remained at least partially in cash in a market that has already gone up so much this year reinforces what's proven true so far this year. buying on any dip could pay off. because there is enough potential sidelined money that is just waiting for the opportunity to do the same. that'll do it for "closing bell" tonight. thanks so much for being with me. i'll see you tomorrow. stay with cnbc. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite in new york city's times square, i'm scott wapner in tonight for melissa lee. here's what we're following on "fast." safety bubble. why one of our guests says it's time to avoid the stocks that have led the rally before it's too late. next frontier. how a $50 smartphone could change the industry forever. stop digging. the gold miners can't seem to get out of a hole, but should the markets trash be your treasure? we're tackling the post-game analysis and setup for tomorrow wour traders theeng. steve grasso, tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan. mike kuo.

but first our top story. the bull run, another record-setting day for stocks. but wall street continues to play catch-up. today goldman sachs putting out a 1750 target on the s&p for this year. the forecast for the bulls continue to run for another three years. at high as 2100 in 2015. dan nathan. believe this? >> listen, they're calling the end of u.s. stagnation, and they think they should see multiple expansion. and -- >> mularket stagnation or econoc stagnation? >> the market's not stagnating up 17% year to date, is it? >> but it's stagnated for a decade. that might be where these guys are going. it's not that difficult to make a call at 1900 when you look at ten years ago we were at 1600. it's not that big on an annualized basis over a decade. but what i would say is from the growth perspective, you know, i follow emerging markets and i'm looking at mexico which printed a gdp of 1.2 on friday. brazil's 1 1/2. russia's at 1.3. the rest of the world is actually growing slower than we are and capital is not as free in these places as it used to

be. one of the things that we're seeing is despite the fact that banks i don't think are really lending here there is a lot of capital sloshing around the u.s. market and i think it can stay here. >> there's only two things that can get in the way of this bull run. it's ben bernanke and it's europe. we've seen that time and time again. those are the only things that could stop the bull run. if that doesn't get in the way, if we don't hear anything out of ben tomorrow, the market continues to climb higher. >> those who want to ask whether this is just another sign of froth in the market, that goldman sachs is now talking about 2100 by the year do-2015, bill gurly, the venture capitalist in silicon valley saying it smells like 1999 all over again. >> 1999 when you think of a bubble, 199 was really it. i don't think this market represents that kind of frothiness. maybe the pendulum is starting to swik maybe a little past fair value but nothing close to that. >> are we too bullish? are people too bullish? >> one of the things people like to talk about is where deflation actually helps people. so the commodity tail -- look at the airline industry. you've had a lot of industries

that have gone through very painful evolutions on the back of consolidation that have been necessary. overcapacity. they've gotten their game together. they've learned how to actually be efficient in their game and now they actually have the benefit of commodity prices that are at their back. this isn't just the airline industry. you can make the argument across the transports. you can make this argument in other parts of the industrial sphere. companies have had to get better through the crisis. they've gotten lean and mean. and now you have a backdrop where maybe things are macro working in their favor. >> but when you say maybe we're too bullish, guys have not covered all their positions just yet. volume has been light. so not everyone is in the water right now. everyone has been forced to cover in a lot of these high beta plays but they still have shorts to be covered out there. so we can go higher. we can all be wrong again. >> take it back to what tim was just saying. the gdp in emerging markets is just not there. when we think about what took us out in 2009, it was this global -- >> it was china. >> and china, you know, could be worse off in the second half. brazil doesn't seem to be growing. mexico you just said at 1.2%. so to me i don't think the u.s.

can decouple as we make new highs every single day. and i'll just make one quick point here. i don't know if you guys noticed here, the ascent of this rally here is getting kind of steep and the vix isn't going down anymore. it kind of stopped at 13. and to me something has to give at some point very soon. i'm not calling a top here. but we don't just go up without pullbacks. what has it been, since december we haven't had three consecutive down days in the dow jones industrial average? it's getting a little overdone here near term. >> let's go routine horn now for our top trades of the day. let's start with grasso at the end. >> you know, i've traded goog p. it's been successful. the trading gods have smiled fon me. i'm back in it. it ripped higher. thought i missed it, i got back in yesterday, i bought more today. >> timmy. >> dan's talking about volatility where it is. we're buying puts so we can stay long. this is kind of 101. but we're actually -- we're selling the iwum. the russell. the cac, which is way too frothy relative to their earnings multiples and this makes us feel better about places. again we have ex-moeshz to more cyclical stuff in europe and yet

in the russell i think you have an index which is going to be much more high beta and if you see a pullback that's where you want to be. >> karen. >> i had to take some money off the table even though we are long bias. for us things get to our spots like children's place is one that we sold today north of 51. hopefully it'll go higher because we still own more. >> danny boy. >> like i was saying, as a trader the vix looks really interesting to me on an asymmetric basis. it can only go down so low. and i think there's a potential for a near-term spike given the way it's been trading. i'm not in the business right now of trying to pick a top. so i'd rather be long vix calls than spy puts. >> our next guest is running with the bulls but says beware of certain areas of the market. seth masters, chief investment officer of bernstein global wealth management joins us us here at the nas. good to see you. you don't think goldman's getting ahead of itself at all with some of these lofty numbers it's put forth? >> not necessarily. if you look at the time horizon, i think they may be a little short in terms of when their expectations are. because i don't think markets go

straight up. we said last year we thought the dow would hit 20,000 by the end of the daxd. i think that's still the right call but it may not be unidirectional. >> our sort of hook on this story is beware of the safety bubble. what does that mean? >> well, i think if you look at what happened since 2008 there's been a steady trend of investors to try to seek safety, whatever that meant to them at the time. initially they went into cash, right after the crash, which was logical. then they started piling into government bonds. and each time they did that of course returns trended toward zero. and most recently what you've seen is within the stock market people have actually been buying what they think are the safest things to buy. >> well, they've been working. the defensive natured stocks are the ones that have worked. >> precisely. which is extraordinarily unusual. this is the first rally i can ever remember that was really driven by the stavest stocks in the market. and what's happened is these relatively high yielding, relatively safe stocks are now much more expensive than the rest of the market. they're usually at a discount. and they also don't have that great earnings dynamics, which

is logical. they also tend to be relatively more leveraged. and that leads to the very odd situation that everything else that's not safe is actually relatively inexpensive, has better earnings dynamics, and better balance sheets. that's what you should own in our view. >> but if i take the other side of that, the things that haven't worked, let's take the complete extreme and look at commodities and look at resource plays, miners, who in many cases have great balance sheets. bhp's got a very great balance sheet. rio tinto doesn't. but ultimately this is a place where this has not been a good trade. and is your call here that we should be in more aggressive plays on growth? because again, when you're in utilities you're not really playing growth. you're playing consistent cash flow stream. >> right. well, not indiscriminately. we think this is going to be a great market for active stock picking and to be very selective, choosing growth stocks that really are not priced at the appropriate premium for the growth they will deliver. i agree you need to be paid for growth. but you have to find the growth to get paid for it. and also on the value side there are some really good stocks at really big discounts and

especially when you look across the market today, considering where the market is, you can buy a lot of value if you look at the stocks where people have been a little bit overworried about -- >> are you naming names? i mean like what? >> no, we don't talk about specific stocks but we certainly were -- >> what's the most attractive sector you see right now? >> what actually is interesting to us is it's not about the sector you're in, it's about cheap stocks and high growth stocks within each sector. that's actually an important -- it's really stock pickers and you don't need to take a lot of sector exposure to win. in fact, we don't think you're paid that much to do that today. >> all right. it's good to see you. thanks for coming in. >> good to see you. >> let's get a quick market flash with josh lipton on two names on the move after hours. josh. >> hey there, scott. two names for you. let's start with merck and these headlines are just dropping, that merck has announced it has entered into an accelerated share repurchasing agreement with goldman sachs. that's to repurchase 5 billion of merck's common stock. the ceo, ken frazier, talking about how this share repurchase demonstrates their commitment to

delivering increased value to shareholders. that stock had already been up about 5% in the regular session. it's up about half a percent now in the after hours. another one we want to mention is saks which is racing higher. that's on this "new york post" headline that saks is higher. strategic alternatives. separately saks earlier today also reporting better than expected sales in the first quarter. scott, back to you. >> josh lipton, thanks so much. we can trade merck first, but the concept of the buyback, i mean, there are naysayers of the rally -- >> that's what we should have been talking about. >> buybacks. >> buybacks and some inflows. but there's no question this can continue. $22 billion a week between inflows and buybacks. that can support this market. >> well, the merck move is kind of interesting. here's a company that's underperformed the sector. we've seen a lot of these names make new highs every day. they have that defensive nature. they have that dividend yield. but all of a sudden now the company says no more. the xlv's up 23% year to date.

wee only up 15%. they're getting in there and buying it. one thing i'll tell su i was noticing the chart of merck just over the last few days. look at the volatility. it's been moving around a whole heck of a lot. since they reported disappointed a couple weeks ago that's not a great sign to me with market highs with when you see like names like merck moving around the way they are. >> it's a good segue to mike kuo who's looking at some unusual options activity ahead of this. kuo, what do you see? >> sort of to dan's point we've seen a big uptick in the options volume in merck in the last couple of days. and today was a good example of that. more than three times its average daily volume. 90,000 contracts. close to 56,000 calls traded. interestingly, biggest buyers of the june 47 calls and obviously that's been paying off nicely. they started trading those earlier in the today. i think basically what may have been happening here is on the volatility maybe some options traders picking up on something going on and they started making some bullish bets and they're going to pay off nicely. >> karen, talk saks real quick before we go to break. >> you know, it is a premier trophy property. so that always entices people.

but the valuation trading in the after-market right now, it is very rich. i think you can wait. see if this is real. >> yeah. that's a monster pop there after hours, some 19%. again, up on a report that the company is exploring a sale. as we head to break, let's get a check on some more after-hours movers. intuit slightly higher on third quarter results. the stock finished the day down 3%, recouping its losses, though, on an earnings beat. revenues in line with street estimates. but fourth quarter guidance came in slightly lower than expected. and another gainer after the bell. and that was a loser during the regular trading session. that being net app, gaining 2%. also on an earnings beat. revenue for the fourth quarter coming in slightly lighter than expected. as did first quarter guidance. but the company announcing a buyback. there you go, timmy. and initiating a dividend of 15 cents a share. coming up, apple's taxing issues. and whether the street is satisfied with ceo tim cook's answers on the hill. plus how $50 smartphones could

change the industry forever even without all those bells and whistles. and later, the odds that the rally is strengthening. what the charts are telling us. more "fast" is up next. [ musick ] i knew there were a lot of tech jobs available out there. i knew devry university would give me the skills that i needed to make one of those tech jobs mine. we teach cutting-edge engineering technology, computer information systems, networking and communications management -- the things that our students need to know in the world today. our country needs more college grads to help fill all the open technology jobs. to help meet that need, here at devry university, we're offering $4 million dollars in tech scholarships for qualified new students. learn more at devry.edu. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 markets on the rise. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 companies breaking through. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 endless possibilities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with schwab, i search the globe for the big movers. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can trade in 30 different markets

tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help me seize opportunities, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 potentially better returns and new ways to diversify. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to get an edge, i use schwab's global research. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 they give me equity ratings on foreign stocks tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 based on things like fundamentals, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 momentum and risk. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i also have access to independent firms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 like ned davis research and economist intelligence unit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with my schwab global account, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can trade directly online in top markets tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 in their local currencies-- when the markets are open. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 plus, their global specialists are on call around the clock. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 there's a world of winners out there. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and now i have a better shot at finding them. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 now get our best global offer! tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trade commission-free online through september 2013 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when you open a schwab global account. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-800-308-7643.

real operations in real places with apple employees selling real products to real customers. we pay all the taxes we owe. every single dollar. we don't stash money on some caribbean island. >> well, more fireworks on capitol hill today. apple's ceo, tim cook, taking questions from senators over accusations the company is avoiding paying taxes. let's get the take on the traders -- this was tim cook's moment here where he finally perhaps stepped out of steve jobs's shadow. >> but he's totally right. you can't blame him because our legislators haven't written the proper -- >> well, of course. but beyond that the significance of the moment for tim cook. right? would this have been as big a moment at 705 for apple? >> maybe not. >> but given what's happened with the stock. how about this? tim cook showed up today.

you know what i mean. >> when you say stepping out of steve jobs's shadow, they would never have done this to steve jobs. he was -- >> i don't think that's true. >> i don't think they ever would have done it. you might have heard chatter about it but he never would have been up on the hill. >> this is the most profitable company in this country. and it may be not on a caribbean island but it's an island that we call ireland. and so you know, here's my side of this. look, i've worked, lived, and made money abroad, and i paid taxes. and it all comes back here. i have offshore accounts and i report them and it comes back here. so we all know that the corporate tax code in this country is so messed up that every major fortune 500 ceo does not want to play here and says basically i'm waiting till the next election before i even do anything. >> which is why i joked earlier that, you know, some people probably thinking today this would have been better as a role reversal, right? with maybe john chambers, tim cook, jeffrey immelt up asking the questions of the senators as to why the tax code in this country from a corporate standpoint has become -- >> a flat tax -- >> -- uncompetitive. >> russia's got a flat tax that by the way works. i would never compare us to russia. but 24% flat tax for corporates?

that's what we need to at least start thinking about simplified the tax code around here, because our corporates are totally disincentivized to do work here. but apple has not done anything wrong. but to say that they have not violated the spirit of this, i think is -- >> let's hit it one more time. karen. in the fact of a big moment for tim cook. the opportunity to step out of jobs's shadow with the world watching. and he performed by all accounts admirably. >> i think actually that this wasn't his moment. i think that as tim's saying, the rules are what the rules are. so apple's doing no different than anybody else. and they're either going to change them for everybody or they're going to leave them the same. i think the thing that will really get the stock going is whether or not he can come up with some revolutionary product or not. i think this is a sideshow. >> yeah. you know, to me i actually think it's a broader issue about repatriating some of that cash. maybe there's a holiday where they can bring back tens of billions of dollars --

>> he said that apple doesn't support the holiday. >> you think about in emerging markets how wages are going up there. maybe there's an opportunity -- >> but there's got to be a permanent holiday as tim said. you have to revamp the whole corporate tax system -- >> in some way shape or form and bring the cash back, revamp the tax system, and do more of that production here. give them more reason to pay the u.s. when the taxes here. >> i still don't feel like we're getting at the heart of the issue. then we're going to move on. you guys don't think this was a big moment? >> you keep, and you're going to find someone who agrees with you. i guarantee you. >> but how could it not be a big moment for tim cook in the guy is for the first time in front of congress. he's on national tv. he performs well. you don't think that's important given what the stock has done? given how much pressure the guy's under from the investing community over what the stock has done. >> well, what's going to be a success coming out of this? >> maybe he wouldn't have come off as good. he came off well. >> i thought he had to spend the first part of this testimony defending how great apple is, which i don't think he needs to do. i thought that sounded a like pathetic. in other words, saying, hey, ook, we're an innovator, we're

the best company in the world, we've got the best talent in the world. i mean, he was out there basically grandstanding in a way that i don't think he needed to do. but i don't think this was his fault. >> well, one of the biggest takeaways, isn't it that john mccain used an iphone? remember he was complaining about all the updates on his iphone for his apps? >> we'll move on. while taxes were front and center for apple today, the emerging markets remained a big focal point for the company. and some new cheaper brands in places like china could make the road for apple more difficult than anticipated. cnbc's jon fortt joins us from las vegas. >> there are signs in the smartphone market that in emerging markets it's starting to act like the worst parts of the pc market at least from a profit perspective. low-end smartphoned powered by chips from media tech, spreadtrum and to some extent qualcomm, though they're a little bit higher end in this equation. they're starting as low as $50, targeting china and india.

these low sxem engineering market phones, they don't really have the bells and whistles. they're more like the iphone 3gs, actually, from three-plus years ago. and they don't necessarily have frontfacing cameras, all the bells and whistles. they're running in a lot of cases android 2.1. i talked to michael sailor, a ceo of micro strategy. he recently wrote a book called "the mobile wave" talking about how this is a really big deal because of the sheer volume of people who are going to be using these cheaper phones in emerging markets and the fact that governments want people to use them. take a listen. >> there are companies, with 280 million mobile subscribers. 950 indians with a mobile phone. well, there are 200 or 300 million of them the government would like to provide direct payments to pop food stamps, social security payments, medical benefits. >> now, qualcomm ceo mike jacobs told me just a couple weeks ago it's only taking 60 days for these mostly chinese o.e.m. companies to build phones around

these reference designed, these $50 phones, get them approved by carriers, and get them out in the market. apple and samsung are going to have to figure out how to compete in that intensely price-sensitive environment, guys. >> all right, jon. jon fortt. >> well, it's not just apple and samsung. it's the whole smartphone supply chain when you think about it. isn't this a redo of what we saw with pcs ten years go when the pricing just collapsed and everything became commoditized? >> nokia. >> nokia's pretty well positioned. but think samsung is positioned. they've got an entire spectrum of price points and they are competing. they've been dominating in china. they've been moving ahead of everybody. apple's gone from number 1 to number 4. they're behind htc. they're behind highway. they're ultimately i think a place where first of all what was pointed out on that tape is that the social net that the governments need to worry about is something that will be done. i think that's a great point. cell phones, mobile phones will continue to be the backbone. you know, india is probably the most untapped and i think the best market for mobile cell phones globally because of the quality of the education and because of the quality of the networks.

i think china's going to be farther under the table than some of these other place ppz. >> time for pops and drops. the big movers of the day today. arch coal. >> guys fwhiengz they feel like they have to buy to cover their shorts. you can't tell me anyone's really bullish on the coal front. if you're lucky enough to ride this up i would take advantage of it and take some profits. >> u.s. steel. timmy. >> well, we're starting to see some rotation. is this a squeeze or are people starting to feel more bullish on the steel front? utilization in the steel sector is about as high as it's been in ten months but iron ore prices, five-month lows and look like they're going lower. china's restocking. this is a tough call. i would stay out of this one. >> mike kuo. carnival cruise line. >> the company lowered their guidance for the fiscal year, which ends this coming november, to somewhere between $1.45 and $1.65 per share. it's down from $1.85 to $2.10. much of this is because they're trying to offer discounts to get people back in after some pretty well-publicized issues including the triumph, which obviously got stranded overseas.

i'd like to see their capex go up. i think this may be a reflection of their lack of investment. >> navios maritime. >> big pop on earnings. they also announced another deal to expand their fleet. we had ross on a couple weeks ago talking about wanting to be in the shipping space. it's all coming together for navios. >> tesla. >> down 2 1/2% today. it's not really a drop. it's like a rounding error. it's up 158% year to day. up 55% since they reported q1 earnings just a week and a half ago. to me with 41% short interest there's going to be a push and a pull here. they just did this billion-dollar capital raise last week where the founder and ceo bought $100 million worth of that thing. i think this thing stays afloat because of that short interest. people are going to wait and see what happens with this potentially revolutionary story. >> all right. and a pop for pot-bellied pigs. farmers in washington state are fiengd the best way to beef up their pigs is to give them the munchies. in a recent test a group of hogs was given excess waste from

washington's budding marijuana industry. the grass-fed animals -- get it -- ended up weighing 20 to 30 pounds above average and the meat was reportedly more savory than that of a sober swine. >> i see jane wells standing right in the middle of that. >> we go off the charts for proof the rally is intact. plus at what point should you consider buying the struggling gold miners? we get some answers next. and why this home improvement chain may not be such a model stock even though shares are soaring. more "fast" is up next. >> "fast money" means trading. everybody's got to bring their best information each and every night. the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. >> it's idea generation. it's all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. as the world has changed, our show has evolved. i am guy adami. i am "fast money." >> i am pete najarian. i am "fast money." i have low testosterone. there, i said it.

see, i knew testosterone could affect sex drive, but not energy or even my mood. that's when i talked with my doctor. he gave me some blood tests... showed it was low t. that's it. it was a number. [ male announcer ] today, men with low t have androgel 1.62% testosterone gel. the #1 prescribed topical testosterone replacement therapy increases testosterone when used daily. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child,

or signs in a woman, which may include changes in body hair or a large increase in acne, possibly due to accidental exposure. men with breast cancer or who have or might have prostate cancer, and women who are or may become pregnant or are breast-feeding, should not use androgel. serious side effects include worsening of an enlarged prostate, possible increased risk of prostate cancer, lower sperm count, swelling of ankles, feet, or body, enlarged or painful breasts, problems breathing during sleep, and blood clots in the legs. tell your doctor about your medical conditions and medications, especially insulin, corticosteroids, or medicines to decrease blood clotting. in a clinical study, over 80% of treated men had their t levels restored to normal. talk to your doctor about all your symptoms. get the blood tests. change your number. turn it up. androgel 1.62%. [ male announcer ] with wells fargo advisors envision planning process,

it's easy to follow the progress you're making toward all your financial goals. a quick glance, and you can see if you're on track. when the conversation turns to knowing where you stand, turn to us. wells fargo advisors. welcome back. diamond wins the rumble in

tampa. jpmorgan shareholders voting in favor of keeping jamie dimon as chairman and ceo of the bank. what does the latest show of support mean for the company and the stock? dan nathan. >> well, in a lot of ways it was an overhang. people were talking about a 10% haircut if jamie lived up to his threat, if he wasn't -- didn't have both roles. so overhang's gone. technically it looks good. everyone seems to love the thing again. so you know, i think it's all clear. >> quairn? >> agree. i'm long. i've been -- i agree that 10% down side was probably factored in. so i'm happy this is removed. >> yeah, i'd say the stock was -- i mean, the overhang was gone two weeks ago, though. this thing has been 7% up even before today's 1.4 move. i think the big deal is the change on the board. there's going to be some changes on the risk management team. lee raymond's going to take a bigger role. that's the former ceo of exxon. this is good news. it's about window dressing up there. i hate to say it. but this is a company that had record profits even after the bull -- the whale, excuse me.

after the whale. and i think more of that comes to these guys going forward. >> there are a lot of people who think the whale was bull, timmy. >> it was bull. >> well done. >> thank you. there may be evidence the rally is in fact getting stronger. let's go off the charts with jeff weiss. chief technical analyst at tejas security groups. good to see you. >> it is good to see you. >> so we're talking the technicals and we're looking at the new s&p support level as the market just keeps creeping higher. >> it does. we're approximately 130 days into this bull market. dating back to the november 16th-19th period of last year. and looking at this chart which is a weekly closing chart, which gives us an aerial view of the market, if you will, we have this dashed line which basically goes back to the march-april period of you can see 2000. this isn't just any chart. we're talking, what, over a decade here. and when we connect those highs and we could actually -- there's actually two lines here that are almost overlaid, you get the highs back, of course, with the

'07 major top, and we have just recently had a weekly close above those lines. both of those lines were between 1580 and 1590. >> does that mean we've broken through some key resistance or are we going to near some other resistance? >> this is a key resistance area. even more so because now we can see support on the s&p on a weekly closing basis, what, 4% away from current levels. in a bull market like this. that's saying something, even if we do have a near-term top here. >> let's talk gold. much talked about in the market given the slide that it's had. what do the charts tell us if anything? you could find a number of reasons in the market why gold may be lower. how about the technical side of things? >> the technicals on gold, i still am not a fan, let's just say, of gold technically. by the way, this s&p chart shows resistance. we could get back to that in a minute. but going back on a monthly closing basis to the 2008 area here, connecting the high here,

here, one low, two lows. and when he broke, i think it's several dozen points ago, that area, that dashed line area, which again, we're talking what, four or five years here, that to me signaled some trouble on gold. short-term rallies maybe, but taking an aerial view am i a fan of gold here? technically not yet. >> to jump in real quick. >> i was going to ask you, grasso-b the resistance levels as you watched the technicals. is that where you were going? >> no, i actually wanted to ask him where do you become a fan of goals? what level are we talking about? is it something real drastic now or do you see something -- >> i think gold is going to have to get over and stay over the low 140s area. at least for several weeks on a daily and on a weekly closing basis several weeks to start to improve it. and when you're in a bull market like this that's traveled the distance it has i'd much rather look at names that are in uptrends than trying to guess when something that's falling is

going to go lower. i don't know if we have time for that s&p chart, scott. >> i don't know if we do. >> i was hoping timmy was going to save us there. >> jeff, let me ask you just about the fact that this is a market that doesn't pull back. and i mean historic -- we've not had more than three days of pullback in the market for over 97 days. in other words, the dow has gone straight, straight higher before having three full days. which isn't asking a lot. and you know, this is something we haven't seen since the '50s and before that the '20s. how do you explain this? >> well, i'll tell you how i explain it. we have broken out of bases on a monthly closing basis that go back years. we've broken out above a trend line going back to the 2002-2003 s&p bottom, which maybe we could show if i'm invited back. which again, these lines have been intact for so long, that's what's giving the market staying power. but i do see some resistance right in this vicinity.

1670, 1680. that area. 1690. i think we may have a pause. >> all right. it's good to see you. >> it's good to see you. thanks for having me. >> be well. coming up, the top miners to buy if gold prices really are bumping along a bottom. steve grasso and dan nathan square off over a -- over a -- >> over? >> we'll be right back. >> why not? but we can still help you see your big picture. with the fidelity guided portfolio summary, you choose which accounts to track and use fidelity's analytics to spot trends, gain insights, and figure out what you want to do next. all in one place. i'm meredith stoddard and i helped create the fidelity guided portfolio summary. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. [ engine revs ]

♪ [ male announcer ] just when you thought you had experienced performance, a new ride comes along and changes everything. ♪ the 2013 lexus gs, with a dynamically tuned suspension and adjustable drive modes. because the ultimate expression of power is control. this is the pursuit of perfection. [ whirring ] [ dog barks ] i want to treat more dogs. ♪ our business needs more cases. [ male announcer ] where do you want to take your business? i need help selling art. [ male announcer ] from broadband to web hosting to mobile apps, small business solutions from at&t have the security you need to get you there. call us. we can show you how at&t solutions can help you do what you do... even better. ♪

welcome back to "fast money" live at the nasdaq marketsite. shares of home depot climbing today after the home improvement chain raised its full-year forecast. the company citing the housing market recovery. but there's concern home depot's stock could soon come under some pressure. let's launch our street fight. grasso is our bull. dan is the bear. both have a total of 90 seconds to make your cases. grasso starkts us off. >> this is an easy one. first off, what do you hear when they report earnings raise and beat? that's what you want to hear out of a stock. yes, the stock chart looks parabolic. but you could have said that a year ago, basically. you want to continue to buy this one. the buyback is still intact. you do get a yield there.

how many times have you bet the wrong way on home depot? it's still safe to be in the name. >> you know, those are all great points. i bet against it wrongly a couple times during this run. actually, on a street fight back when the stock was 67 1/2 two months ago. here's the thing. okay? the stock's up 26% year to date. like you said, they've got that beat. things are pretty good over there. they said they're going to buy back between 3, 3 1/2 billion dollars more of stock. if i was them at all-time highs with the market at all-time highs with a valuation about 22 times expected earnings, i would kind of leave that money in the kitty and wait a little bit to buy on a pullback. >> you would. but that's what you want to do. you want to be doing what the company's doing. there's a lot of reasons why insiders will sell stock. but when the company actually buys stocks with the liquidity being as light as it has been, with electronic trading, this is enough juice to get the stock to the next level. you want to look for 85 to the up side -- >> what? >> to me, you know, i would not be committing new capital to the thing right here. it's worked very well. you got the beat and the raise. i'd look to buy it on a pullback.

i think there's cheaper ways to play the housing recovery. for instance, ford that has a much better dividend yield at 2.7 versus 2%, trades at half the wal vaigs and has potentially the same growth over the next couple years. i think that's a better way, a bit of a laggard to play the housing recovery than home depot at alltimes highs-time highs. >> gavel comes down. we go to the desk for the verdict. >> i'm going to have to go with steve just because i think the underlying fundamentals of the company are fine. i think dan makes a very good point. at 25 times there's no value here. but ultimately these guys even said, the may numbers, their look into their current quarter is even better than what they just came out of. i think everything the fed is doing is working on this front for these guys. not for everybody. and i think you stay here. >> mike kuo, do you agree? >> you know, i think this thing looks a little bit stretched. the valuation's a little bit high. look, the whole story here is everybody thinks they're going to blow through to new high sales. they had over $85 billion of revenues in 2006. they probably will get to exceed that number sometime soon with much better margins. but the thing is that's totally priced into the valuation.

so i would be a seller. >> all right. tell us who you think won our street fight as well. tweet us @cnbcfastmoney. use either the #bull or the #bear. we're boeing goi we're going to have the results at the end of the show. downgrade by s&p, that firm saying shares are in their words expensive. gold mining stocks, however, tumbling to levels last seen in 2008. as gold prices hover near 52-week lows. despite the slide our next guest says miners are still a buy, and he's brought along three reasons why. let's take a deeper dive with patrick chidley. senior vice president covering metals and mining -- >> i thought it was joe kernan. does anyone else think he looks like joe kernan? a little bit? >> better-looking. good to see you here. what are the three reasons you have? for gold miners, why is the time to buy. >> firstly, i have to say at hsbc we're moderately bullish on gold from here. we're a little cautious obviously because of what's just

happened. but we do see gold rising up to sort of the 1550, 1600 level by the end of the year. >> what's going to get it there? >> i think what we've seen in the gold market has been driven by a couple of factors. firstly, obviously, we've seen some investors exit gold positions as a result of some portfolio rotation moves. secondly, i think we've also seen a big short position built on comex. and i'm not sure that short position is sustainablsustainab. i would see that short position coming off and therefore we should see a short covering rally. >> aren't there more headwinds, though, if you look at big investors, pension funds, mutual funds, getting rid of gold, even demand around the world hasn't offset that. the stock market rally in and of itself, right? is negative for gold, is it not? >> i think demand around the world has offset what we've seen in terms of the etf selling, but unfortunately we've got this big short position on the comex that's come in and i think

that's what's really driven the price down. >> what we're seeing in gold on some level may be a metaphor to what happened in the credit bubble. when things are good, there are a lot of people that actually could override very difficult balance sheets and once credit became difficult we saw a lot of companies floating debt to the surface. in terms of the miners a lost projects that looks very good at $1800 gold don't look so good. if anything, what we're seeing is i would think this would be a good time for stock picking for guys like you because you're seeing a lot of guys that actually have good high-quality, not necessarily high growth minds but they're going more for a yield perspective and a yield business and then there's guys that are splitting up their high-yield business and going for that. this scares me if i look at at least a lot of the projects because they can quickly be made not cash feasible. >> definitely. if gold prices stay down where they are right now i think there's a lot of projects that are going to remain shelved. and that's what we're seeing right now, is the companies are shelving projects. capex is coming down. they're getting through projects that they're actually building right now, of course. but the capex will come down,

say, next year and the year after if the gold price stays pretty low. obviously, if it bounces back it's a different story. >> patrick, what most people don't realize is that gold miners outperform on the way down but when gold actually starts rallying it's almost 2-1 that the goal miners lin crease in value quicker than the actual metal. everyone stays away from the miner. is that why you're making this premise? >> yeah. our kool call is basically driven directly by the gold price. we do believe that gold stocks, gold equities are leveraged to the gold price. particularly when the gold prices come down. because obviously when your margins are thinner your leverage is going to be much bigger on the way up. >> patrick, it's good to see you. thanks for coming in. patrick chidley, hsbc global metals and mining research. dan? >> i would add one other point. the volatility we've seen in the metals in the last month, this is not bullish activity by any means. i mean not just for the actual underlying metals but i mean the overall market the way we're starting to see these things move around at really important technical levels. we talked about gold, we just

looked at that chart before. on the gld that 120 level, you break that -- or the 130, excuse me, you're going straight to 120 again. so to me i'm not certain what the fundamentals here are. the whole world, every central bank has told us systemic risk is off the table. i'm not sure what the long case in gold is anymore. >> all right. well, up next what activity in the options market is implying about hewlett-packard fewer than 24 hours before the pc maker reports its earnings. more "fast money" is up next. ♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. and you? well, you're the chief life officer. you just need the right professional to help you take charge. ♪ to help you take charge. she's always been able it's just her way.day. but your erectile dysfunction - that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use

helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial.

welcome back to fms. i'm josh lipton. net app reports the data storage company beats on the bottom line, just misses on the top line, looking ahead, projecting first quarter earnings below what the street expected. but the company also now planning to buy back 1 billion in shares. quarterly cash dividend of 15 cents per share. last week we did see a report saying that paul singer's elliott and management had been pressing them to change their board and boost shareholder value. scott, back to you. >> josh, thanks. who has a thought on this one on the desk, netapp? >> here's old tech, hardware related. what do investors want to see? they wanted to see that dividend payment which they didn't have and they wanted to see a meaningful buyback and they got it. to me this is one that falls tone a reasonable valuation. it did not have the strength of

balance sheet or the growth profile as some of the other tech names that have been working in the cyclical roh faigs but i think it should have a floor in this now because of the buyback. ? . >> hp, the company the best performing stock in the dow this year. do options traders think the rally will continue? mike kuo, tell us what the options action's telling you. >> certainly some of the options traders think so. one of the most active options we saw today, the most active were the weekly 23 1/2 calls. opening buyers of these things paying about 12 cents. that's a very speculative bet, of course, because that's betting the stock will be up more than 10% by week's end. but on the other side of the trend longer-term players were buyers of puts. the guys that are speculating just put a little money on the table maybe they announce good news but the secular head winds persist so we saw bearish bets overall. >> it's time for the get bad and the ugly with timmy seymour. the good back in february tim took the bull side on a street fight in february and here's

what he said. >> this is a reaffirmation that management knows what they're doing. price matching means they can compete with 19 online retailers and local competitors. i can go into best buy, do the showrooming and buy it there. technically, stock in a very good place. >> all right. well, nice call. shares of best buy dipping today on earnings but they're up 52%. since timmy made that call. make best buy the second best performer in the s&p. this year. you want to comment on that? >> i would say there was a lot of short interest. i think the stock actually looks like it's priced a lot of this good news in even though i think the showrooming kind of demise of this company is largely over. i think they've solved that. >> now on to the bad. a week after his winning call on best buy tim was back in the ring, this time for a street fight on coach. take a listen to the bear case. >> even if guy is buying more man purses for himself and his

buddies, this is not going to move the needle. the low-hanging fruit is very much gone there and they have to reinvent themselves in asia and this is something i think with intense competition michael kors, other people that are in this space already, very difficult. >> i like that he's not only buying them for himself but his buddies as well. >> he's done a great job because look at this price -- >> he's a generous guy. coach is up nearly 30% since that call, by the way. but today the stock was downgraded at morgan stanley. what do you say now? are you still bearish on the company? >> i should be more bearish now, right? i think ultimately this stock was trading at least at a discount to its peer group. at this point it is not. it is trading in line. even though their strategy in china is working and obviously by proven by adami and his buddies the men's strategy is also working. i would probably say this is at least an equal weight. it's not a stock i would be long here. but i've been wrong. >> now it's time for the ugly. a record-breaking reptile was recently caught by an 18-year-old hunter in texas. the goliath gator measured, wow, 14 feet in length, tipping the

scales at 800 pounds. >> wow. >> making it the heaviest ever bagged in the state of texas. >> that's a lot of boots right there. >> coming up on "mad money," cramer's got the ceo of whole foods. that stock's at a fresh new high. plus two new stocks about to hit the street. and should you bid for ebay? jim sees what the charts have to say. all coming up at the top of the hour. do not miss that. up next, the tweets lighting up the "fast money" twitter feed. we trade them live. so stay with us. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market.

♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade.

sometimes it's just tough to buy the losers and sell the winners. so let's play a little hoed 'em fold 'em now with five stocks soaring to record highs. first up norfolk southern is right on frac. the railroad company among the best performers in the transports this year. timmy, what do you do, hold it? fold it? >> i think you hold it. you have to be very careful. the val swaigs still in the range, 14 1/2. i think these guys have intermodal at their back. i think we all know about the coal business which is getting slower. >> whole foods hitting a record

high as well. the supermarket chain has a 2 for 1 stock split coming you. hold it or fold it? >> i think you've got to hold this thing. i think there's probably some support at 100 but these guys are lagging. up 15% year to date. there's great growth. i think you hold on to it. >> ralph lauren, karen. >> looking for a bull case, and other than it's gone up so much i can't find one. so i wouldn't buy it here. that's a fold 'em. >> grasso, cabot oil and gas hitting new high. what do you do? >> you want to hold this one as well. the other name in the nat gas space, eqt. eqt, cog are the best names to play from the long side. >> mikey kuo. western. >> it is still trading at a big discount to the market because they continue to face secular head winds in the hard drive space. but it's not going to catch up to the market. you've got a little more upside. >> you tweet it we trade it. let's get to some of your tweets to our crew today. dan, how do we rationalize up vix and the spy? simple protection, is the

question. >> the vix measures both purchases of puts and calls. and so to me, you know, like i said at the top of the show you have this asymmetric situation where the vix can only at 13 go to 0. but in the last seven months we've had three moves of 50% or higher. so to me i think this one makes sense for protection, like i said, rather than the puts. >> grasso, with europe still slow what about f, ford? >> ford, you know what trumps everything? momentum trumps everything. so don't worry about fundamentals. don't worry about technicals. obviously, technicals, momentum hand in hand, but ford, i don't think it's out of gas just yet. but i would keep a $15 mark on it. >> any thoughts on casino companies in china like lvs or mgm or wynn? >> in the case of lvs you're planning on these guys giving capital back to investors. the trends in china have slowed down remarkably but they're still very good but most notably i think if we're in a bull market here these strokz people are going tone. but watch las vegas sands. that's my favorite. >> karen, some news that plays

on the after-hours of saks perhaps being on the market. do you think macy's would be interested? >> there would be tremendous synergies there, no doubt. but at this valuation i think of ma macy's as more disciplined than that. so no. >> mike kuo. ahead of valuations. >> i didn't hear what you just asked me. you'll have to repeat it. >> what do you think of hewlett-packard ahead of earnings? hewlett-packard. >> thank you very much. good. i got that one. just continued basic secular headwinds. there's some of that bullish expectation in those weekly call buyers might be overstated. i'm with the put traders here. >> up next the winner of our street fight. we tally the twitter votes. and your first move tomorrow. "fast money" returns after this. >> you can pick up a lot more than dinner from your next grocery trip like a stock that's up nearly 20% this month. want to know how to cash in on your next shopping trip? then stick around because i'm checking it out on "mad money," coming up next.

the ocean gets warmer.

the peruvian anchovy harvest suffers. it raises the price of fishmeal, cattle feed and beef. bny mellon turns insights like these into powerful investment strategies. for a university endowment. it funds a marine biologist... who studies the peruvian anchovy. invested in the world. bny mellon. [ agent smith ] i've found software that intrigues me. it appears it's an agent of good. ♪ [ agent smith ] ge software connects patients to nurses to the right machines while dramatically reducing waiting time. [ telephone ringing ] now a waiting room is just a room. [ static warbles ]

all right. we asked you to weigh in our street fight a little while ago and you said, drum roll please, grasso was the winner. >> that's nice. thank you. >> how's that feel? >> all right. now we do our final trades as we go around the horn. mike kuo, you're up first. >> mkc, mccormick. i'd sell it. >> grasso. >> eqt, long. >> timmy. >> bhp, abilibilliton.

buy. >> karen. >> target, if they miss chance to buy. >> juppe call spreads are the best trade on the board. >> thanks for watching. i'm scott wapner. don't forget to catch halftime tomorrow noon eastern, "fast money" "mad money" with jim cramer begins right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, just trying to make you a little money. my job is not to pertain entertain you but educate you so call me on 1-800-cnbc. many people are relying on months-old surveys to make their investment decisions. i get that. they allow the media t