7%. i could not find another investment, there are some stocks over the short-term that have done better, that have done this well over such a long period. it should be said, it's a single pane. steve cohn obviously loved this painting. if you look at the broader art market in general, it actually had a flat to slightly down year last year, where stocks do better. we're talking about over long-term here, once again proves that some paintings are very good long-term investments. >> and is there any rhyme or reason to which paintings are just so valuable? >> it's dead artists, because you can't -- >> but there are a lot of dead artists. >> dead artists are good, but it is basically top examples of top artists. and there are very few of those. it's got to be the right painting from the right year of the right artist. and by nature, those are going to be rare. so we're not talking about the broad market going up that much, but those are the prerequisites for a blockbuster. >> robert, what is steve's track record in terms of art as an

investment? has he bought some great pieces, resold them at a premium? >> he hasn't sold much. he bought the pickled chart while he was running. the damon hearst piece, which rereplar replaced it. and steve cohn buys what he loves and doesn't really care what he pays for it. we'll see over the long-term whether these pieces are good purchases. >> but he's buying on the profile that you'd recommend? >> yes, he is. he is. i'm not crazy about some of the artists. we'll see whether damien hearst over the long-term is considered a great, like picasso. >> i'm amazed you say you think it's very beautiful. can we look at it again? do you think it's very beautiful? >> i do, i do. my mom's an artist, so i have an appreciation. she kind of had me looking at -- >> look at the colors. that's gorgeous. >> i would hang it on my wall. >> i would put it in a vault. >> the wealthy talk about -- >> it's picasso, you can't

expect a degal-like form. >> but to your point, it is the best -- >> it is regarded of as the best examples of one of the greatest artists of all time. the colors in this piece, it's what the wealthy call wall power. that piece, on the wall, it's hard to see here, but on the wall, that just bursts out at you. just like the great warhols. >> i think you would be happier with a vermeer. >> we'll look into that. it's been great. i really enjoyed this hour. that's a special edition of "street signs," as the usual hosts are away. let's get to "closing bell." it's 3:00 on the east coast. thank you, simon. yes, welcome to the "closing bell," where we never charge extra to check a bag here. >> not at all. >> that's just not what we do. i'm bill griffeth at the new york stock exchange. stocks on track to recoup, essentially, what we lost yesterday. >> almost exactly. i'm sue herrera in for maria

bartiromo. so some numbers to watch for in this final hour of trading. you writing this town? here we go. first the dow. its all-time closing high, 14,549.14. >> and we are above that right now. >> let's see if we can hold it. >> we're also keeping watch of the s&p 500. that may be a tougher trick today, to make a new closing all-time high. but we are getting closer to that magic number of 1565.15, which we've yet to surpass since october of 2007. >> so close, so many times, right? >> exactly. >> maybe today. >> we'll see. fingers crossed for the bulls. all of this good news on stocks, but an even bigger bull market right now may be in housing, believe it or not. new data today, the largest price spike in seven years. we'll have a look at what's behind housing's resurgence. >> and it's one of those days where we rallied on the open this morning and haven't given up much of those gains. the dow right now up 93 points.

at the high of the session, the dow was up 108. 15,549 and change is the all-time closing high for the dow, so we're in that area right now. the nasdaq also higher today. that rally putting us up 10 plus points right now at 3246. and the s&p, we're about five points, a little less than five points away from the all-time high, now up nine points at 1565. so we are on all-time high watch in this fine hour of trade, moving back to camera five. this marks the sixth attempt, this month, that the s&p 500 has come within five points of that closing high. it's been teasing us all this time. maybe sixth time is the charm. >> we'll see. it feels like it down here. the mood is the right mood, i think. so in today's "closing bell" exchange, joining us, carol roth, cnbc contributor from intercap merchant partners. jeff kleintop from lpl financial, our own rick santelli, and paul shotts from heritage capital as well.

carol, i'm going to start with you. it does have a good feel today. we seem to be brushing off some of those cyprus worries. what's your take on the market right here? and are there any red flags that are out there for you? >> there are tons of red flags that are out there for me, sue. i think that the market is built very much on the back of a printing press. right now you have a holiday week. you have the end of a quarter, so you potentially could have some window dressing. if it's going to happen, the mood is definitely right. that doesn't mean that i don't have concerns for the market overall, as i said, i think that it's still on the back of a lot of easy money. and so, there are certainly long-term warning signs, but it doesn't mean in the short-term, it won't keep marching ahead. >> carol just letting it ride, right now. paul schatz, you have been one of our resident bulls since last fall, but recently you have been starting to sell into strength. tell us about this change. >> that's right, bill. we really went full bore on it in mid-november, and happily

been long ever since, until midend of last week. i think, i don't think the bull market is dead. but i think the bull market's got some cracks in it. i'm really concerned that wall street is falling over itself to get, to raise targets. it's a race to who could be the most bullish on wall street. that bothers me. the semi-conductors are really falling on their sword a little bit. i'm concerned about that. high-yield bonds were the leader the whole rally. all of a sudden, they've been somewhat dormant. and let's not forget emerging markets. no one's talking about that emerging markets are actually down on the year. i've got some concerns in the short-term. i think this is all part of a big topping process that's going to take place over the second quarter. >> jeff, would you weigh in on that, please? i know there were two, perhaps i should have given you the red flag question. there are two things you're watching out of ten, but overall, you do see some constructive foundations for the market. but, what about the previous comments? >> yeah, sue, you're right. at lpl financial this week, we

just published the ten indicators we're watching most closely that predicted the downturns we've seen in each of the last three years, there's 10 to 19% slides, that each started in april of the last three years. and only two of those are really flashing red flags right now. another three were watching, we'd call them yellow flags. the other five of green. and i think what that tells us, we're not likely to see a big 10 to 20% decline starting this april, but maybe a 5 to 10% decline might be in the cards here. at least, that's given our read of those key indicators. >> meanwhile, fitch today putting cyprus on credit watch with negative implications. boy, the market must have gone nuts over that one. >> that was really shocking, wasn't it? >> yeah, right. >> you know, i think nothing quantifies the dynamic we talk about every day better than these next two charts. these are year-to-date charts of ten-year note yields and the dow and the s&p.

basically we're up 1,200 points from where we started at in january and that's worth 14 basis points hooigher on tens. on the s&ps, we're about 106 points higher. still the same 14 basis points higher on ten-year vote yields. you could disagree with the fed, but at this point, fighting it seems to be a mug's game. >> rick, if i could ask you one follow-up question. weapon didn't get good demand in the auction today, and i'm still puzzling over that, given the fact that the situation in cyprus has caused so much volatility. i would have thought you would have seen better demand in the treasury market today than you did. >> yeah, i agree with that. but remember, the two-year note, you have a pretty high litmus test. the cover was still the lowest since july. any other auction longer maturity or european, that would be something to celebrate. so, yes, we're splitting hairs, but you're right, the demand just wasn't what it was at the last several two-year note

auctions. >> and carol, rick was just referring to you, wasn't he, when he said, you may disagree with the fed, but you can't fight the fed right now. >> and i think that that's true. when erybody's insane, sometimes you have to go along with the insanity, at least in the short-term. i think in the long-term, though, bill, i have a lot of concerns. and while everybody's focused on cyprus and europe and currency wars and what's going on abroad, i'm concerned about what's going on right here at home. and i don't have a lot of confidence, shockingly, in our own government. i have a lot of concerns as we see these positive indicators going higher, the economy starts to come back a little bit more and a little bit more, that then congress is going to think that they have a free pass to start spending again. and that will be disastrous for the market and the economy. >> so you're more concerned about fiscal policy than monetary policy right now, is that what you're saying? >> i'm most concerned about legislative policy, then fiscal policy, then monetary policy. >> bill, you mentioned that it's been almost two weeks now that

the stock market's been so close to making a new all-time high on the s&p 500, just can't do it. i think it's interesting, at the same time, the yield curve is starting to flatten out, just a little bit. these are indicators that maybe this is time for a top year. we might be on the cusp of another one of those -- >> explain, paul, what it means when the yield curve flattens out. why is that substantiaignifican? >> over the long-term, the flat of the yield curve eventually gets inverted, the more likely we'll have an economic disruption or a recession. i'm not worried about the yield curve now. i think that's all talk for down the road. the minute the fed pulls back from $85 billion, but even $1 billion, that, to me, is the -- that's not the yellow sign, that's the bright red flashing sign. the minute they go down even $1 billion, we know that $1 billion is headed towards zero and they're heading towards rising rates. i think that's so far down the road right now, i think all we're talking about are some short-term wiggles, as jeff said, maybe a 5% or 10% pullback here. and then maybe we build toward a more significant top next

quarter or in q3, or q4, excuse me. >> so where are you deploying capital? where are you putting your money to work? >> we're a little bit cautious. we're looking to buy on these pullbacks here, like home builders, which are bullet proof when they do pull back. they had a little pullback in february, you want to buy them. manufacturing. you want to buy the industrial side on the pullbacks. those are some key areas you can really look for some bargains when we get that volatility, which i think is really near. >> what's troublesome, you have staples leading and health care leading. that's normally not what you see in a really, really healthy bull market. yes, banks are fitting well, but you don't normally see staples and health care in a bull market. >> carol, before you go, how's your bracket doing request m. >> my bracket's still hanging in there, which is a really good thing. i think that i might be able to pull it out this year, but i

will keep you posted, bill. >> i'm sure you will. you've been doing well so far. you're being modest, i know. thank you all for joining us. appreciate it very much. see you later. >> as we mentioned at the top of the hour, the market is brushing up against records again today. josh lipton is here with an update on the all-time high watch. hey, josh. >> hey, sue. well, risk-on, green across the screen for the dow, the nasdaq and the s&p, marching closer towards record territory. this is the sixth time this month that we have come just within five points of hitting a new all-time closing high. now, within the s&p, of those companies hitting new 52-week highs today, about 50% were either health care or consumer staple names. interesting because those two sectors have been the two best performing sectors this year. also, sectors, by the way, as your guest mentioned, that we traditionally consider more defensive corners of the stock market. other notable names hitting new all-time highs today, the card companies. mastercard, visa, and american

express all hitting records. also check out johnson & johnson, cvs, kimberly clark, and hershey, also record highs in today's session. >> josh, thanks. we'll be checking back with you. as we head towards the close, 50 minutes left, if the dow were to close here, we would be at all-time high territory. not so for the s&p, but we are close. as you can see, the all-time high close, 1565.15. right now we're at 1561.53. stay tuned. we could make history today. >> we could, on several fronts. the markets are rocking, but what about the housing industry? after the break, we'll get the latest data and find tout if now, perhaps, is the right time for you to buy. and then did the crack in lieu lululemon open up a crack. >> and airlines are charging you more for a la carte services. now orbitz may be trying to cash

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welcome back. if you're just joining us, if the dow were to close right here, we'd be at all-time record territory. we've got a record cles for the dow, if we can stick in this area. 15549 and change. nasdaq, forget about it. we're not going to see 5,000 for a while. s&p 5,000, though, is the getting ever close. about 2 1/2 points away from a record closing high on those. now, i know if maria were here, she'd say, but it's all on very low volume, bill. but as i always point out, you can make money whether it's high volume or low volume. you can still make and lose money. >> we'll take the record, right? absolutely, any day. well, with mortgage rates at or near historic lows for last couple of years, refinancing has been basically a no-brainer for many people, right? >> well, not so fast. steve liesman is here with cnbc's all-american survey with some surprising data on who has been refinancing and who has not. steve? >> yeah, bill, this is a really interesting finding from our survey, our cnbc all-america

economic survey of 800 americans around the country. and we did have some positive housing data. i just want to give you the topline stuff before we dig in a little deeper here. this is the percentage of americans who expect their home values to increase. 54%, that's come down, the same. and what's happened here is you'll see those who say it's going to go up, it's up for a post-crisis high of 33% vest only 13%, who say it's going to decrease. but that doesn't mean we don't have problems in the housing market in this country. in fact, in some cases, quite substantially, you look at the next chart here. what we'll see, you ask people, compared to the purchase price, what you bought it for, is your home value the same? 22% saying it's unchanged, and that compares with march 2011 and '12, worth less, 26%. worth more, 28%. this is the thing that's interesting here. about a quarter of the public still says their home was worth less than what they bought it for. what about refinancing? have they refinanced? i thought these numbers were low compared to what i've seen. 75% said no and only 22% said,

yes, they've refinanced. and what's really interesting is you can see, right away, folks, the benefits of refinancing. come over here. 5.15% is the average mortgage rate among those who have not refinanced. 4.85, the average, overall, and almost more than a point lower, those who have refinanced are at 4.07%. so there is a lot to go, but why aren't they getting there? why don't i show you some of the demographics of who has refinanced? these are among those who have mortgages and those who have not. if you're younger than 35 years old, only 15% of those have refinanced. minorities, only 18%. whites, 24%. this is probably the biggest gap here, by income. 19%, if you earn less than $30,000, and 31%, if you earn more than $100,000. sue, we don't know why this is. are there financial reasons for the lack of refinancing? there's a group of people out there who could benefit from

lower mortgage rates, but they do not appear to be. >> i think some of the financial reasons could be key there, because so many people got hurt so badly in the financial crisis. steve, stay with us. let's shift to people who may be taking new mortgages when they buy a home. they're now paying more for those houses. news today from case-shiller that home prices are jumping as inventory remains relatively high. in fact, it was the biggest spike in prices since 2006. so the housing market is back, but is it back to stay? let's talk about that, shall we? steve still with us. we've also got david lick of mortgage bankers' solution, who is very cautious about stepping into this market right now. columbia university real estate professor, christopher mayer, says there is no better time than right now. gentleman, thank you both, and steve, as well. dave, why are you cautious on this market? rates are about as low as they can get right now? >> the problem is not the interest rates, and certainly, the problem is not that housing prices are unaffordable. they're the most affordable they've been in a long time. one of the biggest issues facing

a lot of people is a lot of people have their credit messed up. so if they have bad credit and you're wanting to and/or your property is still undervalued, you can't get a loan. so this administration is proposing a massive refinance across the board, refinance america, basically. and those statistics that we just heard steve give us has got to be causing every mortgage banker watching right now, going, wow, we're going to have a great year and a couple years, maybe, ahead. >> although mortgage lending standards are still tight, mr. bernanke has mentioned that. even if you do have good credit, a lot of people are still having a hard time getting a loan. christopher, let me talk to you. the debate here on the east coast, anyway, is the fact that people are getting into bidding wars in some cases. there have been a lot of articles in the local paper about that, two and three offers on homes. is it a good time to step into the housing market right now, or should you step back and see whether or not this recovery holds? >> i think david's point is

exactly right, which is, should people step in? it's a wonderful time to step in. if you have the credit, and in many cases, the down payment to be able to get a loan. this is a great time. one of the things that people don't realize in buying a home is the bulk of the value of getting a home is living in it, not the capital appreciation. which over the long run, averages about 1% after inflation. so buying ing ing a home is a g to build wealth, it's a great way to sort of hedge yourself against up and down risks in the market and of interest rates. so if you're in a financial position to be able to do, i think it's a wonderful time to buy a home. >> hey, sue? >> go ahead, steve. >> i just wondered if i could ask a question, one of my best contacts in the real estate market, the answer to the puzzle here. what we saw is that minorities are not refinancing as much as whites, younger, not refinancing, and we also saw that poorer not refinancing. some of these folks are the very same folks that would benefit most and ultimately could benefit the economy. is it a problem of education?

is it a probable of government programs? is it just a problem of let the market -- or is there something that we can, and i underscore, should be doing about this? >> i think he answered that earlier on, but go ahead. >> the data and refinancing are very interesting. there's a lot of refinancing, but there are people who are the best credit people who are repeatedly refinancing, working rates down. the bulk of the country of the people who are underwater, who are near underwater, they're having a very hard time getting credit. the heart program until recently hasn't really reached that. so it's actually, it's both true that people are refinancing a lot, but there are many, many people, disadvantaged people, younger people whose houses are more likely to be underwater, because they bought closer to the peak. these are all populations that significantly haven't benefited and there's a tremendous opportunity still today. goldman sachs reports that over 21 million homeowners could currently benefit, saving more than 150 bucks a month on mortgages.

those are current numbers. >> yeah. and david, i guess, that was your point. i mean, it may not be the fact that people don't want to refinance. it's that they can't refinance right now, for various reasons, right? >> that is absolutely the case. we are seeing a lot of people trying to go out and applying and just can't get it. but here's another factor that i'm talking. i speak across the country. i speak at almost every week, somewhere in the united states, i'm getting a lot of feedback from people. here's one of the most significant data points that i'm picking up. people are feeling a lot of uncertainty about this economy. and while they look at the stock market, they scratch their head going, gosh, that's great, but i can't make a trade and trade out of it quickly. this, a real estate transaction, is the longest term, longest term investment anyone can make. and people are wisely thinking about it and looking at all the economic data points that you guys cover so well, each week, each day, each minute. and they're going, you know what, good indication that property values are going up. but i don't see a reason to race out there and put myself at risk

again. and that's those that have good credit. those that don't have good credit, don't even have that as an option. >> and steve, the jobs market has to be a big correlation of this as well? >> absolutely. that's something that disqualifies certain people, especially, by the way, if they just recently got a job. they would not qualify for, say, a refinancing or additional credit. i also think, guys, neither of these two gentleman mentioned education. i think some form of letting people know that these rates are out there, and people could potentially qualify. i think there may be, at least, some cohort of people who think they can't qualify, but might, either through one of the government programs or even directly through a bank, might qualify. i think that may be a problem. when i look at some of the internals on the data, it strikes me that some people are more aware of financial news than others. and those who are more aware have lower interstates. >> right. >> very quickly, chris. >> i would say a couple of quick things. one of them is, surveys consistently show people still want to be homeowners, at nearly

the same rate as before. i think it's a credit issue, not a demand issue of people wanting to be homeowners. and i think the sort of education and access is still about the same problem. it's credit supply, as we've been talking about. >> yeah, exactly. yep, owning a home, still aspirational, still part of the american dream. >> american dream, absolutely. >> thank you, gentleman. good stuff. steve, appreciate it very much. see you later. all right, heading toward the close, about 35 minutes left in the trading day. yes, the dow continues to get stronger and it is in all-time high territory. the s&p, boy, is it close. >> it's stuck. it's just stuck. >> we're about three point -- a little over three points away. we'll see if we can do this in the next 35 minutes here and get a new high for the s&p. >> i'll bet you a cup of coffee we'll do it? >> you think we will? >> i think we might. i think we might. lululemon, recently a wall street darling, but now the stock is down significantly. a little problem that's turned into a big problem with see-through yoga pants made

things a lot worse. but did you know that the gap has its own line of workout clothing? find out next if it will cut into lulu's bottom line. and then they say that april showers bring may flowers, but that may not be the case this year. in the markets, we'll debate about if the sell in may theory applies this year. that and much more coming up on the most important hour of the trading day. stay tuned. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] it was designed to escape the ordinary. it feels like it can escape gravity. ♪

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welcome back. the dow in all-time high territory. we've got 30 minutes left. sue says we're going to finish at the all-time highs. we'll see. >> i just think we will. >> the nasdaq is up 13 points. no new highs there. the s&p, very careful, very close right now. we need to get to 1565.15. so we're about 2 1/2 points away. that's the one we're keeping an eye on right now. and we will see if we can get a new all-time high, finally, for the s&p 500 in the next 30 minutes here. >> i think we might do it. >> all right. lululemon shares are in bad shape this year, while the gap is looking good. and part of the reason and the push could be from their competing athletic apparel lines. our courtney reagan is here with some of the details on that. this would be a break for the gap. >> it really would. and gap is just a number of one of the competitors hoping to chisel away from the lululemon's

market share. five new athletic locations were opened in gap's fourth quarter, but the grand total is only 35 in north america, compared to lu lululemon's locations. now, both of the businesses cater to fitness instructors and both offer personal ids customer experience in store, an experience beyond the product in store. now, althea's products are lower priced than lulu. bill? >> shades of jcpenney on that one. thank you, courtney. so is either stock a buy right now? it's gap versus lululemon, specialty retail battle in today's talking numbers on the

technicality side, it's enis taner with riskreversal.com, and jeff tomsulo. enis, i know you're bearish on law li lululemon, but you like gap. >> traders are anticipating some strength from the gap stores. they've bid the stock up above the crucial $30 level and it met some resistance level at. the 3785 previous high, but i think in the long run, if we move to the 20-year chart, we'll see that gap has really built up a very long ten-year base. it broke out of it last year on the 20-year chart, and from there, i think $30 is going to be important support going forward. so i really like gap stores in the retail sector, specifically. >> all right, jeff, you're nodding your head. do you agree with enis here? >> well, i agree on what the chart lack looks like. but overall, i think the problem we face with the retail sector, gap, lululemon, coach, macy's, the whole sector is that the

easy money has been made already. and so now we're facing some really major headwinds going forward. and we saw that this morning, bill, with the consumer confidence. we basically, with that number that came out today, we wiped out, basically, all of the confidence level that we came in at february. >> so are you selling both these stocks, then? >> we are short lululemon, and i actually like gap overall, but, again, going forward, you have -- there are some major head winds. we have cotton prices, right, that got killed in 2011, stayed depressed all throughout 2012, and now we've had a 17.5% increase in cotton prices. that's going to affect the -- gap's margins. and also, also, bill, one thing that i thought was shocking was the cold weather. all throughout the plains and the northeast, if you're a woman, walking through new york city, three days ago, and you look up and you see all those pastel pants, are you inclined to go in and buy from the gap right now?

no. again, that's going to affect their margins. they'll have to cut their prices and get rid of that inventory. >> we've got to go at this point, guys. enis, i know you want to jump in there, but i'm being told we are out of time. >> sorry, enis. >> thanks, guys. see you later. >> thank you. we are heading to the close, though. we've got plenty of time to tell you about this. the s&p is getting ever-closer to all-time high territory. >> it's getting there. maybe i should have bet you a manhattan instead of a coffee. >> then you'd have something there. but to we've got to get to 1565.15 before the top of the hour. 30 minutes left. we'll see if we can get there. and sell in may, in a market like this, that's so last year. up next, we have a market expert who says you should sell in april instead. and someone else who says, just keep buying as the weather gets warmer. in the meantime, financials in the crosshairs of the senate. why both democrats and republicans may be targeting the big banks right now. we'll have details on that when we come back after the break. then the markets, as we said, hovering near all-time highs again, but what's a buy

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all right. 30 minutes left to the closing bell. here's how the markets are shaping up. the dow trading up 112 points on the trading session. all-time highs. the nasdaq right now is also trading on the plus side, but, of course, as we know, it's well off of its all-time highs. the s&p, i still think we're going to pull it off, although, it's really, really making me work for it. >> getting closer! >> 1563.40. >> it is getting closer, bill, but such a tease. >> that last half hour, last 15 minutes could do it there. all right. even as the markets charge forward, big worries for the big banks. the senate voting unanimously to end government subsidies for institutions that are deemed too big to fail. and now there's talk that a new measure could be introduced next month that would add a surcharge to the country's biggest banks. >> indeed. bart naylor of public citizens thinks the senate should do that and a lot more, but lenwood brooks from public notice says, careful what you wish for, because new fees for banks may just get passed on to the cheers.

gentleman, welcome. why do you think, mr. brooks, that those fees will get passed on to the customers? because history tells us that's the case? >> yeah. if you look at what we did during dodd/frank, during the liquidation process, the big banks are already effectively taxed. so the answer to this problem is not a new tax and it will eventually get passed on to the consumer. but big banks should worry. a vote in the senate does show that there is moment. >> bart, you're in the camp that says we should break up the big banks, that there is a thing, too big to fail. but what's too big? where's the watermark? at what point is that bank too big to fail? and who should decide that? >> it's a good question and does need to be studied. banks have been closed up $250 billion in assets. we roughly have five banks that are more than $500 billion in assets. it's the big five. and clearly they need to be broken up. we have a major taxpayer subsidy that we shelled out four years ago, five years ago, in terms of the bailout itself. we also now have too big to

jail, with companies such as hspc, laundering over $200 trillion of money without any real penalty. >> but i think we should be skeptical of washington, because a few days before dodd/frank was signed into law, secretary geithner said this bill is too big to fail. we're figuring out now, it doesn't. >> yes, it certainly doesn't go far enough. that's true. >> to bill's point, though, who makes that decision? is it the fed thattic imakes t decision? >> there are many regulators out there. >> right now decisions are being made ad hoc. there needs to be a serious process. >> so another committee, perhaps? >> regulators that actually avail themselves of information before they make momentous decisions. >> lenwood, capital requirements. these banks have done an awful lot of work over the last five years to try to shore up their balance sheets. they have greatest cash levels they've had in a long time. aren't we at a level where they may be too big, but they aren't going to fail.

part of dodd/frank has made sure of that, hasn't it? >> that's exactly right. and fsoc can control capital requirements. >> big banks, even jpmorgan, with its so-called fortress balance sheet is operating at 3% leverage. it's bottle $33 of borrowed money for every dollar that investors put in. >> what was the leverage before -- bart, what was the leverage before the financial crisis? it was much higher, wasn't it? >> i don't know how much, if you want really terrible or awfully really terrible, we are still at a woeful state in terms of bank capital standards. >> so you're saying banks should not be allowed to take risk? isn't that the business they are in? >> there's a difference between taking risk and having shareholder money at risk. right now again, we're using depositor and borrowed money to be put at risk, whereas companies like jpmorgan are only putting in $3 for every $100 that they gamble of actual shareholder money. >> lenwood, i know you think i'm doing your work for you, but i've got two words for you as

well. london whale. >> well, no question there. you know, banks do have problems. and like we were talking about earlier, they haven't been prosecuted for fraud. i think that's wrong. people that did fraud should be held accountable. >> all right. well, it is an issue that's not going away for a long time. >> nope. >> that's for sure. thank you both for your thoughts today on too big to fail. >> thank you. >> all right. we're getting ever-closer to that "closing bell" and the dow jones industrial average is trading up 112 points ton trading session. bill, just a few moments ago, the s&p was 1.36 points away from that all-time closing high. >> ohh! sue's going to get that free coffee. >> or manhattan. is the old sell in may strategy about to inflict some serious damage on these markets? the street is already starting to debate that issue. we'll get to that, plus different views on how you should play this market, coming up. ] every famous curve has an equally thrilling, lesser-known counterpart. conquer them with the exhilarating is 250. get great values

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17 minutes. >> it would make it a lot easier. >> the markets are up 10% so far this year and still going hire. but if cnbc's jeff cox is right, we could be giving those gains up really soon. he believes this year, we're going to see sell in april, not sell in may, right? >> he does. but joe lavorgna from deutsche bank says, that's not happening this year. both joe and jeff join us along with our own bob pisani who's hearing that sell in may charter already on the floor of the new york stock exchange. so bob, what are you hearing? >> it's amazing the following the sell in may, go away has gotten. the last five years, it's been particularly big. there's a big buy-in into this idea. here's the problem i have, it really didn't work last year. we were up in that period from may through october. and secondly, let me get this straight. with the fed behind you, you are telling people that we should sell all their stocks and do, what, go into bond funds in may? i can think of a lot of o reasons, including a few year, where i'm not so sure that's a great idea.

>> let's go to that daper guy in red there, mr. cox. you're the one that's always talking about the fed anyway. why would you sell if the fed's still in it? >> my biggest problems for this segment has been coming up with something to rhyme with april. but may's got it easy. and last year, as bob said, in june we kind of sang a different tune and came back after we did sell in may. anyway, all rhyming aside, i'm not saying you need to sell in april and then run and hide underneath your bed for the next six months. i do think that this market needs to do some backing and filling. we've been talking so much about this record, you know. when we've gotten close to this record or passed the dow record, this hasn't been a very happy time for the markets. so i do think we have three things coming up in april. we have more problems in euro we have tax season comin which has always been a very uncertain time for the markets. and we also just kind of have this notion of, you know, the earnings. i mean, i think that our earnings are not going to be

that great. it's going to be a sloppy earnings season. and plenty of reason to just take a break here. >> all right. what's wrong with that logic, joe lavorgna? >> i would say, jeff makes a lot of good points, but the way i look at it is the multiple is only about 14 1/2 trailing, forward is a little more than 15. the work that some of my colleagues have done suggest a multiple, given buybacks, given earnings projections, given what rates are, could actually approach something around 18. so, we conservatively put a valuation of about 15 1/2 on earnings of 108. would take you to around 1675. >> i get all that, joe, but don't we need a correction at some point? it's not going to go straight forever? >> it won't forever, bill. but this is the thing. given those fundamentals, and youinvestors have performed, only now are they neutral. they put money into stocks, but this isn't a market where investors are overweight equities and performance generally has been lacking.

so from a technical perspective, i think if the economy finally is improving this year and the fed is still going to be slow to pull back the stimulus, i think equities, almost by default, have to go up. it won't, obviously, be linear, but i think the notion that you're supposed to back away from the market, to try to time it for a pullback, i don't think it's going to work. >> got to go, guys. thank you all. joe and jeff, we'll see you later. bob, stick around. >> sell in may and be dismayed. >> very good. >> sell in may and be mia. >> he's a poet and knows it. we're getting closer. the all-time high for the s&p is 1565.15, we're now at 1563.74 as we head towards the close. >> about 15 minutes left to go. >> one stock that's gotten us there, by the way, orbitz' stock, traveling higher by 100% so far this year. later on "closing bell," we'll talk to the ceo about how he plans to take it even higher. stay tuned. acceler-rental.

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welcome back. >> we're just moments away from the closing bell, just points away from a fresh all-time high for the dow. we're in that all-time high territory for the dow. we're a point and change away from an all-time high for the

s&p 500. but are investors getting way ahead of themselves right now? that's what we'll keep asking. >> and we're going to talk to dan mcmahon from raymond james and art cashen, ubs services. dan, the debate that we just had is, do you book some profits right now, with the market hovering at these all-time highs, but the s&p still unable to push through that high. what do you think? >> not necessarily. we're advising clients to, you know, buy on the dips, basically. >> we haven't had much of a dip, though, that's the problem. >> any dip is muted, because there's a lot of cash on the sidelines, and we're of the mind that we are involved in what is now becoming a secular bull market. >> arthur, the market -- you know the thing about this market? today notwithstanding, we just keep hitting singles, every day. we don't have big, big moves. and i think that's why a lot of people aren't paying attention, don't you? >> it's frustrating. everybody wants to buy in the dip. and no longer do we say the dip

of april, may, now. it's more like the dip of 1:30 in the afternoon, 2:15. >> exactly. >> because everybody's waiting to jump in. and i am rooting for sue that they make a new high and she gets her irish coffee. >> i'm progresses on the alcohol scale as this goes on. >> we're fighting uphill a little bit. right now, if the market closes slightly to the sell side. the other rumor is, thursday will be the last day of the month and it's been a great first quarter and instead of window dressing, you may see a little window washing with people taking some profits. >> i can confirm the rumor that thursday will be the last trading day of the month. aren't we do for some sort of a correction? >> without a doubt. >> we've done 10% in the first quarter. >> a lot of people are laooking for, calling for, hoping for the 5 to 10% pullback, it's just, what's going to be the catalyst. right now, there's not a lot of catalyst either way. this week is interesting, holy week, shortened week, end of the

quarter. >> are you looking for a good earnings season? because if you look at the shot across the bow from fedex and cat, that has some people down here saying maybe this upcoming quarter won't be as good. >> and you also saw some weakness in the tech sector as well, with some of the companies reporting and preannouncing. so we're getting to the point where expectations might be getting a little lofty. it's been a very low bar every earnings season for the past several. but corporates are still in great shape, still a lot of cash in the coffers and on the sidelines. >> so what do you buy? sorry about that? >> that's all right. >> that's an excellent question. >> and in fact, arthur, we're starting to see some of the markets come back in here at this point. but do you think, at some point, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy as we get closer to that 1565 level. that kind of a thing? >> usually, i don't talk about people throwing money away because they're exasperated, but if you get that close, there is a sense of let's get it over, and then we can go on and look

at the next thing. so i wouldn't be surprised if you got within a half point or a quarter of a point on the s&p, somebody would just push it across and say, okay, that's done. now where do we go? >> my work is finished now here. all right, thank you both. good to see you. see you around. >> all right. we're coming back with closing countdown. >> this ought to be good. and after the bell today, we're going to find out how the experts recommend playing this wild market, as we continue to close out the first quarter. and it has been a stellar first quarter. we're back with more "closing bell" after this.

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about 3 1/2 minutes left here. >> i'm filling out the iou. >> i think i'm safe, don't you? >> i think you are. >> anything can happen in the next few minutes here. we are in all-time high territory. you need to close about 15549. we're 11 points above that right now, 12 points. looks like that's safe. here's the one we're watching very carefully. the s&p needs to be at 1565.15 and it's at 1562. >> i keep going up to that machine, and going, anybody home there? >> terry dolan, you're a savvy trader. do we need to get to 1565 to go higher from there? >> i think, psychologically -- >> at some point, does the market give up? >> i think right now the psychological factors are wnd getting up to that new