>> welcome back to squawk. you get the last word, but we don't have time for the last word. >> together? over a hundred. >>. >> with these two clowns. >> good-looking clowns. >> mark zandi for zit sitting in with us and i'm headed to omaha. i will join you monday. >> your pick is verazzano and i'm normandy invasion. "squawk on the street" is next. >> good morning. welcome to "stalk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla, jim cramer and david faber. 165 non-farm jobs being added. the revision are a completely new story, as well, which we'll talk about. implied triple-digit move up 110 and we'll see if europe reacts to this, as well. some of those revisions, you're

talking based on how you account for census hiring. in some cases, some of the single best month we've seen from 2005 and we will begin with sending futures higher. the s&p on track to surpass 1600 for the first time. non-parm payroll, 165,000 private sector jobs and that rate to 7.5, and that is the lowest in four years. a lot of discussions weave had about these revisions and whether this month is clean or whether that matters because the revisions were so good. >> i'm looking at the claims numbers and the claims numbers in the last four weeks as you just tweeted showed you that yes, you should have taken the over that the claims were down. the claims in the previous month were terrible. so i do have to suspect that this has just become an unreliable figure versus what we know in the consumer relations -- customer relations management and the s&p would give you and what a sales force would give

you and i have to tell you, we should retire that number as much as we like the quarter. i don't think it is worth sharing with the viewers. >> what it doesn't give you about economic growth. >> i think it's coming down a little. that's why the cyclicals have come back? i think europe's turning, but i do think retail was stronger than expected. >> retail is a great conundrum for people because we keep thinking how is it possible that they're expecting. >> this is about your home increasing in value. i think housing punches much above its weight. when your house moves up, you spend more on your house. there's more upward mobility and housing remains the single greatest theme -- that's why people ask this morning how can we get so much bad manufacturing number, isms, durables and

dallas fed, but your point is kay shiller and housing numbers have been the bright spots in the macro data point. >> it's california, it's phoenix and the turn in atlanta that kay shiller figured. it's the northeast doing okay. it's your house going a little bit up in value which then makes you say, i'm going do a little fix up. i'm going go to pier 1. i'm going go to costco. i can quit my job and get another job in another city if i have to. i feel more confident about my ability to spend on a vacation and the banks will start to loan a little bit more because they know your house is no longer going down in value and maybe the bank examiners lighten up a litt little. these are all positives, and i think that those who continue to peg housing as only 10% of the economy have no idea what a job creator was when we were at 4.6% unemployment and we were building 2 million.

1.7, 1.8. we may only build 1 million homes this year. we need a dramatic increase in the number of homes being built. >> is easy money a mirage. are we living in a matrix world because of the fed stimulus. >> does this data today make it seem real? >> i think that something's happening. something is afoot, and i know if we focus only on manufacturing and then we get caught in the european conundrum because our manufacturing. we're exporters and without worldwide growth the only company that will get great export is boeing because they're such a great manufacturer and i'm not looking at exports. i'm looking at housing and the multiplier effect and i know the really great bankers in the country will tell you $6. $1 housing is equal to $6. i think that's what you're seeing, one to six. what it means for the markets

today, cyclicals will continue to rally and this is the first time the cyclicals will continue to outperform. >> we labored mightily yesterday to get over the 1597. where is resistance now? this is out of bristol miers and into industrials and i think industrials can take us up further and the industrials have been very poor performers when we saw the numbers. i don't want to bet against the industrials and by the the way, tech, if you can find it tech companies are doing well. >> there are a lot of tech companies that are doing well and some of them are trading at multiples which are not particularly high which is why we've seen a much nicer rally in some of the bigger names. >> i'm looking at what the the new intel ceo is saying and i'm wondering if he can't spur value there. i can't go yet to hewlett-packard, but stranger things have happened. >> although that's got its own set of challenges.

these are job creators. >> they are. although at the beginning you said this number is not one we can attach credence to any longer as a great barometer. >> automatic data. >> i'm sorry. >> some are saying that last month's number which was miserable was not in line with the revision trend at that time. this number is. so theoretically you can argue this is a plain number. >> i'm going there because i'm trying to understand why the stock market was not going down a lot. i feel a turn in europe is a a foot. this is a union pacific number. this is csx -- this is an alan mulally ford, let's open the plant in kansas city number. >> i don't know. i'm not seeing the revenue growth and -- are you going the topdown stuff? >> i am going the topdown stuff. this is a big week where we have not seen significant revenue. they've made the bottom line

through cost-cutting and not necessarily through increases on the return on that invested capital. i don't know. >> well, here, in the last five years, here are the companies that have added employees. home depot, pfizer, mcdonald's, boeing, 3m, united health. dupont, disney. j.p. morgan, walmart. hewlett-packard, intel and they've all added people in the last five years. >> in the united states and that's what we're trying to figure out and ooh been a bear -- >> that's interesting. >> i was wondering where that came from and i was impressed with it. >> alcoa down 51,000, at&t down 67,000, american express down four, merck down 28. when you go back there are are can companies that have cut back dramatically. almost all of those are multinationals and where are they adding the jobs? >> i'm doing my darn best. i was talking to my trainer. it was 4:00 a.m. and he said that number is no good. i want to know how many internationals. everybody is a critic.

everybody is a critic of my work. i think by using -- i like that. >> it really is. it doesn't help me understand the am doestic employment picture because -- >> we are seeing reports that maybe chuck schumer, can he get a bill on the table that gives multinationals a repatriation holiday? >> that was the cover of usa today. >> that was in the post today. >> it was in the post. i clipped it. >> pay 35 on repatriated capital. >> bring it on home. bring it on home to me. this is the sam cook option that schumer is paying. >> i hear it. sam cook. you don't know much about history, i know that. >> zero. nothing. >> i do know the obama administration has been dead set against any tax break in terms of repatriation. >> maybe chuck schumer can change their mind.

>> is your linesman, jack lew in favor of it? >> right. my fellow forest hillsian. >> i do not know. i do not know mr. lou's view, although he may be part of the administration for a good time. the money is absolutely right. >> talk about lots of money, by the way, the jobs report putting it back in the spotlight in the wake of recent steps boosting economic recovery. last week becky quick asked billionaire investor warren buffett about the bond buying program and the possibility that it might exceed $85 million a month. >> i think it would be pretty extraordinary. the fed's balance sheet is 3.4 trillion, roughly and $85 billion a month is a lot to buy. basically, they're buying the debt work creating and to go beyond that, an awfully big number. i think bernanke needs help, but the economy is improving.

i want to emphasize that. not a very rapid clip, but this country has done well since 2008 and certainly compared to much of the rest of the world. >> all right. we'll take that. this economy is improving and he has said this a number of times and he also has a good picture given the portfolio of companies that have come under the berkshire banner. >> a lot of people forget it is a housing play and a pipeline play. >> it's literally bricks and the railroad was in retrospect, a fabulous buy. >> when you go to the bakken which i know you may do eventually, if i could get you in manhattan i know i can get him into north dakota and there are rail lines that are burlington northern's and that's a company that has diversified away from the -- let's just say power over coal. >> i like that stock. my friend is out there saying he

doesn't like it. as a bear i don't think there is a revision that i want right now. the geico business is so -- insurance. the portfolio is good. woo we all joke, but you've gotten your insurance bill? it's not the same -- funny you mention that. >> geico was moving me up and up and up for years so i went to travelers. sorry, guys. you know. >> travelers. wow! is that because you like fishman? is that just a throw it to fishman all? >> it was purely price. i'm upstate. buy a conviction buy in part because of my homeowners. >> by the way, we should note, warren is paying his people fairly well and an interesting story and two of those guys we brought in and it's an interesting compensation structure, but they're getting well paid because they have the management. >> she's still paying a higher tax rate. >> she's paying a higher tax

rate. >> incredible. she's not done. she's got a long weekend ahead. just amazing stuff today. monday will be a big day for squawk, as well. we'll talk about jobs all morning long and got to mention linkoid in. shares of the media company down sharply despite quadrupling their earnings and the stock up 52%. the revenue for the quarter, not for the year, the revenue for the quarter forecast is not good. >> i have in my hand a 15-page brief in favor of fabulous forward look at linkedin and there are two lines in this conference call that have destroyed this stock today, and i say they are doing upod. they are underpromising and they will overdeliver. i want to buy linkedin and don't let this yellow line. what do i have to do there? this is the only negative, if page after page after page is

premium model terrific, i refuse to be tied down by the one line. i like linked in. they have beaten on revenue since their ipo. isn't it something? >> a new product that will feed into it. >> the facebook news feed is back. it's facebook, linked in. that era of social media companies and some of them have reported spectacular numbers. there are people that believe that the power of the business model has begun to be tapped and think about what they can conceivably do for companies well beyond. i will not. i have been looking for a job for a very long time. >> in fact -- >> that's very nice, but it has all these other things and a lot more power that has not yet to tap. >> has m.c. asked you to write

pieces. >> dan greenhouse as of today. >> the pope. >> the pope. >> 140 words. he's sticking with that. he does not get 240. you might think he gets more characterization. he gets the same amount of characters because we're in a gal tearian world. >> he was tired of putting pictures of him on twitter so now we can see it. i wish you guys knew brad rubin. he's the king. >> everybody i know is joining twitter. >> this hiring of the morgan stanley banker is saying about m & a and about ipos. what do you think? >> i think it's probably about both. >> and who would get that business, do you think? >> i think i'm not sure. the goldman sachs elevator. >> here is a funny site. >> it's as good, though, as if our puppies overheard site which

i love, by the way, is one of the funniest. you have to watch the puppets overheard upon. it's hysterically funny. >> how do you like the fact that we have 70% of the apple bond deal? how did we manage that? 137 in fees, that was great! >> holy cow! >> as we mentioned earlier, berkshire's annual meeting in the spotlight. stick around for an interview with charlie munger. that's coming up ahead. bob lutz, someone who knows quite a bit about hiring and we'll talk about the better than expected number and talk about his new book. futures looking awfully good. how do we hang above 1600 if that's where we open. a lot more "squawk on the street" when we return.

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this week we asked you to tweet us the april predictions for the non-farm payroll number. did you nail the number? 165. our staff will go through the entries and one lucky person will receive this prize. yep, i know. we went all out. somebody did get it, i am told. that water bottle autographed by the entire "squawk on the street" gang will get it later on this morning. >> a lot of the guesses were under this morning. >> yes. >> under consensus just because there had been this general group thing that it was not going to be good. even buffett told becky it would come in light. i think you were so shocked by last time that you started thinking maybe there was a bias to the system and it keeps

coming under what you think and that turned out to be not the case. >> what are you thinking about? >> i'm thinking about jack we h welch. >> we have to mention government investigators accusing j.p. morgan chase of mannipulating i california. it was carried out by houston. they used senior executives gave false information. my masters laid whoa is involved with that is instrumental in the creation of cbs. >> so you're talking about a god send for our society. cvs has been great. it's funny. an analyst was quotid and think it was the journal story. only people care about it is if you're making mono pep you do wonder at what point the regulatory scrutiny and the fact that they seem to have fallen out of favor and this was the

reporting being done the times and the journal also had a piece on it. to what extent does that start to mitigate or work against j.p. morgan's ability to make money. >> i think the stock will be 53, 54. it's lagged through a good quarter. jamie dimon did point out in his letter, listen, there will will be more investigations. i don't want investigations. the ceo is not giving you investigations. us banks is not giving you investigations. michael corbat at city is not giving you investigations. he's given you an approach for a bank that's about to get out. it can mean that certain business lines are not going to be profitable. >> i search for a playbook silver lining on the fact that i saw bradley cooper and i don't have it. >> you don't? >> they're still making money to the analyst points. >> does senator warren get "the new york times."

do they take her copies away so she doesn't see it? it's tough to defend them. nothing says these regulations, i mean, who knows? there's a lot of active and aggressive regulators out there that may be overstepping the bounds. who knows? >> do you think that could be? >> i don't know. i don't know. when it comes to the energy markets and what people are paying for their power people will get involved. >> remember when enron cut the power in california. >> those were the days. >> as we get to the opening bell in eight and a half minutes, cramer has some advice for your portfolio and believe me, we need it today. how hot is going to be too hot as the dow looks to open 123 points higher. "squawk on the street" from the nyse straight ahead. oh, boy. [ groans ] ♪

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six minutes exactly before the opening bell. time for cramer's "mad dash" ahead of the market open. >> very rarely do hedge funds pile into a stock and it works. benmosche, remarkable ceo, one stat that you need to know. mortgage insurance which had been a tremendous black hole swung from zero, $40 million positive. this division was supposed to make nothing, and that's an example of the kind of division that's come to life that makes it so that the earnings are -- the estimates are way too low. this is not done. >> no, it's not done. >> let's not forget the government's gone.

they're out. you don't have to worry about the overhang or anything else. >> you pointed out, it was a hedge fund favorite which makes you start to wonder sometimes because when they pile in, the history does not -- >> the co-portfolio manager with my charitable trust. we sold this stock and roll into hartford. why? because when every hedge fund is intoing some, david, there is no bid when things go bad. >> why do you feel they've got more to go. >> the book value numbers -- i think bob benmosche. when the government owned it and i think they scrubbed the book clean. this is not some sort of rejection where the book is idle projection and it was always a great company, but it did overstep in financial insurance, but mortgage insurance. >> overstepped just a teensy bit. >> i do remember a quarterly loss. >> they took a hit.

>> a hit. >> but they're back. nobody would have thought that, by the way. what are we? four minute away from the opening bell. that job number, of course, is on now so the watch is on for the 1600. stay tuned. we're right back. changing the world is exhausting business.

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they say happy friday and it certainly looks that way for now. you are watching "squawk on the street" live from the financial capital of the world. futures were literally on the fence prior to the jobs numbers. all three were hugging the flat line and they moved big on not just the jobs number, jim, the revisions for the last couple of months. copper was up for the best day in a year and a half. >> scx which was a downer -- there are a whole host -- you know, here are just some that are trading up in the -- rio tinto. bhp is trading up. the silver stocks are trading up. holy cow! it's noteworthy. those have been the real laggards and maybe there's room to run.

even my valet is trading up. vale. >> and the bite. [ bell ringing ] >> there is the s&p virtually all green today. >> look at this. >> over at the big board. employees who volunteered for junior achievement. our thanks to them and at the nasdaq, russian electronic payments kiwi celebrating its ipo with with that, breaking news. the s&p has hit 1600. a new all-time high. the question today, jim, is going to be how shot too hot? >> i just need it made up by the right companies. the companies that have not performed. the companies that are not that expensive and not made up -- no

offense to kellogg. no offense to pfizer, but i don't want them to be the reason because those are really overstretched in valuation versus a microsoft which you know, even at 33 has done nothing. >> well, it's had quite a good couple of weeks. >> of late. >> bellini and rick sherwin said sell it. not picking on anybody. i love everybody. i have been gandhiized. >> this moment, though, jim, brings to mind all of the equity strategists who were looking for 1550 by year end. they were looking for 1575 by year end. >> a couple of months ago this number that we're at right now seemed silly to some, and i should mention, too, we are also closed and in bull market territory off of the november lows. >> a lot of people feel he's been too bullish. i would point out that he has been saying you can get an 18 to 19 multiple average for the s&p and we are still way up. i want to do it on earnings, but

if we see united states turn around and if europe is at a bottom, this is dow chemical which is not expensive. this will be ppg. this will be companies that are -- dare i say, charitable trust name. general electric. >> i was trying to ask you about that very name right before you mentioned it. >> this stock has done virtually nothing for a very, very long time. >> i know. >> it was six bucks at the march '09 low, but it's been $29, give or take a buck for years. >> it really was a great sale when you hear it. >> this is when you start getting caterpillar to come back. this is when you start hearing and this is when you have to buy them in advance of when they come back. cummins will be able to do it's up 2 bucks and will be able to do better earnings. >> you in general have never been a fan of up opens. >> and during the course of the

day. how much of that exists. >> this is one where it will be harder to have reversal because we've had so much money come in in the morning. there are just may profit taking. we haven't had it. just haven't had it, and i know, look. if you take a look at what's rallying, it is. it's all broad, but let me give you an example of what could go up a lot, carl, and not be stretch valuation. the oil, if you look at the oils they're up 3%, 4% for the year and if we have an economic recovery there will be more oil used and we are down to 7 million import, but a recovery will pick that up. >> although tech and energy along with materials and financials have since the start of last week, at least. >> right. that's when people start anticipating a really good number. >> to put the 1600 into perspective, howard silverblatt at the s&p. >> 13 years, one month and 11

days. 13 years since we hit a fresh, hundred-point increment high on the s&p. >> that's an astounding statistic. it speaks to the power of this market if we ever get to where the nasdaq -- you and i are out of here. carl, you can stick around. >> i'll keep the lights on. >> i know we'll be sitting here saying what are we going to do? we'll lose people's fortunes. >> march of 2000. what's our whole high? 52 something, right? >> it all depends on the makeup. i keep coming back to the idea that if this is a rally that is led by texas instruments and intel, it's got some staying power because those stocks haven't done anything. it was a rally led by bristol-myers we'll come up short. >> the s&p sectors that have underperformed the worst in order, tech, energy, materials, telecom, industrials. that's coming from november lows and november 15th and that's 40% of the s&p and maybe a little bit more.

that to me, is to pick up the slack. the stocks aren't expensive and i can give you a half dozen of them right now. i had eaten on this week, sandy cut ler. he is talking about a bottom in europe, mired in molasses was his quote. a turn in asia and u.s. getting better. commercial real estate maybe even. we haven't built much in this country. that's been fine. real estate has not been -- >> it depends market to market. >> the financing's been hard from the point of view of securitization. >> the securitization market has come back. it's not what it was, but it's not insignificant. >> let's talk about wells fargo for a success. this is not an expensive stock at all, but what it's lacked is a yield curve to play with the net interest margins. remember they didn't have a good mortgage number? that can come back. housing, housing, housing. >> we should mention shares of gm after yesterday having a strong day on earnings, up

another 3%. >> it's right there. now you do, there you still have the u.s. government as opposed to aig which we just mentioned them in the mad dash was up by 4%. you still have the government, but you don't know where they are. they're sort of drilling it out. ibm at 209 reported a number that everyone said was the kiss of death of ibm and it trades quickly at 187 and 188. >> where is ibm today? look at that. 204, and that's a comeback, and by the way, buffett talking to becky last night saying he is not selling ibm and he may have added to his position recently. >> he's cagey. >> he is. >> to put a stamp on fact that he's not leaving it for any means. >> he's got an inexpensive portfolio. i think his stock is the stock to buy. >> even the ten-year yield is up today. who knows? a couple of more weeks of good news like this and we'll start talking about it and we'll start

having that conversation again. >> among the big gainers, navistar, right? cummins, eastman chemical. goodyear, gm. >> you just named companies that have a very low multiple on 2014 that no one is paying attention to. they had one bad line that people fled the stock on. >> goldman, this is stock i like very much. this stock has been pretty much unch, because that's where you need to see the power from, and they've done nothing. a lot of companies have done nothing. so that's where you need to see money go into. not conagra as much as i like r ronkin. those stocks have had their day and maybe they can creep up, but you need to see a concerted move by a united technologies which reported a quarter and people didn't care for it right here. >> how about 3m?

just last thursday, 3m reporteded a disappointing number. the stock was trading at 107 and 108. we're back. the old minnesota mining and manufacturing, david. >> yes, it is. >> minnesota mining. perk pg, this is a quiz. what were they? >> i have no idea. >> pittsburgh plate glass. >> oh, man! >> i knew. pittsburgh plate and glass. >> you switch the initials when you want to put the past behind you. that's what people do. >> i know we want to get to pisani. morgan stanley shares are up 3.5%. >> there's a law that says it can't take out 33 and it is the 35 act. >> look. it's got a $46 billion market cap at morgan stanley. it's not bite size any longer. >> no. not that there will be consolidation in financial services and by the way, they're owned 22% by the japanese. >> how about the goldman sachs? is there any chance for that stock? >> wow!

that stock's up. i mean, now you're starting to talk about glacial. >> let's get to been pisani on the floor. >> not only are we at 1600, we're approaching 16,000 and we have a new intraday high and the 887. i just want to point out the commodity stocks are screaming this morning and put up a board here. rio tinto. and even cliffs which has been a disastrous year for them was on the upside. was this a bit of an embarrassment on the street? we've been talking about it for two days and everyone was positioned negative for this and everyone expected a subpar number and not only did it blow it up on the upside. the revision was enormous and how surprised was everybody? they moved up in 20 seconds. in germany, the dax moved a hundred points and that's 1 1/4%. you very rarely get germany

reacting to a u.s. economic number moving up. that's how surprised people were. >> i hate this world goldie locks and you have an improving jobs report right now and you have the central banks essentially saying if there is further weakness at this point and i call up to traders and talk to them on the floor and the biggest fear is underperformance and once again we're back to the thing of trying to catch up and there is the short squeeze play trying to catch up. standard pacific has another great report. you know the report from these guys. there are new orders up 49% so we've been getting orders still up 30, 40, even 49% overall. look, i completely agree, it's a sluggish economy despite the fact we have zero interest rates. one trader said to me this will force more capital our way into the united states. more foreign money coming into the united states because even

with 2% gdp or below that, we are still the best place in the world. copper up 5% and i'm not sure whether it's the best day in ten months or 18 months, but it's rare to see copper up 5%. there are plenty of people who are skeptical about this and that's a good sign. a lot of people are saying there will be a pullback another two weeks from now and there's still a lot of people believe the sell in may idea. earnings, i would point out, up 4.5% for the quarter so far. as i said, 5% is good enough for a lot of people and even with the top line growth, a measly 4.9% and by the way, in twrurp, the european commission found out the new estimates for growth in 2013 is now negative. negative 0.1% gdp and that's the first time i've seen them on negative and the sectors for the week here and the big risk is back. industrials, technology stocks are all of the big movers this week and that includes some of the opening today. guys? back to you, and happy friday.

>> they're back from dead. oh, boy, look at that one. the bioteches and there goes gilead again. how is my pal at regeneron, up 19 points. rick santelli at the cme group in chicago, rick. >> thanks, jim. here we sit at 170 in the ten-year and that means we're up serve. we settled at 166 and the two-day chart puts everything in perpective and you can see how the market reacted and 165,000 was much better than the negative whisper numbers that i was hearing in this trading floor and keep in mind with the revisions that had people's jobs dropping and if you averaged the first quarter non-farm headlines and you are up 205,000 and sequentially 165 is as good as it was and it slips below that sequence and we want to keep

that in mind to stay hooked to reality here. if you look at the boon, the exact same pattern. boon popped up 589:30 eastern just like we did and if you open that chart up for a year, you can see a similar pattern to arch going back to these. granted, they were flirting yesterday. as a matter of fact, they weren't flirting. they got the kiss and they were at all-time historic low yields at 116. they popped up in the low 120s. we want to pay close attention here. just like in november, traders did very well. they think we're in a range and we touched the bottom, but bob hit on it. my favorite chart today is the dax. look at the intraday chart. i think when all stimulus around the world whether it's from bank of japan or the u.s., it's all fungible. it all prompts the same assets and i think that's clear when an overseas stock looks exactly like the response in the u.s. marketplace. back to you. >> okay. thank you so much, rick.

yes, the turn in europe, i think becoming self-evident. do not give up on rbs and it's real. let's check outside the latest with the metals. let's go to sharon epperson at the nymex. >> that report caught everyone by surprise. it's truly a game changer especially with the upper revisions that we saw as rick mentioned and you add to that what we saw from the ecb and that issa i reason why we are looking at higher prices for oil right now with brent crude leading the way up more than a dollar. gold had hit a three-week high in the overnight session. 14 an ounce was the high of the session and it gave up the gains as the jobs report came out and now it's in negative territory. the big winner as everyone mentioned in the market reports has been copper. copper up nearly 6%. it's the largest gain we've seen since last june and if we close above this level it will be the largest gain since october of 2011 and this was a very short

market and continues to be a short market and a lot of copper traders caught off guard with the jobs report as well as the ecb data and the oversold market and that's what we're seeing right now in copper. back to you. >> thanks very much, sharon epperson. >> take a look at shares of hess this morning and we've been detailing the fight that's been going on for elliott. hess has nominated five directors for the board. it held a town hall meeting earlier this week and kind of a staged event and nonetheless, i want to garner support for those nominees and i get a report from iss, the influential proxy reform and they say we are in favor of all five of those nominees. so they have that to add to a number of other proxy firms that one came out in favor as well, jim. may 16th is the meeting here. for his part john hess has been out meeting with a lot of his

investors. we will see where this ends up, but it is a pitch battle as we hear the traders applauding. something fell or somebody dropped something. >> i think that hess, when you go through some of the things that they're saying in their letter. they have botched a lot of where there's great oil. they have not been able to develop. there are places like the eagleford in texas where they would tell you, you can put a straw in the ground and bring up a lot of oil. elliott raises a good point that they haven't done well in eagleford. amerada hess was the first into the pocket. they haven't done well in the pocket. that said, they sure are trying right now and it just may not be fast enough. >> well, we'll see. of course, the future of that company and to a certain extent of the balance if they lose all five of those nominees.

a all right. i guess we're out of time. i'll go over to you, carl. >> we'll talk to the chief economist john hatzius. what's his state of the economy? also ahead, charlie munger. stay tuned for the interview with the vice chairman ahead of their meeting as becky and andrew will be in omaha. take a look at this morning's early movers. the jobs report is out. april non-farm payrolls increase by 165,000 jobs. were you able to nail the number? if so, you'll be the winner of the cnbc water bottle signed by the entire "squawk on the street" gang. find out if it's you later this morning. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.

omnipotent of opportunity. you know how to mix business... with business. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. and go. you can even take a full-size or above. and still pay the mid-size price. i could get used to this. [ male announcer ] yes, you could business pro. yes, you could. go national. go like a pro. the do is within 22 points of 15,000 upon. every single component is in the green, the worst pf her forming

components have the best yield, guys. altria at 4.8, at&t at 4.8. >> that's what we want to see, carl. they've had a big rally and we need to see money flow in to some of these big dow stocks that have done nothing. 4.8. if you're on a fixed income where you're getting toward retire am, 4.8. you want to cut your risk. >> they're not going to sell that stock. i'm just saying new money comes in in other places. they're not going to cut that dividend. it won't. i don't think it will go down, but i think you want to see money go into cat and dupont. >> does this make you wonder why the fed said this week that they wouldn't rule out increasing their purchases, much less decreasing them? >> i think that they they're in the hot seat because these numbers are very good, but at the same time it's a phony hot seat because if we get job growth, you know what? don't care as much about the

stock market as you care about jobs. do you remember what ben bernanke said? he said, having a job is more person. so i'm with bernanke. many dow 17,000 doesn't happen, butty woo give people jobs and the country is stronger. >> indeed. >> here's what's next on "squawk on the street." ♪ ♪ coming up, we've got a six and we've got a 60, put them together and you get jim cramer. six stocks in 60 seconds. it will make sense when "squawk on the street" returns.

>> here is a chart of the dow industrials. we crossed 14,000 and that was the lowest level in six years. from february 1st am now, what is that? a couple of months and change, we're talking closer to 15,000, jim. >> this is the 1990s. this is what it was like in the 1990s. you would come in and you would have these big up days and say, you know what? this market is so powerful. this is a very powerful market. >> let's do "six in 60." valero. this is underperforming and

credit suisse says it's a refining spread. don't short the stocks. >> the blackberry 10 is doing okay. >> i thought this was a shocker, because i don't think anyone thinks that's doing okay. maybe there's something there and it's not expensive. >> downgrade of lulu. >> the quality control is an issue and i will take another side of this. christine davis is doing it for real. >> adt, credit suisse. our charitable trust owns this and morgan stanley put a sell on it here and that's ridiculous. it's a housing play and it's an alarm company, i don't know how the heck it went down here. >> zag. i recommended a sell on zag. they make apple's swag. i didn't know what i wassing to a year ago. you're taller than i am. can you show where zag is? >> finally, 3d systems. >> staples picked them up.

one of the big favorites at home, frankly, is the 3d printing and staples pecked them up and i kind of like it. >> we went over and that's okay. what's on "mad" tonight. >> we're doing a game plan. normally i don't put -- when i do game plan i don't have time to be able to talk about the market entirely. i've got to. this is the 90s. carl, this is when people made a lot of money in the stock market. >> have a good weekend. >> good cinco dimaio. >> something for everybody in the program. >> jan hatzius will be here from goldman sachs to talk about the employment report and bob lutz here with a book out with how really good leaders are mentally and emotionally askew. that's next hour on "squawk on the street." i'm only in my 60's...

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the street." we are looking for down 3% last month. it was also shaved from an original release of 3% now stands at up 1.9. april ism, non-manufacturing, 53.1. we're expecting 54.

that is the lightest number going back to july of 2012. so july of last year, 53.1. we must look at the internals. we touched 170 in ten-year and much of that, the better than expected non-farm jobs report. back to you, carl. >> thanks so much. rick santelli bringing us one more data point after the big one this morning. let's get a quick check on the market on the jobs number. strong gains across the board. the s&p is up 16. dow is within a stone's throw or so from 15,000 although we've lost a little steam here this morning. we are, by the way, at all-time intraday highs on the dow, on the s&p, on the midcap and the russell as well. >> this morning's employment report and people are still digging into that and finding out exactly what it means and

steve liesman is at the s&p. >> the ism services, and not terrible, still at 53 and that was the story that was also in the jobs report. factory orders were a mess and everything was negative, except ships and boats were up for some reason and everything else was a rebound. it was a sigh of relief rather than suggesting a sign of tremendous strength in the jobs numbers. payroll's at 165. the forecast officially was 148, but as we've reported, a bunch of economists have brought their forecasts down. i think market expectations were lower hence the relief rally here. a lot stronger and the unemployment rate coming in better than expected and 7 1/2 hourly earnings right in target with the positive revisions, adding almost a full month of payroll in february and march. here's some of the commentary. john ryding saying it should provide something of an anecdote for the story of 2013.

>> dan greenhouse saying the economy is not doing nearly as bad as some believed. ian shepardson at pantheon. never thought i would cheer a moderate 165,000 gain in non-farm payrolls. that says it all. here's where the jobs were. construction was down 6,000 and that's a bit at odds with the adp numbers. manufacturing, unchanged and services is strong at 185 and it's interesting to get the services component and ism did okay. retail, a nice bounceback and temporary help, a sign of things to come and there's the perennial losses in government and the prior month was minus 16 and now it's minus 11. i want to show you how the jobs outlook has changed and before today's number, the three-month average was 163 and that was including the official forecast for this month and now 211,000 and that's quite a bit better and included the decline in hours worked and that will result in the lowering of forecast for growth if the second quarter as a rise in

those working part-time for t a strong enough overall jobs number in my opinion to aerlt the stance and not weak enough to prompt an increase in help for the economy. david? >> all right, stuff. thanks very much. steve liesman. the market is greeting this data fairly well this morning. the s&p is hitting a new all-time high and breaking through the 1600 mark and that is the first time it's done that ever. the dow is also inching closer and closer to that 15,000 level, although backing off. let's bring in cnbc contributor joe lavorgna and chad morganlander, portfolio manager with steeple. has today's number changed your approach to the equity market at all? >> we've seen a gradual improvement with the economy and albeit, at a glacial kind of pace. we are focused now on earnings as well as the liquidity wave that has come court southeast bank of japan, the ecb, and of

course, the federal reserve. so we are moderately neutral on the market and somewhat balanced and we would be advising investors to move up the quality spectrum that the point in time. >> joe, give me your take on what this says about the broader economy. >> it says the economy is a lot better than we thought. the six-month rate of change is 208. that's a good number. we're still probably understating job growth. we've revised growth up 21 of the last 27 months and the upward revision is 68,000. if we look at housing and think we're at a turning point as housing tells us. it would be normal for all of us to miss employment as well as gdp. for example, in '92 it was below 5%. after revision every quarter was above 4%. can you imagine if we printed those numbers in real time? this speaks to the incredible, preliminary nature of these figures. >> which means what?

you pretty much ignore them and look at unit figures and look at things that don't get revised a lot and they've seen a tremendous drop in claim as we thought they would following the 1/4.r holiday and as we see the fed will not do anything in perpetuity. >> go ahead, sorry. >> i tend to disagree with that. okay, the federal reserve will continue to do quantitative easing until we're in a self-sustaining recovery of which we are far from it. we're at this inflexion point that when you look at private payrolls. we're at about 113 million americans that are actually working. things seem a little bit different because the fact is that 2010 or 2002, rather, we're at 110 million private payroll people that were unemployed so we really have to see this get up and go within the economy of

which we haven't seen as of yet. >> i have no problem with what chad said. there's still a tremendous amount of people that aren't working. the problem is when it feels good to everybody and it's obvious because the unemployment rate is back to 5% and the use six of broader measures back to 7.5%. the equities are 2500 s&p. that's the problem. >> what you need to have happen for that to occur is you need to r revenue growth within the corporate revenue growth as well as profitability and when you look at year over year, apparently, we're negative revenue growth. actually 80% of s&p companies have reported and we're about half a percent down year over year and earnings, the ebulent earnings story that everyone's talking about is year over year around 4%. >> having said that we'll be at 1700 by year-end stocks next year because that's what happens in a mid-year cycle. so all of that stuff makes sense, but earnings multiples expand and the stocks will go

higher. >> that's great, but you will need to see the baton pass from the liquidity-drawn rally that has created this artificial pricing of many markets within the financial system to more of an earnings and economics-driven rally of which we are barely there. >> that's not always the case. >> no, look, where is the inflation? it's in bond yields. it's not in stocks. >> multiples are not high based on revenues and they're not high based on where interest rates are. margins are high so equities are going to continue to benefit from the fact that they're the best price asset class. >> until rates start go up. don't forget how much of this have been fueled by purchases. >> how many cycles have we had where stocks go down on a sustained basis because rates go long. >> this isn't a normal cycle. they're never normal and they weren't normal in '94 and not normal in '76.

you had a big inflation issue and this is what my colleague has been saying and he's spot-on with it. >> you sound like a sell tore me and not a buyer. >> we are more neutral and what we're doing is we're moving up the quality spectrum on the equity side and on the fixed income side we are bringing down our duration and again, looking at where we can get a good return. so high yield is no longer high yield. it's slow yield and yields right now are around 630. you're not getting paid well for taking on the risk. so you just want to be more careful at this point. >> sounds like a lot of bulls, joe. >> it's comforting. you don't like the park, but we're not sure. >> we lovesick lickals and love financials and love technology and yes, it will be feignful, david when the fed reverses. >> you don't sell them until the cycle is over. that's the key point. >> the defensive rally, is that over? i would say largely, yes.

>> on the high yield defensive name that have led us so far this year. spreads are not unusually look tight. >> they're not unusually tight, but to chad's point and % and that's not a took good credit anymore. it's incredible. >> look at default rates, david, until they're not, but the reality is default rates are extraordinarily low now, but as they start to edge higher when you go into an ebb and flow of the economy then, you know, perhaps you want to look somewhere else. in our shop what we're doing looking at companies that are growing profitable in a consistent manner and you want to look at sectors of technology to see scenes of opportunity. >> you both picked technology. >> keep an eye on the -- >> that's the last two weeks have been doing well. >> joe, chad, thanks to you both. good conversation. >> thanks for having us.

>> when we come back, bob lutz, someone who has done a lot of hiring in his day. we'll get his take on the april employment number and goldman's chief economist, jan hatzius will join us at post 9. and find out if this upside surprise can be a long-term positive for the market. the jobs report is out. >> april non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000 jobs. >> were you able to nail the number? if so, you'll be the winner of the cnbc water bottle signed by the entire squawk on the street gang. find out if it's you later this morning. to make their money do more. (ann) to help me plan my next move, i take scottrade's free, in-branch seminars... plus, their live webinars. i use daily market commentary to improve my strategy. and my local scottrade office guides my learning every step of the way. because they know i don't trade like everybody.

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strong jobs number, in case you missed it, both february and march revised higher. dow's up 154. the question is is this a sign of a real turn in our economy? bob lutz is former gm, vice chair and cnbc contributor and the author of a new book "icons and idiots" in which bob minces no words and pulls no punches and we'll talk about that in a minute, but it's great to have you. good morning. >> good morning. good to be here. i want to get your take on the jobs number. it comes on the heels of the

auto sales which we were talking about yesterday and it's funny how the results on pickups at ford and others sort of dove tailed right into what we got this morning. what was your take? >> i actually -- in one of your early emails we said the sales numbers look good and the economy doesn't and that was before the numbers came out, but it is the view, i think, of most commits in the car business and all of the detailed data there looking at all of the leading indicators that the economy is improving and that consumer confidence is up and that people are in the mood to buy durable goods and so i think for those of us who follow it it closely it comes as no surprise and i think it will continue improving gradually and i think all of us like a gradual improvement far better than we do sharp spikes followed by drops. >> how does it -- how does it put into perspective, the isms and the durables and some of the

manufacturing data that has not impressed lately? >> you never know with manufacturing. sometimes it's capacity shortfalls like in the car business. there's a number of areas where capacity is shorter and so forth, and in the car business it also depends on fleet deliveries, but by and large the manufacturing sector in the united states is in better shape than it's been in years and that will continue as long as we don't get an overly weak japanese yen. if we get an overly weak japanese yen, american manufacturing is in trouble again. >> bob, let's talk about the book. "icons and idiots," the basic premise is the most successful leaders are mentally and emotionally askew because they're impatient, stubborn, opinionated and domineering and that is why they're successful. >> i would point out, strong leadership personalities are

rarely nice, well-balanced, calm, reasonable people. they're always slightly off the wall, and you have to take the good with the bad and when i say, cons and idiots and i don't mean some are icons and some are idiots. i think every strong leader is probably a little bit of both and if he or she weren't slightly unbalanced like that they probably wouldn't be doing the job for the shareholders. i think people will enjoy the book. it's very funny and it teaches good leadership lessons. >> in the meantime, does it mean you will never get a really successful leader as president because they won't get through the political process? >> that's exactly the point. that's why when you get really strong leaders they don't come up through the democratic process. they're -- and they can be strong on the good side or on the negative side as we've seen in a number of dictator, but dictators are never normal

people and they never could have been elected. you see the same thing in corporations with people like steve jobs, with who -- if he hadn't been the founder he never would have been ceo of apple. >> bob, part of your message, the book is called "icons and idiots." a lot of people can probably relate to the latter part of that title, meaning they've worked with people they don't necessarily respect. they don't think belong at the company, your point is you can learn a lot from those types. >> yes. some of the most valuable lessons in my life were learned from people they least liked to work for. >> in what way? >> well, for instance, paying it forward. he was irrational a lot of times. he would beat on me for no reason and he would demean me in public for my spend thrift ways, but i did learn how to control automotive investment and cost much better than i would have if

i hadn't gone through the sort of boot camp that he put me through. >> where are you on ralph mason? i see the title of his chapter is the trouble with being a tea totaler is wake up at 8:00 a.m. in the morning. you realize that your day is only going to get worse from here. >> you'll never feel any better than you do at 8:30 in the morning. ralph was what i call a cheerful alcoholic, and he was a product of a bygone era when there was a lot of hard drinking in the automobile industry. i'm talking the '60s and early '70s, and he was absent from work a lot. he left at 4:30 in the afternoon to go home and get plastered, but he had a good team and he n a way, he was a hugely successful leader. drove great results at opal while doing absolutely nothing and delegating it all to this excellent team that he had. so you can say, was he an

ineffective leader? probably. were the results there? yes, they were. so he actually got a promotion out of his tenure at opal. bob. we always love talking to you. congratulations on the book and thanks for the insight on manufacturing and jobs. >> sure. thanks very much. >> bob lutz. still ahead on the program, who better to sort through today's employment data than goldman's chief economist jan hatzius. heel join us live at post 9 for an exclusive interview. >> first, is the positive job surprise, actually a negative for president obama. we'll bring youen sight from washington after the break. oh, boy. [ groans ] ♪

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we just hit 15,000 on the dow and a cheer went up on the floor and it was muted, but we could hear it. >> now we're at 1499.31, but we

did cross that 15 -- i like to see those euros. it never hurts. all right. the april jobs number, it blew past estimates. so what does that blowout number mean for the white house and the president's bargaining power. let's bring in -- hold on. got to give you the graphic first. >> it's the animation. dow at an all-time high. >> i got ahead of ourselves. >> i like that graphic. it just keeps going. let's bring in cnbc's chief washington correspondent john harwood for a look at what this does mean for the president's ability to bend people to his will will. something he doesn't seem to have had a particularly good run with lately, john? >> no, he hasn't david, but i have to tell you the president's going like this job number an awful lot. in fact, so much he's privately singing a little bit of that al green tune that you were just playing as we came in from the break. look, any president any time wants a high stock market and they want low unemployment and

they want high job creation so that's good. the question is can he translate that into more juice with congress and i'm skeptical that he can. yes, everybody recognizes that this is good news for the economy and the prospect of another spring swoon which has disappointed us the last several years may be fading and it may not upon that, but the president's also trying to convince congress to do a budget deal and to do an immigration deal and gun legislation and those things move on separate tracks and the positive economy may be republicans saying hey, what's wrong with the sequester? it's not hurting the economy like you predicted it would. the administration has answers to that, but i'm not sure this fundamentally changes the dynamic between the president who is a democrat and a republican in congress. >> how about congress regarding

policy and to sort of meet in the middle no matter what it is? >> i was talking to senior administration officials yesterday afternoon about their hopes for restarting a grand bargain discussion, something that would involve some tax increases and entitlement cuts to replace the sequester and i would say the level of optimism in the room was not overwhelming. what you got from these administration officials was we're trying -- we're building some trust. we think we're building some trust in private conversations with republicans especially in the senate, but is that going to be enough to get 60-plus votes in the senate for some sort of alternative in the sequester and then get the thousand go along? everybody is pretty chasened by the fallures of the last couple of years and if they get wind in their sales sails from good economic news. >> if the president seemed to be dancing around with glee, doesn't he risk disconnecting

himself from what might be his natural supporters? many people in america will be more focused on the fact there are still 21.5 million people unemployed or underemployed. 13% of the population. let's not get ahead of ourselves with just one month in excess of 100,000 jobs being created. it's broadly irrelevant which is why there's no change on the unemployment rate. >> you're exactly right, simon. and you're not going to see the president dancing with glee and public. if he's celebrating it will be in private, but the administration always says if the news is bad or good, as we continue the arc of this slow recovery, you can't put too much stock in the movement from one month to the next and you see it's positive, but it's not dramatically or rapidly positive. >> john, thank you. >> john harwood in washington, this morning. >> let's have a quick look at

where we are on the markets. it's interesting. within the dow as we crossed 15,000 and we traded around that and it's now the main line caterpillar, 3m and general electric are the companies making gains. so it's the cyclical element to the market and it's the materials element to the market and alcoa is doing reasonably well and all stocks, 29 stocks of the dow 30 are higher. one is flat, but it is a relatively broad-based rally in the wake of the employment report that we've had this morning. so as we said earlier. i think by steve liesman, more of a sigh of relief for certain than anything else, but continuing to make gains. >> take a look at commodity, as well. copper enjoying an amazing day. up more than 6% earlier in the session and that's the best day in about a year and a half. a lot of the short squeeze happening among some of the industrial metals. there's a look at crude oil, gold, copper. as you can see, 5.5% and natural gas the only loser today. >> still ahead.

a big day on "squawk on the street." we'll hear from charlie munger, as he and buffett and the gang gear up for tomorrow's shareholder meeting and you see him making his way to post 9 right now, goldman's chief economist jan hatzius will weigh in on the number heard all around the world. 165k. we'll get jan's response in just a moment. about insurance.ke you r because what you don't know can hurt you. what if you didn't know that boxes by the curb... make you a target for thieves? or that dog bites account for a third of all home liability claims? what if you didn't know that one in seven drivers is uninsured? and that grease fires have to be smothered? the more you know, the better you can plan for whats ahead. get smarter about your insurance. ♪ we are farmers bum - pa - dum, bum - bum - bum - bum ♪ governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline.

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breaking news this moment, a

few moments ago, the dow crossing 16,000. 165,000 jobs created in april, far surpassing the 135,000 that was consensus or so. unemployment nudging down to 7.5. joining us exclusively is jan hatzius, the chief economist at goldman sachs. he joins us here at post 9. good to have you in this morning. good morning. >> nice to be here. most important question, do you believe the number? is it going to be revised dramatically? do people -- should we be putting trust in data which can be squirrely. i think you have to be cautious in enter prettying any individual number, but if you look at the broad report it was good. the april jobs number was good and you had big upward revisions and household survey for once also showed a genuine drop in the unemployment rate and that hasn't always been the case and the unemployment rate has been coming down and a lot of that has been participation in the

past and that wasn't the case in this one report. >> others pointed out it was in line with the revision trend which hasn't always been the case. so as numbers go, this was closer to clean. >> this is pretty much what you see is what you get, i think. yes. >> should we pause and worry about where the job growth is coming from? >> two-thirds of the 98,000 is from short staff and temporary help. is it okay for the economy to be creating jobs where basically we're serving each other drinks or selling each other stuff that someone else has made? >> you do want to look at the composition of job growth and a lot of that does seem to have come in, you know, lower-wage occupations. on the other hand, if you look at the average hourly earnings number it was up 0.2% and that was roughly in line with the trend. so from that perspective, you are not seeing a particular sort of composition-induced weakness here and i would also say that the headline numbers are already

pretty noisy. once you get down to the individual sectors, you have to worry about month to month noise that might be telling you that month. >> let me allow to tell you on manufacturing and construction and neither of which actually gained any employment. for the talk that we hear about the housing recovery over the last six months and apparently from the figures we've only created 152,000 jobs. that is relatively feeble given the headlines that we're getting. >> that is relatively slow. two things. one things are that we are on net over the last couple of months getting a negative effect in march and arguable ney april, as well. the other thing is that there is usually a pretty long lag between improvement in activity and then increases in employment. that was true in the other direction as well in 2006 and 2007. housing construction was starting to fall in 2006 and 2007, but it took a really long time before it showed up in the

jobs number. >> let me pick up the point that employment is a lagging indicator. if the survey data is indicating that we may be decelerating and it is in two or three or four months' time. >> i do think it's possible. i do think that the overall numbers if we look not just at today's report, but in general what's come out over the last couple of months suggests pretty muted growth. we're only track the 1.5 to 2% range in the second quarter and maybe 2% in the third quarter and that's not really the sort of environment we'd expect really big job gain. so some deceleration wouldn't be very surprising. has the impact of the sequester been felt already or do we have to keep that in mind for future periods. >> i think we have to keep that in mind and that's a factor for the gdp numbers and the impact of the sequester hasn't really shown up to a significant degree.

we had a drop in federal employment, but federal government employment and it was only 8,000, 4,000 of which was the post office. >> it can work its point other ways and the department expense expendz itchures may be laying off people and it may be harder to see that. >> there's something in the private sector, as well, i would agree, but i don't think we've seen quite as much as we and i think many others would have expected at this point. i would have expected to see more of an impact, but i think that will come in subsequent months and it hasn't shown substantially, yet. >> with the revisions to the jobs number in february and march, does gdp get up to two and a half? is it revised higher? not directly. there's no direct implication and, you know, it might make you expect that things might have been a touch stronger than you would have thought, but there's no direct implications and i wouldn't expect that. >> does it alter the conversation at the fomc or not? >> i think what they did on

wednesday was to carve out more flexibility to move in either direction on the pace of qe, and that is something that they probably wanted anyway. i don't think they wanted to send a strong signal that an increase in the qe pace was imminent, but whatever low probability you would have put on an increase in the qe pace was reduced further. >> that's an important signal to the market. they were acknowledging that the bigger picture here, today not withstanding is weak data and a possible slowing economy. >> it's still softer than it was a couple of months ago, for sure. yes. >> what's going to change that? >> we'll see less of a drag from the fiscal policy. the sequester, the impact there willic. up in the short term, but i don't think that will do it a year from now. that's the next few months and the lag negative effects of the payroll tax hike which we're

probably still seeing in the data that should wane as well and once you get into late 2013 into 2014, i think you will see a pickup in growth. >> the government is the one that has put the brakes on. and that is the main story in 2013 that the headline numbers still look pretty muted, but underneath the surface the private sector is improving quite a lot, but i don't think that's really going to show up in the headline gdp numbers in a more significant way until next year. >> get the government out of the way as some like to say. >> it's great seeing you as always. >> jan hatzius. >> we're still hanging on to 15,000 on the dow which we've broken for the first time today in the wake of that far better-than-expected jobs number. as we showed you the dow breaking 15,000, treasurys and gold are sinking. art cashin drops by to tell us how to play this surprise heard across the street.

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welcome back to wall street and the triple-digit gains that we are witnessing. the dow climbing above 15,000 now. as a result 169,000 jobs being created g to the employment report in april and an upward revision of 114,000 for the two months before. here to sort it out with us to work through where we trade from here, art cashin, ubs director of floor trading. good morning. >> impress sfd. >> i am quite impressed. >> most of us in the trading community were caught flat footed and we were looking at the purchasing regional manager reports and things of that type. even things like the philly fed and others. none of them predicted anything like this and then adp threw everybody a little bit off. this number is very good and i was impresseded with the fact

that the average workweek, decreased slightly. that may mean that after months and months of pushing people to work overtime to avoid hiring they've cut back a little bit on that over time and now we're actually hiring people and that would be a good long-term sign. >> what does dow 15,000 bean for the future? >> i think 15,000 is a bit psychological. the fact that they were able to take the s&p through the 1600 and you can see by the violent spring that they took that there was short covering and algorithms built in there. people who had been fighting this rally all of the way through that said, okay, i'm going to throw in my cards if we get through 1600. >> we are up 1.3% on the s&p and this is a broad-based rally. no doubt about it. is it as empressive as you said the jobs number was? >> i think so. if you think back a little bit,

david, we've had on occasion some surprisingly good payroll numbers in come. you get a rather quick rally and then they start to fade. this one's kind of building on itself because of the underinvestment and it's also building on itself with the new money coming in. so we'll be able to see, but you can see the shorts in a variety of assets so badly based. >> look at what's going on in copper. >> everybody -- the world is slowing down. >> the 18-month low and the 18-month low. >> it turned into an absolute rocket shot. >> when is hot too hot here, art? >> we were talking about blowing through 1570 and that is a bull market often november lows. >> i know, and it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy again because people have been so either underinvested or lightly invested. we've been talking about the

rally has been defensive and it's dividend-paying stocks and a lot of people are stuck underperforming and now are scrambling to get returns. >> i can make one heretick comment before i let you go. and the payroll number is a signal to trade and if it's above expectations you buy the market. if it's below expectations you sell it and a lot of people, not you and a lot of people back fill the justification for where we are regardless of where the actual state of the economy is and some people might say 167,000 is not good jobs growth and may have not propelled us this far. i would agree and one number as you pointed out these are not the greatest jobs in the world, you know? but people are going back to work and it's a good sign and it is more the surprise than the actual economic weight and that's got traders off base and you're seeing a greater reaction in the trading community than you may be seeing in the

economy. >> the weekend is almost upon us, art. >> yes. the weekend is almost upon us. >> cinco de mayo. there might be a lot of diversions and the kentucky derby. >> indeed. >> tulips and margaritas. >> sounds good to me. i'm outta here. >> thank you. >> up next, rick santelli sounds off on today's jobs report and becky quick talks about the right hand man, charlie munger. i work for 47 different companies. well, technically i work for one. that company, the united states postal service® works for thousands of home businesses. because at usps.com® you can pay, print and have your packages picked up for free. i can even drop off free boxes. i wear a lot of hats. well, technically i wear one. the u.s. postal service®, no business too small.

there were some cheers on the trading floor here. rick santelli, when we hit 15,000 we are holding just above that. let's go to the santelli exchange for this. >> thanks, carl. indeed, 15,000, i remember when we were flirting around the 13,600 level on our way to 14,000 and i said i'm sure we'll see 15,000. i'm sure we'll see 16, and i think higher. it really does bring us to the epicenter of the point of the last santelli exchange of the week and that is we have the economy and we have markets, and believe me, i understand that many of you that tune in to cnbc

are interested and follow the economy, but it really is about the markets. it's about p & l, profit and loss. it isn't that you're looking for a certain type of the national economy, domestic economy, or global economy, it's not about what you think the fed ought to do, what you think the administration ought to do. it's about the real world. the only issue with that, of course, is that as we've learned from europe, there was a huge response to our data. now 165,000 -- i had 144 and i was the second highest on the group this morning. it was better than expected. no doubt. but consider several things. we had a huge swing, huge swing on household survey and huge revisions. makes me nervous. 205,0 205,000-ish is the average of the first quarter. and sequentially that is a bit

lower. so anybody who is talking about correlation -- you know, stimulus from many central banks is having the same effect. let's get back to the other often ignored aspect of the economy. simon hobbs said a wonderful thing this morning. he said he doesn't know how the president is going to celebrate the better than expected good data because many in his base are not necessarily involved in the positives. so this is probably why the president doesn't go out and say wow, this is a great stock market, there's a lot of issues going on here. yesterday we had technical problems. we had the founder of nanex. i want to play a piece we did when we had some technical

difficulties. >> we needy versety of precipitation. when all you have are machines that are lightning fast, you have to allow other participants to have an opportunity to buy the market when it's down 10%. a lot of people didn't have enough information to be involved. >> very significant interview. i urge all viewers and listeners to go to cnbc.com and watch. his conclusions are significantly different than the sec conclusions. we need to pay a lot of attention to the inner workings of the coequity markings. >> thank you for the shoutout. coming up, charlie munger. it's a big buffett weekend here on cnbc. find out his thoughts on the

markets and wait until you hear what he has to say about bankers.

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thensome. bob pisani is on the the floor of the new york stock exchange watching it all. bob? >> we just keep hitting records here. put up the s&p 500 for the last year and i'll show you what's going on. we passed 1,400 on november 23rd. we've been there before, of course. then we passed 1500. that was january 24th. now remember, every 100 points more is a little further away, and so it's a little bit less resistance to get up there. now we're in the new record territory. 1600 passing that on the s&p. 500 as you can see. here's what i like. the laggards are catching up. it's been very worrisome to see what happened in april. you don't want to see that happening. now we're seeing the transports starting to catch up. also a down month in the month

of april as well. that, too is now starting to outperform the markets. the sectors are starting to pick up there. that's a clear indication. thinking of the sectors, if you take a look today, the trend all this week has been industrials, materials, energies, financial, consumer discretionary. now we're seeing real notable moods to the upside. and for the week, real outperformance in all of these sectors. so we're getting real outperformance in the area that matters. this was a bit of an embarrassment. this report. the street was positioned very short on this. and when it blew out, not just the numbers but the revision blew out, it had a move heard around the world.

the dax in germany moved 100 points on this. that's one and a quarter percent. germany moved one and a quarter perce percent. you see here today the effects of the united states. carl, back to you. >> yeah, i think it's amazing that we're sitting at these lofty record levels. it feels like there's very little cheer around the data and those talking about it point out how modest the number is to generate that change. >> i think there will be huge relief. the concern was the whole world was about to turn back. the united states is still the engine of growth. shift the momentum that it's definitely growing and you get a reaction. >> and we talk about it all the time with regards to mma, the cap decisions. the long-term calls the ceos

have to make. and we do have some sense onto how things are going on the corporate level. the best of it. but it can affect psychology. and that does go a long way. >> yeah. of course, you probably know by now the number on jobs, 165. added in april. did you nail the number. this week we asked you to tweet us your predictions for payroll. our staff is going through all of the entries. one lucky person will receive this. you can thank us later. that is huge. >> got to stay hydrated. >> autographed by the "squawk on the street" gang. we'll announce the winner later in the show. when water is a scarce resource

in 50 years you're going to wish you nailed the number for april. we'll all no longer be on the planet. >> guys, have a great weekend. >> you, too. >> david, happy cince de mayo. >> thank you. you, too. >> if you're just joining us, here's what you missed. >> welcome to hour three of "squawk on the street." here's what you missed so far. >> it moves forward, but not rapidly. the unemployment rate is 7.5%. >> i do suspect this is an

unreliable figure versus what we know. what a sales force would give you. >> we have buffett on twitter as of yesterday. >> the pope. >> the pope has a lot of characters. he's sticking with that. he is. he does not get 240. the same act of characters as the rest of us. >> the s&p 500 has hit 1600. a new all time high. hold on. got to give you the animation. >> dow at an all time high. >> you had big upward revisions. the household survey showed a genuine drop in the unemployment rate. >> good friday morning. and it is a good one.

we're live here at the new york stock exchange on a day where the dough has hit 15,000. s&p above 1600 for the first time. at 1,617. the nasdaq trying to play catchup here. boeing, microsoft, multiyear highs. one of those few stocks not participating in the rally is linkedin. the shares falling 9%. they did post a surge in profit by a weaker than expected revenue outlook. we will be hearing from charlie munger, the vice president of berkshire hathaway. in the meantime t executive vice president of cls bank. also with us is managing

director and research at lazar capital markets. happy friday to you both. let me talk markets quickly here. it seems like a tough spot to buy. maybe there's a con trarn view i'm missing. >> yeah, i think the view you're missing is we have a consensus call for pullback, which we don't seem to get. the more time we try to line up and pull back, whether the italian electionsr cyprus or a string of bad economic data from lackluster earnings report season. we get that, too, with 53% pullback. low and behold, we shifted focus last week to this week. so we won't to this micro focus honor. of the macro we got 80% of them right. the ecb did what we thought it should do. they could have rolled this thing over. they surprised us to the upside.

>> so you think as far as weeks go, you think it was a game changer of a week? >> it's going to be the first time we put two weeks together in a row to the upside. it certainly breaks the trend. so that's the good news. we're going to be out of earnings season. so earnings season is virtually over. the macro is very quiet. so that's just our focus. sometimes it goes to things that are not so good. we may look at the slowing of the euro zone. germany slowing down. how close to the german elections look? or china. that could change sentiment right now. for those looking for a pullback, we are trying to give a pullback. it hasn't worked. that tells us this is not going to work. we're going continue this higher. >> interesting. that debate is getting answered

quickly. here is just your view on the data today. how clean the number was. what your revisions say about the broader economy. >> it's a recession. where are we? the last three years monthly payroll is 160,000. so we're on track for fwrout. we don't have to worry about a pullback or recession. so you know, the market likes that. they're like, okay, we're not going to get a slowdown. it's time to have a good time. >> why did the fed give themselves leeway? >> a couple of reasons. one, we have had the last three years the mid-year slowdown.

even within this report the participation rate stayed weak weak. the workweek declined a little bit. and later on at 10:00 we had secondary data, which was not so positive. the underlining manufacturing data is not lining up. they are not convinced that we are out of the woods. even this data is only consistent with 2%. >> the market looked at the word increase and worried the policy may double down. you don't think that's necessarily a huge risk right now? >> let put it this way. in the last few weeks you had the bank of japan doubling the qe program. you had the ecb cutting rates. you had the fead saying, look, if you need to, we'll do more. they are responding to the stimulus of the central banks. >> and the point art just made as well. do you feel like as an investor

who is long in equities, like a frog in boiling water? i mean, you just, you know this is going to end badly. but you don't know exactly when that moment will be, and the trick is going to be popping out of the pot before it boils. >> right, that's everybody's question. i think 100% of the clients that we talk to, one of the things present on their mind is what does the end of monetary policy look like? that's where we get the most help from the feds right now. they could increase or decrease the amount of purchases that that ir doing. we like to see what exactly it is that they're thinking about. and when they talk about pulling interest rates back up, how gradual is that process going to be. the punch bowl doesn't have to be jerked away from the table.

it could be a slow gradual move with an increasing pace of economic growth. as we sort of look at that, we need to shift the perception. it's actually going to be a positive. >> can you go there? >> i hope that they can do the exit as cleanly as art sort of implies. i have my doubts as to whether it will be that neat. we have never gone in where balance sheets are going to compress as much as they are. it's not just $2 trillion of compression from the fed. but you'll get come prex in the other central banks at the same time, or similar times. and let's hope that the economy date will sort of tolerate that kind of withdrawal. >> do you think that -- go ahead. >> i was just going to say, near term, a lot of people are

watching rotation today as cramer said this morning. out of pepsi. into dow. on the trade, certainly. you've seen that perform for the last four months. is it time for the trade? that's more of an airline trade. i wouldn't give up on the defensive names, especially consumer staples. the gap between the defensive sectors is still very wide. there's plenty of time for that rotation to happen. is it high fives? are they just as worried as we all are? >> i'm sure it's mixed. in pun spot getting geared for higher assets. on the other hand, is it

overdone? >> that's the question we're all asking even as we set the new levels. thank you so much. we're kicking off another hour here. thank you so much. josh lipton is back at headquarters looking at how we got here. >> the dow has crossed 15,000 and the s&p 500. a new high today crossing 1600 for the first time ever. let's review what sectors powered us to new historic level. while the s&p 500 is not quite up 20% since the november lows, five of the sectors in the s&p 500 are already in bull market territories. financial, health care, utilities and consumer staples all up now more than 20%. what's interesting is the sector shift we have seen recently as dan greenhouse points out. and before today the s&p 500 grained some 3%. what's been the best performing sectors?

well, the very sectors that have lagged since the morning low. specifically the surge tech. very clearly related to apple's turnaround. accounting for some 10% of the overall s&p 500 points added over the time plan. another sector showing a shift is energy. a laggard as there was nervousness about the economy. crude oil, which in mid-april had fallen. now oil has bounced back to 95. no surprise. big oil has bounced since mid-april. exxon and chevron. if investors believe the economy will get better and the fed will remain engaged, then it makes sense to move out of defensives and into sensible corners of the market. does that trend continue? greenhouse believes the trend still has legs. >> josh, thank you so much.

he speaks seldomly, but when he does, he makes big news. we'll get his insights on trading and surprising thoughts on bankers. first up, rick santelli has his own take on the job numbers. >> i do. we'll discuss all the market movements and jeff carter, our guest, we're going to talk about the currencies. look at what the yen has done in the last hour. all this and more in about ten minutes. [ laughter ] ♪ [ female announcer ] each one of us is our own boss. ♪ and no matter where you are in life, ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪

dow is hanging onto its gains up 171. take a look at tech outperforming as it really has all week long. we'll take a deeper look at the tech sector later in the show. meanwhile, a very rare interview, warren buffett's right hand man, becky, we understand that he had some insights on trading and bankers. it's great to see you. great show this morning. >> thank you, carl. it's great to see you. you're right. every year it seems charlie takes on one group or another. he always speaks freely and openly. this year is no exception. last year i think it was the gold traders he took on. the year before that it was the accountants. and he looked back to cyprus, what's happened in europe, and he says this is a great example of bankers gone wild.

>> cyprus demonstrates an old truth. you can't trust bankers to govern themselves. a banker is allowed to borrow money at "x" and loan it out at x plus y. what happened in cyprus is very similar to what happened in iceland. it was stark raving mad in both cases. and the bankers, they would be doing even more if hay hadn't blown up. i do not think you can trust bankers to control themselves. they're line heroin addicts. >> he also targets the high frequency traders. monday is the two-year

anniversary of the flash crash. when it comes to high frequency traders, that's another story. >> a long-term investor is not with the crash. that's sad. it's very stupid to allow a system to evolve. people trying to get information. now ahead of somebody else. and it's legalized front running. i don't think it shoifb allowed to reach the size that it did. i now see people are starting to talk about cutting it back. we should we pay a group of people? >> a very good question. we talked to him about it.

he admits you can't put the genie back in the bottle with this. he said an ounce of cure is with a pound of prevention. charlie said ben franklin didn't have it right. he said it's worth 100 pounds of cure. it's interesting to be sitting down with a long-term trader on a day when the markets finally pushed back to new highs with the dow above 15,000 and s&p above 1600. i asked him what he thought about that and the jobs number out there. he says he doesn't pay a lot of attention to the markers on the way. he had awfully interesting long-term thoughts. we are going to talk about what he thinks about what the federal reserve is doing and how he looks at allen green span versus ben bernanke. >> i can't describe to you what that reaction is getting on twitter right now. it's hard to put into

perspective. we know he has the reputation for being cantankerous. i'm wondering if you heard him say on bankers or trading, anything like what he told you today. it feels like he could say whatever he wants. i don't think he thought about what he will keep on things. he has opinions out there ruffling feathers. >> it definitely sets the stage for the weekend. wrour yoing to have a lot of fun. you can't miss that. we'll talk to you soon. becky quick. here's a look at the markets coming off the highs here. just below 15,000 on the dow. if you're keeping track. bull market from the november

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let's get to rick santelli. >> chanks, carl. we have jeff here with us. what ru you going to be writing on your blog today? >>. >> i think it was a really good number. the interesting thing we were talking about before came on camera is the reaction to europe. that is counter intuitive to what every trader believes. >> just to bring the viewers up to date, we saw the euro moving much higher. and anything on the yen cross

trade was doing dramatically better against the yen. that is odd. >> it should go the other way. because of the data and the ecb. and it's very interesting. the revision is what really sparked the market. we haven't seen it in gdp growth. i think john taylor had a great piece where he showed if growth curve, what it is, and what it could be with better policy. i don't think we have the most efficient economic policy right now. so we have a lot of deadweight loss in the economy. >> okay. so what you're saying is we have some good things going on. but really we are trying to look at cost benefit. is policymaking a better issue to some things we see? what is your answer? >> to be snarky.

we could say sequestration, more government spending, more jobs. this is a good thing. >> we don't need to be snarky. the crisis was in the fall of '08. a boat load of time has passed. >> it has. >> let's be frank here. we are always the cleanest shirt in the dirtiest laupdry. our economy is better than everybody else's. it would happen more without policy. >> it would happen sooner. the american policy is diverse. we're seeing the effects of that. >> you were telling me about something on a job scene that has nothing to do with policy. it may be going on because of policy. >> corporations are not higherring. they're hiring consultants. >> the consultants show up in the household survey. so if you go to a space like the

coupe in chicago or nextspace.us in california. indpebt workers are starting to form pods thatwork on projects and going from project to project to project and working gig to gig to gig. and i think that's very interesting going forward. so it's gone from 800 to 3 #,000 in the united states. no longer are corporations are going to be the lion's share of employment 10, 15 years from now, it's going to be independent workers doing things. >> and seeing this co-op developing. seeing small businesses try to get traction, my newest saying is the only thing worse than bad regulation is unfinished bad regulation.

maybe in the next 20 years while they work on deaf anythings, why don't they give a break to the new co-ops. >> the trouble is when you start to delineate, you're picking winners and losers. >> stop me now. my last guest of the week. back to you. >> that's the way to end a week. when we come back, my bell is in europe. we'll talk about the rally as it continues here with the dow up 154. [ male announcer ] with free package pickup from the united states postal service a small jam maker can ship like a big business. just go online to pay, print and have your packages picked up for free. we'll do the rest. ♪

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closing for not just the session, but the week. and what a week it's been. >> certainly. and the sig of relief over the jobs figure is really very much evidence in western europe. a very strong short covering rally on the realization perhaps that the american economy will continue to grow and still drive everybody else. it leads the cycle. this is very important for many people in the market. and take a look at the session charts on the three most important stock markets. you can see as the data came through the way in which they bolted higher. yes, it's a broad based move.

but you see it particularly in those areas that were heavily shorted. they sell an awful lot of stuff in the united states. if the u.s. economy is going to keep growing, then they're obviously going to do well. they really went higher. there you go. continental up with 67%. porsche doing well. also the miners as you get short covering on copper. a lot of them are spefbly. yesterday the ecb president seemed to be suggested they could cut the deposit rate of the ecb below zero. in other words, you have to pay to keep money on load of the ecb that would force it into the economy.

suggesting the comments from yesterday at the moment are not relevant. >> the markets overinterpret this point. of course. there's all this technical discussion about it. but there's no plan in that direction. >> so the jobs number has halted the rally that we had in europe. still it's been phenomenal. this is a five-year trap. look at the way in which we have fallen on the yields here. the price of course, moves down. >> we can hope this affects the weather somewhere else. thanks a lot, simon. let's get on the phone howard is

a senior index analyst and can put today's rally into some place else. it's good to have you. welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> so this s&p, 13 years? >> 13 years. it's taken a long time. we're just back to where we were. back 13 years ago. so we want to hold and see if we can consolidate and hire. >> how is this feeling to you in terms of historical parallels. we moe what came shortly after that. the sales are bad. we are seeing people coming back into the market. they are chasing returns and we have seen that with their positions. so those are positive items for

the short term. >> equity in-flows, howard. i think i saw this morning something like 17 straight weeks of material, significant in-flows into equities. i wonder if you think today's data puts a tail wind on top of that, if we start to get retail precipitation from mom and pops who thinks it is returns. >> most importantly. the increase moved the market. and now we're continuing to have gains. and they are chasing returns. it's good that they're going into the market. it could be they are chasing the returns. but definitely the dow at 15,000 helps bring these people in and money back to the market. pushing symptoms up.

>> people were asking the question where resistance was. traders down here were using the melt up term again. is it obvious to you where we start to run into head winds? people mentioning 1624 as an official bull market. >> well, it's a technical 1640. could be some items on there. it depends how much we can hold today and monday. as it works its way through. we don't have to close at the high. as a matter of fact, on the dow we could dip below the 15,000. depending how the close goes. holding it around here. >> and in terms of all the major, is there one that is the truest? >> obviously i'm biased. # so it's the broad market that

is participating. and that's what we need to see to keep institutions holding their positions and moving up. >> like a good salesman. always good to have you. have a good weekend. >> you, too. thanks. >> let's bring in bob pisani here. >> he is a great guy. but the broad market is participating and the public is still holding back. we need a couple of quarters when they open the quarterly statements. bond funds are down big. that's not happening right now. april, bond funds were up. we're going to have a long way to go. we hit back on november 23rd. it took us two months to get to 1500. that was january 24th.

we are being led this week and really the last week as well as today by these names. materials, energy, financials, all have been moving up this week. and i think we have the whole week here. it's essentially what we are seeing today here. they are at a 52-week high. they've been unsung hero. they have a very good earnings report so far in this quarter here. elsewhere, building materials have been strong today. masco is sitting up at a 52-week high. those are really nice moves. you don't usually see those moves up in the building material group. so the question here, carl, is can we do anymore with the rally? can we go anywhere further? let me show you, we are at record earnings for this quarter. i know everybody is cynical. everybody thinks the fed is

backstopping everything. let's keep everything the same. 15 multiples, where we are on the s&p 500. $110 is the current consensus for 2013 earnings. so there's a lot of people that feel that we can still do a little bit better here. everybody says there's only two things. the fed and everybody is skeptical. i know we have to go. the momentum, housing we've got. we have the oil and gas boom. less fiscal drag here. it's not totally negative all the time. it's not nothing but the fed behind everything. >> you're right, you're right. people want to paint it with a broad brush. the earnings squad is standing by ready to tell us how to profit from the results today. and later on, both google and microsoft hitting new highs as the sector continues to participate here. is this the best way to invest

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and welcome, everybody, to the earnings squad where we dissect the earnings everybody is talking about and what you may have missed. i'm filling in for melissa lee today. i am joined by earnings squad regulars. they know the drill.

you can teach me what to do. first up, here's the scorecard. with 81% of the s&p 500 companies having reported so far, 68% have beat their targets. 10% met estimates. 21% have come in below forecast. that is your score card. they are trading higher after beating wall street estimates with the seventh straight quarter they are raising the full year sales estimates which has been gaining market share. also moving to the sownside today. sounds good, right? but it came in below expectations. the company also cut revenue outlook for the year. now while the markets are hitting new highs, there is just one big loser in the s&p 500. only one, and the dubious honor goes to teradata. they're coming in well below

consensus, customers are holding back large purchases. some analysts are question iing after a private miss. >> all you really need to do on the company is take a look at long-term chart of the sales growth and the margins. this past quarter both of them not just slower but literally off a cliff. they can have the entire rarngment. it does all sorts of business intelligence. they have a lot of competition going on. they talk about the u.s. not being really good. they say economically sensitive market conditions have transactions. you have to wonder whether other types of competition, including the cloud is starting to just get in there, confuse customers, as they try to figure out where they're going to put the dollars next. is that a bad indicator for the

macro economy. >> here we have the jobs numbers. that's where we're getting these contrast contrasts. >> shares are rallying this morning despite a significant earnings miss. it's a miss. yet the stock is rallying. >> i think it's a medium to long-term story. it's the only liquefied natural gas players that has the license to start exporting lng, which costs two, three times as much as it does here overseas. right nowut$4. $10 or 15 in places like europe and china. this is not in the s&p 500 but if it were it would easily be in the top ten. maybe top five. it's up 50% year to date despite a miss that's remarkable. did you see this? >> i look at the trend in the numbers again. totally going the wrong way. >> loss of 46 cents. versus expectations of 20 cents.

and they had a loss on the revenue side, too. and they're spending a lot. it's going to be a lot of time. 2014 or 2017 before the processes come online. >> so investing for the long term. >> but they're the only ones. only one other company is close to doing this. >> and huge demand from companies like india. i know it's a big business. >> absolutely. china, too. >> china, too. yesterday on earnings squad herb told us to watch temprapedic. north american sales fell 16 fkt. the stock is lower on the news. what in this report stands out to you. this is all you need to know. now we are becoming just another mattress company. this is a change company going

forward. it will not be the same old tempurpedic. >> is there any problem in the mattress industry? i believe the rival company, select comfort came out with lower than expected earnings? >> look, this is a big progress earnings. >> absolutely. a lot of them have it. look, we'll see the story. smart people on the stock. >> it's not like, oh, i feel like a mattress, i'll just go and get one. absolutely. and if you want to join the conversation, you can. you can tweet us at #earningsquad. the squad and i will be back with more during street signs at 2:00 to 3:00 p.m. eastern. see you then. also next, we'll head out to the floor to see what traders are saying. we're back after a quick break. what if you didn't know that weeping willows have invasive roots? what if you didn't know that a trampoline... could affect your liability?

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♪ it is a big day, and coming up next on the half, we're trading today's history making market in realtime with an a-list lineup, and we have the stocks you should be buying or selling right now. paul richards on why it's time to let the good times roll and it's one of this year's hottest etfs. can it keep on rallying. >> all right, scott, as you

said, we did make history. the dow is hitting record levels. peter costa, the president of empire execution. and warren myers, the vp of floor operations for guys, happy friday. >> thank you. >> there is a bit of a cheer, matthe matthew, right? >> it wasn't as big as when we hit 10,000 but it's a start. the most exciting part is i won a cheeseburger when it hit 15,000. he had called that one right. >> how are the shorts feeling today? >> definitely getting squeezed here a little bit. i'd like to see a little more volume. that would indicate to me that we may have a further push to do. volume is a little light. obviously all of it's to the buy side. >> characterize the health of the rally? >> it's not unexpected. i think we still have more room on the upside. the biggest thing that happened today is we got to bring out the 15,000 hats. >> yes. >> that was about the -- that was the applause we got and matt's cheeseburger. other than those two things, you

know, i still think there is room on the upside. i still think we have 15, 700. >> you can't argue. it's hard to argue that sentiment is frothy here, right? am i wrong? >> i can't argue that you're wrong. but when you look at what's going on and what's been going on in the last few months, you have a fed that is holding zero interest policy. not just here but central banks around the world. they're forcing money into the risk assets. u.s. market seems to be ahead of all other equity markets. so the money is being forced into this direction. when you look at, you know, levels of, you know, where we are today versus '07, '06, we're still conservative. is it frothy? a little bit. as peter said, there is upside room here. >> want to show -- i don't know which camera wants to take it. this is "usa today" this morning. reaches a big broad audience. is easy money a risky mirage?

this notion that this is all sort of -- we've been plugged into alternate reality because of the combination from central banks not just the fed, all around the world. >> it's funny. you talk to people out there and they were worried about what they were going to do after they retired in 2008 and 2009. they weren't able to. they didn't have the money. they're not selling yet. maybe they're not buying yet. but they're not selling their portfolio. so it's going to be interesting die nam toik see if mom and pop take us to the next level here. we haven't been really buying into this down here. >> peter, let me try to argue a moment ago that may happen but not until you're penalized for income fixed income. it has not been extraordinarily painful. >> no, not yet. i think that when you start looking at the gains you've missed here, then you are getting penalized. you're not following in and making money where you could have, had you been here from the start or from at least midway. >> warren, does that message get across or not? >> a little bit. the thing that i'm really looking at most is the amount of money and the amount of effort that the feds put in and the

lack of really fiscal help that they've been getting. they're going to be extremely conservative before they start tightening. everyone talks maybe it's coming in a few months, i think you push that back. they don't want to tighten too soon. they have to have a strong economy to sustain it. i think that's going to continue to push this money into the equity markets. that's why i t you still have upside potential. >> interesting. again, you put the government policy thing in there. sort of like hitting the brake and the accelerator together. and some of the more bullish economists argue that back half of the year you get a little less sequestration. maybe things look brighten up just a touch. >> that's definitely how i feel. i'm not some trained economist. i just think the second half of the year has got a potential to be a very, very good year. not only for the market but i think for the economy as well. you know, we've seen the housing market rebound very nicely. i mean, you know, unemployment is going to be sticky situation going forward probably for the auto yearme.

it's hard to reduce that much significant unemployment quickly. i think we're making head way. i think that consumer confidence, even though it's taken a hit the last couple months, i think it's fairly good. >> so there will be some margaritas and mint juleps this weekend? >> absolutely. >> i don't even need to ask. >> thanks a lot, matthew, peter, and warren. coming up, the moment you've all been waiting for. >> the jobs report is out. april, nonfarm pay rolls increase by 165,000 jobs. >> were you able to nail the number? if so, you'll be the winner of the cnbc water battle. find out if it's you next.

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one of our recent squawk breakthroughs was from lending club announced a 125 million investment from google. the deal values the start-up at over $1.5 billion, that is prompting speculation the company is readying for an ipo. the ceo joined us here in march and spoke about lending club's outlook for going public. >> i think it's in the future. it's interesting.

many private companies are pushed to go public by investors. in our case it's really our customers that are telling us they would love -- they're very passionate about the service and would love to be associated with growth of the company. >> that is a big investment and a big valuation. congratulations to them. we asked you to tweet us your guesses again this month for the nonfarm payroll number. after sorting through entries, one person did get closest to 165,000 with a guess of 164,500. our winner is doug buckley of brooklyn, new york. he joins us on the news line this morning. congratulations to you. you may not have nailed the number but you got as close as you could possibly get. >> yeah, thanks, carl, for tracking me down. i took an optimistic number. i figured that myself and all the law school graduates this year need some quality jobs in the market. >> you are an economy major at gw. you're now a third year law student. i understand you actually are

obviously in the middle of the finals and even realizing that you did win this today, took some time this morning. >> it did. i was actually in the basement of my library building studying for finals. so i didn't see it until i came up for air for lunch. >> anything in particular led you to such a hot number? did you look at claims? was it more of a shot in the dark? >> it was more of a shot in the dark about, you know, 20% to 30% above what people had been talking about for the last week. just, you know, trying to be optimistic. >> amazing how sometimes going again the grain has paid off in the past few months, especially on a number like. this you've won a couple of awards including one from the american bankruptcy institute, one of the awards they give to law students. what's your -- what do you hope your future is in finance? >> well, i actually love bankruptcy because it deals with finance. i'll be doing a one year cheshgship next year for judge craig in the houston district of

new york, bankruptcy court. and after that, i hope to practice in bankruptcy law. >> congratulations on that. hopefully bankruptcy business isn't too good for you. in terms of the economy. but we appreciate your time and, of course, we'll send that you water bottle. thanks again. >> thanks a lot, carl. i'm going to go follow warren buffett now. >> all right. we'll see you later. that does it for us here on this friday. let's get to the halftime back at hq. >> carl, thanks so much. welcome to the halftime show with four hour to go until the close. here's where we stand on a day where the dow reached 15,000 for the first time ever. we're now less than .5% of stocks officially entering bull market territory. that being a 20% gain from the november lows. take a look at the s&p