all right, you're watching today's edition of "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. >> and i'm kelly evans. these are your headlines around the world. >> markets end on a high with a possible more money from central banks when investors sell in may and go away. first clues may come from the fed today. >> equity markets across asia and europe are closed. workers taking to the streets and security in european capitals is stepped up in expectation of large antiausterity protests. >> and the official peer mark falls in april. and investors lining up in droves to get a piece of apple's

ibonds, making the debt sale one of the biggest in corporate history. all right, welcome to may 1st. pitch and a punch. >> pitch and a punch? >> pitch and a punch. >> what's that? >> the month -- >> is that the saying? >> school, children's thing. >> that was a lame punch, by the way. >> i'm not going to do it for real. and if you've read your paper yesterday, you read a wonderful article -- >> by one ross westgate. >> about the whole sell in may and -- >> what was your take for those of us who missed it? >> the stats suggest most of the time it pays, but actually, there are occasions when they get it wrong like last year. in fact, if you sold in may, you would have done okay, but you

should have come back in july. >> in the market, meaning not september. >> not september, yeah, yeah. >> fair point. >> we have had for the last three years, the thing is, with the s&p, we have seen the first-half highs in -- >> i know, i know. >> -- in april, yeah. >> there's been so much talk about whether there's some seasonal effect here. is it some sort of hangover from the financial crisis, et cetera, a lot of people doing -- in fact, this is one of my favorite topics because it's still an unanswered question, so that's why this year is so important. >> it's not just a day to sell stocks, but lots of markets are closed. >> exactly. and here's what's interesting, may day celebrations, celebrating workers, celebrating labor. these are live pictures i believe of greece? where, anyway, the point being that as people start to get on the streets, are they celebrating or protesting? is this a moment where they come together, actually, and you have what, 19 million, as we learned yesterday, unemployed across the eurozone? so, you know, how much -- it's ironic that it's a celebration of labor when, in fact, it's the lack thereof, it's the unemployed that are really the headline across much of the eurozone. so, people are watching to see

whether what looked like kind of celebratory gatherings have this sort of undertone or turn into something perhaps -- is violent too strong? >> exactly. as labor protesters are expected to take the streets in protest, markets across asia, they're all campaigning for better working conditions. here in europe, expected to focus on government austerity measures and high unemployment. it doesn't get much higher than the unemployment rate we have in spain, and that's where stefan joins us today, and those are the pictures you're looking at at the moment. stefan, what's going on today? >> reporter: the demonstrations, russ, will start in barcelona at 11:30 central european time this morning. the main one will be probably madrid, starting midday. trade unions believe that the demonstrations will be very successful this year as a reaction, of course, to the record unemployment rate that we had in spain at the end of the first quarter. unions are asking the government to change its economic policy to

drive the country out of recession. they are viewed that the labor reform that was implemented last year did not improve the situation but actually made the situation even worse in the labor market because it gave the companies more flexibility to get rid of people and made it cheaper, or so that's the reason why, according to trade union. spain has now a record unemployment rate. that's not the view from the spanish force, they claim the labor reform has prevented much more negative situation on the labor market and has contributed to save 680,000 jobs in spain over the last couple of months. now, "el paese" is reporting ahead of the demonstration today that the government is about to announce more austerity measures, 3 billion euros in total this year. that's part of the program submitted to the commission. in the 3 billion euros package, 1 billion would come from an additional reform of the labor market. >> all right, stefan.

thanks for that. got any thoughts or comments, e-mail us, worldwide@cnbc.com. also on the show, brent suffers its worst drop in 11 months in april. we'll look at the potential winners and losers from falling oil prices with hsbc's global economist joining us in a few minutes. and china's role as the world's factory could be ending as rising wages and aging population are causing some internationals to move back home. we'll talk about the phenomenon at about 11:30. and top marks when it comes to producing multimillionaires. find out what schools are making the grade. we'll look at the graduate rich list. coming up. as i didn't graduate, i don't really care. anyway. >> i love that. that's why they need to include the dropouts. you, zuckerberg. >> i'm right there with gates, zuckerberg as the dropouts. >> that's right. i think it is a gauge of success. we'll also get an insider's look inside the secret world of bankers from bernanke to jean-claude trichet.

neil berwin will join us. i'm so excited. neil's a great guy, so looking forward to that one. >> good. we just have to keep you level until we get there, right? >> yes. >> don't go early. china's economic recovery may not be on solid footing. that's the concern after the official manufacturing peer mark fell unexpectedly. it still expanded, 50.6 in april, and reuters were expecting a reading of 51%. one of the reasons for the drop was falling new orders, reflecting expectations from companies selling more negative. the new exporter sub index also shrunk, and that was contractually 48.6%. it was 50.9% in march. we're joined now by mata jar. how are you? >> hi. >> put this number in context with our expectations. >> definitely the china number has been disappointing. china data overall has been disappointing in q-1, looking at

gdp or pmi data. looking at the details, it's really the export side that's weakened dramatically for china. the domestic story is still intact, and over the coming months, we would expect that the domestic story continues to accelerate and that offsets some of the drag you're getting from the more negative external story. >> madhut at the same time, i thought it was extraordinary to look at the figures. exports at the lowest on record. if you were trying to look for signs, knowing as we do that the official china pmi maybe doesn't give us the whole story, does the australian piece of the story here point towards a much weaker china? >> i think overall there has been some weakness come through. i think it's largely related to the export side of the story. i'm not completely convinced that this is china slowing down very dramatically. as you know, total social financing, which is a very good measure of credit growth in china, has picked up dramatically in q-1, and that really should lead to a stronger

pickup in domestic growth. also, labor markets are very tight, wage growth is picking up, consumer demand should pick up. so the domestic story remains strong. i think yes, the global trade cycle is weakening, and that's coming through in the china numbers, australia numbers and also numbers across other parts of the world. >> and if that's the case, you know, you talk about perhaps the china story picking back up, but what's going to drive demand? if it's not an external story, i mean, do we ultimately kind of tie this back to the u.s., or what measures here if china can't cut rates? what can they do to spur the rebound that you're talking about? >> i think the two main points are to be made. first of all, china does have the ammunition to do both more on the fiscal side and the monetary policy side, so it has room to cut rates, but most likely, it's going to focus on fiscal stimulus, so more infrastructure spending, more building of roads, ports, railways. as i said, total social financing is already much higher, and all of it is largely investment related, investment driven. so, that's going to be the main

focus. you're also going to see easing g liquidated conditions through open market conditions to inject liquidity into the system, so you have room both on the monetary policy and the fiscal side to do more in china. so, primarily it's going to be domestic. >> so, stay there and we want to play europe as well. it's a message of growth over austerity taken to germany. at a joint press conference with chancellor angela merkel, he said growth highlighted the need for a change of course. >> translator: we think that europe has to commit itself to the part of austerity and budget consolidation, which we've done and we want to continue doing, but it's not just that. at the same time, europe needs to invest the same commitment into growth. >> angela merkel was quoted saying growth and solid finances could come hand in hand, adding germany would not be where it was without solid budget management. >> hmm. lerkel, should we try that one?

i'm telling you, he will be the next amemercozi. lisbon hopes to exit the terms of its bailout early next year, promising 2.8 billion euros. the country's finance minister promises further austerity beyond that point will focus on spending cuts and not tax increases. moody, meanwhile, downgrading slovenia's credit rating to junk and adding concern the small eurozone nation may be next in line for a bailout. they cited the weak banking sector, uncertain funding prospects and deteriorating public finances as reasons for the cut. and words of further downgrade could be on the way. so, just how much concern is this really causing? let's get back to madrut. let's start with cyprus and whether there's any sort of contagion concern here? i guess i'm struggling to ask the question because markets largely seem to be shrugging it off. >> yes, i think markets have taken cyprus to be a unique situation, and clearly, as you

can see from spain and italy, there's a lot of comfort at this point in time in the ecb's promise that they will go and activate omt, if required. more importantly, i think there has been a subtle shift in position across g-20 countries, but in particular in the eurozone towards this emphasis on austerity. a lot more time being given implicitly to countries, spain, portugal, all of these countries being given more time to meet their deficit targets. so, growth concerns are a bit lower now because people are not so worried that austerity's going to cripple growth. and i think this is a positive development because it gives countries some room to be able to implement the structural reforms that are required to put these countries back on the growth track. >> that being the case, though, it's still interesting. we're hearing from portugal. do you take this as just talk? how relevant is it that they're saying they're going to press ahead with austerity regardless of, or even beyond what's required of them? again, as you're saying, it comes at a time when people are saying just the shift from austerity to less austerity

itself is potentially a catalyst to get exposure to the eurozone here. >> no, i think there's a very important distinction to be made. one is that you know you have to improve your fiscal balances, maybe have a more credible medium strategy base because you cannot let your debt and deficit levels explode, but at the same time, the focus on short-term austerity is easing off. so, i think the focus now is more on having austerity over a more sustainable period of time, over a longer period of time to get your fiscal balances back in order, but at the same time, also focusing on growth and employment in the shorter term. >> so, on a long enough time scale, austerity equals zero? is that the potential point here? stay there. we want to recap, for example, the kind of performance not just across the eurozone, but in the u.s. as well. >> in the u.s., we've had the best start to s&p for the first four months of the year since, what -- what did we say, 19 -- yeah, 1998, best for the dow since 1999. this is where we finished in april, dow up 1.79%, s&p up

1.8%. another record high, nasdaq off 12 1/2-month highs up 1.88%. madrut, markets keep going up. how much of a disconnect do you see between equity prices and the u.s. economy which seems to be indicating it's going to go through a slightly softer spring? >> absolutely, and this is something we've seen develop over the last few years where q-1 is really strong, people are very optimistic and then q-2, q-3, you start seeing activity fade, especially in the u.s. this year, of course, is because of the sequestration impact. i think what happens when active desoftens is that people's expectations of more monetary accommodation come through, and that's why the financial markets go up although the real economy is still doing really badly, and i think that's again going to happen now. you know, people are expecting the bank of japan has done more, ecb might be cutting rates tomorrow. you're going to have more monetary stimulus coming through from central banks and that supports the prices. >> if you thought the weakness this time, the difference is

that we think it's because of sequestration, that's a different -- it doesn't make you so nervous as it has over the last two years, which was literally the consumer just wasn't going to do anything. i mean, is there a difference? >> i don't think there's a difference. i think the underlying point is that the actual rate of growth is much weaker than what we expect the u.s. to grow at. you know, people expect that the u.s. will start growing again at 3.5%, 4%, we'll go back to the pre-crisis strength, but we cannot go back to the pre-crisis strength. this is the new normal as we know it. this is the softer rate of growth is the new normal, so, whether it's the impact of the tsunami and the impact of the sequestration, basically, growth is much weaker. these are just one of the factors, but the underlying story is one of weaker growth. you have deleveraging in the u.s., you've got aging populations across a wide variety of countries. the potential growth rate has actually fallen. >> all right. thanks for that.

stay there. >> let's recap some of the assets classes, starting with the obvious one this month, which has been the nikkei in japan. starting on what, a 40% rally, anyway, going back to last fall, we continue to see strong gains this month, looking in the range of, what is that, 11%, almost 12%. that's in april alone. it's that figure right there that we're focusing on, so don't be distracted by what happened yesterday. here's what happened with the ftse, which also -- >> up nearly 50% since last year -- >> with the naikkei. if we can take it back to november? we'll do a chart. >> yeah. not necessarily 50% for the ftse 100, but it's done all right, adding about 0.33%. the british pound sterling has been one of the strong asset classes as well this month, so, all of this in focus ahead of the uk pmi data we're about to get. the question becomes how much momentum does the economy have in the industrial sector, too. here's what's happening with its rival, the dax, proxy for the eurozone, at least. look at the performance this month. it is in the range of about

1.5%, so, not bad and not much trailing u.s. markets, despite what you might describe as a drastically different outlook in terms of economic performance. some would argue maybe that's telling us the outlook isn't that drastically different. anyway, the ftse mib in italy doing all right. what is that 9.3%? yeah, that's not bad, is it, for the italian bors. that's what happens when you have a massive sellout and the prospect of the government holding together even if we don't necessarily have it fully formed yet. the ibex in spain consistent again with what we've seen across certainly the sovereign debt picture, which has been a strong compression in spreads, trailing italy but still up in the range of better than 6%. so, if you had gotten exposure to some of the struggling markets a month ago this time, you'd be doing all right. ross? yeah, thanks for that. because of the may day holiday, most of the markets in europe are indeed closed. ftse 100 today up 32 points. yesterday we slipped 27 points,

disappointing day with u.s. business activity. the ftse 250 lost 52 points. some of the miners doing fairly well, a couple banks as well. and barclays all a little bit firmer at the moment. also had numbers today out of argueos, delivering its first year of like-for-like sales growth for five years, propping up sales retail levels at home retail group. a lot of critics have long argued that catalog favorite is an irrelevance. also they end the home base of course as well. besides the ftse, other markets trailing today include the aex in amsterdam. that's down 2 points. the omx in sweden is pretty flat as the omx-c 20 is up slightly. looking at gilts. yields 1.86%. manufactured pmis are coming out in ten minutes exactly, so we'll take a look at that.

i don't know why we're showing this with the market actually trailing. showing you currency markets. sterling/dollar. 1.55 hr 1.5538. we've seen weakness in the dollar, but the sterling and yen have been good performers in the last weeks or so. dollar/yen right now. and that's the way we stand in europe. not many markets in asia open either, but sichulee sixan is jg us. >> most forces are closed for labor day celebrations. japan and australia were opened for business, ending mostly in the red today. in japan, earnings news still driving the markets with weakness coming from the airlines and the worst than expected annual numbers. fuji film bucked the downtrend,

rallying over 6% after it forecasted a 23% jump in operating profit on year. in australia, the stock market and the aussie dollar didn't react much to that weaker than expected china pmi data, but softer metals and oil prices overnight dragged the commodity plays lower. as you can see, the major miners and oil majors shed some 1% to 2% today. back to you. >> all right, sixuan, thanks very much indeed for that. that is the latest on the asian markets that are open. it's a quiet day around the globe, kelly. >> that's right, ross. perfect day to head to the website on cnbc.com. you can read about how the yield on italy's ten-year bonds may have dripped below 4%, but some say that prime minister enrico letto's policy is on course to clash with angela merkel's. you can get more on what that means on the website. and london's department stores suffers as the g-10 phone by blackberry was its fastest selling technology product ever, selling out in two hours.

what does it mean for blackberry? you can catch more on that story on cnbc.com. well, we were debating about whether that was going to happen when we were in davos. beyonce's taking the uk by storm this week as part of her world tour. find out how online ticket sellers are reaping the rewards. and we'll speak to vi gogo. see you in a few minutes. ♪ roomba, roomba ♪ roomba, roomba ♪ roomba, roomba ♪ roomba, roomba ♪ got a robot vacuum ♪ cleaning up my life

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it's may day, and the celebrations are in full force around the world. we were showing you pictures from greece earlier, but there are also big crowds gathering in the capital of moscow, as you can see. again, may day the traditional day to celebrate labor around the world, but again, especially in the eurozone, where we've been celebrating kind of -- or i should say, denoting the lack thereof. so interesting to see what the tone will be like across russia, but in moscow, a decent crowd, i'd say, showing. i wish i could read russian so i could tell you what the signs they're carrying say. ross, wouldn't you be here with your knowledge of russian? >> no idea. >> one of our viewers will tell us. >> yeah. >> we'll crowd-source it. >> yeah. it's -- i'll talk about may day later. >> are you declaring -- >> in the uk context.

in terms margaret thatcher and her views on the may day holiday. >> teasing yourself. >> well, yeah. she's viewed as sort of a communist holiday, which is why britain doesn't celebrate it today. >> and why the commonwealth countries are basically all still open. >> they're still open, yeah. >> interesting. her legacy lives on. fighting for a pay rise in these uncertain times is not an easy task. we want to know how far you'd go to increase your salary today because workers in one american firm are taking the extreme step of getting inked. rapid realty is offering employees a 15% pay boost if they agree to get inked with their company logo. so far, apparently, almost four dozen people are said to have taken the plunge. >> when you say inked, you mean take the tattoo, right. >> did you say ta-too? it's a tattoo. >> a ta-too. >> it's not a ta-too! >> tattoo. tattoo. >> would you get a cnbc tattoo,

if it meant a 15% pay hike? >> no. >> you wouldn't? >> no. >> what would it take? >> to what? >> to get a tattoo of cnbc? >> i don't want any. >> what if they doubled, tripled your pay? >> i don't want any tattoos. >> none? your body is a temple. >> yes. well, it's a temple away from ink. >> would you get a tattoo for more pay? we seriously want to know. e-mail us your thoughts, worldwide@cnbc.com. that's a shot of one of the tattoos. you can also tweet us @cnbcwex or reach us directly. keep it clean. >> where would you get yours? >> you know, let's just end the conversation there. would i get a tattoo in exchange for a pay increase? i'm with you on this one, no way, jose. >> no, but is your body going to be a temple to tattoos? >> no. i would get a hannah tattoo for

something permanent. see, what if people do it and it turns out to be temporary, like in "the runaway bride"? >> anyway, don't know where that came from. the german final. brucia dortmund staved off an attempted comeback from spanish giants real madrid in the second of the semifinal. despite real madrid winning on the night, dortmund advanced thanks to their 4-1 home victory last week and will face german side bayern munich, who carry a 4-0 fixture into their game with barcelona tonight. and it's one of the things retail websites can cash in heavily. uk company viagogo says it's enjoying a big month with football legs coinciding with the uk leg of beyonce's tour. >> one leg or two? >> she's got two of them. >> got an american leg and a british leg. >> of this tour and probably several more. steve bruce is head of business at viagogo in europe joins us

now. good morning. >> good morning. >> you've been very patient. >> no problem. >> we wanted to ask about this company. i'm familiar with stubhub being the american company. viagogo founded by the same person and one of europe's largest companies. >> it's one of the largest ticket marketplaces. we have 30 countries, tickets available for any event prablgtically anywhere in the world, founded by the same person on the premise that there needs to be security between a transaction between a seller of a ticket and a buyer of a ticket. >> because what this does is not necessarily act as a way for you to buy tickets directly from the events. it's an -- it's the ebay of tickets, basically. it's people buying and selling and reselling. >> if you think about it i'm sure your viewers are familiar with the situation. they want to go to an event. they probably aren't going to get up at 6:00 a.m. or 7:00 a.m. six months in advance of the on-sale, have four computers, three phones desperately trying to get tickets. >> because that's what it takes. >> that's what you have to do to get tickets. >> and sometimes you still miss out. so, people these days wants the convenience. they want to be able to buy the

tickets when they want to buy them with a guarantee, and that's what we provide for any event anywhere in the world. >> do they get resold at the normal face value? >> sometimes much more. >> so, the first point to remember is that we have tickets for everything everywhere in the world. the second thing is that sellers set prices and tickets sell face value or below. rolling stones right now in hyde park, you can get tickets for 150 pounds, or beyonce, as we saw, two legs, one leg, tickets at 77 pounds available on viagogo. >> hold that thought for a second because we have breaking data out of the uk, just indicating what's happening with manufacturing in april. and it was a contraction, although just by the narrowest of margins. >> slightly. >> as reuters are pointing out, it looks as though the headline index 49.8%. >> uply revised 48.6% in march, putting the sector in the whisk of the 50 line that separates growth from contraction. i think the point here is that we had expected a weaker reading of 48.5%. so, in that sense, the manufacturing pmi is better than

expected. >> and the reaction in the sterling with that up a 2 1/2-month high. people were worried it might be the underperformance of the survey leading to that. sterling is the best performing sectors this month, but now you can see the reaction, the relief there. >> more signs of stabilization in april. madhur's been waiting for this number to come out. there you go, a better-than-expected number. expectations was 48.5%. where's that leave us with the mpc next week? >> i think we've been saying for a while that the mpc's unlikely to do anything, and that's what we continue to expect. this number would definitely support that, along with the gdp release, which was just avoided, helped avoid a triple dip. definitely, the bank of england would want to do more, but maybe not at next week's meeting. i think this improvement really is against the grain of what's happening in general across pmis, but that's really a

reflection of how much it had fallen the previous few months, and this is more of a stabilization that we are seeing in the uk pmi rather than any real recovery, but clearly reduces the risk of the bank of england doing anything next week. >> okay. madhur, thanks for that. that chimes with paul tucker, the deputy governor saying financial stability now, rather than deputy governor, but saying there is now signs that the economy is turning the corner. >> yeah, it would have looked pretty silly if he said that and then the data came out weak. >> yes. >> so, certainly the message is consistent. actually, turning back to steve to talk about viagogo. ticket sales to some extent are a reflection of demand. how has the european crisis, you know, britain's economy affected business? >> our business is going very, very well. so, we're now in 30 countries. we're the world's largest ticket marketplace. we have tickets for practically every event anywhere in the world. so, our business is going very, very well. >> but do you see the pricing changing? for instance, are ticket resale prices coming down in some of

the harder hit countries? >> what you do see is that when the event approaches, ticket prices will fall because sellers want to sell their tickets. so, for example, it's actually a very good idea to check the website in the few weeks before an event because you can often pick up some real bargains. >> so, there's not a particular impact from any one -- it's not southern europe, it's not -- you know what i mean? it tends to be consistent. >> yes, exactly. the one consistent trend is that prices will fall as an event gets closer, for the most part. obviously, there are exceptions, such as the potential all-german champions league final between dortmund and bayern munich. those prices will probably remain very flat because they're very flat. >> in spain. >> yeah, exactly. in spain, there may be people who want to resell any tickets they might have because obviously, they can't go, but the demand from germany that we're seeing for that event is only increasing. >> just wonder, you have official partnerships with football clubs, roland garros, the world finals. when you have those partnerships, do they consist of you reselling tickets for those events that they are capped at and you say the seller sets the

price, but they don't want tickets sold above face value, do they? >> we have partnerships with over 100 major sports, manchester city, chelsea, madonna for example. they work with us because they want to give their fans a safe and secure way to buy tickets. basically what do consumers want? they want to buy the ticket they want, choose where they sit and be guaranteed of getting that ticket. >> and they don't care if the fans pay over the face value? >> sometimes they pay under. >> it's just like financial markets. you're offering liquidity in the secondary market to help spur demand in the primary market. >> of course, and consumers come to the place with the biggest selection, which is us. >> single biggest demand for tickets that you sell, what is it? >> i think currently you're talking about the champions league final. wimbledon is always a big demand for that spike. beyonce is very, very popular, and obviously, the rolling stones. those guys just never give up. >> glad wimbledon's up there. >> absolutely. if you want a ticket for the men's final, we're the place to come. >> steve bruce, thank you. head of business development for

viagogo. viagogo. i keep saying it wrong. thank you, sir. pronunciations. what? >> don't have the rights anymore. >> oh, really? oh, that's right, because actually, last year i was all excited to go and it's an espn event now not an nbc event. we'll be talking about comcast later in the show. as we take a break, here's a shot of athens, greece, where people are gathering to commemorate that word may day. we'll focus on the labor and reshoring trend when we come back. stay with us on "worldwide exchange."

these are the headlines from around the globe. u.s. markets end april on a high with the prospect of more easy money from central banks. will investors decide to sell in may and go away or not? might get some clues from the fed today. equity markets across asia and europe largely closed for may day. workers using it to take to the streets. security in european capitals is stepped up amid expectations, as you can see, increased there of large antiausterity protests. more evidence of a china recovery with sluggish growth from mainland factories. official pmi unexpectedly falls in april. and investors lining up in droves to get a piece of apple's ibonds.

it's made the company's debt sale one of the largest in corporate history. all right, we have better manufacturing pmi out of the uk, boosting the pound once again against the dollar. as far as the dollar is concerned, this is what it's done. dollar/yen in april. 3.4 -- i'm trying to work that out, 3.4%. that's the monthly figure. >> which is interesting, because it's not huge. i mean, you'd almost expect -- we're just colored by the experience since november, where we know it's been double-digits. so, but if you annualize that, 3.4% in one month? you're talking about a 36% increase. >> yeah, on a currency. as we tick it up just shy of 100, of course, on dollar/yen. let's show you where we are with gold after it falls down to -- i can't remember where we got to in the end, but it was below 1,300, right? >> definitely below 1,400. >> down 7.7%. it was down more than that, of

course, during the month. oil. >> oil that's been a big story as well, and this morning actually struggling around that triple-digit market. here's a look at nymex first, down about $93 a barrel, but we were below $90 there, losing about 4% on the month. again, a big boom for the consumer nations of the world. we'll talk about that in one second. as oil prices trend lower, u.s. crude exports have actually been growing at the fastest pace in over a decade. the shale revolution looking set to shake up the world energy market. brent prices also slipping further. who are the potential winners and losers from the long-term decline that we may be seeing here in oil prices? hsbc says emerging markets are the most vulnerable to volatility, but it could be a boom for the consumer nations of the world. m madhur jha, one of the authors of that report, is with us. talk about the boom for countries like the u.s., and frankly, the uk. who stands most to benefit if we continue to see a decline in oil prices here? >> okay, thank you. i think there are two points to be made. first of all, an oil price decline has a lower impact on

growth and inflation than an oil price rise. that might be because people don't always pass on the benefit to the final consumer for oil priceline, so prices have to fall a lot more to have an impact on the economy. but having said that, if you look at the numbers, and you can look at the sensitivity, and we have oil vulnerability index that we've constructed in the report, it's really the emerging market big consumers which will benefit the most, whether it's china, india, turkey, south africa. these are the countries that benefit the most because they have strong demand but really don't have any supply. in the developed world, countries like the u.s. and even parts of the eurozone, especially italy and spain that benefit a lot from having lower oil prices. and the losers, of course, are again emerging market countries, primarily like saudi arabia, russia, united arab emirates. so, the net impact, because the biggest losers and the biggest winners are both from the emerging market space, should

still, however, be positive for global and emerging market growth. >> i wonder, actually, if it wouldn't be a good idea to start delineating the groups of emerging nations that stand to benefit versus those who don't, you know, and sort of invest according to those lines. >> absolutely. >> so, if you wanted to pick the ones you mentioned off bat, the trouble is, is now really the best time to invest in the likes of a china, story, obviously, and india as well? these nations, unfortunately, have a lot of other issues with regard to developing their consumer base where they may not fully capture the benefit of lower oil prices. >> i would still say that these countries have the best domestic stories going. i mean, if you compare globally, i mean, compared to a country like spain, which is 55% youth unemployment, the domestic demand story is very unlikely to pick up, even though you do get some benefit from oil. but in the emerging markets, even in china and the u.s., we are seeing some structural issues, but still, the labor markets are very tight, wage growth is very high, and you have to remember, in emerging markets, the consumer basket is dominated by food and fuel,

unlike in the western world, which is more advanced. so, when prices fall, these countries do benefit a lot more because the consumer baskets are affected more and their real wages and real spending capacity goes up. so, still, i would say, although you might have doubts about the emerging market story in the short term, i still think over the next few quarters, you will see demand will pick up and the slowdown or this fall in oil prices will be quite supportive of growth in these countries. >> and it better be because it's going to be some of the other countries you mentioned. madhur jha, global economist at hsbc, thank you for your time. >> thank you very much. >> we mentioned china markets are closed for the third straight session for labor day celebrations, but as li sixuan tells us, they used to be closed longer, for around a week. is that right? >> yes, you're right, ross. just so you know, labor day is actually just a one-day statutory holiday in china, but the chinese people worked seven days last week, including the

weekend, so they could enjoy a three-day holiday this monday to wednesday. before 2009, it used to be just a seven-day holiday, which people called the labor day golden week. not only is the labor day holiday squeezed, so is the country's labor market. official data showed the pool of working-age people shrink by 3.5 million million, marking its first decline in decades. the china research foundation also expects china's labor force to decrease by 29 million over the current decade. with an aging population, many scholars are calling for a reform to the country's one-child policy. besides that, wages are undermining their competitiveness as the world's factory. according to the development bank, the adjustment wages have more than tripled in the decade and wage costs also increased significantly since the introduction of a new labor law back in 2008. meanwhile, in parts of

greater china, wages that have been higher already continue to climb. in hong kong, the minimum wage is being hiked from 28 to 30 hong kong dollars per hour effective today. without cost advantages, china's manufacturing sector is in need of reform in terms of technology innovation and talent development. and ross, many global manufacturers are relocating their factories to cheaper places than southeast asia and mexico or back to big markets in the u.s. and europe. back to you. >> yeah. thanks for that. we'll pick up on that say. cost pressures making overseas production less attractive for multinationals. now several firms in britain are reportedly looking to boost domestic manufacturing. according to a new study by the rsa, making it home owning abroad, britain could see up to 200,000 jobs return home over the next decade. joining us on the phone is one of the authors of that report, a

public policy lecturer at cambridge, dr. finbarr livesey. what are the trends driving this and are they global trends? >> they are global trends. there is a coming together of rising oil price in the longer term, not in the short-term as you've just been discussing, and there are new production technologies which allow you to make lower volumes but still be economically effective. and there is a rising likelihood of emissions regulation. and all of these trends coming together, rising commodity prices, have completely changed the economic landscape already and will continue to do so over the next decade. >> is there also any need from a strategic sense to be closer to where the customer is? >> there's been a desire. there's a wish to be close to the customer, speed to market, customization. you can respond much, much faster. there is a strategic need as well with fragmenting patterns of demand. the actual demand profiles in india and china are very different from those in the united states and uk, and we're seeing companies respond to that

by trying to locate closer. the key message in the report, though, is that this is going to be not an option anymore, this is going to be a necessity for a lot of sectors, and that will lead in sectors like electrical products, some motor production cars, et cetera, to lower trade. you're going to see trade decline, but you're going to see ownership rise, and that's a big change for companies. >> it's interesting you say trade will decline, because are the supply chains -- because you know, we've now got a global supply chain and highly specialized manufacturers in one part of the world will be making components. how much will that change? >> yeah, and so you're going to see potentially the regionalization of the supply chain, if not localization for these industries, and you're going to also potentially see fewer steps in the production process, because this is one of those things that people who aren't as close to factories as others don't see. you know, 11, 12, 14, 20

different subassemblies being brought in different places being brought together and shipped again. that's going to be allowed to fall, so we make fewer bits and we put them together closer to the consumer. >> yeah, and so, the other thing here is what happens with sort of compensations as well in terms of workers and hourly compensations? >> yeah, the worker story's a difficult one, because what we're also seeing, a big trend very much reported in the united states at the moment, we're getting less and less labor in production. essentially, we're doing more automation and we're having higher labor productivity, so we're going to have fewer workers per unit volume produced. and so, what you're probably going to see, actually, is compensation in manufacturing remaining high, because they're going to be skilled jobs, they're going to be fewer skilled jobs per factory, though. and this is a really difficult thing for us to manage. how do we ensure that we get the growth that we want, but also that we get employment growth at the same time. >> all right, so we could see e

boost in domestic manufacturing, but it may not boost employment as much as we think. >> exactly. >> good to see you. thank you for joining us. it's a fascinating subject. dr. finbarr livesey from the world society from rsa. still on topic of labor, the eu is looking at taking trade action aimed at improving safety and work conditions in bangladesh, following the collapsed building tragedy in the country which has killed more than 390 people. many of the victims were garment workers that made clothing for retailers in europe and canada. the eu's foreign policy and trade chiefs say they could use their trade system to take action. it gives bangladeshi goods easier access to eu markets. sharp sales have taken a dive following news of a projected $5 billion loss for the company. we have the story live from tokyo. a big hit related to apple. hi, nizomu.

>> hi, kelly. sharp sales fell 5% on reports that the company will post a bigger than forecast loss for the year that ended march. japan's leading maker of liquid crystal displays looks to have suffered a consolidated net loss of about $5 billion in full year 2012, wider than the $4.1 billion deficit the firm projected last november. sharp is scheduled to announce its earnings on the 14th. sources at the company say one reason behind the loss is a sales slowdown at apple. a major buyer of sharp's smaller lcd panels. low out put at its lcd factories have forced it to write off excess capacity. meanwhile, around 40 sony executives have decided not to take their performance-based bonuses for fiscal 2012. the annual salaries of these officers are expected to drop by 30% to 50%. the president made the proposal for the largest executive bonus cuts since the firm's foundation

in 1946 after he discovered they would be unable to turn around the electronics business by march 2013, as promised. back to you, kelly. >> okay, nozomu, thanks so much for that. looking out at another tech giant, marissa miayer cashing i on her short time as ceo. she received the compensation that includes $455,000 in salary, $15 million in stock as a one-time retention aword and $14 million to partly make up for money she made to leave google. unless you're marissa mayer, fighting for a pay rise in these uncertain times isn't easy. so, how far would you go to increase your salary? workers in one american firm are taking a pretty extreme step of getting a -- >> tattoo. >> tattoo. rapid realty offering employees a 15% pay boost if they agree to get inked with their company logo. so, we've been asking, would you get a tattoo of your company's logo for a pay rise?

this tweet says it all depends importantly on where, and most importantly, how big a pay rise for the tattoo. and he would also consider getting one but only -- >> if they remove it if he gets fired. >> only if they pay to remove it if he gets -- got it, got it. is it really about the cost, though? removal is painful, so i've heard. >> you've let that out of the bag. what was it? where was this tattoo? >> tattoo. >> where was it? >> there are some stories which are not for air. we want to keep hearing from you, though. i'll tell you about it during the next commercial break. e-mail us, worldwide@cnbc.com or tweet @cnbcwex or e-mail us directly. >> we'll be tweeting about kelly's tattoo. which companies produce the biggest millionaires? we'll discuss the alumni rich list.

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a rich list of universities has revealed where students can go to most likely become mul multimillionaires. the list measures the number of ultra high net worth individuals

who have graduated from the universities. u.s. colleges dominate the top 15 places with mark zuckerberg's old stomping ground, harvard, unsurprisingly ranking first on a global scale. >> no thanks to him, though. he didn't even graduate. >> he didn't graduate, no. oxford and cambridge topped the uk list but are ranked 16th and 19th globally. nicholas rambus is ceo of the wealth ex and the survey as well. thanks for joining us. actually, kelly makes a good point, we presume you're not including dropouts, right? >> that's correct. no, we did not include for dropouts in this list. there's a lot more of those. >> okay. so, look, what's the key takeaway? >> you know, the interesting story in that, the u.s., it's all about harvard and harvard, right? harvard has the largest number of multimillionaires and the greatest aggregate net worth. looking at the uk by comparison, oxford has the greatest number, but cambridge has the wealthiest individuals. so, if you look globally and say where do i make the most money

from, in fact, in the u.s., it's m.i.t. the average net worth of the mul multimillionaires they've minted is 257 million and cambridge takes that by a hair with $258 million average multimillionaire. >> how are you measuring this and how important is this to the outcome? if you look at the u.s. list, a lot of the programs are major business schools where people are to some extent bringing wealth with them as much as they are kind of coming through the process and then creating their millio millions. >> the interesting thing is you'll see that a lot of the money there is self-made. they might have started with maybe a million or two, but once they've gotten into either the business school program or university, they're making their money on top. interestingly enough, looking perhaps in the new growth areas like india, it was interesting to see the university of mumbai also made it to the top 20 list, but interestingly, at that university, it's those individuals who are actually the most successful at taking big, inherited dollars and turning those into bigger fortunes on the way out. >> wow.

>> but it's probably easier to make money when you've started off with a bit of money in a pot, right? i mean, what they're doing is they're going to these universities to find out how to do that. >> or to meet the right people to do that. >> well, i think you said it, meeting the right people is definitely part of the equation. if you look at the individuals a networks they build at the university and the names and where they've been, you'll find they end up at one of the top 20 universities for wealth generation. >> any major surprises, mycholas? >> you know, i think one of those surprises is gender divide, right? so, where the women go who have been most successful in adding net worth. in the uk, it's kings college. in the u.s., it's northwestern. and that's at about 15% to 20% between those two of the overall ultra high net worth alumni population. that's a pretty big difference compared to the 10% or less at the majority of the other universities. >> and northwestern, great women's lacrosse program, maybe not a coincidence. thank you so much, ceo of

wealthex. >> thank you. >> great lacrosse players, yeah. >> i'm telling you, they are one of the most successful women's lacrosse programs of all time, coming out of nowhere, kind of consistent with the wealth list. briefly, keeping an eye on students not just in the classroom but outside as well. new technology called core smart -- this is scary -- tracks how much time people spend reading their textbooks and how much of the material they actually get through. it's being tested at universities this spring. >> nightmare for people like me, for most people as well who aren't putting -- >> i was a crammer guy. i was a crammer guy. that would be horrendous. >> that must be good for tv, somehow. still to come, we'll count down to the fed, we'll look at the markets and still plenty more on "worldwide exchange." >> stay with us. we went out and asked people a simple question: how old is the oldest person you've known? we gave people a sticker and had them show us. we learned a lot of us have known someone who's lived well into their 90s. and that's a great thing. but even though we're living longer,

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm kelly evans. >> and i'm ross westgate. a recap of the headlines from around the world. >> u.s. markets end april on a high. so, with the prospect of more easy money from central banks around the world, will investors sell in may and go away? the first clues will come from the fed. equity markets across asia and europe closed for the may day holiday, workers taking to the streets, security in the european capital stepped up amid expectations of big antiausterity protests. more evidence of a slowdown in china's recovery. falling orders spell sluggish growth for mainland factories. official pmi unexpectedly falls in april. and investors line up to get

a piece of apple's ibonds, making their debt sale one of the largest in corporate history. all right. if you've just joined us, welcome to the start of your global trading day, particularly stateside. talking about the states, keeps going. >> good month for index, as we look at nominal highs for the s&p, the dow also there. the nasdaq still has a little ways to go. >> it was the best first four months of the year for the s&p since i think 1998. and for the dow, since 1999, if my stats are right. but i think that's what we've got. and there we get monthly performances up 1.8%, the nasdaq near 12-month highs and the s&p pretty much on its record highs as well, closing out as new highs. >> interesting to compare that to the performances elsewhere around the globe. if we can take a look at asia markets, for example, the april

performance shows a lot of the macro story. look what the nikkei is doing. the japanese index continues to march higher, while in china, underperformance remains the theme there. down 2.6%. can't really blame the chinese either for investing in property instead of the stock market when this trend continues. >> yeah, and investing in property abroad as well. and european markets? there we go. you want to run through that? >> sure. starting with the xetra dax, germany's market up 1.5. interesting that france has been an out-performer, but it's consistent with the theme we're seeing, italy and spain up in the range of 6% to 9%, 6% for spain, about 9% for italy, and that's again partly given the sell-off heading into that month. here's a look at the ftse mib in particular, 9.3%. the rally really took off on the back of the changeover, the re-election of georgiorgio napolitano as president and the announcement of letto as prime minister. can the gains continue? let's look at markets today. ross? >> well, the point is there's not actually a lot happening in

the global markets because of the may day holiday. a number open in europe, and of that, the ftse is the main one, up around 29 points today. it was down 27, 28 points yesterday as we basically wiped out yesterday's gains first thing this morning. number of stocks obviously doing fairly well, and that's helping home retail group as well, which also is home-based, too. the good thing about the uk was the manufacturing pmi just a short while ago came in much better than expected, now just a whisker in contraction territory, 49.8%. expectations were for that physical to come out at 48.5%. so, that is also suggesting that perhaps there is a real turn in the economy, as paul tucker has suggested as well, governor of the financial stability unit of the bank of england, deputy governor as well, there. so, good news for the uk today. it's boosted sterling. these are now the markets open. the aex in amsterdam down 0.07%. we're flat in the omx in sweden

and denmark is slightly up. looking at sterling, we're firmer, 1.5574, done pretty well over the last few months, weeks as well. now it is less likely of further mpc action next week when they meet, as sometimes there's a split, kelly, between the ecb and the mpc meeting days, and this month is the case in point. >> exactly, and we're going to focus on the federal reserve meeting as well happening in the u.s. today. in fact, here's what's on the agenda. we get the adp employment report at 8:15 eastern, looking for a gain of about $160,000 in private sector payrolls. and then it's the ism manufacturing index. march construction spending also released at the same time, and our parent company, comcast, will report results before the open. >> is that who owns nbc? >> yes, yes. happy to report. >> okay. >> mastercard, we'll also hear from them, merck, time warner and viacom. we'll report on that.

after the close, facebook, visa, cbs and yelp. we also have automakers turning in their april u.s. sales today. pace of sales expected to top 15 million for a fifth straight month, volume picking up with the spring selling season. but as i said, the big event, federal reserve wrapping up its two-day policy meeting with their decision due at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. the central bank is not expected to make any major policy changing, maintaining the current program. in a statement, the fed is expected to note job growth remains modest and it will stick with the low-rate pledge for the time being to help reduce unemployment. steven englander is global head of g-10 fx strategy at citi. steven, great to see you. i wonder what you make of the fact that the dollar index is at about a two-month low this morning, even though people bullish on the u.s. are saying the strong dollar story may be more of the theme going forward. >> yeah, good morning, kelly. it's something that surprised us a bit, because what you're seeing is at the same time as the dollar's weakening, but the

data coming out of europe are very weak. the china data that you referred to overnight were on the weak side. australian data were similarly weak. it's unusual to find such a -- so much selling of the dollar in an episode when global growth seems to be slowing down, in some cases slowing down pretty dramatically. you know, but that's the way the markets have been trading. and obviously, what they've been looking at is the extent to which central banks, the fed, the boj together, they're putting about $2 trillion this year into their, you know, into reserves. and that's, you know, that's a major liquidity injection that seems to be supporting risk indiscriminately. >> yeah, i was going to say, as you say, it's a surprise that the dollar weakening a ining inh slowdown, but commodities -- but equities are up, steven, but the flip side is commodities haven't done very well either.

>> well, you're right, ross. and again, it's puzzled us, because i would have expected the dollar to perform better in this episode, but i think what investors are saying, at least for the moment, is that they'll take yield wherever they can get it, that they're not going to worry too much about the growth picture because there's, you know, behind every bad turn that the economy takes there's a central bank that's going to inject even more liquidity into the global economy. so, the fed put has extended to other central banks. and you know, literally, they just do not seem to be that worried about the downside risk to growth here. >> what's interesting, steven, is previous episodes of liquidity, of course, commodities got a boost. andepisode, they're not. how much of a difference is that and what does that mean? >> well, again, you know, investors seem to be looking not -- well, certainly, at equities. and you know, you look at what

they're doing in europe, for example, whereas a month or two ago, they would look at the higher yields and the periphery is reflecting risk premium. now they're looking at italy and spain and saying, wow, there's a real return here, there's a real incentive to buy these assets. so, the money is going into equities. it does seem to be going into subprime debt again, and we are seeing, you know, buying of peripheral debt, anything that has a coupon is being bought. >> apple did quite well issuing a coupon. we'll talk about that as well. steven, stay there. we'll come back to you. meanwhile, we were just talking about commodities. one of the reasons is because we're unsure about the strength of the china economy. another concern today after official manufacturing pmi fell unexpectedly to 50.6% in april and as polled by reuters, we're expecting a reading of 51%. a key reason for the drop was falling new orders, reflecting

negative expectations from companies. the new export order sub index also shrunk to 48.6% from 50.9 in march. here's a reminder of what's on the agenda in asia. we get a first glimpse into the bank of japan decision-making wi with. and china's final pmi reading after last week's sharp drop for april. and on the corporate front, handset maker htc expected to post earnings after being hit with product delays. we'll also get singapore bank's uob and dbs and hear from the ceo on the program tomorrow. that's a good one. and here's a look at the top corporate headlines. it may not be a new iphone, but investors still lining up for apple's latest product launch. it was a six-part deal offering ranging maturity in fixed and floating rate debt. the amount of orders reached 52 billion, making it by some accounts the largest

nonfinancial corporate bond sale in history. apple is selling debt for the first time since the 1990s, intended to help return $100 billion in cash to shareholders. it's effectively financial engineering. this company has a massive cash pile, most of it, though, stuck overseas -- >> it was so cheap for them, right? >> why wouldn't you at this point? and why do you want to fight this market when companies can borrow so cheaply to then do buybacks, boost their share price? >> and look, it comes back to steven's point about the search for yield, right? there is apple with all that cash. >> right. >> issuing this debt. i mean, there's no -- there's no worry, is there? if you're buying a three-year -- >> no, but i love the 30-year, which is do you want to buy into any technology company on a 30-year basis? although i think they did just celebrate their 30-year, apple. maybe it was a 25. anyway, it's a good point. apple priced the three-year bond at just about 0.5%, the ten-year at 2.4%. so, in the 30-year, as we were

just discussing, 3.88%. that's comparable with what a aaa company could command. i don't think there's any argument that apple's a aaa company. the company, as we said, has $145 billion in cash, but most of it's parked overseas, and -- >> it's interesting. apple ten-year at 2.4% or italian ten-year at sub 4? >> right. which is the better long-term prospect? an important point here as well about the structure of this is that it helps the company avoid a major tax bill. so, tax arbitrage, financial engineering, all of the greatest things about american finance wrapped up into one. >> that's global financial engineering. still to come, labor unions are holding some protests in europe today. we'll focus on the debate over austerity when we come back. [ female announcer ] what if the next big thing, isn't a thing at all? it's lots of things. all waking up. connecting to the global phenomenon we call the internet of everything. ♪ it's going to be amazing.

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security's been set up in european capitals as tens of thousands of labor activists prepare to take the streets for may day. marches have already taken place across asia. thousands have been asking for better working conditions. here in europe, demonstrations are expected to focus on government austerity measures and high unemployment. there's certainly a focus in spain. it's got one of the worst, as we know, unemployment rates in europe. and stefan is in madrid. hi, stefan. >> hi, ross. trade unions are calling for another economic policy for

spain in order to drive the country out of recession. they claim that the labor reform that was implemented last year did not improve the situation, it actually got worse with the record unemployment rate that we had at the end of the first quarter, 27.2%. the government claims that the reform was necessary, and actually, that this reform avoided a much worse situation in the labor market. according to a statement from the labor ministry, the reforms saved 680,000 jobs. ahead of the demonstration today, ross, the spanish newspaper "el pais" is reporting that more austerity has been prepared by the spanish government in the report sent to the european commission. the government is planning 3 billion euros in additional growth cost savings. 1 billion would come from another labor reform, another 1 billion coming from cutbacks in social subsidies and some tax increase that were implemented last year would be maintained for this year. that, of course, is not

confirmed yet, but of course, on the may day, on the day of protests today, certainly it won't help to ease social anger. so, the first protest in madrid will start at lunchtime, but it's not lunchtime here. 12:00, midday. in less than one hour. the main demonstration will be here, but some important ones also will take place probably in barcelona and also in the south of spain. here in madrid, there is plenty of security at the stock exchange. there is no trading today as security has been stepped up, the shutters closed, there are also barricades in the building just in case the demonstrators would come into here. there is nobody to protect the building because i can even scream. hello! it's empty. >> stefan, they're just trying to protect you from your legions of fans trying to get into the stock exchange. i'm curious -- >> yeah, yeah, right. >> we were talking when the antiausterity protests in madrid failed to get a lot of people to show up, how different do you expect the atmosphere environment to be this time around based on the experience from last week?

>> well, last week was a total failure, but we have to take into account that the demonstration last week was called by some activist group, not from political parties or like unions, like today. they were planning to take not the control, but to make a siege to the parliament until the two houses of parliament would step down. of course, it was a failure. we knew that there were more journalists on the ground than demonstrators. today's will be a different story because the main trade unions have called for 82 demonstrations across the country. probably it's going to be a huge success, given the very weak, very negative economic conditions in spain. >> yep, and people who follow stefan -- >> ross -- >> what's that? >> i didn't hear the answer. would ross have a cnbc tattoo? >> oh, yes. >> no. that's pretty unequivocal. i said no. >> would you, stefan? >> no. >> there we go. >> i have one already.

>> the only question left asking is where kelly had hers? >> i do -- can we clarify right now, i never had a tattoo. i swear. i swear. i swear. nor am i getting one now. >> she couldn't work out where to put it. stefan, thanks for that. that's the latest from spain. this is the latest from athens. it's just worth pointing out, may day, it's not about the rights of spring. it's around the globe, the reason we have these protests is because it is international workers day is the way that it's sort of been used, as international workers day. >> exactly. it's a much more natural reason for people to kind of be out in a demonstration as well. so, it's as much about people sort of using this opportunity for austerity. >> this is in turkey and we have pictures -- >> these are live shots of turkey right now. >> they're not live. >> oh. >> they are pictures from turkey and we had some pictures earlier. >> i mean, that doesn't -- but that looks quite unsettled. and this is korea now, okay. >> one of the -- it was only

introduced by the labor government in the uk in 1978 and one of the reasons that margaret thatcher was against it being may 1st was that it was developed as international labor day in communist countries behind the iron curtain. >> and that's why uk markets are still open today, not celebrating and same in commonwealth countries. let's bring steven englander back into the conversation. steven, may day notwithstanding, the real question across europe is to what extent policymakers are shifting away from some of the more stringent austerity measures we've seen towards being more open to stimulus. do you see the election or selection, i should say, of enrico lettie iti ito in italy catalyst for this conversation, meaning he becomes the role alland wasn't in terms of shifting the conversation? >> he's certainly going to try. the success of five star was a shocker and i think reoriented european policymakers to the need of seeing if they could

supply stimulus. on the other hand, they're kind of ex-ing out fiscal policy. ceb doesn't want to do quantitative easing like the fed, the bank of england, the boj is now doing. they're trying to find a way of providing stimulus to the private sector without buying government bonds, you know, as sort of an intermediate step, and that's kind of hard. you know, you have funding for lending in the uk. it hasn't worked that well. the question is, putting so many constraints on what macro policy can do, are they going to actually be able to deliver the stimulus they need? >> look, they've got cover for it. yesterday we saw eurozone unemployment up at a record high since records began in '95, inflation now down at 1.6%, much weaker than expected, so the ecb has cover to act. question is, steven, tomorrow, do they cut rates or do they try and launch, you mentioned it, a eurozone equivalent of funding for lending? >> well, i think the market fully expects them to cut rates and it would be a tremendous

disappointment if they don't. and i think given the way, you know, peripheral yields have been trading, i think there's something much bigg eger than a basis point cut at the short end because european rates are already below the policy rate right now. so, i think that they will try and launch something like that. the question is whether the market will believe that it can be successful. if not, i think that some of the gains that we've seen on the euro -- you know, we could lose them pretty quickly, because a lot of them are contingent, i think, on policy becoming more stimulatory. >> all right, steven, thanks for that for now. >> steven englander joining us there from citi. again, expectations that we better deliver tomorrow. fighting for pay rise in difficult times isn't easy. we've been asking how far would you go to increase your salary, because workers in one american firm are taking a pretty extreme step of getting a -- >> tattoo. >> tattoo. rapid realty offering employees a 15% pay rate -- that's never

going to get old, your pronunciation of tattoo. a 15% pay boost if they agreed to get inked with their company logo. so, we were asking earlier if you would get a tattoo. your company's logo for a pay rise. a couple more responses. jeff saying it depends on the company and the logo. working for the city sewer department, no. that's definitely not something you'd want. >> they might have a good logo. >> yeah. but would you want people to know? perhaps. you take pride in your work. >> also depends where you put the logo. >> and as i said, i was joking that the reason why people wouldn't want to do it is because removal is very painful. not joking. i know that's the case, but not because i've had a tattoo myself. just to clarify. >> we believe you. >> keep the e-mails coming, worldwide@c.com or tweet us @cnbcwex or tweet us individually on anything you've heard this morning. >> within reason. u.s. markets close out april

on a high market, but as the focus turns to the federal reserve, is it time to sell in may and go away? demonstrators taking to the streets across europe marking may day with protests over austerity. and apple's launched the biggest debt sell in corporate history with investors scrambling to get their hands on ibonds. welcnew york state, where cutting taxes for families and businesses is our business. we've reduced taxes and lowered costs to save businesses more than two billion dollars to grow jobs,

cut middle class income taxes to the lowest rate in sixty years, and we're creating tax free zones for business startups. the new new york is working creating tens of thousands of new businesses, and we're just getting started. to grow or start your business visit thenewny.com [ agent smith ] i've found software that intrigues me. it appears it's an agent of good. ge has wired their medical hardware with innovative software to be in many places at the same time. using data to connect patients to software, to nurses to the right people and machines. ♪ helping hospitals treat people even better, while dramatically reducing waiting time.

now a waiting room is just a room. [ telephone ringing ] [ static warbles ] [ beeping ] red or blue? ♪

mastercard is due to report first-quarter earnings before the bell today, and analysts are expecting continued growth over last year with earnings per share of $6.18 on revenue of about $1.9 billion. rival visa also turning in second-quarter results after the bell. the street expecting a solid jump in profit to $1.81 a share, up from $1.60 in the year-ago period. and aside from those results, investors will also be looking for signs of progress in the expanding area of digital payments. both visa and mastercard have been stepping up competition in this field by introducing new mobile wallet apps, including mastercard's newly launched masterpass and visa's v.me. julu baggs is an analyst at open. thank you for joining us. >> good morning. >> visa and mastercard, looking at their share performance are up in the range of 20% and 40% respectively, or maybe vice versa, but the point being, mobile payments doesn't appear to be a disruptive story for them for the time being. is that the right interpretation

here? >> definitely, yes. mobile payments is very much, it's a long game. if anything, visa and mastercard are being very clever about this. it's a sector where there's a lot of hype, there's a lot of movement, a lot of kind of hyperbole out there, you know, this is going to be a big, revolutionary product. the first mobile payment came out in 1997 and we're still waiting for it 15 years later, but they're really building up the case. >> you mean we're still waiting for that payment to go through? >> well, exactly, you know? with some of these systems, that's the thing. the challenge mobile payments face now is the interpretation for a very long time was, well, consumers make payments, consumers love mobiles, so they're going to love making mobile payments, they'll flock to it right away, but the challenge is using a payment card's simple. it's effective, it works, it's very fast, very simple. it doesn't need any explanation. >> but we need to clarify mobile payments. take a company like square. the original square was something you still needed to use a credit card with. so, if you're using a visa or mastercard, the point is that ultimately, to that company, does it matter then that you're

doing more payments with something like square in some traditional systems? >> exactly. mobile payments, it's kind of an amorphis concept. there's lots of different avenues, but the core of payments stays the same. it's the four corner model. everything still goes through mastercard and visa. >> at the end of the day, the money's got to come from somewhere real, and that's either direct out of your bank account or direct off a debit or credit card that is either supported by mastercard or visa, right? >> exactly, yeah. they'll still collect the interchange fees and be the middleman, essentially, within that system. but what they're afraid of losing is that consumer transaction data, right? they don't want to just become the type in the background. if they start losing the relationship, they almost becomes a back-office thing. they lose the customer facing side. >> and it's a competitive industry, margin pressure. are we seeing any of that start to play out yet? >> there is in other areas. in other words, you know, for telco's been trying to muscle in on this space for a long time,

but they're kind of getting blocked out from a lot of the traditional payment players, because the issue is, for the amount of money they make off of each payment, it's actually not that big and they hold on to that very tightly. so, to suddenly bring somebody else in there, they're going to try to defend that very strongly. >> the danger is if itunes -- if visa takes all the processes through itunes but they don't know what all those people are buying. >> exactly. it's funny you mentioned itunes. if apple decides to turn itunes into a mobile payment system, it's four times bigger than amex overnight. >> wow. >> okay, gillis, thanks for that. still to come, ebay may be ready to join the bit corn revolution. ceo tom donohue tells the "wall street journal" the company is considering adding the virtual currency as a payment option on paypal. he says bitcoin is reminiscent of illegal music-sharing sites like napster, which helped spawn legal sites like spotify. they say adding it would give it

a major boost. it's mostly held by speculators hoping to profit from wild price swings. >> all as amazon is set to unveil its own virtual currency, which customers can use to purchase products on the kindle fire tablet. the group heralding amazon coins as the easiest way for fire companies to spend money in the app store and they'll be available to u.s. customers first. a recap of the headlines going to break. u.s. markets end april on a high. will investors decide to sell in may and go away or not? we might get some clues from the fed. equity markets across asia and europe largely closed for may day as workers take to the streets. security at the capital is stepped up amid austerity protests. and the china economic story spelling sluggish growth for may. official pmi officially falls in april. but investors lining up in droves to get a piece of apple's ibonds, making the company's debt sale one of the largest in corporate history.

welcome back to the program. being the 1st of may and a lot of concerns of whether to sell in may, we wanted to recap april performance with a couple of the out-performers, starting with the s&p 500, which did manage, if you look up here, to add about 1.8% for the month, a respectable gain. if you annualize that, you're talking something in the range

of 12%. of course, as we know yesterday, breaking up to new nominal highs, 1,597, as you can imagine will generate a flurry of headlines should we hit 1,600. the fed headlines may be key to whether that happens. it's been quiet in europe. the key story has been japan and the nikkei this month adding 11.8%. so, the extraordinary run continues. we've seen gains in the range of 40, maybe almost 50% going back to the end of last year. and now there's going to be plenty of pressure on japan to actually deliver. the wage data today down 0.6% year over year underscoring that challenge. here's a look as well at one of the surprising top performers of the month, the ftse mib. the index up 9.3%. it helps to have a massive sell-off going into that and also the slight resolution of the questions hovering over italian politics that helped that index. and frankly, spain as well, not only seeing a massive rally in peripheral debt, but also a

rally in equities. ross. from looking back to looking forward, this is where we stand with the u.s. market open right now. we're implied up 1.5 points, dow jones up and nasdaq, too. remember, these stocks have had their best four months for the s&p since 1998 and for the dow since 1999, and of course, we're up at fresh highs as well for the s&p. so, what are investors to do at this 1st of may? are you supposed to sell, go away, stay with it? here's a recap of some of the thoughts. >> see people selling the euro, they most likely, that's something that's going to prevail for at least a couple weeks. this could take us down to say 1 1 1.2750. that is my target for say the end of the year. >> ahead of the ecb, i think that we've still got to be looking at being longer market.

so, long bundz, long periphery it doesn't really matter. >> i think people might be attracted by the u.s. dollar, but it's emerging markets where you get the highest real returns. and for the g-10 currencies, i think there's just a little bit of juice in sweden and norway, and people will continue to buy the aussie dollar. now, later today, the federal reserve will make its decision on u.s. benchmark interest rates and update on its monthly bond-buying program. last month, the fomc said policy will remain as it is until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5% or inflation rises to 2.5%. and to jump-start the u.s. recovery, the fed has undertaken three rounds so far of so-called quantitative easing since 2008. that's more than triple its balance sheet to just over $3 trillion. it is currently buying $85 billion a month in both mortgage-backed securities and treasuries. so, let's get a view perhaps

what we might hear from the fed starting today and then broaden the conversation out a little bit. neil irwin is joining us, "washington post" columnist. neil, great to see you. what are market expectations, do you think? >> you know, i think the market will be pretty shocked if they did anything other than continue their $85 mibillion a month in bond purchases. they may downgrade the talk on the economy, meaning they're less likely to taper the bond purchases off in the months ahead, but the real message out of the fed today is almost certainly going to be continuity, no radical shifts in their strategy. >> neil, how much lifting is ben bernanke doing for the world at this point? you know, basically, how much onus is falling on the fed, for example, to act when either the ecb seems reluctant or unwilling to? >> you know, they're absolutely the ones that are really driving the train along with the japanese now. you know, the question is, is the ecb going to find something other than just an interest rate cut, whether if not this week, maybe in a future month? are they at the end of the road,

nearing their own zero bound, are they at the bottom of what they can do or can they find the equivalent of the credit easing, pumping money directly into the troubled european economies like spain and greece? >> neil, you've got a book out now, "the al chemist: three central bankers and the world on fire." tell us about these three and who in retrospect history will be kindest to. >> it's been a remarkable first six years, as we know. we all know about the 2008 phase of the crisis and the dramatic stuff that happened after lehman brothers failed. i try to tell a more global story, a longer story, jean-claude trichet and mario draghi at the ecb dealing with the central bank crisis, the bank of england and this grinding slow, stagnant economy in britain of the last few years, and of course, ben bernanke and the federal reserve and all the rounds of qe, and as the u.s. economy started to stagnate, firing up the presses once again and doing qe. i think that bernanke approach

looks quite good so far. obviously, history will judge depending on how the exit looks, and almost certainly, bernanke will be long gone. i think right now, bernanke looks very good along with mario draghi-a lot more success than jean-claude trichet ever did at really answering europe's crisis on the scale that was requiring. >> it's interesting. and there's now talk about, you know, bernanke saying who might succeed him. have you got any thoughts on what sort of kind of person you need, what you need for the next stage? >> yeah, you know, it's a harder job than it was six or seven years ago when ben bernanke took the job. i don't think ben bernanke would actually be the right candidate if he were up for the job today. very good economist at the time, didn't have a lot of communications or political or diplomatic or regulatory or financial market background. the thing is, you need all of those. you see the new model central banker, mario draghi, soon to be the bank of england, who bring all the central skills to bear, very good communicators, very

good diplomats, good regulators, they know economics and regulators. having that is a challenge and not many people have it. in the united states for succeeding bernanke in january of 2013, people talk about janet yellen as the leading candidate. i think she is likely the candidate more than anybody else, currently the vice chair, but i don't think it's a sure thing. i think the president will certainly look to other possibilities as well. roger ferguson, former vice chair under alan greenspan, larry summers. or jeremy stein, so, i think janet yellen has good odds of getting the job but it's not a good thing. the thing is, does she have the dinism that you need in this era? >> you mentioned mario draghi who you were fairly impressed with. what he certainly has done is marginaliz marginalized to some extend the bank. we have a report out they were telling the constitutional court they were against the omt program, which has done so much to bring yields down.

where do you think the relationship between the bund y es bank and the ecb is going and does that have the potential to blow things up a bit? >> it's amazing how successful draghi has been working around the bunds bank. he's gotten the rest of the council on board with the omt and other easing measures. so, you know, some of these central banks, the finnish central bank, the dutch who were opponents of earlier phases of bond buys in europe, they've now come around, so it's now just the bundes bank that's isolated, it's isolated within germany as well. you have support for merkel, so as long as draghi's successful at this kind of subtle diplomatic game, keeping the rest of the governing council on board, keeping some allies in the german political system, i think he can go ahead and bundes bank can dissent and make all the noise they want there's nothing they can do about it. >> good stuff, neil irwin, "washington post" columnist and

author of "the alchemist: three central bankers and a world on fire." >> "world on fire" has popped up in how many book titles the last few years? how telling. if you're just joining us, looking at today's top stories, the fed is considering caps on bank leverage. the "financial times" saying they have discussed increasing the amount of capital they must set under the new vol-3 rules, coming amid concern that banks are gaming the system as they could vary capital levels based on the riskiness of individual assets. some in congress have proposed a 15% leverage ratio, but the "ft" says few u.s. regulators want to go that far. and bank companies and golden gates have reportedly emerged to be the front-runners to buy bmc software. reuters suggests the range is between $45 and $50 a share, beating out rival group. the deal would be one of the biggest leverage buyouts of the year after michael dell teamed with silver lake partners to

take dell privates. bmc is just down marginally in frankfurt. >> well, if it were trading, or it was yesterday. we should say, if this is the deal that we're talking about, do you know what i mean? like, all of this talk about whether the big dell deal would spur big further deals, this is not to me indicative that we're starting to see that kind of activity if we're talking about a deal of this size as a major story, anyway. we'll see if things pick up if we don't hit the summer slump, which is why the sell in may becomes all the more relevant. still to come, apple breaking another record. investors are lining up to get a hold of its ibonds and we'll tell you more about the debt sale when we come back. stay with us. [ driver ] today, my ambulance knew all about a bike accident,

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the new blackberry z10 with blackberry hub and flick typing. built to keep you moving. see it in action at blackberry.com/z10 welcome back to the program. a couple of stories to check out online, including this. london department store says blackberry's new z-10 phone was its fastest selling technology product ever. it sold out in just two hours. we're asking, this the beginning of a blackberry rebound? catch the full write-up on the website. it may be the old cliche term sell in may and go away, but could it be competent advice after hitting a new high in the s&p? that's the argument of one analyst. you can get more of those takes on the website, cnbc.com. and of course, you can read more about the big story of the day,

and that's apple. yeah, apple certainly in focus today, $17 billion in a new issuance. it's not a new iphone or ipad, but investors still lining up to get their hands on this latest product offering. let's get you more on those details. the yields, the spreads, everything you need to know. kayla's with us stateside. hey, kayla. quite an offer. >> hey, ross. it is, and one the "l.a. times" described as the financial equivalent to a line stretching around the block for one of these apple products. $17 billion in bonds on tuesday, a six-part deal offering, maturities from three years to 30 years, really running the gamete here. the amount of orders, though, reached $52 billion, making it the largest corporate bond sale in history. the previous record was set in 2009 when swiss drugmaker roche sold $16.5 billion miles per ho ho hour. apple is selling debt to get to plans to return $100 billion in

cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks over the next three years. apple has $145 billion in cash, which is more than enough to fund that program, but most of that money is parked overseas and they are choosing not to repatriate it. issuing bonds helps it avoid that u.s. tax bill, especially with interest rates so low right now. apple priced the three-year bond at 0.511%, the ten-year at 2.41% and the 30-year at $3.88%, just barely above where the equivalent treasuries are trading right now. analysts say that's comparable to what a aaa-rated company could command. last week, s&p and moody's rated apple at one notch below aaa. moody says only four non-aaa companies have that rating and apple doesn't deserve it because it could adopt more shareholder-friendly policies and apple's decision not to repatriate that cash could force it down the road to borrow even more. the bond sale dividend increase and buybacks all part of apple's plans to reverse a 37% drop in its share price over the past seven months amid concerns about

shrinking margins and more competition in the smartphone and tablet market. since announcing its plans last week, thoi though, the stock han about 9%. investors cheering this, way to go. >> kayla, great to see you. wait a minute, they're really arguing this isn't a aaa company? >> they are, kelly, and i think that it's an interesting point to make. remember, the aaa companies of your world, general electric, target, a lot of those companies that didn't traditionally have leverage, now that apple is not only choosing to borrow, but choosing to borrow in the range of $17 billion, which is no small feat, and that its decision to do that now means it could still do it down the road if interest rates stay low, they're basically saying, well, they could bring on more debt. you know, they haven't told us that they are scaling back on their leverage, and you know, they're just trying to be conservative at this point. >> i suppose the thing is, it's how many companies could borrow $17 million and write a check

and pay it back tomorrow? and if that doesn't make -- you know, that's -- if they can literally write a check, they've got that amount of cash, they can borrow it and pay it back the same day. >> they very well could. not many companies could do that, but $145 billion of tax and still a lot of that parked overseas, as we mentioned. so, the tax rate on repatriating that money would cost a pretty penny, so they are choosing to use the low interest rates and lock down those low rates. i mean, 0.511% for a 3-year bond for a u.s. corporate, that is an unbelievable record. $52 billion book, that is, what, four times oversubscribed, three times oversubscribed for a jumbo offering. we should also note, they're doing two issues in floating rates. >> right. >> so, a lot of investors, i'm told, were saying you know, we want to be able to hedge for the expectation that rates will rise. we would love for two floating rate notes to be a part of this offering, too, so they eventually did include that as

well. >> which will be a really interesting tell for apple in the case of higher interest rates, if we ever get there. kayla, great to see you. thanks very much again. if you're just joining us, these are your headlines. u.s. markets closing out april on a high note but focus turning to the fed to see whether it is time to sell in may. demonstrators taking to the streets across europe. it's may day. there are protests over austerity. and apple launching the largest debt sale in corporate history, potentially, with investors scrambling to get their hands on ibonds. and the media sector in the spotlight. several names including telecom and warner with results. ♪

[ agent smith ] i've found software that intrigues me. it appears it's an agent of good. ge has wired their medical hardware with innovative software to be in many places at the same time. using data to connect patients to software, to nurses to the right people and machines. ♪ helping hospitals treat people even better, while dramatically reducing waiting time. now a waiting room is just a room. [ telephone ringing ] [ static warbles ] [ beeping ]

red or blue? ♪ red or blue? welcnew york state, where cutting taxes for families and businesses is our business. we've reduced taxes and lowered costs to save businesses more than two billion dollars to grow jobs, cut middle class income taxes to the lowest rate in sixty years, and we're creating tax free zones for business startups. the new new york is working creating tens of thousands of new businesses, and we're just getting started. to grow or start your business visit thenewny.com u.s. futures, take a look at the boards today. we're about to get an update on the agenda as well, and here's a look. about 13, 14 points for the dow, a couple points higher for the s&p and nasdaq after breaching new nominal highs, of course.

the question is, can we continue with these gains? here are some things to look out for the adp employment report for april out and then the ism manufacturing index, an important one because it could slip under 50 into contractionry territory. and comcast, our parent company, reports results before the open and time warner and viacom, also mastercard, merck, and after the close, facebook, visa, cbs and yelp. michael morris is a media analyst at davenport & coe. joining me now. which is best positioned? >> i think media in general is well positioned right now. we like the subscription payments these companies get from their distribution partners, the comcasts, directvs of the world. with time warner and viacom both reporting this morning, they should see growth in their payments and they have large return-to-capital programs. >> to what extent will the

traditional rivals have to work together to fend off the new media distribution models that are up and coming? >> it's a great question, and if you look at what happened last week with netflix announcing to the world they were going to let a distribution agreement with viacom expire, that certainly concerned investors a bit, but when you look at how much revenue these companies come from their traditional model, so that would be cable and satellite distribution and advertising relative to the digital payments, it really is an immaterial impact. so, i think you'll continue to see the time warners, the viacoms, cbss work independently as long as they growth the distribution fees. >> how long do you think that's going to be? >> oh, i think we have several years. if you look, there continues to be concern that the domestic consumer is going to cut off their pay tv subscription, but we're not seeing it right now. we still had about 400,000 net subscribersless year on the video side. and when you look at the incremental savings of

disconnecting your video versus having to increase the cost of your high-speed internet to have a service such as netflix as your only video provider it still doesn't make economic sense for the consumer. >> just curious to tie this back to the apple story, how important are buybacks for the share performance of the companies? they've been doing extremely well, the fundamental story is still intact, but it's also a play on a buyback-driven market as well. >> i think that's right. when you look at these companies, as i mentioned, they're very cash flow generative. the subscription fees are consistent, they're high visibility, high margin. at the same time, i mentioned 400,000 new subscribers in the u.s. it's not terrible, but it's not a growth business. so, given that these are pe stories and investors want to see earnings growth, you need to take that cash flow and continue to shrink the equity base to support those earnings growth rates. >> right. we'll see if they can do it when they join us. michael morris from richmond, from the great state of virginia. and for all of you joining us this morning, thank you for tuning in. we'll be back tomorrow.

>> "squawk box" is coming up next.

good morning. stocks continue on this record run, the dow now up five months in a row. can we make it six? the s&p and nasdaq even one better, they've already done that, but it's may 1st, and you know what that saying is, sell in may and go away. we'll see. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪ i've been trying to do it right ♪ good morning, everybody! welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin.

and hey, our top story today is the global markets. stocks rallying late yesterday. in fact, the s&p hitting a record intraday high just in the final seconds of trading. the dow at this point, it is official, it's ended higher for 16 straight tuesdays. the blue chips index is up in each of the first four months of the year, and this is for the third consecutive year that this has happened. by the way, this is the best start to a year for the dow since 1998. the futures this morning, well, at this point, they are indicated slightly higher. dow futures up by just about 9 points, s&p futures up by 1 1/2 points. so, we'll see where we go from here, even though it's may 1st. >> look at a daily chart from yesterday. did you see it? >> it was pretty remarkable. >> all day, down, down -- >> down, down, and right at the end. >> boom, beautiful. pfizer was the problem yesterday, in the dow, right? let's go through lipitor. >> the list of -- >> 180 million, is that the number? >> yeah, yeah. lipitor, patent expiration in europe this time for