tv Fast Money CNBC May 13, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
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and before we say good night, take a look at the day on wall street. the dow industrials down about 26. volume on the light side. nasdaq and s&p higher by just a fraction. that will do it for us tonight on "closing bell." thanks so much for joining us. stay with cnbc. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. here's what "fast" is following tonight. the portfolio manager explains why buyers should beware of big income payers. trash to treasure. why is amd stock doing so well? the traders take positions on the chipmaker's 75% rally this year and whether you should be getting involved. and silver linings playbook. the ceo of silver wheaton explains how he's surviving the
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plunge in precious metals. with tim seymour, pete najarian and guy adami. pete is looking at bullish signals about the rally. let's start it off with caterpillar. >> what really struck out for us today obviously was when you see some of these options rolling out of the may options and up actually further up in the strikes into the june options, what am i talking about? 15,000 of the may 90 calls were sold. they rolled immediately into the june 92 1/2 calls, buying those creating a new position there, looking for more of an extension of a rally that started at $80 about a month ago. then it's been moving up. about a week and a half ago i was on, what are some of the legs? we talked about caterpillar, financials, specifically bank of america. i'd go back to the banks. both up about 2%. the xlf up 2% as well as caterpillar. i think these will continue to lead us and what that options is telling us today that big trade is that somebody believes right now that moving caterpillar, it's not just a construction
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company. people were pricing it for destruction. this is a company that's going higher. >> so you piece these pieces together, you think this rally will continue. >> absolutely because i think the financials are the backbone of what we've been watching. if you look at the volatility index, how low it is right now, that's been telling us for a long time, look, protection's in place. we don't have to sell out on any of these selloffs. they've bought small dips. they're very shallow. >> i look at what the other guys, joy global, even deere, kubota was up 11% because it's japan and some of the numbers. materials are really not holding a bid. i don't see where you're getting that. on the chart, it looks like it's in a precarious place. i think it goes lower. >> you're probably right. 88 seemed to be a balance today where they were actually finding a little support. but remember, it's not just about the materials stocks. we're talking about construction. we're not just talking about the mining area. and then you get into the power area as well. that's two-thirds of what brings in their revenue right now. we all think it's just mining.
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it's not just the mining companies. >> are you billish of stocks, dennis gartman? >> yes, i am. i have been bullish of stocks for a while. i wish i had been more bullish of stocks. i actually turned agnostic, as i said, back in february. as long as the monetary authorities continue to push reserves into the system, the only place you'll see stocks is go higher. >> did you watch "the partridge family" growing up? that tie is it. >> like if you held it horizontally, it's the bus. put some wheels on the bottom. >> i didn't notice. >> which is good. >> it's awesome. >> what i did notice back in the day was susan dey. i had a lot of time for susan. >> your big buyer. >> long of susan dey. no question. >> back to the markets. >> petey talked about, when the stock traded down to 79 1/2, higher on the day on big volume and cat was a name i think across the board we disliked. and basically until that day and since then, it's been off to the races. as timmy points out. a little bit of a pullback here. i think risk reward on the long side sets up rather well.
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i don't think you have to risk a lot to have an upside north of 90. 87 1/2 holds there. >> you know where you're wrong. >> on that stock. >> i'm always wrong. >> but you look at the chart. can you tell if it makes a new low. >> let's define one thing. they were selling out of the mays, buying into june so they're getting some time. they don't necessarily think may, by the end of the week, this stock's going to go to 92 1/2. they're saying look, we've got 5 1/2 weeks. at 5 1/2 weeks, we think between now and then, this stock's going to be somewhere around 92 1/2 or higher. >>overall in terms of the markets, are you bull snish. >> there's a couple things going on. the aussie/dollar has plunged below 1. if we were back in june of last year, markets would be hemorrhaging right now with this kind of move. i think it's telling you there's deflation. i think the boj's move means there's a lot more central bank expansion. i would be short the european banks still. if you look at what happened to the, you have a couple banks, commerce bank. i'm more constructive on equities just because of what's
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going on with the ex-pan. look at the treasury move. look at the backup. i think this is something that continues. and i think if the fed tapering continues that mode, it actually comes because there's more economic strength behind it. we don't need to call that today. but the point is i think equities can go higher. >> pete, if this is a market that will go higher in your view, are you a buyer of -- not financials -- technologies? do you think that everything will participate? >> no. i don't. i think there will be some participation, but i think when you're looking at the markets right now, you're going to look at primarily the financials on a next leg to the upside. when you look at a lot of these names we talk about every night on the show, some of these names still remain underneath book value. i think there is value there that's a lot higher than where you're seeing bank of america and citi trade right now. i think there's upside there. when we get to jamie dimon, that's going to be an interesting conversation because that's a name that's trading at book value, slightly under. >> let's get to jamie dimon. jamie dimon considering leaving the top post if investors vote to split up the chairman and ceo
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roles. if he leaves, with a would you do with the stock? that's our question tonight. ♪ now that we've found love ♪ what are we going to do ♪ with it >> date? dump? or marry? >> and a great tune. >> we are targeting jpmorgan shares which are 7% below the all-time high. pete, why don't you kick it off? >> i tell you what, i am in the camp that if actually jamie dimon is separated from the dual role that he has presently, i actually think that he would really seriously consider dropping out and getting out of jpmorgan completely, maybe going to a different bank. i heard them talking about some of these topics as well today. when you're looking at this bank, i think the reason it's performed so well and did so well during the financial crisis and since that whale incident a little over a year ago, i think that a lot of that is due to the fact that he is the guy running the ship and how he runs the ship, if he's gone, i'm gone. i'm out. >> tim. >> i marry jpmorgan. i don't necessarily marry jp dimon. i know that's probably a little
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disappointing the ladies on the desk. >> me being the only lady. >> if the lady fits. look, steve jobs was a technological and a technology and a creative innovator at apple. jamie dimon is a fantastic financial engineer. he's also someone that's been a great poker player in the political game of the evolution of the financial industry. he's played his hand as well as anyone ever has. jpmorgan as a bank has the balance sheet to aspire to. it has a valuation at .95. mortgage origination is getting better. this is the best of the bunch. this is a long-term marriage. it may not be a trade. i would be worried about the headline risk, but i'd be taking advantage of that to get married. >> guy. >> i'm sure in his days at hbs jamie played this game as well. i'm sure it was a little different, but proper decorum prohikts me to tell you the exact game they were playing. pietz's in the dump camp. timmy's in the marrying camp. see, i'm in the date camp because i think five years ago i would have been in the dump
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camp, but i can't speak intelligently the succession plan to jpmorgan, but my sense is they have a deep enough bench where the stock will sell off. that's when i'm going to be maybe not calling my date for a couple days. and then on that selloff. >> a lot of gamesmanship entailed. >> well, that's dating. >> apple has a great bench. i think the world of tim cook, but they still have to remain somebody -- >> one man does not a bench maybe. >> it's jot nus him. it's oppenheimer. there's a whole group. when i look at jpmorgan, it is jamie dimon. >> you don't think it's gotten to the point where now it's fine, it's in good shape? >> well, we are talking about hundreds of thousands of employees, there's no doubt about it. plenty of great lieutenants out there, but i still look at it as i think if any other bank would have had a whale incident, that stock would have been down $10, $12 and still not recovered. i think the way that was -- >> but the stock goes down -- let's say this happens. let's say dimon says i'm out of
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here. i'm out of here. the stock goes down. you wouldn't buy it? >> no. >> not for a date, you wouldn't do it? >> i might take it for a date and it would be a short weekly option type of a run, but it's not going to be a marriage where i'm buying the stock for the long term. >> again, as a guy that would get married to this stock, you're ultimately saying first of all, they had a whale incident. and it happened under dimon's watch. i'm not vilifying him for it. i think he handled it very well himself. this is a bank who basically owns the mortgage market, owns the credit card market, i think is going to own the investment banking market. where is -- >> and without him, suddenly i start to see an implosion, and maybe people start leaving the bank along with jamie as well. >> all right. well, we want to hear from you out there. who would you date, dump or marry? you know, would you do that with jpmorgan? tweet us @cnbcfastmoney using the #date, #dump or #marry. we'll have the results at the end of the show. before the break, let's take a check on the after-hours movers.
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popping nearly 5% on first quarter results. take two's financial year guidance in line with expectations. solar city, meantime, down 4% on first quarter earnings. they missed on eps with the loss of 41 cents a share. that's versus an expected 39 cents. revenue beat slightly. next, why a safety play may be anything but. one of the fund managers tells us why. plus this chipmaker may be having its best year ever. why shares of amd may have more room to run. and the ceo of silver wheaton. much more "fast" straight ahead. it's as simple as this.
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news on dell. let's check in with josh lipton at the flash desk. >> karl icahn and southeastern management telling us the board they want at dell, according to a filing with the s.e.c., it appears that icahn and southeastern each now nominating directors. as for icahn, he wants icahn on the board. remember, he sits on a range of boards including starfire, cvr energy and tropicana. in addition to himself, icahn wants what looks to be a range of venture capitalists, officers at icahn capital among others.
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in addition, southeastern nominates six persons, taken together looks mostly like tech consultants and lawyers. back to you. >> thank you very much, josh lipton. this is unusual on carl's part as josh mentioned, he serves on a few boards. cvr is the last board he took an active role and served on the board for. let's say you're sitting on a board. what's your move? >> if you have a tight stop on this thing, i think you can still play dell from the long side here. i'm not speaking to the business necessarily. i know the stock has sold off. we obviously had it 14.25 a little while ago. i think you can own it within an extraordinarily tight stop, understanding that this could go pear-shaped. risk/reward to me still sets up better on the long side. >> amd, in case you missed this, the semiconductor company popping 5% in today's session alone. and it's up more than 15% in the past week. it's actually up 68% over the past month. most of the year's gains. so what do you do at this point?
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i mean, there are a lot of rumors fueling this, be obviously. >> definitely. and there's a lot of short guys on the stock. goldman had a buy report or at least ultimately saying it's rating at an outperform and seeing cost cutting, getting higher asps. this is a place that these guys have a nice corner of the business. when you have that kind of short interest, a lot of guys are running for cover on this. i would not be chasing this stock here, but i can tell you that's why it's going higher. >> pete, options activity here? >> we're not seeing an enormous amount of options activity. we're talking about a $4 stock, and we've seen some activity, not the kind of activity you're seeing with some of the other names. when you look at a dell, you see 150,000 open interest and some of these strikes just above where the stock is trading. you're not seeing that type of activity in amd. this is a stock on the move and definitely some of that short covering i think is part of the reason. >> investors still on the hunt for yield out there. but as more money pours into dividend-paying stocks, is there
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a bubble forming? for more, let's bring in barbara. she manages the gabelli dividend growth fund. what sectors would you be most concerned about right now in terms of a so-called bubble or overvaluation forming? >> maybe telecom, things like reits. dividend-paying stocks in place is silly because to pick up 3% or 4% versus 1% or 2%. but i think people have been doing that. certainly we've been hearing that for the past couple years. it's an alternative to fixed income which really doesn't make sense. >> barbara, that extra 1% is significant for bond players. look at tips, look at what's gone in it erms of the bond flows and yield compression. if i'm a guy that can and a lot of these guys are making allocations towards the equity mark and that's part of the view, corporate balance sheets are way underleveraged. look at what apple's doing.
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why doesn't this make you feel like at least there can be more support not only for, you know, the dividends, but the actual share prices themselves? >> you know, in stocks, i mean, to buy a dif dividend yield, i don't think that makes sense. look, you're getting a more yield and you have upside. that's an equity. so, you know, i just think -- >> crossover investors from fixed income. >> in the last couple years, we've said this so much, buy stocks in place of fixed income which really doesn't make sense. to me that's an equities investment. >> i happen to agree with you because over the weekend i was taking a look at various stocks, just looking at p&g, johnson & johnson and surprised at how the stocks have traded. i would think they'd all be making new highs. they failed. i found that interesting over the weekend. >> i think you have to look at prices and look for total
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returns. you're trying to buy something cheaply in a market that has mediocre valuation. if you can buy something 11, 12 times earnings in the next couple years, then you're on the right track. >> to dennis's point, is that a warning sign, or is it a seen that people are rotating and getting into some more beta stocks? >> you know, i don't know. you know, we've certainly sort of peaking at earnings. earnings were up 5% in the first quarter where the top line was only up 1%. i think we've achieved all we can in record margins. we don't have top line growth. about 25% of the earnings growth in the last three years has come from companies taking advantage of lower rates, you know, refinancing, also doing buybacks, share buybacks. you know, it's a mediocre 16, 15, 16 times when you consider how you got there, i think that's very mediocre valuation. so i don't know certainly, though, we're starting to see individuals, equity mutual fund inflows for the first time.
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margin stocks on margin as a percentage of brokerage accounts is back to levels that we saw in 2007. so we're starting to see people pull in. i expect to see with record highs on the s&p and the dow, you know, certainly the federal reserve has been very successful at reflating, housing prices going up. it certainly seems like there's more here. >> i want to ask you about your picks. one really stands out, and that is aig. as far as i can see, aig zndoes not pay a dividend. >> you're looking for total return, aig is trading, despite being up about 25% this year, and that's because i think the treasury finally exited the last of the stock last year, despite being up 25%, aig is still trading at 65% of book value, has a very low roe. the opportunity to increase that and the company announced a 10% return on equity. i think two years from now. >> you anticipate them to pay a dividend. >> i do. >> you do. >> i do. >> we'll have to leave it there. always a pleasure. barbara with gabelli dividend growth fund.
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macy's reporting thursday. brian, what did you see out there? >> well, macy's is really interesting because we had retail sales this morning, melissa. those were pretty good. when you looked at the numbers, the department stores were not as great. macy's traded lower. not only did you have stock buyers bidding up the stock, it's traded up about a half a percent from the lows. you had option traders buying calls, specifically may 48 for about 50 cents. basically they're saying macy's could rally into their earnings. they've beaten earnings expectations by about 8% on average over the last four quarters here. they do that again, you could see the stock pop. it moves typically 3% up or down. a 3% up move puts these calls in the money above 48. traders saying there's maybe more upside. only risking the value of the call which is 50 cents. >> if you had to make a choice, macy's -- >> is this the same game? >> no, different game. move on. macy's or jc penney? >> dump. >> macy's or jc penney? because macy's always has been
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flagged as the executer. jc penney, maybe not so much, in the midst of some sort of transformation. >> i'll probably be the lone standout, but jc penney -- and i remember the day, the day it collapsed down to 13 and change, what was monster volume and i said it feels like the washout day in jc penney. the company's still broke, but the stock feels like it might run. now here we are some $5 later and that's exactly what it's done. although i think macy's is a far better company clearly, i think the beta trade still goes to jcp. >> macy's trading and a valuation also if you look at forward numbers 12 times which is not expensive relative to its recent history. next, they are the media company shaking up the status quo. we are getting ready to reveal the disrupter 50. first, the usda is saying it's going to be a bumper crop for corn this year, but you've got to sow it to reap it.
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our jane wells is up next with the update. jane. >> melissa, we're once again being threatened with corn cornmaggedon. new numbers and how the market is reacting after the break. "fast money" is trading. everybody has to bring their best information each and every night. the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. >> it's idea generation. it's all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. as the world has changed, our show has evolved. i am guy adami. i am "fast money." >> i am pete najarian. i am "fast money." >> are you "fast money"? go to the nbc universal store and order your "fast money" tee. run with the big dogs. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first.
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after a slow start to the planting season, the usda is carefully tracking this year's corn crop. jane wells joins us now from los angeles to break down the latest corn report which was a crop report, i should say, which was released 4:00 p.m. eastern time today p jane. >> it seems like everything about corn lately is historic. some of the contracts above $7 a bushel on what is turning out to be one of the latest corn plantings -- wait for it -- on
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record. the usda says 28% of corn has been planted compared to 85% a year ago with a four-year average. two biggest corn states are iowa and illinois. iowa has nearly doubled its plantings. last year it had 86% in the ground. illinois, a year ago it was 94%. of course then came the drought and wiped out a lot of that. corn was way up anticipating this news. also there's a good cash market right now and a look at the weather forecast, good weather predicted this week in the corn belt which could help farmers catch up, but next week rain is become in the forecast. this as the usda has predicted a record corn crop with average yields over 150 bushels an acre. really? generally a late corn plantings does not necessarily impact yields, but in this case, quote, a near record late plantings edgity matly threatens yields though they can plant a whole
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lot faster than they used to. if the weather doesn't stay clear, some farmers can switch to soybeans, but everything's behind schedule, corn, beans, wheat, peanuts, they're all late. >> dennis, what did you do on this? what does this mean? >> first of all, there's one thing you can bet on in the united states, it's the ability for the american farmer to plant more of a crop than ever dreamed when you get three or four five days' worth of decent weather. these guys can get in the fields and plant 24/7. they've got gps on their planting equipment. they run straight lines. you'll be surprised how much you can get in the ground. two, never underestimate the ability of genertically modifie corn to do better than anything we had imagined a mere five years ago. >> i think we saw that in the drought. >> absolutely, jane. we saw that in the drought last year. >> the yields were amazing. >> no question. under normal circumstances ten years ago the drought that we had last year would have cut the corn crop to $11 billion. instead you got $13 billion. >> explain that because last
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week they sold up because of this lower corn but isn't this an opportunity if you tell me these guys will be replanting quickly? it's all about what's going on in the demand side. >> if you look at fertilizer side, they comically sold off. especially the nitrogen producers, no question. they're going to need fertilizer. we're going to get the crop in the ground. it can be delayed. the magic date is usually may 15, but nowadays you can move the crop back to may 18, 19, 20. and if we really do have global warming, it means in the back end of the crop year when you'd normally get early frost that do damage, we may not get them. i think you'll see a large crop this year, larger than anticipated. >> our thanks to jane wells out in los angeles covering the crop report. "pops & drops." the big movers of the day. everybody ready? we're kicking it off with guy. ready or not? zynga. >> all the metrics missed. but the shorts were now to get the stock up. if you want to buy it for a trade, that's fine. >> joy global, a drop, down 3%.
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tim. >> a tough place for the stock. sliced right through the 200. the ceo pointed out that china is still an important part of their growth because of coal. negative news out of china today. >> drop for pitney bowes. >> when they cut the dividend in half, it got down to a 5% yield. suddenly we got the ceo stepping in last week buying 66,000 shares. big move to the upside. this is a slight pullback off of that. i still think stay away for a while. >> drop for wti crude. >> wti has been -- crude oil has been under pressure for a while. term structure continues to tell you that there is an excess supply of crude out there. crude prices are still going lower. maybe dramatically so. >> a drop for in-flight entertainment. >> what? >> maybe she just wanted to dance with somebody. this amateur video shows a woman kicked off an american airlines plane for singing whitney houston nonstop. the cross-country karaoke flight was forced to make an emergency landing after the passenger refused to stop serenading even
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after being subdued by an air marshal, the woman was questioned and released without any charges. >> you know what they should have given her. you know what i love on planes? >> warm nuts. >> warm nuts. >> obviously. >> i love that, warm nuts are the best. what? >> i'm out. i'm out. i'm not touching that. >> on tv, that's danger -- they are delicious. anyway. >> walnuts, chestnuts. >> enjoy those. >> special programming note as we head to break. appaloosa management will be joining "squawk box" tomorrow morning. tune in starting at 7:45 a.m. eastern time. what he says could move the markets tomorrow. coming up next, where to find the hottest trade on the planet and the best ways to profit from it. first, it's a company sensitive to precious metal prices. hear how silver wheaton is positioned now after earnings missed the street. back right after this.
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2013 as the yen hits multiyear lows against the dollar. let's go off the charts with our very own tim seymour to check out some of the hot japan trades you might want to consider now. >> some of the world's biggest companies have almost cartoonish charts. kubota, these guys are effectively making tractors, all types of farming equipment. it was up 11% today. they are forecasting 95 yen to the dollar. in fact, we know where the yen is well through 100. this only makes them much more profitable. this is a story we're seeing across the board. 50% of sales are overseas. as an exporter, this is great news. 30% sales in brazil. this is an exciting part to be in. some of the other banks, nimora's chart is ridiculous. we were under $4 stock a year ago. but if you move from november, this stock's up 126%. the brokers are seeing a second wave of investors. so retail investors. japanese -- >> so people want to take part in the rise of the nikkei. >> absolutely. >> they're all trading and the thought is that trading will increase. >> no, and it has.
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the volumes have gone through the roofs. these guys are major beneficiaries. some of the big boys are the ones that are really seeing it. if you look at this, it's actually down 4% on the year. if you look at it year over year, at least since november when the bank of japan started going into motion, this stock has suffered because for every dollar -- every one move in dollar/yen. in other words, from 95 to 96 cost this company $80 million. >> wow. >> if you're talking about some of their import costs, this is a company that actually sees more of a drag on their earnings flow. and you should not run into it. including the market has not. >> is this because they make things that rely on imported parts? >> exactly. fujitsu was out saying the same thing. finally, toyota, a stock and chart that a lot of people have done very well in. i think they probably will. it's a function also of the global auto market. if you look at where their cap ex is, these guys have to lower it to commence rate with the weaker yen and higher capex costs. i would be running into the ones out of japan because they're really making a boom. >> dennis, can this export trade
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continue? in other words, can the yen further weaken? >> i think the yen can weaken dramatically for the next several years. i've argued for a very long period of time, having remembered trading dollar yen at 265 and 285 yen to the dollar 25 years ago and a mere eight, nine and ten years ago when we were trading 2.65, moving through par is i think inconsequential. i think we're moving to 1.25 and maybe even higher. so if you're one of the companies who's got a problem with losing $80 million on one big-figure move, you've got a big problem. on the other hand, if you're an exporter, life looks good for the next several years. >> toyota, we talked about this at 98. it's actually doing better now than the end trade. i still like tm. >> stricter lending conditions and falling commodity prices are creating opportunities for companies like silver wheaton. silver wheaton gets the right to all -- or a portion of its operating partner's silver and gold production while remaining
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insulated from price swings. earlier today i spoke to randy smallwood, the ceo of silver wheaton, this is the largest prers m precious metals streaming company in the world. i started off asking him how he's navigating prices. >> they're well down in the cost curve and prettile insulated. it's always the high cost operations that suffer first. from these lower costs. and it does open up opportunities for us. i always say we either grow with higher commodity prices or we grow by acquiring. we do win on both sides of that equation. >> can you give us a specific example as to how you've capitalized or taken advantage of the declining prices, specifically in silver when it comes to the lower cost of producers out there? >> definitely. if you sit and look at where silver was trading in excess of $40 an ounce back in 2011, 2012, we gained from the cash flow. it gave us the war chest that has allowed us to go out and
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spe spend. and during the high prices we built up the war chest, and thousand we put it back to work. we're seeing prices down what we think is near bottom. >> you've also been diversifying into gold pretty aggressively most recently with an agreement with bally's as you mentioned back in february. it seems like the gold is greater with a lot of credit rating agency saying gold producers will face credit rating downgrades. is the pressure from your standpoint more on the gold side and whether or not existing agreements can actually be either pursued in an opportuni t opportunistic way or in jeopardy because prices have fallen too much? >> well, and that's what we see right now. again going back to making sure we invest into low-cost operations, we know these assets will survive through. and so they're well below. their cost to produce an ounce is well below where we are right now on an operating basis. we know these wins will survive.
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the current markets right now are down close, you know, you're starting to see some gold investment, some capital projects get delayed or deferred and pushed off because they're not willing to step into this type of commodities space. it's the natural supply/demand here where we're starting to cut out some of the supply side, and that should provide support to the prices long term. that's why we're kpfcomfortable that we're close to bottom. >> rbc said the all-in price to produce for one ounce of gold for north american producers is $1200. is that the sort of pricing structure that you're dealing with? >> that's what we see out there. that's an average across the industry. when you look at where we get our silver byproduct and gold byproduct production from, our costs are generally much lower than that. again,ocusing on -- that's the middle of the pack. we focus on the producers that actually produce for a cost less than that. >> and what do you see in general in terms of your forecast for the price of silver
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and gold, especially as we see the dollar continue to ramp up? >> yeah, the dollar, when i sit and look at the reserve currencies around the world, the american dollar is looking pretty good. the euro, watching what happened with the small country like cyprus, you know, how much instability that brought in, watching japan dramatically devalue, i think if you're a precious metals investor in japan, you're actually pretty happy with what precious metals has done in yen terms. what we're seeing is this continued strength in the u.s. dollar. i just wish i saw something of substance within the u.s. that actually justified that versus having people run in. i don't see that, that justification within the united states itself, which means to me, probably not sustainable for a very long term, and we're still bullish on precious metals long term. >> we're going to leave it there. thanks for your time. appreciate it. >> great, melissa. thank you. >> randy smallwood, ceo of silver wheaton. >> dennis, what's the trade here? >> i think he made the suggestion properly. if you own gold in terms of yen, something i've talked about for months and months, people laugh
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at it, but it's been the great trade, it keeps making new highs. if you own gold in and of itself, in dollar terms, not a good trade at all. this is probably better of the mining companies than you have by owning any of the miners. that's about the best. >> that's not a ringing endorsement. >> that's not a great endorsement, no. >> i would simply add they're able to pick over a lot of the assets around the world. they just bought assets off of volley. again, producing assets, some in brazil, some in canada. and they don't need to buy anything. >> if you need to buy a miner buy these guys. coming up next, find out which hot start-up is disrupting the entire industry in a war for tv's future. up next, julia boorstin unveils the top five companies disru disrupting media. she is here in person at the nasdaq market site. much more "fast" straight ahead. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 opportunities are waiting to be found in faraway places.
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disrupter? 50 growth companies across ten industries shaking things up, threatening the old guard out there. to pick them, b-school professors guiding principles including the potential to replace incumbents, likelihood for hypergrowth. ability to scale quickly and new business models. then from 200-plus nominations, our editors and reporters knocked it down to the final 50. julia boorstin is here in person to reveal the media disrupters. julia, great to see you. >> it's great to be here, melissa. nowhere is extreme disruption more evident than in the media industry. companies on our list are reinventing content, advertising and distribution models. and they have the old media companies in their crosshairs. aero is such a threat to the paid business that all the media conglomerates are trying to block the company in court before its nationwide rollout. it streams live tv for the
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fraction of a cost to of a cable bill. each subscriber is assigned a mini antenna. backers including iac say they're confident that aereo will beat back the legal offensive. the incumbent media giants are developing streaming capabilities for live tv on their own. now, buzzfeed, another disrupteder, is changing advertising by helping brands of published content virtually indistinguishable from the news content elsewhere on its site. now, its technology detects what's trending and delivers content targeted to the viewer and design to go viral. this disrupter had 65 million unique visitors in april. it tripled revenue in 2012. and its ceo who is well known for co-founding the huffington post has secured nearly $50 million in financing. spotify offering unlimited access to 20 million plus song
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library. that's not quite as big as itunes, but for $10 a month, its 6 million subscribers can stream as many of those songs as they want on any device. another 18 million people listen to spotify on the desktop for free with ads. spotify has raised $188 million in its most recent round, the company was valued at $3 million. it threatens pandora, iheart radio and yes, apple. tumblr making it easily accessible to anyone with a smartphone. investors have poured $125 million into the service because its 107 million blogs are giving marketers an entirely new way to reach niche audiences. it's drawing six-figure ad investments from all the major studios along with brands including ge, pepsi, at&t and home depot. and tumblr could soon be taking dollars from established new media giants yahoo! aol and even
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facebook and google. our last disrupter is twitter. its 200 million active users tweeting over 400 million times each day are transforming the way the world communicates. from breaking news to advertising, even customer service, 140 characters at a time. now that twitter's ramping up its advertising, its valuation is estimated around $10 billion. television and madison avenue are now embracing the twitter conversation so they're not cut out of the equation. now, melissa, there's a lot of exclusive disrupter 50 content happening online this week. on twitter we're usin using #cnbcdisrupters to discuss and debate. and disrupter50.cnbc.com will take you inside our 50 companies. tomorrow on "squawk box," we'll have the manufacturing companies shaking things up. and tomorrow here on "fast money," the enterprise and security software companies. melis melissa? >> guy.
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>> i don't use pandora. >> i know that about you. i think you'd love it. >> look at pandora today, a new 52-week high. ridiculous valuation. so julia's point, if they're going to come in and disrupt, if you're looking for a short idea that could be painful, pandora might fit the bill. >> because pandora has spotify as a threat. also apple if they launch a screaming music business. >> i think it's twitter and i think most of us have a familiarity. >> a newfound familiarity. >> twitterer. at $10 billion, i actually thought the valuation was even higher. so if it's actually at $10 billion right now, there are certainly some of those out there, and you just wonder, will that be scooped up by any of these biggies? i mean, the apples of the world always come up, but how about google? when you're going for search, you go onto twitter now, if you want to search stocks, you get information immediately. >> instant access to information. and i think the question is with twitter, is it going to be the next ipo? if it's not acquired. there's a lot of talk it could go public in the next year or so. >> in terms of disrupters,
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facebook is almost an old disrupter that might be a new disrupter, too. a lot of people feel like these guys are finally making their way in mobile ad. these guys are being abouting a way to achieve commerce and legitimize. first of all, can facebook, who i think by the time they got to ipo, was almost obsolete. can they seize on a twitter? are they in a position to be this offensive to actually take down a part of the media that i think they should control? >> i think that's a big question. twitter really has these promoted tweets, the way their ads work are embedded in the process. and there's a concern that facebook's ads are less natural and more disruptive whereas twitter's work better. coming up next on "fast," jc penney getting some mojo back. we'll analyze the big move and talk some numbers here. stick with us. [ female announcer ] what if the next big thing, isn't a thing at all?
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disappointing first quarter d a data. so is the bottom in jc penney in right now? talking numbers with richard ross, global technical analyst at auerbach greyson. richard, great to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> the question is, has it seen a bottom? >> guy made the point earlier that we could have seen the capitulation with that big washout day, down around 14 and change. we retested the lows back around the 2009 financial panic. we look at this chart, can you see that well-defined down trend. this is really the golden age of retailing with just about every big name breaking out to a fresh new high whereas this chart looks like silver or italy for that matter. there's that potential washout that guy was alluding to. now, we're coming into a lot of overhead resistance here. not just from the trend line but also the 200-day moving average which has been a ceiling of resistance going back to 2012. the stock's heavily shorted, we know that, but not every crowded short turns into a netflix or a
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tessa. i will say this. if we do get that squeeze, if the squeeze is on and you take out the trend line and moving average, they're not going to be able to stop the momentum. you want to use that as a protective stock in any short position and go the other way. maybe you get long on a decisive breakout above that key area of resistance. i don't know if the bottom's in. look, it could have been a washout here or here. this is kind of a little bit of a death spiral here in the name. so until we get back above that key area of resistance, i think you want to keep your tight to the vest on a breakout, you're a buyer, you certainly want to cover any short. but for now, we could see a retest of that $14 if we get a pullback in the broader market. >> so richard, what is the breakout level? because i'm looking at the same chart as you, and they defined down trend. absolutely you've seen bounces along the way which we're in the midst of now. i think it breaks out if we can somehow get above 20, is that short of what you're looking at here? >> i certainly think those big, round numbers have a psychological appeal. let's not split hairs here. this isn't rocket science. this is as much an art as a
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science. i think that 20 level would be key psychological resistance, the 200-day up around 20. somewhere in there. if you're playing it from the short side, you want to give yourself more breathing room in the event we get a false breakout above that 200-day. maybe give yourself up to 21. that next round number. i know that's another 5%. but we're looking at a stock that could potentially see a v-shaped move to the upside. you want to give yourself a little room, but you still want to keep it tight. >> richard, great to see you. pete, you're on the retail front. what would be your top retail pick? especially headed into a number of earnings reports this week and next. >> i've never been a fan of jcp. i understand the squeeze you've been talking about. i still go with the discounters and i'd go with tjx. >> catch more with rich ross on "talking numbers" at cnbc.com/talking-numbers hosted by the one and only brian sullivan. you want to check that out.
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next, date? dump? or marry? if jamie dimon leaves jpmorgan. actually, we did that. the results are coming up next. a great day or nausea? it's all about timing. same goes for stocks. tonight we're looking at theme parks. bucking up because "mad money" is coming up next. they considered all her assets, even those held elsewhere, giving her the confidence to pursue all her goals. when you want a financial advisor who sees the whole picture, turn to us. wells fargo advisors. who sees the whole picture, turn to us. ♪ (train horn)
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jpmorgan if jamie dimon leaves. final trade, pete. >> caterpillar. >> mos. >> dennis. >> short to bond market. >> guy. i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. catch more "fast" tomorrow my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing feel for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to correct. other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate you and teach you. call me, 1-800-743-cnbc. all weekend, wherever i went, picking up my daughter at the end er
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