points, and the s&p 500 down by about 6 points. one of the highlights in the extended hours, priceline. check it out, the stock down about 3%. as you can see there on the heels of those earnings we told you about earlier in the show, this stock, $715 a share on priceline. that'll do it for us on "closing bell." thanks for being with me. i'll see you tomorrow. "fast money" begins right now. stay with cnbc. live from the nasdaq marketsite in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. here's what "fast" is following tonight. hold gold for one of the biggest gold bulls on the street to one of the biggest bears. the investor who timed gold perfectly reveals the metal's next move. face-o face-off. almost one year after facebook went public can anything send the stock back to its ipo price. our traders square off and settle the score on this battleground name. and land grab. a deeper dive into an under the radar play on housing recovery and the ways you can get in on the action. we're tackling the post-game analysis and setup for tomorrow with dan nathan, brian kelly, karen finerman, guy adami, and

mike kuo. but first straight our top story and that is the yen pain trade. the u.s. dollar trading above 100 yen for the first time in more than four years. but what was more troubling was the reaction in the market today, beaks. >> it was actually very interesting. in the past we've seen yen weakness means the stock market goes up. everything's great. it's the only pair, currency pair -- >> yen weakness, dollar strength in the markets. >> exactly. and you've seen some algorithms trade this way. you can see it intraday. but today when the yen broke through, the dollar-yen rate broke through 100, you saw everything fall apart. the bond market fell apart. stock market fell apart. commodities started to fall part. and a lot of the other currencies fell apart, even australian dollar, which is big commodity. while this day looked not that interesting on the internals of what happened, it was incredibly interesting because a lot of the correlations have changed today. >> and thin you layer in there is some chatter about some "wall street journal" article that may or may not come out and ended up not coming out about the

possibility of q.e. ending a little soon sxwrefrks there is some fed chatter from plosser. >> and that added to what beaks was talking about. clearly, that gets floated in and out. i think that's one of the overhangs here, but to beaks' point, if you were telling me that dollar-yen was going to go through 100 today, what do you think the s&p's going to do, i'd say given the track record it's going to be up another ten handles today, and it wasn't. now, i guess the good news is a couple things. it held 1622, which was yesterday's low, so technically it didn't have an outside day. but something you should look for tomorrow, and i'm not saying it's getting there, but 1614 now, given today that we made a new 52 -- a new all-time high on the s&p. 1614 in the s&p becomes the line in the sand it has to defend tomorrow in order for this week the bull run to still be intact. >> those are really interesting points. you're talking about some of these risk assets moving around a lot. if you go back to mid last month what did we see? remember when gold broke down the way it did and the s&p started moving around a little bit, realized volatility started picking up a little bit? i would make the argument that up here this rally is obviously getting fairly well extended. we haven't had a whole -- i

think i read something today, the dow jones industrial average hasn't had three skoengtive down days -- okay, this is the longest streak since like the 1950s or something. things are getting a little overdone here and we're at highs, we had this intraday reversal. if you're a trader and you're trying to be one of these guys trying to pick a top, you want to see a lot of volatility, and you want to see an intraday reversal like we had today. if we get some follow-through, it could be the start of something. >> does it get you concerned when you see some of these historical correlations breaking down here as markets are near records? >> i want to go back to the plosser thing for one second, which i thought was interesting. you know, it's not going to be a shock to anyone that one day q.e., whatever, will be tapered off. yet right now we're sort of in that goldilox where we want modest growth but not enough to have them pull the punchbowl away. and oh, my god, what will happen if they actually do? won't that be on the heels of better economic data? but you know what? everyone's in for the party, if they sate party's over, that actually gives me a little bit of concern. we saw that brief sell-off after those comments today. even though it's not going to be until 2014 at the earliest.

>> right. let's get more on the end breakdown today, bring in rebecca patterson, the cio of bessemer trust. good to have you. good to sigh as always. when we're talking about the short yen trade, everybody and their cab driver and their brother and their mother are in on this trade and we take a look at the people who have recently said on cnbc, some of these so-called heavy hitters who say they remain short yen. we're talking about dan loeb today, of third point. david einhorn is short the yen. even mark cuban says that he converted every penny of personal debt in the mavericks debt into a yen loan back in december and he's enjoying the trade. at this point how much of this weakness is driven by these shorts? >> they're definitely playing a role and an increasing role, but i'm kind of in the same boat with them. look, prime minister abe has put his reputation, his political career on the line. he has said that he's going to bank of japan in two years' time and doubling the monetary base of japan is his way to get there. if he fails, he's done.

so the bank of japan and the prime minister of japan, they're in it to win it, and they are going to try to keep this yen weakness going. so there are steps that have to happen, and the market will get technically crowded, short-term we'll get little pullbacks. i think the longer-term trend here for the yen is intact. i mean, short term we'll look at 105, 105.30 as a technical level, but i don't think we're done by a long shot. especially if global growth is okay. so we have trade flows and sentiment that are also supportive of a weaker yen. >> hey, rebecca, i'm curious, one of the things that concerns me and kyle bass is the one who talks about this is the japanese bond market. we saw tremendous volatility about a month ago. does that keep you up at night? does that change your view on perhaps being in the nikkei or dxj as a trade? >> no, it's definitely something to keep an eye on. obviously, if japan succeeds with its mission and they create inflation and interest rates rise, japan's debt to gdp ratio is so high, the interest payments on that debt are so large that they cannot afford

interest rates to rise much. that's kyle bass's primary theory behind this. but if you look at where japanese bonds are today, i think the ten-year yield today was less than 60 basis points, whereas the dividend yield on japanese stocks is about 200 basis points. so longer-term structural worry, absolutely, this keeps me up at night. for the next couple of months, maybe even the next few quarters, i think we've still got some room to run. >> all right, rebecca, we're going to leave it there. thanks so much for joining us. always nice to see you. rebecca patterson of bessemer trust. i do want to buttonhole this conversation, guy, in terms of we've been talking about the exporters specifically you've been talking about toyota motor because for every about 1% depreciation in the yen, it means about a 1% appreciation in operating profits. >> $100 a car i think somebody said. and again, i would have thought toyota would have had a positive -- understanding the tape was negative, i still thought tm would have been up, and it actually was down most of the day, even when i think the tape was positive. so there are a lot of cross-currents here. i'm not ready to bail out on toyota yet. i'm not saying the markets --

the correction is upon us. but you know, you've got to take what the market gives you. and again, tomorrow's level's going to be interesting. if yen rallies, dollar-yen rallies and toyota weakens, again, maybe we'll see some decoupling. >> the dollar holding on to 15,000 as the bull run continues. should you be worried about the meltup? let's bring in ed yardeni. nice to see pu. >> thank you very much. >> what did you make of this yen move and does this factor into your markets view right now? >> not really. when i look at the market i do it real simple. with the arithmetic of p/e times e. the valuation multiple for the s&p 500 is actually back to where it was right before greece blew up. so i think the markets just concluded we're not going to have a lehman-style meltdown in europe. so i'm looking not just at what the market's reacting to but what the market no longer really pays that much attention to. and i think the fact that everybody's relaxing on europe is a very big deal. look, developments in japan i

guess could have an impact on the market short-term. but overall i think the u.s. economy matters more. >> do you have to factor in a view on whether or not we've seen rates -- we've seen rates trough because that could affect obviously the multiple? >> yeah. >> so how do you factor that in? >> well, look, bond yields are almost too low. i mean, if you just looked at the bond market you'd say that the valuation multiples should be much higher. but low bond yields -- i've actually had a lot of people nervous that something's wrong with the global economy. so i think having some backup in interest rates, as long as it's gradual and not something shocking would be a good thing. but i don't really expect that. i think central bankers, as you folks were talking, are kind of committed to keeping the liquidity pouring into the marketplace. and that's really what's driving liquidity. so as long as we don't have that meltdown fear i think there's a potential for the multiple to continue to go up 37. >> it's interesting the way you

talked about europe, i would agree people are relaxed in europe. but are they relaxed for the right reasons? i just think they're relaxed. i don't think anything's been solved yet. >> oh, no, absolutely right. what i meant is for the past three years or so there's been a concern that we're just going to have a financial meltdown in europe very similar to what happened with lehman in the united states. when mario draggi at the end of july last year said he'll do whatever it takes, that was amazingly impactful on just kind of calming everybody's nerves. but it's still a mess. they haven't cleaned it up. >> europe's still a mess. systemic rhys sak off the table in europe like you jft said. but what about emerging markets? when you think back to what took us out 6 our malaise in '08-09, it was the global growth reflation. when you look at brazil and china and these equity markets they can't rally. what are they telling us? >> i think it's telling us the kind of global boom is over. but i don't say a global bust. he with may continue to mulled along like this. >> so what are u.s. equities discounting here? >> i think what it means is a super cycle of commodities is

over already. i guess it wasn't so super after all. it lasted basically a decade or so. but these emerging economies have problems. one of the big problems is they've lost an important market, growing market, and that's europe. i think europe is a big deal. it's weighing global growth. and these emerging markets, they try and make a transition from export-led growth to domestic-led growth. not so easy. >> last quick question, ed. in this sort of environment what's the best sector to hide out in? >> well, it's -- the expression hide out is actually sort of relevant here. we were just talking about emerging economies. a lot of them have all sorts of issues. i think the u.s. is the safe haven. i think the u.s. is a good place to continue to invest. and i have no problems with continuing to have a fully invested position in the market in the u.s. >> all right. ed, thanks so much for joining us. >> sure. >> we really appreciate it. ed yardeni of yardeni research. where do you stand on this rally? what we saw today particularly

with the correlations. >> right. you know i've been bearish for a while now and wrong since 1552. as i look at it, the only thing that continues to be strong is the u.s. housing and jobs market here, and we actually saw that this morning with jobless claims. so today the market told you, hey, we might actually care, negatively care about the market coming in if the fed starts to take away some of this liquidity. i'm not ready to say i'm going to put the bear suit on and be short again, but it's notable today, especially the bond market. the bond market scared me today. i would have thought it would have gone up. >> we've got some breaking news here. we want to check in with tyler mathisen at the breaking news desk at headquarters. tyler? >> thank you very much. on a sad note one of the great journalists in financial journalism has died. alan ableson, the long-time, 57-year employee of the weekly newspaper "barron's" has passed away. he was there for 57 years. he died at the age of 87. he was one of the witty and great writers of all the people who have covered wall street over all the years.

ed finn, the current president and editor there, was interviewed by mr. abelson for his job, and he describes that moment as one of the great highlights of his life. and they will be dedicating much of "barron's" to the memory this week of alan abelson, who has passed away at the age of 87. folks, back to you. >> thank you very much, tooler. a true loss. our thoughts and prayers are with alan's family as well as all of the "barron's" staff. oh, he's a fighter alright. since aflac is helping with his expenses while he can't work, he can focus on his recovery. he doesn't have to worry so much about his mortgage, groceries, or even gas bills. kick! kick... feel it! feel it! feel it! nice work! ♪ you got it! you got it! yes! aflac's gonna help take care of his expenses. and us...we're gonna get him back in fighting shape. ♪ [ male announcer ] see what's happening behind the scenes at ducktherapy.com.

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welcome back to "fast money." i'm josh lipton. priceline slipping now in the after hours. revenue of 1.3 billion versus estimates of 1.28 billion. earnings per share, 5.76 versus the 5.27 expected. gross bookings up 36%. company talking about the hotel business and international bookings growth of 43%. but looking ahead, the company also talked about economic uncertainty and intense competition in the online travel sector. as for guidance now, the company sees second quarter eps of 8.87 to 9.45. the street was looking for 9.58. that stock down about 3% right now in the after hours.

melissa, back to you. >> all right. thank you, josh lipton. terrible guidance, all sorts of excuses in terms of competitive pressures, the environment. did we see this move coming? >> well, possibly. expedia reported last quarter. they had some issues overseas. priceline is very exposed to overseas. but here's a company that believe it or not just because it's got that $700 handle on it it's actually a very reasonably priced company. so when you have a stock like this that was trading within just a couple percent of the all-time highs, giving cautious guidance if you're long this thing, that's okay in a way. you want this thing to settle down. i don't think you want to see it break out and become, you know, with the market at highs, a stock at all-time highs it becomes a little dicey. >> we want to get to our top four trades here, especially on this very interesting market day where of course we saw the yen break 100. so karen, what was your top trade? >> same as yesterday, actually buying some puts for protection. for us looking at some mid-cap puts. and i want to hold on to the things that i'm long like a lot of other people, but i need some additional protection. >> guy? >> there's a name in the nat gas space i've been watching for a while, it's done nothing for now, about a year, year and a

half it's been may pretty significant down trend. but apache after that earnings call finally looks like it might have broken out a bit. this is going to either work really well or work really poorly. but i think if we can stay above this 81 level it seems like it broke a down trend. i like apa here. >> dan nathan. >> yeah. as a trader i want to catch a reversal, and today's intraday reversal on maybe some news, maybe not, who knows why -- you know, to me the setup into friday was kind of interesting. i brought some spy weekly puts trying to catch a move back to guy's level, 1600. does that make sense, guy? >> it makes a lot of sense. dan has made cogent and just excellent points all night. only 17 minutes in. >> wow. >> he should stop now. >> beakers. >> guy talked about natural gas. dan talked about reversal days. you saw one today. natural gas. i bought natural gas. you can do it through ung. over last couple weeks we've seen a 12% decrease in natural gas due to weather, due to storage reports, storage being higher than expected. today's storage was higher than

expected, but the market reversed. i love those days. i think it's a great place to be in natural gas here. >> let's move on here. he was the largest holder of the ishares gold trust etf and then he sold his position entirely, the decision coming in february just as gold prices were sinking. let's find out what steve kukero, wind haven chief investment officer is doing today following the day's very interesting reversal in gold trading. it's gra g. to have you with us. >> very nice to be here. >> first of all, what did you see coming back in february to make you sell out of your gold position? >> actually, going back to july of 2012 we began to reduce our max overweight position in gold as we saw investor behavioral factors in our model turn sharply negative. the idea that short-term speculators would begin to lose patience with the lack of new highs in gold. we began to sell our position. the rest of it in february. we completely eliminated our overweight position in gold by then. >> just to be clear, you had a big position in gold. how big was it? the eighth largest holder of the gld in 2012. that's what we're talking about.

so this is a big position here. >> so for us maximum overweight was 13% of our diversified aggressive portfolio. altogether we're managing $17 billion. so we had a lot of gold. we were maximum overweight gold for most of the last ten years. going back to when alan greenspan drove interest rates down below the rate of inflation after the tech stock bubble burst. so it was one of the few times we're not maximum overweight gold. >> so aside from looking at what investors or speculators are doing in gold, when if ever do you think we will see hedging return? >> so we think the fundamentals can still be constructive depending on what happens over the next few months. we still have negative real interest rates. we measure that by looking at the ten-year treasury yield, subtracting expected inflation which is running about 2.3%. we still have a favorable backdrop or fundamental condition. but behaviorally we're still at our minimum weighting. we're still waiting for further sell-off to lower levels before we would consider getting back in. but at that time if the fundamentals turn negative then

we're staying at our -- >> i mean when will gold producers look to hedge? >> so gold producers, i think that gold producers are in a situation where they have so underperformed the gold bullion for so long that they might be waiting for the next rally and might decide that they've missed the downturn. >> i think karen makes a great point because if you look at the miners, i mean, those stocks have -- as you just said, even with the rally in the s&p and the rally in gold they've completely underperformed. so i ask you, a lot of people think the gold move is entirely over. you're clearly not in that camp. but it's not a price you're looking for necessarily. it's a number of metrics. is there any one specifically you're looking for to get back in this thing? >> as far as investor behavior goes, if we see a continued sell-off down to perhaps the low 1300s or below and at that time we still have negative real interest rates, we think that might be a good opportunity to get back into gold. >> what about -- part of the thesis in gold, obviously, you

mentioned it, alan greenspan cutting rates, ben bernanke printing as much money as needed. today there were some rumors and chatter about perhaps that ending. how did you react to that today? >> right now we're still holding our minimum position. i think that getting the gold market coming down early before the big downturn was the idea of the fed talking about exit strategy. it's still a ways off. but they're talking about it. that got people nervous in the gold market. we don't know yet if we find that money velocity is so weak that we might find deflationary pressures instead of inflationary pressures. and then the fed might have to ramp up their q.e. it's too early to tell. but if they do start to minimize the q.e., they just start to work off that 85 billion a month lower and lower, then we might see the real interest rates start to come back in the line and then gold won't be attract again for some time. >> we focus mostly on gold but you actually invest through lots of other things through etfs. what is your largest position? what area of the market are you

most excited about right now? >> so our largest position, our biggest overweight that we entered very early this year is long japanese exporters and short the japanese yen. so a day like today was another good day for us. and of all the 40 different global asset classes that we analyze in the markets, that has been the best formula year to date. >> so the person at home is thinking that's the traud i want to do. and you're doing this through etfs. which ones are you using? >> that is correct. and my compliance officer will be very proud to tell me i can't talk specifically about tickers. but there are etfs that -- more than one that are long japanese companies and short the yen. >> and at what point are you going to get not scared but are you going to be tempted to take this trade off? >> right now it's done so well that i think for very short-term trade you've got to expect some kind of a correction. that the rate of rise has been a tremendous rally. but we think this has legs. we think the bank of japan is in the early stages of easing. the g-20 gave the green light

for the yen to go down. as long as they don't talk about it as a currency debasement. as long as they talk about it as building the economy of japan, japanese have a situation where the demographics are poor, it's a battleship that's going to take a long time to turn around before they get to 2% inflation. so we think this has legs. >> steve, thanks so much for coming by. we hope ewe come by again soon. >> thank you very much. >> a strong dollar hitting mining stocks. commodities king dennis gartman will break down the situation. but first traders dan nath sxn guy adami face off over america's most popular social network. the gloves are coming off. straight ahead. >> "fast money" means trading. everybody's got to bring their best information each and every night. the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. >> it's idea generation. it's all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. as the world has changed, our show has evolved. i am guy adami. i am "fast money." >> i am pete najarian.

i am "fast money." >> are you "fast money"? go to the nbc universal store and order your "fast money" tee. run with the big dogs. all stations come over to mission a for a final go. this is for real this time. step seven point two one two. verify and lock. command is locked.

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shares of facebook popping today after top investor lee cooperman compared the social network to a key tech giant. here's what he said. >> we think that people are underestimating the mobility opportunity that exists in facebook. and so we think ultimately they can achieve a market cap comparable to a google, which would make the stock very, very rewarding. a little more speculative, higher multiple in the kind of things normally involved. but we think there's a lot of wind to their back. >> all right. guy is our bull, dan's our bear. you've got a total of 90 seconds to make both cases. so guy, kick it off. >> my monochromatic friend to my left dan is going to make some interesting arguments. but i'm going to make the intelligent and the correct one. so if you look at the quarter they just reported, operating margins much better than the street was expecting. that's a positive for facebook. everybody's killing them on the mobile side. guess what? monthly mobile users were up 54%. that's a pretty big number year

over year. and the last one, lee just made the argument for him. i don't think it's going to get a google type valuation or google-type -- >> market cap. >> market cap. thank you. >> yep. >> but i do think this has some room to run. the problem is i thought given that quarter and given how far the stock got sold off it was going to rally along with the tape. it didn't do that. but i think a lot of people say you know what? we don't like zuckerberg, i think they're using that against the stock. i think that dog's going to stop -- >> i actually don't. i actually think at some point very soon zuckerberg's going to be a massive failure. i think we're going to see an eric schmidt sort of guy there because this company is going to be left adrift. here's a company, the stock in particular has massively underperformed the market. it's massively underperformed its peers. you know, it's got 1.75 billion shares outstanding. who is the incremental buyer? almost everybody who owns this stock is underwater. and when you talk about the quarter, you know, these guys have, if you look out as far as sales growth, it's decelerating. this is a much more mature

company than a lot of people would think for a company that just ipoed a year ago. for me i don't see an incremental buyer. i don't like the technical setup. i think the product stinkds and it's going to continue to get rse.you talk about that mobile growth. i think people are going to be very annoyed to have all these ads on that little screen. i don't like it here. >> all right. and you know, to dan's point here, brian kelly, if you take a look at the intraday chart here, yes it got a pop when lee cooperman made those remarks but it didn't hold that pop into the close. >> this is a stock that can't get out of its own way since the ipo. before the earnings i made the point that this company has to come up with something new, something fantastic, and they just haven't. so while i generally like polychromes, i have to go with the guy who's channeling regis this evening. dan wins. >> tone on tone is always so attractive and fitting. karen, what do you see? >> facebook has always been too expensive for me. i like google p pi think you get a lot of the same phenomenon at the better valuation. >> it's like ali-frazier.

>> mike kuo weigh in. >> i lost already. >> i've got to go with dan on this one. first of all, let's take a look at the subscriber growth. the subscriber growth has been slowing. ing and of course they are picking some people up in mobile. you'd expect that as people who use them on their desk are now going to use them on their handheld. but i think this is a little bit of a trend, a bit of a fad. i wouldn't compare them actually with google. i think of the services, i use google forwhat whether it is search, whether it is e-mail, and whether it is their drive, for example, their cloud services. no one's going to be using facebook for those things. so i definitely don't see that. plus the stock just trades so heavy. >> all right. well, i think dan's never going to take this combination off, the purple on purple combination off because it's his lucky day. we do want to hear who you think won the stroet street fight. tweet us @cnbcfast money using the hashtag bull or guy, bear for dan, purple dan. the what does the dollar strength mean for the commodity trade in the commodities king

himself dennis gartman, editor of the gartman letter, joins us on the "fast" line. dennis, great to see you. >> well, great to talk to you, mel. >> well, we saw this really interesting reversal in the gld and the gdx, no surprise given dollar strength today but it was a 4% move from top to bottom. what's the next move here? >> i'm afraid that with the dollar breaking out against yen and not only did it break up to the upside against yen, going to par without any difficulty, it broke out against the euro, euro trying to take out 1.30 on the down side. it broke out against sterling. it broke out against every currency out there, even the aussie. so this is a dollar move, not just a yen move, and a dollar move to this sort of strength cannot be construed as being anything other than bearish for the metals and ridiculously bearish for the miners. in an environment such as this the miners have always -- especially the gold miners have underperformed gold. they may do even worse going forward. so this is not good for gold. this is not good for copper. this is not good for the base metals. this is not good for the miners

in any stretch of the imagination. >> hey, dennis, it's b.k. you know what i thought was interesting today is that the bond market actually reversed and went a little bit lower. and i know you've been trading the knob. you said it earlier in the week. somebody who's long tlt, is this a place for them to take that off? >> i think the bond market today, beaks, i think that was very prescient on your part. the fact that the bond market tumbled as it did i thought was a very poor showing for the bond market today. it tried hard to rally. it could not hold the rally. i didn't see the results of the auction. but the bond market broke long after the auction results came out under normal circumstances and closed on its low. i think i'm going to go in there and be selling more selling of the long end of the curve and buying of the middle end. i'm going to sell the long bond. i'm going to continue to buy the note after today performance. i thought that was a very poor performance. >> and the auction was actually great today. >> it was? >> yeah, it was an excellent auction. so it's even more bearish for bonds here. >> if the bond market responds bearishly to bullish news, that's not a good sign.

>> all right. and dennis, of course when it comes to the japanese exporters there's a benefit obviously with the yen weakening but it's a fine line because once the yen gets tweak to a certain point that raises the cost of energy for electricity for the manufacturers. at what point do you think is the tipping point here? >> mel, i think, first of all, you have to remember, i traded spot dollar/yen back in the '70s with 2.65, even 2.75 to the dollar. for me to imagine it goes to 1.25, which is what i said for months and months and months and months is where we are at least going, i think that is indeed where we will be going. so the exporters in japan are going to have a great benefit coming at them. on the other hand, as you point out, a weak yen with crude oil prices merely holding steady, is deleterious to japan. but i think you're going to see crude oil under pressure at the same time. so it may not be as bad as we think. >> ah. okay. dennis, thanks for that. appreciate it. dennis gartman of the world-renowned gartman letter. in terms of exporters, where

would you stand? >> well, the japanese exporters certainly do well. so dxj is your etf. that's the easiest way to be short yen. but there is -- you mentioned the point that at some point the energy costs for japan become too much. at some point the bond market if they lose control of the bond market, that's not going to be good for their domestic economy. and if there's any global weakness, then that's my concern with being long just equities. i love being short yen. i think you can still be long the dxj. >> dxj is that equities that hedge the currency hedge. not just the currency. >> it's basically being long the nikkei and short the yen. that's how it is. which is a fine trade for now. the only thing i would just say is i would be concerned with the nikkei at some point, not tomorrow, with higher energy prices if they lose control of the -- >> i think maybe a bigger concern could be the impact from the japanese consumer in businesses that get a lot of their business from japan and rely on the consumer and what that impact would be if consumers are pieg higher -- >> right, the companies that sell into japan, domestic japan. u.s. i'd worry about aflac.

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by the way, the "disruptor" series starts next week on "squawk box" and right here on "fast money." market flash here. josh lipton is tracking a name

that is moving in the after hours. josh? >> hey, melissa, we are watching nvidia here. the chip maker reported after the bell revenues that clocked in above estimates. looking ahead some disappointment, though. says revenue for the current quarter will be 956 to 985 million. analysts expected 1 billion in stock. then rallied in the after hours and pulled back. melissa, back to you. >> josh lipton. one by-product of the continued recovery in housing has been a surge in land prices and now some big names are betting on the trend. yesterday value investor steve eisman named four star, a company that holds significant acreage across the u.s. as one of his top picks. let's take a deeper dive with tom shapiro, president and chief investment officer at gtis officer a private equity fund that invests exclusively in real estate. in terms of land is it just bare land or is it land that also has houses on it? >> well, we do both. we bought starting in 2009 after the bust we accumulated around

30,000 lots across the country and that can be either raw or finished lots. so finished means the horizontal infrastructure's in, the water lines, sewer lines, ready to go vertical for a home builder. >> right now what is the greatest upside? is it raw land or the land with the infrastructure that could potentially have a tract of housing? >> well, the greatest upside is always a piece of raw land because obviously given the fact it doesn't have any improvements on it it's significantly cheaper. land if you think about it is really derivative of home prices so it moves up exponentially as home prices move up. you had land drop in places like phoenix which had home prices down 55%. land moved down around 95%. and now it's started to come back again. >> so in areas of the country, i mean, we've seen certainly a big increase in farm land. that's been a trade that's been going pretty well for a while. are you guys involved in that? are you staying away from that? looking for more value? >> no, we're really looking at residential. really where the builders are. if you think about it, the builders since they got hit so hard, builders are really

manufacturers with land being one of the inputs. so they went very long in the heyday, got burned when home prices dropped and land dropped precipitously. so they've sort of stayed away. and right now they're on a land light program. so they have to be very careful of how much land they have on their inventory. so they're really looking for just in time inventory. we've been looking to accumulate land in markets that we think are near-term actionable, meaning the builders are going to wand to buy our land from us in the short to medium term. >> since they have traded around land and each time they seem to get -- it seems a little smarter, having options on land, but do you see them again maybe getting out a little bit over their skis, accumulating land before they're able to build product? >> they dentally have to bulk up. if you think about it, home sales to date, new home sales are about 370,000 last year, probably running around 450 this year. normalized market is 800,000, 1.3 million sort of being a normal market. definitely we're going to see a lot more hold homes being built. we've been underproducing for many years now. and given gdp and job growth is

coming back in. we're seeing much more demand. households are being formed again. we're going to see a point where we're seeing more home production. in order to do that they have to start bulking up on land. from their perspective they would rather again have just in time inventory. so what we generally do is we'll go in, for example, we bought a site in mesa, arizona which is one of the best employment quarters in the phoenix market. phoenix just added 50,000 jobs. so we bought a couple thousand lots and we are selling it off in pieces 200, 300, 400 lots at a time back to the builders. so i think from their perspective they would like to have a pipeline of it and be able to buy it over time as they need it to go vertical on their homes. >> you said as employment improves, as gdp improves. they are improving but at a snail's pace at this point. but you mentioned pockets of strength like in mesa, arizona. so what are -- what's another top market in which you would put money to work and buy land right now? >> so we've been very active in texas, where we've been building a ton right now. and buying a lot of land. i think one thing, too, and maybe this is a little bit different than your question-s

urban centers. so we're starting to see a lot of production in new york city, san francisco, even believe it or not miami, which had 30,000 empty condominiums and now it's pretty much zero at this point. so we are also starting to buy land in urban centers as well. >> tom, thanks for coming by. tom shapiro of gtis. in terms of the home builders interesting you mention urban development. toll brothers for one building a lot here in new york city and in the surrounding suburbs along with some of the other home builders. >> and toll brothers has been one of the home builders that have crushed this. i still tend to believe that the home building stocks are way ahead of where the home building and the house market is. so for me there are no touch at these levels. i've been wrong on it for about 10% or so here. they're just so far ahead trading at valuations above where they were back when we had a housing boom. so for me i can't be in them. >> coming up next, how the pros pinpoint value in this market. trader karen finerman reveals her method. and cnbc's jane wells has the daily deals, daily steals, and the mother's day stock play.

jane. >> melissa, is groupon the new netflix? is the facebook phone a flop? and is mother's day really a contrived holiday to sell flowers, chocolates, and greeting cards? i don't care if it is. buy me some. when we come back. (announcer) at scottrade, our clients trade and invest exactly how they want. with scottrade's online banking, i get one view of my bank and brokerage accounts with one login... to easily move my money when i need to. plus, when i call my local scottrade office, i can talk to someone who knows how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. awarded five-stars from smartmoney magazine.

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welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq marketsite in new york's times square. famed hedge fund manager david einhorn has some advice for investors. at the summit investment conference he said do your own work and worried investors about blindly following anyone into a stock. so what metrics do our traders use to find some value? time for a little trade school with our own value girl, karen fin finerman. >> a few things i look for, number one is cash flow. and the metric i use is ebidta minus capex. and that means is earnings before interest, taxes, appreciation, and amortization. subtract out from that the ca x capex. what does it really cost to maintain your business? so that's a really important metric of cash flow. the second one i use is p/e ratio. the market is pretty familiar with that. it's sort of an easy shorthand. so i like to look at that. and then the third one that's important to me is relative to

the competitors what's the p/e? that's sort of what gets you to a place to start. i'm not necessarily look for the best -- i mean for the cheapest. i'm looking for the best. so a lot of times the cheapest is cheap for a reason. you've got to understand why is that p/e so low? do they have a bad market position? do they have a bad balance sheet? so it's really just a place to start. not a place to finish. >> right. and by the way, in terms of david einhorn's advice, absolutely do your own work on everything because keep in mind, like take a look at some of the conference picks from last year. david einhorn said he liked apple. since then apple's down 17%. jeff gunlak said short jwn, nordstrom. it's up 14% since then. and ackman said go long jcpenney and you know how that turned out. so obviously, these guys have a lot of other great picks, but just they probably -- >> but that's an important point because remember, they're trading a portfolio. so if you're at home, don't go piling all in to one of these and make it 30%, 40% of your

portfolio. if you like the idea, take a little dabble in it but don't make it a huge part of your portfolio. >> a little dab'll do you. >> yeah. >> from mobile devices to medical marijuana we've got you convert r covered on the west coast wrap. jane wells on the best coast. >> speaking of mobile devices groupon reports more people are accessing daily deals on their mobile devices. one reason why revenues beat the street and shares ended the day up more than 11%. and while the company lost a penny a share, that was also better than expected. telsey advisory group saying groupon is taking share north america from living social and goo google. is groupon the new netflix? >> what do you think, beakers? >> i don't think so. they have such high costs in this business. and karen just talked about looking at p/e or ebidta or whatever it was. the e, they don't have any of it. it was up 11%. take it as a gift and sell it. >> all right. now, you can come out with a cool new phone, which costs $99 with a two-year contract. and then in a month the price is

slashed to 99 cents? do customers not like it? that's what's happened with the so-called facebook phone from htc. the htc first being sold with a two-year at&t contract for less than a buck. buy one for mom sunday. she'll think you spent a fortune. at&t tells mashable it's not a big deal, it does promotions all the time. but 99 cents? facebook doesn't seem insulted, melissa. it put the promotion on its own facebook page. >> 99 cents. could somebody go on and feasibly, karen, buy that 99-cent phone and not buy another phone, buy another phone maker? >> i suppose they could. i remember when apple did that, didn't they then do some sort of rebate for people who had bought the phone and then shortly thereafter the price was cut? but for the phone business -- >> but not 99 cents. >> no. not 99 cents. >> that's a new low for the phone business, jane. >> finally, karen, mom, mother's day, big day for 1-800-flowers. hershey, american greetings. uh-oh. new survey from harris interactive shows 1 in 5 americans have forgotten mother's day before. 1 in 4 men have.

but an earlier harris poll showed nearly 1/3 of moms sometimes only pretend to like your gifts. skip the hassle? no. the poll neglected to ask moms if they'd be angry if you completely forgot even if they hate the lousy card you buy. theodore john wells, i'm talking to you. >> i love jane. you know that. >> yes. obviously. >> jane, the hubbinator is -- by definition he's your husband. you're not his mother. so do you -- this is for men. i need to know the answer. so do you expect a mother's day card gift from him? it seems somewhat counterintuitive, no? >> good point. >> well, yes, i do. because he knows my son is going to be a loser about this and so i'm going to be all sad. >> that's trade school. >> it's coming up. mother's day. it's a psa, jane. good job. thank you. coming up next, find out which viewer tweets made today's "fast money" cut. we will trade them live, straight ahead. in today's markets,

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moooooommmmmm!!! then one day, it was just gone. mom! [announcer] you are how you sleep. tempur-pedic. we love getting tweets on this desk. we're all on twitter. we all like to tweet. we get your tweets. so let's get to some of the tweet questions to our crew

today. guy, this is for you. please advise about boeing. it's got to be going higher, question mark. >> yeah, well, i think didn't -- given what precision cast parts said, and we'll talk about that in a little while, and given the fact that boeing was able to shrug off all those battery things, we talked about that, and given the fact i street fought it against somebody i think on this desk, yeah, i think it's going to continue to go higher. i like b.a. here. >> did you win that street fight? >> who knows? >> okay. >> but he knows he street fought it. >> i know i street fought it. >> this one's for you, dan. tesla valuation seems insane. time to buy puts and short? >> no way. here's one, this thing is unhinged here. you're going to be throwing good money after bad on this one. i think this stock's probably going to at least 100 here. it's got 50% short interest. it seems like everything that comes out of elon musk's mouth makes this stock go up 5 he%, 1. >> why is goldman sachs continuing to lag this this rally? still 6% below its highs back in march. >> i think it had a bit of a run-up into that.

so the timing, it may have lagged, but i like goldman sachs right here. i think it's good to own. >> and this one's for beakers. what is up with the positive bond-equity correlation today? >> well, prescient. it actually is very concerning to me. >> that's a good word, by the way. >> that's a fantastic word by dennis gartman. >> what's it mean? >> it means that james was really paying attention to the market today. >> to see. >> #harvard for you right there. but in terms of the bond-equity correlation, that is very concerning. everybody who says don't fight the fed and are getting into stocks and not into bonds, they're going to be very surprised to see both of these things go down. and they very well could. so tomorrow if this happens again it might be time to get out of bonds. >> all right. coming up next, we will see who the twittersphere voted for in our street fight. plus, your first move tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned.

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>> avoiding facebook here. >> beakers. >> chesapeake. chk. and happy mother's day, mom. >> aw. karen. >> i like tkr after relation ap won the proxy non-binding proposal. >> guy. >> take some profits in pcp, folks. >>♪ my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. if you want to make friends, i'm just trying to save you a little money. my job is not just to entertain you, to train you. call me, 1-800-743-cnbc. on a day when the dow and s&p, once again, hit all-time hi