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tv   Options Action  CNBC  March 16, 2013 6:00am-6:30am EDT

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welcome back to "the suze orman show." all right. this makes a wrap on "the suze orman show". we're on our 12th year. before we go, there is still one more thing that i want you to know. you know, i had 1-on-one guests to night where david and sheba. now i loved that they came on and they came on with this question and it was such a vital question. they wanted to have a baby, 29 years of age, each of them. but they wanted to know could they afford it? did they have enough money? how many times have i had guests on "the suze orman show" and i say to them, do you really think you should have a baby, i don't think you have the money and they go we will make it work.
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we want to have three or four kids. we'll figure it out somehow. i don't think so. you don't take a gamble like that. you know if you have the money or not. if you don't, so what if you are young and you wait a year or two, you are not going to hurt anything and maybe you can help everything. it's not just about having a baby. if we could always ask that question, i want to buy a home. can i really afford it? i want to buy a new car. do you think i can make the new payment? i'm going to take out a student loan. will my salary be able to pay it back? just work through the numbers, peeps, work through the numbers so you don't make a mistake that maybe you wish you hadn't done. now you know. all right. until next week, there's only one thing i really want you to remember when it comes to your money and it is this, people
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first, then money, then things. now you stay safe. tonight -- cash at last. will apple finally pop with $150 billion in catch? dan nathan says it could happen next week. he'll explain why and tell you how you can profit. plus, talk about being well connected. a way to make money on linkedin, whether the stock goes up, down or nowhere at all. and how would you like to double your money in starbucks in just four months? scott nations with a grande trade. the action begins right now. indeed it does. and live from the nasdaq market site in new york's times square, i'm mandy drury, joined by the traders who are the real stars
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of the show. and, you know what? you can't win them all. the dow's ten-day winning streak comes to an end with a 25-point loss on an expiration friday. the s&p and nasdaq in the red. but hope springs eternal on america's favorite stock, apple. yeah, the tech giant rising over 2% today. and finishing the week in the green. is this stock ready to join the rally at last? let's get in on the money and find out. now, samsung's new phone was deemed a bit of a dud by many, but could the tech giant finally be starting to share some of its massive cash pile with the rest of the world? dan, let's talk apple here. they ready to give it out? >> well, really interesting. all week long, this stock was kept under wraps because of the samsung event last night. they finally had some of the enthusiasm about products that apple used to have. and in a lot of ways, the phone they introduced yesterday looked like one of their s-verve suns of apple's iphone when they do that second year of the phone. so, i think that helped change the sentiment a little bit
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towards apple. and then, you had investors looking for this, you know, this cash distribution plan that needs to be expanded. a lot of reason why people are looking for next week is because, if they thought about the pattern from last year, the company held their shareholder meeting on february 23rd. a lot of anticipation they were going to announce a dividend, a buy-back there, they didn't. on march 19th, 2012, they issued a press release, they held a press conference, issuing their plan to pay a $10 billion share buy back and people are on their heels, they need this company to do it again and they think one year from the day, it could happen next week. >> for the longest time, apple was the buy the rumor, sell the news stock. and now it's actually, you know, it's flipped on its ear because now it's trading on the news that samsung, the real issue, people talk about if they were going to be able to come up with the next product.
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their competitors need to do that, as well. if blackberry fails, samsung fails, then, of course, it's little to attract the apple consumer away from them. that means they might not lose that market share. they have so much cash. the company is so cheap that all you need is that kind of a catalyst, i think, to propel. >> you kind of answered the question as to why possibly next week, in other words, we kind of had an inkling on why the timing. my question is, what about the tax? one of the reasons for why they haven't given back this cash to investors is because they repatriated from overseas and they are going to be whacked by the tax man. >> that's right. unfortunately, a ton of this cash is overseas. now, apple has an embarrassing amount of cash, but there's a reason for that.
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they are going to take a tax hit if they bring it back. one thing. if they give a big special dividend, then, i think you have to say that steve jobs has left the building. he is no longer the sort of visionary that they're trying to play to. they've said that steve jobs era is certainly over and they're going to have to give cash back. i think that apple shot too far to the upside. it's going to shoot too far to the down side. but it's actually not that far off its low. i'm not certain that given that, you know, a dividend is a cash. it doesn't do anything for you. >> there's enough cash that they could give 20 bucks a share in the u.s. would imposing that tax. i think that's -- that's a lot. >> aside from the dividend, there's other things, you know, suggested that maybe they put in a tender back in 2006, microsoft did a massive tender for shares, which puts a floor in the stock in the mean term. if you think this company is fundamentally challenged in the near term, which they may be. it may been issue of decelerating growth. if they put a tender out there, that puts a floor in the stock and shareholders will come back at that level. that's one reason why the stock might have found a bottom in the near term. >> a lot of apple investors are certainly hoping so. so, we have the picture here. dan is bullish, right? buying a calendar call spread. it is tricky, but this is exactly how it works. this is a bullish strategy, where you buy a call and you finance that purchase, you share the same strike to reduce your cost. so, how do you make money? well, you want the stock to fall just below the strike of the
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call that you are short on the first expiration but above the strike of the call that you are long on the second expiration. this requires timing. with that said. what is the trade? >> yeah, timing. listen, i'm not really bullish. this has a ten delta to it. i want this stock to move slightly higher towards where my strikes are, and then this trade makes money because it's on options trade. i'm buying an april/may 460 call calendar, okay? when the stock was 440.50, i sold one of the april 460 calls at $8. that has a 30 delta and i bought one of the may 460 calls for 15 and so, the structure cost me seven bucks. like i said, it's got ten to it. i'm actually picking a stop, you know, 460 is right about the 50-day moving average. it's not touched that level since october of 2012. i think there's a good chance, if they come out and they do something a little bit in line with expectations of investors in the next week or so, i think the stock moves up.
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but i do believe when they report q-2 in may, i think the stock goes lower, i do not want to be there for it. that's why i'm not outrightly long calls. >> this is the kind of options trade, i think, if you are looking at the stock, you think it's starting to find a floor here, at least temporarily, you get to collect some of that near term decay and you're not really making that bet that it's going to start ripping here. i don't think we're at that stage yet. this kind of trade makes a lot of sense, especially if we continue to see persistently low volatility in the markets generally. >> that's right. we like these because they get the math working for you. the thing about this trade and dan makes the point, if it goes sideways, you're going to make money. even if it goes down, you're going to make money. if it goes up to 460, it's as much of a home run this trade can be. >> finally with you, dan? >> if i were to ask these two guys, would you just buy calls for next week's event, you would both say no. and this structure kind of
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solves that problem. >> yeah. >> well, the iphone is a wonderful product, many of you viewers use it, as well. but it still lacks stocks versus options. that, you can only get here. want to buy 100 shares of apple? that sets you $44,000. dan's call calendar risks only 700 bucks. let's move on. well, and that is to facebook. the shares of the social giant had a pretty rough week, down more than 4% and now it is looking for new revenue by taking a page from its biggest rival. julia boorstin joins us from los angeles with the latest on the clash of these two titans. julia? >> well, mandy, sources tell me that facebook is looking for ways to make hashtags more useful and more important. and it makes sense that facebook would try to embrace the format that twitter pioneered. twitter hashtags help marketers target their ads, driving twitter's revenue 90% higher to $550 million this year,
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according to e-marketer. now, facebook users, some of them use hashtags and they are huge on instagram. now facebook is experimenting with making them clickable, to search for related posts with the same ease as searching for tagged photos. when mark zuckerberg announced graph search back in january, he talked about the potential of filtering posts. now, facebook may be taking a page from twitter, with this experimentation, but mandy, both facebook and twitter would really like to recreate the success that google has had with its search ads and that's what this is about. >> indeed. i'm wondering how much, julia, analysts feel this is going to move the needle for the stock? >> well, it's still very early. this is very much an experimentation phase. they know that people like hashtags. they do work. they are seeing what the use cases could be. i think what this really is is a
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small piece of the big story of search. and the idea of facebook segmenting its service. it's not just a massive content that you have to filter through, but they really make it easier for you to filter it. that might be with tags on photos that might be you searched based on music that your friends are listening to, and with this, it's based on the hashtags. >> it looks nicer out there than it does here. julia, thank you. okay, while it's been a tough go for facebook, rival linkedin saw its stock hit an all-time high this week. our next guest says it is the most expensive stock in the history of the world. let's get to the chart to find out why, with the one and only, carter braxton worth. really? >> that's quite an introduction. let's try to define the answer here. this is linkedin since inception. here's the ipo at 120. it opens up and plunges, gets back there, 120, 120. in principle, a stock that has well defined tops that are precise in terms of price but have a lot of authority, almost two years, when you do break out, there is a measuring objective for a move like that.
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let's look at the next chart. what i tried to do here is what the measuring objective is here. these are the rules from the '30s and '40s. the range before the breakout is 60 to 120, or $60. if you add 60 onto the top of 120, you get 180. that's where the stock reached today. we could sell. >> the most expensive stock in the world. this is a company that made 23 cent as share in the last 12 months, trading at 180, what's that? 800 times earnings, 20 times revenues. those are big superlatives. >> not that far off, history of the world. >> up 100% in 52 weeks. i find this thing very hard -- you certainly can't imagine what would propel somebody to buy the shares here. i think it's exceptionally expensive. i agree with carter. very tough to say, okay, here's the way to, but i'm ready to
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play that way. >> but the warning is out there. okay. bearish view here. so, mike is selling a call spread. usually we buy call spreads, so, let's hit the playbook just one more time. this is a bearish strategy. you sell one call and purchase a higher strike call of the same expiration. in this structure, you want the stock to trade below that short strike by expiration. that way, you can keep the profits you took in. above that level, you will lose money. but your losses are capped at the strike of the call you bought. so, one last time on the stock's versus options. want to short linkedin, better have a lot of friends. what's the trade on this? >> all right, well, so, you know, using that 180 level that carter just referred to, i look to sell the may 180 call. i can collect $11.80 for that. shorting stocks carries unlimited risk, so, i'm going to protection myself by buying the higher strike may 190 call. i collect $4.10, 40% of the distance between the strikes. if the stock stays right here, even if it drifts mildly higher, i'm still going to collect that
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premium. if it goes down, i'm going to collect all of it. basically, a max possible gain of $4.10, max risk of just over five bucks. >> dan? >> yeah, to me, like you guys said, you can't short this stock. this is a raging counter trend trade. when you do that, you have to define your risk. you don't want to get into a situation where you risk a bunch to make a little. this one is $4 to $6 and that's about as bad a relationship as i would ever put on this one makes a lot of sense. >> for the record, i'm on linkedin, but don't use it. a lot of people say the same. anyway, let's move on. got a question? send us a tweet @cnbcoptions. we're going to answer it on our web extra, right after the show at optionsaction.cnbc.com. you do want to logon today, because scott has that way to double your money in starbucks. this is what's coming up next -- >> no need to google it, because dan cashed in big time with his bullish bet on yahoo!. so, how can he make even more money? find out, when "options action"
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returns. time for pump up the volume, the names that were heating up the sizzle index this week. this multimedia newspaper company has been printing all the news that's fit to print since the 1800s. and this week, the stock was hot off the press on news that publishers will be added to the company's media platform. so, options traders turned the page, betting that this activity is a sign of the times. who is it? the answer, when "options action" returns. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪
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[ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪
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[ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. where were options traders pumping up the volume this week? "the new york times." at one point, call volume was up 14 times the average daily volume. okay, so, you just heard how "new york times" calls were active. scott, tell us more. >> well, this was a company that a few years ago couldn't monetize its website. now it's on fire. its ricochet platform has attracted other users. on wednesday, we saw a bunch of call volume and big buyers of the 12 strike calls. >> okay.
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it's time for the upside call, where we look back on some of our winning trades and see if there's a way to make even more money. a couple of weeks back, dan made a bullish bet on yahoo!. now, the stock has since rallied more than 10%. but dan's made much more and this is how. on "options action," it's the motto we live by. risk less so we can make more. that's just what dan did with yahoo!. he thought shares of the online media giant were ready to run. >> the stock could be really cheap. >> but buying the stock? 100 shares cost almost $2,000. so, to spend less, dan bought the july 20 strike call for $1.25. to make money, he needs yahoo! shares to rise above the strike of that call bill more than the $1.25 he spent or above $21.25 by july expiration. but ponying up $1.25? come on, we can do better than that. so, to spend less, dan sold the july 22 strike call for 60 cents.
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now, between the $1.25 he spent buying that lowest strike call and the 60 cents he collected by selling that higher strike call, dan has reduced the total cost of his trade to just 65 cents. now, to make money, dan just needs yahoo! to rise above the $20 strike price by more than that 65 cents or above $20.65 by july expiration. but there is a trade-off. by selling that call, dan has kept his profits to the strike of the call that he bought and the strike of the call that he sold. hold on. because paying 65 cents for a trade still ain't cheap enough for this guy. so, to spend even less, dan then sold the 18 strike put for 65 cents. now, between the $1.25 he spent by buying the call, the 60 cents he collected by selling that call. and the 65 cents he collected by selling that other put, dan managed to put on the trade for free. now, dan seeps profits if yahoo! takes even a penny above the $20 strike price of the call that he bought.
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>> that's really inspired a lot of terrific people to sign on. >> it sure did, marissa meyer. but keep in mind, there is a trade-off. because he sold that put, dan is obligated to buy the stock for 18 bucks, even if it falls well below that level. it's all good, though, because since the time of the trade, yahoo! shares have added 12%, making this trade a winner. and now, the biggest fan of "options action." >> gives you all the information you want. >> just wants to know one more thing. what will dan do now? before we answer that, let's see how much money was made. had you bought yahoo! at the time of the trade, you would have made just over 10%. dan's trade required no premium and can be sold today for just over $95. so, technically, that is a return of a million percent or so. >> of course. >> should put a little smile on your face. a million dollar smile on your face. >> a smirk. >> smiles aside, dan what do you do now?
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>> we sold the put to buy call spread. and so, you do this in names where you have a lot of, you know, there was valuation support, these guys have a third of their market cap in cash when you put the trade on. and now with the stock above the short call strike and the spread is worth half the distance, i think you take it off and you move on and you look for a better entry point. at the very least, if you think this stock is going to continue to go, you cover that put and you stay -- >> this is a trade that obviously would capitalize the fact that the market's been going higher, you are short more options than you're long. but you are still short that put. it's a low premium put. you don't want to be in that position now, i think you would want to take that off. >> i like the name, i would probably keep that call spread. but there's no reason to be short cheap options. >> as a reminder, if you want updates on our trades, be sure to foul local us on twitter @cnbcoptions. dan posts regular updates @riskreversal. and finally, if you are on facebook, stay posted on our trades at facebook.com/optionsaction.
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okay, we're done with all the p.r. now. up next, the final call from the options pits. what's your best option? following us on twitter. get trade updates, breaking news and analysis. see what we see in real time. follow us on twitter @cnbcoptions. get more "options action" with our newsletter, delivered directly to your inbox. packed with exclusive information and analysis. this is the extra edge you need. it's free when you register, or visit the member center at cnbc.com. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ]
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...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪
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[ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade.
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it's the headline-making news around the world. no, we're not talking about the pope. we are talking about mini options. now, these are options that are just a tenth of the size of regular options. why do you need something like that? well, have you seen the price of an apple call? these products should make it more affordable for retail investors, yeah, moms and pops, to buy options on expensive stocks. they're going to be available on names like apple, google and amazon. they are also available on the spy and the gld and they start trading next week. looking forward to that, guys
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what do you think of it? >> probably going to be a lot of activity in this. we saw the weekly options brought out a lot of new market participants. i think these will, too. affordable wail for people to start trading options. and because of all that activity, i think it's going to be a lot of liquidity there. going to be a lot going on. >> scott? >> i think mike is right. you have to remember, they cover ten shares instead of 100 shares. but for a name like google, you have to watch your execution. it's not going to narrow that bid as spread. >> very important news, other headlines we are watching around the world, big shoutout to dan's dad, welcome to the show. okay. time now for the final call. the last word from the options pits before we let you go to the weekend. scott, kick it off. >> i wish we could get volatility back, but i like linkedin. >> i don't advocate trying to pick a bottom here with apple. use options to pray for a melt up. >> mike? >> i like selling that call spread in linkedin. this might be the place to call the top. and, also, i kind of like
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calendar spreads in the vix, as well. that's a decent way to play for a pop. >> our time has expired. i'll mandy drury. for more "options action," go to optionsaction.cnbc.com. going to see you next friday at 5:00 p.m. "money in motion" up is next after the break. [ indistinct shouting ]
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♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪

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