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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  April 29, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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a year earlier. why? was the infrastructure any better? was there a population boom? was the school system better? no. the prices were going higher just because. we all know how that turned out. enter 2013 and all this hype surrounding so-called bit coins, which is a virtual currency with no government backing. at the highs the bit coin was worth $250. what is a bit coin? what is the fundamental reason to own bit coins? we are back to fundamentals. if it's too good to be true, it probably is. that'll do it for "closing bell" tonight. thank you so much forring joining us. i'll see you tomorrow live from l.a. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. here's what fvt f"fast" is foll tonight. sell in main a look at whether bulls will retreat and give investors a trooenz worry. what the charts are telling us right now. if you get into the temptation to buy gold miners you may take a hit. what is worrying commodities
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beginning dennis gartman? how the company behind morton's steakhouse and rainforest cafe, tim's favorite-s cashing in. even as commodity prices rise and americans deal with the payroll tax hike. we're talking the post-game analysis and setup for tomorrow mornling with pete najarian, tim seymour, steve grasso and guy adami. let's get straight to the markets of the s&p achieving a record close. is the recent momentum in tech here to stay or just ahead? pretty notable moves here. let's start off with apple. nice climb mid-session and it really stuck to it, guy. >> traded down through -- we flagged 38 a while ago. i think 381 was the low. it's had obviously a nice move. it did sort of what we talked about. you wanted the washout in earnings followed by a rally. it gave you a head fake because you had that initial pop back to earnings but here at 430 or so i hate to be wishy-washy in this one but i'm going to hold. now it's got to prove itself. i think it's got to close above 450 450 in a somewhat meaningful way over a couple days or so for
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me to get interested once again. >> is it still wait and see, pete? >> i think it's still wait and see. but i also think it's still a buy as well. i think there are opportunities in front in apple. we talked about these levels somewhere near that $400. wovls v obviously wee had a pretty nice run off of that. but when you look at cash flows and you look at the fact they did give people what they wanted. i'm not talking about the dividend. i'm talking about the cash repurchase. when you're talking about 50, 60 billion dollars in that. that's something that definitely supports the stock from the down side. i think in any move toward $400 you've got your put in place right now because i think the company steps in and buys the stock. >> with all due respect i feel like we could have said that the last time -- >> no. we couldn't. you did not have the repurchase. >> you definitely have questions answered. >> we're talking 50 or 60 billion dollars is going to go into that. so this is a completely different -- and we talked about this being a second half story. >> reported earnings and had the share repurchase and the buybacks. blah, blah, blah. not even that. not even that could get the stock -- >> the weekend's out of there, which is out of there. the weak hands are now gone. >> i don't know how you shook them out. what i think you're saying in terms of zblsh we shook them out
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from the $600 buyers. >> but i don't know that that earnings number was a place where you shook out the -- all the weaker hands. i think around 380 you know you've got very good support. i think what came out of those numbers were i think the real question's for apple on gross margins. i think people start to see it in the third or fourth quarter tops. and i think ultimately this is a 505 target, this is a 3% div yield. i think you do have real institution that's are now able to get back in this stock for the dividend yield alone. >> so it's a buy? >> it's a buy. >> it is still a buy. and to tim's point and pete's point, you have to have an entrance here. and your entrance is above 40-420. as long as it holds there, you're in good shape. i'm still long the name. i'm happy be long the name. i don't think the headwinds are completely out of the way. but i think it's tradable, you ride this back to 500. >> ibm, nice move here and of course that big revenue miss really killed it the day -- >> they'll do it again. i think at 200 or wherever we are now i think this is no man's land for the stock.
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that last quarter was not a great quarter. especially for ibm, who has consistently done a great job into earnings and post-earnings. so here at 200 i think they get the benefit of what's been a tremendous tape in the s&p. but it's -- again, it's got to prove it to me and prove it to me means closing above 215, which we obviously haven't seen. at 200 it's a best to hold. >> the interesting thing now is the ibm dividend yield doesn't look that high sxhpd to apple's. now it's 1.7%. >> there's absolutely other places you can hide if that's exactly what you're trying to, do which is hide in some of these dividend yields. i agree with guy right now. now at $200 a share what's the up side? are we going to get to 215 or 220? when you're talking about a percentage gain that's nothing right now. i would rather be in other places where i can get some absolute returns on my money rather than $200 going to 215. >> so hold for pete. how about you? >> i would be a holder because you don't want to say sell ibm. but it does have the ability to stay below its moving averages for quite some time. and that would shake out a lot of people that have been buying and holding ibm. at best you have a stock that
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moves sideways. i think there's much better places to put your money. >> i think you do throw a sell in it. first of all, at 200 you've got the 200 moving-day. at 215 as pete said you've got major, major resistance -- >> does that mean you would short it -- >> i would be a seller if i owned the stock. and ultimately what i see with the hardware that number in the first quarter was not good. there's more pressure there. the bottom line, they've been beating, they missed this quarter. the top line, they've been missing on. they found a way to beat on the bottom line. i don't know how they're doing it. but i don't think that their software business is impervious from competition as people think. if you look at where the stock, it's been nowhere for the last six months ultimately and i think that's a bad sign in a bull rally. i'd sell the stock here. >> do you think it underperforms technology overall? and i asked you that because -- >> absolutely. >> -- if you look at the xlk which is the etf that tracks technology, right? the dividend yield for that is 1.74%. ibm is actually lower. >> i don't think you need to be there. i think hardware is going to be a lead balloon on this stock. >> next up, google here. guy. >> the problem with saying buy is you're going to see
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significant moves to the down side but since 2008 or so you've seen some incredible moves to the down side that flushed people out. but here we are at 820, within 20 bucks or soft all-time high of the stock. i think it's still slow and steady wins the race. valuation, it's not rich. the moves are going to be dramatic but i think at the end of the day the moves are going to still be higher. have a drink out there at the end of the day but i'm a buyer of google. >> if google was the atm for apple shares or vice versa, if apple was the atm for google shares on the way up, can we have both rise? because liked apple. >> no. i'm going to say it's a sell. this is where guy and i are going to disagree. i'm watching the margins compressing now for google. google in my opinion this is a one trick pony. they've done a great job in search forever with the desktop but how are they going to do with mobile? i think there is more competition with the mobile space. we're not guaranteed they're going to do outstanding once again. this when i look at a multiple of 24 times times earnings present, even you this go ahead at 15 times i think apple's money is going to go back into apple and out of google. >> what about youtube?
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what about google fiber? so you have a couple of different plays. and youtube actually is monetized right now. >> from the rest of those, though, outside of ads in the revenues as far as google's concerned -- >> it was 5% of rev, heading toward 10. they're just starting to monetize that. that is a serious gold mine. i think people look at if as google glass or a self-drive car that's never going to move the needle but youtube. youtube right now is moving the need sxl will continue to do so. >> tim loves google glass. >> i have a fur headband that looks like google glass. just kidding. but google's a sell here again. pete's right. margin pressure significant there. these guys are also motorola, also another lead balloon on these guys. this stock has been a -- it's been a go-to guy in the absence of any real big megacap plays in tech because there's been other problems and it's going to get to us microsoft, which is -- >> what about android, though? 70% of all smartphones. that's a revenue stream even --? it's not a revenue stream. >> so if they don't charge for it it's not a revenue stream. >> every time you buy an app that's an android-based app they
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get 30%. >> but android's been a force for three years now. they're looking at the gross margin and ultimately this is not happening. >> 70%. >> good debate here but let's move on to microsoft here. have we finally broken out of a range, guy, on microsoft? >> i thought that a nuv times and each time it's been -- >> we're a whisper away. >> whisper away but each time it's led back down -- i think at the upper end of a range we've seen for a while, this 27 1/2 to 132. i think it's a hold. >> i think you can own microsoft. i think it's breaking to the up side. i think one part of it that a lot of people are mission is cloud computing. i think that's where they're going to kill it. i think microsoft's got a lot more up side. when you look at the dividend yield and what it's trading at right now as a multiple, very cheap. >> you get your yield here, close to 3% yield but you are running into serious technical resistance. $33 is your wall and above that it's 37. but i'm not sure they get through 33. >> the cloud. these guys are make a move. mr. softy hasn't seen a move
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like this really -- this almost looks like 1999 for this stock. i think people actually believe that they're making some room in the cloud and they're making room -- we know windows is dead. we know they got pun rkd for a bad release. we know pc demand is dying. the rest of this product, xbox product refresh, you can stay in this stock. >> we had some pretty big moves in technology today, helping to drive the markets higher. at the same time very good performance by some of the defensive names. and in fact investors searching for higher yields have paid up for shares of defensive dividendend-paying krngsz all-time high. what does this mean in the end for the trade? tobias lefkovichp at citigroup. nice to have you with us. >> nice to be here. >> if there are signs of life in technology, does that mean necessarily we'll see monomoving out of the defensives? >> i think we've got to be a little careful when we talk about the term defensives and aggressives. what we've really seen is a split between international and domestic. and that's showing up in things like materials being weak because of the international weakness, europe being a real drag and obviously emerging
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economies not growing as fast as people anticipated. on the other hand, some of the cyclicals, domestic, retailing, media, transportation all doing well. we've got to get a little off this defensive aggressive argument. and as far as the dividend stuff, given where the spreads are between cash yields and dividend yields today, we haven't seen this since the 1950'. so a lot of people talking about the valuation parameters relative to the last five, ten years really missing the qualitative overlay. i would be worried and i would take profits in areas like consumer staples and health care. utilities have a much better evaluation story for them. >> getting back to credit positions where you just started off there, what is it telling you about the market? i know your stance on this and how far out is it a leading indicator? what can we expect from the back snend. >> if you look at credit conditions, either the federal reserve board's loan standard survey or the ecbs and they're actually going in different directions. the u.s. is actually looking pretty good. it's a nine-month lead on investment activities. so capital investment, jobs investment, working capital i, industrial production, those kinds of things, positive news. europe a whole different story.
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corporate credit is very tight in europe and it kind of suggests the cast -- or the die is cast for the second half in europe, being very weak. and that's not great for certain industries like autos, materials, capital goods. >> tobias, we're talking about europe. we've got an ecb meeting this week, the fed tomorrow. ecb everyone has baked in a big cut here. they don't have a hot of room to cut. first of all, i see a lot of disappointment there, and i don't know. how do you handicap the central banks sneer because we have an fomc and if you look at where the volatility has come from this market, it hasn't come out of earnings. it's come out of the central bank liquidity gain, which we still don't know what's up. >> we're pretty sure that the u.s. is not going to see any major pullback. if they ease back on some of the purchasing, which is what people talk about, going from 85 billion to 55 billion -- >> even a mention of taper had the market very scared. >> i think it causes a near ferm -- one of the concerns we have for the second half we think markets will continue to rally this year and certainly the next couple of months. the sell in may go away kind of concept. i would worry more about august angst than sell in may as we start seeing more weakness out
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of europe and things like that. and potentially some commentary around the fed pulling back. those are the issues. europe can't -- i've read the same thing you have, that europe can go as much as half a point on a rate cut. but then, you know, does that translate all the way down to the corporate sector? and banks aren't really allowing it. i'm happy with today's rally. i think it's celebrating my son's 20th birthday. >> is he watching? >> i don't know. >> happy birthday. >> happy birthday, ralph. we couldn't get him fireworks. this is the closest we could provide. >> just to button this up, tobias, the history, if you take a look at the performance of the s&p 500, really does support the sell in may sort of thesis if you take a look at the numbers. but you're saying no, continue to hold and then maybe sell in august? >> i think we're going to rally another 50, 60, 70 points in the np and then we'll probably start to worry a little bit more about the second half earnings story, then we'll start to worry more about what the fed might do. you get to the jackson hole
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meeting. people start kind of whispering about it. those are the kinds of time frames we talk about. we've been first half bulls and we've had concerns about the second half. >> tobias levkovich of citi. big after-hours movers because we've got quite a few of them. express scripts trading higher it beat on both the top and bottom lines. another earnings mover hartford financial trading lower. pretty sharply in q1 results. earnings beat the street but earnings premiums missed estimates. the stock has come off its lows in extended hours. coming up, the biggest movers in today's trading plus sell in may or sick to stocks. what the charts on a technical basis are telling us right now. and we take the pulse of the restaurant industry from the man behind some of america's most popular chains. much more "fast" straight ahead. cond. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price -- maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason
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shares shares of riverbed technologies moving in the after-hours session following the company's first quarter earnings report. josh lipton back at hq with the latest. >> riverbed technology disappointing investors. the network equipment maker ticker rvbd misses on both the bottom and top lines. the ceo saying weak government spending and general economic softness impacted results. more important, the outlook the company gave forecasts for the second quarter that undershot what analysts expected. that stock down more than 7% in
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the after-hours. melissa, back to you. >> thank you, josh lipton. who are they losing share to, pete? >> part of the problem as well, i think josh saw this as well as the acquisition of opnet. there's a whole combination of things that all added up for this quarter to not be very good for riverbed. last quarter the stock was a $20 stock that had pulled all the way back to 16, then 14 before somewhat of a rally going into this number. obviously, there's disappointment. i think on this weakness going into the second half, actually, it's probably a great opportunity. something i'll be looking very closely at tomorrow. >> well, the stock's at record highs. is it time to follow the old adage of sell m n. may or go away or is that just a bunch of baloney? craig giants senior technical analyst at piper jaffray. ing cray whashs do you see in the charts? do you think we're going higher? >> i definitely think we're going higher. we've been a bull since last august and we continue to see the broader market making a series of higher highs and higher lows. >> steady as she goes the rest of the year or are we going through a pullback?
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there are concerns about the second half. we just had tobias levkovich on from citi. he's worried about august on a fundamental basis. >> we think we're going to hit 1700 sometime this year. again, this is a projection we laid out last august. and we just got back marketing throughout europe over the last two weeks. and i have to tell you, there's a lot of individuals and a lot of investors that are very skeptical about this market. and as we all know, that when you have a lot of skepticism in the market it's typically continued to be a bullish sign for overall markets as people still do not believe. i also just mention that a lot of investors are really hoping for some sort of pullback in this marketplace and they're waiting for. and i that i they're really waiting for this kind of sell in may and go away phenomenon to take place. but i'll tell you, if that sell in may does not happen i think you're going to see a lot of money come into this market as investors are going to be chasing it. >> so basically, right now you're saying buy now, not sell in may, buy now? >> i'm saying buy any sort of pullbacks. we continue to think we're going to continue to grind higher
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toward 1700 this year. >> krarks real quick, where is your line in the sand if we do see that pullback where you shouldn't be a buyer of that dip? >> you know, take a hard look at the rising 50-day moving average. that's a support level we've bounced off of two, three times over the last several months in here. and that's really going to be the key test of support is that rising 50-day moving average. >> you've got a couple stocks here, craig. you like ford. what do you see in the charts? >> take a look at the weekly chart of ford. it's make a huge multiyear rounding bottom. it's very constructive. some of the problems we've seen with the economy have we will been due to housing and autos really not participating. but when you pull up this long-term chart of ford on a weekly basis, clearly that's a constructive bullish chart. and i think we can come back and retest the highs we've seen toward the $18, $19 range. again, very positive we think for the economy. >> and you don't like ebay here. why not? >> yeah, we recently added ford into the model portfolio for us today, and we sold out ebay. i'm concerned that this retest
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of the long-term uptrend support line that's been intact since really over the past year and change is really being thoroughly tested. i'm concerned with the broader market hitting all-time new highs. ebay's pulling back and really retesting a big uptrend support line and really tech stocks are showing weak relative strength. there's better opportunities and we think ford is it. >> tech stocks in general you said showing weak relative strength. so the momentum or the strength we saw in today's session, you're skeptical of it? >> i am definitely short-term skeptical on the tech stocks. as i look at the long-term trends, the relative strength trends, they're still facing -- they're still going lower. and from my perspective what we're seeing today in the markets is very similar to what we saw in the early 1980s. we've got a lot of investors questioning why we're seeing the consumer staples sector working, why we're seeing utility stocks working. why we're seeing financials working. my friends, this is exactly what we had seen in the early 1980s. history is repeating itself to a degree here. >> craig, great to speak with
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you. >> and this is bullish. thank you. >> craig johnson of piper jaffray. are you also a skeptic, guy adami, of the technology sector? >> the technology sector? a little bit. i thought it was interesting. he mentioned ford, and i don't see that in the charts but what i do see that's interesting, the autos, and we talked about it a week and a half two, weeks ago-s toyota motors, who i think made another 52-week high today. if you believe the weakness in the general is going to continue, which sort of do believe, i do think the best way to play it is with tm. >> pops and drops. the big movers of the session. we kick it off way pop for deere, up 4%. tim. >> the other part of this rally over the last couple of days has been materials pl deere more or less has caught a dip where caterpillar sees -- 13% off its lows, recent lows. i think you play this to 95 and i think you pull. >> drop for las vegas sands down 1%, pete. >> a lot of this coming off the change of the -- a lot of concerns about that. but the stock rallied off that and you look at the may 60 calls. extremely active today. i actually think this is a buying opportunity. i think las vegas sands based upon what they're doing in macau
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right now is going higher. >> pope for first solar. >> this started with them receiving a little more favorable accounting status. if you look back on where the stock has come from, 150 and where it's traded down to it's done a lot of retrace on its own. i would not be a buyer here yet i'd be so scared to sell this thing. >> bought for jcp up 1%, guy. >> i think ultimately the stock fails but i think right now it's a bad company, but the stock is very interesting. you have obviously the news with soros last week. i think the stock continues higher from here. the flushout was when we saw it traded to 13 1/2 on huge volume. there's still up side momentum. >> and a drop for tim tebow. >> what? >> a literal drop. super hot quarterback tim tebow has been officially dropped from the new york jets. >> that's a pop. >> the move came after no other team was willing to intercept tim tebow in a trade. now the jets are left with five remaining quarterbacks on the roster and tim tebow is left wondering where he will play next. >> name three of them. name three of them.
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>> not a pop for a guy that was basically in an insane asylum in new york. it was ridiculous what the jets did to him. but peter, i'd defer to our nfl -- >> they never gave him a chance. so we have no ability to ascertain whether or not tim tebow was any good or not. go back to college, he was outstanding. that year with the denver broncos was unbelievable. he will fit in somewhere in the nfl. >> but get him away from the jets. i mean, that alone has got to be a pop. >> yeah, that's a pop for the jets. but they grabbed what they wanted. geno smith, that's their man of the future. that's why -- >> this is why you're on nbc sports. >> that's right. tomorrow night. >> nice plug for our sister channel. coming up next make room for one more on twitter. >> what? >> that's me. the @melissaleecnbc handle goes live tonight. >> finally. >> finally. next block. i tweet. i hope i don't do a typo. and why investing in gold miners may leave you high and dry. commodities king dennis gartman joins us next. more "fast" straight ahead.
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>> >> "fast money" means tradinadin everybody's got to bring their best information each and every night. the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. >> it's idea generation. it's all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. as the world has changed, our show has evolved. i am guy adami. i am "fast money." >> i am pete najarian. i am "fast money." >> are you "fast money"? go to the nbc universal store and order your "fast money" tee. run with the big dogs. (announcer) at scottrade, our clients trade and invest exactly how they want. with scottrade's online banking, i get one view of my bank and brokerage accounts with one login... to easily move my money when i need to. plus, when i call my local scottrade office, i can talk to someone who knows how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. awarded five-stars from smartmoney magazine.
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newmont mining slipping almost 2% after hours. disappointing first quarter earnings. the company missing on both the top and bottom lines here. so how do we trade this? what would you say about the miners? because they all showed strength today off that citi note. >> it's a very difficult transition for these guys to get their costs under control. these guys showed that in this quarter. i think ultimately these guys are very interesting but they have to get their hedges in place and they ultimately have to close down a lot of mines. gfi's already started to do this. they've gotten rid of higher risk, higher capex production and i think they've stayed with more cash-yielding production. and i think this is what you have to find. you have to look through them, you can't trade them all the same way.
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>> let's pose this question to the commodities king himself. are miners in fact the best way to play this rebound in gold that we've seen lately? dennis gartman say publisher of "the gartman letter." he joins us from virginia beach. dennis, great to see you. >> always good to be seen, mel. >> historically, dennis, if one believed in a rising gold environment, miners were the better way to play because they had more leverage to upside in gold, as they have leverage to the down side also in a negative way. so where do you stand on the miners at this point? >> i hate them. there's no reason in the world to own a miner at this point. i'm going to make several of my largest clients unhappy with saying that. but for the last four years if you have owned gold it's one thing, if you owned gold etf you've hurt but you haven't hurt that badly. if you held gold futures you've been hurt but you haven't been hurt that badly. if you've held any miner, and i don't care whether it's a junior or whether it's a senior, you have been hurt badly on a consistent basis. why would you own -- the bet is always to own gold.
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why would you own the miners at this point? exposing yourself to management problems, exposing yourself to hedging problems, exposing yourself to mother nature's problems. exposing yourself to miners, a union's problems. if you're going to make the implied bet on gold, bet on gold. there will come a time, some point in the future when the miners will outperform gold itself that it has not -- or they have not for the past five years. and if you missed the change, if you missed the move that the miners outperformed gold sometime in the future, if you miss it by six months to a year, you'll still be early. so you don't want to own the miners and you really, really, really don't want to own the juniors. >> yeah, dennis, some of the things we've been saying for a while. sought miners -- the gold markets rallied. since barrick bought back their hedges, the gold market rallied some $400 or $500. the s&p's rallied probably 300 or so s&p points. these miners are lower. now they're at a price point, inflection point, the where somebody might pull the trigger in hedge. what does that mean if a miner comes out and says we're
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starting hedging up again, what does that mean to the stocks? what does that mean to the gold market? >> actually, i'm one of the few people who thinks that if you treat gold mining as a business, which is what barrick used to do, and hedged all their gold forward, especially when you had wonderful contangos, which you don't have now in the gold futures market but at least you knew what the price was going to be, you could hedge it at a contangoed price going forward and treat it like a mining business, i liked that company at the time. i think if you began hedging again i think it would be beneficial to the gold miners. others will argue. others will take the other side of the case. but those people who argued against the miners hedging said we want to have the exposure to gold, and that has proven to be a terrible, terrible bet over the course of the last several years as the miners have seriously underperformed the price of gold itself. >> okay. dennis, we're going to leave it there. always great to see you. >> thanks, mel. >> dennis gartman of the world-renowned "gartman letter." all right. it's a very important day for me here. >> go ahead. >> because i have officially joined twitter and i'm probably
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the last person out there who has -- doesn't have a twitter account. >> i wouldn't say that. there are probably a couple people in times square. but it's strange sxwlp it is strange. my handle, by the way- way-s @melissaleecnbc. and this is my first tweet which i literally just sent out. "this is the real melissa lee." >> how did you come one that -- >> contrary to popular belief, i don't hate apple. send me tickers you want to talk about torrent. >> were people really upset about your apple -- >> have you not been on the twitterverse lately? i just want to put that out there, set the record straight, and also please ask for your tweets because we are going to trade them later on in the show. @melis @melissaleecnbc. i'm happy join all you out in twitter. >> exciting day. welcome. >> you'll be offline in three days. >> shut it down. >> keep a thick skin, mel. >> coming up next from the twitter debut, time to break down internet stocks in china. but first how the company behind morton's steakhouse is finding a solid niche even as consumers feel the bite of the payroll tax hike. much more "fast" straight ahead.
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welcome back to welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq marketsite in new york's times square. word that ali baba will take a
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13% stake in cena. if you're looking to get in on these names, it can be a little tricky. let's heads to the charts with our very own ambassador tim seymour to find out how you should play it. >> it can be wild in terms of volatility and what we've seen in the china internet space over the last six months and there sbrn a lot of questions the s.e.c. jumped in. you can see the dip in november, december, this was ultimately the allegations that the accounting intransparency was something you should be worried about. when you have bellwethers like baidu going from 7% down to 8% to 10% people wonder whether the lofty valuations were worth it. morgan stanley china index. this is a listing of the top 14 names you can play that trade on the new york stock exchange and you that you can see the breakout here. so we are 29% off those december lows, but you can see the recent breakout. i think we're going higher and i think we're going higher on a couple reasons. ultimately people have gotten some clarity on what is safe to invest in, what is not. and you finally have a place to where valuations are coming down to a compelling range. here are the names again. today cena was in the news and
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cena is effectively the twitter of china. waibu is the place where people can do the same thing mel has started to do. baidu is the google of china. and baidu, which is now trading at about 15 times next year's earnings is in extremely valued territory. for a lot of people it's hands offer. no longer are people trading at a multiple that tells us they're growing. i think around $80 you have a very good floor on this stock. they got a boost today. and sohu, which is also its search, they have exposure to online games this is probably the best value in the space. i think a nice little basket here. yuku which is effectively the youtube of china, has never, ever made money. five years into this these guys are a place where people are starting to expect they can monetize. >> robin lee, the ceo of baidu, recently said on the earnings conference call essentially that it's going to take a couple years before advertisers get up to speed on mobile advertising, which is of course the bane of all these guys' existence on the internet in terms of mobile ads and monetizing that. is that a problem? are they at a disadvantage?
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>> it's a problem but they are also like google making acquisitions into the mobile space. thaef had a couple recent transactions but this is a microcosm for what's going on for all players all over the internet who have essentially used search and used e-commerce and have used all types of ways to generate business and they're going to have to do it on mobile, no different in china but notice like we do in a lost ways in the emerging markets world these guys will probably leapfrog the technology in the same way that that goes on in mobile and the pc business. >> let's move on and hit some unusual activity that we saw in delta. now, remember last week we pointed out some bullish action in the ashler. pete, what are you seeing today? >> last friday they started buying the may 17 calls. paying 33 cents on friday in the morning and now all of a sudden by today they're trading 65 cents. but we had follow-up paper as well today. buying the may 18 calls. again, over 50,000 of these trading on the day. when you look at some of the open interest in may you're going to see those expanding. you can see the may 17s already show up today. you can see the activity as well that's happening today that will show up tomorrow. a lot of folks out there betting
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that this is not over, the airlines still have some up side, particularly for delta right now. >> i don't know, guy. i think you may have caught this because you're active on the youtube. >> on the what? >> on the youtube. >> the youtube. >> the next "hunger games" installment, that is burning up the web. it's the preview to "catching fire." which i know guy's looking forward to. the movie's release is seven months away, though, but the clip has already been viewed over 24 million times on youtube. despite the hype, options traders took a dim view on lgf today. brian sullivan's been watching this action. brian, this is a stock that has been on fire. >> yeah. absolutely. i mean, this is a stock that doubled after the first "hunger games," continues to be an upside momentum here and yeah, there was some bearish activity here. a buyer of the june 23 puts for about -- or roughly around 80 cents or so. they're basically betting to the down side here. but it's a question, are these put buyers doing this az ashort on the stock or just buying insurance to protect their house, to protect their car in case it gets totaled? well, this is a stock that can get totaled.
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it has 54% debt to asset value or market cap value here. so you have to be careful that the stock deteriorates if they need to borrow capital for whatever reason for future production. but you know, folks, i think this stock can get to $30 a share here. if you look at net income from a good storyline, first movie to the sequel, sequels produce just as much net income and profits to companies, production companies here. i think that happens again for them. that should give them some nice cash flow and i think the stock moves higher. >> thanks a lot for that. brian sullivan on "options action." coming up how the company behind bubba gump shrimp is earning profits. we'll serve up some trades. and thealeecnbc handle it is real. it's not an impostor. it is me. am i following proper twitter etiquette? let me know. we'll be back right after this. ♪ please stand up, please stand up ♪ ♪
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i don't want to pour over pie charts all day. i want to travel, and i want the income to do it. ishares incomes etfs. low cost and diversified. find out why nine out of ten large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus, which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. welcome back to welcome back to "fast money." i'm josh lipton. we are watching buffalo wild wings. higher in the after hours. a big miss on the bottom line. but revenue slightly beats. same-store sales also better than expected and up 5.2% so far
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in april. the company's ceo, sally smith, saying wing costs are trending down, easing margin pressures. and she says watch out for more tv ads during nba games and the ncaa sponsorship, she says, providing more marketing opportunities for the company. so wings and b-ball, mel. the stock up about 3.6% right now. >> big move in the after hours. thank you for, that josh lipton. and it's interesting because if you take a look at a chart of wing prices in the past two weeks they have tremendously come down. and at the same time a lot of these companies out there have been promoting boneless wings, which are actually cheaper per pound than bone-in wings. >> that's cheating, by the way. >> what are you talking about? >> boneless wings. >> why? >> come on. >> it's easier. it's a lot less messy. >> you've got to -- >> too easy? >> you've got to work the bone. right, guy? >> you know what? >> i'm not even going to -- >> i get in trouble and you you said it. >> he's drowning. he's pulling you in. >> nobody's in trouble. just making a point.
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>> pete, you're cheering the stock on. >> going into this number if you looked across the street everybody started to jump onto this story and a lot of that had to do with they had been watching those prices come down for the wings, down about 25% from the upper end. so these margins are going to really start to show up in the forward quarters. and when you look at the same-store sales stronger as well. i think this stock's going to be poised to get up near 110, maybe even push that 120 level. >> 30 times earnings, though. it's a very expensive stock -- >> but they're outparticipation the rest of the old quick-serve diner stock. >> you can't grow forever. >> let's play the good, the bad, and the ugly. >> love this game. >> yeah. especially when it stars you, guy adami. >> oh. >> first the good. back in february guy took on beaks in a street fight on general mills. take a listen. >> bulls first. listen, i can't eat their products but i've loved this stock for a while. favorable p compared to kellogg's. they're cheaper than kellogg's. and look at their international growth. 25% of their revenues now come internationally.
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and i think that number's going to continue to trend in that direction. >> mm. the stock has been -- it's a scary stock. general mills, it's a stock that shouldn't be parabolic, yet it is. but you know what? i think it can continue to go higher from here. i think it closed north of 50. it feels like it still has some mojo. >> now on to the bad. couple months after that great general mills street fight guy had his gloves on once again, this time to debate oracle. here's what he said. ♪ >> oracle's just going higher. i'll tell you why. great recurring revenue stream. i believe these guys are the best m&a firm on the planet. yeah, they've had a few misses along the way but they integrate better than anybody else out there in terms of their acquisitions. that's how they grow. >> well, oracle's down about 9% since that bull case. so what do you do now? >> that quarter, the march 20th quarter was awful. so you know, the stock hasn't been able to now rally effectively since that quarter
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on what's been a very good tape. so it's got to cause you some concern. so i've been right for a while. i'm wrong now. i think oracle here, 32 1/2, as much as i like to say you buy this dip, i say you know what? stay away for a while. >> and now to the ugly. >> is there always ugly? >> that's the way you play the game. >> oh, look at you, miss twitter queen. >> in honor of the backstreet boys' number one fan, the boy band celebrating their 20th anniversary in -- >> are you giving us the finger there? >> in may. >> looks like guy's giving us the finger in his white sweater. >> you look good in white v-neck -- >> you didn't know i was in -- what was the name of that -- backstreet boys. >> did you wax your chest then? >> wax back, chest, legs, everything. >> ask your sister. >> who said that? get that guy right out of the studio. >> my buddy. >> coming up next, the company behind morton's steakhouse gives us the recipe for profits. the @melissaleecnbc twitter
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handle open for business. we're take orders, tweeting those tweets, the first ones live. stay with us. announcer: where can an investor be a name and not a number? scottrade. ron: i'm never alone with scottrade. i can always call or stop by my local office. they're nearby and ready to help. so when i have questions, i can talk to someone who knows exactly how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. that's why i'm with scottrade. announcer: scottrade- proud to be ranked "best overall client experience." [ agent smith ] i've found software that intrigues me. it appears it's an agent of good. ge has wired their medical hardware with innovative software to be in many places at the same time. using data to connect patients to software, to nurses
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restaurant restaurant chains' earn rgz
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reflecting the impact from the payroll tax cut and rising commodity prices but our next guest is cashing in on eating out. the chairman and ceo of landry's, the largest privately held restaurant, entertainment, and gaming company in the country joins us live from the milken conference in los angeles. always great to see you. >> hey, how are you today? great to be here. >> we are great. want to talk about one of the main headlines out of the milken conference and that is immigration. and for a huge restaurant chain, gaming chain, et cetera, such as yourself, this is a major issue for you. what would you like to see on that front and how will that impact your business? >> well, first, we've got to solve the immigration problem in this country. there's so many millions of immigrants over here and lots of companies are employing them, and they have paperwork but we don't even know if it's the right paperwork and we've got to find a way to make a great majority of these legal citizens. they're really a huge backbone of our country in helping things every day. helps get those meals on the table. it helps us in every aspect of
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business. we need to do something. it's been long enough. >> i'm curious as to how this will actually -- if we were able to legalize some of these immigrants who are here and straighten out the paperwork, et cetera, how much could that possibly save you and will that at the end of the day create more jobs? >> it would. but it would create more jobs. i think at that point, then, the whole workforce would be able to be more competitive with more coming in. and people being able to bounce around. right now there's people that get stuck in a job and they just stay there because they're so scared of even moving. and i think it would help really the wage for all your lower-income workers even go up because there would be more competitiveness out there. >> let's talk about another major of course impact on your business, and that is commodities prices. we've already heard from a number of restaurant chains who say that they're seeing some of these costs abate a bit with corn prices coming down. i'm wondering what you are
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seeing and how far out you are hedged on various, you know, proteins, for instance. >> you know what's amazing is i've never seen a restaurant go out of business because of commodity prices. i mean, we love to all talk about commodity prices, but you know, produce is going to fluctuate all the time. there's so much seafood out there that you have the ability to move different fish items and lobster items and shrimp items off your menu. you know, beef has been the one that's always spotty. beef prices are going to come down a little bit right now. i don't -- over last year we've ticked down a little bit but at the same time as the economy continues to improve you'll start seeing things tick up a little bit. but it's such a small amount in the tenths it's not going to be a problem for anybody. right now we're facing more labor costs than anything else. >> hey, tillman, i think the part of your story which i think matters the most is the demand side, the consumer demand side,
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the consumption story. talk about the other side of the politics here. the payroll tax. what are you seeing the impact on your clients, and what -- you have your finger as much on the pulse of the american consumer as anybody. not only through your restaurants but through your gambling and entertainment. so give us your view on that as well. >> absolutely. you know, first off, everybody got a shock when they opened up their paycheck in january, when the president had been saying there is no tax increase. well, $2,400 a year to everybody is $50, you know, every single week on their paycheck. so when you've got your paycheck every other week, like most people do, they were missing $100 on it. so it really did have an impact on everybody and their spending in january and february. it's just like when gas ticks up to $3.50, $4, $4.50, after a few weeks and a few months the american resilience we tend to live with it, but it definitely had an effect.
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it was sticker shock for everybody. the consumer started spending money again in march after they got used to it. but people were not expecting it, and they are spending money again. >> all right. tillman, great to see you. thanks for your time. enjoy the conference. tillman pertita, cref landry's. >> thank you very much. >> you tweeted, we traded and today it's a very special edition. as you know, i just joined twitter. i'm very excited. i've already tweeted a bun chrks as much as i can. @melissaleecnbc is my handle. let's take a look at some of the best tweets to me today. eric tweets, " @melissalee, welcome to the mental ward. thoughts about verizon?" >> they asked you. >> i don't have thoughts about verizon. how could i trade verizon? they tweet -- i'm the conduit. >> verizon is still under that camp of hunting for yield. you want to be a buyer of this. still trading at its annual high. and you still get that yield, 3.8%. i'd still be in the name. >> have we never traded tweets
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before? >> i know, but specifically they asked melissa lee. but go ahead. >> i'm the conduit. >> let's keep moving. >> thank you. alan tweets, "been waiting for my favorite cnbc-er to come out and fly. i just cashed a huge check. should i buy pfizer and sit as pretty as you?" >> i continue to like these pharma names. it doesn't matter right now whether it's eli lilly, pfizer. i think merck of all the group is the best of the breed because they have the most upside but i think pfizer got that run up to 31. this diabetes that they're working with merck right now is outstanding. i think both of them are going to do very well because of it. >> "welcome to twitter. the sxwlit team is happy to see you here." hi, dave barger. seth tweets, "i'm a close friend of guy adami and he'll vouch for me that you and i belong together. dinner tonight, xoxo." >> and she's finally off twitter. >> that was a short run. >> shortest stint ever. thank you for the invitation, but i've got plans. is that nice? >> no, it's not nice. you say i'd love to.
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where do you want to go? >> you just have to be careful with these things. he has asked nicely. >> that's true. the xoxo was a nice touch too. nice loving touch. coming up next, we've got your first move tomorrow. straight ahead. it's it's easy to get stressed out during earnings season but don't let all the headlines give you a headache. what you knee need to know about some of the biggest reports on wall street. stick around because "mad money," it's coming up next. you make a great team. it's been that way since the day you met. but your erectile dysfunction - it could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right.
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time for the time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. pete najarian. >> facebook's going to have their earnings on wednesday. i think they crush it. i think they've been leading into this earnings. i think we might test that $32 level. today there was an incredible amount of call buying. 2 to 1 calls to puts. i think facebook's going higher. >> tim "got to work the boeb" seymour. what do you say? >> love it. petrobras, a lot of people have hated this stock. up 7% after a big earnings number on friday. this is an underowned, certainly heavily shorted stock that's had a move from 14.50 up to 19 and change. take some profits here. this is a broken company here who's not instantly fixed overnight. i think it's a decent chance to get some profits out. >> steven p. grasso. >> google. i'm still long the name. i'm smelling a new annual high on this one right now. 844's the old one. i think it has the room to climb. >> you want somebody to say did
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you wear deodorant, grasso? >> exactly. but just so you don't get burned on this one, 812, that's your exit. >> guy. >> toyota motor on yen weakness. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for watching. see you tomorrow 5:30 p.m. eastern time. follow me on twitte twitter make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market in summer and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! . hey, i'm jim cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome cramerica. i'm trying to teach and coach here. so call me 1-800-743-cnbc. do you wto

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