tv Mad Money CNBC March 25, 2013 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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patience. and today was just one more example. a day when the dow gained 91 points. the s&p climbed.27% and the nasdaq advanced .70. the market in short fails to behave as if it's europe with its cyprus fiasco, or as if it's china with its endless, is it boom? is it bust chatter? it's almost as if we're back in the old days. before we became so weak -- and yet so intertwined, and all we had to do was look how overseas markets were faring and we would know how we would do for the day pretty much before we opened. yet there's still plenty of
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funds living in yester year prophesying doom on the radar screen. >> the house of pain! >> which is actually quite a fitting place to begin our game plan for next week because monday is the deadline for cyprus to come up with a plan suitable to the european and imf banking authorities in order to get desperately needed bailout funds. now understand we are approaching the end of the quarter and the hedge funds behind the averages desperately need this market to come down and come down now! they are furious that the market doesn't want to respond to the cyprus challenge. they don't understand how we could end up on a positive note when something like bank deposits will be taxed as a way to raise money.
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they don't understand why investors here like you and me aren't more worried that the authorities there are willing to risk bank runs in spain or italy because of this hair-brain scheme. at this stage they would gladly pay for rioters in the streets of cyprus if we can get the media to accentuate today and link cyprus to the rest of europe and the united states, even if the european authority recognize that is the issue is that banks are safe havens for russian laundered money! the short sellers, they would at least pay cash for the numbers to line up. once they get some runs going leads me to the simple conclusion that intellectually short-sellers will do the best to say whatever resolution is arrived at or not arrived at, we have got the dreaded are you ready scheme daddy lehman brothers on our hands! wow. yes, they are invoking lehman. that's what they're doing. why lehman brothers? because you know what? lehman is code for thermal nuclear financial war.
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it was the line drawn in the sand because the regulators had had enough with the bailouts. remember that? what people didn't realize was that lehman brothers at that very moment was the biggest bank in the world. now they want to say that the little cyprus banks, bigger than cyprus itself, but the bigger cyprus bailout that taxes depositors is a line in the sand to cause a meltdown like synergy, they love irony. i'm telling you right here, right now, it won't. it didn't cause one last monday when people were unprepared for it then and it won't cause one this monday when people are prepared for it. what a terrible bailout it is. bye, bye, bye. i know everything pails in comparison to cyprus, but earnings did make or break stocks with nike to the upside and the fantastic quarter last night or oracle to the downside when it got crushed for a hideous quarter known for the horrendous number that is the company delivered. you know what? we'll have to pay close
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attention to earnings, even with cyprus, and that leaves us with dollar general, dg. it reports monday. last time dg spoke the company spoke about making less money per sale, that's the gross margin thing, and it was obliterated. the stock is in a comeback nicely above the horrific conference call we had last time. and that's the theme of this market, okay? here's the theme of next week and for all of 2013 so far. you screw up, you pay the price, then the company readjusts, does better and which, by the way, guess what? i think oracle is going to do next quarter, so don't blind yourself to the comeback, even that woeful situation, this is stephanie link and i, stephanie works with me, she says, listen, this is the level. by the way, oracle has always bounced back from these debacles, but i think dollar general has had too big of a run.
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and the stock can bounce back if the quarter is good but not good enough. now, tuesday, we have big news in the form of durable goods. i usually don't talk about these but bear with me. in february new home sales, given the caterpillar gave us a downbeat picture of its sales for february, many people are betting that the durable goods number could be a not-so-hot one, but autos, appliances, airplanes, they are all very strong, so i bet this figure plus a fabulous home sales number make us forget about cyprus. yes, by tuesday, i am telling you, we will be more worried about miley cyrus than we'll be about unsmiley cyprus! you know what i'm going to do on tuesday just to stick it to everybody? i'm going to recommend cyprus semiconductor, drive the point home. seriously. we forget how powerful the housing can be. and that will also be driven home by the release of tuesday
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of the 20-city index, gets a ton of ink, even if it is very late representing january's numbers. we know from listening to lenar and k.b. holmes that housing prices jump in january and february. i expect to announce it on "squawk on the street," which i co-host in case you didn't know that. wednesday we hear from a company -- when i first heard the name, i thought it would give a rival to recreational equipment. it was a mt. everest thing by bluff. it is $5 above dollar general. you have to go to one of these. this one is up 30% this year alone. come here after the close, i bet after that run some will be disappointed. that's how it always works, right? plus, there's a chance to have a secondary like the one last month with share prices at $35 and change.
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let's hope that happens because the stock is now at $41.50. that was one of the most successful stocks of the era. i won't discount the closing price, maybe four below, it's got to, have it has the best price trajectory of any right now. this is a couple we stood behind for ages saying they paid with the 3.8% deal and the stock has been creeping up. each time the stock gets hammered the analysts don't like it. why? there's been no real small business quote, so be careful. however, it's been a terrific buy after the quarter every time. finally, very controversial, we have pbh, remember that old one? you know how much we like the ceo. the street's turned against pvh, though. they are worried about the end of mortigo into the family of pvh brands. i think that's a mistake to turn on pvh. i would buy some before and after the quarter beginning with this, because when it reports, what we are going to find out that mortico brings to pvh that whole part of calvin klein it didn't have. it has the whole family of calvin klein brands.
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i think that's going to produce fabulous results for pvh. thursday, last training day, because of the good friday holiday. and it's got a bunch of what i call fulcrum names, names that can move a lot of stuff reporting. meaning some of these companies could actually impact many sectors, and the first is act censure. we are going to be all ears because this consulting segment has become a real battleground with dueling companies all over the place taking each other down. yeah. oracle, hewlett-packard, sap, they are all sniping on who is doing well. last time accenture reported it was not a good number, but the company stock rallied anyway. given the weakness and the rest
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of the group, i would rather ream the register ahead of the quarter and then you can go back. then there's the earnings from the most controversial company that people can't stop talking about, i don't have one, so it does not affect me, but it may affect you so i'm talking about this, the new blackberry. the new blackberry went on sale today. i think blackberry is a lot like best buy and bed bath and to a certain hewlett-packard. i call it the three b's, and you probably won't get that on the show, but that's okay. my nephew likes the show and there's more to it. anyway. those were all left for dead, okay? at leopard dead stocks, i would be a buyer of blackberry thinking the franchise is intact. what makes me intrigued? it got hammered today as word got out that the launch was soft. now, what is this about -- we have had five minutes of launch. that's okay, we'll take advantage of it. buy some weakness.
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keep in mind that thursday is the last day of the amazingly positive quarter. and you could see offensive blind stocks to preserve not knocking the stocks down. we were able to separate ourself from europe this week and i think the pattern stays that way, meaning you can get a terrific buying opportunity if the bears make a big stink about cyprus. take it. buy some five below, buy from pvh, get ready to pull the trigger on paychecks, dollar general and yes, blackberry. let's start with questions and go with mike in texas. mike? >> caller: hey, cramer, i want to say everything is bigger in texas, ba-ba-boo-yah. >> i'm liking that boo-yah. >> caller: just a quick question about tepco, they got crushed two quarters in a row now.
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they got rushed on revenue, still a waiting opportunity or -- >> i hated that conference call. i hated that call. i was on that conference call and said, man, this is just bad news. and we had him last time. you were in the penalty box, you missed in the penalty box, they are now in -- we have to wait two quarters before we buy this company. that's how bad that quarter was, it was bad. we were able to shrug it off this week, but keep your eye on cyprus monday. if the bears bring the market down, i think you've got to consider a buying opportunity. "mad money" will be right back. >> coming up, sensational spec? from facebook to amazon, caterpillar and home depot, some of the country's top companies rely on this technology titan, it is not apple and it's not google, but its cloud offerings could be your ticket to returns in 2013. stick around to see if it belongs in your portfolio.
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and later, slick situation? cramer's been playing "mad money" oligopoly, and he just might have saved the best for last. the renaissance has lit a fire under the refiners, but which stands out above the crowd? all coming up on "mad money." have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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an enterprise software firm with a variety of products to ensure that business technologies work the way they should. i had to save this one for friday because with the stock at $12 and change, compuware is as speculative as they come, which means risky. this is not what you put in your retirement account or it is not a stock you buy with money that you can't afford to lose. but even though compuware is a high-risk, i wouldn't talk about the potential for big awards. back in the '70s when it was trading at the $9 level, it caught this from elliott management that wanted me to take the company private. fast forward to january 25 and we were rejecting elliott's offer saying it, quote, significantly undervalues the company. however, they are being advised by goldman sachs and said the company will, quote, carefully review and evaluate any credible offer it receives. including from elliott to deliver full value to its shareholders. translation?
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compuware is on the block. hasn't been a sale, they just want more money. i can see why these guys are intrigued as compuware is just $70 million in debt and generated $333 million in the past few months. that's exactly what the private equity firms like, borrow big time, do a payout and still leverage. there's always the possibility that they up their bid, hence why the stock has been on a bit of a roll lately, but as you solely because of the fundamentals, we don't do that. compuware has a number of things going for it. the very day, the same day they rejected are it they did something very clever and initiated a 50-cent dividend. at these levels you rarely see a tax hike with that payout, and i think it is a sign of management's bullishness to commit to such a big dividend. congress also a turn-around story. back in december 1999 at the high-tech bubble, this was a $30
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stock. i remember this. it was -- when i started trading stocks it was a big technique. then for the next years he went lower and lower and lower. or are we bottoming at four bucks and change. remember that? even after its recent run adware in 1999, but in recent years it made a number of moves to transform itself back. compuware is expanding quite rapidly. there's the cash cow for the company. then there's the comp management where they perform solution
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systems to test the mobile or cloud. there's the print. they have a rapid develop for -- and last but not least there's this thing called the cloud-based platform that enables companies to have a secure online communications with external audiences like customers, big customers, suppliers. in the latest it was up an 18% clip. many of these come from the higher growth businesses. in the next fiscal year to start in april, that figure will easily surpass the 50% mark. this is not the slow growth comp of two or three years ago. they are a much different company much more keyed to the
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latest trek clouds. mobile cloud compute it. that's their rapidly cloud based engagement platform. and you can see they do a possible ipo, 20% in shares. within 12 months of the ipo, management plans to spin off the last into your share owners. we are getting a much better evaluation on its own while the remainder will focus on cutting costs in its core business. in the meantime, the company already has a plan to shave off $60 million in non-core operational expenses over the next three years with $20 million which will be cut in april. cpwr is a tech spec to give you multiple ways to win. even multiple private equity players get into a bidding war with a 4% yield. do you cushion it under the stock?
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and you have the catalyst of the spinoff. buy, buy, buy! keep in mind, this is still a highly speculative stock selling times next year's earnings, very steep. it's already been bit up based on the type of rumors. limit rumors and wait for the pullback before you pull the trigger. after the break, i'll try to make you more money. coming up, slick situation? cramer has been playing "mad money" oligopoly to find those a families left in the competition in the dust, and he may have saved the hardest for last. and america's renaissance lit a fire turned refineries. the witch stands out above the crowd.
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all week we've been putting a profitable new spin on an old board game here on "mad money." i'm talking about monopoly. the game that taught me a lot about business as a kid, including the valuable fact that if you act like a baby every time you lose, other people will often let you win. before they spare themselves the
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agida. we invented our own real world monopoly since general monopoly situation where is a single company runs the industry and squeezes customers for every penny they are worth, they have been banned both in law and in practice for over a century. now, here on "mad money" we play oligopoly, which is the next best thing. when you find an honest to goodness old oligopoly, remember, this is an industry controlled by a small number of players and protected against new competition coming to the marketplace. that arrangement gives existing players enormous pricing power. we have talked about this with the airlines where my favorite right now are us airways for its merger with amr as well as spirit airlines for the ultra low cost growth play. people at jim cramer on twitter,
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ask the other airlines, those are the ones i like the best. the rental care oligopoly, hertz and railroads where i favor the short line. no, i don't, i favor norfolk southern. that's for a coal rebound. and especially kansas city southern for shale and autos up from mexico. and one more sector to put on the oligopoly board and that's the refiners. this may seem like an industry with too many players to be an oligopoly, cvr, then you have the big integrated oils with the internal refineries, exxon mobil, chevron, for the moment, hess. however, the nature of the refining business is such that it is almost impossible for the new competitor to break into the industry. you have existing refineries and that's it. if you happen to be an incumbent
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refinery, you'll do very well. why is this industry so protected from competition? for starters, the united states is an expired industry. from the environmental perspective, it is hard to construct a new refinery. just getting a permit from the government can take many years, especially since nobody wants a refinery in their backyard. it can take two to three years when already cited or the time frame to do the build-out. that's why a refinery has not been built in the united states since 1976 and why you rarely see any large scale expansions of existing refineries because it is tough to invest in a business to wait six years before you get paid back. they are protected from outside competition and the way the industry works they are protected from each other. since no one spends billions to undercut the others on price, hey, there's not any price wars. and to me that's exactly what we look for in a slap happy oligopoly. let me throw in the fact in the
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last three years, we have seen, and this is why it's so profitable, we have seen an explosion in domestic oil and gas production. the shale fines, many people have been surprised by the newfound oil that the price at the pump has not come down and gotten cheaper. you know why that hasn't happened? one of the big reasons is that the gains from our cheap domestic oil are being captured by the refiners. yeah, they are not -- they don't have to pass those savings on to the consumer. they can keep the profits m. of our refineries make a killing off the high price of globaling and the lower price of crude based on prices at the big pipeline hub in oklahoma. the west texas price is now at $93 a barrel while the global crude price is $108. that's a $15 spread. the reason for the difference is simple, much of the newfound production basically trapped in
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the middle of the continent from the base in texas, or the alberta oil keystone in canada. we don't have the capacity to ship this oil to the coast where it could be exported at the higher rent price or look, they can refine it but they are getting the best price possible sending it overseas. the infrastructure is years behind what's necessary, so what happens is that our refiners, especially in the middle of the country, can buy the low price west text oil at $92 or buy it for much less if the producer has no place to put the stuff at all, which is now often the case. then they turn it into gasoline and can turn it around to sell the gasoline on the $108 barrel price. that may sound like you're being ripped off, but the truth is it is just how business works. once the oil's refined the companies have the right to sell the product anywhere they can, you can't tell them not overseas. and there are plenty of people around the world who will. plus, having access to the cheap domestic oil gives the refiners
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a huge advantage in the marketplace. seven years ago the united states imported 3 million barrels of gasoline a day. now we are exporting 1 million barrels a day and that's just getting the marketplace. the worldwide marketplace. how do we play it? since the beginning of the year phillips 66 and marathon p have outperformed just starting to get access to the cheaper shale oil i'm talking about, coming in via train, barge, whatever they can do. however the refiners in the middle of the continent are the best way to go with the best access to all the newfound oil mostly trapped in the center of the country. with that in mind, my favorite refiner was, we had them on the show and they were fabulous, holly frontier, hfc. this dallas-based company has a terrific longer-term record with best returns on capital employee and benefiting from the fantastic merger from frontier corps in 2011. but even after the miss, investors clambered to push the stock higher.
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in the last two weeks the stock pulled back six points because people think this is going to be lasting. i don't. i think it has come down to viable levels. how about the cbr refinery? it should support a 10% yield, which is a terrific deal and should be aggressive in that payout. here's the bottom line, never forget the power of playing the oligopoly. the domestic refiners are isolated from new competitors among the reasons they are benefiting so much from the explosion in north america oil and production. in business it's great to be the bottleneck. that's exactly what the refiners are, i call it a frontier for growth, and i like cvr refining for yield. i want to go to ed in tennessee. ed? >> caller: it's an honor, sir, was buying heckman at $4 and casey at $8 the way to go? and you do you recommend sanchez for the potential in natural gas?
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>> sanchez doesn't want to be in the gas company, they an oil company. the stock got hammer today, i like that. heckman, it will be a long run there, but dick heckman has your back and he's terrific. ksu, did you make a terrific here? ksu is on fire, okay? they will have a good quarter, the stock is up gigantic and maybe you buy some more. do not be dissuaded where a stock has been, think about where it is going to. j.j. in new york. j.j.? >> caller: a big boo-yah to you, professor. >> how are you doing there, student? >> caller: i'm good. greetings from the ymca near chelsea, new york, new york. >> loving it. >> caller: i have a question on
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petro, cymbal pdh, buy or sell? >> oh, man, this yield -- i go back and forth with my friend matt who writes with me at the street, he says propane stocks are fine. he's done more work on the propane and convinced me they are good, so i'm going to bless petro logistics. rob? >> caller: long time listener, first time caller. >> thank you. >> caller: i got a stock i bought a month ago and i just can't figure it out. it just keeps dropping. i thought it hit the bottom when i got it. this is a big dividend, 60%. everything looks good, so i'm turning to dr. know to help me out here. >> okay. >> caller: first sandridge? >> there's no yield nor the sandridge, but the balance sheet is not good at sandridge. maybe this is the permian, that people feel they don't have as good of assets as -- i do not trust that yield. i point-blank do not trust the yield and i do not like sandridge. the yield is high because it's a red flag. and i am very concerned that that yield is not permanent, so to speak, from the permian. game night on "mad money" and tonight's oligopoly is the refineries.
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>> caller: good, jim. about a year and a half ago you were touting the pipelines, i bought energy pt energy transfer and i know that fell out of favor with you, i bought it at 44 and it's about 48 now, and they just flat out bought out the other company. what do you think about it? >> that's exactly what i was hoping and i own it. it's a disappointing week for the charitable trust. they finally cleaned it up. that's what you wanted. and they are doing it right now. i just didn't get to the promised land with it, my bad. that was my bad. let's go to dan in idaho. please, dan? >> caller: jim, hello from idaho. >> nice, man. >> caller: i have to come out with a big go zags boo-yah. >> why not? >> caller: i'm a bit stifled by stifel financial. >> i'm bullish on the groove.
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i want to be a buyer. let's go to meryl in connecticut, hi, meryl. >> caller: love your show. >> thank you. >> caller: what i want to know is what's going on with blackstone, bx, it's been down every day this week. >> it's only up a dollar from its high, so let's not get too concerned about it. i think it is a buy right here. let's go to joe in wisconsin. joe? >> caller: jim, is this the same jim cramer that wakes up at 3:30 in the morning just to make me money? >> yeah, that's pretty much me, absolutely. >> caller: okay. well, thank you for all that you do. hey, listen, i'm calling about the acadia pharmaceuticals. i bought it in my roth ira at 5. i would like to know what you think is the potential here given the fda potential approval.
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>> i think this parkinson's thing is the real deal. i think you should hold on to it. it's a really terrific speculation. let's go to ed in massachusetts. ed? >> caller: hey, lightning fast boo-yah to you, jim. >> nice. what's going on? >> caller: jim, my stocks hammered cutting the dividend but inside is the buy-in. why do you think of arr? >> i think it's okay. that's the particular way to play that segment. let's go to shawn in illinois, sean? >> caller: hey, cramer how are you? >> i'm fine, how are you? >> caller: i wonder what you think of sprint? >> they compete and it's a good place to be. let's go to van in washington. >> caller: boo-yah, jim? >> booyah. how are you? >> caller: very good. we are not doing well.
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with our f-5 networks. >> yeah, it is between telco and infra for the web. i don't like it here and would rather see you in something more down to earth. why don't you buy some, oh, let me see, if you want to be in that particular segment, i would say do cisco. one nap down and four up. that's what matters. that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round! >> lightning round is sponsored by tdameritrade. a disappointing news of the cyprus and the run of atm came on saturday. saturday i thought miley cyrus was in trouble, this is cyprus. sure enough, the future's up and down big. i get up at 3:55 a.m. i get bombarded by e-mails from bears worldwide, brown bears, black bears, kodiaks, panda bears, even koalas.
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i didn't have time to figure out if i should take a chance on gonzaga. i picked georgetown. nova is still mine. we'll start with a tweet, thank you for the education, thanks for the laughs, #mad money. harlem shake, too. yeah, we did a good one. ♪ >> hi, jim, how you doing? >> real good, how about you? >> i got a cold. >> i'm sorry. have you tried z-pack. it kills you but it is also good. >> when i say bo you say yah. boo! >> yah! >> boo! >> yah! >> heather that works for you, she's a swell gal. >> she went to the u. this is about business. you can learn a heck of a lot from monopoly. confidentially, i like to turn the board over and stomp out of the room in tears if i lost. so i don't blame them for
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before we get to your tweets, time to catch up on some homework. back on february 6th steve in florida called for input on black rock kelso capital, bkcc for all you home gamers. i didn't know it and introduced digging, black rock kelso invests in what are known as middle-market businesses, companies with revenues between $50 and $500 million. the stock yields a 10.4% yield which seems like a red flag, but as you know we find sky high yields a worry, but this is a investment company that trades with the elevated payouts. at the same time, we are a private equity player like black stone, more upside and more predictability.
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next up brett was one of my emeritus with one of the largest networks of assisted living, retirement and alzheimer communities in north america. they care for seniors who can't stay home alone anymore but not in need of nursing care is a stress full-time for everyone involved. the company on some 190 communities leases now is 141, about 30,000 units. i think emeritus is in the baby boom for my generation. did you get an excellent entry point here? let's check your tweets send to @jimcramer on twitter. visited twitter yesterday and had a terrific time. okay, here's the first tweet, tweet like mad. this is from @recruitertrip, who says nordic american tanker, nat, continues it run up almost 10% this week, with above average volume.
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are we looking at a breakout? i think nordic american tanker can take off here, but i don't think it's bad anymore and paving a way for the return and i think the return is coming. so here's one from @midwestkosey. it is too dangerous at these levels. we said it's one of the best 3-d technology and 3-d technology is very important, however it's a rich stock. we can see what happens within oracle, not an expensive shock. i don't want court danger here. here's a tweet from grinta 85859. you're on my twitter feed when i fall asleep, you're on my feed when i wake up, jim, when do you sleep? i have an erratic sleeping pattern, i always have. you'll see me on twitter a lot of odd hours because i'm up odd hours. it is unfathomable, you don't want to be me. the next one is from
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@jake7116322. short interest in line around 6%. stock down past a few days, buying opportunity or stay away? we don't care about the short position but we like the fundamentals. the next one is from @jaymucken. do they have getting back to even for sports? it's about the ravens winning the super bowl. you have to read this book. it's the handbook for the nfl. and how to come back. stay with cramer.
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market purists, you will hate what i'm about to say. so skip it. market purists, you will hate what i'm about to say. so skip it. hey, maybe change the channel, but for everyone else, the decision last night to issue at salessports.com is an inspired move, one i believe will help this stock immeasurably. that's right, i think the split will matter, maybe matter much more than people realize. before you say, come on, cramer, you know a stock splits a cosmetic gesture and an empty
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one at that. it means nothing, doesn't matter. yes, i know all that. i talked about that for years on this show. how many times have i handled questions about the value of stock splits showing you it didn't create value at all. so what's changed? i think salesforce.com's $100 stock is simply a stone, not because of how companies do it, but because of how poorly the security traits. it is footballed around by the community endlessly. crm is a target, one so easily knocked down that i've got to tell you something. you know, it is so easily trashed that perhaps only a 4-for-1 split could do that. i would be surprised if it didn't trade like a ten-pin in a bowler's association tour. after the split i think it will cease to be a frightening stock. it can be downright scary. i always dread the sales report because you know the stock will be up 12 if it's a good number or down 12 at a bad one. and that's not a tangible result. nobody wants to pay 12 bucks the
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day after the report. you feel like a chump immediately. it's frightening! nor do you want to be in a stock to lose 12 points in the blink of an eye. now, sure, if you split it 4-for-1 then the company splits it, then you don't pay up a chump. if it may fall three, that's a level of pain. i think we can handle it. 50 shares of salesforce.com in the mid-70s equals 200 shares at 44. but they are not actually equal if the stock doesn't trade efficiently. you will pay more for it even if it is attached to a fabulous company. i know it is a highly mobile stock, but it doesn't deserve to swing the way it does. not with the kinds of earnings as it trades for a lower multiple than it should because
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of the lack of liquidity. i think whole idea of letting the stock go up without splitting it trying to imitate berkshire hathaway has been a big call for companies. if you are looking at time before the short sellers ruled the earth, he wanted shareholders for life and thought splitting the stock caters to the wrong shareholder to the shareholders chasing hot stocks. that's all well and good, but right now the high-dollar names are like high-wire acts for individual investors. they are needlessly dangerous when the companies are excellent growth enterprises go ahead and laugh at me. a joke that means nothing and the split is a sign of froth. somebody who has watched this company and the stock for a long time, i think it will gain retail inheritance, shake out hedge funds, which was the goal of warren buffett at a different time and make for a better
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