justify upward estimate revisions. people questioning what it's going to take to get folks back in jpmorgan, given the valuation. the stock's not particular cheap. the regionals, in fact, are seen as some of the more expensive areas within financials. money centers will likely lead in terms of being a catalyst for this market. but that begins on jpmorgan friday, next friday, for the earnings. lots of catalysts next week. stay with "closing bell" and we'll navigate it for you. have a great weekend, everybody. don't miss "on the monday" on sunday where we have special guests on what to expect for the earnings period. have a good night. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. jobs jolt. are today's numbers a sign of tough times ahead or just a blip on the radar? one of the street's top economists is here to set the record straight. coal stocks emerge as a leader today.

we look at today's action if it sug jelgss a new bright spot in the market. and the key events that should be on your watch list ahead of the new training week. our traders give you the plays to put you one step ahead of the rest. our big story here, the big pull back in today's markets, but there were nice turnarounds, as well. does this give you more hope? >> i didn't have hope before the day started. >> so, you should have more? >> in fact, i actually come out of the day more bearish than i was at the beginning of the day. we had the story here in the u.s. about the jobs, which, to me shows that the u.s. economy is slowing down. be you the biggest story of the day is what happened to the japanese bond market. it imploded overnight. if that happens, we don't want that to happen. the japanese bond market is like grease on steroids taking red bull. it would be a disaster if that starts to fall apart and that, to me, is the most bearish thing out there. >> when you double from 35 to 65 basis points, people, you talk to fixed income guys, they were streaked out today. i agree with brian. the systemic risk, this starts to introduce.

japan is hemming and hawing into a revolutionary new, you know, boj policy that's been painful. and this ultimately may be, you know, more ammunition for markets to go higher, but this was a significant event. >> i'm a u.s. investor, i'm sitting here, do i care about the blowups going on in japan? >> sure, look at the u.s. bond market. >> look at aflac and prudential today. they got crushed today. >> that's fine and good, but take a look at the reversals we saw in some of -- >> for one day. >> but melissa's point is, yes, you have to be concerned with it, but the equity market is still right around record highs. so, do you continue to buy the equity market or continue to be invested? that's the question. >> isn't that a reason to be concerned though? we traded down to 1538 on the s&p. it held it. i don't think it had to trade through there today. if you look at where the risk reward is, going into earnings season, expecting the first downdraft in earnings and, again, we expected this the last couple of quarters. >> i thought we held in pretty

decently, considering where we opened on the day. >> yeah, i did, too. want to add to some of our bank exposure, which we did. that would sort of fly in the face of what you guys are saying. bought bank of america, citigroup. i don't know. let me ask you a question. in the -- >> yes, ma'am? >> okay. >> hi. >> do you think that there will be any success in their attempt to reinflate the economy there? >> i think they have to do things that they've never done before. and i think to the extent that they are actually going for a reinflationary element. people think that the bank of japan has been loose for a long time. they have not been. in fact, running a deficit is something they have not wanted to do. so, this is something, i think, can work. but i look at the string that -- i'm not saying i'm a believer in central bank policy around the world right now. i'm saying i believe that japan poses a risk to markets and in that sense we have to be -- >> you look at the screen, we just ran the market leaders. if you look at it, what's been leading the markets? utilities, staples, things that

people are worried about. they are looking for dividend. they are looking to see when the market crashes. if you want to hide out in xlu, you can do that, or mcdonald's. >> let's move on here. march the weakest month of job creation since last june but the rate fell to its lowest level since december 2008. what is behind the weakness here? let's go to the chief u.s. economist at deutsche bank. joe -- >> nice to have you in person. >> exactly. >> i'm not experienced, a quick run out with the chair. feel like it should be in rollers. >> next time. that's a great idea. in terms of this report, do you think that this is a one data point or do you think that this is a sign of things to come? >> it's one data point. it's a bad data point. >> yeah. >> and a lot of data have been lousy over the past month, no question. and it's fanning fears of yet another springtime slowdown, but given me a break, i mean, this report is so flimsy with so many revisions. we could find out that job growth was zero or 200,000. and that would be well within the range of error. >> so, this is just one data

point, i agree with that. what makes a trend? three data points? >> i would say, yeah, three, four data points. the problem, karen, is that we have the claims numbers, which are usually very good. moving up tremendously over the past few weeks. of course, i would say that's due to easter. we had the easter holiday. they don't adjust for it. i know it sounds like it's an excuse. let's see where we are a few weeks from now. if claims are back down through 350, then i think you can be pretty confident this march number was an aberration or not an aberration, but temporary. >> yeah, but joe, is it more about -- we heard the economists argue about it, is it about the payroll tax, the health care reform? what is it about that keeps people from hiring right now in your opinion? i know it's one data point, but there's got to be a reason why we see the jobs just fall off. >> the argument would be the sequester. that the sequester really just got people to freeze. there wasn't a lot of job loss. just wasn't a lot of hiring. and that cost people to hold off, not hire. we saw consumer sentiment. first half of the month, very

low. almost recessionary type reading. back hatch of the month, biggest revision in the history of the series. clearly, march could be a tale of two different months. if claims start to move lower, that's going to give us confidence that it was just a psychological shock. very cold weather didn't help. we've had warm weather recently. and therefore, it's a one off. or maybe a two off. you get a little bit of a delay -- >> other data points we got before, like retail sales numbers, where we said, maybe the sequester not having an impact so far on the economy. we're entering earnings season and we're going to be in a period where there are conference calls and probably going to be the kitchen sink excuse -- >> just like the fourth quarter. >> what is your outlook? do you think we'll see a lower, revision lowers because it's just a safer thing to do to take down expectation sngs. >> i tprofit growths will be 7%, 8% this year. i don't think profits are cratering. steve, you mentioned about the fiscal drag. the payroll tax was a big hit

and yet consumer spending looks like it accelerated in the first quarter -- >> because confidence is high. >> confidence is high and i think underlying job growth is pretty decent. let's not forget. we've had a consistent pattern of upward revisions to employment over the last 2 1/2 years that have averaged 70,000 a month. so, it's very easy to get very pessimistic here. and i think that's the wrong way to look at it. however, people are looking at the last few years and saying, but we've had the spring slowdowns, equity markets have -- >> sell. >> but what they're failing to realize is that the housing market is recovering. >> that's the differences? >> home prices are up 10% year on year through february. that's a big boost to the consumer, big boost toen banks. banks now are lending. and household debt to income is back to where it was in '03. to say this is a repeat, it could happen, but boy, it really neglects some of the positives. >> so, the bottom line is, joe, you are still as optimistic -- >> optimistic. equity prices, i believe, are going significantly higher this year and i think yields are

going higher with them. >> joe, good to see you. >> thank you. >> let's move onto health care. it is our trade of the week. the sector gain on the news of the government's reversal of the medicare advantage insurance plan payout rate. humana, in particular, up big time this week. grasso, what do you do with these names? >> you should be selling them off this pop. the whole space was up. but the trade has been to be long the hospitals, short the hmos. you saw that unwind to a certain extent. but a lot of the names feel very topee. you have to look back, when the supreme court hearing -- all the names are up dramatically from last summer, so, don't just look at this last couple of weeks, look at it from last year. >> but i think a lot has changed in the underlying story since that time. if you think about unemployment and that improving and all of those people having -- >> is it -- are we still improving? >> well, we didn't improve today. but i this i the economy

improved, the picture improved and i think there's more clarity. we've did get that very positive cms data. >> it was positive, but there's a couple other issues you have to look at. there's going to be a premium tax put on. because when all obama care is implemented, they can actually make less money. so, this medicare advantage number that everyone thinks was a lot better could actually turn around and be worse, they can make less money off this though the headline risk was for those ratios. >> what's your top pick? >> i would be selling on all -- i used to own aetna, i'm out of the name and the space. coming up, while coal could be one of your best plays, even as the market stumbles into the weekend. the biggest stock movers of the week. and later on, "fast money" madness. today's faceoff will determine the last stock to move to the championship round. back right after this. ♪ ♪ s ♪

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welcome back. i'm kate kelly with some breaking news. the department of justice appears to be close to a resolution with several spirits companies over a proposed merger in that space. we're just looking at an announcement from constellation brands, saying they have reached an agreement in principle with the u.s. doj on a proposed

resolution to the doj's litigation challenging anheuser's busch proposed acquisition in the remaining take in grow poe modell low. the release says the parties in the doj have asked to extend the stay of proceedings, the limit on this merger until april 23rd, 2013. that will give the parties a chance to finalize the agreement they have reached and presumably go forward with this deal sometime after that, melissa. so, it looks like a positive development for those in favor of this constellation, rather, this anheuser-busch deal. >> all right, kate kelly, thank you for that. you see there, stz shares trading higher by more than 1%. tim, you've been in this -- >> to me, constellation was clearly the one that benefited from this. the department of justice not stepped in, this would be a $43 stock. but they get the distribution rights, they get a much better deal with crown. i think people don't know how to value it. because they have a fantastic

dr distribution in the states. >> let's get to a bright spot in today's largely down day. the coal stocks moving higher. we should point out that goldman sachs had a very bullish note out, saying 10% increase in demand, specifically for thermal coal. this has been a common theme. >> and look at nat gas, up over 4%. it's been up for the last six months or so. so, that's what these coal stocks are really trading off. it's important that you look at the thermal coal stocks because the coal that goes into steel making, that's not going to do as well. these guys can benefit from higher nat gas prices. >> you want to look at aci, cld -- >> they weren't on the list -- >> who cares? ask goldman about oil. sorry. nice headquarters, beautiful building. cld, aci. they have a lower benchmark with nat gas to become attractive. so, there's where i would look

for a lot of beta. but don't judge it on one day's move. >> i would be scared of this move. i would be scared of this move. i think this is a short covering rally by guy s that could take chips off the table. a lot of people leaning against this. >> all right, let's get a market flash here. josh lipton at the desk what are you watching? >> hey, melissa. j jcpenney, two headlines. one, bill ackman throwing down on the man he picked to turn around the retailer. the criticism is well deserved, ackman said today of ron johnson, ackman said. the retailer today starting to roll out its new home furnishing departments. that stock finishes up 2.5% today. melissa, back to you. >> josh, thank you. karen, jcpenney. you believe this move here, maybe there are signs of life. maybe this home goods rollout, better than expected. >> maybe. maybe. maybe a unicorn will dance through -- i don't know. i can't rule it out. but i just -- >> love unicorns.

>> do you? >> rainbow unicorns,s herb esp. >> i'm sure the stores look fantastic. the problem is, the 90%, 70% -- >> unicorn. >> the rest of the store -- there, forget it. i'm covering everything. i love it. i love it. >> all right. let's hit our friday edition of pops and drops. the biggest movers of the week. a drop here for f-5 networks, down 17% on the week. beeks? >> most of that happened today it was because of earnings. it was a bad week and a bad day to miss earnings. again, people are talking about this being company-specific. when you start to track them together, i think you probably look more like sector specific. >> drop for phillips 66. grasso? >> a lot of head wings -- head winds -- >> on unicorns. >> that's right. i would stay away from these names. i was long valero. i dropped out. >> drop for yum brands. tim? >> the theme for this week,

multinationals that are running into problems in china. they are under attack. yum is no different and the stakes have probably gotten right with at least fears of the asian bird flu coming back for this company. i think you take an opportunity to buy the weakness, but not here. >> pop for best buy, up 15% on the week. karen? >> totally without me. i don't get it. i think you asked me about this stock at 21 or 22 -- >> yeah, probably. >> so, here, certainly not. i don't -- >> that was a street fight i won, by the way. >> was it? >> you won it, tim tim. that was your first one ever, tim tim. >> easy to remember when you won one. >> oh. >> just letting you know. >> those were the biggest moves of the week. let's look back at the best moments this week on "fast." >> what's the corn cob? you got to say it. you threw it out there. >> you threw it out there. now we're all wondering. >> we might have to do a whole show. >> one of my prized position is a new zealand five signed by sir end monday hillary, may 14th of 1953, i think. >> you have that, too?

>> bookmark -- >> melville. 1840 something, 365 pages,ish. >> i don't feel sill little for asking for clarification. >> time for the final trade. go around the horn. >> dr. j? >> julio cesar at the met tonight. >> oh, what a great week. coming up next, what's on our trader's watch list as we get ready for a key week ahead. and a major industrial company faces off against one of the world's biggest banks. which stock will make it into the "fast money" madness championship? find out next. plus, your first moves for monday. much more "fast" straight ahead.

let's fast forward right now to the watch list for next week. alcoa kicks off earnings season on wednesdmonday. at the end of the week, jpmorgan reports first quarter earnings results. how are our traders preparing for what could be a very big week. karen, i would imagine the financials really, i mean, alcoa kicks off the week but the financials are in focus. >> for me, that's the biggest thing of the week. so, jp who morgan, not just important for them, wells fargo, actually, we just looked up, reports the same day. important for a lot of things but obviously important for citi and bank of america, as well. and with the recent pull-back, i'm happy to own them going into this earnings release. >> beekers? >> it's the fomc minutes. alcoa kicks it off. the last time they were really important, i was buying husky does kat saerm ears. >> i was a husky kid. >> very honest. >> why the minutes?

it feels like there are fed officials talking all the time and no mystery as to where they stand -- >> i'm hoping to see what their thoughts are on the sequester, whether or not they have the ability to change the business cycle, which i don't think they do. but they don't have the ability -- bernanke said this, he doesn't have the ability to offset what's going on in the fiscal tightening side. >> grasso? >> same way that the jobs put a little bit of a harness on people wanting to take a position this week, that's what jpmorgan and wells fargo are going to do next week. you want to be dumping this marketplace, because that means that no one cares what's coming at the end of the week. >> tim? >> we talked about the fed. that's number one. but let's talk about retail sales on friday and then consumer sentiment. so, you have two places where joe said, it's about consumer sentiment. that's what's going on here, the strength in the housing market. i wonder if some of this is circular. if the stock market and the housing market weren't better, would we actually feel better about this economy and therefore, i think, the fed has a lot to do with that. you have to watch to see how we rebound after this job number. >> all right, time for "fast

money" madness. we started with 64 stocks from four different regions, competition has been fierce. we're now left with just google an one more stock that will be determined tonight. so, which one will be the last name to advance to the championship game? it all comes down to the number one seed from the financials region, bank of america. and number two seed from the industrial region, honeywell. so, let's turn to the traders for this match-up. beekers? your pick? >> well, you know, either of them i'm not that happy about buying, but of the two, i'll buy bank of america. because i don't want to be in the industrial space and that's where honeywell is going to be. bank of america is my pick. >> karen? >> i'm going with bank of america, also. i also like the u.s.-ness of it. and the valuation. like it a lot. >> bank of america. can only mean that honeywell is going to win. but bank of america, i'm looking to add. i want to see how it acts next week and the first couple of days. >> tim, your vote really doesn't matter, but -- >> it always matters, mel. and i will say bank of america

because i've been saying it all along. on valuation, even, price to tangible book, .85, this is a company that's been rocking it aptd the money center banks are the ones that are going to do the best in the first quarter. >> we tallied all the twitter votes and your vote out there doesn't matter, either, because it's been a clean sweep on the desk, but you went against this desk and chose honeywell. >> oh, wow. >> all the guys here picked bank of america. beekers, tell the viewers why they might be wrong. >> if the economy continues to get weak globally as it has been, honeywell is going to do a lot worse than bank of america. as karen said, at least bank of america has the u.s., which isn't cratering like europe is, so, that's why they could be wrong. >> all right. let's, for a recap for how the competition unfolded, check out the full bracket at cnbc.com and tune in monday for the championship game. remember, you can get in on the action by tweeting us and telling us which stock you are betting. use #fastmoneymadness. i know you guys want to have

beer and boneless wings -- >> we don't drink, mel. >> that's the big thing, boneless wings. >> really? >> yes. >> how do they make them? >> they raise chickens without bones. time for the final trade. go around the horn here. tim? >> i think australia and the company, economy, i would be a sell earl of the dollar, which is unnaturally high here. fxa, sell. >> grasso? >> i'm going to stick with the theme. arch coal. put yourself with a $5 stop. this space has been out of favor. this would be a one week wonder. just keep yourself with a $5 low. >> karen? >> it's a little bit of deja vu. citigroup, i like it. cheap on a price to book. .8-ish, give or take. very cheap. >> beekers? >> so, i'm going to go up to canada, i'm going to short it. they -- >> that is so mean. >> i know. nothing against the canadians.

>> huge buyer of canada. >> their economy is not as good as anybody elses. they lost jobs, actually, today, so, you short ewc. >> lose that tie by monday? >> thanks for watching. see you monday at 5:00 for more "fa "fast." meantime, "options action" begins after this break. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪