Skip to main content

tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  May 24, 2013 6:00am-9:01am EDT

6:00 am
it's friday, may 24th, the official start to summer. i can't sleep quite yet. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we are gearing up for that three-day weekend. we start this morning with the markets. the stocks at this point look like they are indicated slightly lower. those dow futures down by about 18 points coming after u.s. stocks are coming off their first two-day losing streak in more than a month. the nasdaq and the s&p 500 are both indicated lower, as well. s&p 500 futures down by about 4 points. in overseas action, the nikkei finished the day up 0.9%. not much of a rebound considering yesterday's drop.
6:01 am
but it was a volatile session. at one point, the benchmark average plunged by another 3% drawing it below the ferchb mark index for the first time in three yeex. that tells you how fast this run has come. and the early picture in europe is going to show you there are some similar things to what's happening here. modest declines akrod the board. the dax down by about 64 points. the ftse off by about 0.6%. we will have more from our colleagues overseas in just a few minutes. on our agenda for the u.s. markets today, only one piece of economic numbers that are coming out. april durable goods, those will be hitting the tape at 8:30 eastern time. that headline number is expected to rise by 1.3%. and in corporate news this morning, procter & gamble is
6:02 am
bringing back a.g.lafley. the change is coming as some invest verse have been pushing for more improvements. p&g unveiled a restructuring program last february. we talked a lot about that on the program. a few stats to chew on this morning, during bob mcdonald's time at ceo, p&g's stop stock was up 54%.. that underperformed many of the company's competitors. during lafley's tenure, p&g was up 79%. we're going to talk more about the managing chain of yales. bill ackman, he's been pushing for something to happen there. sources tell me he did not know about this. he was not briefed on this .frankly he had little to nothing to do with it. this was a decision that bob
6:03 am
ultimately made, oddly enough, from what i understand inside the board room. he was pushed. i don't want to say that he was not pushed. but he had been pushed, frankly, since last june and july at the start of some of these conversation peps. >> it was personal. >> and it wasn't a decision where he makes the decision, they called lafley and this has been happening. this has been sort of in the works, even though i'm sure mr. ackman will be taking -- >> you know, lafley got all the outperformance and then -- although, you know -- >> i think the two investors last night who said their expectation this morning was that you'd get a mixed view of this. some people who are going to say, fantastic, they're going back to the old p&g. some are saying, not fantastic because the old p&g was too big, too wieldy. it happened early on in his tenure when he left the company. >> there were some people who said, look, there was a lot of
6:04 am
price hikes and other things that have been put in. and there was pushback from that. the timing may have more to do with that than bob mcdonald. >> it's a different world. 60 is the new 40. but in the old p&g, you'd have to retire at 65 and he is 65. he'll be 66 next month. but here is the tough critique. the tough critique was mcdonald was lafley's hand bick successor. if you didn't like him and he recognized that aglafley ultimately is going to have to pick a new person, because this is probably a two, three-year stint. but this is really about picking the next talent for the future of the company and if you want to argue he didn't do so hot the first time, that is the critique the first time. >> 75 and 65. i've got all these numbers playing into any own feelings about myself. but 75, he could stay maybe
6:05 am
longer than that. you can't know everything that's going to happen when you pick someone. >> i'm with you, though. i think 75 can do 65. >> you have no reason to think that. >> we're all getting older. but the biggest reason i think that is they're all getting over and -- >> but the 75 is the new of 5. how do you like this? is it right hand or left hand? >> why don't dow the boy scout one or the girl scout one with the three fingers. >> any fingers are crossed behind my back. >> your kids were already gay, some of them, right? and you weren't going to check their credentials on the way in. you weren't allowed to be a gay kid in scouts? and now you can't have gay teachers, you can't have gay principals?
6:06 am
>> that's the difference. it's a private organization. they get to do what they want. >> but they say they won't revisit this. >> it doesn't matter. they ticked off people on both sides of the argument. >> what, they're going to convert the kids? come on. >> they tried to find some sort of compromise and in the end they ended up ticking off both sides. >> i don't like it. >> are you okay? >> i'm good to go. >> we're going to talk more about this throughout the show, the lafley story. >> yeah. i love p&g. i'm from cincinnati. it's iconic. i use a lot of their products, hair care. i think you're impressed. >> are you a gillette man? >> i'm a brawn/electric guy at times. and other times, maybe on a monday morning if i haven't shaved over the weekend -- >> do you know we have a lot in common. >> i'm not only the hair club client, i'm the president. >> mpach, as you mature and age,
6:07 am
we're going to become a lot more like each other. i'm working on you. >> you know what? newspapers are -- the daily news, you know what i mean? "the daily news -- >> i know where you're going now. >> they don't even care if there's any other news in the world. they don't care if there's any other news in the world. it's a normal newspaper. >> i didn't even see that this morning. >> it's not even the post. it's a tabloid, but just so they can get that spank in there. >> can you imagine if he wins as a mayor and he's there for four years? >> he's not going to win. >> the tabloids would love it. it's a new headline every day. >> they say there's more pictures out there. please, if you have them, let's see them. send them into "squawk box." i'm begging you, if you know anyone that has weiner pictures that haven't come out yet, please, i'm appealing to you personally. >> why? why do you want them? >> because i want to see them. number one, it will --
6:08 am
>> incident will end this whole thing? >> i just want to see them. is he posing? is he looking at himself again? this is unacceptable! go away! he should fought be -- we don't want you here. >> i will admit that i follow him on twitter now just to see if he sends something out any more. >> are you -- >> no, i just want to know if he sends something out to his followers. >> can you imagine after he hit 245 he goes -- we're not with him. who knows. why aren't you -- you're cautious against. you're still cautious. >> why do that? >> would you take a picture of -- >> no, i'd be scared to take a picture. >> so would i. >> if i was going to take a picture of my weiner out on the grill and tweet it. >> and say it's an -- >> no. i was going to tweet a picture of a hot dog cooking on the
6:09 am
grill because they're delicious. there's a picture of my weiner. but i didn't do it. anyway -- >> right now, it's time for the global markets report. let's get to another man who may have something to say about this. ross westgate is standing by in london. how about you, ross? >> pictures? are we talking -- >> hold on, ross. hold on. i said -- doug cass. i'm sorry, doug, i'm not trying to do this. it was just in the teleprompter. are futures not point to go a higher open? you're only bearish at 900 on the s&p. he's pointing out that the futures -- how are futures pointing to a higher open? i apologize. my mistake. i shouldn't read the prompter. i should do the math myself. you're right. they're appoint to go a lower open. sorry, boss. go ahead. oh, man. >> okay. yeah, we are weaker here, joe, as well. i thought we were talking about
6:10 am
barbecues. here we go. four to six advancers being outpaced by decliners at the moment. we actually did start off the other way around. it was about six to four the first thing this morning after a 2% fall yesterday for most of the major indices over here. you can see we're at the lows of the session, down about 0.3%. things have changed in the last hour, though. recap where we stand. that means the ftse at the moment, down 0.6%. the cac 40 is fairly flat. the xetra dax down 0.7%. the ftse mib is fairly flat with the krk 40 at the moment. the ifo came in much better than expected. 105.7 for may. it was expected at 104.5. also boosted by recent action from the ecb. we have also confirmation, german gdp the first quarter. it's still fairly weak, as well. but the core is weak. we've also been keeping our eyes on what's going on.
6:11 am
volatile session in japan. 3%, down 3%. technology, real estate, banks again are the weaker sector. only health care at the moment is up here in european trade. and i've talked about the volatility, the nikkei you up %, down 3%, it finally closed up 0.9%. the dollar/yen, 0.4% down. 101.59. above 100.83. but we are swinging around the volatility. still quite a bit in play. we have just moved lower in the last hour. back to you. >> all right, ross, thank you. there's no memorial -- you don't do a memorial day, do you? >> no, we -- it's the witzen bank holiday in the uk. >> who is witzen? >> same day?
6:12 am
>> that's weak, the what? and it's a bank day? who is witzen? >> public holidays are called bank holidays. >> we don't like those. we're scared of those. who is witzen? you don't even know, do you? >> yeah. i think it's sort of a religious -- >> oh, okay. >> i think it's a religious bank holiday. >> like an anglican thing or -- >> yeah. >> all right. i got it. i think i'm going to leave it at that. he think i might be kind of episcopalian now. >> you know, we were given these -- did you see those? >> the poppies. >> jason trenter sent in. >> what are those? >> it's something that they do in honor of -- and it's from a poem i think from -- no, it's a poem from 1916 in honor of memorial day ownering the troops. >> oh, that we should wear, yeah. >> they're upstairs. >> my son asked me, he goes,
6:13 am
these are for the dead ones or for the live ones. he thinks veterans are for the live guys and memorial is for the ones we're remembering. but these are for the guys and why we have wa we have. we're talking about some of this dey today because we're here and not here on monday. driving some of the market action this week, st. louis fed president jim bullard on cnbc europe this morning. >> i do think there's one wild card, though, for the data in the u.s. and that is that the inflation numbers have come in quite low. inflation has been only about 1% over the last year. this is well below our target and i think that before we would see -- at least before i would
6:14 am
be in favor of tapering, i would like to see some reassurance that inflation was going to move back towards target by a preferred measure. >> joining us now, kevin gittes, j.j. and i'm sorry, here is -- you know, i think about things a lot. i can't help myself sometimes. but when they first announced 85 been i said, you've got to be kidding me. that's a lot of money. hopefully this won't be for long, but we've gotten to the point now where we think we can't live without it. is that where we are? is this going to a 2014 to 85 a month? >> well, i wonder. i think they're going to start
6:15 am
tapering them off this year. later this year in the final quarter. markets were a initial reaction. investors are going to panic, stock prices -- we don't know that. ultimately, it's going to be the underlying face of economic activity. my sense is the ten-year treasury bond yield even after a tapering off of qe will not be much different than his current 2%. >> you watch, is it a miscue? business as usual, or did people overreact to what happens this week? >> they always overreact when the fed announces the start of a firm monetary -- >> they they did announce something. >> well, they're testing the market's reaction for now.
6:16 am
you can't do this forever and ever. >> i wonder whether -- j.j. -- i'm sorry, kevin, just because inflation is quiet, i mean, you know, i understand what happened in japan, too. but would you keep going until you had inflation higher? i mean, is that wa we need to do? can't we get the fed out of the way and let the chips fall where they may? do we have to wait for inflation to get back to 2%? >> i think there is some key things the fed has talked about so the inflation rate being so low gives the fed the time and the ability to keep doing qe3 for as long as it takes to stimulate the economy. we're kind of going back and forth.
6:17 am
>> yeah. we've seen this act before. we've seen it for four straight years. i think we're in the middle of that pattern, which gives us a lot of time to provide the stimulus. i agree, the stimulus has to end or at least be tapered off at some point in time. but i don't think the fed is on any type of time schedule unless you're richard bullard or maybe you have a cage for that. really it's about monitoring the economy. they get tin flagdz rate for free and looking at inflation and growth right now, they're not exactly where we want them to be. >> what statistics or metrics are you talking about that are indicated that have you under 2%?
6:18 am
the employment numbers have been better. >> the employment numbers have been better, but, you know, at 200,000 a month in jobs, we're going to generate a little bit over 2% growth. so we've averaged somewhere around there. the housing numbers are really good. and then the housing numbers have been trending well. they're back to unemployment and the unemployment rate. are we reducing the unemployment rate or are people falling out of the labor force? >> did you say under 2% for the quarter? >> well, it's a possibility. we're going to be on either side of 2.5%. we're going to test that margin in this quarter, i bet you. >> i think it's going to be around 2%. >> 275% in the first quarter, 2.7% for the second quarter, but the important fact is, the u.s. economy remains safely danced
6:19 am
from recession. we simply don't have any overhangs of too much labor. too many unsold newly built homes that otherwise might push the economy. >> and if you added the sequester and the payroll tax back, that effect would be at 3%. higher by an underlying strength. then the underlaying strength is -- >> the private economy is doing quite well. i think for us, if we were less afraid of a little bit of wage softening in the labor market, we will have more in terms of jobs growth and faster economic growth over time. >> that's not what we're hearing from ceos yesterday. cody is not optimistic about it. >> yeah, but i -- he had some adjustment i think in terms of labor costs. that could help some of the new entrants into the labor market. that being said, we had a rough quarter for sales growth, less than 1%. indications are that that is
6:20 am
going to do better in the second quarter and it better do better, otherwise we could find ourselves in trouble as far as the demand for labor is concerned. >> thanks, john. kevin gittez, thank you. now i'm bag to june. i think do ten in june, 7.5. just start. >> i think december. >> december? >> yeah. i think they're going to do it before 2014, but -- >> i can understand cody going from 70 to 80, but it's infrastructure, too. >> and he wants the title toes be taken care of. >> and he wants the corporate tax rate at zero. you were looking on in horror. >> no, no, i would go to zero, but more people don't appreciate -- >> what percent are corporate profits of the tax revenue takes in right now? >> not a lot. >> 200 billion out of 1.2?
6:21 am
>> yeah. your soulmate, whatever it is. >> but he goes off on why we have the worst tax structure in the world. what the corporations are doing. >> i haven't read that. >> you've got to read it. payroll taxes are higher. and he conflates payroll taxes as the percent of the total even though it's an insurance policy, basically. or social security. but completes that with overall tax. >> i will have to read it. >> he's got some tough things about -- he's crazy. there you go. anyway, coming up, all that is old is new again. a.g.lafley returning toes helmet of procter & gamble. shares up about a lot over 1%. we're going to talk about that change with one of our favorite gurus. that's coming up next. but first, as we head to a break, a look at yesterday's winners and losers.
6:22 am
>> that's wonderful. >> bravo. >> i loved that. >> it was great. >> it was pretty good. >> it wasn't bad. >> there were parts of it that were worse. >> it was pretty terrible. >> it was bad. >> it was awful. >> boo! wife, mother, marathoner. but one day it's just gonna be james and her. so as their financial advisor, i'm helping them look at their complete financial picture -- even the money they've invested elsewhere -- to create a plan that can help weather all kinds of markets. because that's how they're getting ready, for all the things they want to do. [ female announcer ] when people talk, great things can happen. so start a conversation with an advisor who's fully invested in you. wells fargo advisors. together we'll go far.
6:23 am
6:24 am
34er78al day weekend is here. let's get the weather forecast from todd santos. >> travelwise, 65 at laguardia.
6:25 am
we have had some heavy rain certainly during the overnight hours. there's a look at it around the tri state area right now. really not exceptional as far as the heavy rainfall is concerned. may be a few isolated thunderstorms today. travelwise, not bad aside from the low cloud ceiling. boston get ago nice break. central massachusetts, a few light showers here and there and a lot of that chilling up into the into eastern portions of maine, the northern reaches of the i-95 corridor. that's the pattern right now. notice a number of these areas, you still see some stifling on the radar. even down towards d.c. we'll see a persistent setup. slow moving pressure. upstate new york, you might even find a few areas of light snowfall. hard to even think about that this time of year. that will mean cooler temperatures for the rest of us. 65 in new york. 69 in boston. so the cold air is not quite out towards the coastline. slow moving low.
6:26 am
that means it's going to be there in place for the holiday weekend. a chance for showers your saturday. notice the cooler temperatures, numbers in the 50. that would be temperatures you would find about april this time of year. into sunday, still looking at showers. boston, you're like leg to see at least a break in those showers on monday. new york, you should see that spit weekend looking better by sunday. memorial day forecast, sunday might find some of those clouds. temperatures back into the 70s, so beautiful if you're heading out towards the beaches. a few other areas i should mention, dallas, houston both looking good. outside san antonio, a few thunderstorms across the area today. you could see isolated severe weather. southwest nebraska and northwest kansas. andrew. >> thank you for that. we're going to get back to our top corporate story of the morning. a.g.lafley returning to the sweet seat of procter & gamble. but is bringing back a former ceo good management strategy?
6:27 am
jeff sonnenfeld is going to join us. jeff, you seem to have some mixed views on what this all means. >> thanks, andrew. i had written a book on this called "the hero's farewell." monarchs who stay on for life until they die in office, fred smith, for example, at federal express or something. that's not what we have here. ambassadors, they call them, like at intel. you have them passing the baton, grateful to one another. here, when you have somebody that comes back from the past, say michael dell, we've seen that or howard schultz of starbucks, the legendary movement return to power to steve jobs, it can be great. there are other times, though, where they can undermine their successor. phil me will he will he of nike, harold germane of att, keep wiping out potential successors. sometimes you don't know what their agenda is, if they've undermined the successor.
6:28 am
in this case, when you're out of the building and you're brought back in, it's pretty exciting to have somebody who knows the ground, know tess key constituents, moos where the bodies are buried. that's the positive. the down side is, of course, what do they contribute to the current mess? >> it's a measure of the man for us. >> he is fantastic. he is a ceo's ceo. everybody reveres this guy. aglafley was -- one of the things that was not in any of the profiles today, even in some of your competitor spres press, is that he was explored an awful lot for the emerging market, which is the unfinished agenda at p&g. act mapp was concerned about sales growth and what was happening with bob mcdonald. there was a faltering movement of opportunity in china. that was a.g.lafley's great strengths. he got a restart in china. that's a great strength.
6:29 am
a.g. lafley was very good at ru structuring. he came in, cut out like 17,000 jobs. >> is your sense, though, that, you know, some people say he contributed to what is arguably become an unwieldy structure? meaning it is a very big company? some say it needs more focus. that is one of bill ackman's big arguments. he wants innovation. ultimately, if that is the construct that a.g. lafley created, could you see him restructuring the firm and ek braing it up rather than rebuilding it? does that continue or does he shift gears? >> he can do it. i think he can come in and make a difference. in the second world war, generals patton, montgomery, churchill, they came back out of moth ball retirement to lead the cause to greater glory. in lafley's case, he stepped down in 2009 in july. guess what? in august of 2009, they had the
6:30 am
biggest fall in sales since he had taken off. a lot of the success in p&g were acquisitions. the uncompleted job was left to deal with. it could be mcdonald was a very good coo, and you see that a lot of times, the great lieutenant doesn't move into the boss's job and understand the big picture issues, as well. he may have been too rigid. lafley does not have any religious zell yotry to anything in the past he can revisit these and deliver efficiency. he's the one ta got them. i think he knows where those opportunities are. >> there have been some changes at procter & gamble since ackman first came in. people are trying to figure out
6:31 am
how effective those changes have been. what's your sense of what they're done too this point if it set the company on the right course. >> you have to wonder about some of those and some of the leadership changes. what does this mean for -- you've got six or seven people in major global brand roles. if the new guys come in, by the way, the new guy who is the old guy, comes in as chairman and ceo, he's not coming into some of those title this week. furthermore, people are saying, how do you get rid of a ceo not performing well? he had both titles. there were no problems getting rid of it. that was just the roost of canard. but i worry about these changes. we're likely to see some changes at the senior roles. that's an issue. there's going to be, i think, a morale down issues that are great down n ranks. but at the very top, i think some concerns. this is an amazing board, by the way.
6:32 am
you've got five current ceos on this board like your guest yesterday, meg whitman, terry lundgren, it's an amazing board. there's no hidden political agenda here of anybody looking for work. these people are -- and they can sympathize with the ceo in this spot. >> jeff, thank you. we're going to leave it there. we appreciate your perspective this morning. see you soon. coming up, summer some day will arrive. what a spring. >> rain, rain, go away. >> yeah. rain, rain. and you were golfing again. >> yeah. >> i had bad luck with the golf. >> that doesn't mean it's time to take a vacation from investing. a top performing money manager shares a few ideas next. first, though, watch the show today if you'd like or please watch the show. if it's up to you, do it. if you don't want to -- i'm not telling you you have to. the retailer reported a bigger
6:33 am
than quarterly expected loss saying cooler weather hurting its sales. investors worry that the company's turn around could take longer than expected. [ engine revving ] ♪ [ male announcer ] every car we build must make adrenaline pump and pulses quicken. ♪ to help you not just to stay alive... but feel alive. the c-class is no exception. it's a mercedes-benz, through and through. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services.
6:34 am
6:35 am
6:36 am
welcome back to "squawk box." joining us on set, david steinberg. thanks for being here this morning. do you think we have seen a tectonic shift this week in the markets and how you view things? i know you've thought that the fed has been driving things to this point. did the fundamental fundamentally change the picture this week inspect. >> no. i think the media is on top day after day after day, when are they goitaper?
6:37 am
when are they going to stop? doug has been trying to be clear with everybody, they're going to keep things court. it's bag shift in the united states. it takes nautical miles to turn the queen mary. >> and turning a little is -- we're fought going up from 85. they said we might get up from 85, but we're not now. we're going down 10. >> that was a problem. absolutely. but let's look at it this way. maybe when they taper it, it's for a really good reason, it could be bullish. if they taper for the right reasons. >> you don't feel sort of dirty as a money manager accepting 85 billion a month just to get your performance? you're happy about that?
6:38 am
>> whether it's hewlett packard or companies, yeah, do i want that cash flow coming in? absolutely. >> are you buying it? >> oh, you guys. >> that is one of the things we talked about the last time. >> if you were right with the call this time. >> it's done well so far. i think it's blocking and tackling. this is not a top line story right here. it may never be again. >> traders and money managers, they're sellouts. but you take this near term gains and it's like, i'm willing to compromise my own beliefs just so i can get a little performance. >> this is history. >> look, politicians have done the same thing and we want to
6:39 am
keep the people happy. generally it ends in some form of inflation. this is reserve currency. it is the environment we have to live in. >> i don't even know if we engender inflation or what. but people are worried about the roach motel, you can check in but you can't check out. but it's start to go look like that. when they did the 85, it's like, you've got to be kidding me. you can't do that. they say, no, but we can get out. people can't stand the idea that we might get out. >> they say listen, let's just cancel the debt. that's it. >> and it's de facto. >> would you change your mind
6:40 am
about the fed doing something that was absolutely something to sit up and take notice if they went from 85 to 75 billion a month? >> i don't think so. it might be psychologically relevant on a short-term basis. in reality, you're talking about a $265 trillion financial assets market plus or minus 10 trillion. >> where do you get the money? >> so you would see it as buying opportunity. >> yeah. unless the central banks lose control of the interest rate curve. if they lose control, it means you have sellers. where do you put the money? where does the money go? there's very few alternatives. it's possible you see the interest rates run up, but some place where the velocity of the
6:41 am
money can go to about to build. it's not in the cards at the moment. >> david, thank you so much for coming in this morning. >> great. thank you for having me. still to come on squad, you don't want to miss this. andrew is going to interview someone about ice cream. it's just -- i was thinking about that, that it's just going to be -- you have to watch this. >> i'm ready to go. >> it's going to be cute. >> what flavor do you want? >> um -- >> vanilla, chocolate, strawberry? and that gives us scale and insight no one else has. investment management combined with investment servicing. bringing the power of investments to people's lives. invested in the world. bny mellon.
6:42 am
[ male announcer ] here at optionsxpress, our clients really seem to appreciate our powerful, easy-to-use platform. no, thank you. we know you're always looking for the best fill price. and walk limit automatically tries to find it for you. just set your start and end price. and let it do its thing. wow, more fan mail. hey ray, my uncle wanted to say thanks for idea hub. o well tell him i said you're welcome. he loves how he can click on it and get specific actionable trade ideas with their probabilities throughout the day. yea, and these ideas are across the board -- bullish, bearish and neutral. i think you need a bigger desk, pal.
6:43 am
another one? traders love our trading patterns, now with options patterns. what's not to love? they see what others are trading -- like the day's top 10 options trades by volume -- and get ideas! yea i have an idea: how about trading that in for a salad? [ male announcer ] so come trade at the place that's all about options and futures. optionsxpress. open an account today and get a $150 amazon.com gift card when you call 1-888-280-0154 now. optionsxpress by charles schwab.
6:44 am
when you [growl]888-280-0154 now. we used to live with a bear. we'd always have to go everywhere with it. get in the front. we drive. it was so embarrasing that we just wanted to say, well, go away. shoo bear. but we can't really tell bears what to do. moooooommmmmm!!! then one day, it was just gone. mom! [announcer] you are how you sleep. tempur-pedic.
6:45 am
there is a good segment. we make it sound like you golf all the time. you don't golf all the time. >> i do not. >> i recently played a few holes. we went to montclaire golf club again in new jersey. actually, the poor guy, i don't even think he gives lessons any more, mike sterlacher. but the entire time i was hitting him up for stuff about my short game. also a group of investment experts. believe me, these guys, they should stick with investing. but we find one swing we can put in the package where they don't miss the ball completely. but today we're going to learn about discipline from tobias lefkovich, the city chief -- from hard fast rules you don't break in terms of investing and you need to be disciplined and stick to your plan? >> i think that's one of the
6:46 am
biggest problems is discipline, correct. so, for example, if they're traditionally value investors and they see growth stocks running, they start chasing the growth stocks. in golf terms, if your real strength is your long game and not your short game, don't try to start to play short. >> how does someone decide what is an appropriate discipline? >> we do watch age and demographics. people over age 65 tend to reduce their allocation. people that are younger will build an allocation up. >> 20 years ago, i got some caloways that i liked just as well. how does it matter? >> the way technology has advanced over the last ten years, getting fit for golf clubs is essential. >> really? >> an older golfer might use lighter equipment than a younger golfer. here, there are certain tools to think about. one of our tools is the federal reserve lending survey. we try and think of when shoouth out of the way? think about early status.
6:47 am
credit conditions are deteriorating. it meant costs of capital is going up. you're about to face a significant headwind. >> one thing we are talking about is in the investing world, there are all kinds of different conditions. interest rates, currency, the same thing as out on here. >> so when the wind is blowing, we have quite a right to left wind here and in our face a little bit. won't necessarily affect our drive today in terms of where we're aiming or aligning ourselves. but as we're getting into the green, the wind is blowing in our face, we might need to allow for that and take after extra club because the wind will knock the ball down a bit. >> short-term, we had a jobs number that people were worried about after their week's prior jobs number. we had ism slipping and that started to get people worried. again, back to the standard survey, telling me nine months later what is going to happen, don't get potentially confused by a piece of data data that may be revised, anyway.
6:48 am
stick with the discipline. >> when we teed off, we mentioned it was in our face. as you swing, you're fought thinking all of a sudden a guest of wind is going to come up and change the conditions. >> it might. >> it might, but it's unlikely as you're doing a swing that you're going to adjust. same thing in the markets. you're making that adjustment on the series of valuation, earnings, and you don't assume all of a sudden this variable is going to come and change it. you can't think that way because you would never swing your golf club that way. you shouldn't been vesting that way, either. . >> so, yeah, i -- i was driving in this morning thinking about it. you don't want to forget -- easy to forget what is what. so now is all this melting? >> this is ice cream and it is melting. but the key is, we have a segment. hopefully it won't melt by the time we do the segment. coming up, nothing says summer like ice cream. the company behind brands
6:49 am
including breyers and ben & jerry's will be joining us after the break. [ female announcer ] there's one thing dave's always wanted to do when he retires -- keep working, but for himself. so as his financial advisor, i took a look at everything he has. the 401(k). insurance policies. even money he's invested elsewhere. we're building a retirement plan to help him launch a second career. dave's flight school. go dave. when people talk, great things can happen. so start a conversation with an advisor who's fully invested in you. wells fargo advisors. together we'll go far. all business purchases.
6:50 am
so you can capture your receipts, and manage them online with jot, the latest app from ink. so you can spend less time doing paperwork. and more time doing paperwork. ink from chase. so you can. [ penélope ] i found the best cafe in the world.
6:51 am
nespresso. where there is an espresso to match my every mood. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee. where every cappuccino and latte is made at home. and where i can have exactly what i desire.
6:52 am
♪ nespresso. what else? welcome back to "squawk box". unileave can't wait pore summer. the largest maker of ice cream.
6:53 am
breyer's, ben&jerry's. we just mentioned one of the brands, magnum. supposedly the number one ice cream brand in the world. is this true? >> the market leader in the world came to the biggest ice cream market in the world two years ago. magnum is now here in the u.s.. >> i feel like i'm missing something. >> just came here. >> everywhere else it's huge. >> biggest brand of ice cream in the world came to the u.s. >> where does that stand now in the u.s., for example? >> everywhere. >> in terms of market share. >> it is already one of the fastest -- the fastest growing brand. close to 3% market share in the market. we are launching magnum gold, which is the next variant. we talk about as good as gold.
6:54 am
>> what's the number one brand in the united states? >> breyer's? >> what's total ice cream market share? >> around 22% market share. >> we could raise that. >> can-can we have a conversation about creating a new brand. we have a new idea. >> always interested. >> squawk ice cream. >> do you think it should be like a yogurt-based ice cream? >> do you think we could have a licensing deal? >> in a popcicle i think it's perfect. >> squawk rocket. joe, you're funnier than i am. >> i said, tune in, andrew is going to interview the ice cream guy. >> you should buy graeter's in
6:55 am
cincinnati. who is the other 78%? >> very fragmented market. >> really fragmented. >> breyer's, ben and jerry's and magnum is 22%. >> people are moving away from eating ice cream to more of the healthy ice creams. >> is and people start to use more of the food parts. we are launching a new ice cream. it's good because of the fruit and the milk which it has. we are launching that as we speak. >> how much does weather matter to you? i remember the good humor man always talked how he would do a lot better when it was nice outside. >> the weather is something that is very, very hopeful. as you know, march was -- in 22 years this march, the coldest
6:56 am
march in the last 22 years. >> what did that mean for sales? >>. >> the market is down. >> how much? >> the total market is down 5%. >> per capita around the world, have you seen it decline as people switch away from the really good luxury high test ice cream to crappy yogurt substitutes that aren't as good for health reasons. is it down? >> no. >> did. >> if i'm going to have a cold ice cream treat, i don't want yogurt. >> do you do starbucks as well? >> haagen daz. >> magnum is the real one.
6:57 am
>> thank you for coming in. appreciate it. >> when we come back, the story of the consumer continues. up next, the company behind a diverse portfolio from crock pots, coolers to baseball bats. stick around. a talking car. but i'll tell you what impresses me. a talking train. this ge locomotive can tell you exactly where it is, what it's carrying, while using less fuel. delivering whatever the world needs, when it needs it. ♪ after all, what's the point of talking if you don't have something important to say? ♪ bny mellon combines investment management & investment giving us unique insightsy? which help us attract the industry's brightest minds who create powerful strategies for a country's investments which are used to build new schools
6:58 am
to build more bright minds. invested in the world. bny mellon. ♪ fly me to the moon ♪ let me play among the stars ♪ and let me see what spring is like ♪ ♪ on jupiter and mars ♪ in other words [ male announcer ] the classic is back. ♪ i love [ male announcer ] the all-new chevrolet impala. chevrolet. find new roads. ♪ you
6:59 am
7:00 am
the bulls battle back. as usual, investors shake off tapering fears. a closer look what the fed can learn from such a volatile session. procter & gamble replacing bob mcdonald and looking for a boost in business. does the former procter ceo have it what it takes to get the company back on track? find out what wall street thinks of the move? >> it's memorial day weekend. the the first post sandy summer about to kick off along the
7:01 am
"jersey shore". are they ready to handle vacationers? where do rebuilding efforts stand as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. two straight days of losses. dow futures down 36 1/2 points. s&p is weaker as well, down by seven points. in our headlines this morning, first it happened to jc penney. now it is happening at procter & gamble. they are replacing the man who succeeded him. lafley returns immediately replacing mcdonald. we will talk more about this change in just a couple minutes with analyst linda bolton wiser.
7:02 am
and he does not see inflation moving back to the 2% target in the near term. he is, however, upbeat on the u.s. economic outlook. >> i think the u.s. economy is improving. i think we have continued to see reasonably good data on the economy. i'm more optimistic than most of my colleagues probably. i'm expecting 3% growth for the year. >> buretailer sears reporting a loss of $1.29 a share, more than double the estimate by analysts. revenue did exceed forecasts. but the chairman calls the company's recent financial purchase answer unacceptable. >> we have tech news. international trade commission saying most did not violate a patent owned by google
7:03 am
subsidiary, motorola. also, a federal judge says she's leaning towards the government in the apple -- in the case about apple's ebooks. the justice department will be able to show evidence that apple engaged in a conspiracy with publishers to publish ebook. >> tapering talk from the fed this week. creating some anxiety in the markets. but is it real? is it an overreaction? joining us is martin franklin, executive chairman larry cantor, head of research partner. what did you make of bernanke? is there a shift or not? >> i don't think there was a
7:04 am
shift. if you look at the second to last paragraph of the statement, he said while there are risks to rates remaining low for too long a period, there are also risks to raising rates prematurely. instead of rates rising, longer term if they move back, rates would end up going lower, which is the reason why they would be, you know, raising rates to begin with because they felt the economy was overheating or obtained escape velocity. >> if they are all in in equities yesterday, all you need is the lightest -- i don't know how big a pull back it would be. all you need say change in the change. all you need is the second. do we get that this week? >> no. >> that wasn't a second?
7:05 am
>> first of all, i don't think the fed has changed anything. if you look at this bernanke fed, every time there's been a question about which way the fed is going to go, it's been paying to bet on most stimulus. the question is what are they going to do? are they going to keep buying 85 billion or cut it back. i think what the fed is trying to do is create some flexibility for themselves. very concerned about how they're going to get out of this. and by saying, look, we may increase purchases, reduce them a little. and i think when they do reduce them, they're going to make the point that if things get worse they will step on the gas to try to minimize. >> we heard such a mixed review. >> i've heard that. i don't buy it. it's going to take a lot for them to start pulling back. a lot.
7:06 am
>> cody was on yesterday. he basically said business is -- honey well -- i wouldn't say abyss mal. but he did not hide. >> it was not a top line story. >> he was not really -- >> looking at the slow growing global economy. >> but your business is good, isn't it? >> not so bad. for us the way we see the consumer, you know it's in tears. if y tiers. >> cody was in tears yesterday. >> i was going to say, $100,000 incomes and up, very healthy. look at macy's. look at sax. that's healthy in our book. the fed, i'm not an economist,
7:07 am
but if you go back and talk about an effort to create asset, they have been successful of really creating asset inflation. it doesn't do good for people who don't have any assets. >> do you feel like jardin's customers, the economy you're selling into, do you need the fed -- >> no. the whole philosophy behind our business is to try to have seasonal staples. so even though, you know, we have a lot of seasonal business that can be affected by the weather, they're pretty much products that are affected every year. >> do you have some products back here? >> we have skis. >> right now you can't do that. >> yeah. >> but there's a lot of snow, it doesn't matter what the economy is. we sell a lot of skis. >> we see pictures of people i know. >> look at that. special crock pots. >> those are special crock pots. >> do you sell those at a
7:08 am
premium? >> those particular ones are going for a high price, i'm sure. but the reality, something like a crock pot does go to cocooning. >> love those. >> and more cost conscious. >> does it hurt you? >> we have the hookup, the new crock pot hookup. we can't keep them on the shelves. our food saver business has been around. it was the first acquisition i made when we started building jardin. had one of the best years ever had. continues to be very strong. why? people want to save money. they want to buy at costco. they will reseal it so they can use it again. >> you love asset inflation. both of you guys -- i mean, he doesn't -- his business isn't dependent on assets going up.
7:09 am
>> let it go into the things i'm recommending. i can feel good. >> one of the things the fed will watch, how much asset inflation there is. when bernanke talked in june of 2012 about 6 1/2% unemployment rate and they implemented qe3, we're now only 0.7% less. so we have only accomplished 0.7%. so, if we continue to have u3 move down and if asset prices move up dramatically, and let's say the market is up a total of 50% by fall that, will encourage them to pull back. >> let me ask you a tapering question. it's a practical timing issue. we had a guest on yesterday -- only three chances or four chances in the next year for them to actually do it. they would only do it the day before they could actually do a
7:10 am
press conference. which if that's true it limits their ability to do this. you would have one chance in the summer, one chance in the fall and one chance early 2014. does that make sense to you? >> no, not at allment they will do it when they feel the need to do it. the chairman, by the way, can always get an audience. >> they have done big moves. the main part of the process is to get asset prices up. they're not worried about asset prices going too far. they are not in the business of preventing bubbles. >> yeah. but i disagree that is not a huge topic of conversation. >> it may be a topic of conversation. but their view -- right now they're focused on the economy. this is the only tool they've got. really. there's nothing else to do. they have exhausted the interest rate channel. they're going to keep doing this. and you've heard the fed many
7:11 am
times that if it turns out to be a bubble they're there to help clean up the mess afterward. but it's hard to tell. >> what, lowering interest rates? >> i'm just saying -- this is part of the process. they want asset prices up. i think it's going to take a lot of convincing. i think the markets will move before the fed. >> had they announced the 85, people called it shock and awe. we had kevin come in and say this is unprecedented in terms of any fed in history. now we've been in it for this long and we can't imagine life without it? >> and we will survive fine. in the decades in the three decades it did well. >> i feel guilty accepting 85
7:12 am
billion. i feel dirty. it's almost -- it's not -- there's no underpinnings. >> it's been going on for the last -- >> it's a different week. you have to go with how you're feeling on any given day. we have to go. charles, thanks. you guys are going to stay around. try some of that other stuff over there. you can put the worst piece of meat in there six hours and it ends up falling off the -- >> that's right. and we use them on the weekends. it's very easy. very popular. >> brisket. chili. chicken enchilada. we just had ice cream. it's all about food. >> pressure from investors for faster improvements at the world's largest household products maker.
7:13 am
but first check out shares of abercrombie and fitch. the retailer reporting a bigger than expected first quarter loss. sales also missing the mark. you're seeing that stock down 8% in the premarket. we're back after this.
7:14 am
7:15 am
7:16 am
welcome back to "squawk box". look at futures and see how the market is setting itself up. dow looks like it opens 33 1/2. nasdaq off 16 points. dow off 45. >> proctor & gamble announcing the return of lafley replacing his successor mcdonald. linda bolton weiser covers procter & gamble. the entire time you covered this company, which was not for lafley's entire career, you didn't have a buy on the stock. why? >> that's correct. i guess way back when when he first took over 10, 12, 15 years ago, the stock had a period of big outperformance. it was a true turnaround situation because procter &
7:17 am
gamble had no organic sales growth. when that period of performance was over i viewed it as a typical staple stock which tends to not have terrific outperformance. so i focused my picks on other things. more recently, i had a buy rating under mcdonald for only the second time in 12 years. but i dropped my rating when the company reported a disappointing march quarter. >> so, what do you think now about a.j.lafley coming in? are there things he could do that would change your mind? >> certainly it's encouraging. you will hear a lot of positive things from analysts and investors. but you have to think, well, what can he do here? some would argue that p&g needs more aggressive cost cutting. lafley was known as a builder, not a cutter. arguably, i don't mean to diminish his great success as a
7:18 am
leader, but arguably he left with a weak innovation pipeline. perhaps he didn't invest adequately enough toward the end of his tenure. perhaps that's how the company got into some of this. it will be interesting to see. certainly i think it will be received as good news today in the market. >> so this is something you think is good news today. what will be the first test? obviously a quarter from now may be too soon to really tell. >> well, i think the big disappointment really last quarter was that the progress in regaining market share slowed for the company. so it's interesting here that bob mcdonald was being given a chance so to speak by the board. and they were regaining market share. but the pace of that improvement slowed measurably in the march quarter. so people are going to want to see acceleration of improving and regaining market share. >> and that means cutting costs.
7:19 am
lafley may have wanted to do that in the past. but it's not like you can't teach an old dog new tricks. >> that's more of what we need to see. swiffer and febreze became new franchises for the company. i think that's what the company needs. p&g alluded to the fact that we will see that. >> okay. linda thank you for joining us this morning. appreciate your time. >> you're welcome. >> good vibrations returning to the shore. the beaches and board walks get ready for memorial day weekend. . what vibes are central bankers getting from volatile markets. the fed's focus and recent market moves. "squawk box" is back after a quick break. time now for today's of
7:20 am
bla aflac trivia question. oh, he's a fighter alright. since aflac is helping with his expenses while he can't work, he can focus on his recovery. he doesn't have to worry so much about his mortgage, groceries, or even gas bills. kick! kick... feel it! feel it! feel it! nice work! ♪ you got it! you got it! yes! aflac's gonna help take care of his expenses. and us...we're gonna get him back in fighting shape. ♪ [ male announcer ] see what's happening behind the scenes at duerapy.com.
7:21 am
[ male announcer ] see what's happening behind the scenes so you can capture your receipts, ink for all business purchases. and manage them online with jot, the latest app from ink. so you can spend less time doing paperwork. and more time doing paperwork. ink from chase. so you can. [ penélope ] i found the best cafe in the world.
7:22 am
nespresso. where there is an espresso to match my every mood. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee. where every cappuccino and latte is made at home. and where i can have exactly what i desire. ♪ nespresso. what else?
7:23 am
which country elected a tv celebrity chef as its prime minister and ousted him for hosting cooking shows while in office? the answer, thailand. the boardwalks and the beaches at the "jersey shore" are ready to welcome back vacationers. for more on the first post sandy summer, kayla tausche joins us. >> it is not just a topic of conversation, it's an important indicator for the foot traffic that will be here all weekend. rain or shy, businesses will be ready. they spent the last few months ramping up all the renovations to a lot of very hard hit facades here in seaside heights.
7:24 am
working first on the interiors. just in the last month, sprucing up the outside as well. this boardwalk brand-new in the last few weeks. cnbc was here for the six-month mark. there's a central place for people to gather. business overall, a slight dent. of course tourism is the third largest industry. 38 billion dollars in revenue. 4 billion in tax revenue. now, hotels and lodging will definitely be harder hit. i spoke with tom levequey he said if his business was down 30% this summer it would be a good year. but the issue is once you get people into the hotels and into the houses here, the restaurants, the arcades, all the other businesses here along the boardwalk and the "jersey
7:25 am
shore" believe they will get 90 or plus percent of their buns as normal. seaside heights popular and iconic. we'll be live here all day. we have governor christie co-hosting the "today" show. it's very exciting day for the shore. you can tell they have put a lot of work into it, becky. >> kayla, thank you. i didn't realize tourism was the third biggest industry. >> and the bulk of it is coming from the shore, too. that's the biggest draw for tourism in new jersey. >> we will cross our fingers and hope for the best and hope the rain lets up at least sometime soon. thank you very much. >> do you have comments, questions about anything you see on "squawk"? shoot us an e-mail or follow us on twitter. coming up next, the fed of course big focus on the markets
7:26 am
this week. mark zandi of moody's will join us to weigh on what the fed may do next and the possible reaction. dow looking like it will open 48 points lower. "squawk" is coming right back. [ male announcer ] we gave the new e-class some of the most advanced driver systems ever made. stereoscopic vision... distronic plus braking... lane keeping and steering assist... eleven enhanced systems in all. ♪ twelve, counting your adrenaline system. the 2014 e-class. the most intelligent, exhilarating mercedes-benz ever made. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services.
7:27 am
the act of soaring across an ocean in a three-hundred-ton rocket doesn't raise as much as an eyebrow for these veterans of the sky. however, seeing this little beauty over international waters is enough to bring a traveler to tears. we're putting the wonder back into air travel, one innovation at a time. the new american is arriving.
7:28 am
7:29 am
welcome back to "squawk box", everyone. in our headlines this morning, just an hour away from the final economic report of the week. we have economists expecting a 1.3% increase in durable goods for april. that comes after march 5.8% drop. aaa is expecting a 1% drop. despite an improving economy, many consumers are staying close to home. >> another airline will be resuming flights. japan ana will start commercial flights on sunday. ana currently has 17 dream liners in its fleet. >> we have a little bit of breaking news. we have a statement in, just in
7:30 am
from the activist investors on the p&g news that mr. a.j. lafley is rafrg. he said a.j. is a legendary ceo. we expect that he will quickly make progress to accelerate the turnaround of the business. this was the right move by the board. >> you also have a statement you would ike to release. >> i would like to put it on. i would like the music. here we two. but i would like to have it printed out. i'll do it now but make it for later. i'm from cincinnati originally and i use sure deodorant and crest. i don't own any of the stock and i don't think they should have sold pringles but lafley has great hair. >> thank you for that news alert. >> that's worth more than ackman's statements. i at least mentioned a couple of products.
7:31 am
>> he said he's happy about the move. >> do you have a statement? >> no, i don't have a statement. >> are you going to write one out? >> no. i couldn't beat yours. are you kidding? >> that beat ackman. >> he did not know about it. >> that's the the question. if he knew about it, this was something they were dealing with. >> he was not notified about this in advance. however, he did talk about the former ceo, now the former ceo at the conference just a couple weeks ago. it is possible that speech helped to break it down. >> we're going to run his comments and my comments again every half hour. i'm sending this to you, greco. >> and we have invited bill ackman to call into the show. we will await his phone call. >> becky, write a statement. will you play along? will you write a statement? try to make it funny. >> at 7:45 i will release my own statement. >> your statement on lafley
7:32 am
returning. >> stay tuned. # write in on twitter. >> in the meantime -- >> he's a legendary ceo. >> legendary. >> all the taper talk giving the markets a dose of volatility. mark zandi chief economist.
7:33 am
so what of the message from the fed? i don't think he changed the forecast 37 . you know, i think it is steady as she goes. my forecast of when they are going to end qe or taper qe and raise interest rates didn't change. and i don't think the market changed. >> when are you saying it tapers then? what's your timing? >> end of the year. the key is jobs. threshold is 200,000 on a consistent basis. >> say on 12 month moving basis. i think that's the key. at the moment 175 per month. it feels we're moving down to 150 as opposed to 200. i don't see them doing any tapering until the end of the year. >> real quick, layer and other guests made the argument, what you will see, when and if they taper. by the way, we could put our
7:34 am
foot back on the gas. does that make sense to you or not? >> yeah, absolutely. and they did that, right? that's what they did back a few weeks ago. they are now saying they can go in either direction. it's going to be very difficult to land the plane on the tarmac and they will be able to guide expectations. they have to be able to taper qe down and add to qe if they need to. >> neil, take us inside the room. what was ben thinking? what were the other board members thinking? were they happy with the way they reacted to his comments. are we understanding what he's trying to say? >> i think there's probably a sense that people are overreacting to every little thing. the message is pretty table as mark suggested the last few months. we are doing 85 billion a month. we will taper one day when we feel things are on track. we don't want to reverse
7:35 am
ourselves. what's happening within the room, in the committee, a lot of people with different concerns. some are worried about assets, some aren't. i think they're all over the map. they guide us towards where the committee is. >> the core of the committee hasn't moved a bit. they are where they have been a year or two. the folks in the middle have been stable on their perspectives, i think. >> they made it clear they're not ready to take our foot off the act accelerator. and i think it's worth keeping in mind actually this reaction was very, very small. we just had the biggest drop in the nikkei we have seen more in a decade.
7:36 am
7% in one day. our markets didn't budge much. when you figure we're up 7% this year after a double digit gain, i don't think the market is that concerned. >> short, short drops usually buying opportunities. it's down another 50 today. this would be the market discount into the future. we never know when that correction is coming. we never know. the second derivative is the way it would start. he could twitch when he's talking. that's what we've got. you know a lot more than i do. i think they had a method to their -- i think there was enough different about this week that, i don't know. we'll see. maybe not. i can't believe they're not even thinking bit. 85 billion a month. >> as ceo of a consumer company, when you see that news, do you
7:37 am
even read it? do you care about it? does someone in your office say, by the way, do you know what's going on. >> i don't think the average consumer walking into walmart thought what bernanke thought. i think if you're a consumer and you take anything away, what you've seen the last three years that's affected their lives is anybody who has had a mortgage $3, trillion have been refinanced or something like that. >> that's what i mean. >> and it is $600 billion a year. more money in consumer's pockets. that's what they care about. >> that relates back to ben bernanke and what the fed has done. >> yes. but they don't look at the actual event. do i look at them? of course i look at all the macros. i'm looking at a global gain and making decisions whether we will spend in five years's time, based on macro events. >> has your view on anything
7:38 am
changed as a result of this conversation? >> absolutely not. i take what the fed has said, what bernanke said is a good sign of what's going on in the american economy, which is they have come to the conclusion it's time to start weaning america off a government-sponsored system. it's a good thing. >> this is the greatest put we have ever seen. we have talked about the greenspan put, bernanke put. we're going to keep doing this until the labor market improves at a faster rate, which means the economy. it's great. what's going to cause the fed to stop when the economy is growing at a faster track, that's good for stocks. may not be good for bonds. >> mark, you were trying to jump in? >> what the fed is doing matters a lot to consumers. they don't connect all the dots back to the fed. it matters almost on a daily basis. the stock market is vital to high end consumer spending. and refinancing is very key.
7:39 am
so there's a very important link between the two. it translates very quickly. consumers don't look at the fed and say, oh, they're raising rates or not raising rates. they feel it immediately. >> one other question for you. it's a question i asked larry earlier. it's about timing of when you do the taper. do you think it has to be a month when he is prepared already to have a press conference? >> yeah. i think he's got to do that. he has to explain this. >> can he just have an impromptu press conference or one of these quarterly press conferences which means there's only two or three opportunities before. again, you have to wonder if whether you think he's going to stay in the role starting 2014. if he's not, he doesn't have much time to do this. >> well, you know, if i were doing it, i would do it on one of the regularly scheduled meetings. i don't think you need -- you would need to.
7:40 am
you do it on a regularly scheduled meeting -- a meeting where you have a regularly scheduled press conference. i think he would want to lay out a path to how qe would taper off before he leaves. it makes it straightforward. >> neil, we have to run. do you want to weigh in real quick? >> the fact that we're having this discussion shows why they are reluctant. the minute they start to taper people assume tightening is around the corner. that makes them more likely to delay than abruptly. >> i think the fact that we're talking about it means that they wanted us to talk about it. >> i agree. i think this was intentional. >> coming up, memorial day weekend. pretty sure folks will be having a few cocktails. so we will talk about the business of beer with the ceo of miller coors. ♪
7:41 am
[ agent smith ] i've found software that intrigues me. it appears it's an agent of good.
7:42 am
♪ [ agent smith ] ge software connects patients to nurses to the right machines while dramatically reducing waiting time. [ telephone ringing ] now a waiting room is just a room. [ static warbles ]
7:43 am
7:44 am
welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. i shouldn't be laughing. we do have red arrows. s&p off 7 points, nasdaq off 13 points. >> a former nfl quarterback has a game plan for investing. european profit is the ceo of profit investment. he's the portfolio manager of the four star profit fund. good morning, sir. thank you very much for joining us. >> good morning. thanks for having me, becky. >> first up, medtronic. what's happening with this stock that you actually like? >> it is a company benefiting from improving the economy.
7:45 am
it's well-known for pace makers and the like. over the last five years the growth has been somewhat anemic. it has gone into a double digit rate as classification has come around the affordable care act and procedures are being put back in place. we expect a lot more up side here. >> you used to play football. we have been trying to compare haps on the golf course to what happens in investing. are there things you learned that helped you in our world right now? >> absolutely. the biggest takeaway, no matter what your preparation is, on sunday when the lights go off, you have to do your job. there are no excuses. i played cornerback. i covered receivers. i didn't know where the receiver was going. his job was to fake left while going right much the same way in the market.
7:46 am
you look at financial data. you're not sure what the data means. but you make an evaluation based on what you see. you try to get to the core essence of what that actual data means. at the end of the quarter clients want to know how you did. your goal at the end of the game is to make money for your clients. >> do you change the direction that you're running based on the fed this week? >> no. but the conversation has, in fact, changed. we are away from quantitative easing. the fed essentially tapped on the brakes. they let the market now they will be coming out at some point. they're not going to go away all at once. now, i think the real risk here is you had markets closing at a
7:47 am
top and closing down 1% lower on the day, right? that was in october 2007, march of 2000. in both cases you had very big declines the next six months in the market. i don't think that's what happens here. but if you look, you can use history as a guide. i think that's a fact not to be lost. >> eugene, the one question a lot of people have, if the fed does pull out, what does that mean for the economy. in turn, what does that mean for house something you like home depot even though what the fed is doing could have some impact on that, correct? >> i think one of the things we do at profit, is we're also looking at evaluations and certainly we knew at some point the fed would come out of the market. the good news, the u.s. economy has improved. that's why you are having this conversation about the fed coming out of the market. the trick is going to be coming out without slowing the economy dramatically. you did do have an improving
7:48 am
labor market. with home depot, you have a couple things working in your favor. you were leveraged to an improving market. home depot is benefitting from consumers going on, fixing up their houses, and trying to flip out of them. the previous quarter was the first time that the professional service area of home depot, the division of contractors, works well with. which tells you that the housing market is improving. home depot is a perfect example of a stock that has done well since the beginning of the recession but also poised to do better if the improvement continues. >> that's not a broad call across this space. you don't like competitor lows, for instance, right? >> i think part of the advantage the home depot had, lowe else
7:49 am
was a better performer. in sandy and currently the situation in oklahoma, while tragic, there's a lot of rebuilding. home depot was able to get in that space quickly. >> another stock you like is emc. is that because of the cloud? >> that's part of it. emc is a company where you have a billion and a half of free cash flow. it is leverage to large data storage. they have been here before. they had a lot of competition against hewlett-packard back in the mid 2000s when you first saw hard drives together. the concern now is that
7:50 am
virtuization. they did a little bit better in the prerisk quarter. and cisco is probably trying to be a little more leveraged as diversification play. you have about a 7%, 8% pe stock on a forward basis with 1.5% free cash flow. in app area of the market, technology, which while the performing is poor, it is full of explosive growth. it will be a big winner here. >> are you a patriots fan now or redskins? >> i'm here in washington, so i do go to redskins games. one of the interesting things when i first got to washington, month one cared about the patriots. we lost badly to the chicago bears when i was there. now everyone wants to know what went on with the patriots.
7:51 am
of course everyone here is excited about rg3. >> yeah. i want to talk about rg3. i love what he said, real men kroeu. he woke up after his surgery. he is so great, refreshing. is there a 3529 plan? you have five girls that are going to get married some day. can you do that tax deferred? >> that will keep me working for quite a while. it's a great thing. >> you had to go in the investment business just for that? >> the oldest is 24, just finished her masters, but the youngest is 8. >> driven to investment. >> crock pots and final thoughts from jardin chairman martin franklin.
7:52 am
>> we will welcome saira malik on the fed. >> and i have air special statement. >> and andrew's statement on the new ceo at practical tore and gamble. [ male announcer ] this store knows how to handle a saturday crowd. ♪ [ male announcer ] the parking lot helps by letting us know who's coming. the carts keep everyone on the right track.
7:53 am
the power tools introduce themselves. all the bits and bulbs keep themselves stocked. and the doors even handle the checkout so we can work on that thing that's stuck in the thing. [ female announcer ] today, cisco is connecting the internet of everything. so everyone goes home happy.
7:54 am
get in final thoughts from
7:55 am
martin franklin of jardin. we were talking fishing, skiing, bringing beer in the coleman. cradle to grave. >> we try to have natural hedges. when it's too warm we have things to address that market. when it's too cold, we get some help. >> could you put your finger on the payroll tax. >> p.o.s. picked up since early april. yes, you could feel it. you saw it in some of the product lines. it's starting to tick back up again. >> i said earlier it only helps people with assets. >> where are you from?
7:56 am
are you from down south? you have a weird accent. >> i'm english. >> are you chairman and ceo? >> i'm executive chairman. i have a ceo, jim lily. >> do you think we should split them all? has it worked? >> i hate this discussion in america. it's not one with size fits all. that's the real issue. people look at it with one broad brush. but you have a bank. you have been talking about jamie dimon. the reality is if there is ever an example of someone who should be chairman and ceo it should be him. and the same depose for companies. in our company we run the office of the chairman. i have had two partners with me for years. titles for us mean very little.
7:57 am
>> can you get andrew a boot that fits? >> i can help andrew. >> we will help you. >> a lot of people have ski boot problems. >> thank you. larry will stick around. larry, can you do anything for us in terms of skiing? nothing. coming up, volatility backen vogue. how to play the ups and downs. head of global equity research. ♪ [ male announcer ] how do you engineer a true automotive breakthrough? ♪ you give it bold styling, unsurpassed luxury and nearly 1,000 improvements. the redesigned 2013 glk. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers
7:58 am
through mercedes-benz financial services. through mercedes-benz so you can capture your receipts, ink for all business purchases. and manage them online with jot, the latest app from ink. so you can spend less time doing paperwork. and more time doing paperwork. ink from chase. so you can. nespresso. where there is an espresso to match my every mood. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee.
7:59 am
where every cappuccino and latte is made at home. and where i can have exactly what i desire. ♪ nespresso. what else? with the innovating and the transforming and the revolutionizing. it's enough to make you forget that you're flying five hundred miles an hour on a chair that just became a bed. you see, we're doing some changing of our own. ah, we can talk about it later. we're putting the wonder back into air travel, one innovation at a time. the new american is arriving.
8:00 am
high anxiety over fed tapering. will volatility be the theme? >> procter & gamble turns back the clock. a.g.lafley goes through a major restructuring. >> kicking off the long weekend right. we'll talk summer suds with ceo of millercoors. the third hour of "squawk box" starts right now.
8:01 am
♪ welcome back to "squawk box" first in business worldwide. our guest host continuing with us, larry cantor. more in just a minute. first, though, andrew has the headline. procter & gamble are bringing back a.g.lafley. some investors pushed for faster improvements from the household products maker. here are a few stock stats during his time at ceo starting back in july of 2009. p and g up 54%. that under performs the s&p. shares up 79%. the company out performed its peers during that period. here's what he said the last time he was on "squawk box".
8:02 am
>> one of the definitions i use of leadership is the ability to continually transform the mission, the strategy, the organization. whatever needs to be transformed to keep pace with and stay ahead of the unrelenting change that i believe is the reality in a global and incredibly competitive marketplace. >> earlier andrew received a statement from bill ackman on the hiring. we need to bring this to you. he is a legendary ceo. this was the right move by the board. >> strong statement. >> strong statement. but we have made stronger -- and you then went past my statement. you went beyond mine. here's my statement. i'm from cincinnati originally and i use sure deodorant and
8:03 am
crest. i don't own any stock and i i don't think it -- andrew ross sorkin writes. well, i was in pampers when a.g.lafley was first named ceo. i used a braun razor before my barmitzvah. i now use mack 3. i like to blow my nose with puffs plus. it's softer than kleenex. thank you for returning. >> there you go. >> i was in pampers when he returned to the company. >> andrew outdid you. >> he did. depends, i guess. i'm fine. i'm good. i do have to leave. the show started at 6:00. can we read this? >> shares of abercrombie and fitch getting slammed premarket. wider than expected loss of 9 cents per share.
8:04 am
revenues fell short of estimates with comparable store sales dropping 15%. abercrombie cut its forecast for the full year. you can see the stock down 10%. closer to 12%. >> he's a writer. and you usually use your talent for like too big to fail and for your columns and stuff. >> i need to thank a twitterer who started -- >> you stole it. >> no. started with the pampers joke. >> that gave you the idea. >> i never had an original thought i didn't get from someone. that's fine. change the words a little is all you have to do. >> he gives credit. that's even better. let's get a check on the markets this morning. you are seeing red arrows. we have seen two down days for the markets. at this point it looks like the dow opens by 29 points. s&p off close to six points. in asia, well, you started to see a bit of rebound in the
8:05 am
nikkei. it was up earlier in the session. by the end it was up less than 1%. that comes after a day where it nikkei dropped 7%. shanghai market slightly higher. cac is at this point barely moving. the fed and taper talk has been driving the action. jim bullard was on cnbc early this morning. >> the inflation numbers have come in quite low. it was only 1% over the last year. this is well below our target. and i think at least before i would be in favor of tapering i would like to see some reassurance that inflation was
8:06 am
going to move back towards target by a preferred measure. >> joining us now as guest host for the rest of the show is saira malik. larry cantor. sarah, welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> we have been trying to figure out all morning long, did the fed say anything different this week? we certainly feel we interpreted it as being different than a few weeks ago. >> we have been expecting the the fed to taper for a while now. we think they will do it in an intelligent way. they will communicate it well to the market. so the market should be able to absorb the surprise. there's a lot of strong underpinnings if the fed chooses to taper. we have strong employment. housing is very strong. equity in flows have been strong. and stock market correlations have been declining, which means we're moving to a stock pickers
8:07 am
market and it should tried more and more on fundamentals. >> that's good news for you. because you are stock pickers. >> we are. >> i think the market may be able to anticipate this is coming. they have to stop at some point. there could be some dislocation in the short-term, right? >> there could be. we recommend investors use that to find the equities that are trading below full value. time warner owns hbo. they gave us a hit show. >> want to see my picture with the kings later? >> great. >> saira is like, great, that's wonderful. >> sure, joe. >> other things she likes about time warner. >> the other interesting things about time warner is they are also generating a lot of strong
8:08 am
free cash flow. the hobbit movies came out recently. >> that stock is no slacker. it's almost doubled. the well-positioned companies have been riding the tide. now you can see the ones that can perform on their own. you want companies that are hitting on all cylinders. these are the companies you can buy at a discount. time warner should be one of those. >> >> what about some other companies that you see? >> well, we also like the housing market. we think that's a sector that does well. there's a couple of names that might not be on investors's radar screens. crh sells 50% of its sales to the u.s. construction market but it is based in ireland. >> so they don't pay taxes?
8:09 am
i mean, they're based in ire land why? >> they have 40% of their sales to europe. so they are a global manufacturer. they are very leveraged to the u.s.. >> realology. as housing prices go up, more inventory comes on the market. realology is leveraged to that. >> with or without the fed. do you get the sense that it is in great shape and is going to be okay even if the fed backs out? >> absolutely. it's kind of early in the game. just to give you perspective, housing starts peaked 2.3 million units back in 2006
8:10 am
actually. it's a long time ago. we're not even at a million yet coming back. 2.3 was excessive. but most economists think it should be 1.5, 1.7 million. >> there's still a long way. >> moreover, there's a positive dynamic that's the opposite of the negative dynamic we have had the last six or seven years. that is prices have been rising now for more than a year. that's helping activity. when prices were going down, people who could afford to buy a house they didn't want to. they wanted to rent instead. that's changed. even the credit side, the value of the collateral is going up, the house. so banks are will to lend. for the first time we are seeing private mortgage insurance come back into the market. fannie and freddie have been the only game in town. >> will you ever buy -- i know you have specific names you
8:11 am
like. will you ever buy one of these housing indexes? >> we tend to do our bottom up research and build portfolios and find stocks name by name. we kick the tires and look for the names that may be off people's radar screens. >> the reason i'm asking, a lot of viewers might say housing is doing well or should be doing well. i'm going to buy a basket and see how it goes. is it across the board working or are there a couple making accepts right now. >> the obvious ones have gone up a lot. >> another area that can do well is the rail sector. they used to have 12% of their volumes from housing. currently it's 6%. it could help out rail sector. they are shipping more and more
8:12 am
oil. and they have potential pricing power. rail pricing is under truck pricing. union pacific not only is housing and oil play, it's a gateway to mexico. >> i didn't realize. i didn't realize it was still only 6% versus 12%. they have a lot of room to build back up. >> great. well, they will be sticking with us the rest of the show. we will have more to talk to them about. >> do we have -- maybe we can have that. coming up, new york kennedy looking to class things up a little bit. high-end shopping. i like to shop at the duty free shop. >> what was that? >> that was cramer. seinfeld cramer. >> joe, i know you enjoy a good
8:13 am
shower. check these out. these are part of delta's t4 terminal sky club. we will take you behind the scenes here and show you what it's all about in the battle for business customers here in new york. that story is coming up next on "squawk box". so if you'll excuse me, joe, i have to go lather up. ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of long weekends and longer retirements. ♪ ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] every car we build must make adrenaline pump and pulses quicken. ♪ to help you not just to stay alive...
8:14 am
but feel alive. the c-class is no exception. it's a mercedes-benz, through and through. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. [ agent smith ] i've found software that intrigues me. it appears it's an agent of good. ♪ [ agent smith ] ge software connects patients to nurses to the right machines while dramatically reducing waiting time. [ telephone ringing ] now a waiting room is just a room. [ static warbles ]
8:15 am
[ roars ] ♪ [ roars ] ♪ [ roars ] ♪ [ roars ] ♪ [ male announcer ] universal studios summer of survival. ♪
8:16 am
welcome back to "squawk box". futures right now have been better. they have been worse. now down 18. what was lebeau talking about? new jfk terminal 4 officially opening. $1.4 billion investment. the highly coveted long haul business traveler. phil lebeau joins us from jfk airport. that's not a visual i needed. you're lathered up for me, phil? >> you're the same person that ask if i stopped at rest stops during the tesla test drive. >> what happens at rest stops? >> you get coffee. >> let's raise the level of conversation here. we're in the delta sky club.
8:17 am
this is a brand-new spacious facility. when you travel as much as i do you see a lot of frequent flyer lounges that don't raise to the level what you expect when you're a business traveler. that is not the case here. delta invested $1.4 billion into expanding its presence. the sky club is clearly the gem in everything. look at the rest of the terminal. you will see a terminal a lot more different than here in the united states. there are upscale restaurants, shops. if you're going to be at the airport you want to stop. it includes more security allowance. lines here at terminal 4, a large lounge. a rooftop terrace that we wanted to show you but the weather has not been cooperating. it is all about securing and luring more important long haul business travelers. >> having a new generation terminal with lots of seating, lots of passenger placing
8:18 am
amenities, lounges, all the bells and whistles, it's important, especially for delta, to secure and keep the all important business travelers. >> and, remember, the business traveler, that's where the real money is in the airline business. this is delta versus the airline index the last year. delta out performing the rest of the industry. airline up 57%. later this morning on squawk in the street we will be talking with richard anderson of delta air liness and sir richard branson. 10:30 on "squawk on the street". we will get more of a behind the scenes look what they're doing at terminal 4. this is where the battle is now when it comes to international and business travelers, the new york city market. guys, back to you. >> okay. we haven't had them on in a
8:19 am
while. is he somewhere today specifically? that's the time slot that fit in well, phil. >> they're at the virgin atlantic board meeting this morning talking to the new virgin atlantic. delta bought 49%. >> i forgot about that. >> that's why they are here in town. >> a lot more co-chairing going on with that, phil? >> absolutely. >> delta, andrew, they believe they can make this work, where qantas could not. more flights going over to london. that's really the high volume, high revenue route they're going to be trying to exploit as much as possible. >> okay. all right, phil. better planes, i think, personally. just personally. personal preference, view. just sharing. i have another statement coming up. >> a statement of delta. >> at 8:30. we do like delta.
8:20 am
i'm a delta flyer as well. durable goods numbers for april. 8:30 a.m. eastern. and kick off the weekend right with ceo of millercoors. it's go time. [ male announcer] surprise -- you're having triplets. [ babies crying ] surprise -- your house was built on an ancient burial ground. [ ghosts moaning ] surprise -- your car needs a new transmission. [ coyote howls ] how about no more surprises? now you can get all the online trading tools you need without any surprise fees. ♪ it's not rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. it's just common sense. all stations come over to mithis is for real this time. step seven point two one two. verify and lock. command is locked. five seconds.
8:21 am
three, two, one. standing by for capture. the most innovative software on the planet... dragon is captured. is connecting today's leading companies to places beyond it. siemens. answers. ♪ bonjour ♪ je t'adore ♪ c'est aujourd'hui ♪ ♪ et toujours ♪ me amour ♪ how about me? [ male announcer ] here's to a life less routine.
8:22 am
♪ and it's un, deux, trois, quatre ♪ ♪ give me some more of that [ male announcer ] the more connected, athletic, seductive lexus rx. ♪ je t'adore, je t'adore, je t'adore ♪ ♪ ♪ s'il vous plait [ male announcer ] this is the pursuit of perfection.
8:23 am
>> good morning, everyone. a four lane bridge collapsed. this is the skagit river bridge. the bridge collapse was caused by a truck carrying an oversized load that struck an overhead span. the truck made it cross but two other vehicles plunged into the water. three people hospitalized with injuries. good news is, there were no fatalities. they managed to rescue everyone. pretty amazing rescue stories this morning from people saying, yeah, we saw the bridge start to go on, slammed on the brakes and next thing we know we were in the water. >> more from our guest host saira malik. one of the questions i was going to ask you, we talked about different stocks and the economy. we were talking all week about jamie dimon, corporate
8:24 am
governance and the role of investors and pension funds in particular and really trying to push corporate governance in a different direction. with when you look, for example, at the jamie dimon situation, do you have a different view? >> we don't disclose our vote for 29 days after the vote is made. but corporate governance is an issue we take very seriously. we're very focused on the level of corporate governance and making sure it is to the best interest of our shareholders. >> how much is it about the shareholders and shareholder value versus sort of this larger issue around tax payers, the politics of it, unions. i mean, these are a lot of issues that make it very challenging. because you have sort of two constituencies or constituencies that have different issues. they want value but they also may want something else.
8:25 am
>> our focus is generally on trying to creating shareholder value. that mainly -- when we're focusing on corporate governance we want to make sure the companies are doing the right thing and to run their business in the right way possible. >> how about this. for corporate governance, is it a given that if the chairman and ceo roles are split that's better corporate governance? >> we look at each situation individually. i don't think we would have a blanket statement on how the roles should be. >> glass lewis would say -- would write it down. i don't think it's -- i don't think that's a given. i don't think they know. i don't think anyone can say necessarily. >> all of these folks who come out. i assume you subscribe to these services and use them. do you think they have been
8:26 am
helpful or hurtful to the rows? i have heard from investors who say, they have moved the needle. others say it is paint by numbers check the box governance and they are sort of a mockery of themselves. >> it's important to look at all opinions on companies and their corporate governance and to value the opinions of our clients. and in the end we're going to make our decisions based on our own analysis and what we feel will be in the best interest to create shareholder value. >> you just take and put it into your consideration? >> it's part of our decision-making process. >> i mean, i think structure is overrated. it's who the people are. if you have a strong board that's paying their attention and doing their job, it can serve the same purpose. you can have a great structure and things can fall apart. we have seen that many times. and a structure that doesn't look so great but you have the right people in the right seats. >> when with he come back,
8:27 am
durable goods numbers for april are a few minutes away. take a look at u.s. equity futures. they have been a little weaker. right now they have paired a lot of their losses. s&p down by 4 as we head into the last trading session before a three-day weekend. [ penélope ] i found the best cafe in the world. nespresso. where there is an espresso to match my every mood. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee.
8:28 am
where every cappuccino and latte is made at home. and where i can have exactly what i desire. ♪ nespresso. what else?
8:29 am
makes it easy for ann to manage her finances when she's on the go. even when she's not going anywhere. citi tablet apps. easier banking. standard at citibank. helps him deposit his checks. jay also like it when mother nature helps him wash his car. mother nature's cool like that. citibank mobile check deposit. easier banking. standard at citibank.
8:30 am
welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. seconds away from durable goods orders for april. jim is standing by at the cme. jim, you've got the numbers, sir? >> here they come. and 3.3 for the headline number from revised negative 5.9. that's a solid number. ex transportation up 1.3 from revised down 1.7. ex defense, 1.2 from revised .9. these numbers are a little bit more important than normal for two reasons. after what the market believes the chair said on wednesday, all the numbers will be scrutinized a little harder. whether it comes out good or bad, you can make a fundamental argument either way based on your opinions of qe.
8:31 am
we're at a familiar spot here knocking on the door to a correction. we have been at this spot 10 or 11 times. does it seem different than before? to me it does. i'm going to take heat from kernen on this, so let it begin. >> okay. steve and larry are crunching numbers together. >> ex defense was plus 2.1. when i looked down the list, very few negatives. the only negative is computer related. minus 3.7. the key number, nondefense, proxy for business investment, up 1.2%. with this number, because it's so volatile, we look for a sign of an actual trend. anything else you see here that you like? >> i haven't had a chance to
8:32 am
look at the numbers. that is the cap going forward. >> where is shipments? >> 227. 65. so it's down a little bit in shipments. so that would tend to reduce. >> just a quick thing on the federal reserve. i see in jim's comments and i know you have been talking about it all morning. the failure to communicate. the fed's failure to define what is substantial and prudent. when we look at substantial, we have substantial compared to what or improvement compared to when? >> that's good. they should have a little bit of mystery. >> that's a great comment.
8:33 am
it's not when they said a number of participants thought they could do it in june. the next line said views differed about what evidence would be necessary. so it's okay to have a little mystery if you're holding back information. they don't have that information. >> i'm okay with that. if you're looking bradley across the economy and you have a lot of different voices and input, i think the fed has boxed itself so much by tying itself to 6.5% before it could raise interest rates. >> can i push back a little bit? the wage of the cost is volatility. >> six-year low. >> there's the distribution, guys, from the cnbc/fed survey. when they think the fed will
8:34 am
taper. the first thing you see is it's all over the place. there is widespread market uncertainty as to when the fed will taper. you think that's a good thing. >> i actually do. we had uncertain communication. >> that's okay. it's a drop of 100 points. it wasn't like japan. >> steve, we can agree on a couple things, right? good compared to what. one solid durables number is nowhere close. two in a row isn't enough to say things are good. one of the things is when the fed starts to pull back a little bit, it's my opinion that the only way they can do that without having a market calamity is to ramp up the rhetoric saying if you start to get too comfortable we could easily come back in with 100 billion next month. do you agree with that? >> i don't. it was implicit in becky's comment. what you are seeing is a program
8:35 am
from the fed. what's happening is the result of some plan to inject uncertainty. i don't think so. >> i don't think so either. but i'm glad they're doing it for that reason. >> i don't think that's good for the market. i think what they need to do is go back to the drawing board. there's a prenup with the fed funds rate. but they don't know how to break up with it. >> i thought on reflection we thought with 20/20 hind set, being tied to the quarter point moves was not a good thing. and that was complete -- >> i can see -- >> i have to disagree 100%. if there's even a matter of days where the market is relatively fed sponsorship is gone it can turn into a thing -- >> you have to be careful. if you're going to jump on everything the fed says. you want to go ahead and sell
8:36 am
everything. they could say we're back at 85. >> that's what i'm talking b. they have to remind traders of that. >> that seems to me it would create a more orderly exit. the fed has been the hardest thing. >> the promises for the future are a bad idea. if you remember in the mid-2000s, the fed first started with extended period. that contributed to this massive amount of leverage. because before the big risk with carry trades when the fed is easing is they have raised the funds rate. like volcker. >> exactly. is. >> and that keeps you somewhat cautious. if the fed says, hey, we're going to leave this in for years, forget -- that leads to excessive leverage. as becky said, they can change their minds anyway. >> one of the main tools they're using is this forward guidance
8:37 am
too. >> i don't believe it anyway. >> i agree. >> they have not made the forward guidance the way they did. with when was the original? >> september was the infinity qe. it. >> was the same time. >> whatever that was. had they not done that, where would they be today, both markets and economy? >> i think it would be exactly the same. >> no. i think the stock market would not have gone up as much. you felt comfortable that the fed was there. >> the big reason the stock market has gone up is all these big systemic negative risks. china hard landing, all the fiscal fights have gone away.
8:38 am
so they have climbed the wall of worry. fiscal tightening, 2% of gdp, is moderating growth. everybody knows the underlying economies are doing pretty well. >> you don't think the -- >> stand with their foot on the accelerate. but underlying economies are doing better. >> he said fed translucency is better than fed transparency. i agree with that. you want a translucent shower in there. get a little bit of the idea but not all of it. >> jim, you want to pick up on the shower image? whatever it is you want to do, jim. >> two things. the translucency is important because the fed doesn't have 100% clarity. their record is okay but not anything great. two, we were talking about the stock market. in the underlying economy, you have to admit when you see a 1.8
8:39 am
to 2% tenure and you think it will stay there, it's not worth waiting to get 3% so you pile money into the stock market. i believe the economy is improving, too but you can't convince me the fed hasn't compressed rates. >> it's a 3.5% growth economy for the private sector. 2% when you layer in the government. >> exactly. >> guys, we will leave the conversation there. jim, have a wonderful weekend, extended long weekend. thank you for being here. you can stick around. have a good weekend. are you going to fish? >> i fish yesterday. will fish tomorrow. >> lots of fishing. the official start to summer is here. but before the long memorial weekend is here, we will check in with the ceo of millercoors. . the peruvian anchovy harvest suffers. it raises the price of fishmeal, cattle feed and beef.
8:40 am
bny mellon turns insights like these into powerful investment strategies. for a university endowment. it funds a marine biologist... who studies the peruvian anchovy. invested in the world. bny mellon. are you still sleeping? just wanted to check and make sure that we were on schedule. the first technology of its kind... mom and dad, i have great news. is now providing answers families need. siemens. answers.
8:41 am
8:42 am
welcome back to "squawk box", everybody. the futures right now are a little bit below fair value. for a while with when we first got durable goods, they jumped up. s&p off by almost 5. >> memorial day weekend. what time is it? less than 18 minutes away. >> here we go. >> official kickoff of summer. that means parades, barbecues and beer. joining us to talk about the beer business is tom long of
8:43 am
millercoors. yes, either. fine, good. tom, i see nothing. oh, i do see something. >> it is everywhere. >> perfect. >> do you like dream about this day coming every year, tom? >> summertime is beer time. >> every single week of the summer is as big as super bowl week for beer. so we're focused. >> what trends have you seen most recently? we go back and forth between the spirits and the beer. i do in my own life. sometimes i think i'm getting fat. other times i want hard liquor. where are we right now? >> enormous amount of innovation in the beer business. folks, especially young people, are drinking a little bit of everything. and that fragmentation and desires is across the industry. brewers are doing great. premiums lights are flat. the economy part of the business is down a little bit.
8:44 am
so a lot of moving parts in beer. >> you notice the car phenomenon. you make things with fewer carbs in them, right? >> we have low carbs and calories in our light beer segment, yes. >> as far as the flat market, can you stand the beer industry being flat or do you need to shake it up? it's hard to change something this big, right? >> yeah. in the american beer business, 40% of it is light beers. that's a big part of miller coors. refreshment beers aren't going away any time soon. the tom is fast. it is about 9% of our business. it's about 24% of the industry. so we have a huge area to grow. we're very much focused on premiumizing. third shift, blue were moon.
8:45 am
>> i didn't know that was yours. very good commercial. he thinks for two seconds and gets hard with an apple and ends up on the ground. >> was that i launch? we launched it just on the super bowl this year. so good four months. >> about four months. and you would say it's successful so far. >> it's early days, but it is doing great. bringing a lot of drinkers into the beer business. especially women. only 20% of consumption of beer is by women. >> i don't know about -- whether it changes with the imports, but i like being thought of it working. it's a working class drink. did the low end get affected? beers get affected by the payroll tax and other things like that? >> beer is really not a necessity. >> right. you need more.
8:46 am
i need more. exactly. >> it's a real indulgence. when consumers don't have money in their pockets, we get affected. it's very soft in the skphe segment of the beer business. consumers are able to drink more beer and in fact, they are. >> this is an outrage. 40% of the price of beer is taxed. that's an outrage. 40% of every price is tax income. local and federal. >> and excise tax. that's one of the reasons we were on the hill last week. just to raise the awareness. 40% of every pint of beer is taxed. >> different question, business question on mergers and consolidation. a huge amount of consolidation we have seen over the years.
8:47 am
always speculation a this the ultimately sab miller and moulson coors they will try to buy moulson coors. where does that stand? where is the relationship? we have heard over the years that things frayed a little bit. now there's talk of speculation where heineken could fit into all of this? >> well, there's no doubt that consolidation and the beer business worldwide has occurred and create an awful lot of value. if that entire scenario would shift over time, it's really speculative. i think the size of those deals is enormous. tens and tens of billions of dollars of costs associated with those deals. i don't think we will see anything in the near term. in terms of the relationship, actually from my perspective at miller coors, our parent
8:48 am
companies get along very well. they are competitors outside north america. but inside the united states, these two companies have participated well. and i think by all accounts on our five-year anniversary of the miller coors joint venture, it's been successful and created enormous value. i believe they're happy. i hope they are. that's what my job is. >> general spirits have been outperforming the economy, is this a cyclical change in the industry? >> it could be both. it depends entirely on how well we innovate in beer. you have seen an enormous amount with new brands and new styles of beer. as americans find it more something, morva right hits the shelf. i think it will do well in the total alcoholic sector. >> tom, we always talk to ceos. a lot of them get into it
8:49 am
because they really like the product. >> i'm a light beer drinker. i like to have more than one. >> that's what i always say. the first six go down really smooth. >> you support the beer and the brew act? if i have to write my congressman, which should i support? >> mostly those acts are designed to make sure legislators know beer taxes are high and not raise them. the beer act lowered was an effort to lower taxes for everyone across the board. all brewers large and small. >> what's the bottom line, by the way? the tax right on wine, other spirits? >> they're taxed at different levels than beer. >> lower or higher? >> which affects you more. >> tom, is it lower or higher? >> beer tax affects us most. wine is a little higher and spirits a little higher.
8:50 am
>> wow. >> it's based on the amount of alcohol in beer. because it is a beverage of moderation, it's historically for a couple hundred years been taxed a little lower. >> does that going for andrew's wine coolers? >> what about smirnoff ice ands the tax on that? >> those are malt beverages. that's the difference. mike's lemonade. >> out on the deck with your cat. all right. tom, the guys in the booth, they're talking about having a miller before he dives into his above -- >> are we going to crack some open on the set? >> we might. >> save those for after the show. >> why wait? don't worry, tom. thanks. we appreciate it. have a great summer. >> good to be with you. >> you left and it's your tease.
8:51 am
>> i'm trying to get the beer. >> who with's got a bottle opener. >> organization, my gosh! >> wow! >> we had to southwetwist his a. oh, my gosh. do you know where your meat comes from? animals? >> new labeling rules guarantee you will soon. more on that next and if you want a behind the scenes look at "squawk box" this week check out the talking squawk bog at squawk.cnbc.com.
8:52 am
in communities like chicagong. we're coming together with the city and military veterans for the coca cola foundation's troops for fitness. an innovative program that's inspiring hundreds of people. with fun ways to move a little more. stay active and to see how good a little balance can feel. part of our goal to inspire more than 3 million people to rediscover the joy of being active this summer see the difference all of us can make, together. a lot can happen in a second.
8:53 am
with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price -- maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.
8:54 am
welcome back, everybody. the futures have been bouncing around this morning. last we looked they were below fair value. s&p futures down by six, and of
8:55 am
course, this is the last trading session before a three-day weekend. in our headlines, it is official. there are new rules for labeling meat that have gone into effect. when you buy steaks, ribs and other kind of meat, the packages will say where the animal was born, raised and slaughtered and it will come into the wbo scanned arts. when we come back our guest hosts this hour have been larry cantor from barclays and sally from braa krep, we will give them the last word. "squawk box" will be right back. using stereoscopic cameras ♪ and even stop itself if it has to. ♪ the technology may be hard to imagine... but why you would want it is not. the 2014 e-class, see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer
8:56 am
for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. through mercedes-benz so you can capture your receipts, ink for all business purchases. and manage them online with jot, the latest app from ink. so you can spend less time doing paperwork. and more time doing paperwork. ink from chase. so you can. [ laughter ] ♪ [ female announcer ] each one of us is our own boss. ♪ and no matter where you are in life, ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪
8:57 am
nespresso. where there is an espresso to match my every mood. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee. where every cappuccino and latte is made at home. and where i can have exactly what i desire. ♪ nespresso. what else? the act of soaring across an ocean in a three-hundred-ton rocket doesn't raise as much as an eyebrow for these veterans of the sky. however, seeing this little beauty over international waters is enough to bring a traveler to tears. we're putting the wonder back into air travel, one innovation at a time.
8:58 am
the new american is arriving. >> stock of the day abercrombie & fitch saying they don't want to sell to fat people because they're not cool. sarah here, eat your heart out. i don't do well in this -- with jamie lannister, but there we are together. my big moon face next to his. it's not the makeup that make
8:59 am
the man. >> no, he's very good looking. >> i wanted to meet him more than emilia clark, and he was the nice of the guy on a two-hour -- you planted next to him and said you're trapped with me for the next two hours. >> that's what happened, and it wasn't my fault and there was one seat. the freakin' king slayer in the flesh, and he was a great man. >> we have ten seconds each for a last comment. as we head into the trading week and one thought. >> let's look at the emerging markets. they've been underperforming. does anyone here own the samsung galaxy phone? >> that's the market share opportunity for samsung. 20% share in the u.s. versus apple's 75% share. >> my thing is we've all been looking at the fed. i don't think they'll drive it. i think it will be the markets and we've had a huge fiscal
9:00 am
tightening. the fed will look awfully offsides at some point. >> larry, sarah, thank you so much for being with us. have a wonderful three-day weekend. on memorial day don't forget to thank the troops who were serving us in the past and do so now. take care. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ good friday morning. are we almost to the end of this crazy week? welcome to "squawk on the street." kelly evans and simon, and futures still wobbly here after the durable goods did crush expectations of 3-3 for april. japan, they were up and down and then up and closed up 128.

228 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on