good morning, everybody. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. stocks are rallying to records. the major average is closing higher in six of the last seven sessions. the s&p finishing yesterday at a record high and the nasdaq ended the day at its best close in 12 1/2 years. as for the dow, it has yet to have a three-day losing streak in 2013. that's kind of unbelievable. it's the first time in history that the index has gone so far into the year without those things. today, the blue chip index will shoot for its 16th straight tuesday gain. wow, 16 in a row. the two biggest gains this month have both happened to have come on tuesdays and the dow rising more than 1% on each of the last two tuesdays. by the way, the market has recovered all of the ground that it lost during the previous two weeks. u.s. equity futures this morning on top of all this are indicated just barely lower. dow futures down by less than five points. s&p futures down by 1.25 points. this will give us something to

think about on this last trading day of the month. >> and it's official, there has been no correction. remember my last -- >> anybody that was waiting for it. >> and people who thought that they were -- so the same guys we were talking about saying don't commit any money to this post past six months, they're all wrong again. >> for the last two weeks, everyone has been a little more bearish. we've got a 3% pullback. the construction is 10%. 5% is what you'd call a pullback. 3% is more of the same. that's just giving you -- that's buying a gift. that's buying a dip sfp. >> nobody said buy that dip. >> they thought it was going to be a bigger drop. right. >> if you pick up like a point or two -- >> utilities wag interesting. >> all the major s&p sectors finished the day higher. the leaders, tech and materials more than 42 stocks in 52-week highs yesterday. year-to-date, check out these

returns. the dow is now up officially 13%. the s&p about 12% and the nasdaq 10%. and you're right, we haven't had a dip. unbelievable. in early european trading, let's take a look and see how things have fared so far. the ftse down marginally. cac off major i didn'tally, as well. asian markets rising overnight following the rally on wall street yesterday. you can see it right there been the hang seng is up as is the nikkei. but, again, all this seems to be -- can i say marginal? is that fair? >> what's going to be fun is that -- and you have never been through the 80s where you go from 800 to -- >> that will be fun. >> no, you'll see where i'm going from this, 800 to 14,000 when there are good times. and we have your guy on today who i laughed at last time because you kept calling him a skeptical kind of -- it was a

pejorative. and when you're at an all-time high and you call someone a permeable, it's kind of like he's been a permable because we're at an all-time high. that minutes he's absolutely right. you can't call someone a negative permable when you're at an all-time high. >> i like jeremy a lot. he has been right over time. he was wrong once and he will admit it. somewhat -- i mean, right? >> during the financial crisis? >> everybody was wrong during the financial crisis. >> even though we are -- you know, it might have been wrong ahead of the dotcom bust, too. >> you means in terms of pulling back more than 10% or 20%. >> correct. >> but we like him. and i don't think i was using permable as a pejorative. >> but we were at all-time highs. >> fresh highs. >> he's coming on and rick

santelli. >> no, mike santelli. >> rick and mike santelli, we might get both. >> actually, rick is coming on at 8:30. mike santelli is joining us at 7:00. >> that's mott mike santelli. >> no. >> i hung out with him until 3:00 a.m. in the morning over t cnbc party. >> at the party, right? >> you're suggesting -- >> no, i'm not suggesting -- not that there would be anything wrong with that, anyway, although you're both married. he's still married, right? >> i'm still married. >> so am i. >> we may look at men's lingerie a little later. i don't know if you saw the australian company for men that always wanted to wear a teddy but never did, now they make them in our sizes apparently. >> if you -- >> i'm going to drudge report now to look this up the. >> dallas man and his wife having a pillow fight and both of them in really cute lingerie. >> i think you're making this up. it's not on here.

>> i know. i know you would think that. men's lingerie, center. unless drudge got fooled and they took it down. i actually asked if they got fooled. >> i think this was in your dreams last night. >> maybe i did dream about that. >> where is the oil board this morning? oil is back above 94. when i saw where oil was, i started thinking, this is a set again in terms of assets, in terms of oil, in toerchls just everything going up again, right? but maybe not. let's look at gold which has been coming back a little bit. gold is now 1472. >> coming back a lot. >> it's at 1472. back $72. you can see it there on the chart there. and there was an article yesterday saying, to, gold isn't isn't going anywhere. so now the articles are being written. when we thought they were going to 2,000, now they're going to

1300. and a ten-year is now 165 which is reflective of that weaker than expected gdp. and then finally, the dollar, where you see 1.30 on the euro, we never did get to where we were trying to get on the -- lingerie firm launches men's underwear for -- what does that say right there? >> you said it was a picture. >> no, i didn't say -- here is the picture. this is the picture that i want you to -- you might think you're blind after you see this. >> oh, my gosh. never mind, i don't want to see that. >> but you can see through it. >> i know. i don't want to see that. >> it's junk we can't show this on the air. let me show you the man and the woman in the pillow fight. >> announcer: this squawk ward moment is brought to you by joe kernen. >> it's brought to you by drudge, not joe kernen. >> announcer: this squawk ward moment brought to you by joe kernen. >> do you like his better than

hers? are you jealous? >> i didn't like that closely. >> i know. but it looks like a fun pillow fight. >> it's an aussie firm. who knows wa goes on under there. >> down under? >> yeah. >> they have mammals that have pouchs. no, i haven't done this yet. i thought this was a hidden camera in your house. no? >> no. >> this is happening in places in man hat yap, not in new jersey. >> i watched the queen of versailles last nigh on bravo, our sister network. a great movie about a documentary -- >> the most expensive house in the entire country. >> gone completely alive. >> right. things fell apart during the financial crisis when cash came short. >> these are comfortable -- >> you could see them wearing

those around. >> these are comfortable men's panties, apparently, that really do fit, bra straps that really don't fall off the shoulder. teddys that don't ride up halfway through the night and quality tab ricks that feel great for all-day wear. it's the perfect product for men who have always wanted to dress in lingerie but they had to put on women's which didn't sit right. now you can get your own. >> you know, i'm a tommy john's man. let's keep it there. >> so you're a loyal customer. >> i'm a loyal customer. >> but you haven't looked at these year. they do sell padded bras. >> can we go back to the fed. the fomc is widely expected to keep with borrowing costs at record low levels and the fed is seen keeping its program at 85 billion a month in treasury and mortgage bonds intact. there has been a lot on questions about whether they would start tapering at least until we saw some of the latest economic numbers over the last

four to six weeks. on the economic agenda this morning within we have the employment cost index, the s&p case-shiller home price index. we get chicago pmi consumer confidence and farm prices. andrew. >> and i'm now looking at pictures and i don't know if i can continue with the broadcast. >> it's not a broadcast. if it was a broadcast, we wouldn't be -- i don't think we would be able to talk about this. >> speaking of the economy this morning, the treasury is expected to pay down debt in the second quarter as the budget deficit starts to shrink. you would be the first net debt repayment since 20307 and the announcement is set for tomorrow on the details on the quarterly borrowing schedule. the treasury expects to repay a net $23 billion in the second quarter compared with a february estimate that it would have to borrow $103 billion. the second quarter is always the best for government cash flow because the tax returns are, of course, due in april. >> does it have what sizes it

comes in? >> can you -- >> no, i'm just wondering do they have it in big and tall men? >> it looks like a hoax. >> it does look like a hoax. >> leths get to earnings central. we're going to wait for results from pfizer, u.s. steel and dreamworks animation, among others. also, aetna posted results just minutes ago. the insurance giant reported earnings of $1.50 a share, 11 yents ahead of estimates. revenues did fall a bit short. the company says results were driven by strong membership growth in its medicine business. and numbers from starwood hotels are crossing the wires. they just crossed the wires a phi minutes ago, as well. we've got a lot coming this morning. earnings in revenue topping consensus. . i haven't been to a tarwood hotel in a little bit. corporate event toes watch today, ibm and under armour

they're going to hold shareholders meetings. they're going to be voting on the buyout by berkshire hathway. >> and it's time for the global markets report. and -- >> welcome, ross. >> the one man i did -- i admit i did sort of fantasize a little bit in one of these, yours truly, are ross westgate who is standing by in london. ross, you know, we do have some green -- i'm just going to get out out of this quickly. we have some green and we -- i would figure that you're going to trade based on new highs in the s&p yesterday. isn't that -- that would make sense for me that you would feel some of this cheer over there. yeah? >> there was a bit of that and we had a lot of -- we're heavy in the earnings season, as well, joe. so undoubtedly helped at the start of the record high. then we had some pretty good earnings. right now, we've lost some of

that momentum as you've gone through the session. that's 50/50 as the advancers versus decliners on the dow jones stoxx 600. the ftse 100 is fairly flat despite the best efforts of bp. let's show you where we stand to recap these markets. the ftse 100 fairly flat, cac 40 down 0.2%. xetra dax up 0.7%. and the ftse mib down 0.3%. ubs up 6.4%. they came out and beat expectations with their numbers. deutsche bank surprising, actually, with capital raising, as well. they may have more flexible in paying dividends. ubs showing good signs of attracting higher fees and attracting more money to the wealth management business where they're focusing, as well. bp, one analyst described the results as stunning. they came in better than expected and from a trading revenue and higher margins, as

well, from production. that's what they've been talking about for a while. this is the third quarter that they managed to deliver it. the one negative in earnings, inbev down 3.14 is. >> we've had a lot of economic data out of europe this morning, as well. first of all in spain, gdp contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter as expected. he was 0.8% in the last quarter of 2012. but the economy now is some 7% smaller than it was in 20308. we also saw eurozone unemployment hit a record high, 12.1% since records began in 1995. eurozone inflation, weaker than expected, 1.2% for the month of april is expected at 1.6%. it was 1.7% in more. those two things combined means that the ecb has all the cover it wants if it wants to cut rates on thursday.

and it may launch sort of a small business funding plan, something like the funding we got out from the bank of england. certainly there is an expectation that we may get some form of ecb reaction. that inflation and giving more the cover they need to do that. at the same time here, let's take a look at yields in italy. 3.88%. only about 50 basis points now away from the all-time low on italian government debt. that's dragging spanish yields lower, as well. the new eye at that timan president is coming out today and taking sauce tearty is killing us. we may be now starting to think at the beginning of this phase, it's start to go challenge. if they do that successfully, it may bring down spain. that's where we stand in europe. guys, back to you. >> all right, ross, at 8:00 eastern, we're going to talk to the -- ross knows about swiss

bank accounts. we're going to talk to the cfo of ubs. >> that's why it flowed right out of that. >> he's tot going to deny it, either. >> we're not going to let him. let's talk about some technology news. a judge has set new trial dates in the apple versus samsung patent battle. the question is whether awards to apple should assistant. the judge now says that the new trial should take place sometime between november 12th and november 18. best buy is plannin to leave europe. the retailer is selling its stake in a venture with europe's biggest mobile phone retailer. >> i'm still looking at -- >> and, no, i went to a real site that we've been talking

about. it is a real site. you can buy this stuff. >> how much is it? >> forget me not bra for men is $32. and i'm just so confused. i'm so confused. >> sadly, it sounds like why would a man need a bra? you know, you would think you wouldn't, but there does come a time where, you know, it's not totally ridiculous. i mean, i'm swimming and i'm doing push-ups. i'm battling. i'm battling age. i'm battling gravity, i'm battling what happens. but there has been a time where, you know, i'm not -- you know, i'm -- >> this has to make you much more understanding of what women go through. >> it does. but, you see, it's better now. >> yeah. >> baggy shirt. but -- and the straps do -- the man's ear, you do have that problem. >> quick bringing this up. i don't know how i can continue. >> it's that picture.

>> in other corporate news this morning, herbalife. revenues were basically in line. bill ackman this morning -- >> good protein candy bars. >> i've had those, right. >> they are good. i looked them. >> the company raised its full year profit forecasts. he herbalife says it will prove bill ackman long. in an interview with reuters, the president of herbalife says the resilience of our customer base and our distributor base will continue to show that he's wrong and dead wrong. >> they should have said he got the idea from ron johnson who said he could run jcpenney. this would be a bad, like, three. month period if this -- if herbalife is not a peer mead

scream because it comes right after jcpenney. >> the problem is the investment thesis only works if the fda -- not the fda, but the ftc decides it's a pyramid scheme and takes action. ftc. >> because there are products being made that are going into some type of distribution channel and they do eventually make it some consumers that do consume some of the products, right? >> what i don't understand is why they're so secretive about some of those numberes and what eventually gets sold and what comes back. it's weird when you ask them questions about it and they as a public company don't -- >> once you get the candy bar, they do have products. it is a candy bar. >> we have one more story that those of us who wake up early working the morning shift care about. the fda is going to be investigating foods with added caffeine and the potential impact on children.

other products include jelly belly extreme sports beans, wired waffles, caffinated maple syrup and new york waffles and frito lay's cracker jack power bites. i've never tried those. >> i've never tried that. i'm a little scared. coming up, the fed meets today, but it's the currency markets impact we are worried about. as we head to beak, here is a list of yesterday's winners and losers. >> what's up, doc? i knew i should have taken that left turn at albuquerque.

we're watching this morning's mokts, the s&p coming off a record close. take a quick look and see what's going on here. we have some red arrows. dow is off by almost 12 points. the s&p 500 off about 2 points, as well. let's get the national weather forecast from the weather channel's alex wallace. alex, good morning. we are feeling a little bit better here. sounds like things are looking up, at least on the east coast. >> yeah. the east coast, skies will shape up decently over the next couple of days. not bad at all. but the middle of the country, not so great.

in fact, already this morning we've got storms we're tracking across wisconsin, pressing into lower michigan. with it, heavy downpours and quite a bit of lightning associated with this activity and more showers and storms up across northern sections of minnesota. that's an area we'll be focusing on as we move throughout the day. storms will refire here, including in des moines, damaging winds and hail will be some of the main risks, but can't completely rule out a an isolated tornado. 80s from st. louis to chicago. chicago, your average high for this day, 65 degrees. so almost 20 degrees above average. and we'll keep that warmth going on into tomorrow, as well. wheel we're warming up in the middle of the country, check out what we'll be finding ourselves dealing with back towards the west. we're talking about snow. that's right, more snow to deal with here as we enter into the month of may. we'll see that in and around denver. and not just piddling amounts. we're talking significant

snowfall in some of these spots as we move our way through the next 24 to 36 hours on the order of 8 to 12 inches of snow just to the north and the west of denver. denver, the city itself will be looking at 5208 inches. so the winter that won't go away is still around, guys. >> alex, thank you very much. the markets are geari ining i'm ready for spring. >> me, too. >> yesterday was raw. >> it's nicer today. the forecast is looking up. >> tomorrow is may! tomorrow is may. >> it's not going to look nice. >> it's going to be snowy in denver. but they have a way to explain this. you know why? global markets. the markets are gearing up for a possible rate cut this week. boris schlaffsberg.

you guys are crazy for the consonants. >> it's all those german-jewish names. you guys will have to get used to them. >> bk asset management is so easy. boris, whenever i look at what all the markets are doing right now, 165 on the ten-year, oil is starting to go again, s&p at new highs, i can't -- if i had to look at one thing, it would be the fed again. it seems like i can trade everything back to the fed. although yesterday we found out, if you have a dual mandate for inflation at 2 and unemployment at 6 1/2, what are they supposed to do? they are fully justified in everything they're doing. but i can explain all the asset moves based on that. are they moving on anything else? >> by the fed, you mean they keep their foot to the pedal? >> yeah. >> i think that's very much true. and that's the reason why you say dollar/yen back through the hunted rate. everyone thought we were going to go through the hunted.

2 u.s. economy's turn to wobble a little bit. so the fed is acting as a counter balance on that. that's why you see dollar/yen breaking down as we speak. we need some uplift if we want to see the dollar rally through the hundred on dollar/yen into the summertime. we need to come back into this spring swoon as we're looking at it. we'll see what the fed says. >> so that makes sense. for a while, we thought japan was going to show the fed how it's done. they were going to ask bernanke. now we're back to no, no, we'll show you. we've got money. we've got dollars which, you know, $1 is worth how many -- you have to do a lot more yen. >> godzilla versus king kong. there we go. i figured you would appreciate that analogy. it's two giants basically trying to liquify as much as possible. so they're offsetting each pore that's why you see the rate not going hier. >> i think they did make a good godzilla versus king kong.

>> i defer to you. >> i think mossa battled godzilla. but i don't know about goes zill la -- let's make sure we're not implying that any of the monetary officials are not characters. >> google is saying would won. i'm going to find out who did win that one. >> but i digress. the s&p is at new highs again, too. >> right. >> so much for not committeeing any money for the past seven months because it's going to pull back. >> that's part of easing monetary policy. what's up front for the currency market is, of course, ecb. and ross referred to it quite well. it's put up or shut up time for the ecb. austerity is failing miserably. i actually think if ecb cuts

rates, the euro is going to go down. i think that may be the knee jerk reaction. but i think actually if they don't cut rates, the euro is going to go down on the assumption that there is nothing to look forward to in the eurozone. there is no chance for recovery. so them cutting rates will probably create a small down draft in the euro, but then it will probably rally on the sumg that it will ease stimulus. >> so it was the most -- you know, you said that as if it hadn't happened. it was the most commercially successful of all the godzilla films, godzilla versus king kong. in the japanese ending, godzilla won. and in the ending of the film we showed here, king kong won. king kong is american and godzilla was -- >> it was spanish. >> 1962 released here -- he wasn't really from america. we stole him from africa. but then he climbed the empire state building, therefore ever associated him with the united states. >> but the movie was really from

here. and then we made the remake, which was -- i didn't think was so good. >> i thought we stole it from japan or something. >> no. it was universal film. it was good. >> i think we have everybody confused at this point. >> no, no, no, you should have seen the lingerie earlier. >> i did. i was cringing as i was -- >> are you blind? >> yes, i think i am. like one guy that wrote me, i think you protest a little too much there, boris, thank you. the fed is set to convene a two-day meeting in washington. is there any chance ben bernanke and the fed are going to touch the punch bowl? n espresso to match my every mood. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee. where every cappuccino and latte is made at home.

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welcome back, everybody. joining us right now is david burson. chief economist at nationwide. also, bob delfun, ceo of asset management. david, why don't we start off talking about what you expect from the fed this week. we've kind of given up on the idea that they're going to talk about tapering at this meeting because of the economic numbers we've seen recently. is that your opinion, too? >> i think that's almost certainly the case. i think that the odds they make any change in policy are vanishing low at this meeting. >> are we in real danger of

slipping back into another spring swoon or at this point do you think that the downturn is a little less severe than it has been in previous years? >> well, we're going to see slowing in the economy. the fiscal cliff tax hikes and we're surely going to depress economic growth. how far does it go down? i would say we'll see second quarter gdp growth somewhere between 1% .2%. that's a modest decline from what we've seen in the first quarter, but it's still a spring slowdown. >> you know, bob, when you look at it and you try and figure out what it means for the market b with we have seen some bit of an economic slowdown. we have seen things taper off a little bit. do you think the fed is right to continue to push qe2 to the tune of $85 billion a month? >> no, i don't think it's really helping at all. in fact, i think it's probably making things worse. you'd like to see helping

businesses grow, helping the economy grow and it's not. it's just fostering speculation. it's adding risk to the world. people are trying to figure out ways to get yield. they're scrambling now for spanish bonds, italian bonds, greek bonds. it's not about lower rates or easer money. i think what has to be done is to help the economy add more productivity, add morrow bustness by decreasing regulation. i think that's one of the big head winds we have. >> you wouldn't fight the fed at this point, would you? >> there's no doubt, i agree with david, it's certainty that they're going to keep policy very easy for some time. >> we'll be looking at a few prices today. gold has rebounded from much of the losses from the last couple of weeks.

this is back above 1450 at this point. you look at that. you look at oil prices which are above $95. is that because of what the fed is doing? because it doesn't seem like it's the economic numbers that would be pushing oil. >> i think certainly part of that is from the fed being easy. this is some growth in the u.s. it's not like there's nothing. i mean, elsewhere in the world, certainly in europe is fairly dismal. but there is some growth here in the u.s. want there is some growth in asia. china is still growing. that is supportive of commodity prices. and certainly with a very easy policy, it's hard to imagine any sustained sell-off in commodities unless things get really bad here again. >> but we've watched more .more oil that's being produced in north america in ways we didn't expect we would be finding it in the past. you would think that would eventually put pressure and push oil prices lower. >> it would if demand was increasing. there is still some growth that you see increasing demand.

but oil prices have been largely stagnant over the last year or so. >> david, is there an exit policy for the fed? if we don't think they're going to change their policy now, when and how? >> you know, i'm not sure that the fed knows what the exit policy is or when the exit policy is going to be. as they've said, it will be dependent and when is the economy going to grow strongly enough so that it feels it's comfortable enough to take liquidity out. my view is that it's not until at the earliest the fourth quarter if not until next year. the fed's forecast is better than others so they don't know, either. >> are they in a dangerous situation where we have set up the expectation for what it will take in terms of unemployment rate and the inflation rate before to where we could be looking at several mother years of qe? >> it's quite possible we could look at several more years of qe. if unemployment is coming down simply because the labor force participation rates are

declining and not because job growth has decreased, they could keep monetary policy, keep qe in place certainly well into next year. i'm not sure it's several more years. i think the economy will probably pick up before then. but if it doesn't, then i don't think the fed will pull back from qe. >> bob, what does that mean for the market? >> i think it's going to be supportive for the markets. certainly unless a crisis of some sort heads, it's probably going to add a lot of support to stocks, to commodities, probably negative for the dollar. >> okay. bob, thank you for coming in and, david, thank you for joining us this morning, as well. >> good to be here. coming up, changing the world of mobile advertising. a new "squawk box" is up next. first, though, a couple of stocks to watch. reporting earnings within the last couple of minutes. nuance communication reported 34 cents, 6 cents below expectations. revenue missed the mark. meantime, low cost carrier

spirit air posting a 3 cent earnings beat on expert better-than-expected earnings. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. if you are just waking up this morning, take a look. the market has gotten weaker over the last 20 minutes or so. right now, the dow futures down by 15 points. s&p down by 2.5 points. this is the last day of the month, april 30th. people will be watching to see what happened for that last trait trading day.

take a look at europe and you'll see a mixed performance there. the dax is up by 0.4% in germany and red arrows for the ftse 100 and the cac in france. >> we're going to do a little dits erupting now. joining us on the set, the ceo which helps companies with cross device advertising. i have to admit i had never heard that phrase before. it's this idea that the pages i click on the computer then are showing up on my iphone. so the ads are actually following me everywhere. >> ahh! >> right now, by the way, i went to tommy john toes buy new undershirts because we talk about this company all the time. and now i can't get away from these ads. does your technology allow you to follow you everywhere? >> when we started this company three years ago, because of

growth in mobile and the growth of tablets, consumers are jumping between all this throughout your entire day. so you go from your phone to your tablet to your computer. >> but how do you know how to follow me? i'm hot going to voluntarily give you my information. >> no. we work on big sets of data and signals and models so we don't break it down to individual levels. and see how they can understand this. they get all this signals. >> let's say i click on or look to buy a pair of nike sneakers. how do you then know that i really want those nike sneakers as opposed to i'm looking at the wants and then you're going to follow me for the next two weeks with nike sneakers, right? >> yeah. and the way that typically

advertising has gone from the period to find that purchase intense, to find that the consumers are in the market for a product. you can see do that with a lot of these methodologies that we're using. >> that is the part i don't understand. you can figure out that this is my ipad and this is my pc without knowing that it's me? >> i can do this on just -- one example would be your ip address is at home. so when you're walking with your iphone and your computer connects to the same ip address at home. >> you're tracking me home. >> yes. >> both ip addresses that we are telling you about even though we don't probably appreciate that we're doing that.

>> so specifically, the opportunities about this, as well. most consumers wa want relevant ads. >> there are certain things i'd be more prepared to buy from a computer that i wouldn't buy on the mobile device and there are products i would by happy to buy on the mobile device that i wouldn't buy on the computer? >> most large products you still prefer to buy on a computer. but you can still influence that consumer on multiple devices. >> you say you're signing up for a credit card, for instance, you wouldn't do that on your mobile device. you're signing up for new verizon files on your service. it typically helps advertise and

understand how consumers now are switching between screens and rather than doing research and buying the product. >> and are these banner ads? one of the things people talk about on mobile is how difficult it is just to serve up a banner and getting people to click on it. >> right. the you have the more editorial ads. which we worked with them, as well. and you see tremendous results on it. very high rate. so we are agnostic to all of that. >> who are your clients? >> we work with a hundred of the largest advertisers in the u.s. now. you have all of the big financial companies, the e-commerce companies. basically, anybody that has a product that is more than $1 00 to buy. >> is it because it has to be a big ticket item?

>> for a lot of these products -- i just bought a car and it took me nine months to buy a car. these tickets are higher priced items. consumers come back on multiple devices before they make a final decision. >> we'll quick, fos for those of us curious about privacy, besides the ip address, what other stuff are you getting about aus all day? >> you know, we are looking at contacts, what type of sites do consumers go to. >> andrew, you're looking at men's lingerie all day long. they're like, whoa, whatever. >> i can't brief you're -- >> is there some central postitory that tells you? >> yeah, specifically -- >> and they know. but how? >> so to share some information

so that they can sell ads for higher price. so if we can target ads better, then they can sell it for two, three, four, five times more. >> does it tell you whether the person purchases something on it site? >> yes. >> don't look at me like that. >> thank you for coming in. makes it really interesting. >> it's scary. >> you already know whether he bought something? can you drn. >> i'll -- i probably don't know anything about that. about the actual purchase, color, shape, size, lace. >> no, we don't know that. >> thank you. >> thank you. s is nipe, another snipe hunt. >> you're so smooth. >> snipes are little birds that you can't catch. >> no, it was jeremy. >> snipes are birds and you go on a snipe hunt and you have to do certain things and say certain things and you can watch a snipe. were you out that day?

>> no be, i was here that day ai didn't see you looking it up. >> we're going to ask jeremy why stocks go from here. and then later, the cfo of swiss banking giant ubs for duran drew. >> who wrote the book on "too big to fail." flying is old hat for business travelers. the act of soaring across an ocean in a three-hundred-ton rocket doesn't raise as much as an eyebrow for these veterans of the sky. however, seeing this little beauty over international waters is enough to bring a traveler to tears. we're putting the wonder back into air travel, one innovation at a time. the new american is arriving.

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welcome back, everybody. we are looking at some of the stories that have caught our attention this morning. one thing you notice at this time offen credibly high unemployment you think people might be more professional had when they show up. but there's a story on "usa today" that college students have poor interviewing skills. human resources pros said they have seen them text or take calls during their interviews. they dress inappropriately. they use slang or overly casual language. some of the examples was a man in his late 20s who brought his father to a 45--year-old father. another college senior who

brought her cat in to american eagle. another one who took 15 minutes into the interview got a call on his cell phone and took it. they did a study over the last four years. saying 48.6% said that new employees exhibit professionalism in the first year. less than half show that in the first year. >> i had a young man come for an internship interview who said i don't do coffee, which i will always remember. >> they say 52.9% say they show up with a sense of entitlement. >> and i didn't suggest there was coffee necessary. but he said i don't do coffee. >> i did do whatever was necessary. >> you were interviewing again. because you were young three years ago, right?

you were young. if i do coffee, were you going to get me coffee? >> you let me know. i'd be happy to. >> he offered me coffee. >> i was going to mention -- yesterday we had that huge thing. mid-level employee at jpmorgan. today, today, honey, hurry up, come and watch. he's leaving. get in here. the co-o of jpmorgan is leaving. >> did you see the ratings spike? >> i was going to do this. and i thought, let's do this. martha needs a man for sex. i love martha. i think she's 71. she was telling matt lauer that she misses male company. >> everybody needs a companion.

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good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick. the futures have been indicated a little bit weaker this morning. dow futures down 13.5 points. s&p off by 2.5. in our headlines this morning, fed policymakers are set to begin a two-day meeting with

their latest statement due tomorrow afternoon. investors will watch for further clues on how and when the exit. and no january says no need to increase its bid for sprint nextel. it is being challenged by dish network, which has a $25.5 billion bid on the table at this point. softbank said he believes his company is superior. best buy is exiting the european market. the european mobile phone retailer is buying back the 50% stake for $775 million. best buy bought that stake in 2008 for $2.1 billion. joe, you have earnings? >> pfizer reporting 55 cents. actually, 54 cents. and the estimate was for 55. revenue slightly below

expectations. 13.5 billion. for the year the company sees 55.3 to 57.3. and the street is 57.3. if they reach the high end it will be where they need to be. they are dealing with lipitor and the patent expiration there. first quarter lipitor revenues, 626 million. it used to be billions. >> that's what generics will do to you. >> fiscal year knelt of 214 to 224, which is below the 228. and that means since they were only a penny shy in the first quarter that means it is one of the next few quarters. 55, 59, 57, 56 to add to 228. now 214 to 224. that's four cents shy even if

they hit the high end for pfizer. if you recall back in the heyday -- i don't know what the capital market was. must have been 400 billion. >> the weakening of the japanese yen. foreign exchange rates is 4 cents a share, as well as the impact of the opi, which is two cents a share. >> and it's done under 30 right now. >> that stock is not worth that much. >> what? >> when you talked about $400 billion. >> it was long before. >> yeah. >> we're talking about in the days when g.e. was 60. >> totally. >> it was one of the beloved -- it was when merck was -- remember merck was up at $80.

with all the stuff that's happened with vioxx. in the heyday. yeah. >> again, you talk about what companies are doing. just with dividends and giving cash back. cfo points out they have returned $8 billion to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases and significant additional capital that's expected to be allocated to these activities for the year of the year. >> it dropped all the way, andrew to, $5, pfizer did. i think it was above 60. my chart doesn't go back far enough. i'm old. going back to coca-cola was 50 times earning. remember that? >> those were the days. >> they were. >> shares of ubs jumping.

the biggest bank of switzerland. more than obviouslying estimates. we'll be speaking to the cfo of ubs, tom naratil, in the next hour. aetna, the insurance giant, reporting earnings of $1.50 a share. 11 cents. came in ahead of estimates. revenues did fall a bit short. company says revenues were driven by strong membership growth in its medicare business. we have had the ceo on a couple of times talking about the sequester and all sorts of things. so there it is. >> we talked about this. prepared for a switch-a-roo. this is you. >> spring is in full swing. summer rapidly approaching. blah, blah, blah.

jeremy siegel is here. i don't know what that was. anyway, jeremy. >> yeah. >> we're sat annan all time high. >> you know what one of my rants, and mike santelli is here who also the last time you were on weren't one of the people. and i have seen more than a few times saying you have to wait for a correction before you put new money to work. i can name 12 well-known people that said wait until you buy. we can get a 10% pull back. >> go up 20% and then go down 10 by now. >> and they will never switch. >> no. >> sooner or later there will be a correction. so they are unare redeemable. >> they haven't bought or who are waiting. >> and i'm not even including the people pack in '09 that said at 6.66 that we're going down from 6.66.

>> right. >> i can give you another 10 famous names. so that's why when you get someone who really has stuck to new guns the other time. he said you go, guy. >> we were had he hotel. that's whether we did that deal. >> you're an academic. we immediately assume you're not going to go what's happening. those who can and those who can't touch. >> i have been following stock markets. >> becky made the point, wisdom tree. what about year end. >> yeah. >> you have been sticking to what on the s&p and dow. >> i think we have a chance on the 16,000 on the dow by year end. it was a year ago january where i said this year we will cross 15,000. of course we're this close now. >> it wouldn't be that big a

move, jeremy. >> no. >> i thought you had 17,000. >> 17,000 was like a 50% chance. i think it's going to be between 16,000 and 17,000 and be at 17. >> you called this a long time ago. >> right. >> and it over time stocks go higher. >> right. >> that was actually a question. it's been so bad for 10 or 12 years. >> that's one reason why if you have a 10-year period where there was basically no gain the statistics are overwhelming. and i think it's always important valuation was very persuasive. i still think it is sper swaeusive. >> because of the zero interest. >> what else is around there? you hear more and more about dividends. they're saying, hey, can't get it from my bank accounts, bondings or my cds. maybe i should get into dividend-paying stocks.

>> i have gotten some of the sell side guys, while i think there could be a correction any time so i'm constructive long term. you're not saying anything. this is the sell side. they say, yeah, i can't say anything. i'm a sell side guy. but even this most recent 2.5%, 3% pull back, they thought the rally was finally ending and it didn't. >> muscle memory is so strong. if you actually thought -- >> just not the last eight months. >> that's right. essentially i get why you have that instinct to cringe ahead of this blow that might never come. it looked so similar, by the way at every step this year to last year, 2011. right now i think it has gotten

overrecognized. year to date is exactly what it was last year. exactly. and last year we went down 7% a month, or 8%. so that's why i think you have people out for that. >> the may swoon. >> do you notice, though -- i noticed more than ever. bear market good news is good news, bad news is bad news. >> right. >> we have had news in the last month on any given day -- >> i don't know if it's horrible or we saw with revenue growth. >> lousy earnings. ibm down. four horsemen from the bellweathers. >> we have perfectly good excuse. it has happened underneath the surface. they're not the ones that people buy because they think earnings

will roll ahead. they say the macro environment is great. it's a piece of paper. it is worth more than a similar piece of paper. >> has the public made any money other than being in 401 mutual fund? >> it's growing, but it's still minuscule. we have had inflows this year. after five years of huge outflows. i think people are dipping their toes in a little bit. but there's $11 trillion, as i say is, is zero interest bank accounts and cds, money market mutual funds that will tired of staying there. to the extent we see there's no top line growth and that remains a consistent problem, i get the idea there's no other place to put your money. at some point don't you say this doesn't make sense.

the numbers are going to start not adding up. there was a time when the market looked really cheap. >> very cheap compared to bonds, the alternatives. bonds are fixed income. the world's biggest asset class. you have to compare in other investments too. the gold swoon is good for stocks too. people going to say, is there i can be absolutely anything that is surely safe? >> used to talk to some retail broker. do you remember? >> yeah. >> do you still talk to him? >> i still do. >> you can tell which ones speak to the american. . the most favorite for me is when interest rates were 21.5%.

do you know what the best thing was? >> what? >> floating rate at 12%, 13%. you floated down to 4%. if you locked in the bonds -- you could tell the in flow of khaoeupbts wanting to know how rates go up to 21%. >> he's been in the camp that looked at it and four weeks ago looked to some of those connections. >> four months isn't 8%. >> no. >> the guys i'm talking about were there in november saying, no, no. >> what's interesting is you have to change the zone. when things are good and people are upbeat, it's less of a danger side. i think that's where we are right now. in other words, you can kind of understand why people are

bullish too. basically for people who are participating in the market i think they're exposed to the market. >> really? >> yeah. but i don't really think it's broad based. >> i'm loot short-term. >> i don't think it's an interesting question as to whether the person gets the stock. it's when are they going to buy anyway. >> anyway, more up next. srord, another record close. when we get to 5,000 on the nasdaq we will know public is back. how will flood of data infect n

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>> welcome back to "squawk box". our next guest says the market is undervalued. joining us is management director, founder and senior portfolio manager of canterbury group. here's the question. and we asked it to both gentlemen before. where the top line has not been moving at all except for down effectively or at least flat, how do you make the argument that ultimately stocks are under valued? >> we think stocks were undervalued today. when you look at expected earnings growth, we think it is

1%. the market is pricing very low, nominal growth rate. it already knows revenue is challenged. and on average over time i'm willing to comfortably take over 1% versus the under. if you thought the ingenuity that you interview all the time can deliver more than 1%, i think you would be very attracted to equities. the way you think about framing it is on average over time, nominal has been 4% to 6%. that's the way i i think about today's environment. >> but that's a bottom line number.

8% is minimum. that's 20 billion of earnings. 13 per share. another 200 points in the s&p. >> and the tipping point for that money to get that 8% is what? >> well, i think it takes -- a lot of it is happening already. there's no question ceos like the average investor out there re-mapes very skeptical and cautious. they are unwilling to do bold things. and the tipping point will come with time and higher stock prices. >> where does that take new terms of the kinds of companies you're looking for that are doing something with the balance sheet or capital. >> we're looking at capital that can grow in this market. housing recovery is here to stay. >> you don't think that's slower than some people thought? >> what? >> housing recovery? >> no. i think it will surprise to the

up side. it's quite possible housing starts go back to prior highs. it will take time. it won't happen tomorrow. that's a huge influx in the company. petsmart, a predominant pet retailer, works well for them. you get a house, you buy a dog or cat. we think of it end to end. >> you're not talking about home builders in particular. >> weyerhaeuser is one of the biggest in the country. we like growing difficult deposited yield. it gives 2u.6 dividend yield. it depends to 5% to 6%. you put those two things together and our client say does that actually provide us with a

way to protect our purchasing power in real terms. >> mario is on that earlier. i go in and i go in for hamsters and fish. i never walk out without a $40 bill for filters. for fish food. i'm not kidding. and i go in there a lot. >> you're buying a hamster? >> i already have a hamster. when pilar was in i asked if she had a dog yet.

>> somebody has to walk it. >> amazing. i think i finally met someone more bullish than i am. >> we have to leave it there. thank you for coming in. >> when we come back, talking google. stick around. [ penélope ] i found the best cafe in the world. nespresso. where there is an espresso to match my every mood.

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okay. so get this, if you have an iphone or ipad, pay attention. google is setting its sights on siri. google now is now available as part of a free google search iphone and ipad app. you can download it. it's the first time google now has been available for nonandroid devices. it performs many of the same functions as siri. it is programmed to go beyond siri, anticipating user preferences and finding information before the user even asks for it. >> what? >> it is pretty cool. >> have you tried it? >> i have seen it on annan droid phone and thought, wow, i wish i could have. during the next commercial break i'm going to download it. >> i tried to do the google map

and it asked me to sign up. >> gmail address. you need to have that? >> i do. >> then i have two e-mail addresses. >> you don't have to use it. >> i was totally confused. >> you want it all for free and nothing. >> i just didn't understand why they wanted all the information. like the porn sites. i don't give any information. >> we have your tools of the trade. a look at currency and oil markets. later, the business of cookies. the girl scouts $3.2 million sales force is wrapping up its season today. it is close anything on the billion dollar mark.

welcome back to "squawk box". in our headlines, a fresh read on home prices in 90 minutes. the latest case-shillor home

report. robert shiller will be joining us. apple and samsung back in court later this year. new trial dates on the ongoing patent dispute. back in march, 1.05 jury award to apple slashed by more than 40%. a new trial on damages will take place in mid-november. anheuser-busch reported 1.5% increase in first quarter profits despite a drop in sales. its results were held by higher prices even as beer sales dropped in key markets like north america and brazil. weaker data out of europe. dollar weakness may stem some of the losses. joining us to talk currency ises mark chandler on oil, president

and ceo. kevin, i'm going to go to you. we'll try to connect the dots. we had a report of the dollar weakness. how long do we think this is sustainable for? >> we're at the higher end of our range. we will see 86 to 97. yesterday's rally was precipitated by the weaker dollar. it did help push crude a little bit higher. we had to see a solid close above 95 before we get interested in shifting our range. we don't see much room to move higher above this unless we have pervasive dollar weakness. >> real quick, what's the down side? >> it could be 86. we're going to have this wild trading. that could be one day's range. 86 to 97 until early q3.

>> help us with the dollar weakness. with the fed, where is it going. >> i should ask what the ecb was going to do. it kept confusing me with the bundes bank. i think the federal reserve is really a nonevent. anybody expects it to continue $85 billion a month in purchases. the weak u.s. economic data is going to quiet the hawks a little bit. those who wanted to tamper down the buying towards the middle of the year. we will see doves like evans from chicago pressing to do more. >> mark, you said the market is a little bit ahead of itself and expecting more from the ecb. >> well, i don't think it cares all that much whether it's in may or june. i think it's more of a political question. what we have seen happening in

recent weeks is europe, especially the periphery, is moving away from austerity. im can f has moved away from austerity. eu moved away from austerity. the i would suggest the aggressive easing in anticipation of that has done more for european bonds. >> jeremy? >> yeah. i've been amazed at what i have seen in spanish bonds how low that has gone. how do you read that? i think it could be european equities in general. >> i think what's happening -- a couple of things is happening.

japanese flows into bond markets. italian bond rates down. they are trying to jump aboard. also i think the euro is headed a bit higher. despite the softness we have seen. >> thank you for joining us, mark and kevin. >> coming up, our what's working series. three sectors could help you make some money. cfo of ubs. easily beating wall street expectations. stock currently trading at 52-week high. what's driving profits in just a few minutes. (announcer) at scottrade, our clients trade and invest exactly how they want.

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checking futures right now, not much has happened. we're waiting for economic data. even today being tuesday, a lot

more coming on wednesday, thursday, friday. it should give us some insight into at least how the economy is doing. but the market does whatever it wants anyway. but we will -- you know what it was? there's only 30 days in april. i use my knuckles. >> right. last day. we just had this number. >> we're just getting older. >> no, no. >> oh, because it was a late one. >> was it a late one? >> it could have been a little later. so this came -- all those people will be back. >> right. >> february is a short month, so you need to go to march. march 9th i think it was. >> right. we'll talk more about that.

advising them to stay away from gold during the recent down turn. where is he putting his clients to work? joining us is mike brown, dynasty financial partners. mike, you were worried about gold. what made you start to worry about where gold was headed? >> you know, becky, when you look at the price of gold technically it had gotten in the mid-1600 range, had sold off to see kind of a reduction in hedge fund long positions in gold. and then just overall, it's been an asset class tremendous overowned by many people. so we kind of thought in the mid 1500s it was more prudent to sit on the sidelines, reduce positions.

we didn't get 100% out of gold. we were quite surprised at the pull back in glp some would you verizon people to steer clear? >> it is clearly at a more reasonable price. i said i would get more interesting data around 1250. >> that's 225 bucks lower. >> >> last week it hit 130 and broke. i think there's a lot of potential on the down side here. in a zero interest rate environment, gold is a perfect diversification to have in an overall portfolio. we still want to be there. i think lower prices are in the cards short-term.

>> what is the equivalent. do you remember? >> you mean the high? >> no. a phapbs suit is an ounce of gold. for 1400 you can still buy a good suit. well, not you. you're looking at me like i'm suit. 3,000, right? >> no. >> you can buy a $1450 suit. >> yes. get a sale. >> two for $300. you're going to like how you look. >> did simms file for bankruptcy? >> they were absorbed. >> i for a while thought $2,000 for that little shiny -- that was nuts, mike. 1250 sounds good. sounds better than 2,000. >> it does.

it does. you have to look at why people own gold. i get enthused. i get kind of confused, let's put it that way. people talk about gold as this fiat currency. the world is coming to an end. i have to tell you gld is not doing you any good if the world comes to an end. you better have it maples leaves and all the coins. then you have to figure out where to store them. dig a hole in fort lee. >> at the border you try to sign over your etfs. i swear i own this gold. please, let me out. >> mike, what's been marking when it comes to stocks? do you still like them? >> i'll tell you, becky, it's been an interesting market listening to your guests this morning. we like to say the market has

been begrudgingly going higher. stocks pay high dividends. consumer staples. big drug stocks have done very well. that's been the trade for the last quarter or so -- actually the last two quarters. that's defensive. one interesting thing is. >> technology. >> energy to some extent. and you look at the industrials and the materials. when they have outperformed at this level. there was a piece yesterday written by jpmorgan talking 700, 800 basis points underperformance, statistically that's usually a good time to buy those stocks. tactically i would be allocating in those areas, specifically technology and microsoft, intels

of the world. you're getting decent yields. you're getting compensated to be in the stocks. you have great balance sheets that will be around for a long period of time. >> you didn't mention ibm. >> ibm would be clearly one of the ones you want to own. trying to find a level of support here in the mid 190s. i would think if it gets lower i would be a buyer. >> thank you for joining us. great talking to you today. >> thank you. >> you gave me the movie "28 days". >> did you like it? >> i did. and i liked "28 weeks" too. >> it's been a while since we have seen it. >> we brought $50,000 in cash and thought we could get on a plane. everyone there brought tons of cash. it was all just paper. everybody was climbing on top of

each other. there is just no way out. if you believe in the zombie a pack lips you need gold. >> are you going to talk men's lingerie? >> you did buy some of this. >> you did not anticipate that. what it did tell me is right now if i want to go home it would take 35 minutes. >> you knew i was doing this segment. it's a full screen of the pillow fight in the men's lingerie. did you see this earlier, santelli? >> did not. >> this is in the men's lingerie category. we didn't know the category

existed. >> they put my head. there it is. >> we thought it was a spoof. but apparently it's a real website. >> it is a real website. they're accepting orders. that looks like fun, kind of, doesn't it? you know who every woman would want to see? are you going to show the correspondents dinner? we hang out once in a while. >> who is that? >> oh, i don't want to say. but we're friends. we kind of cruise. we were walking around together. >> your wing man? >> my wing man, b. krfc., bradl cooper i said you're tall too. you're not 5'6". that's what i was hoping for. >> just to feel better about yourself? >> in person it's even worse than in movies, andrew. he didn't show up until the

dinner had started. but his super model date was sitting right next to us. >> you're a star. >> did you get an invite? >> i could have. >> they're laughing in the control room. we are very, very close. >> shoe watch the house of cards spoof about the invites. >> that was one of the jokes conan said. he and biden didn't have any extra tickets. coming up, the the business of cookies. girl scouts of america taking a once little fund-raiser and turning it into a a billion dollar event. today is the last day to get your cookies. if you haven't ordered yet found a girl scout quick. [ penélope ] i found the best cafe in the world.

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today is the last day of girl scout cookie season. sales of 3.2 million. won't be long are they pass the billion dollar single season milestone. i have been trying to get the ceo on. she's coming on.

she's a hoot. the biggest entrepreneurial training ground for little girls in the world. my daughter i think was two weeks ago on huffington post. >> on my honor, i will try, to serve god and my country to help people at all times and to live by the girl scout law. 3.2 million. >> i was not a girl scout. that's why i can be unbiased in reporting this story. >> kayla is here. >> you weren't? >> i didn't. >> i'm a do-si-do person because i'm allergic to chocolate. which means i'm one of the cool kids. i want to tell but the business. when girl scouts cookies are in season they go fast.

i went to a sidewalk shop and they sold 800 boxes in two hours. i asked a new york city troop to take a guess. how much do you think all the girl scouts sell in girl scout cookies every year? >> 3 million. >> 9 million. >> 8,000. >> i think a lot. so 10 million or so. >> as cute as they are, they are way off. cookie revenue, $790 million. sales fell during the crisis. the only cookie that sells more is oreo. some troops even accept credit cards. when i asked one of the girls what it was she said when you found it on the ground you can't

use it. girls consider to get badges in profits and losses. important lessons for them, guys, as they begin the next phase of their business, selling online. ceo chavez told cnbc they are going to roll it out in the next two years. they want to sell online but still maintain their own personal customer bases and still be as entrepreneurial as they are. >> oh, i don't like that. it makes me nervous. you can get it all year? will it hurt the sales of those going door to door? >> it looks like they have already made it to park avenue. >> they were right across the street from jpmorgan.

i said you know your market. >> will they still only have them part of the year? >> the season is effectively the beginning of january to theened of april. they are only allow an eight-week period to sell the cookies. >> that's amazing. they sell over one quarter and only oreo tops them. >> you spoke to anna marie? >> yes. she's a hoot. >> isn't she hilarious? she's a neighbor of mine. anyway, thank you, kayla. which girl scout cookie is your favorite for one of the big

five. fox news, if you were in high school they would be the jocks. msnbc would be the nerds. and the other would all have peanut allergies. that was low. >> i like mpr. >> everyone laughed. >> you have a chocolate allergy. >> i do. >> that's a bummer. >> it is very painful. >> when did that allergy start? >> age 8. >> oh, my god. awful. story to hear that >> all right. when we come back, the ceo of ubs. later this morning, a read on the housing market from robert shillor for the case-shillor index due out at 9:00. changing the world is exhausting business. with the innovating and the transforming and the revolutionizing. it's enough to make you forget that you're flying five hundred miles an hour on a chair that just became a bed.

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a key read on housing. case-shiller home price at 9:00 a.m. >> swiss bank ubs rebounding in

q1. we'll talk about the recovery and the prospects for the rest of the year. college football fans demanded a playoff. >> playoffs? are you kidding me? playoffs? >> and their wish was granted. plans for the playoff system being finalized now. the big 12 conference as the third hour of "squawk box" starts right now. welcome back to "squawk box". our guest host this morning jeremy siegel, professor at the the wharton school. and yahoo! finance mike. first, becky has the morning headlines. stocks rallying to records.

the major average is closing higher in the last six sessions. the dow has yet to show a three-day closing streak. that's the first time it has gone without posting three consecutive days of losses. i believe we are 16 tuesdays in a row the markets have closed higher. see if we will make it 17 today. so far not cooperating. dow down 16.5 points. pfizer reporting 54 cents. a penny short of estimates.

revenue came in a little short. shares of pfizer down 3.8%. also sirius xm 3%. the company naming jim meyer as ceo immediately. he has been serving since december. >> first quarter net profit of a billion dollars after a $2 billion loss the previous quarter. a member of cnbc's global cfo council. good morning to you. much better results this quarter. tom, are you there? >> it's great to be here. >> here's where i want to go with this. what i want to try to understand is the regulatory environment right now for the banking

business, when you think about basel rules, capital ratios, you folks in switzer land have had to really upgrade your requirements in ways that other banks in europe and frankly in the u.s. have not yet. has that put you at a competitive disadvantage? it's actually been quite the opposite. we looked at for our primary franchise in wealth management a strong capital base as a competitive advantage. so that starts with the base of strong regulatory frame work. we targeted ourselves a premium at 13%. we just achieved 10.1%. we have met the 2019

requirements under the swiss system six years early. >> right. you guys are doing it early. morgan stanley, goldman sachs, they're playing basically against different, frankly less stringent rules. >> well, they are. when you look at how challenging it is geo politically around the world, wealthy clients are searching a strong capital base. certain the past few years increasing rates each year in line with the growing capital ratios capped off this quarter $24 billion. that's double the rate of new money growth we had a year ago. it's half of the half new money we generated all of last year. >> tom, talk to us about the restructuring that's going on. in the fall you laid off 10,000

employees, scaled back bonus payments to change some things. where are you in that process? what's it done to the ability to retain and perhaps even attract new talent. >> sure. so we're very well along into our execution of our acceleration of our strategy that we announced in the fall. in particular i think you see with our focused investment bank the strong results we had in the investment bank this quarter. i certainly think our testament to the ability of our teams to adjust to the new environment and our new strategy. when you look at the attracting talent, we look at traders, salespeople who want to serve their client well. we focus what we do the best in

very specific areas. we have client facing personal who know we can do the best for them to serve their clients. >> do swiss banks still have a competitive advantage? there were obviously for many years, if not a century, the view that you can stick your money in a swiss bank and frankly nobody would know about it. how do you deal with it? >> well, that certainly changed for quite a long period of time now. ubs over a decade has been working on developing its onshore business in europe as opposed to its offshore business. it's more about what are the services, what's the quality of

the advice to your clients and the location of your bank or entity. the great success we had starting with this quarter is certainly a testament to the work that our client advisers have been doing with our clients the past few years. >> tom, can you give us a sentiment read in terms of how they are feeling. we have been talking all morning with jeremy siegel where we are. the markets continued to climb what people say is a wall of worry. is it your sense that is going to hold up? >> well, in our outlook statement we have issued a statement as we have for the past six quarters we think is realistic as opposed to one. that's overly optimistic or pessimistic. we did see clients take on a bit

more risk and take money out of catch. at the same time we have seen this in our most recent client survey. despite the fact of becoming more optimistic, they're still comfortable holding high amounts of cash. when you look at our global business you really do see striking difference in the optimism of clients depending where they are geographically. apec the is highest. u.s. is next, switzer land and the most muted for the outlooks and the economy. >> thank you. eat chocolate for us if you can. >> you know where i have mine.

cayman islands. >> g.e. sold to paine webber. >> they merged with ubs. >> right. >> any g.e. stock i had with paine webber went to ubs. i have a swiss bank account, ubs. is it above $5. >> $3, $4, $5. i vice president looked in a while. >> there's no reason so. what have we got? >> 8.87.

>> comcast is managed by merrill. >> that's the decision, merrill versus ubs. >> next and still ahead, a read on the housing market ahead of some of today's home price data and who will be here. yeah, the guy who it is named after. case schiller. he is co-founder of case schiller home price index. the american dream is of a better future, a confident retirement. those dreams have taken a beating lately. but no way we're going to let them die.

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. your hands are going into the camera. the futures right now are down. dow opens 16 points. nasdaq off one and a half. s&p a little over two points. shares of avon. a van helped by cost cuts and improved sales in brazil and russia.

markets rallying to records. our next guest says he's not just bullish but he is in his uptick the next seven years. quantitative management associates. ed, you have been bullish for a while. you are now more overweight in the u.s. versus international stocks. >> that's right. the energy story and the long run and better traction in the u.s. is better the next several years. >> even as the the u.s. dollar has gotten stronger and stronger. >> euro has been 1.30 for a while. >> how about the yen. >> the yen is because of the policy in japan. it seems the long run direction of the dollar is still to be smaller as well.

i think the long run strength of the dollar is part of the reason why you would love to be in the u.s.. >> in my opinion all central banks pretty easy money policies this year into next year. >> into next year? >> yeah. >> do they pull back at some point? >> they will stop before next year is out. it will be well into the second half before they really pull back. >> the the three of you don't have a lot to argue about. you all said we could be at a much longer bull market. >> there's always a million things to worry about.

so you have clearly it is uncertain. european peninsula, china. each market has its own individual problems now as you look around the world. if you think about it this way, we went through a nine year bear market. now we're into a bull market. the u.s. and global economy is just starting to recover from the crisis. >> rotation hasn't started. utilities are what everyone is talking about. suspect there a run for sick cal. >> at some point i don't think it has to be staged like that.

>> historically they have been cheap and cyclical stocks have been expensive. they have higher returns. you have to have lower valuations. low beta has worked so well for so long. we price within the stock market is a very healthy thing. it's one of the reasons it has some legs. >> there was only a wise way to do this like a wisdom tree. >> people say they're so expensive. as people turn to them for income purposes rather than trading purposes we can see them higher than the historical average. >> we have to go sooner or later. or never. maybe cyclicals never go again.

we never get above 2% ever again. >> four years in the s&p is 8.5%. >> we're talking 8%, 9%. >> bull markets don't end when pe is 15. they go much further. especially in this interest rate environment. they go to the high teens. >> what is heavily overweight? >> for us we're risk aware.

if the benchmark is 50% stocks, we're more like 55% to 60% stock. >> is cash playing any role at all? >> we're keeping cash pretty low. >> bonds? >> yeah, we have bonds. we have a 60/40. >> that's what i mean. we have had this discussion. >> are you 40% bond? >> yeah. >> do you think that makes sense? >> what about commodities? what about gold? >> i'm not a big -- the best investment i ever made was in gold. that little piece of gold i put on my wife's finger 34 years old. >> oh, man. oh, wow. i'm getting a cavity.

>> you have this little give/take thing. >> it's diversification. >> could it wipe out your gains? could it wipe out your gains in the stock market? >> i don't think so. again, i'm not a fan of bonds. the economy is doing much better. >> is and there would be some kind of financial act between now and then. >> there would be. going 2.5 to 3. >> jump bonds 20 times earnings.

>> it would be hard to unwind. >> we would have all signed on long term 4%. >> in 1999 the the best trailing 20-year investment was treasuries. >> thank you for coming in today. >> thank you. >> by the way, happy birthday. >> today is my 60th birthday. >> congratulations. >> thank you very much. >> milestone. >> a perfect round number. congratulations. >> pru is now wells fargo. there's three left. wells -- no four. morgan stanley, ubs, merrill lynch. e.f. hutton are all wrapped up.

coming up, not enough jobs for sell guys. >> i'm on the buy side. >> that's much worse. home price data at 9:00 a.m. eastern. before we get the numbers, we're going to talk to one of the founders of the index. robert shiller. right now as we head to break, futures are down two in the s&p. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. voted "best investment services company." governor of getting it done.

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welcome back to "squawk box". if you have not booked your trip to space you may have to wait in line. 500 people have put down deposits for a space flight. the total cost isn't cheap. it's $200,000 a person. virgin galactic fired its rocket engine for the first time yesterday. that's a key step. it's scheduled to begin next year. the flight over the mohave desert broke the sound barrier. >> would you go? >> no. i can see pictures from here. >> case-shiller prices due out at 9:00 a.m.

one of the founders of the index will join us to talk about the recovery and the housing market. oh, boy.

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welcome back to "squawk"

this morning. rick santelli will give us numbers for the first quarter. rick, i don't think the numbers are out yet. we should talk a little bit about the markets first. >> well, i think the biggest story before we get to the numbers is, you know, quarterly refundings in the old days used to be a big deal. now we have more supply because we have to finance a lot more bills. but tomorrow's quarterly announcement is going to give us a lot of news, not the least of which those tax increases. mostly we talk payroll tax. but there's a whole lot of folks in the upper strata that get knocked a bit. but obviously pay more in taxes. this is at least going to bring in a lot of revenue. so you're going to see that for a certain stretch of period we're going to pay down some debt. don't get used to it. don't see the receipts will continue. we can enjoy them at least a month or so.

>> so paying down this debt, does it say anything about anything? >> yeah. i think it says for the most part we will have 7/8 of a trillion in deficit but we have a stretch where the revenues came in. here's the data. employment cost up 0.3. that is indeed a bit lower than we were expecting. about 40% is what we were looking for. we get a 5.3. it was downgraded 5.5 to only 5.4 higher. take it for what you will. 165 on a 10-year. just to show you, andrew, this one-time event is having a big toe on the markets or a big effect on the markets, two-year note at 20 basis points. my guess is it's reflecting the smaller size that hit in the

t-bill auctions yesterday. it's just something we want to monitor. i don't think you will see a big size difference in the 10s and 30s. tomorrow, early in the morning, it's 10:00 eastern. maybe everyone 9:00 eastern because of the fed meeting. that treasury announcement will be important to pay attention to. >> rick santelli, great seeing you in d.c. we will see you on "squawk on the street" and tomorrow morning. let's move over and talk case-shiller numbers. we will get them at 9:00 a.m. eastern. joining us is robert shiller, professor at yale and founder of case-shiller index. the piece or the part that really caught my attention was sort of the future of buying versus renting. renting which conotes mobility

might become known to be a high status lifestyle in the new economy. can you explain why that could be? >> because it connotes mobility and free dom. i don't think it's a clear trend yet. it's always been a high status lifestyle in manhattan. isn't man hat annan exciting place? >> the suggestion is the american dream of owning the home, the "leave it to beaver" lifestyle we have long talked about, you think that's done? >> it's not done, no. it's just a matter of degree, change. i think we were really strong on this american dream of 5, 10 years ago. and we're getting back to maybe more normal. this country hasn't been a country of homeowners all the time. renting works very well. and it's very sensible strategy for many people depending on

your circumstances. >> and think if they got rid of the mortgage deduction. i was thinking of that. there would be no reason. if you can't use it or if they were to cap it where it wouldn't matter if you had a nice house you would miss out on home appreciation. but you would miss out on what happened in 2008 and 2009. that would be one way to do it, to get rid of mortgage deductibility. >> that might be coming or scaled back. i think people are doubting the wisdom of that. why subseu tkaoeuz big houses. is that the best way to spend our money on? >> if and when we decide to do it, how do you not hurt the market. do you have estimates on what it might do? >> well, i suppose it's already hurt the market a little bit.

the markets will say when the news hits the markets, that's when it happens. as far as structuring it, one thing i think would be done is to keep it for low priced homes. so it doesn't wreak hardship on marginal houses. it's especially important, by the way, that people struggling to achieve the american dream, that these people be helped. they are the ones more vulnerable in their self-esteem. that's what it's about. self-esteem and sense of participation in our society. i don't dismiss it but i think we have overrated it, especially for higher income people. >> professor shiller i know you can't talk about the numbers coming out later today. but i have a broad questions in terms of what's happening with the market. there are questions about how strong that recovery is. i have a more specific question. with the fed keeping them so low

at zero, how much of the housing recovery is tied. if the fed increases rates, how much impact will that have on the recovery? >> the home buyer tax credit introduced in 2009. that expired in 2010. it had a big effect on housing price between 2009 and 2010 when it was enforced. subsidies in san francisco went up 20%. huge increase. after they took it off, home prices came down again. it might be the same thing with qe3. ever since they announced that they have been very low. they're going to take that off. one reason that some people are so anxious to buy now is they sense the low mortgage rates

might be temporary. >> the implications of what you say is that houses that are currently owned right now, they don't ultimately easily convert to rental properties. so if you think that's the the future, there could be serious implications. you said, in addition, they haven't been designed to foster components of continuing care retirement communities and given all the baby boomers planning to retire. what does that mean? what markets will there still be some success? where should people be worried. lay out a framework for us. >> first of all, i'm not talking about big bubble or burst movement. we're getting away from the record effects we saw earlier this century. but i think some areas are disadvantaged over the long run. maybe. it's speculative.

being in a remote suburb of a big city, with no sidewalks, big front lawns, big houses, those don't seem to be doing as well. and i think there's reason to think that it reflects maybe slightly more urbanized outlook. continuing care retirement communities are typically in some kind of apartment building. sometimes they'll have disbursed but not all over, miles apart. townhouse type communities, attached homes might do better. you should buy the home you want and not worry too much. but there might be a trend towards communities rather than disbursed far flung mcmansions. >> your good friend jeremy siegel here. good to see you.

>> first of all, in the tax deduction there's a lot of countries that don't have it. they are high if not higher than in the u.s. one thing i wonder with interest rates so amazingly low. even if the tpebgs raises them. if the 10-year bond goes to 3%. it's now 1.6% that, would be a mortgage i could only dream abou 10, 15 years ago. i think there's probably a lot of slack here before we get to a rate that really could pinch and if they feel they are getting a good price. >> rates might stay low for a long time. right now we set new records for the 15-year low on mortgage rates. >> right.

>> and i think people react especially to that kind of thing. record low. they want to grab it. so there's an immediate impulse on buying pressure. >> you know, my son refinanced down to what we thought was a great rate a few years ago, 4%. now that's not great. now there's 3. i said pay it off. >> how much lower can loan rates go? they can't go below zero. >> 139 on the 10-year that will stand decades from now. >> final question for professor shiller. our friend at the table loves to say the market is going to keep going up. if you could buy real estate or equities right now, what's the bigger bet? >> well, if you don't want the -- the problem with real estate is maybe you want it. you want to live there. if it's just an investment i

would say the stock market. as jeremy has shown and stocks for the long run. two century long history shows a lot of amazingly good performance for stocks. maybe it won't be that good for the future but i bet it's better than housing. >> professor, thank you for joining us. we will be awaiting those numbers. >> i like his advice, though, live where you want to live. >> but maybe rent. >> still nice to have a place if you can. apple is filing debt through deutsche bank. remember, it has a lot of cash but the cash is setting overseas. it's going to be doing this debt instead. today's sec filing does not specify the the amount of debt

apple plays to sell. it has bought $100 million stake in apple. coming up, the end of the bcs era in college football is in sight. it's interesting. kind of confusing. the commissioner of the big 12 conference about the new playoff system long demanded by fans. bny mellon combines investment management & investment servicing, giving us unique insights which help us attract the industry's brightest minds who create powerful strategies for a country's investments which are used to build new schools to build more bright minds. invested in the world. bny mellon.

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welcome back. we are still 610 days from the beginning of the playoff era in college football. but details of the new system are being finalized now. it will include a four-team playoff for the national championship and four high-profile bowl games. joining us is bob bowlsby. welcome. the first thing you think of is, you know, what a great history we have with all the bowl games. it would be nice to do both. it's a fine line to try to walk. >> for the last 15 years i have been largely anti playoff. i have been asked why i changed my mind. it was largely what you said. it was the opportunity to retain what has been best about the bowl games and move forward with a measure of the playoff. >> we have been fortunate

because a lot of times i think we have gotten the national champion right most of the time, right? i'm just thinking of the money. of two semifinals, doing three in a row on new year's eve, new year's day. i think it can be additive. i don't think it would cannibalize it. it could be new money for colleges. >> well, there isn't any question that the model that has two semifinals and a final game as stand-alone entitisis more valuable in the media market. and more valuable in other ways than our current model is. >> not everyone knows it, bob. okay. so you do the final. and the committee figures out who the top four teams are. you make sure you get a normal

rose bowl. you get those two conferences. everybody will watch that either way. and two other rival conferences with big name teams the other four would be just as they are now. because they don't matter now a lot on of the goal games that don't involve the top five team. >> i think that's one of the good things that's happened with this model. we have recaptured new year's eve and new year's day. as i grew up, that's what i always remember is three big bowl games on new year's day and an array of bowl games around it. and i think this is really going to allow some crisp focus on those two days, six games over a couple of days. and i think it's going to be a special part of the holidays. and we haven't had that in the past. we have been greatly dispersed the last number of years.

>> you're right. this year it's like you get excited about new year's day. when is the national championship? it is like a week later. on a week night. too late for me. i don't think i saw it. i saw the results. this will help. you look at the money. what did sepb pay for all of this? well, how many years is that? espn. >> it's an average of 470 million over the life of the contract. it is certainly a lot of money. it's also a lot of football. and i think, you know, the money was obviously a consideration as we put this thing together. but as i mentioned earlier, this isn't the model that would have generated the greatest amount of revenue. >> you don't think we need to pay these guys, right? they get a lot out of it. they can go to the nfl. you were at stanford. so i guess you figured -- you don't need to be just a good athlete or a good student.

obviously at stanford some of the best football teams in recent years with great academics. >> well, i think it can be done. stanford model is a good example. to your point about paying student athletes, i think we will have made a big mistake if we ever create an employee/employer relationship with our student athletes. this is about higher education. now, having said that it's going to be a real burden for families to travel two weeks in a row to travel to the semis and to the national championship game. we have actually talked about ways in which we could change ncaa rules in order to accommodate some form of benefit through tickets and travel and hotels and the like for the families of players that far participating in the games. it's also a thing, an element of a larger play stkwhrauf people don't think about.

they will be traveling four weeks in a row. it decimates the bowl environment and puts a real hardship on student athletes and their families. >> there's too many playoffs. i was going to ask you one more thing. goodell talks about how great football is on tv. worry about whether people want to go to games. is it tough getting into bowl games. there are empty seats in the stands. >> it's not just football. basketball has seen some of the diminishment of live gate as well. in large measure we're competing against ourselves. television has gotten so good. you have the competition of live versus your living room. in many ways your living room is more cost efficient and a better

viewing experience. we really have to spend time in the years ahead on the stadium experience or we will find out people will be leaving our venues in droves. >> all right, sir, thank you. r but i think it will work. i'm not making any plans for new year's day. >> anyway -- go ahead. >> we're excited about it, and i think each step of the way, i think we've gotten it it right. we still have work to do on the selection process and the committee, but the commissioners are very much like minded on how that's going to fit together and we need to find the right people to populate it, but this is very close to being what the public asked for. >> yeah. >> and i think we're -- i think we're putting something together that will serve us well in the years ahead. >> march madness. that's what march is now, basketball. so it can happen with the playoffs. thank you. we appreciate it. >> good to be with you.

>> coming up, several stocks on the move ahead of the opening bell and we'll check in with jim kraemer who is down at the new york stock exchange. that's next right after this short break. tomorrow on "squawk box," an early read on friday's employment report. we'll get adp private payroll numbers for the month of april. plus quarterly results from merck, comcast and via com. "squawk box" starts tomorrow at 6:00 a.m. eastern. is our busine. we've reduced taxes and lowered costs to save businesses more than two billion dollars to grow jobs, cut middle class income taxes to the lowest rate in sixty years, and we're creating tax free zones for business startups. the new new york is working creating tens of thousands of new businesses, and we're just getting started. to grow or start your business visit thenewny.com the little details. the little moments that make life

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>> welcome back, everybody. let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer is standing by, jim, i know you were watching those pfizer numbers earlier. what's surprising is the dow futures recovered some of the ground they'd recovered this morning. >> that's been the pattern. we shrug off any company reports of bad numbers. almost every company that reported a bad number, it doesn't seem to matter. the strongest stocks are the european stocks whether it be deutsche bank even after they did a deal. ubs, i know they had a great morning with ubs ceo, and even plain van ella companies like bp. i mean, european stocks are a better place to be right now. >> you sound surprised by that. >> well, i just think, i saw

barclays good last week, and i wonder if the european banks would do well. i thought that would put a damper on it and everybody wants deutsche bank's stock. it is a big role reversal here. our bank did not pop with numbers and they're enamored with european banks. >> do you think it's premature? >> no, i don't. i had the eaton ceo on last night and the ppg ceo and they're saying look, europe's bottomed. >> a guy named bolsby talking about the bowl game. >> you asked the question, why don't we give them course credit. it's about education, but joe, these guys are pros. let's treat them like pros. >> think about the potential -- i thought about ruining the bowl games, but can you imagine if we got four of them. do you think we've gotten it rid

with the regional championships and not all of the time. >> i think it's pretty exciting. i think it rings true. it's not going to be the nfl because it is college, but i think your questions raise some real issues which is when are we going to recruit these kids and you go to separate will schools in a lot of places. ? are you going on another one? when's the next one? >> that's fun, man. that must be fun for you. >> villanova was great. >> bradley cooper, that picture, he went to villa nova and he transferred. >> jim, yeah. i don't like him, and he's tall. i was hoping he's 5'5". >> he's the coolest guy in the room. >> he was. and by the way, he was the biggest star in the room and also the most down to earth guy in the room and that was

fantastic. >> we hang out a little bit, as you can see from that picture. >> perfect. >> see you later. >> coming up, our guest host, jeremy segal and mike santelli. we'll give him the last word when squawk returns. we learned a lot of us have known someone who's lived well into their 90s. and that's a great thing. but even though we're living longer, one thing that hasn't changed: the official retirement age. ♪ the question is how do you make sure you have the money you need to enjoy all of these years. ♪

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>> ubs shares are high er. we have to get out. >> we do. >> jeremy, mike. we want to thank you guys both very much for being with us. we really appreciate your time. >> right now time for "squawk on the street." ♪ ♪ ♪ >> a little charlie parker to kick off international jazz day today. good morning. welcome to squawk on the street. carl quintanilla with jim kramer and david faber live at the new york stock exchange. we have the shiller home price report out and the results are on the screen. david will join us shortly to break down those numbers and another good one this month. futures coming off yesterday's all-time high from the s&p. pfizer, etna, starwood and a two-day fed meeting begins as well and markets are mixed in ro