nasdaq is

>> we're below 1.7%. but the last time, the last time we were here was way back at the end of december, right about here. right at the end of december. that's about 10% lower than where we are right now. boundaries of what kind of correction we might be getting. it's been a rough week related to anything cyclical. this has been the story for

almost three weeks. i won't say the market is clairvoyant but it was pres yant in predicting today's number. brian? >> i don't know what that means but what i can tell you is we can all debate is how much lower interest rates are based on what the fed buy back does to the complex. but today you get to isolate it. if you look at an interdate chart, there is no doubt that at 8:30 eastern the labor statistics hit and we dropped into the 160s. we settled unchanged yesterday.

should we close here it would be the lowest yield close. the bonds are very little difference. here we are at 284. we settle the year at 295. also, should we close here? the lowest yield since the second week and it really underscores the weakness in the economy. it has a big significance we can't ignore. >> something wicked this way may be coming. i'm not asking you to put on your matlock experience hat. >> that is the fact that we see crude inventories near record levels and we saw macro economic

data. that was always pressuring oil prices. and below $105 a barrel and wti under pressure as well. if you don't have a job you're not driving to work. that is something that is definitely pressuring the energy market overall. the prigt side was the gold market. a lot of the bulls were saying all week long we have tensions in north korea. why is gold at a ten month low? today we have seen it rally more than 25 bucks. some traders are saying now maybe we will see safe haven buying. but the injury jury is really st there.

>> just 88,000 jobs created in march, well below expectations. also far beneath the average. but since stocks have fallen the past two summers, is this real reason to change your investment strategy. jim, are you completely throwing out your former play book and altering every investment you make because of this number today? >> no. i don't think so. you know that not everything is going to move in a straight line. you're not going to get every report all year long. i think this is an opportunity maybe to make some changes in the portfolio from those sectors that have been strong to those that are lagging a bit in this pause or pull back. i don't really -- the number is not a good number but i don't

see anything that frightens me. there are good things in the number here. we created 160,000 jobs per month in the quarter. there is still good momentum. and i still think that the market is in there. >> tell us some of the tweaks and rotations that you might be making right now. the utilities, staples and health care and move some of the funds. what has gotten beat up the most. emerging markets, material stocks, technology, industrials. i think what this is doing is this is taking down the hurdles that we're starting to impact the stock market. we're taking long term yields

down and taking the dollar off its bid. i think we get a cyclical rally later in the year and you might as well take advantage of those cheap values now. >> we went from 11.1 down to 10.7 and we dropped nearly a thousand points in the spring and summer of 2012. we had the spring summer swoon the last three years. do you expect one this year. if we get it are you doubling down and buying more? >> well, i don't double down or double up in that regard. that's not what i do. but as far as whether or not we're going to see the economy or the employment situation weaken again, there were some issues in the household survey in particular that were just stunningly bad that shows that the labor market situation is very close to the worst that it's been. the the number of employed fell

by 290,000.march but they all left the labor force. we can see that because the number of employed fell by $206,000 and the combination that was the amount that the civilian labor force fell. that was up more. it's up about 1.5 million in the last five months. that puts the employment rate, the employee to population ratio at 58.5. the low for this entire cycle was 58.2. although we have cut people out of the labor market and that's how the rate has improved, we have done very little as far as improving the labor market situation.

>> i understand what you were saying. it's not like we have had a strong job market anyway. we don't like to see it but is it a shock to you? >> i can list off good things in the report, too. if it's that bad out there, then how did housing activity go up? why are we going to have a real gdp report? and low and behold, stocks are up another 10%. it's your normal fluctuation. and not just here but we didn't have the emerging world was decelerating last year. we didn't have japan last year.

now it's accelerating. and the united states was weaker last year than it has been in this quarter. i just think that i think that's setting us up for another run. >> does this justify the saying that we have had on the show if we had. this is a no bad news market. good news is good news and bad news is good news because then it means the fed may go on for longer. >> one of the reasons -- that may be the case as far as the fed and whether or not that -- the fed buying of treasuries and increasing their balance sheet continues to help the stock markets. i think that remains an open question. it has certainly worked the other qes and we will see if it

continues to work this time. at some point that's going to affect aggregate demand. i'm certain we're going to go up in the first quarter. but the fourth quarter, nominal gdp is the lowest that has not been associated with recession in the post war period. >> certainly we can dig up the ominous points and we can get you back on and debate whether or not you might be right. thanks for coming on. i'm annoyed. we're doing the show from minneapolis. where are you going be? >> i think you're a little bit of a wuss coming in april. i didn't see you there in april. >> i got a parka, don't ya know? i watched fargo. i'll be fine.

>> you bet cha. >> how are people getting by? retirement? disability? plus j.c. penney's make or potentially break move today. and later on, the game of thrones economy. how this show has proven a big boon for lands far away.

>> the cbo? the volatility, the fear level is up a little bit today. up 4% to 14. still not that high. the vix around 18, 19, 20. probably more worrisome but still probably higher today. >> aside from the weak headline, in march came this scary fact. nearly half a million people simply drop out of the work force. they vanished. with an aging population, some of the losses can be attributed to people retiring but it doesn't likely tell the whole story. first to you, you will dig into these numbers. where are these people going? and how are they making a living? >> who are they? it's very interesting. when you can't answer the question. i want to show you some charts that i calculated here. i was really surprised at the

results here. this is the change from january 1990 by age of whether or not the amount of employed and amount in the labor force. what you can see is this whole middle-aged group. it's down in their labor force. and down in the number of employed. but look over here. check out older folks we're calling them. they're up. what seems to be happening if you take the wide view is that middle-aged is out and older folks are in. a couple of things going on. we know that this group is being hit hard for manufacturing job cuts. this group over here. living longer and living healthier and making that decision. this group over here also has portfolios that haven't performed the way they had

hoped. now whether or not this is related, they are hard to tell. they are doing okay. not terrific since january 2008. steve, come on over this way. we will continue our debate with you on the set. let's bring in christian and dan. christian a couple of things that are concerning. do you believe that the older workers group who have to work are stealing jobs and maybe stealing part of their own future here? >> no. generally we don't really think of that generation of warfare going on. often older workers tend to be in jobs that have particular skill levels. you will also see older workers

have needs that rise. and i think everybody is in their own little segments and they are all struggling in their own regards. i think it is a little bit hard to figure out what is going on with the middle ages. they are discouraged. the economy if you will. >> the all cash market. >> that's possible. there is not that much work to go around. >> you should. >> if there is only a certain amount of work to go around, folks are staying in the work force longer, then almost by definition they are taking jobs. >> well, as i say, it's not quite as clear cut that if somebody like an older work

force leaves that it would be replaced. we have seen higher increases in productivity growth. you look at all of the -- every age group is struggling and stabling things differently. live off of their portfolio. we get quick job losses. younger workers going back to college. some younger workers are working pretty well. >> let me get dan in here. here is the paris dox of the day. >> all we hear about is that americans largely do not have enough money to retire. we hear that all the time. yet now we're hearing people are leaving the work force because they're retiring. you can't have it both ways. >> i agree. that's inconsistent. when i look at this data, i don't want to segment it.

i look at the entire population and what concerns me is as an economi economist, what gives us output? we lost last month what? 600,000 people from the labor force? we look at the labor and employment ratio how that number has tanked. i don't care whether it's 50-year-olds leaving the market or 30-year-olds. we are losing labor out of this economy. and the question is why is it? because they're being lured into dependcy? >> what do -- dan? what do you think about that? i put that out there and people say you heartless whatever. the reality is people on disability has gone up millions. there are so many people receiving disability. >> we have created more people on disability than we have created jobs. that's a horrifying number

there. >> we are not working in more dangerous professions. five year ace go. >> that's the other side. >> regulations. >> the work force incidences and you look at many of the service industries they are damaging to people's health. there is bad backs, bad knees that prevent people from working longer. and the problem is it is a 0-1 system. you are ether sick or healthy. it doesn't allow people to keep on working. on the one hand we have to get rid of it. the sequester that do automatic spending cuts. coming back.

but below that, i disagree with dan to have to be target strategists. the problems that young workers are different. the problems that older workers face. >> guys we have foder for a lot of further discussion. thank you all very much. i have got to go now because we have breaking news from the faa. >> the faa has diseased it's going to be -- remember they were supposed to close down on sunday because of sques ration cuts. now the faa saying we're going to put that off until june 15. they need to make sure they get this right and that safety is the top priority ask that closing these centers you want to make sure there will be ample resources to ensure that they

will be controlled and those flights continue and continue safely. so, june 15 is the new day for the cuts of 149 air traffic control towers. >> is one laptop really worth four times the price of another? why we're willing to pay the apple premium when street signs returns. we went out and asked people a simple question: how old is the oldest person you've known? we gave people a sticker and had them show us. we learned a lot of us have known someone who's lived well into their 90s. and that's a great thing. but even though we're living longer, one thing that hasn't changed: the official retirement age. ♪ the question is how do you make sure you have the money you need to enjoy all of these years. ♪

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>> as promised we found a big dose of potential hopeium. companies that are expected to outperform their peers. >> in order to highlight the outperformers, first look at this chart. the projected growth for companies on the s&p 500. this quarter, q1, just 1.6%. factors that could weigh in on her earnings. there are high achievers. companies that are able to

deliver top and bottom line growth even during periods of growth. these are companies with the energy space that are expected to see more than a 20% uptick. interestingly enough, energy as a sector is not expected to deliver positive earnings growth. contraction in bottom line growth by 4.4%. however financials are expected to outperform. some of what made this next list, all of these companies are expected to see a triple digit percentage jump. a group on the recovery in the sector. financial as it sees a jump in subscriber base. has been a bright spot. the last two years. it could be a stronger year if it is able to beat street

estimates. it's rare blood disease. >> great stuff as always. thank you very much. given all that is going on, what is your best bet for an overall investing strategy right now. digging into that side of the story now. >> here's the deal. the best strategy could be. >> jp morgan's tom lee says that it has worked in four of the last four years and in 11 of the last 13 years. this year just investing in first quarter laggards. ratios of these sectors at the lowest levels in a decade. technology has surged. we highlighted names that he believes that buys.

apple, rock well automation and not every wall street strategist agrees with this call. ubs tells me he remains neutral. as for the former he points to falling commodity prices. including, of course, today's jobs report is clearly pointing to weaker overall demand. as for technology. and tablets are maturing markets and there does not seem to be any disruption. and consumer staples. benefit higher asset value homes. he added that lower interest rates and debt burdens are capitalizing on funds available. >> still betting on the consumer. go for the consumer? >> that's right. his point is listen, the economy is weak. you can see this morning, you will benefit here at least some

consumers from higher asset values. and listen, low rates means more refis. >> i like your thinking. j.c. penney shares are higher today. we'll tell you why and what hedge fund manager said that had some scratching their heads. and next the boxer or briefs discussion. and yes, those are your only discussions. yes, commandos. i know who you are. actually no i don't. and we're creating tax free zones for business startups. the new new york is working creating tens of thousands of new businesses, and we're just getting started. to grow or start your business visit thenewny.com

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>> all right. street talk time. a fast and final solo version before crocodile drurry returns next week. apparently underwear is a jobs market proof. underwear staying hot. hanes brands expect earnings to significantly top analysts' estimates. revenue will be lower than expected because of delayed income tax returns. eventually those returns will go out. hanes brands has doubled in just over a year. >> i did something this week

that i never every thought i would do. i was looking for a mac book but i came across an hp machine under $300. the cheapest mac was over $1200. after soul and wallet searching, i couldn't justify the premium. is apple's pricing ego maybe gotten a little bit out of hand? >> i put that out on twitter and people say you're an idiot. >> like any other day. >> but the reality is as a long-time apple user, i couldn't justify a four fold premium for a laptop that i'm going to use to surf the web and e-mail. does apple maybe have a pricing problem here? >> they might but i doubt it. i think the high end stuff, the mac book airs, they are probably

immune to what's going on. but what's going on is at the low price point is going way low. so you have got $200 net books. >> chrome book. >> which i reviewed and i think it's a great $250 machine. it's a great $500 machine or more. and then you have got people realizing that they don't really need a laptop. they have gone total tablet and maybe external keyboard. but for most of the time you are searching and doing e-mail. you don't need the big machine. >> i agree. the ipad is fantastic for consuming content but not for creating content. so i guess what got me thinking is apple a little bit -- have they gotten a little bit egotist call in the way they can throw out a $2,000 macro when you can get a chrome book for

$300? >> well yes and no. >> do you see my point? >> i do. you can get a mac book air for $100. >> why would i do that if i could buy a tablet and key boy for $700. >> once the price difference is not that much, you're paying $330 without a data plan, $450. i can get a net book for about that. i can get a really good laptop for twice that. what do i really need? that's what is going on right now. the inexpensive windows machine. >> i'm not going to run out of the house. >> this is the chrome book argument. two for the price of one, who

cares. so if you get a cheap windows machine, you're running all that heavy duty hardware on a box that is not really that powerful. it's ault ll in the cloud. it's the worst thing you could do to get an underpowered machine. >> i agree. is apple at risk of losing a generation of buyers who can't afford the $2,000 or $1500? is apple at risk of losing a generation of buyers here? >> not a generation of buyers. but they are being hurt by alternatives to the pc. >> that was quick. we appreciate. thanks for not calling me an idiot. >> i only do that on twitter. >> does that reflect worse on me or hp. up next we're teeing you up for the close. and steve case, the man who

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and a 30-tablet free trial. and his new boss told him two things -- cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. >> less than 90 minutes left in the trading day and trading

week. remember, awful open down triple digits on the dough. we're still down. and let's bring in art. art, a rough day today. but i want to show our viewers something here today that may give them hope for monday. we've dropped more than 12% twice this year. both times we have risen more than 1% the next two trading days. do you think that's going to happen again on monday? >> yeah. i like the way that sets up. i like the fact that we cut these losses in half. i got to tell you we seem to be setting the table for the consensus pull back call here. remember, this year we looked at a market that is only pulled back twice.

>> how have we come back today so much? >> the reason that it's such a consensus call is everybody is looking for pull back and every dip is being met by buyers. if you lined up. and then put that out again. i think part of it is short covering. you're looking at a situation when most of our buyers had gotten there. you know, i think that we maybe setting the table. just doesn't feel like it. >> what is the most important thing on your radar for next week? >> it's kind of a couple things. we will get the unofficial

kick-off of earnings season. that is secondary to the pre-enactment that we will continue to get. you still have a window of chance to get out before your report neck wext week. we have already seen we are hitting a soft batch. >> art, have a great weekend. >> let's talk jobs. the man who has repped create man. companies are growing and hiring. before we get to some of your ideas on how to create jobs. we often hear that people can't find qualified workers. i want to hire. do you believe that? is that true? >> it depends on what sector

you're in. >> every sector. >> there is a need for talent and some of that is making sure that we're educating our kids to have the right skills. in some ways every company is now becoming a technology company. a walmart, a retail company, they are big users of technology so we have to make sure that people have the skills for the jobs of the future. >> i worry. >> i was digging into the last numbers this morning. between the ages of 16 and 19, the unemployment rate is 24%. how are they going to grow? how are they going to have a job? how are they going support themselves the family? >> they got to make sure they have the skills not just for the past or the present but for the future. getting our schools to be a better job of teaching those is important. but it's not just the engineers.

it goes on to create lots of different jobs with a lot of different skills. but you have got to have the innovation engine and that's office ten coming from entrepreneurship and engineering. >> we do something, i love this country right? but we do something really dumb. we bring people from all over the world like stanford. and then they go back to their home countries and start companies because we don't welcome them. we educate them and push them out. >> it's crazy. it's a little bit like if we lured over the best and brightest from china. why don't you attend our naval academy and then when you get your degree and learn our secrets we will force you to go home and join the chinese military. i'm optimistic that there is broad bipartisan report for reform around immigration.

when the senate comes together and announces their package around reform, there will be broad support as part of a comprehensive reform passengerage. i think it's possible when people work together to really create the political will and momentum around getting this done to get the immigration issue dealt with. >> you have used the words hope and possible. >> i feel better about it than i ever have. i think it's going to require everybody making sure their voices are heard. whether it be republicans or democrats or a house or a senate. they all realize that it's time to deal with it.

it is an opportunity. they're going to remain the nati nation. create jobs for all of us. >> nothing more so than what you just said. thank you so much. appreciate it. still ahead, j.c. penney's make or break moment. will the bold move today pay off down the road? we will discuss and debate next. ♪ on the road ♪ and we know that it goes on and on ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of making memories and keeping promises. ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ ♪ oh, oh, all the way ♪ oh, oh

bold move today. let's bring in our courtney reagan. we've also got stacy widlitz with us here. stacy, first, what is this make or maybe break moment for jcpenney's? >> jcpenney is soft launching some of its new home shops in, quote, several hundred stores, i'm told today, and early next week. new designer shops include michael graves and conran. home may be where the heart is, but for jcpenney, it better be where sales are too. home goods has been jcpenney's worst department for seven years. in the fiscal year 2012, much lower than 21% back in 2006. they're waiting to see if the

new home shops will be the key for jcpenney to get its house in order. >> you got the news, stacy, do you believe -- we've brought a lot of heat on this company. do you believe that there is going to be meaningful changes here at jcpenney? >> here's the problem. they're rolling out the home business. it used to be 20% of the business, now it's about 12%. so there's some opportunity, but the problem is, if you think about the brands like michael graves, like jonathan adler, this is a younger, hipper customer. that's not their customer. they'll have to work very hard to get that customer in the store and almost, you know, go after the target core consumer. >> this is what troubles me a bit. we keep talk about this and joe fresh and all these things when we've identified the problem at jcpenney is largely being the alienation of their core customer. i understand they're trying to get younger and hipper, but if the young and hip aren't coming in and your old customer is ditching out, who's left? >> and that's what they did.

they drove out the coupon lady and said, we'll get that new customer in, and they'll have about 30% of the square footage transformed by the end of this year. but that customer doesn't know it's there. so they're just not naturally going into jcpenney. >> i think that the products look better. that is an example, actually. just got this in the mail from jcpenney. >> are you putting my photo in there? >> i am going to. this is a jonathan adler frame, one of the products that's going to be in the new shops, retails for $12. the price tag is on the back. this is pretty cool. it's fresh, it's hip. >> that's going to shave jcpenney? a picture frame? >> i don't know if it's going to save. >> you know what will if you're not careful, a jcpenney stock certificate. i get a little worked up. but jcpenney, i admire what they're trying to do, but bill ackman, the biggest investor in jcpenney, who's made a big, billion-dollar debt jcp has said that there's been mistakes. that they've abandoned their core customer.

>> he came out today and did a 180. he's famous for being on cnbc and saying, sales have bottomed, and supporting ron johnson through all of this. he came out and said, he should have tested the concept, criticized him, but he has to. his investors must be furious with this -- you know, with this defending and defending. after a period of time, you just can't anymore. >> so we've got one flipper. the other flipper today, potentially, alan questrom. he spoke -- former ceo of jcpenney. >> and a frequent guest on our show, said the smart test guest ever in retail. >> he's been very critical of ron johnson. actually, referred to him as delusional at one point on our air. but johnson took him through a tour and he talked to scott wapner about it and he said, there's a lot of things there that i like, that i saw in the prototype. ultimately, it will be up to the customer. but it seemed as if, even in a measured way, he might have been changing his tune. i don't know, maybe people are changing sides here. >> i could have the best-looking store in the world, but if i don't know how to get people

into it, i won't matter squat. >> and that's what matters. if your traffic is down 17%, you could put gold in that store -- >> one in six customers has gone away. >> and you know what else i think is interesting? so often companies look at marketing dollars as like, i don't know, does this really work? you've got to put money in marketing. you have to. you have to aggressively market to people laike stacy and who aren't your typical jcpenney shopper. because i actually like this stuff, but i know it's there because i follow jcpenney every minute of every day. >> you're the expert. and the other thing we didn't talk about is martha stewart. she's the headline brand in the home business, are they going to win the court case? will they have to buy out macy's? >> i talked to her two weeks ago and she said, she still had faith in ron johnson. >> of course she does. >> up next, the "game of thrones" economies. winter is coming, my friend, but

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welcnew york state, where cutting taxes for families and businesses is our business. we've reduced taxes and lowered costs to save businesses more than two billion dollars to grow jobs, cut middle class income taxes to the lowest rate in sixty years, and we're creating tax free zones for business startups. the new new york is working creating tens of thousands of new businesses, and we're just getting started. to grow or start your business visit thenewny.com hbo's "game of thrones" frenzy in full swing. the second episode of the new season coming up sunday night. if you haven't seen it, the show is beautifully shot, from locations all over the world. and that got us thinking here on "street signs," how can a production of a show like this help the local economies? jane wells has that story for us, which we're calling the game

of thrones economy, jane. >> ryan, winter is coming. but for europe, hbo is bringing a springtime of profits. in the "game of thrones" mystical land of westeros, the area north of the wall is iceland. jon snow there. and shooting has been done in scotland, malta, morocco, what about the capital, king's landing, where the lannisteres plot and scheme? >> i am a lannister, and of course, you have also heard the phrase, a lannister always pays their debts. >> king's landing is shot partly no northern island and partly croatia. croatia in particular could use the help. the economy is still shrinking. unemployment is 18%. the local tourism industry is

setting up "game of thrones" tours in iceland, the economy's recovering from a banking collapse. cnbc producer ran the numbers and estimates nearly a quarter million dollars have been spent on hotel rooms along for the cast and crew. 500 rental cars have been used at one time. northern ireland benefiting the most, with an economy that's growing a little. "game of thrones" has pumped in nearly $100 million according to the government in northern island. it predicts $30 million more next season. even in the u.s., money is being made. people lined up around the block in new york city this week for a traveling exhibit. season 3 debuted sunday with 4.4 million viewers. season 2 dvd sales were up 21% in the first month compared to season 1. but alas, it's not helping everyone. lena heady, who is fabulous as cirsi, she reported she's so broke, she only has $5 to her name. and it