tv Closing Bell CNBC April 30, 2013 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
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seeing spend come up a little bit, so we're cautiously optimistic. you know, it's not going to be back where it was, but we think it's starting to improve. >> reporter: mandy, i asked here in the lab, they are not working on a bacon dr. pepper. i tried to talk them into it, but so far, no go. >> you keep on trying, jane. >> reporter: billion-dollar idea. >> thanks for watching "street signs," "closing bell" is next. hi, everybody. good afternoon! welcome to the closing bell. we're into the final stretch of the day. i'm maria bartiromo from los angeles coming from the global conference sponsored by the hilton institute. >> you have that glow about you, maria, you must be in los angeles. i'm bill griffeth here at the new york stock exchange. markets are closing out the month kind of flat right now. we're waiting for the fed meeting tomorrow. we'll get some more guidance there. earnings this morning from the likes of pfizer, sent that stock lower.
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pharmaceuticals lower. but that bond offering from apple was a huge success. that stock is up 3% right now. so a mixed day, but generally, the bias is to the upside right now, maria. >> yeah, big success on apple. lots of buzz around that. we, of course, are on top of these historic markets and we'll be getting into that in a few minutes with a very special guest. we have major asset allocators here at this conference. scott minerd is coming up soon and talk about how he's placing capital. later, i'm speaking with the former british prime minister, tony blair, john calamos, and eric cantor. a hot show coming here, a huge day at this global conference. >> everybody's at the conference. here's where we stand right now. down open this morning, but we have since come back. right now the dow is up eight points, near the highs for the session. and this would be the 16th consecutive up tuesday if we were to close positive. just an incredible run for that market. the nasdaq, also higher, powered
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higher by apple, which was up 3% today. it's up 17 points right now, the nasdaq composite is, and the s&p is trading higher as well. and any positive close for the s&p will be another new all-time high. we squeaked one out yesterday, so any green arrow there is a new all-time high. so what's driving this market, as we head into the final hour of the trading month of april? bob pisani is in the middle of the action for us right now. robert? >> william, meandering a little bit on the stock market, but two big stories is. apple and pitney bose. apple bit it, $17 billion, the biggest corporate bond offering ever. roche holdings was number two, used to be number one, but there are the others involved. it's the biggest out there. what's it mean for corporate bonds? a lot more allocation out to the tech sector. bottom line for apple, up six of the last seven days. it bottomed way back, april 18th.
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$389, now $443. take a look at one sector or one etf that might be buying this. that's the biggest corporate bond etf out there, they'll certainly be buying into that. that is essentially sitting near an historic high. a lot of interest in etfs and in any kind of bonds right now. dividends, the other story today. pitney bowes, we're talking about postage meters, a decline market. they missed on earnings, but more importantly, they cut their dividend in half. 9% was the dividend yield, used to be the second biggest on the s&p 500. the volume is six times normal on pitney bowes and it's down 14%. big, big concerns about dividends. everybody wants to be in on that. bottom line here is cliffs natural cut theirs in february. bill, that stock dropped as well. it does matter. back to you. >> thank you, bob. we'll be checking back with you a little bit later. let's dig deeper into the latest market action as we close out the month of april. today's "closing bell" exchange is joe quinlan and our own rick santelli.
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joe, the tradition is when you come to may, you start to think about selling into the summertime. do you think it's going to happen this year? >> it might, bill, because we've had such a great run the last four months. we're telling clients to stick in there, buy the cyclicals, information, technology, the industrials, because we see more upside. it's going to be a grind, but we're going to stay in the market here. >> rick santelli, what's the scoop on the floor about apple? this big deal, everyone's talking about a big success. are you hearing lots of commentary down there in chicago? >> it's been the topic on the trading floor, for a variety of reasons. first of all, many down here don't ask a question, would you rather buy stock or would you rather buy apple securities. the question down here is, why are institutions in the fixed income business so enamored with this deal, as bob's saying, $50 billion against $17, a bid to cover 3 to 1 for diversification and a general shortage of high-quality collateral.
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so there's no surprise, and, you know, they're calling it anywhere from 65 to 75 over ten-year, 90 to 100 over 30-year. people are saying, why would anybody buy securities with those paltry yields. those are a lot juicier than treasuries and it's a great name. >> yeah, joe, the bond that apple issued yields 2.4%. the stock of apple yields 2.8%. which would you rather buy right now? >> you know, i'm still focused on the equity side of the apple. i mean, if you look at the global demand yet to come out of china, india, the emerging markets, there's lots of upside for this company, globally, and here at home as well. so not that we're -- i don't recommend stocks, but apple's a great brand, a great global brand. there's more upside here. >> in a market that's up in the double digits, year-to-date, what do you want to be doing, joe, in terms of asset allocation? >> well, maria, we're looking more cyclically.
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as you know, the defensive sectors have led the way this year. but i think global growth will accelerate in the second half of the year. and dare i say, even europe will come back by the end of the year, certain parts of it, but they'll create the demand. but there's good demand coming out of the emerging markets. the u.s. economy is okay, not great. and i think europe will turn around. the cyclical story, still, i think, is going to play out by the end of the year. >> and you know, maria, joe likes mexico right now. >> committee do like mexico. >> that's my favorite place. it's hot! that's all i'm hearing about. so much money moving into mexico. >> a lot of money, maria. they're tied into our industrial base here in north america. our other favorite place, emerging markets, south korea and poland. two other good places to put some money to work. >> all right. joe, thanks for joining us. see you guys later. rick, thanks for being with us as well. maria? >> thanks, gentleman. scott minerd is chief investment officer with guggenheim partners global. he puts $180 billion in assets to work in this market. he says we're right on the edge
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of a correction for stocks. maybe 10%, even more than 10% on that correction. let's find out what's behind this call. he joins me right now in a first on cnbc interview from the global conference. so 10% correction on the horizon. why do i feel like everyone is saying that and it's still not happening? >> well, i think that the data's starting to come through now, maria, that's syndicating that expectations got ahead of the real economy. everybody thought that after we went through, you know, the fiscal cliff, we got through the sequester, the worst-case story didn't happen. now, you know, the consumer is starting to run out of money. we saw the chicago purchasing managers' index dip below 50%. on balance, most of the numbers aren't reaching expectation. and the market's just ahead of itself. >> but i guess the issue is, here we've got the federal reserve, providing this, you know, regular stimulus, $85 billion of bond purchases a month. we donate see the unemployment rate, where they're targeting, but we know that the fed is going to still be there. how do you get in front of this
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chain? i recognize that the economy is just so-so. what's going to be the catalyst to actually create that 10% sell-off? >> i think it's just further erosion over time. it's interesting, the break in the price of gold a couple of weeks ago is sort of like a canary in the coal mine. we saw how quickly money can leave a sector and then a bottom seems to occur and people get comfortable again. i just think that once people wake up to the fact that the economy is slowing a lot more than we'd expected, not that we're going to have a recession, not that we're going into a bear mark, that we had priced for perfection. a month ago, i couldn't get anybody to tell me anything that was wrong with the economy. >> are there areas that you think are going to lead this correction? what are the areas you think that are most, you know, overvalued, that perhaps could be the stocks that get hit hardest? >> well, i think that you want to get the cyclicals, the consumer discretionary stocks, those are probably good candidates to go.
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i think the financials will have a setback. and probably, some push down in tech. but i do actually see technology and financials as a good place to be for the long run. >> well, i'm glad you said that. i was just going to say to you, let's talk tech for a moment. when you look at a stock like ibm, way down from the highs, you look at a stock like apple, cut in half, google, so is there value in this area, given the fact that, you know, sure, this was an area you wanted to own last year, but they're selling these stocks. >> well, they are. and i think that's part of the -- it's part of the expectation of the global slowdown, which is occurring. and as business and industry delays making capital investment, this is a good place at the margin not to invest. if you hold off, it's cheaper next year. but ultimately, that's all going to turn around. and i look at things over a three to five-year horizon. and i think in the next three to five years, technology is going to be a relative outperformer. and one thing i would note is,
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you look at apple was the perfect example today. these companies have steady cash flow, they have big cash balances. their valuations are very modest. there's an opportunity to give money back to shareholders or to make an acquisition or do something that's a catalyst for increase. >> oh, for sure. but isn't that also a discussion point for debate? a lot of people will say, look, why did apple announce this enormous buyback? why did apple announce this higher dividend. does that mean they're facing an innovation gap, that this is the only thing they can think to do with their money? >> that's an interesting discussion to have. and i think it could be very true. but when you have something like apple priced at the multiple it's at today, ladened down with so much cash, the cash-adjusted p.e. is so low, it's a value stock, so you really don't need a growth story in a value to become. >> do you own apple right now? >> no, i don't. >> let me ask you about the federal reserve.
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when would you expect the easing to beginning? >> the tapering? >> the tapering back of all the stimulus? >> i think it's further out there than people think? >> 2014? >> 2014, on balance. >> 2015? >> could even go that long. i doubt it would go to 2015. i don't see the fed beginning to take a move away from the zero interest. the earliest would be 2017 and probably as late as maybe 2019. i think we're here to stay at the zero bound for quite a while. and qe, the risk sit will be a lot longer and bigger than we think. >> now, you said you like technology in terms of one area, perhaps, that is not going to get hit as hard as some of the other areas in this 10% correction that you're lacking at. once we get a 10% correction, are you going to be a buyer on the dip? >> absolutely. >> absolutely. >> you know, i liken this to 2004. if you go back and look at the markets in 2004, you look at where fed policy was, the fed basically started to remove accommodation, but it did it
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very slowly and it fell behind the comfortable. and in 2007, we finally got to the top. but when you look at where we are today, the fed is not going to remove accommodation very quickly. it's going to fall behind the curve. i think stocks will be 30, 35% higher in the next three years. and so it's probably a good time to be in equities. >> well, that's an important follow-up that i just asked you, by the way. real quick, on financials, you said that's another group. what's the one bank you would buy in financials? >> well, i typically don't comment about banks and where i'm invested is in xlf. >> scott, always nice to have you on the program. come back soon. >> take care. >> appreciate your time. bill, over to you. about 50 minutes left, hanging on to a slight gain on the dow. any positive close for the s&p is a new all-time high. pfizer has been a big drag on the dow today after missing earnings expectations and lowering its outlook. when we come back, we'll look at the charts and see if it's time to get out of what has been a
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very hot stock this year. and later on the program, we're getting invest advice from two of wall street's biggest name, john calamos and oak tree capital chairman howard marks will be with me telling me where they're finding opportunities in this market. and we're also talking with the russian billionaire, uri milner.
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welcome back. we have good news for consumers to report. gas prices continuing to decline, despite the upcoming start of the summer driving season. let's get up with sharon epperson. she's at the nymex with that angle. >> maria, when it comes to what we pay at the pump, it all comes from gasoline futures in large part. that is what indicates what you're going to pay at the gas pump. and that's down about 10% in the month of april, looking at the futures contract. and what does this mean? we've seen prices at the pump at $3.50 a gallon or so, slightly above that level, today, down about 13 cents in the past month or so. and we're looking at prices that, according to aaa, could fall all the way to $3.20 to $3.40 a gallon by the middle of the summer. we usually see prices peak in the spring and then start to decline as the summer driving season gets underway.
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now, all of this is contingent on the fact that we don't have a host of refinery problems and there's no big middle eastern event or national event that don't send prices skyrocketing over the summer. but if this happens and we continue to see the pace we're going at right now, aaa says we could see prices at $3.20 a gallon for the national average. still, half of americans say $3 a gallon is too high for me. back to you, bill. >> oh, sharon, you had us at hello. just tell us more, please. let's talk about pfizer. those shares falling 3% today after the drug giant missed earnings estimates because of decreased product demand and that strengthening dollar. now, with the stock up more than 16% this year, is it time to get out? do you buy more on this dip? let's start talking numbers on pfizer. today, on the technical side is jeff tomzula and jeff dorsey. good to see you both. jeffrey, this stock, i was just looking, three years it's gone
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from 14 to 30, so a double in that time. what do you think? how's it look to you? >> bill, it's been a tremendous move for this stock. and today was your warning sign. this is your sign to start taking some profits and almost get out of the stock completely. so let's look at the chart right now. you can see the tremendous move that it's had over the last year. and if you put up that 50-day moving average, that is your line in the sand. if it closes below that 50-day moving average, you get out of the stock. in our view, there is more risk to the downside than there is opportunity on the upside. >> okay, so you don't like it from a technical standpoint. pat, what about you? are there drugs in the pipeline that might excite investors? >> there are a few, but nothing that could replace that blockbuster lipitor that went offpatent recently. which is a huge issue, because after you've been selling a drug for many, many years, your expenses are pretty much gone away. it's a very high-margin product, which makes it hard to replace from an earnings standpoint.
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and that's the key question with pfizer, there's almost no earnings growth going forward. while you're getting paid a nice 2.3% yield right now, that dividend is unlikely to grow in the future, without increasing the proportion of earnings that is paid out in dividends, and that is not sustainable over the long haul without more growth, which pfizer doesn't have. >> so you're not buying it either. i hate when the guests agree on this segment. jeff, do you have a support level you might think about getting in at at some point? >> i would like to see a 10% or 15% decline in the stock. but bill, we have many of these stocks. and investors need to start thinking about the tremendous historic move. i mean, over the last 12 months, it's up over 30-something percent. that's historic, for pfizer. >> and for drug stocks overall, that's for sure. >> absolutely. >> especially a mature drug stock, like a pfizer. good to see you both. thank you for your thoughts today in "talking numbers." let's take a break here. we'll come back with about 40 minutes left on the trading session.
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the dow up a fraction right now. and i'm told the bias is to the upside, maria. we'll see if we can close out and have our 16th consecutive up day for a tuesday, for the dow jones industrial average. incredible. >> that is just remarkable. up next, what does former british prime minister tony blair think about all the monuo that central banks are pumping into the economy and will it end badly? >> i'm not sure, is the answer. >> mr. blair on that and a lot more coming up in a moment, on the euro zone in particular. and in particular, cyprus. then, chief investment officers of two of the country's largest public pension funds will give us their take on whether these markets and this historic rally still has legs. we'll find out where they are allocating capital in that exclusive, later on, on "closing bel bell". tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you should've seen me today. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 when the spx crossed above its 50-day moving average, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i saw the trend. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it looked really strong. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i jumped right on it. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 since i've switched to charles schwab... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 ...i've been finding opportunities like this
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welcome back to this special edition of the "closing bell." i just sat down with former british prime minister, tony blair, at the milken conference here. he told me that it is going to take some time for the european economy to recover. i asked him, is europe out of the woods at this point? and i also asked him his thoughts on cyprus. we started on a topic that remains a big worry, certainly, for investors around the world, is europe off the woods on that debt crisis? >> the big problem right now, i think, in europe, is probably as much political as it is economic. in other words, countries are
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trying to go through this incredibly difficult period of change. and you've got very low growth or no growth. you've got very high unemployment, in spain now, the youth unemployment has topped almost to 55, 56%. these are huge numbers. so for countries to try to make change, without economic growth, this is a big political pressure, and the sort of pressure on society now, on the politics of countries. you've got all these rather split parties, so it's very fragi fragile. >> so recently, we saw what happened in cyprus, and i think people were very concerned that the solution in cyprus will become a standard or something that others will follow, whereas the depositors really take a haircut. what was your take on the bailout of cyprus and whether or not this is going to show up in other economies? >> i think it was the only thing that could be done in the circumstance, but it in a way illustrates the problem, because if you're not careful, you're going to get a fragmentation, even within the euro zone. so some countries are treated
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one way, other countries are treated another way. i still think, i think the last time we spoke, i said, the only thing i think that works is a kind of grand bargain that deals not just with the liquidity issue, but with the solvency and growth issues as well. and that means you've got to have policies for growth and policies for reform, structure reform, welfare pensions, state services, together. but if you simply offer people austerity, one side, and no reform on the other, you're going to have a big problem. >> so what about the austerity, though, going on, for example, right now, in the uk? all of a sudden, we've got a mixed debate on whether or not, you know, david cameron and the chancellor's ideas are going to work, because the economy is still looking anemic. >> well, here's the thing. for me, this debate between austerity and growth is a right/wrong thing, not a right/left thing. in other words, you've got to
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have a deficit reduction plan, but if necessary, you've got to calibrate that, so that it's not happening so sharply, that your growth levels or your deficit becomes worse and you get a downward spiral. so, look, i think it's possible for the government to adjust. i think in a way, it is adjusting. but i think it's important to balance the monetary effect that the bank of demand policies are taking with a fiscal, you know, a fiscal plan that allows our economy to carry on growing. >> we are, of course, in a global, connected economy. and the emerging markets, certainly throughout asia, seem to be showing real growth rates. can we see the interconnectedness on the positive side of things, rather than the interconnectedness on the negative side of things, which is what we saw in 2007 and 2008? do you think that is going to be helpful for the u.s. and the euro zone? >> yes, i think it could be. i mean, i'm optimistic about the new chinese leadership. i think they're really, smart, capable people who understand the next stages of reform in
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china are important, not just for china, but because of the interconnectedness of the economy. and i'm optimistic about places like africa. i think there are some great potential there in latin america. out in the far east, in the asean group of companies. there's a possible to keep things going. but i come back to the same things, which is that the west has to really sort its issues out to recover confidence the way we want. >> and yet, there's a lot of uncertainty about the regulatory environment. we've got dodd/frank, for example, only a small portion of dodd/frank has been implemented. what's your take on how the regulatory environment changes or should change to, in fact, encourage that kind of confidence that we're talking about? >> i think we need two things. first of all, we need a bit of predictability. in other words, whatever process we've gone through, we then want continual change on it.
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and the second thing is, i think, we've got to take a view as policy makers, where we say, a thriving financial sector is actually an important part of the recovery. so my view, very strongly here is, playing the blame game continually, on,, you know -- >> the banks or -- >> well, in the end, we need banks to lend, we need them to be out there, doing, you know, the, you know, main street business of lending to companies, giving people the chance to buy and own property. and they've got to do it responsibly, of course. but we want to see a bit of that confidence back in the financial sector, too. and that's where the regulatory side, we've got to be careful we don't flatten a part of our economy that is -- this is true of the uk, by the way, as well, which is absolutely essential to the recovery. >> do you worry about the downside risks of all this easy money, like, from the ecb, like the federal reserve, even japan right now, with all of this stimulus. what is the downside risk?
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>> you know, i find that really hard. i find it, one of the problems, policy makers about this whole financial crisis, is this it's intellectually difficult, you know? and so, yes, in one way, i have an anxiety about all that money being pumped in. but on the other hand, i say, if that wasn't happening, what state would we be in? and for sure, the actions of the european central bank, for example, have, you know, they bought the bond yields down in spain and italy significantly, you know, they made a big difference. so, you know, i'm not sure is the answer. >> i love his line, growthe gro versus austerity debate is about right versus wrong, not right versus left. >> that was very good, i agree with you. >> great analysis from tony blair. we're headed towards the close, 30 minutes left. the dow up four points, the nasdaq up a point and a half and that is good enough for an all-time high for the s&p 500 if it closes positive today.
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we'll see. >> bill, coming up, he was an early investor in facebook and an early investor in twitter. up next, yuri milner sits down with me telling me what he thinks is the next big thing in social media. >> also, home prices posting their best annual increase since 2006. that's got some concerned that housing may be forming a new bubble. but diana olick is here to explain why that could be a myth. that's coming up later on "closing bell." it raises the price of fishmeal, cattle feed and beef. bny mellon turns insights like these into powerful investment strategies. for a university endowment. it funds a marine biologist... who studies the peruvian anchovy. invested in the world. bny mellon. [ male announcer ] the first look is only the beginning.
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the nasdaq composite has been outperforming the other major averages today thanks largely to apple, which apparently finally has a new hit on its hands. seema mody has been covering this story all day and she has details. >> that's right. a big day for apple. our cnbc reporting shows that apple's bond sale closed at $17 billion, the largest ever for a non-financial firm. it would have a yield of roughly 2.4%. this would be below its stock dividend yield of 2.8%, but keep in mind, much higher than the yield of some of its peers in the technology space, including google, microsoft, and ibm. these numbers, of course, are subject to change. aside from apple, a broad rally
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in technology today. cloud computing firm act mai continues to move higher. and facebook shares posting gains ahead of its earnings report tomorrow. maria, back to you. >> seema, thank you so much. my next guest was an early investor in facebook, an early investor in twitter. we want to find out from him what he thinks is the next big thing now. joining us right now is yuri milner, founder of digital sky technologies and it's great to have you on the program. >> thank you. >> thanks so much for joining us. i want to talk to you about what you and sergey brin of google and mark zuckerberg have teamed up in, giving $5 million to emerging scientists. you are also -- i'm sorry? >> $3 million. >> and you also award physics prizes. >> yes. >> what are you doing and tell us what you're trying to
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achiev achieve. >> well, i think that fundamental science is fundamentally underappreciated in our current world. it was not always the case. a few hundred years ago, maybe even a couple thousand years ago, people who were moving signs forward in a fundamental way were much more respected in a society. and we kind of decided to get together and try to change that, so that we would have new heroes that young people can aspire to be. >> i like the idea that you don't have to wait so long to get that money, like you do the nobel prize. but you've compared it to the nobel prize, but it's better, because you're actually giving the award right then. >> well, we try to go back to where nobel prize actually was, about a hundred years ago. it was designed to award achievements in the last 12 months. and then it slowly deviated from that, the original premise. so we are actually taking this
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idea and trag to implement it in the 21st century. >> would you consider this philanthropy or would you consider this an investment? i mean, many of your winners have a background in cancer research, right? is technology leading us closer to a cure? >> well, this particular project is definitely philanthropy and it should be viewed as such. but this people who got the prize, in the first year, we awarded eleven people with $3 million prizes. actually, most of them are leading experts in the world in curing cancer and other deadly diseases. it is more or less understood right now that in the next 20 years, there will be a major breakthrough in cancer and other genetically -- genetically driven diseases. and this will be a major breakthrough for the mankind, and this will have a meaningful
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impact on how long we live. >> well, i mean, i think the entire audience is wishing you well on that one. that's for sure. >> let me ask you a bit about some of your investments. you invested $200 million in facebook. you had a significant investment in zynga, group-on, of course, twitter as well. talk to us about how you allocate capital, how you see technology growing and where are the growth spots in the next 20 years. >> well, we have invested over $1 billion in facebook, at some point. and overall, we have invested close to $3 billion in the last three years. and it's only in internet and related technologies. we are constantly looking out for new ideas there. and this $3 billion was basically only allocated to slightly more than ten companies. so our investment strategy is to
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write big checks to a small number of companies. >> so how does this develop? where do you think the next big thing is? >> well, if you try to completely boil it down to fundamental principles, internet is about two things. one is connectivity, and we know that the number of connected people will go from roughly $2.5 billion to $5 billion pretty rapidly in the next five years. and the second big idea is accumulation of data and processing of data. so connectivity and accumulation. that was the internet of the last 20 years. i think the next ten years would really be about processing this data. and trying to understand the data and trying to make sense out of this data. and these are the companies that we are looking out for right now. >> so processing this data, mining this data, because it's so much data, we keep hearing the term big data. does that include also protecting data in terms of cybersecurity threats?
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>> i think so. i think that, you know, every technology can be used for the benefit as well as used by people. we're investing in companies who are actually serving people well and providing some useful services. but there will be some companies develop that will try to fight with cybercrime as well. >> big debate around apple. what do you think about that company? >> well, i think apple is a great company. we don't invest in public companies, so that's not something that is actionable for us. but apple, no question, is a great company, which is here to stay. >> let me ask you about twitter, because this, of course, has been a big story recently. on your twitter investment, there have been some high-profile twitter hacks. of course, the most significant, last week, when the associated press twitter account was hacked. and it put out a false alert of an attack at the white house,
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briefly tanked the market, big story. what did you think when that was happening? >> that basically shows the power of social media and the kind of world that we live in. i think that no big company is really protected from that sort of attacks. i think that will happen once in a while. i hope that not too many people benefited from that market correction. but i think that it's sort of inevitable when, you know, the interesting feature of this company is that we invest in and they grow very fast. when they grow very fast, we have a lot of problems to solve simultaneously. technology problems, you know, hr problems, management problems, structure problems. and when they grow so fast, things like that might happen. >> but do you worry that t could be, you know, some devalue of twitter, as it looks to go public, because this is just
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happening right before? >> well, i don't think so. i think twitter is a very powerful and unique tool in distributing and disseminating information. it's a very interesting influence mechanism that developed over the last five years and you are very well aware of. and i think that was seen last week. >> for sure. are you seeing a lot of new upstarts coming out with ideas for cybersecurity, mining the data? you said this is what we're looking at right now. are you seeing newcomers right now starting up in this vein? >> yes, just finishing up with twitter, i think the interesting feature about that influence mechanism is that it's completely decentralized. you know, we got used to, in the last hundred years, that the influence is really very concentrated in the few spots, but twitter is really changing
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that. there are hundreds of thousands of people with thousands and tens of thousands of followers. so the influence is really getting very dispersed, which will have very interesting effects for all areas of our life. now, back to your question, i think we see a lot of interesting start ups that do analyze data, me amendment to invest late stage, so we have to see those companies grow a little bit before we will be able to really be meaningful and helpful to them. but early stage, we see a lot of activity in that space and i think we should be watching out to see these companies emerge. you know, my call is that in the next ten years, there will be at least another 30 companies built, with a market cap of over $10 billion. and there will be at least a few companies built with a market
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cap of over $50 billion. >> wow. >> in the last 20 years, we have seen less than ten companies over $50 billion market cap, which actually emerged into a $1 trillion industry, which is internet today. >> sure. >> we believe that in the next ten years, another $1 trillion would be added to the accumulative market cap of that sector. >> and you, of course, have the front seat. yuri, good to have you on the program. thank you so much. we so appreciate your time today. yuri milner joining us, digital sky technologies. bill, over to you. >> back here at the front seat of the new york stock exchange, the dow is up eight points as we head toward the close with about 15 minutes left. if the s&p closes positive, it closes out the month at another new all-time high. well, we've been hearing a lot about sell in may and go away. well, mike santoli is breaking down which sectors you should be buying into as we head into the summertime. we'll check in with him, shortly.
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also, steve liesman explains why more economists and market experts are extending their expectations for when the fed may start tapering off its economic stimulus measures. that's coming up on the "closing bell." welcnew york state, where cutting taxes for families and businesses is our business. we've reduced taxes and lowered costs to save businesses more than two billion dollars to grow jobs, cut middle class income taxes to the lowest rate in sixty years, and we're creating tax free zones for business startups. the new new york is working creating tens of thousands of new businesses, and we're just getting started. to grow or start your business visit thenewny.com
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we've heard a lot of fed officials hinting recently that the fed officials may start tapering off this year, but steve liesman explains why wall street isn't buying that notion. >> forget this year, what about next year? our cnbc survey of economists, strategists, and fund managers, not only are they increasing according to the january, march, and april surveys that we did, the amount of qe this year as they get more and more serious, or believe that the fed is going to keep its current pace. but take a look here. qe into 2014, i know you tease with qe forever, well, it's qe at least in 2014. 40 of our 46 respondents say there will be qe in 2014. there's the average amount they are expecting. now, let's take a look at what's happened to the timeline. what they've done compared to our march survey, that's the top half here, in april. watch what they've done. this is when they thought the tapering would start. april survey, moved it ahead by
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a month. how about stopping qe? that was a may 2014 phenomenon. now it's july. how about when they'll start hiking rates? first quarter 2015, now second quarter. take the wide view of the whole thing and what you see is, they've shifted everything ahead a little bit, a couple months to a quarter. now, while that's happened, they're also increasing concerns on wall street about the deficit cutting that has happened. a big shift that we've chronicled here. we asked january and march, does the u.s. need to enact a definite plan now. 80% said, do it right now. now take a look at the april results, much less support. a slim majority saying, we've got to do this now. more people saying that we have time to enact the plan and even 9%, some growth there, saying, we don't need to do it now. now, take a look at the next screen, what people are saying about -- we have a surplus of deficit opinions. the makeup of congress is what
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needs changing, said john donnellson. fix entitlements, says phil orlando. the sequester equals a political dysfunction equals a activist fed. tony crescenzi says that. a lot of commentary along that mien. and here's dean baker. "someone has to explain to them very slowly that they're just slowing growth and increasing unemployment." that was in that 35% of folks who said, maybe we shouldn't be doing quite as much of debt reduction as wall street sees these deficit cuts hitting the economy. you can read all about the survey and get the full results on cnbc.com. back to you. >> and we will do that. thank you so much, steve. we are in the final stretch of trading here. we've got a market that has turned up a bit, up 15 points on the dow jones industrial average. and even though it's a fractional move on the s&p 500, we are once again in uncharted
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territory, bill. >> a lot of stock to be bought here, the bias definitely to the upside as we head toward the close, maria. we'll keep an eye on that. and when we come back, investor lee munson tells us why he thinks the underperforming technology sector is about to take control and lead this market even higher. stay tuned. ♪ (train horn) vo: wherever our trains go, the economy comes to life. norfolk southern. one line, infinite possibilities.
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welcome back. the market higher for the day, but our next guest says several economic signs point to a pullback ahead. >> that is liz ann saunders joining us and we have lee munson to break down the markets. you actually would welcome a pullback of some kind? >> i'm an unapologetic bull, and we all sound like broken records to say we're due for a little bit of a pullback. i don't think it would be terribly sinister and i would like to see some of that optimism measured by some of the sentiment. but i think it ultimately would be a buying opportunity. >> maria? >> i think, you know, when you see a market like this, which keeps going higher, liz ann, and you know that the federal reserve is not going to be ending its stimulus anytime soon, what do you want to do? do you want to get cautious and sell into the rally, or do you
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think you'd want to be picking your spots and where are those spots? >> i don't think you want to be cute and try to trade around this thing. i think for investors who are looking to maybe up equity allocations, you may want to wait a little bit here. but i certainly think it's a buying opportunity, although not much. you know, you've had defensive leadership. it's not just been sort of a fear trade. i think it's also been a yield trade. starting to see maybe a little bit of a sign that the cyclicals are picking up some steam, but may not quite be at the point yet where they're a buy relative to some of the more defensive areas. >> lee, what have the earnings told you? >> let's look at what the news has done. you take a look at a procter & gamble, ibm, at&t, earnings comes out, it drops drown, resets to the bottom. there are very few things like a netflix or a nike that's actually popping with earnings. so we've had most two to one earnings beat on the s&p 500, those big names. but you also have two three to one where we've had gap downs
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and resets towards the bottom. so we have some earnings growth in the s&p, but stocks are acting poorly. i think it's a sign of decumulation versus accumulation. i'm with liz. i want to sit back and wait for that buying opportunity. and i think if you're trying to mess around with particular stocks in earnings season, i think you should stop. >> okay. maria? >> well, when you see other asset classes, are there safety nets that you can come up with in other asset classes? i guess, you know, gold comes to mind, but, of course, we just saw that huge sell-off in gold. where do you hide? >> you know, i actually think in relatively terms from a safety perspective, it's the u.s. equity market, certainly relative to other equity markets, whether it's emerging markets or other developed markets. i don't think gold is there yet. i think that momentum trade is still on the downside and i think there's still -- it's still a relatively one-sided trade. there's still more money to come out. i think it's been the defensive u.s. equity stocks. and i still think that that makes some sense, at least in the near term. and then the next trade is more
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toward the cyclical area. >> where would you put defensive money? >> if i want to commit capital right now, i would do it in the emerging markets, especially small capital. they've lagged all year, the valuations are reasonable. if i see more of a pullback, i'm backing the s&p 500. >> okay. two people looking for a correction. you're not alone on that either, by the way. good to see you both. thank you for joining. we'll take a break and come back with the closing countdown to wrap up this month, maria. >> and then later, are across-the-board budget cuts hurting americans as much as president obama says they are? eric cantor will react in an interview at 4:40 p.m. today. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.
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all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ one minute left in the month for the trade. watch this. i've got terry dolan up here with me on set. look at this, terry. for the month, it's like the kentucky derby, the dow is up 1.63%, the nasdaq up 1.72%, and the s&p up 1.68%. everybody had virtually the same performance for the month. what do you make of that? >> you know, it's one of those anomalies, if you will. i don't know how many times in history, you'd have to go back and ask arthur cashin, how many times -- >> he'll know, by the way. do you think we go higher in may or do we sell in may and go away? >> i'm a seller, a net seller on balance. the trend is in tact, like we
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keep speaking about, but i think the consumers are running out of gas in terms of their spending, i think there are a coup of things on the horizon that will create some headwinds. >> and we got an intraday high for the s&p, all-time, and we're closing higher, so that's a new all-time high. stay tuned with maria from los angeles for hour number two of the "closing bell." and it is 4:00 on wall street, 1:00 p.m. in los angeles. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody. welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo, coming to you today from l.a. and the global conference sponsored by the milken institute. the dow jones industrial average closing in the green today after being down better than 80 points earlier in the session. we had the buyers swoop in late in the day, take a look at how we're finishing the day on the street again once again. buy on the dip pen tattlmentali. the nasdaq up 21 points at 3328. and once
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