tv Squawk Box CNBC March 22, 2013 6:00am-9:00am EDT
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good morning, everybody. and welcome to "squawk box" here on becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is on assignment today in the big easy. european stocks opening lower today. if you take a look, you'll see right now, some red arrows. not massive losses at this point. the cac is down by 0.5%. we're continuing to watch to see the market's reaction. but the eu has threatened to withdraw its bailout offer for cyprus. most of the major asian markets sold off overnight. the nikkei in japan was the big loser. wait down by 2.3%. u.s. equity futures have been hanging in there at this point. the dow futures are up by 10.5 points right now. our chief international correspondent michelle caruso
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cabrera remain necessary cyprus this morning and joins us with the latest. michelle. >> becky, the latest is that right now they're writing up a plan c to submit to the troika which hopefully would meet all the requirements of a bailout that cyprus needs by monday. ultimately, parts of that plan are going to have to be approved by the body in the building behind me, parliament. that remains to be seen. in the meantime, the cash shortage here is becoming accuse. once again, we are seeing lines at the atms of laiki bank. not as long as yesterday, but now when people arrive at those atms, they're seeing signs, there's a limit of 260 euros. gas stations will no longer accept credit cards because their suppliers are telling them they will only accept cash. we found one man who was still willing to charge because he had
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been in business so long and long-time customers, he didn't want to upset them. in the meantime, the employees of bank laiki are still protesting down the road from parliament. they're not permitted to get close at this point because there was violence yesterday. they've heard part of the plan includes a winddown of some point where they divide up the bank .into good assetes and bad assets. typical of what we've seen with bank resolutions in parts of the wrorld. the people who work at the bank are very, very angry. one woman i spoke with last night said, wait a minute, we're going to lose our jobs. why weren't they willing to take the 10% hit on their uninsured deposits? >> because they want to pay everything from -- they're millionaires. we have to pay for them because they don't want 10% from their money.
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>> so the drama unfolding here is what exactly is parliament going to approve at this point? we're waiting to find out. there have been rumors that they were going to go back to the original plan of taxing deposits. i am toll that's not going to be submitted to the troika. that may be the pipe dream of some in parliament. ladies and gentlemen, back to you. >> thanks, michelle. i was looking at the european bourses and i mean, if they can't sell off on this, and it's on -- you know, it's 0.2% of their economy and, you know, we're worried about whether there's any ripple all the way over to us. >> it may want be an instant market reaction, though. it may be something that's more of a concern about whether there would be other countries that step out of the eu. >> don't you think the markets could anticipate whether there would be further trouble or not? >> i don't know. i think this is -- >> we would be seeing it if it was really -- if they he can't sell off in europe, we shouldn't be looking at it at all for our
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markets here. >> no. michelle, what's that? >> i know you're over there, but you don't care. >> the one ripple effect i can think of is -- the one ripple effect i can think of is that if when they wind down this bank, there's some wealthy russians or wealthy companies that had money in there that they would lose a substantial portion of, perhaps 50% of the uninsured deposits if they do a wind down. if they have a margin call, you know what i'm saying? some kind of ripple effect maybe related to a russian company or a russian individual. but when it comes to systemic risk in europe, clearly, the market reaction has emboldened the european toes a strong line against the cypriots. >> the eu said this would be a one off if they do a deal that takes a haircut from the depositors. do you believe that's really the case, michelle sthp. >> i absolutely believe that is the case. and here is why. remember what i told you first
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day back almost a week ago. the banking system here is on so huge relative to the economy he. it doesn't compare anywhere else to anywhere in europe except for maybe luxembourg. it's eight times that of the economy. the u.s. banking system, to be as large relative to our economy as the cyprus banking system is to their economy, we would need 45 more jpmorgans in order to have that sizes of the economy. there's somewhere else comparable. the only place they could go was deposits. the big mistake was going after uninsurance -- i mean insured deposits. >> i think i told that from you. that is a good point, but i think i stole it from you. >> the serendipitous part of this for me is that all the countries that are in trouble are like in southern europe for you. you're not in finland, you're not if poland.
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all the trouble is -- >> beautiful places, joe. >> that's good. that's really good. and then when i said -- >> i do frequently say to myself thank goodness this isn't happening in azurbashaun. >> you have to get there. you're doing it for us and we really appreciate it. >> wait, wait. if this country does leave the euro, we want to see that. we want to document that. >> no, i was just saying because it's not affecting our markets doesn't mean that you shouldn't be there. and we're glad that you are there. >> right. >> be glad it's like 80 and sunny. because it's not here. and you know why it's so cold here. >> you did this to me earlier this morning. i fell into your trap already once. >> you did. you know why it's 26 degrees here today. >> global warming. >> right. in corporate news, today is
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the end of dell's 45-day go shop period. michael dell will find out if other bidders think his company is worth more than he does. dell and silver lake announced a $24.4 billion buyout last month. black stone is said to be a likely candidate that might trump the share. reuters is reporting that southeastern asset management expressed interest in joining. and nike shares getting a boost in after hours trading, the company's quarterly earnings were above wall street estimates and margins, which is important when you follow nike also increased. future demand for its apparel and shoes also rose. >> shares of monster beverage taking a hit in extended trading. the sell-off comes after finding
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energy drinks may affect blood pressure and the heart's rhythm. this research was presented at an american heart association meeting. that report found an increase in 3.5 points increase in systolic increased pressure. have you ever had one? >> no. i've had red bull, though. >> never of any kind? >> i've never drank jolt cola. there was a kid who drank a bunch of them in college and ran around the news room and fell asleep under his desk. >> that's self-medicating. dourmz no-doz? >> i do. >> do you remember the feeling -- >> i never took them. but all those things scared me because you crash afterwards. >> and you don't feel good. i can't imagine a concentrated dose of caffeine. >> how much cups of coffee is in those things? five or something?
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>> i don't know. >> boost posted better than expected results. and the company said its outlook for price sess improving. >> are you dreaming of a white easter? >> no. but we might get snow on monday. >> because another major storm, i'm looking at it, is coming in up in oregon. >> at the beginning of next week. i picked osu for my bracket, too. >> you did? >> yeah. >> it's possible we might have a white easter. i love that. >> i thought we were supposed to get a white monday. at the end of the week, too? >> i don't know. i wouldn't be surprised because you know why. >> global warming. >> global warming. salesforce.com is approving a four for one stock split. it's going to take effect in april. the company's stock would begin trading on a split adjusted basis on april 18th. and honda is recalling 76,000 acura tsx sedans all in the
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united states. the automaker needs to install a water resistant cover and it's designed to prevent core roegz that could ultimately lead to stalling, which would be bad. honda says road salt and water from the drivers' shoe could soak the carpet underneath the dashboard. so far, no crashes or injuries have been reported related to this issue. key stats this morning for casinos with exposure to macau, the number of visitors to macau last month rose. those coming from china up more than 17% during the same time period. >> wow. china is levying duties on a chemical imported from the united states in japan. that chemical is used to produce rubber adhesive and mechanics. this is the latest. some japanese companies face duties of more than 40%.
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and a subsidiary of u.s. based petroleum faces duties of 30%. right now, let's get to the business of hollywood. 2012 was a hit year. global box office tickets rose to $34.7 billion. sales in china rose 36% and it is now the largest international market. did you know this? >> no, i did not know that. 34 billion global. or 30 some billion. >> was it? >> yeah. like 10 billion in this country. i made the point before that -- >> you're right, 34.7 billion. the cultural impact of the movie industry is loornlg. >> right. >> this is a decent quarter for -- i mean, 8 billion is an average quarter for an average company. just weird that it has such a big -- >> but look at how many times we bring up movie references. >> i know, i know, i know. that's because you don't want to tack about, you know, super market sales. >> i kind of like super market
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sales. >> i'm complaining about the undue -- >> undue influence, even though it affects us personally and is we are driven right along wis. nbc universal. >> i know. he's the exception to the rule. those other blow hards that run that place. >> ron is real. >> he is. >> yes. why don't we talk about -- >> he's a marine. >> i know. he worked his way up starting on the -- >> cool. >> he was a boxer? >> i think so. >> i didn't know that. that's cool. >> yeah. he is cool. in washington news, the senate overwhelmingly passed the largely symbolic appeal of the tax. that helps to fund president obama's 2012 health care law.
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the senate voted on the tax but the resolution is not binding and it will not change the levy. so they get to say we voted to repeal it even though it doesn't actually repeal it. >> you said dumping duties? >> i said anti-dumping duties, actually. >> dumping duties. let's check on duties. >> d-u-t-i-e-s. >> okay. let's check on markets. i saw them early, even though -- >> duties? >> duties. kyle, you're still doing that, right? >> duties? yes. he doesn't call it that. >> oh, yeah, lots of them. you want a healthy -- you know? it's a growing boy. he's a big, strapping kid. >> he's got it. >> futures indicated higher even though europe is lower, up 13 points or so. not a great day yesterday. we lost about 90 on points. there's what's happening in
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crude this morning, up 21 cents a share -- or 21 cents a barrel. treasuries, 1 is.9%. i would have been watching grass dry for the last year or two and there's the dollar. 12.29 on europe. and then, you know, you would figure gold might be a little more. no -- >> yeah. one of our guests yesterday was somebody that thinks that gold is no longer a safety play. >> really? yeah. which is why you haven't seen gold moving up. >> as we print, print, print. >> right. karen cho is standing by in london. good morning. >> good morning, becky. markets are very much watching the situation in cyprus and we are waiting for a statement now from the government in cyprus. events have been moving very, very quickly on the ground this morning.
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the finance minister had flown to moscow to wait it out for a negotiation on some form of the deal. but he's since flown back to cyprus this morning empty handed. all he managed to secure was the extension of an existing loan. the onus is now very much on the europeans and what they'll come up with. russian visitors were not interested into buying into the gas reserves. we are now waiting to see what they would come up with a plan to restructure the bank. but this discussion has been delayed and it feels as though this may have happened, some of the europeans, particularly the german webs they had been in this situation saying that they wanted to see out of any proposals, debt sustainability and also bank restructuring. this sustainability has been key because if the cypriots
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requested any form of a new loan, this would add to the debt burden that they had. the question has always been since the cypriots rejected that tax, how they plug this gap on the 5.8 billion euros worth of funds. and there seems to be no answer. the problem here is that we're now ticking down to this timeline on monday because the ecb has threatened to withdraw emergency funding. so the events of the weekend will be keep. what the germans are saying is they don't know whether there will be some form of a meeting over the weekend to discuss cyprus. this leads to so many question marks if there's no meeting to dus any proposal. where does this leave us on monday? will the banks reopen? there's so many question marks about what's playing out on the ground there. this is very much a political crisis rather than economic crisis that we're seeing today in europe. nonetheless, investors are now pricing in an element of risk around cyprus exit, guys.
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>> karen, thank you. we're going to move on and we're going to look again at cyprus and talk to someone that actually might know something about whether it means anything for the u.s. markets. we're going to find out next because if it does, we want to know about it, even though not a whole lot of movement today. we'll find out. >> announcer: before you hit the road, here is your traveler's check. good news for airlines, the international air transport association is raising its airline profit forecast for 2013. why? more confidence about the global economy. and better airline industry financials. so how much profit will airlines make this year? find out next. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance...
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what will be the profit for the global airline industry this year? it's projected $10.6 billion. that's up from the previous $8.4 billion. welcome back, everybody. the u.s. equity futures have been indicated slightly higher this morning. we've been keeping an eye and the dow futures are up by 14.5 points right now. s&p futures are barely higher.
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nasdaq up by 3.5 above fair value. let's get to the national forecast from the weather channel's jen carfagno. jen, we have been worried about getting hit by snow again. i heard you guys bantering about it earlier, too. if you look at some of those ten-day models, you have two chances of snow coming up sunday and monday. >> bring it on. >> and maybe the easter vigil night. but anyway, that check is ten days out. believe it or not, guys, it is sleeting in atlanta. there have been some sleet pel pellets reported at the airport. there is another storm, though, that we're tracking. that's one we have to watch through the weekend. that's the one that new york city might get some snow out of. we'll be watching snow, st. louis, kansas city into sunday. but it's that area of low pressure that forms off the coast, like all of our other storms have done this season. that's what we've got to watch. and it throws back the moisture.
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new york city likes like it will be on the northern edge of potential snowfall. it has the fall during the overnight to get an accumulation. and then on the other side of things, it's a severe side like there has been to all of our storms. both tomorrow and sunday, severe weather. tiger woods is trying to win his eighth palmer invitational in orlando. storms might be a factor on sunday and i know he's very sensitive to the weather. it was chilly for him yesterday morning. this will be one to watch for the weekend. back to you. >> yeah. he's sensitive to being happy in his personal life, too, i think. well, he is. he seems -- lindsay vonn. he's won two tournaments already this year. remember when he was going through all that stuff? >> first time he's seemed happy since. >> do you remember our buddy, andre. brooke shields, she was his wife. and then he he got rid of -- and brought in stefi and started winning. it matters to all of us.
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>> all of us. >> now it's time to talk some other sports. march madness, a few upsets and some other very close calls. number 14, harvard. the egg heads. did cramer take harvard? i'll bet you he didn't, topping number 63, new mexico. that did hurt me deeply. although i did have cal. i had the bears. >> i picked all three of these wrong. >> i thought california beat colorado. because of boone pickens, i picked the stupid cowboys, even though i knew the fighting ducks were pretty good. although fighting ducks, you know, that doesn't do much. >> i did the same thing. they said one and i didn't pick them. boone would give so much grief. >> oregon. marquette davidson was unbelievable and everybody i think had marquette. marquette in the last second
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with a lay-up won by 59-58. memphis, scared at the end, i had memphis of over st. mary's. and i also had the shockers, yeah, i had the shockers. i had them. 73-55. i only lost -- >> why did you pick them? >> blake, my daughter, loves the shockers. i don't know why. she has the w -- you go like this. you have to be careful because you could do wisconsin. she has the shockers going to the final four. they're a good defense. >> wow. >> but i was 14-2 yesterday. >> i was not. >> you're 10-4. that's not bad. 14-2. oh, 10-6. i'm sorry. >> that's okay. >> but still, today, i got cincinnati, i got iowa state. >> i played too safe with a lot of these. >> you can't -- you have to play it safe. it's stupid to try to go against like a -- >> you are beating me because you didn't play it safe. >> no, i did. i took almost all the -- >> yeah, but he the ones you
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didn't take are the ones you wron on. >> new mexico, that's going to hurt me. the last thing i was expecting, harvard. the world is umdz upside down. >> are these the bear cats or something? >> no. that's crimson. >> reminds me of the crimson tide. >> a long way from that. good luck, harvard. but whether cramer comes on today, we have to ask him. that's going a long way for school pride. anyway, getting back to the markets, glenn lummie and from the cme michael gurka. and we've been kicking it around, i'd say the european markets being down ten points, it hasn't gotten any better in terms of the prospect. doesn't that indicate if they can't get worried, maybe we shouldn't be as worried about cyprus here? >> i guess so. i think our market, though, the last time, maybe more downside
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than upside, right? >> because they've made such a big move. >> they made a big move and i don't see a lot of potential for huge earnings growth. i think the bond market and the stock market are telling us some similar things, but also opposite things. the bond market is telling us there's an overcapacity of labor, asset capacity, inflation is not a threat, and bernanke is going to keep buying $85 of bonds a month until january 14th when he's up for -- >> do we need growth or multiple expansion for the market to keep going? >> multiple expansion requires that rates remain low. >> i thought we knew they were going to stay loan. >> well, that's the assumption, right? and we don't even know. if he gets asked to serve again on january 14th, he may say no and then we get another chairman and the stimulus policy is not as extreme.
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but i think as long as bernanke keeps pumping money into the system, there's really no risk. >> threats go across the board of the markets. michael, what are you seeing? >> surprisingly, markets have held well here. when i was out there on your set looking at the 52 level for the suspect as a target for the pullback, i think the markets are behaving very well in regards to -- you know, well to start the year and a little profit taking with adverse conditions. one thing we mentioned was how platinum was trading $100 over gold. that was a complete reciprocal action we were looking for.
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>> i think we had -- like on that liesman survey, a huge majority said we've seen the highs or the year. with the clouns we survey, i think that means kookd see a move. what do you think, michael? >> no one is going to be able to gauge any of the momentum of the market, let alone how the sectors behavior. so one of the reasons why we think this was a healthy move is the fact that it confirmed our first pullback in what happened be further waves higher as we get to, three and near the second and third quarters. >> i don't know whether bernanke and the rest of the fed will be right about the numbers. something like 3% or 4%.
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if that's happening, there's no reason why we should have seen the high by march of this year. >> no, but, again, that's engagement. for them to set a number of numbers, the problem is you're going to hit them all except what you're going to miss is payroll. payroll is the food for the dogs. that's going to be the problem when you're left out strand b in the middle of the course. i think that blends in with how the commodity markets will start seeing the risk on trade at that time. >> do you think we've seen the high? >> no. it's hard to say. we could see higher. >> we live in the news room. we have a completely dysfunctional washington, we have international problems. we have a lot of things that could couple up as news events.
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when there's a different branch in the executive branch than the legislative branch, markets tend to do better. in this case, i think it's bad. we need to figure out what we're going to do in terms of cutting spending. i think the real things we need to do washington will never do. but there's some simple fixes that we could do. for example, taxes. why don't we just enforce it? why do we have such a huge cash economy that goes unforced? it's politically incorrect to say it, but -- yeah, exactly. just simplify the tax code ask enforce it.
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why hurt people that are paying their taxes? do things that are common sense. stop operating with blunt instruments and can go after the economy in a way that's logical. but we're way too dysfunctional and our politicians are way too economically unsophisticated to think of things like that. >> is that like a -- >> i was waiting to see if you were going to ask me about it. it's out there. >> it's spring. >> there's a pattern on it. >> that's a nice pattern. is it like one of those diamond wrap things? didn't you invent that or something? >> the wrap dresses, i have a couple of other dresses that
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aren't wrap dresses. >> if i pull that thing, is that a problem? >> yes. >> you don't know that she invented that wrap things? >> yo. i barely know who diana -- >> you pull the whole thing. >> if you pull it, it comes off. we'll do anything for ratings. >> i would figure it's not a good idea to pull it. >> i'm not saying i'm going to do the it, but i'm saying i might. in the next 2 1/2 hours, you want to watch because there may be a time when you do. >> i'll be careful for the rest of the day. thanks for coming in. >> glue. >> not a bad idea. thank you. >> go marquette. >> go marquette. he's a marquette fan. i didn't think that was, but it was awesome.
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when we come back, is there a doctor in the house? hospital stocks have been on a run as we near the end of the first quarter. right now, though, why don't you take a look at yesterday's winners and losers. >> it was wonderful. bravo. i loved that. it was pretty good. it wasn't bad. >> there were parts of it that could have been a lot worse. >> it was terrible. >> it was bad. >> it was awful. >> boo! this is america.
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run basically since the health care passed three years ago. millions of more paying customers come into the fold and the number of uninsured reduced. hospitals will be flooded with medicaid money. some estimates call for 25% revenue growth in the hospital space. take a look at health care. about 50 hospitals, more than 13,000 beds. one year, 111 % to the upside. amazing. and it hasn't slowed in 2013. up about 39% just this year. that's basically five times better than the entire s&p 500. the interesting thing here, analysts still think there's opportunity. just this week, brian tanqualett upgraded saying we believe the group still has meaningful upside left, particularly as key reform components, i.e. medicaid expansion and health insurance exchange reimbursement begin to shape up. he upgraded to a buy.
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he also upgraded hma, health management associates, even though that name is up 80% in the last year. if you bought hospital stocks on the wave of the affordable care act, you did well. many analyst s still see tess low. . >> schact, you're 14-2, also. >> i am. and you're on my case for not knowing. >> you didn't though. i picked harvard. >> i did have harvard. i always go with a few -- i used to go with the high seeds to make it through, but i go for a few random picks. i like the eye vif league thing. >> you also picked cowell. i picked cowell, but i was very proud. >> 0-5 isn't that big of a stretch. you shouldn't pat yourself on the back. >> i'm not. but you did a 14-3, isn't it?
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>> i had picked one of the elite eight, so even though i look good now, in a couple of days, i may not look very good. >> i have crazy picks today, too. i'm stepping out and i'm worried. >> cincy? >> i have the bear counties, yes. colorado, too. >> who picked -- >> colorado is good, though. they might win. >> colorado is why i picked cowell, because cowell beat colorado. we're obsessed with this. i think valvano? is that what started this? >> a billion dollar industry. >> all right. coming up -- that's, schact. after months of speculation and hype, consumers can finally get their hands on the new blackberry v-10 this morning. eric schmidt loves it. mostly women love the keyboard because all they do is e-mail each overall morning.
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again in europe that we're not understanding the russian national interest over issues such as cyprus, over issues such as trade in wto, energy and elsewhere? >> i believe i understand the position of russia. i believe why russia has that position, but we have another perception and reality. the question is, is this a real obstacle for achieving progress? for instance, we have discussed today here for trade, investment, energy to mobility. i don't think it is. >> and michelle caruso cabrera will join us with more in the next hour. >> customers, by the way, are finally going to be able to get their hands on the blb 10 today. jackie deangelis has more on this debut. jackie, i know joe is a skeptic
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now that he's a new i tone -- >> my life is so enriched. >> but i am still completely reliant on this thing. this one doesn't even have the real keyboard, right? >> right. and you make a really good point. a lot of people are still relying on the blackberry. it does go on sale at at&t here today. i happened to get my hands on one here. $199.99 with a contract. it would be $650 if you're just buying the phone on its own. there are no lines here. first of all, we did have a preorder for the phone so people could preorder online and receive the phone today. but also, apparently it was on sale at best buy stores@as of midnight last night. but today, a really important day for blackberry and also the ceo. this is an opportunity to turn things around. a second chance, if you will. blackberry's market share has dropped to 8%. that's according to come sports, compared to apple's 34% or
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google's 18%. in 2009, blk shares arelty $19%. they have to stay want the needs, they have to keep the royal customers like you and me using the phone and they also have to try to gain a lot bit of share if they can. morgan stanley, of course, upgrading the stock. it has an estimated 20% margin. we are going to see this phone go on-saul in verizon stores next week. i wanted to highlight here, they do have apps and i can't get out of it now. so there's probably a bit of a learning curve to use the phone. 1100,000 apps compared to apple's 700,000. so there's a lot of people here.
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we're going to have to wait and see. >> jackie, joe wants to know if there's a map out. >> jackie, i don't even know how to use the iphone, but i hit map. i was going somewhere in the city yesterday and all i had to do was put in the address. i didn't have to say where i was starting from because it knew and then it started talking to me. and i put it in my pocket and listened to this lady. >> turn left? >> yeah. and it took me down streets i had never been on. it's so -- watching march madness on your blackberry? >> no. i can't even -- >> you can't look at the internet. >> i can't download something i was looking at yesterday on the internet. jackie, i can't get what a loser aim. >> you can't and you won't -- >> what i told joe is that he doesn't e-mail me any more. now i don't have hear from him ever because he can't use it now
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that he's on the i phone. >> people say that you do get used to keying the keyboard even though it's different than the traditional blackberry. but at the same time, as a traditional user here who now has acquainted themselves with the iphone a little bit, figuring out you're swiping different ways, there's different buttons, there's technically some big differences here. i'm used to using an ipad so it's a whole new skill set. >> i know you're taunting me. i know i'm going to do it. joining us ta talk more about this and what it means from a business perspective is daniel hern. daniel, i had to idea until jackie just showed those statistics that the market share has gone from 4 % to 8% blackberry users. that sounds dangerously -- it sounds like a perilous number in terms of trying to keep that company going. >> i think at this point, given
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where the stock has gone in the last six months, that there's more risk to the downside. i think we should assume that the fans will be out, but as you reported and found out, we found in our presurveys, there's not a lot of interest. it's not sold out already. but assume that they have a first couple of good quarters. so the die hard fans will come out and buy them. although that's going to be an issue because the real die hard fans like yourself, the dinosaurs that are on my train every day coming in from connecticut, they're on the keyboard. that device won't be out for another two months in the u.s. they don't even have a date for it. you have a split between at&t, verizon, typical advertising back in january. and then, you know, the phone
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everyone in the dinosaur camp wants is not even out yet. >> if i'm going to use a touch screen, i'm going to get the iphone. >> right. so assume that you're okay with the launch and they can sell that. as blackberry pointed out on the last conference call, in order to get this phone into the carriers, they had to change carriers, they had to change what they did with service and that revenue stream, which is very high margin is going to start to erode over time. they will be losing that. they will keep it at the high end with blackberry enterprise subscribers. the rest of the consumer market, all the growth the last five years, they will start to lose that high margin. so blackberry has never had to exist entirely as haired wear margin company. and i think that's going to be very difficult to do as a niche player in mid volume. >> so that sounds daunting on
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every level. would you say this stock has a change, or do you think this is a long shot? is this like picking harvard in the brackets last night? >> i'm not sure what the odds are. i think at the outset, right here sitting at the launch at, you know, the price of the stock today, without earnings it's difficult to value. a lot more risk to the down side in the near turn than you have to be up side. >> all right. daniel, thank you. good talking to you. >> thanks for having me. >> bring that long-term rim -- black berry chart again. floss lines like with the apple intro. >> right. >> you know those guys at the parking lot, they're like, please, please, somebody come in and buy one of these things. >> but if you're a die hard you want the keyboard. >> crackberry nation. look at that chart.
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does that not sum up blackberry? crackberry nation. the world is more than e-mails. >> you don't e-mail. >> i don't e-mail anyone. if i do i put in two letters and the word comes up. and you can't do it with your thumb. and you can't do it while driving. you put your makeup on and text. >> no, i don't. i don't. >> still to come on "squawk", still the story of the morning, cyprus facing an eu ultimatum. solution by monday or out. because what you don't know can abouhurt you.ce. farmr what if you didn't know that boxes by the curb... make you a target for thieves? or that dog bites account for a third of all home liability claims? what if you didn't know that one in seven drivers is uninsured?
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welcome welcome back, everybody. almost five months after superstorm sandy recovery efforts are still continuing. of course if you saw the scenes you may assume that a lot of progress has been made. and it has. there's still a lot of room to go. we can't follow every twist and turn in the story. but we have some with connections. long beach island was hit hitter. tomorrow a fund-raiser at buckalew's. it was devastated by the events of october 29th. they're doing a lot of things to
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march madness has arrived. investors putting their portfolios to the first real test of 2013. a growing banking crisis in cypress. and no deal on the horizon. we get an outlook and see whether cyprus could be a bracket buster. >> plus, today's money madness matchup between wells fargo and general electric. find out which company is poised
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to have a better 2013 and whether or not these names should be in your portfolio. march madness in full swing. "squawk box" is the show you need to keep your portfolio in the game. >> he's in pain this morning. good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. andrew is off today. we've been watching the futures. they have been hanging in there at least for now. dow up 23.5 points. s&p up by just over one point. nasdaq as well by 4.5. in your headlines this friday morning, back to the drawing board is examine cyprus. officials are working on another plan to secure a bailout. a government spokesman said the next few hours will determine the state of the country. after two days of unsuccessful
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talks there to reach some sort of funding meal. much more from michelle caruso cabrera. nike reporting earnings of 73 cents a share. revenue came in a little shy of what the street was expecting. breaking an eight-quarter streak of declines. it is d-day for dell. today the marks the end of the 45-day go shop period for the computer makerment they are waiting to see if a buyout emerges superior from ceo mychal bell is and his partners. there's been some talk that a bid might be forth coming. but we'll see. again, this is d-day. troublesome news. our guest host robert altman and former treasury secretary. and chief market strategist for
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north america. has anyone called evercore? >> to bail out cyprus? >> yeah. you could easily come up with something. >> i think we would first have to figure out where it was. but we could help after we did that. >> the more i think about it. are we worried about too big to fail here? and then you think about the cyprus banking system. for us. but compared to the country, isn't the banking system a little oversized compared to the entire economy? this is really dangerous to have grown to that level. >> it's a smaller version of ireland when they got in such trouble because the financial sides of the banking system so outsized relative to gdp. and iceland a little bit before that. as becky said, we don't know what the resolution will be. it's entirely a psychological
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issue because the country is small. it's 18 billion euro. and the amounts of -- the size of the rescue package is so small. >> right. >> so the real question i think is the one martin wolf put his finger on on this show yesterday morning, which is will this rescue effort fall apart? will cyprus be forced out of the eurozone? will there be any domino effects to spain and italy as a result of that. the markets don't seem to be signaling that. they are trading right this minute at 1.90. it's down on the yield 12 basis points from the high. that's not a big move. so right now the markets seem to be signaling this is not a large, disturbing event or potentially that. we'll wait and see. >> is that because the market thinks the event is not going to happen or they don't care one way or the other? >> probably the former, but i'm not sure of that, becky. this will be worked out and
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cyprus won't be forced out. but, again, the amounts of money are so tiny it's completely psychological. >> it is. there's so many extenuating factors. the way it's supposed to work, david, you cover the insured people and then the guys that aren't insured lose their money because the banks are insolvent. but they are russian and they will have your legs broken. so there's all these extenuating factors. in the normal world, the bank is insolvent, insured people get their money and it's over, right? although you would have bondholders. and there aren't any bondholders because there's no capital. >> and it hasn't been for five years. i think the rule of law is a big issue. you have the insured up to 100,000 euros. above that i think you've got something that you can discuss. >> not if it's a russian. that's the problem. then they went give a loan to the country. >> you make excellent points. the sequencing the last number
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of quarters has been this pan american banking union. but that has been a bright star in the discussions we have seen. moving towards it. >> moving towards it. >> that was one positive note we could hang our hats on. i think they're really in a spot right now where they need that pan european banking, one depository insurance that investors can count on. and if they can harmonize across europe, that is something we can hang our hat o. if they do not, however that, would be problematic. >> when would it happen, onlier? >> i think one of the things, as you say, is how far the eurozone is from a true united states of europe. it's still a loose confederation.
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they haven't made much progress towards fiscal union. if they had the problems in the cyprus banking system wouldn't because they have been allowed to get to this point. >> right. >> they are so far from strong central controls and authority, and this illustrates that. now, a lot of people have said that and said it will take many, many, many years for centrality. this illustrates how far they are. >> is it a disaster if they left? >> only if markets interpret that really negatively and begin, as we saw earlier in the crisis with various types of contagion, to put a lot of pressure, for example, on spain or italy. in other words, you know -- >> we haven't seen it you. >> we haven't seen that yet.
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if i had to make a guess, and i wouldn't put more than a dollar on it. >> because you're cheap. >> i am cheap. >> there was no money involved. you didn't even fill out the brackets. >> there was money involved. that was the problem. >> if i had to make a dollar bet, even if they had to exit the eurozone it probably wouldn't contagion the eurozone. >> what if we took 0.1 off our gdp. >> it won't happen. alexander hamilton, their version of bringing this together, we'll see how much progress they make. but we're watch withing spread cds, sovereign and spain. obviously italy. france even. they are very quiet. if we see pressure, funding liquidity we're going to be on top of it. right now you are seeing -- i think it's the rule of law issue that could be critical. cyprus isn't that big. greece wasn't that big.
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cyprus is much smaller than that. i was in canada all week. and the discussions, what happened at the finance minister of france just got to go with the secretary of treasury and the fdic doesn't apply sunday night. it's something of an issue they have right there. as it stands right now. -- >> the germans are fed up. the other bailouts were so much bigger. it seems like penny wise and pound foolish. they have held the line on this small amount for a bailout. >> it's the russians. >> are the germans just fed up? if a bigger country that has -- where people don't work as hard and they got all that sun and everything. i think the germans resent some of the things that happen, the life that people enjoy in southern europe. and they're up there working in the rain and sleet. i think they resent southern europe. >> the linchpin of this cyprus resolution is the ecb. the cyprus rescue package is
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intended to maintain ecb support fort cyprus banking system. for example, treating cyprus sovereign debt as collateral for ecb assistance. and the ecb obviously is, to some degree, a creature of the germans. >> right. >> although to a lesser extent each day. but you have the ecb in effect holding the line. i think the ecb is doing the right thing. its credibility is critical. if you ultimately get to a united states of europe in the sense we think of it, you're going to have a strong flexible fed-like bank and the ecb will have tv lots and lots of credibility. so i think it's doing the the right thing. >> steve, if cyprus isn't worried, do you think it continues to climb? >> we're kind of at our target for equities for the year. it's been a good run. rustle 2,000 cap spacing.
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pushing double digits for the year. there has been something of a defensive characteristic. so i think what we would want to see is washington is not really hitting the markets and the economy as much as we would have thought. is there a rotation or is this cash bleeding off? psychology and sentiment are fickle but they can be powerful. there's not been a big change in the fundamentals. but sentiment, if it shifts, that could be something we want to notice. >> all right. we'll watch for that. thanks, steve. >> roger will be with us. did you see this? i thought it was a mistake. deborah norville. >> what about deborah? >> joining viacom board of directors. do you think one of us could go on the comcast board? doesn't that seem weird that deborah norville is going to be
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on the board of directors at viacom? i mean, it's great but i'm feeling better about myself. >> she has a syndicated show. >> i hope this won't offend you, but are you going on the board of comcast? the answer to that would be no. >> maybe g.e. maybe it would be a good thing to write. i don't want to be on a board that would have me as a director, actually, now that i think about it. uh, yeah. lulu lemon maybe. i want more sheerness in the yoga pants. i want more see through. anyway, comments, questions -- i'd make some bad decisions fiduciarily. e-mail us at squawk@cnbc. up next, the clock is ticking in cyprus as bank lines grow
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longer. the latest on talks to beat a monday deadline when the ecb is threatening to cut off funding. and harvard upset number three seed new mexico. 68-62. one of the ones i lost. i was asleep, though. crimson's first ever ncaa tournament win. the loss could be a bracket buster. we have our own brackets here on "squawk". money madness tournament rolls around today when g.e. takes on wells fargo. go to our facebook page and vote.
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checking the futures right now. trying to figure out -- the dow jones now up? >> it's been climbing all morning. >> tiffany earning 1.40 a share for its fourth quarter. sales will raise 6% to 8% with growth in all regions. we could not be on the board. >> no, you can't. you would have to quit. >> altman, i could be but i can't. >> i think you should use that explanation as to why you
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haven't been asked to be on 25 corporate boards. >> let's get to our chief international correspondent michelle caruso cabrera. michelle, what we're just hearing is that the country's finance minister is saying that the next few hours are going to determine the future of the country. that sounds pretty serious. >> yeah, it is. the government spokesperson came out about 15 minutes ago. he spoke 10 minutes and said almost absolutely nothing. the plan c is being written up right now by cyprus to submit to the european partners, see if they can get this one passed. we are almost 100% sure it includes the winddown in one of the weakest banks. there's protesters at the end of this street. they are worried about losing
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their jobs. the cash shortage here is still quite acute. gas stations are only accepting cash, the vast majority of them. they take up to 30 euros credit. no visa is a generic term for credit cards in general. i want to add something i said last hour. i absolutely believe there will not be an attempt to impose a tax on in the future when it comes to deposits. however, i think the one key lesson here is junior bondholders, senior bondholders will definitely take big losses if this goes down. and uninsured depositors will take losses. this is a big step for europe getting closer to the point where tax payers don't pick up the bills for failed states and failed banks. >> michelle, thank you. joining us now is financial
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times columnist jillian ted. michelle's point is a very good one. this is putting bondholders on notice that you could be taking serious losses. >> absolutely. they don't really help very much because cyprus banks are primarily funded with bank deposits, not with bonds. but going forward it's very clear that there is going to be a limit to the to using tax payer money. it has big implications not just for cyprus but places like spain as well. >> you know, roger, you're right. it's difficult to see how this is going to really be a domino effect from here. a lot least this point is one that could be won in terms of, yes, we're finally going to start to tackle this problem.
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>> yes. but as gillian and michelle said, that could be cathartic. for creditors who are junior to the insured depositors, which is everybody, they have to participate in the resolution of this. that's the right way in terms of finance theory for this to happen. >> but the problem has been who the bondholders have been. if you're looking at the other banks or the the governments being that, how do you start putting the losses in it sounds good in theory. why haven't they done it to this point and does that actually turn? >> i think the reason they haven't throughout the eurozone is fear the eurozone would collapse. faced with that choice you do what you have to do. >> but has enough time passed? >> bondholders, even though there aren't many of those, take losses, and uninsured depositors
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take losses, in the long run that's cathartic. and this is so tiny, i think you could probably do it that way without toppleng. >> beyond that. if you look to the rest of europe. gillian, do you agree this could be a cathartic situation. >> it could and couldn't. it exposes a key question, the germans say they don't want to see more hazard, nor do the fins and many others would agree with them. but they don't want to see a breakup of the eurozone. the eurozone will only stay together with a lot of moral hazard. if you let cyprus two, if there is no deal by monday, essentially you could see a very nasty mess there. it's going to be tough to constrain it just to the island. let nobody forget there are big security policy issues here as well because the russians do have a strong interest in
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cyprus. the island is in a strange position. since 2004 it's been a member of the european union but not nato. the russians have made no secret of trying to get another mediterranean base. >> they say negotiations are over as far as they're concerned. they're not going to be stepping in and offering this bailout. >> but if cyprus actually does fail to produce any kind of deal by monday and the ecb cuts cyprus off, then frankly, all bets are off. >> roger, do you agree from the defense perspective? >> well, i think what this conversation illustrates is that -- from the ecb point of view, they are trying to manage this on a basis which avoids moral hazard. in other words, let the appropriate creditors take the losses.
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and we'll see what happens if we get to monday and the issue is a choice between that and cyprus exit from the eurozone. we will see who may blink. it's clear that they're trying to achieve. >> thank you very much for joining us. roger is our guest host. he will be staying with us. >> okay. coming up, weight watchers. is that like a joke? >> board of weight watchers? hair club for men? >> well. >> lady clairol is not a company, is it? >> no. somebody owns clairol. >> pfizer. funny. because of lipitor. i don't have high blood pressure. >> coming up, trading block is standing by to talk currencies and oil. kenny chesney. check this out. mayor bloomberg -- pepsi is rolling out a new shape for its
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up next, tools of the trade. we break down the moves in gold, oil ahead of the weekend. nd.nds] ♪ [ watch ticking ] [ engine revs ] come in. ♪ got the coffee. that was fast. we're outta here. ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪ [ laughter ] ♪ [ female announcer ] each one of us is our own boss. ♪ and no matter where you are in life, ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪
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welcome back to "squawk box", everyone. we are keeping an eye on the situation in cyprus. the the fcc chairman is reportedly set to announce his departure. reuters is reporting that he will make his announcement today after four years on the job. his term set to expire in june >> apple is set to unveil the latest versions of iphone and ipad june 29th according to a tech website. the event will take place at apple headquarters on the sixth anniversary of the introduction of the original iphone. shares up after the company announced an $8 billion share buyback program. following the sale of its stake in tnk.
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that joint venture that was out there. the event was larger than some had anticipated. stock is up by 2.8%. cyprus leaving russia today with no deal for rescue. steve sedgwick joins us from moscow. steve, you were there at the press conference. what did you pick up? >> reporter: yeah. i've been speak to the president of the european commission and the prime minister of russia, medvedev i've got questions in to both of them. i took to task for europeans. what the russians wanted out of the discussions with cyprus and the eu. let's listen to my question and his answer. >> are we proving time and time again in europe we're not understanding the russian national interest over issues such as cyprus, over issues such as syria, trade, energy and elsewhere as well? >> i believe i understand the position of russia.
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and why russia has that position. but we have another perception and another analysis. and we define it another way. now, the question is, is this difference or are there differences a real obstacle for achieving progress in the issues we have discussed today from trade, to investment, to energy, to mobility. i don't think it is. >> fascinating there to see that the europeans said they do understand the russians. that's not what medvedev said earlier in the week. and i asked about the importance of the chinese. the president on his first foreign tour. he's in moscow and they're going to sign a whole host of energy deals. russia is looking to boost those
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relationships. when asked whether they were going to add assistance to the cypriots they said this is an issue for brussels. it's an issue for cypress and the eu. i thought that was quite extraordinary given the stance they made earlier in the week about wanting to be involved. i think their bluff has been called certainly. and what i think was really the key, it was not that the russians had anything to help in a meaningful way but i wanted to be included in debates. as we all know the russian interests in cyprus are absolutely enormous. >> steve, thank you. sounds like a big game of chicken. we'll watch how things play out into monday. by the way, it is friday. it's time to talk the friday trade. oil and currencies. kevin kerr is president of kerr trading financial. and brown brothers hair man. mark, have you been surprised? >> i'm surprised just by the euro's resilience. people were thinking there could be a run on european banks which
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hasn't taken place. a loss of confidence. but it has been trading in fairly tight trading ranges. it has been resilient this week. italy still without a tpo government. >> how do you position yourself? >> monday is when the ecb said it will cut cypress off without a deal. i think it's best to be patient and wait for things to shake out. i think we have had a relatively strong run to the dollar here at the first quarter. and i think that we should be looking for a bounce in foreign currencies. it's signaled by sterling testing the 1.52 level this morning. i would be looking for them to bounce a little bit. once the cyprus news is passed early in the week. and i might be selling into the foreign currencies, buying the dollar. >> kevin, if we're watching oil price, what's been happening
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with the dollar, the euro, what is the key for the next thing we should be watching, the next real motivator. >> we stay range bound. there's not a lot coming in. even with the dollar strength we have seen crude strong between 88 and 98. and i think we're going to stay in that range until q3. then we will see a shift higher. oil above $100 again. >> why? >> well, we're seeing strong demand. even with the dollar higher, we're seeing strong demand even in asia. >> going along with what the the fed sees with the improvement in the economy. >> enough to push oil prices higher, yes. if we can hold it with the way it is now, imagine when it does start to improve how high things can go. >> gentlemen, thank you. have a great weekend. >> thank you. . sometimes we've got to talk.
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>> did you see the picture? this is so cool. roger, have you seen this? >> it's on the cover of the "times" and the -- both "times". financial times. where do you want me to go? okay. universe only 380,000 years old. that's how old this light is from the plank telescope. >> how did they get it? >> it's from a satellite and the telescope is out there. it's cosmic wave. shows a heat map 370 years after the universe was born. 13.8 billion years ago. they added 80 million years to how old the universe is. it confirms that the universe inflated a trillion trillion trillion fold within a micro second. which is faster than bernanke is inflating our currency. it's not quite a trillion trillion trillion fold with him. what got me was it looks like that's the universe and like
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there's emptiness or something. i don't think that's true. i think that is everything. that's everything that they got. but it is amazing. and the further you look the older the stuff is that you're seeing since it's generally at the speed of light. it's really cool. a trillion trillion trillion. it's been expanding ever since. it finishes with -- confirms cosmic inflation theory and suggests a bleak future of endless expansion to cold nothingness for all of us. >> so we have that going for us. something to look forward to. >> i'm getting on a board. i see good stuff in here. it's like a token. if i'm elected to lululemon, i'm promising more transparency. >> more transparency. >> nasa will launch the james webb telescope, a successor to the hubbell and it's going to be
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even more powerful and penetrating. you can imagine the results of that one. >> i wonder what we can get to? 380,000 out of 14 billion is cool. coming up, biotech firm gilead. manager of the calvert equity portfolio joins us next. and a vulture is circling. we talked to wilbur ross. we talked to him about whether he's buying the entire country. >> last time on he talked about greece. clients are always learning more to make their money do more. (ann) to help me plan my next move, i take scottrade's free, in-branch seminars... plus, their live webinars.
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departure. hertz gold plus rewards also offers ereturn-- our fastest way to return your car. just note your mileage and zap ! you're outta there ! we'll e-mail your receipt in a flash, too. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. welcome back, everybody. we've been watching what's happening with earnings. darden restaurants earning $1.02 a share for third quarter, one cent better than the street expected. revenue came in line with consensus. the company did give updated guidance.
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it cut its fiscal year outlook. it would hold back on price hikes to increase traffic. they struggled with that earlier. and the payroll tax increases hurting its result. stock up 0.4%. >> and in our what's working segment, large cap stocks. richard england, calvert investments. you like gilead? >> i do. >> big market cap already for a market tech. >> it is a big market cap. of all the stocks we have in the portfolio this is the one i believe that has the most positive revisions. >> it is so big, richard, that it's almost mind boggling. $67 billion. >> it is. as many of you probably know, it already is the dominant player in the hiv/aids market.
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and that business is still growing 10% a year. but the real story for the stock is their upcoming launch -- likely launch of a drug in hepatitis c which is a not very well served disease. there's an enormous number of patients globally that need to be traded. >> there are some drugs for hepatit hepatitis. do they not cure it? this cocktail could almost -- the gilead drug, does it get it to almost zero? >> there's different genotypes of this disease. the results have been a little different. but in some cases we have seen absolute cures. and the existing therapy doesn't work terribly well. it has lousy side effects. and is injectable. gilead solution is oral. >> no. really? >> in some cases cures. has very little, if any, side
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effects. >> they were tamiflu, too, weren't they? >> yeah. >> i still have some that i stockpiled. i'll have to try it for the flu, i think. >> that's their drug. >> what else do you like? >> in the portfolio we also have decent sized positions in cost co, which has pulled back a little bit. under performed so far year to date. it's one of the best retailers out there as navigated right through all the retail mind fields we have seen here lately posting amazingly consistent comps. mostly in traffic. but even on sales on top of that. over in the energy space, which has been a difficult environment, cameron international, an equipment player, has an enormous backlog. just last week, got a big order from petro. that's one where we expect
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substantial earnings growth each of the next several years. >> what else? keep it going while we have time. >> keep it going. in addition to that, we're hopeful for edwards life science. it's been a little more controversial. that's the catheter delivered heart valve. there's been debate about the pace of the launch of that. it's at a lower point now. we think expectations are probably more appropriate. and the stock is attractive. that one is also that we have good expectations for. additionally, in the technology space we have pretty good sized positions in google which is perked up on a year to date basis but we think is getting back on track. 12 months ago that was fairly controversial. it's not nearly so controversial now. >> all right.
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greg, you don't know offhand whether any of those companies are -- have open board seats, do you? >> no, i don't. i'm not aware of that. >> okay. just wondering. >> you have the science background. >> just let me know. see you later. >> nice to talk to you. >> we're on break. altman. did you do that just for me? >> i was hoping he would. >> talking about all the boards. you're just throwing it in my face. >> you were talking about corporate boards. there are probably many noncorporate boards that would be interesting in having you. >> that you could be on, that wouldn't be a conflict. >> there are some veterinary clinics probably in mexico. >> up next, money madness continues. number 2 general electric set to take on number 3 wells fargo. which of these stocks do you think will be a better performer the rest of the year? log to and cast your vote.
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plus, we'll reveal yesterday's matchup, citi versus bank of america. speaking of brackets, wichita state will take on gonzaga after they beat pitt 73-55. that was wichita beating pitt. >> that's tomorrow. >> yes. that is a big one. i was nervous watching the whole time. >> great defense. shocker. >> malcolm had 22 points and that was incredibly impressive. more first round action later today.
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welcome back, everybody. we have tabulated your votes on our facebook page. a battle between the big banks, bank of america and citigroup. bank of america won with 68% of the votes. another 4 seed beating a 1 seed upset. yeah. that's right. it's moving on. bank of america. it is a powerhouse versus one of the four largest banks in america as general electric tackles wells fargo. you get to decide who advances based on which stock you think will perfect best. vote on facebook page today. joining us right now to help in your vision from boston, chief investment officer and portfolio manager. he covers general electric.
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and jim is the associate director of equity analysis at morningstar covering wells fargo. gentlemen, welcome. jack, what do you think the stock does between now and the end of the year? >> becky, i think there's a chance we will see $28 on the stock, which will be 14.5 times forward earnings. i like companies that make products and when you drop them on your feet they hurt. g.e. has done a great job restructuring the portfolio. they have shrunk the capital business by a third and derisked it significantly. the industrial side of the business has been restructured around some really good growth themes. principally oil, gas, water, energy. the aircraft engine businesses.
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they have very long ramps. huge backlogs involves. and i was very surprised yesterday to hear the comments out of sydney that it's not impossible that the financial business could be spun. and that is a real change of tone, as you know. you and i have been listening probably five years through the credit crisis. >> right. >> the party line, that it's an integral part of the corporate strategy. >> is it the right move, in your opinion? >> i think it's the right move strategically. i don't think it will create a lot of financial value. i think if you separate the two components and compare them to their peer group is full as it is. so i think from the point of view of reducing management distraction, from the point of view of redisking for a future
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crisis in the finance arena if there is one, it makes sense from that point of view. >> i thought it made sense to be able to finance the things that you drop on your foot for your clients. if you can finance it it's even better, right? >> absolutely, joe. and i think that's the big rationale. but that's a very small part. >> sit? >> of g.e. capital. yeah. joe, what about augusta, they must have a board? >> that's an ideaed. that's an idea. but you heard what i said. i don't want to join a board that would have me. >> makes it a little tricky. >> that is tough. >> jim, why don't you weigh in and make your case for wells fargo? >> it is one of the highest quality banks in the universe we cover at a reasonable price. it will easily earn $4 plus the next couple of years. it's trading under $40. single digit multiple of earnings that everyone knows they can get to.
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at the same time you'll have a lot more capital return. from 50% to two-thirds to shareholders. just got approval to bump up difficult deposition. more of that in the future. wells fargo, talking about g.e. capital. it finished about 20% cheaper than peers. when rates go back up, that's a huge advantage. compared to what wells is paying, zero percent to what a company has to pay to make the same loans. it's a huge advantage. this is a company easily doing double digit returns. >> jim, do you have a price target? >> $43. >> so you think 3715 is where it is today. jack is saying 23.30 is where g.e. is today. $28 price target. so you are both looking for growth here. measure the two out, if i'm sitting at home and playing
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along, if you are both right, jack still wins based on the percentage gains that you will see in the stock. >> that might be true. we will see who is right. >> but you're saying this is a stock -- of all the banks is this the one you would most want to own? >> compare it to other banks. look at the liability side. it is funded three fourths by deposits. look at the asset side. wells is doing bread and butter lending. most assets are loans. compare that to securities, derivatives, the trading accounts and at all the other big banks. it's a much similar business. >> gentlemen, thank you very much. this is tricky for everyone playing along at home. strong cases laid out for both stocks. go ahead. you get to make the choice. vote on facebook. send general electric or wells fargo through to the next round. joe?
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>> markets pulling back. >> ask not for whom the bell tolls. cyprus it tolls for thee. eu setting a monday deadline to secure a bailout or risk financial collapse that could push it out of the eurozone. >> a messy divorce spilling into. the third hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ time marchs on ♪ for whom the bell tolls >> welcome back. >> we've got everything. >> we do. first in business. >> is this for whom the bell
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tolls? i get it. i get it. >> okay. our guest host this morning, roger altman of evercorp. partners. and chief investment strategist john stolftus. >> why do you have all those letters? >> it was the way it was originally spelled. >> wouldn't it be easier if it was spelled phonetically. >> you sure know how to hurt a guy. >> altman. >> it's easy. >> yeah, it's easy. first your morning headlines. starting with cyprus, lawmakers preparing to vote on a series of bills aimed at striking a bailout deal. this comes after talks with russia collapsed. the eu is threatened to withdraw its bailout offer if no deal is finalized by this monday.
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we'll talk to michelle caruso cabrera. in corporate news, today is the end of the 45-day go-shop period for dell. dell and silverlake announced $24.4 billion buyout bid last month. roger altman could tell us everything about this but you would have to kill us if you told us. >> you don't have to worry because i won't. >> because he's representing the company. >> but just knowing what you know makes me think i wish i knew what you know. but we'll never know. >> i don't know as much as you do about lululemon. >> tiffany getting a post. posting better than expected quarterly earnings. why not get a check on the markets this morning. green arrows are there. they have been building. dow futures up 38 points above fair value. s&p up by just over 3.5 points.
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overseas in asia, nikkei took a tumble on concerns about what's happening in cyprus. a loss of 2.3%. in europe, this morning, things have been a little more muted. ftse is trading higher. >> it's up 14 points. cac is slightly lower. dax is slightly lower. you are not talking about much considering all the things the people have been saying about the european union. roger altman and john stoltfus. john, your thoughts? >> i think it's part and parcel of the process of recovery in the european monetary union. this type of event to occur that we have seen over the weekend and the way things are unfolding, really commonplace in a recovery process. just another speed bump in the road. it isn't -- is it a threat in
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the immediate moment? most certainly is. it will rock the markets somewhat. but i think the markets have already digested and moving forward. >> you kind of agreed with that in the last hour. >> largely. >> we will probably see where things go from here. if it is not cyprus catching your attention, what is? >> what i think is that the effects of quantitative easing, the effects of all the twist operations are actually generating better fund mentals. in effect, what ben bernanke has done is primed the well. we are at a point where we're beginning to really benefit from it, whether it's coming from jobs, improve. s in housing, overall improvements in manufacturing, in services. this is a recovery process that is becoming more sustainable. >> do you think this recovery is for real? is it starting to take hold this time around? >> i would say yes.
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i think the biggest story out there in terms of markets as a whole is the degree to which my view at least, the equity markets are looking ahead towards the end of the year andally part of next year and seeing a transition onto a higher growth condition. fundamentally what i think is going on is the -- what i'll call the row good enough reinhart period. it will be five years since the the lehman collapse is coming to an end. i think they were completely right on their theory in how these rare financially induced recessions are much more painful, longer than traditional recessions. now the markets see the the end of the period. and i think that we'll be moving into a period where the surprise are likely to be on the up side, not the down side driven by housing, oil, gas, manufacturing, the end of household deleveraging. so that's what i think the
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markets are saying. and i think it's the biggest story out there. >> i want to believe all of that. it makes me feel better to think along those ways. fedex and caterpillar this week worrying about some of the global growth constraints or declines in their sales numbers. you hear things like that. you hear people worried whether or not the housing recovery is for real. >> first of all, if you look at reasonable quality you can see they have been pretty consistently marked up. most forecasts are around 3%. some are above 3%. we're currently growing 1.5. and over this five-year period we haven't done better than 2% over the whole period. we're below 2%. that's a big move up. some people, by the way, think we will get to 3.5% by mid 2014. and we will see a three-year period, something like that, 14, 15, 16 of growth in that area.
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that's a big development. i think it's likely. right now of course we're not there. and there are going to be all kinds of bumps. obviously not every company will participate to that degree. but i think that's becoming the consensus, becky. that's the reason i think the market is powering forward. >> you know, john, roger has written extensively about this too. just the column about how we have done the cuts. it is better than we think it is. if the growth picture kicks in. bernanke is still worried. doesn't want to pull back just yet. >> i think the real economy is poised to do that. but at this point i think ben bernanke has some of the best data around and consider weakness still within the
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system. it still needs support. it will take off the training wheels a little bit earlier than many expect. >> before the end of this year? >> not before the end of this year. i think it's early next year. but i think the reality is we have a recovery in progress. it still requires the fed chairman riding shotgun on the economy. >> you see all of this is consistent. so if the fed were to fundamentally begin to wind down q can e at the end of this year, beginning of next year that, would be consistent with the transition in economy that we're talking about here. and that all fits. >> does the market continue to propel -- does the market continue to push forward if the fed pulls back because of the real economy going? is that a reason to keep pushing stocks higher? >> i think one of the reasons stocks are moving higher, on a relative valuation basis relative to what fixed income is yielding and where price are in
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the bond market would state equities have more room to the up side. as the economy comes across to support that that will help equities move higher. >> would you tell people to sell their bond funds? >> i would say trim exposure. taking profits where possible within bonds. elimination of bond positions, not necessarily. >> putting money to work in your 401(k). >> i would be opting with dividend stocks with an opportunity to grow the dividends and for capital appreciation versus fixed income. >> we will continue this conversation, both john and roger sticking around for the rest of the program. coming up, wilbur ross. when ireland was in trouble he swooped in and bought banks.
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is he doing anything in cypress? >> check out the market indicator. roger altman. one of the most urbane, elegant, distinguished dudes that i know. you're a big country music fan. so are we here at this table. so we will play country leading for the next hour in honor of roger. with the fidelity guided portfolio summary, you choose which accounts to track and use fidelity's analytics to spot trends, gain insights, and figure out what you want to do next. all in one place. i'm meredith stoddard and i helped create the fidelity guided portfolio summary. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. [ construction sounds ] ♪ [ watch ticking ] [ engine revs ]
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>> welcome back to "squawk box", everyone. futures right now are indicated higher. this morning those dow futures up 35 points above fair value. s&p by over three. among the stocks we've been keeping an eye on is nike. margins increased and that's a big deal. that's the first time it's happened after eight quarters of declines. also, it was talking about its apparel and shoes. all good news. up 8%. >> the board. >> fighting ducks can beat
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cowboys? >> back to the top story of the morning. cyprus on the brink of financial disaster. michelle caruso-cabrera joins us again. it's windy over there. hey, michelle. >> hey there, joe. the minister of finance came home empty handed from russia last night. they're working on plan c how they will come up with $5.8 billion to bail out their banks. right now we believe a draft is being put together to submit to the european partners. one includes winding down one of the weakest banks here. protests 100 yards that way. they're concerned about losing their jobs. they have to come up with with a resolution by monday. it could lead to total financial collapse. because the banks close there's
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a terrible cash shortage at this point. gas stations, for example, are only accepting cash because their suppliers are insisting they pay cash up front. we spent a lot of time this morning with one gas station owner describing the situation for us. he said i used to get two shipments a week. got it on friday. paid at the end of the month. everything was fine. now i collect all my cash, call my supplier, he comes the the next morning, and i pay him up front to resupply every day. he allows visa transactions or credit card transactions up to 30 euros. he said he's been in business 60 years and he has clients and customers that have been around so long he doesn't want to disappoint them. >> our company will bring us fuel only with cash. we try to collect as much cash as we can so we can bring fuel and not close the station.
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>> numerous business owners tell us they're not getting paid because you can't do any kind of big transactions without the banks being open, guys. it's pretty frustrating. they have to come up with something. we hope there's a vote in parliament today to get this resolved. back to you. >> michelle, thank you. missing out on on the -- it's okay. basketball. wilbur ross of w.l. ross and company. no stranger to banking troubles. he was port of the consortium that turned around the bank of ire land. when it started happening, did it cross your mind? >> i don't think we'll do anything with cyprus. we have been looking at greece. this is a blip on the road in greece. cyprus is not a place we would go into because the banking system is quite artificial with
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all the money out of russia. total bank assets are nine times as big as the entire gdp of the country. so that just tells you right off the bat how artificial it is. and all that extra cash is what caused the trouble. they had to find a place to put it because it was all purchased money. they bought a lot of greek debt. when greece got into trouble they doubled down. they bet wrong. so that's what led to this crisis. >> corzine is not in cyprus, has he? we haven't seen him around much. so you already knew all this stuff, wilbur. that little dissertation, you were familiar with everything that was already happening there? >> well, we were a little bit familiar with cyprus. because part of our studying about greece, some of our banks have business there.
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there are quite a few loans. so that might be a little bit from the illiquidity in cyprus. but it is less than one half of 1% of the gdp of europe. total obligations of cyprus are something like 27 billion euros. the numbers just aren't big enough for anybody other than a few russian oligarks to worry about. >> when you say this is a blip in the road for greece as an investment, does that mean you're not investing there or there is a better opportunity because things shape up and you get better prices? >> it may well be we getter a better price as a result of the confusing. right now we're waiting for things to settle in in greece. i think we told but this tough
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tax stuff that the greek government is doing. they hired 1,000 forensic accountants to go after high rollers and compare their bank remittances to their tax returns. they are probably going to take 10 or 20, throw them in jail for a while and rye to see if that will encourage voluntary compliance. to me the big hurdle is can the greek government get greeks to start paying tax. >> hey, wilbur, would it be difficult for you to paint a really scary scenario that would come from cyprus and the rest of the eu? are you worried it could spread or is it too small? >> this is the first time a government has reneged on the 100,000 euro guaranteed deposit scheme. that's a little bit scary.
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because there's no bank in the whole world, including the ones we're involved in, that can withstand the real brunt. all banks tend to bother short, lend long. so to the degree it spreads, that could be a serious problem. but as far as i can see it has not led to panic at the depositors in any of the peripheral conditions. >> is anything else that we're not watching imminent in europe that you can tell? do we need to put it back on the front burner? >> well, i think it needs to stay on the front burner bras of the political risks. you have merkel coming into an election you have uncertainties about the regime in spain. you've got problems all over the place politically. so i think where the last year was mainly a risk of banks and economics, to the degree there's a european risk this year i
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think it's more political. >> we always call you a vulture. in this country where the markets have done, is there anything attractive left in the united states for you? >> well, i would rather share the view that roger had a bit earlier. i think if anything the economy is more likely to accelerate in 2014. so i don't think things are grotesquely overvalued in terms of equity. where i would be very weary would be bonds. if the 10-year treasury reverts back just to its average yield from 2000 through 2010, do you know how much it will go down? 23%. 23%. that's a huge risk. so we've been advising friends it's not worth getting a few extra basis points to take that kind of down side risk for a year or two while bernanke keeps
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this quantitative easing going. we're recommending people not be in long-term debt of any kind. instead, we're urging our companies to borrow as much long-term fixed money as they can. >> and housing -- since the last time you've been on, we seemed like we were getting just amount more anecdotal evidence and things are starting to pick up. still a long way to go? is that fair? >> we have a long way to go. but i think the biggest problems are getting out of the way. i think we need to get rid of the free show going on in congress over the budget and all this stuff. assuming that that settles down, i think the only other big risk is some of the states are starting to feel very frisky again in terms of raising taxes. you saw what new york just did.
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there were a couple others that would allow to us put in more taxes. that could be a thing that would be a slowdown. >> all right. >> and the last is what will the obama administration do about shale, gas, and oil. my assumption is they will start granting export licenses. my assumption is they're not going to put in draconian measures that will interfere with the shale. to me that's the "game change"er. >> wilbur ross, another edition of your house. you built that big tall building. i've used that before. i have to come up with some new stuff. >> you need a new line, new music. >> are you doing the the brackets? did you do anything with basketball. you're tennis. all right. thank you. >> thanks, joe. thanks, becky. >> thank you, wilbur. when we come back, we'll talk about what energy drinks and chip makers have in common.
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monster stocks down 4.3%. micron said its outlook for memory chip prices is improving. when we come back, more about cyprus, the fed, positive economic statistics. steve and rick will talk about the biggest market movers. could a divorce take one of the country's richest men? a story ripped straight from the headlines. [ male announcer ] this is joe woods' first day of work.
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the first thing is the fed chairman is getting more flack from his right or the hawkish side. and there was a rise in dissent. i don't know that specifically. >> louder or more people? >> i think there's more dissent and more people. or the people making noises before are a little bit louder where he had to concede something with them. did he concede anything meaningful. there were two concessions on wednesday. the first was a line in the statement about kind of the cost section. the second was in his press conference he said not once but twice that the fed will vary purchases with economic data and as results come in. that speaks if it's not the sold old guys. there's more to it than that to the point where they had to make some form of concession. now, did he really concede?
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i think he's biding for time. let the data come out. >> we're not turning the spigot on, turning it off. it will be graduated. >> that's a concession to the hawks, by the way. what the initial plan was, boom, we're going to go and have full-out qe until we hit certain metrics. >> right. >> he's redirecting and maybe concession. if this better economic data turns out to be true, i think the varying is more like a summertime event rather than a fall event. >> when do we fell like we may get through the swing swoon. >> in response to my question, i hear six good months of employment data. >> how far in are we? >> two or three months. and you may get one month but it has to snap back. he is really worried about the idea there's this problem in the seasonality that it might be overstating the strength. >> so you're talking july or august?
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>> i think it's june. jackson hole setting up to be a consequential time period. it may be they talk about that before that. >> how does the market react? if all of a sudden they go from 85 to 65 or 65 or 55. something like that. does the market -- it's the terminal end rate problem. as soon as the fed starts to act does the market begin to price in the terminal point, rick? that's what he's going to be worried about here. >> you know, steve. i can't get involved in this discussion. it's ridiculous. i look at the markets and tell you what the market is doing. but if you can can per receive how a market many react when the subsidy is removed.
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the markets in the u.s. used to be the envy because it used to take care of this all by itself. >> it never did. >> that's the dilution of nostalgia, rick. >> the delusion is do they really have control over anything. >> this is the same how to game out how the market will take it if the fed cuts a quarter. >> no. we're living the gardener. i want to know how many more peter sellers will be running around with big brief cases telling people how the markets are going to react. >> rick, it's what we did all the time. >> i'm bored with this argument. but i do want to ask you -- >> just my side? not rick's side? >> yeah. were you watching earlier when i was reading about the the universe that it inflated a
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trillion trillion trillion fold. i said that was more than bernanke. >> i did not see it. >> roger, you were watching yesterday, right? what was it you were talking about yesterday? >> you referred back to one of your guests and what they said about cyprus. >> mark wolf. wilbur ross. >> steve a careful viewerer most of the team. >> do you have sirius xm? >> i do. >> i have to give steve credit. he usually knows what we have been talking about. trillion trillion trillion. >> i like wilbur ross's comment. >> thanks for watching, rick. >> there's something going on that wilbur said that i find fascinating. smart people who understand markets like ross, a normalization of interest rates is going to have a catastrophic
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impact potentially on anything starting to become better globally. but here's the issue -- let me talk will you, for crying out loud. >> he never finishes a sentence. >> blah, blah, blah, blah pwhrarbgs. . >> two minutes. >> i never know what he's saying. >> he never gets to hear the end. >> wilbur ross is worried about normalization. and i found it fascinating. here we are looking at japanese kwreldz at 56%. >> superman is here to talk about a messy divorce. >> happy friday, guys. >> happy friday. can i call you clark kent? you've heard that before, right? harold hamm how much money does he have? >> number 35 in america. $11 billion. he owns around 68% of continental resources, the big
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fracking leaders in the country. >> what? >> fracking. no fracking jokes. >> they do frack. >> yeah. they're a big leader in the oil field. continental issued a statement saying, harold ahamm announced that a petition for divorce is pending. the matter is private. has not and is not anticipated to have any impact or effect on the company's business or operations. we can talk about that in moment. suean alleged harold was having an affair that she discovered in 2010 prompting her to later file for divorce. this would be the most expensive divorce in history. they have been married since 1988. the value is not only created
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during this marriage but in the last five or seven years. she worked for the company. she posted in marketing. >> second wife already? >> he was divorced in 1987. >> this was already sort of the trophy wife. >> well, i wouldn't say that. but it was his second marriage. >> he married her in 1988. >> i think she's in her 50s. >> she worked for the company. so maybe he knew this woman. >> it's possible. i don't know what the history is. >> that's what we need to know. keep going. >> oklahoma is an equitable distribution state. the court will determine what's fair not necessarily what is equal. the most expenses divorces, my old boss, rupert and anna murdoch. bernie and slavic eckel stone. and the khashoggis.
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>> how old is the girlfriend? >> no idea. and i don't know if there was a girlfriend. it's an allegation in a court document that has allegedly been sealed? >> half plus seven or half minus seven? >> the judge can determine -- he can say, look, your life doesn't get better at 2 billion to the wife versus 1 billion. >> you don't have all the details. but there was no prenup. >> here's the issue. most divorces result in the sale of shares. look at steve win. it was designed so he and she, elaine, his previous wife, would not have to sell shares. but it turns out they wanted, in the end to sell the shares. when the company says this is not going to impact the business, this i think will inevitably result in some share sales. >> it's 2013, robert. when did she filed?
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>> she filed in 2010. a very strange thing. two prior filings to that divorce. first they filed in '05. they pulled it back. he filed. they pulled it back. a very temp pestuous relationship. >> he was romney's guy. >> yeah. we didn't know anything during the campaign. it comes out now. >> that's a good theory. yeah. >> well, i'm just saying. >> all right. >> just saying. >> thank you. will you find out some other stuff. >> i will. >> i'm going with half minus seven. >> coming up, a lot of housing data next week. what to expect and what could derail the housing recovery. with fidelity's new options platform, we've completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies...
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traditionally the most wonderful time of the career for the housing industry. the spring selling season. former assistant secretary for housing and former housing commissioner. and what we keep saying, things are definitely much better. but if you just compare -- if you compare it to where we were, we still have so far to go. was that fake what we had before? we'll never really have that again? >> yeah. look, one thing we all know is
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that the enthusiasm for home ownership went way too far. so the peak housing era of 2005 through 2007, those couple years prousd some very dangerous characteristics we can't allow to ever come back. but the market is clearly in proving. household formation in 2012 was a couple hundred thousand higher than most analysts expected. so it's accelerating more rapidly than most anybody expected at this point in time. >> i was trying to figure out how to ask the question. on a scale of 1 to 10, where are we? the last three probably weren't real anyway. on a scale of 1 to 7, where are we? >> i would say we're at a five. really? we're that good. starts aren't anywhere near where they were. >> that's part of the issue. we have inventory of sales down to 4 1/2 months, down from 9
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months in 2010. there aren't enough homes available. you see in places like phoenix, a 22% year over year home price appreciation. that's not a normal recovery. that's really reflecting a lack of inventory. >> so if we were -- what's the interest rate that you can live with in the future, the max numb that you think before we start seeing things slow a little bit? >> you know, rates are going to stay low. it's funny. i was listen to go wilbur ross's piece. >> you were watching too? >> yes, absolutely. always watch. >> thank you. >> but the real question is here does a spike event that brings rates to 4% or even 4.25% in the next 12 months to 18 months, we're looking at record low interest rates. it will effect refinancing. but with home purchasing, household formation and interest
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rates below 5% we would have laughed about this opportunity six or seven years ago thinking that rates would ever be this low. yeah. they may cause an impact to people looking to refinance, home equity lines, those kinds of borrowers. but in the purchase market we think the market can easily withstand a 4% rate which is what we forecast for year end. that would be up from 3.5. >> can we get rid of mortgage deductibility? will you sign off on that? >> our own position is everything has to be on the table. we have $17 trillion deficit. we're spending a trillion more than we take in every year. everything has to be on the table. one thing i would suggest is that there are tipping points to everything. in the middle class segment people between $100,000 to $250,000 in home purchase price, mortgage interest makes sense to the middle class borrowers.
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and the question is do they count that when they look to buy a home versus rent. people stopping buying altogether. if it has an impact, how does that impact construction? has to be on the table. it has to be something we take in context with the broader picture. >> help us get rid of freddie and fannie some day too. put something together for me, will you? >> keep in mind, while we sit around and vilify freddie and fannie. >> see you love them. that's a shock. >> i don't. i think we ought to go away from them. but we need liquidity to ensure there's capital. >> can't do it now. especially now. all right. great hair. good looking man. and you watch, unlike some other people that work here. anyway, thanks, dave. >> you may not watch for a few
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minutes when you walk to get makeup. when we come back, we'll get cramer's stocks to watch and march madness picks. stick around. "squawk" will be right back. no they don't. hey son. have fun tonight. ♪ ♪ back against the wall ♪ ain't nothin to me ♪ ain't nothin to me [ crowd murmurs ] hey! ♪ [ howls ] ♪
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welcome back, everybody. let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer and scott wapner is with us. jim, the big question on joe's mind has been did you pick harvard? >> no, i was on twitte twitter @jimcramer admitting that the lobos. what am i going to do? hello? >> it was a hard pick to make. you have to love tommy. you can't go with your heart. harvard, that's even harder, a 14 and three. shack picked them. have you seen the bracket? is there an exracer mark there? >> he was 14 and 2. >> i was 14 and 2, too, guys. i lost because of boone on oklahoma state and -- and
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harvard. those were the only two. >> what do you think about lasalle today against kansas state? a little upset. >> a little philly upset. >> you're going with your heart there. i would have done that with your alma mater. >> my alma mater is so bad, but everyone knew they were good this year and i just -- it's just bad. if arizona beats them i'm right back if. >> there will be a ton of upsets. >> anything -- nike was beautiful last night. i really felt they answered the china problem and talk about getting near the inventory. tiffany is an odd one because it's being bought with this quiet fun has been accumulating. i know their guidance wasn't that good and this is one of those where maybe it's not as bad as it used to be and that's where you've got to be. >> okay. very good, gentlemen. >> hold on just a second. it's louisville versus miami and
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then louisville won. i just got that. i got the insider trading. >> i think miami will win. >> no, no, no! >> it's the most wide-open tournament i can remember. >> that's a cool thing. i was afraid to take -- last year, i didn't take kentucky, and i blew it. louisville is good, but i don't think we know this year. >> have a great weekend. >> you, too. my eyes -- i'm going to need to watch another 16 games. >> clockwork orange. >> coming up, we'll get the last word on europe and the markets and then on monday, tune in to squawk box for an event that could move the markets. monday is the eu deadline for cyprus to secure a bailout and without emergency financing, the small island nation could be forced out of the eurozone and forced out of the eurozone and possible that it could happen.
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last week, and he said leveraged buyouts were unfair because the management has more information and that's why you see so many things happening with dell. i know you can't talk about dell, but the management is being unfair. what do you think? >> he talked about management buyout, right? i don't think they have to be unfair if -- if the board of directors which usually forms a special committee of the board in the context of receiving an offer from the management follows a series of pretty strict guideline, and i've seen that happen the good way. in other words, leveling the playing field and probably their examples were it hasn't happened as mr. cooperman said. they're not, by their nature, unfair. >> if the board treats the -- puts the management at arm's length, the management offer runs an aggressive process to solicit other proposals either before signing up the management deal or afterwards and ensures that any other parties have the same infti
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