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life from the nasdaq site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. here is the following tonight. financial fitness. our traders tell you which banks are a buy after the fed's latest round of reviews. samsung's stand, making the biggest move yet to take on apple. with just hours to go until the review, find fought the new galaxy has what it takes to

truly be a game-changer. and bull psychology. the street's most bullish strategist reveals why he think it's time to go long or go home. first, some breaking news. head back to headquarters and kate kelly. kate? >> reporter: thank you so much, melissa. after a nine-month investigation, the senate permanent subcommittee on investigations has come out swinging against both jpmorgan and the derivatives industry broadly, saying that the bank amped up risky positions in its cheap investment office, had a paucity of risk and financial controls, and that it dodged regulators, leading to a slew of misstatements to both investors and the office of the controller of the currency, among other parties, before of course jpmorgan ultimately swallowed about $6 billion in losses as part of its now infamous london whale trade last year. in a briefing with reporters earlier today, senator carl levin took to tax both jpmorgan and the derivatives industry in which the bank is a huge player, arguing that the systemic risks are significant and need to be

addressed through a tough implementation of the volcker rule. which are not regulated properly for the economy. he also said there is a lot of evidence that jpmorgan may be too big to manage. whether or not markets were manipulated or executives actually lied to the public, levin and his staff wouldn't opine, but they did leave the door open to further government litigation or investigation based on arguments they have uncovered in the case of this probe. of course, in an all-day hearing tomorrow, we'll be getting some testimony for the first time from ina drew who ran the office that handled these trades, as well as doug bronstein who the senate subcommittee accuses of misleading. jpmorgan issued its own report in february highlighting some of the very same missteps, and ina drew and others involved in them have left the bank. but the bank in a statement is defending its handling of the situation, saying while we've repeatedly acknowledged our mistakes, our senior management

acted in good faith and never had intent to mislead anyone. i'll be bringing to it you live from capitol hill. >> all right. thank you very much for that. kate kelly. meantime we where watching jpmorgan as well as the other financials in the after-hours trading. the bank's capital review results just coming in and moving some of the stocks in the after-hour session. take a look at this. jpmorgan shares down by 2%. keep in mind this is off of hitting a 52-week high during the regular trading session. goldman sachs and bb and t also moving lower at this hour. jpmorgan chase and goldman sachs receiving conditional approval. let's get to kayla tausche who can break down the results for us. kayla? >> reporter: the fed announced the results of the capital plans this afternoon, plans from allied financial and bb and t were rejected. that's why you saw bb and t shares down to heavily. american express was asked to resubmit its plan. it passed the second time. we just saw an announcement from the company that equated to a $4 billion buyback of common shares and a dividend hike of 15%. on the big bank front, wells fargo is increasing dividend to

30 cents a share and the fed increased a buyback. citigroup announced a program in line with its disclosure last week, $1.2 billion buyback. jpmorgan also interestingly just announced a $6 billion buyback. that's a fraction of last year's $15 billion program. but the bank will also raise its dividend in the second quarter to 38 cents. as you mentioned, jpmorgan and goldman sachs saw the fed conditionally approve the amounts of capital distribution. they approved the amounts, but interestingly, the banks must improve their capital planning processes by the end of the third quarter. a senior fed official telling me the programs could be halted if the banks don't significantly approve those processes by the time. the biggest surprise, though, bank of america, a $5 billion buyback of common stock, and the bank said it could redeem up to $5.5 billion of preferred shares. if you take a look at bank of america's stock, it's up better than 4%. that's largely because of all of the bank, bank of america was trading at a fraction of book

value. so the increase or the buyback of shares will actually have the greatest impact on that stock price there. the rally in financials has allergically been due to the expectation that the banks would return capital. we're definitely see them moving on the back of it too. >> jpmorgan has announced what it's going to do with its dividend and buyback. but when the third quarter comes along, if it does not for any reason meet those conditions said out by the fed, then they may not be proceeding with those plans? >> that's correct. and i should correct something that i said earlier. goldman sachs and jpmorgan, well, we haven't gotten an announcement from goldman. those banks will be able to go ahead and start buying back shares and start increasing their dividend ahead of that deadline. but if in fact what they submit to the fed as improvements to their capital planning processes don't meet muster, then they could have to halt those programs. >> all right. kayla, thanks for that. keep us posted with any other developments. kayla tausche back at headquarters. okay, karen, you're at jpmorgan shareholder. >> right. >> what do you make of all this? >> i think it's actually all pretty good. to me the most important part was the dividend raise, which was very significant.

and if you think a lot of investors like this for yield, this is a very decent yield here at that 3846 cent run rate, which i believe they will do absolutely they need to do to get the approval that they need to continue that later in the year. so i know it's down a little bit on kate kelly's comments, but i'm happy to own it here. at 50 bucks, the yield is over three. and not executive on pe. same bank of america. happy to own that as well. >> yeah. keep in mind too jpmorgan had a 52-week high. that pullback is very high. >> that's one of the thing you have to look at trading wise here. since december, all these stocks have run a whole bunch in anticipation of this. so you can easily see us sell the news tomorrow, and a couple of weeks of underperformance here. >> yeah, i think that is the case, because last week we had that event where everyone bought these names into the event. this is a closure event. but i think what is interesting is the stress test about zeroing out those derivatives exposure. eu does that we don't do it. i think you're going to hear

that conversation get extended. >> see, i don't think the liquidity of these banks has been in question. to me it's their ability to make money going forward in the environment we're about to be in. but blackstone for whatever reason seems somewhat impervious to that. they're sort of outside this realm. look at the way the stock performed today. sold off a little bit at the end of the day. but blackstone has been a monster the last six months. just from where i look at it, bx to me is the best out of all these things. >> in terms of using capital, maybe buybacks aren't the best thing at this point given the run. maybe you want as a shareholder to be repaid a dividend instead if you had to choose one or the other. >> oh, i personal prefer buybacks because i would rather they capture that earning stream for the shareholders that don't sell into the buyback. for bank of america, also for jpmorgan. >> if you look at the way bank of america is trading, the market is telling you that they much prefer a buyback. i know there are some issues with bank of america. but still, most investors would prefer that buyback. >> okay. well, let's get to the overall markets. and of course the traders. the dow makes it ten winnings

sessions on the row and the s&p inching closer to a record high. what is your top trade of the day? let's go around the horn. bk? >> let's start with me. the euro the top trade of the day. a couple of events coming up. tomorrow the italian parliament meets. they're either going to form a government where the euro will rally, or they're not going to form a government and the euro gets closer to becoming the new deutsche mark. >> micron. i bought it yesterday. it wasn't on the show, so it's the trade of the show today. but still has more room to go. price targets been slapped on it around $13. >> karen, you have a name we rarely talk about. >> yell, colfax, which is an industrial company that has had such a nice run. valuations getting up there. we had to sell some of that. i put on some mdy mid kaput spreads just to try to pro some into this run we've had. >> hey, mel. last night some donnybrook. did you see it? >> donnybrook. of course i saw it.

>> what is a donnybrook? i really don't know. i should. >> it's a financial term. it means a street fight. and i agree with most of what bk says. truth be told he is probably going to end up right. but oracle had a great day today. so orcl. >> like rubbing salt in the wound of bk. >> that's not why i did it. come on. >> it was one of those with all due respect. >> he won, and the stock is up today. the tape is the ultimate judge. >> can we just spend a moment to talk about the markets and how they just won't quit? i mean here we are, right, the dow, yet another record close. streak of gains we haven't seen since 1997, and it is an infuriating rally for a lot of investors out there because they haven't been in this thing. >> carl talks about it every morning. we hear jim speaks about it as well. we've talked about it. again, when markets stay at -- i've said it a thousand times. i'll say it again. market doesn't give you long

time to buy the bottom or sell the top, which means in my definition, in my world, we haven't made a top yet. i think you're waiting for that day where the market exhausts itself to the upside, spends the rest of the afternoon selling off. you almost saw it last friday. you didn't. maybe you'll see it tomorrow. i don't know. i think you'll know it when you see it, and you haven't seen it yet. >> what is the take on the floor about this rally? >> when you speak to clients, it's exactly what you just said. how long are you in this market? i want to be longer, but i don't get a chance to buy it on a big enough dip. they're not happy with the dips that we've had. so we're not going to get that dip unless you see a europe blow up, or a macro blowup. but we could be looking at this dip after we get over 1600. >> so you're saying hold your nose and buy at this point it sounds like? >> i think we've all done that on this desk. i would have never paid up for google a year ago the way i paid up for hit the year. i would have never paid up for micron. i'm trading a different strategy. >> but why are people continuing to pay up for dividend payers or utilities and not paying up for technology, maybe not a google, but larger technology trading at

a discount to the overall market? >> or look at caterpillar today. the global economy is as strong as the stock market in general is suggesting, stocks like caterpillar should be soaring. copper should be soaring. it's not. so those are warning signs. but -- >> i don't think they're saying that the strength of the global economy. i think they're saying there is strength in different pockets of our economy. and our economy -- >> the s&p 500. >> yes, but we're shoving money into the equity market, but it's not a blanket anymore. it used to be up and down. >> well, that's not a great sign for the bull market. >> no, it's not a great sign. but i think you have a little more run in this market. it's going to be apparent. the only thing that sold this market off twice has been euro. >> right. >> in the last month, month and a half. whenever we've seen the market backtrack, what has it been? europe on both occasions. >> external. >> exactly. >> and italy over the next week trying to perform a government. >> right. ibm, disney, johnson johnson & johnson, we'll get to those trades a little later on in the

show. meantime, coming up next, does treasury secretary jack lew think a stronger dollar is what is best for america? we have details from steve le e liesman's interview. and trader bk. much more "fast" straight ahead. [ male announcer ] with citibank it's easy for jay

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welcome back to welcome back to "fast money." the s&p 500 may be just two points away from its record closing high, but one trader says this rally may be derailed. let's good to bk. no surprise, bk, you're the bear on this thing. >> it's at the cleaners, being dusted off i'm not quite ready to be sharp short in this market. here is my working hypothesis. we're at the end of a speculative phase here. a speculative phase in markets tend to get disconnected from fundamentals. and if you look at -- i look at pmi. that's probably one of the best leading indicators out there. that tends to peak before the s&p does. so, you know, we're looking at a pmi that has peaked months and months ago. i know it's getting better, but it's peaked months and months ago. now i look back at the market here, and this is more of a

granular picture on the chart here, since november, this is s&p points, 100 point s&p rally. a little bit of a correction, then 130 point s&p rally. now here we are. if we go another 100 points, you get to about 1585 roughly. >> yeah. >> if we go 130 points, you get to 1600. so that's where the target comes in. that also happens to be the peak of the last five years. the last three peaks were right around 1585, 1600. >> but that sounds like a pretty good return. even if you put money here and think that the return could be up to not even 1600, that's not bad, right? i don't take it. >> right. and that's why i'm not willing to be short yet, because i wouldn't want to get my face ripped off. if i'm right about this, the final phase will probably be a parabolic move up where everybody is exhausted. guy's talked about that. you end up that's where you know you'll have that day where you have a reversal day, and we'll all talk it on the desk. >> guy? you like his hypothesis? >> we're simpatico. >> in the same camp, known as

bear camp. >> donnybrook. didn't know what that is. go figure. the market continues to want to go higher. it shows no reason to celebrate now. i think the reason will be evident when you have that day. we haven't had that day yet. i believe it's coming. we haven't seen it. >> grasso, what do you make of bk's analysis? >> i like it. everyone has been anticipating this pullback. butting you're going to see that pullback around 167, 16 1/4 where everyone is focused on 1576, we'll probably blow that right through and that will confuse everybody further. >> let's get to our big calls of the day. we got a lot of big upgrades and downgrades. the street taking sides on some of the big names like jcpenney and apple. e bay also getting a boost. upgrading coca-cola to a buy. but it wasn't all upgrades today. amazon got downgraded at jpmorgan. let's get some of the traders takes and some telephone big calls that really did move some of the stocks interestingly, the jcpenney. >> i was not a believer in the jcpenney call.

we're short jcpenney and short the bonds. i want to just show you what has been happening to the bonds. this is a chart that we did just to show you. macy's bonds, jcp bonds, they were very, very similar in the capital structure, same size offering, around same coupon signaturing. look what has happened between the two in terms of yield. this is indicative of how troubled the jcpenney capital structure is starting to feel to the bondholders. one other interesting thing that happened today. target announced two small acquisitions in the home housewares space. >> interesting. >> they bought chefs from private equity firm that has names like le crueset and kitchen aid. these are really good names. they're really beefing up their home housewares business. this is a potentially a problem for squajcp. >> i read the downgrade by

jpmorgan. it sounds to me they're still bullish. they have amazon, the amazon web services. so there is a bunch of things to still be bullish about. there is a lot of omp turner. that's why i'm not in the name. google, they're extremely competitive in all the space. >> let's get to the newly appointed treasury secretary jack lew who is making his first trip in office to a seem manslaughter operating facility. steve liesman sat down with the secretary about an hour ago. steve, what is the latest? >> melissa, thanks very much. i'm here at georgia 400 siemans plant. some of his ideas about trying to promote u.s. exports. i began asking him about whether or not the stock market levels hitting new highs every day, whether that represented a bubble that he was worried about. >> the analysis i've seen doesn't give me reason to be worried right now.

i think one of the lessons we learned from 2008/2009 is that even when things are not a problem, we always have to ask those questions. we need to make sure that we have the transparency to see what is going on in firms and markets. we need to have the regulatory tools to deal with problems as they develop. >> i also asked the treasury secretary about fannie and freddie and about what plans he had for them. he said they are working on them, did not reveal any new plans, but did suggest, as we'll hear in the next hans, that there may be some new stuff that could help underwater homeowners whose mortgages are worth more than the value of their home. >> we'll have more to say about it in the future. but i think the first order of business is while we have interest rates in the very attractive place they are now, as the president said over and over again, american families could lower their bills by $3,000 if they refinance. it's good for the families. it's good for the my. it creates jobs. there is no reason not to do it. >> a couple more things, guys. he said that on the

sequestration issue, he thought -- he thinks he is hearing more sober minds and sensible people talking. he think there's has been some movement on both sides. and seems somewhat optimistic about a deal. and of course i asked him about the dollar. and he said that he supports the strong dollar policy. so melissa, to the extent you were worried about that. >> right. >> you don't have to worry about that. >> i can rest easy. >> the treasure secretary supports the strong dollar. >> the continuation of the policy. that's really good to know, because that has always worked out in the past. steve liesman, thank you. >> thanks. >> we're talking about the use of with all due respect before. and in that category do, we care about what the treasury secretary thinks about whether or not we're overvalued in the stock market? >> not so much. and i'm not sure what you would expect him to say. >> true. it's a bubble. >> it's the greatest bubble of all time. get out. of course he is going to say it's not a bubble. of course he is going to say everything is great. >> the strong dollar policy is the one. >> that's -- he still laughing right now. i bet he is laughing off camera, laughing all the way home to new

york. coming up next, samsung releases its new galaxy smartphone mod until less that won the hours. what will it mean to samsung and its competitors? and wall street's most bullish strategist tells us why he is standing firm. more "fast" straight ahead. >> >> "fast money" means trading. >> the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. >> it's idea generation. it's all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. the world has changed, our show has evolved. i am guy adami. i am "fast money." i at pete najarian. i am "fast money." >> are you "fast money"? go to the nbcuniversal store and order your "fast money" tee. run with the big dogs. , we understand. our financial advice is geared specifically to current and former military members and their families. life brings obstacles. usaa brings retirement advice.

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for current and former military members and their families. get advice from the people who share your values. for our free usaa retirement guide, call 877-242-usaa. welcome back to welcome back to "fast money." i'm mary thompson with some breaking news about morgan stanley. the federal reserve approving the company's request to buy the remaining 35% of the global wealth management venture it has with citi for $4.7 billion. of course, it's a question of when it will happen. now ceo james gorman is making it clear this is what he wanted. a source close to the company saying right now timing of the

remaining purchase or the purchase of the remaining stake is uncertain because additional regulatory approvals are needed. back to you. >> all right, thank you very much, mary thompson. i want to check in with kayla tausche. we are seeing jpmorgan shares trade below 50. bank of america right now if it opened for trade would be at a new 52-week high. >> that's right. jpmorgan is volatile a little bit after hours after some unclear reports from the fed. capital distribution of $6 billion is what the company announced in the form of a buyback. it will also increase its dividend in the second quarter to 38 cents. that distribution was approved by the fed conditionally. the condition that it significantly revises its capital planning processes. but a source tells cnbc that what needs to be improved is the bank's internal modeling, not risk management. that's important for investors who are watching. of course, the stock is also moving on the back of the senate committee report that faults jpmorgan management for misleading investors allegedly on the become of that london whale trading glitch. on the other side of the map, though we have to look at bank

of america. the stock is jumping after hours. now up nearly 4 1/2% on the back of its announcement that it will buy back $5 billion in shares, and it will also redeem up to $5.5 billion in preferred securities. this is unexpected. a lot of analysts expected bank of america to keep its capital platform the same. potentially a slight increase in the dividend. we didn't see the dividend increase, but we did see the buyback. note because b of a had been trading well below book value, that that's why you're seeing the stock jump on the back of this buyback. it will be very impactful once they start doing it. >> kay lab, jpmorgan has to improve modeling doesn't doesn't have to do with the risk management? financial modeling over overall? what does that mean? >> there has been some disparity between how the banks carried out their internal stress test and the fed carried out its stress test. of course the fed is keeping the kimono close as to what severe

tail events market shock it's putting these banks under in its stress test. apparently there were a few where jpmorgan had not prepared for internally. there was a bit of discrepancy between what the federal reserve had required and what jpmorgan as well as goldman sachs were prepared for on that side. we haven't talked to sources about what exactly goldman's issue was. we do know their issues were different here, but they both have to revise those processes by the end of q 3. >> cale lab, thank you. again, bank of america right newt 52-week highs in the after-hours session. it's almost here. in just about an hour, samsung will reveal its much hyped new galaxy s4 here new york city. jon for jon fortt joins us with a preview. >> an hour and a half. thanks to plentiful leaks, the cat is halfway out of the bag. the phone will be able to sense your fingers within an inch of the screen. a way to bringing off preview information without tabbing. the phone looks a lot like the

s3, big, gorgeous and much brighter screen. it can pause video when you turn away. three rather mundane things probably more important than the features here. one can samsung use the s4 to create a halo effect, boosting its tablet and tv businesses? that's something apple has been able to do with the iphone and ipad. two, can samsung manufacture and deliver these globally better than they did with the s3? production glitches that slowed last year's u.s. launch were an issue. samsung ideally gets this out in volume before the launch buzz for the next iphone. and then, thee, what will apple do. an early spring preview of ois 7? the longer samsung has the hot new phone headlines to itself, the bigger the potential marketing benefit, guys. >> jon fortt, thanks for that. for more on what is at stake for samsung, as well as apple and the rest of the smartphone makers, let's bring in brian mario andretti shall. great to see you.

>> thanks. >> will this impact your view of whether or not an occasional actually meet its current quarter next quarter guidance? >> i don't think tonight is going to impact the near-term for apple. but i think the market is big enough to support multiple vendors. obviously cell phone market is a two billion unit market. and less than half of that is smartphones today. so we've got obviously a ramping mix of the industry to smart phones. so i think samsung, as well as apple, will continue to do well. i think the glass economy s4 will probably set the new gold standard, if you will, with respect to the hardware design of a smartphone. i think it's going to be pretty stunning, but i don't think it's going to change the outlook for apple. >> i guess the context is what you're expecting an toll post in the current quarter next quarter in relation to the street. i think a lot of analysts out there are now revisiting price targets and estimates because it might be sucking the oxygen. the ecosystem can support lat of smart phones, but maybe at the margins impact apple sales. >> that's a good point.

unfortunately, our numbers are still below current consensus estimates. so it's probably not a good thing. numbers probably have to come down a little bit here. i don't think it's material. but at the end of the day, with the stock having declined, call it $300 almost over the past four or five months, you know, i think a lot of that negativity is factored in here. but to your point, if numbers are still coming down, it's probably difficult to get in front of the stock in a material fashion. >> hey, brian, brian kelly. i'm curious. the one thing that samsung has not been able to replicate from apple is the apple ecosystem. i have an iphone. once i'm on it, i'm locked in. i think the samsung galaxy looks great, but i'm not sure i want to get it is. there anything in this phone that could break the lock that apple has on its users? >> not really. it's obviously going to be built on android jelly bean 4.2. so it's the latest version. at the end of the day i think it will be a great hardware platform, but ultimately, it's obviously playing second fiddle

to apple's ios. the seamless integration of the television most likely, apple tv today, tablets, laptops, pcs, phoneses, et cetera, it's going to be difficult for samsung to replicate that. >> all right, brian, thanks for joining. always good to see you. brian marshall. blackberry, don't see huge upside in the name. what did you see today? >> it was interesting. yesterday, of course, on the news of a million phone order, there was a lot of activity in the stock and the options. some people were buying some speculative calls. but today i think they were reversing course on that. we saw a lot of the same traders i think exiting the trades. and then we saw an opening sell of the march 15 1/2 calls. selling for an average price of 40 cents, 2 1/2% of the stock price. basically, you're betting the stock won't go above 15.5. so i think they thought whatever pop it got, that is as good as

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welcome back to welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq market site in new york's times square. let's get a quick market flash with josh lipton on a name moving after hours. hey there, josh. >> check out aero postal. the outlook, disappointing. forecasting a loss for the current quarter. the street had been looking for a profit here. the ceo saying the company expects a challenging first quarter, margin pressures from holiday carry over inventory. and the impact of a weak macroeconomic environment. he said. melissa, back to you. >> aeropostale, any love for that name? >> no love. >> hatred? >> apathy, which is the worth of all maybe. >> it seems having no management team, at least that's the people

i speak with that traffic in the name. and until it gets one, you're not going to see any love, as you said. the bull run charging ahead. the dow having its largest running streak in 17 years. the s&p posting its second highest close ever. what will push into it record territory at this point? let's dive into psyche of the biggest bull on the street. tony dwyer. tony, great to see you. >> great to be here, melissa. >> s&p at 1650. that's why you're one of the biggest bulls out there. you have a lot of stats in your portfolio strategy note which say that history is on our side at this point. >> at the end of the day, i've kind of been annoyingly bullish for almost four years. the reason is because the fundamental backdrop has been the same. you have low core inflation. you have historically accommodative central bank. easing lending standards because you have a steep yield curve, increased demand and good corporate profits. until those factors change, it's hard for me to say you're going get out, especially when you're at 14 times earnings.

sorry to drone on, but in a sub-par environment, you have historically traded at 19 times earnings. so i'm using a 15 multiple on a blow consensus $110 in earnings, and i'm the biggest bull. i think i'm far too conservative. i had most of my upside in the front half. >> if you're at 1650, you're probably light. >> yeah. >> at some point you're probably going to have to jack that up considerably, number one. i would push back and say eps, okay, but they've gotten it with productivity gains that have been historic. >> but that's the exciting part of the cycle. we're in an economic cycle where you haven't even gotten the margin -- i don't want to say expansion. that there will be a little bit of margin expansion, because the top line goes up more than the cost basis. now here is the best pushback i get when i visit our institutional accounts is margins are at peak. any time they have been this high, they're going to go down. and that is correct. the only thing that does make them go down, however, a recession. companies never raise their costs more than they do their

revenue assumptions. if you guys walked in and talked to a cfo and he said jeez, our revenue is going to be up 4% so, we're going to raise cost. you'd look at him like he has ten heads. they cannot cut costs as fast as revenue is dropping statistically. >> when you came out of the blocks, you said you're going to stay bullish until something changes. the headline question is, when the fed takes his foot off the gas, that's incredibly important for you. do you change then? >> steve, in the middle part of this year, one of the things that made us different, i thought the vix was going to 10. it does very cycle. i also thought the market would go up a lot. but i pulled into it the front half to year because of that. we're going to get into a period where the market will not be sure how the economy will react when the fed takes its foot off the pedal. frankly, it won't matter. that transition in psychology i think will cause a correction in the middle of the year, and then

the game is really on. then you get the multiple expansion. then you go to 18, 19 times earnings. you're still in an easing lending environment so you get to somewhere north of 120 earnings. >> in this rally to 1650, what sectors do you want to be in? the ones trading at a relative discount like technology and materials and industrials? >> we're long technology. we're overweight technology and the officials and to a little bit lesser degree, the industrials. but who what karen said on aeropostal e, we downgraded the consumer discretionary space. that sector is the only sector that acts the same in every cycle. it transitions to supere i don't to flat negative performance when real rates turn. so real feds fund rate have started to trend higher. and a as a result of, that we downgraded the sector to market weight last week. >> you own -- >> i do. i own a fair amount. i sort of think if the employment picture improves, which i think it will, that's a

more important factor, i think. >> just historically, i'm not saying it's going to go down, because obviously, i'm pretty bullish and everything is correlated. but the relative performance peaks when interest rates bottom on a real fed funds rate basis. so, you know, i think you're going to be right, but i think there just may be other out performance areas ahead. >> tony, good to see you. >> thanks for inviting me. coming up next, a street fight rematch. guy and bk go head to head over a major oil company. it's share pricing a rebound over the past few months. guy come out on top again? you decide when "fast money" comes back. [ kitt ] you know what's impressive? a talking car. but i'll tell you what impresses me. a talking train. this ge locomotive can tell you exactly where it is, what it's carrying, while using less fuel.

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shares of conocophillips climbing since mid-november, but it's lost about a quarter of share price over the past year. some believe new headwinds are ahead. the stock fuelling a street fight rematch. guy, again the bull. he is trying to defend his title against bk. bk of course the bear. what else would he be? guy, go. >> thanks for having me here, mel. so last april, conocophillips, they spun off psx, which you can say what you watt about that, whether it was good or not. psx has been a monster. they sold one of their refineries to delta, the airline. and the stock since then hasn't

recovered. all the names face the same problem, decreasing reserves. they're going to spend $35 billion over the next five years, and it's simply a bet whether they're going to be able to five more reserves or not. if the prices go higher, their stock will go higher. it's lagged -- chevron made an all-time high today where conocophillips still lags. if they catch up to the canadian oil sands, and i think they can, and that's the bet, this stock should go much higher than current levels. >> yes, perhaps it could go higher if they find oil, and, you know i guess jed clampett might be the company as well. with the refineries space, the emp space, is there is plenty of oil. there is tons of oil out there. not only, that gasoline demand is decreasing. the refiners in this whole space is now hitting what people are calling the blend wall where you have to blend certain amount of ethanol into your gasoline. but there is not -- you don't need as much ethanol as being produced. so you have ethanol credits going through the roof.

the crack spreads going through the roof. but that's not necessarily indicative of good things for this particular sector. >> can i change my posture -- no i'm kidding. >> don't you want to rebut anything that bk has to say? >> his points are all valid, and they make a lot of sense. one of the reasons we were talking about the refiners last night, exactly to bk's point. my point is it's a bet. you think they're going to make it or not make it. i think there is a very good chance that this $35 billion and $2.5 billion they're spending in alaska is going to pay dividends. if you don't, then you sell the stock. >> mike, what do you say? >> on the reserve issue here, if you're talking about reserves, you also ought to be looking at the price of oil which has been flat. this sort of supports bk's attitude. i don't see why you're chasing this stock when you're making a bet on how much oil they're going to have and how much that oil is worth. among the major integrated oils, exxon and chevron are better managed. i would prefer chevron.

>> i'm going with bks on this only this. >> two against guy. >> i want to be in the emp. their cog, eqt, a bunch of other names. >> the tide is turning against you, against you. >> round three. >> the luck of the irish. >> guy has 1.2 million twitter followers. he will not lose. >> we do want you to tweet us @cnbcfastmoney. we'll have results at the end of the show. let's play a little good, bad and ugly. we haven't done that in a while. >> who is it? >> steve was looking for upside in the nat gas name that had already risen more than 400% since the bottom. take a listen. >> cheniere energy. the ceo is going to be on with cramer later on tonight. i have anything to to believe he is going to be anything less than bullish. >> nice call. cheniere energy is up another 29% since the call. what do you do with it?

>> i'm still holding it. i think there is still more room to run. i saw an upgrade i don't know it if it was yesterday or today, but i think lng is the place to be. >> a few weeks after that good cheniere trade, steve was looking at the printing space. here is what he said. >> i got to tell you, a revolutionary product. i think it's got a huge, huge potential. i'm there. should be there, i should say. i love the product. >> huge. shares of 3d systems have dropped about 26% since the call. the stock fell about 5%. today there is some news of an insider, somebody sold a bunch of shares, although he is in the 70s. >> there is always a sect of the investing community that thinks this company is a sham. and they think 3d is a sham there are other ways to play it there is stratsist as well. i think there is a future here. maybe 3d not at the time. >> so it's a complete reversal. >> what what do you want me to

say, buy more and kill somebody here? if there is doubts in this company. by the way, i always put commit numbers on my stocks. you know. you must have done something to that when you didn't have time to put an exit strategy. >> oh, now you're blaming me for your bad trade. all right. i'll take the blame. jeez. >> the good, the malicious fault or the early. >> what is the name of the segment? [ laughter ] >> look at that. >> i got to tell you. >> nice jerry seinfeld jeans, grasso. >> waa, waaa. >> coming up next, his find out which of your tweets made today's cut. we'll trade them live on "fast money," straight ahead. hing us that you can't create the future... by clinging to the past. and with that: you're history. instead of looking behind... delta is looking beyond. 80 thousand of us investing billions... in everything from the best experiences below...

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the dollar the dollar dropping today after a massive rally to seven-month highs. so is the dollar's run finally done? let's find out from todd gordon, founder of trading analysis.com. todd, what do you say? >> i was long dollars all day. i had kind of a rough day. i'm still long dollars. i think the trade and the story is still intact. i feel like the sell-off we saw in the fx markets where the dollar was kind of the weaker currencies like aussie and sterling to the upside. i want to stick with the long

dollar trade. i want to pair a long dollar up against the yen there is an important vote tonight in japan. it's for the approval of the upper house of the two bank of japan governors who are appointed by abe. those guys are going to come in and really try to weak under up the yen. i think the dollar rally against the yen. i would would like to buy it at 96. stop it a little lower, about 95.25. and take profit up to 98, which is actually going to coincide pretty well to bk's level. i saw him doing work earlier in the show. that's going to top out in correspond with the yen. >> in terms of the expectations of the upper house foat vote? >> they need to have approval on the next two guys. these guys are going to come, in be the bank of japan governorship, and then they can get the process approved and begin to start to weaken up this yen and go through with this massive quantitative'sing program that they put forth. >> got it, thanks. you tweet it, we trade it. let's get to the tweets to the

crew today. this is for mycowould. you be selling puts or would you sell because coal is a dead man walking? >> okay. well, if i understand you question, sell puts and own stock at the same time. these are both bullish bets. this is what we call a texas hedge. i actually would have to say no, i would not do that. you might consider if you own these stocks owning -- you would probably sell calls against it. because i do think these are dead men walking. one quick point also, there is more depth than equity in walters and cliffs. so that imemployed volatility, all that premium you see, it might look richer than it was. >> that look was golden. with all due respect. no offense. >> karen, this is for you. would you still hold it, or would you fold it? >> they've done a great job turning around their business. the stock's run up a lot. tomorrow is kate spade investor day, which is their jewel right now. i think it's run up in

anticipation of that we are taking some off. we have calls that will go away tomorrow. our stock will be assigned with it. >> guy? >> anybody starting to like cat at this 88 level, or is the big cat going lower? >> matt knows the answer to this ahead of time. look at credit suisse, just downgraded the mining sector. when stocks don't rally, especially stocks like caterpillar on the tape that we have seen, it's got to be telling you something. we had a little street fight about that the other day. >> we did. we certainly did. >> yeah, we did. >> we did. >> so steve might have a different answer. that's what makes markets. i say don't be playing with this cat, you know what i'm saying? >> i think it's too early to pass judgment on it just yet. it's moved sideways. you'll agree. >> i would agree. >> with the market everything has been thrown at this stock, i think you hold on to it, using 87 stop. how about that? >> i gave you time for your stops. you can't blame me for that one hi, is still going to blame you, melissa. >> thank you. this is for grasso. ten-day moving average across a

30-day on weyerhauser today. do you like the stock as a trade? wy? >> grasso. >> crossed over the ten-day moving average. ten-day moving average is your momentum. use that always as your momentum. i probably wouldn't be in the name, ton to be honest with you. i'm going to do a full reversal of everything i just said. >> surround it. >> just kidding around, steven p. all right. coming up next, we reveal the winner of our street fight rematch. plus we've got your first move tomorrow when we come right back.