in the marketplace? and my second question would be if you do see somewhat of a steady increase in rates how you think that might impact you this year. >> well, i think the first thing

is our client base and the ones that are in the market right now, we did start out and say they're actually coming back but at a slow pace. so it has been at a slow pace they're coming back. but the ones that are there are definitely getting more bullish. and we do have a client base. we have the largest book of active traders in the market on the retail side. and they will tend to be contrarian, and they are increasingly bullish right now. there's no question about that in our experience. >> last quick question, fred. bottom line for us in terms of the whoosh that everybody's expecting to eventually come into the markets. do you still think that is yet to come? with all the retail money that had been sitting on the sidelines. >> i don't see evidence of that happening. you're not seeing the great rotation out of bonds and into equities. i think the market's had a nice run here, but i think what's overhanging us still is uncertainty about washington and if we could ever get through this gridlock we have here and get through this budget and whatnot, if they give it a little bit of help with the

long-term credible plan, i think this market could go. >> fred-g to see you. fred tomczyk, cref td ameritrade. josh brown, you are though seeing amongst your clients a rotation out of bonds. >> mostly prospective clients. we're having a lot of conversations with wealthy households that in real life don't have anything to worry about. but there's this sense that money is being made and they're not a part of it. you're seeing equity etfs get a nice uptick and you're seeing less purchasing of bond funds, which probably is the har bipger of some selling. i think what ends up happening with the wealth management channel, just real quick here, they tend to make decisions based on prior returns over the past three-year period. for whatever reason that's what they do. and i'm talking about the managers, not just the investors. whaends up happening is stocks now look better versus bonds over three years. and i think that's kind of the rumble that we're seeing on the higher end. not necessarily in the smaller retail brokerage accounts.

>> going to take a quick break here. but as we head to break take a quick look at a stock that's moving in the after-hours session. we're watching dole foods plunging 5% on a fourth quarter revenue miss. dole also missed on eps. this will be one to watch. meantime coming up next on "fast" the smartphone wars intensifying. samsung this week unveils its latest galaxy smartphone model. what's on the line for apple, blackberry, and the other players out there? and shares of this leading home builder up 42% over the past year. we debate whether this rally is on shaky ground. more "fast" straight ahead. i'm a conservative investor. but that doesn't mean i don't want to make money. i love making money. i try to be smart with my investments. i also try to keep my costs down. what's your plan? ishares. low cost and tax efficient. find out why nine out of ten large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses.

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to deposit checks from anywhere. [ wind howling ] easier than actually going to the bank. mobile check deposit. easier banking. standard at citibank. and welcome back to "fast money." i'm sue he herrera focusing on gold which briefly touched the 1600 an ounce mark. that put it at its highest settlement price since february 27th. gold gaining of course as the stock market struggled a bit today and underpinning it also a bullish technical divergence in the precious metal. melissa, back to you. >> thank you very much, sue herera. on the back of this move in gold we also saw gold miners catch a bit today. the gdx up 2 1/2%. >> this is the best day in i can't remember how long. whaends up happening is expectations have been dialed down severely.

this is one of the few sectors that's down on the year. but traders saw a bounce opportunity. they took it on this rally in gold. now the thing to be careful of is not staying too long. it's rallied right into the 20-day moving average. could see some resistance right at this level. >> well, the showdown between samsung and apple intensifies this week. samsung gets ready to launch its galaxy 4 smartphone. apple's down 40% since its all-time high. will this be the catalyst to push apple even further lower? dan morgan is an apple shareholder and a portfolio manager at synovus trust. darngs it's great to see you. let's lay out your position here. you've owned apple since 2004, 2005. you still own it. i'm wondering if at this point in time do you see that samsung is pretty stiff competition for apple? >> well, obviously, melissa, they are. you look at the market share gains that they've had just in the last two years. i think they went from like 8% to a third of the market in a very short period of time. so obviously, they're impacting apple. we've talked i think before

about apple on cnbc with me and our cost basis is so low, we've had it on the buy list for so long, so we have a much different perspective than somebody who's a trader or somebody who owns it at a much higher price in regards to kind of reacting to this new phone introduction coming out on thursday. samsung has 80 phones. they've got a lot of stuff out there. they've got a new version coming of the galaxies on thursday but we'll have to see how it plays out. >> it's karen. i think of myself as a long-term investor as well but i feel like every night i choose to rely my portfolio. and other than taxes really shouldn't make any difference what my basis was when i think about whether or not i want to continue to hold something. so i wonder how is it that your basis is one of the relevant things that you find you make decisions buy? >> you have to remember, too, that apple has become in some cases over 10% of portfolios because it's gone up so much. so obviously, the cost basis has a lot to do with that.

and fundamentally, apple isn't a terrible stock to own going forward. we still, you know, believe in the name. it's still on our buy list. we still think there's things down the road that can develop for them that will do very well. i understand the short-term nature of your question. but we just don't look at it in those terms and we believe fundamentally that apple is still a good investment. >> well, that leads me to my next question, dan. what fundamentally would -- could change or what would you need to see change in order for you to reevaluate the position? >> well, we'd have to see a dramatic drop in market share. you look at in the u.s., i think apple in the last quarter is 34% market share. samsung's 32% market share. if i started to see a story like we saw with blackberry or nokia where we just see this diving market share every quarter in terms of their phones, then obviously we'd have to make a big adjustment on what we're doing. but at this point they're still leading in the u.s. they've fallen a little behind worldwide. i think they're about 14%.

but we'd have to see like a nokia story or a rimm story -- >> hey, it's josh. let me -- >> -- off the top and falling down before we'd make a massive change in our perspective. >> let me follow up on that question because i think that's a good point. but my opinion on a dramatic falloff is that by the time you actually see that in the fundamentals the market has probably discounted it. i don't think rimm, for example, had such a dramatic falloff prior to the stock already getting cut in half. so what are your sig naltz going to be? are they going to be backward-looking quarterly earnings report? what's going to tell you there's that fallout in time in order to get out of something before it collapses? >> well, not backward-looking earnings reports. obviously, those are already priced in. what else can you look at other than market share data to get an idea what phones are being sold? i mean, you know, obviously you have new opportunities for apple and china and so forth. you have monitoring what samsung is doing in terms of are their

products that much more superior to p a'll's? are they that much more better from an engineering perspective. there's a lot of other factors that go into it but it's not just looking back at last quarter's earnings and saying this. >> let's take a look at samsu samsung's offerings because of the big event coming up this week. you say that samsung has a better sized phone than the iphone, although the iphone may be cleaner. you also say it's an issue of pricing, samsung has some cheaper phones. they're also better positioned in the tablet market in terms of what consumers want, the sub8-inch category, dan. so at this point you take a look at those offerings and you see that samsung is very competitively positioned in both the smartphone as well as the tablet market. that's not enough to convince you to maybe take a second look at apple? >> well, you're summarizing some key points. you look at samsung with android. they have the open architecture. that's a great way to go. you have apple with kind of the closed architecture. i think apple's a little easier to handle from an engineering

perspective and so forth. i've seen a lot of the offerings that samsung has. they are bigger phones. some people like big phones versus small phones. they're definitely a fierce competitor. obviously, they've had tremendous market share gains. but you know, it's not like apple -- you guys spend a lot of time kind of, you know, ditching apple. but you know, it's still a very formidable company and they have very good products. and the 34% market share in the u.s. >> no one will deny -- >> give a little bit of a chance. >> you know what? dan, i've got my iphone right here. >> i agree. >> okay. >> karen is long the stock. the only reason why we spend so much time on apple and why we raise some of these competitive pressures is because since the high we have been on this stock and the stock has only gone lower. so that's why we talk about this stock. >> right. >> just to be clear on that. there's no other reason other than, you know what, investors out there, it was a rough ride from $700.

>> right. >> all right, dan, we're going to leave it there. thanks for joining us. >> thanks, melissa. >> dan morgan of synovus trust. always a good sport when it comes to the apple discussion. but you mention turning on a dime. and you take a look. and this is a different market, different -- but when you take a look at what nokia did in china within the span of one year, they went from 30% market share to 3.7% market share. that happened within one year. consumers are that -- >> they also don't give you the heads-up when orders are dropping off at the retail stores. nobody calls and tells you. so you're essentially left with dealing with historical data. it always amazes me how you could love a stock but pay zero attention to the chart for risk management. i feel like it would save people a lot of heartache. >> yeah. >> quickly, my biggest concern is as much money as people made in apple, i have a bad feeling that -- >> people lost a lot of money as well. >> people will wind up -- this will be a stock that will cost people money. that's my biggest concern because as karen says, it

doesn't matter where you're long, it only matters where it's going. and the last couple months it hasn't been going in your favor. so i think to karen's point you need to reevaluate every single day. >> and every day you own it is a decision that you have essentially bought the stock. >> and continue to own. . >> here's the biggest problem, though, real quickly. why is this stock trading right now, it's not trading on products? we're not even talking about itv. we're talking about cash distribution. it's a financial engineering story now. and that is not why people own that stock in 2010, 11, 12. >> i think it is a momentum out of favor story having nothing to do with the balance sheet -- >> when we talk about apple going higher it's usually in the context of a buyback or dividend -- >> the problem is the shareholder base is shifting from what was a momentum shareholder base, big growth funds that had to overweight it, now the new buyers coming in are value-oriented investors and that's a process that plays out over quarters. >> this is going to -- >> quarters. >> when it breaks and capitulates, the ka pitching has not come yet, and it's going to come with a three handle, and i think it's a long-term hold at that point. >> desperately seeking alpha.

anthony scaramucci of skybridge capital tells us how hedge funds are trying to play catch-up in this rally. the best way dope with headwinds such as higher income taxes. more "fast" straight ahead. [ kitt ] you know what's impressive?

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saved like $480 bucks. that's a lot of money. i know, right? wait...you have a car? yeah, an suv. [ male announcer ] switch and you could save $480 bucks with state farm. welcome back to "fast." we're live at the nasdaq marketsite in times square. traders watched the so-called short interest data to get an idea of which stocks, hedge funds and other stocks investors are betting against. we ran a couple of screens of that data as of monday. the first screen here is stocks heavily shorted where the shorts increased their positions. stocks with an increasing number of investors betting against them. interesting names there. barnes & noble, restoration

hardware, jcpenney, 3-d systems. next list, stocks heavily shorted but the hedge funds are backing off of their short position. so covering their negative bet. short interest is decreasing as a percent. what stood out to you, josh? >> restoration hardware stood out to me. recent ipo. used to be public, went private, kim back. it's like a $1.5 billion market cap. this stock is clearly in the sweet spot of what's going on in the luxury home building, luxury home remodeling. if you've been to the stores you know what the wares are. i think it's surprising that they're already shorting the stock. there really aren't any flies in the story just yet that i can see. >> cliff's natchez is the one that sticks out to me. 20% short interest. two-year down trend, which doesn't appear to want to be broken. what you need to see in this stock, i believe, is a day where it trades 20 to 25 million shares on a big whoosh lower. all the shorts might cover them. that might be a trading opportunity. i haven't seen it yet. i don't see any reason right

now. >> a couple of retailers stood out to me aside from restoration hardware. jcpenney the short interest going higher. and best buy the sentiment seems to be turning because short interest is decreasing. >> jcpenney to me it's the weakest part of the short story is how crowded it is. if the valuation to me still seems just ridiculous. so i'm sticking with the short and short the debt. >> i'll just say that jcpenney's one of those where they're loading up, the shorts are levering up their short bets with options. like in massive, massive size. >> i've been using them to hedge the short -- >> they're levering up those shorts. they're saying they're so certain this thing's going to the low teens that they're going to be willing to commit capital to it on top of -- >> sought short sentiment is greater than just the short interest read from the nyse because the options market -- >> yes. >> good bottom line there. hedge funds underperforming the s&p 500 in 2012 and they're not faring much better in 2013. goldman sachs finding hedge funds have returned 3% year to date compared to nearly 9% on the s&p 500. so how are they playing catch-up

now? let's bring in anthony scaramucci, managing partner at skybridge capital. >> melissa, how are you doing? let's explain quickly what's going on. >> sure. >> a really smart manager gets long stocks that he likes. let's say the market's up 9. he's up 11 on those. but he's also short stocks. and the problem is in this excess liquidity those stocks are going up on him. so he's up three, meaning his longs are up 11, he's outperforming on the long picks, his shorts are up eight. so he's actually outperforming the market on his short picks, but his net result is plus three. and this is what's been going on for the last 24 months in the hedge fund industry. so the prediction here is going to be very difficult this year to play catch-up. unless there's a risk off move and hedge fund managers step into the equity markets. there are places to go, though. jana, omega, third point. these guys will probably outperform as they did last year because they're excellent stock pickers and they have a little bit of beta in the portfolio. but if you're looking for names that seem to be hedge

fund-oriented names on the long side from some of the best and brighter long, managers, that would include aig, gm, bank of america. and we're watching a rotation now away from apple which we were talking about last segment into google where google could be the next apple where apple was the next microsoft. if you followed that -- >> is it a logical rotation if google is the next apple, will it eventually become such a darling and so overowned or -- >> i believe that's a very big risk long-term in the google story as you see this rotation because they do have the product innovation on their side. and they've got a lot of cash on the balance sheet. and those other names are all in the 9 p/e zone. so they seem cheap. >> anthony, when you allocate to these funds, does it make you nervous when they're all in apple or right now they're all in aig? how do you think about hey, i really like these managers, it's just unfortunate there's so much overlap in these top ten hedge funds? >> okay. this is the central thesis of the debate with gary kaminsky a few weeks ago. we personally don't do a lot of

long-short. as an example, the index is 55%. we're probably 1.7% exposed. we're significantly underweighted along short because i don't like the current scenario. our research team, troy gayeski and ray nolte done like the scenario. long short managers are going to struggle in this environment. sought short answer is no, josh. we're staying away from those sorts of people. >> all right. >> for now. >> thanks for stopping by. >> see you guys. thank you. >> anthony scaramucci of skybridge. time now for pops and drops. the big movers of the segment you might have missed. pop for seagate, up 5%. mike kuo. >> yeah. so they announced they've actually shipped now 2 billion drives since inception. what's interesting is more thha of those got delivered in the last four years. taking a look at some of the statistics and actually most of them are superlative if you look over the last five years, more units, bigger margeins and so on. still you have to wonder whether the bear thesis eventually plays out. >> pop for valero. >> i don't trust this move.

the stock has been a huge performer. it started to roll over. today it had this pop out of nowhere. but actually momentum in the form of rsi is not confirming today's move. so i would not be a buyer. >> drop for nike. the move 2%. >> otr had some negative comments on nike. i think that got the ball rolling. the company reports their q2 earnings next week. here's a company that's outperformed the s&p since the november -- you can see investors taking some profits in front of that report. >> pop for microsystems, popping 8%. >> yeah. this is a great company actually that makes hospitality software and hardware, restaurants, you go in and see them punch in your order. but with the move today was because of value act, flushtd with their cash probably from gardner denver, has taken a position here. >> drop for red hat, down 5%. >> downgraded at city. this was a great story for four years. the last couple months have been dicey. it's dangerously close to breaking a trend line. has to hold the 52-week low. that's far from here.

i don't think you buy it tomorrow. i do think it's a great story. but i think you've got to wait on this one, folks. >> and a pop here for life on mars. yes, scientists at nasa announcing today that the "curiosity" rover found evidence that the planet mars could have supported life. nasa coming to this conclusion after the rover drilled ton a sedimentary rock near an ancient stream bed. it found sulfur, hydrogen, oxygen, and phosphorus, all key ingredients of course for living microbes. >> if they find a budweiser cab, we're in business. >> then they know for sure. >> buzz aldrin says within 20 years we're going to colonize mars. buzz said that. you don't want to mess with buzz aldrin. that guy's jack. he's like 105. he can kick my rear end. >> coming up next, a look at whether the income tax hike is taking a big bite out of retail sales. we'll take a position ahead of tomorrow's government report. and are there cracks in the foundation of the toll brothers rally? one of these traders thinks so. josh brown and dan nathan go toe to toe in a good old-fashioned street fight. later on cnbc, "the kudlow

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welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq marketsite in a rainy sometimes square. shares of the nation's leading luxury home builder soaring over the past year, but just how stable is the foundation, ha ha, of toll brothers' rally? josh is our bull, dan's the bear. 90 seconds total to make the cases. so josh, kick it off. >> i think there were very high expectations going into the february quarter. they had beat the prior quarter by 900%. so they ended up missing by 100 houses. the stock got hit. the hardest it's been hit in one day in four years. i think what ended up happening was you got an opportunity to enter the stock in a really good sector. so i like it. >> here's the thing. so they reported their -- i think it was their q1 on february 20th that coincided with a pretty weak new home sales number at the same time. you know, my issue with these stocks, if we really are going to have a housing recovery that turns into something more than what we've done off of the bottom heresy think these stocks are priced for perfection. toll brorkts is trading at the

same level it was back in 2006 when it had peak earnings at about $4.50. they're expected to have less than a dollar in earnings right now. so it's trading at like 35 times this year's earnings. so what my -- i would say is if you believe in the housing story, there's either better ways to play like in a name like ford that trades eight times -- >> let me stop you before the segment runs out. securities analysis 101. we're not looking for low p/e ratio in a cyclical sector. we want high p/e ratios compressing price to earnings means we're already at a peak. right now we're at closer to a trough than a peak. what else you got? >> all right, genius. securities 101. here's the deal, though. in the short term i don't think there's a great entry point. i think if you look at the chart i think 30 makes a whole heck of a lot of sense. let's digest some of this economic data secrecy it get incrementally better. i think some of the data's been better. but toll's going to report their q2 in june. if there are any kinks in the armor then, i think this stock gets rerated. i do think it's expensive. i think there's better ways to play a housing recovery in names

like ford. >> by the way, when somebody says securities analysis 101, that's not a trade school. that's a takedown. mike kuo. >> boom. >> weigh in on this. >> yeah, dan was saying 2006 this company did over $6 billion in revenue. less than 2 now. they had almost a $15 billion backlog of orders at that time. now it's about 4. i'm absolutely with dan in this camp. i think if you buy home builders it's a little bit like shorting rates, and i think that's insane. >> we want to know who you thought won our street fight. tweet us @cnbcfastmoney using the #bull or #bear and we'll share the results at the end of the show. should be a good one there. and i thought we were actually going to have a street fight, like an actual fight when he said 101. >> all right. next trade, tomorrow's retail sales number is in focus as investors want to see the fallout from the payroll tax hike and fewer retailers are actually giving monthly sales figures. a portfolio manager at durbin capital. he invests exclusively in retail. how are you positioning for

these numbers? steve, good to see you. in so many department stores have opted not to report the monthly figures. arguably, could this government report be more important than in the past? >> yeah, i think it is because it's a data point. and this year for the first time you don't have all the data points from all the department stores, a lot of the specialty stores. so it is going to be important. but the government data has historically been inaccurate in terms of a read on the economy. sow can't do a great evaluation in terms of what all the retailers used to report as comp store sales as opposed to government data. but the bottom line is retail sales tomorrow should be fairly benign. they may even be lousy because you have -- you're up against very difficult comparisons to last year because last year's february instead of being rainy and 40 or 50 it was sunny and 70 degrees. everyone was buying clothes. home depot was selling all that landscaping stuff. and you also have the payroll tax hit. and you also have this income tax deferral or the refund extension which caused a lot of retailers to say february was a miserable month.

>> so walk us through the winners and the losers here because you started out saying they may be benign but they also may be lousy. >> i guess i'm saying they could be -- they should be benign. they may -- the optics may be lousy, but that should give you a buying opportunity because the reality is that the consumer is back. the consumer is spending. and you're really getting that as a sense from a lot of the retailers that you speak to. and even walmart indicated today that sales in the beginning of the month why terrible. that's where all those e-mails were leaked. and they said business was recovered in the end of february and beginning of march. >> the consumer is spending, granted, but is the consumer back? in other words, are we just getting ourselves back into the same problem we had four or five years ago when they're spending things, money they don't have? >> i think the consumer has cleaned up their balance sheet quite a bit. so they've paid down their debt. and when i say the consumer's back, i should say the consumer's coming back. it's not to where the heady days

were in 2007, where they were just buying everything. but you're really seeing that housing is coming back, auto sales are coming back, the wealth effect that you're getting with the economy -- with the stock market is -- i think the upscale retailers, as we talk about the are winners, i think the upscale retailers are probably doing best and that could be a nordstrom. it could be a macy's. it could be a costco. >> okay. steve, good to see you. of durbin capital. where do you go in the retail space? do you think the consumer is coming back? >> consumer is relentless. it's always something. it's weather, it's gas prices. but in the meantime, there are some chains that continue to take share, whether or not the pie is growing. and that's where i would want to focus. i've been bullish on home depot and i've started to shift into lowe's. i think what's happening there continues throughout the course of the year. if there's a hiccup, as our guest just mentioned, that's probably an opportunity more than a signal something's changing. >> now, you're bearish the market, dan. so is there a single retailer out there that you actually like? >> well, i don't like home depot

for a lot of the reasons that josh just -- that we just did our street fight on. i think it's kind of overdone here. and i think it discounts a lot of the recovery. but i would say -- and i hate high-end retail. just look at coach, tiffany, kors, they're telling you there's problems there. so to me i think tj max makes the most sense on a valuation basis. there's some constructive things going on there. >> coming up next on "fast," cnbc's jane wells tackles the stories make headlines out west. jane, what have you got? >> melissa, han solo or ben affleck? who would you rather? make your choice after the break. at farmers, we make you smarter about insurance.

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from mobile devices to medical marijuana we've got you covered in the west coast wrap. jane wells joins us from the best coast. jane? >> melissa, gambling on your mobile device one step closer to reality. glue mobile has launched its first gaming to money product. it includes elements of its famous samurai versus zombies defense. i'm betting on the zombies. glu shares shot up over 16% today while melissa, its much larger rival zynga saw shares fall. >> zynga is one where half their market share is in cash. they had a pretty successful for a week ipo. they're sitting here. yahoo, there's been takeover speculation. this is one if you want to play and you're long and you know where you're stopped out, down 3 1/2 dollars or so, you can

sell puts on this one at a level where their cash is and generate some yield to that. >> jane? >> all right. disney's off to see the wizard with the number one film. bob iger on "closing bell" addressed attempts to separate the ceo and chairman positions. >> i think this is essentially a cause searching for a problem. the walt disney company has been a great performer for now quite a long period of time, good solid seven years. we do not have any governance issues. we have a board that is very independent. fiercely so as a matter of fact. >> here's what i care about. disney's also talking to harrison ford, carrie fisher, and mark ham ill about returning to "star wars." but nothing's definite. mels arks perhaissa melissa, perhaps han seoulo once again, quote, expects to be well paid. he's in if for money. >> i had a thing for carrie fisher. i never saw "star wars," by the way. now i love jane. but in terms of -- this stock, we've loved this stock for a long time. as it moves to the higher teens in terms of forward multiple,

it's probably getting a little ahead of itself. if you look over the last couple of years, over this straight line hire, we have seen pullbacks. i think that's what you've got to wait for now. >> all right, guy. feel the force. finally, should ben affleck fear the ayatollah? >> you're worried about the ayatollah? try the wga. >> iran is threatening to sue producers like affleck who made best picture winner "argo," saying the film misrepresents the country. strangely, melissa, the mullahs have taken no action against the shahs of sunset, which really is a disgrace. >> yeah, really. get their priorities straight. jane, good to see you. >> you bet. >> jane wells. coming up next, the tweets lighting up the "fast money" twitter feed. we'll trade some of them live, next. [ kitt ] you know what's impressive? a talking car. but i'll tell you what impresses me. a talking train. this ge locomotive can tell you exactly where it is, what it's carrying, while using less fuel. delivering whatever the world needs, when it needs it.

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welcome back. you tweeted, we traded. let's get to some of the tweets you sent in to the "fast money" crew today. this one's for guy. is the recent uptick in teva pointing to the next celgene? >> that's a good site, by the way. i don't know if it's the next celgene. celgene's a monster. with that said teva plays a nice dividend. nice balance sheet. it's been a monster stock. it's hard to shoot against this

one. i like them both, you like celgene more but nothing wrong with teva here either. >> this one's for dan. with the recent run in blackberry is it time to think about selling or should i hold it? >> well, interestingly enough, these guys have the z-10 coming out in north america. the reviews have been, you know, positive but the sell-through has been very mixed in canada and the uk. to me it's a that has a third of their market cap in cash. they have no debt. and they placed all their eggs in one basket. also back to our earlier discussion about short interest, 33% of the flow is short. so it's prone to squeezes. we saw it rallied 15% yesterday. okay? so to me i think you have to be careful here. i think if this bing is back toward 10, 11, 12, i think the sum of the parts is worth more more. i think the high teens you want to get away from it. >> what's the bottom line here for the poor guy? >> are you long it? >> hold them or fold them? >> i'm folding. i think the phone's going to be a disaster. i think this company's got some challenge years ahead of it. nokia. >> so take the gains. >> you have gains?

>> karen. chubb on your "fast money" recommendation. i tried. hold or fold? >> on chubb? it's a great company. you can split the difference, sell some, hold on to the rest. >> all right. we got your final trade coming up next. stay tuned. ♪ ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of long weekends and longer retirements. ♪ ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪