tv Street Signs CNBC May 31, 2013 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT
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>> so many people have been saying this time it's for real. maybe this time it is for real. street signs begins right now. have a great weekend. >> when good companies have bad starts, do you have any ideas? herb does. could fed confusion crush the housing market. we're going to debate that one. this is not your father's winnebego. >> you know what? we have broken the streak of negative.
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it is up for the. >> rick out there in chicago. many are wondering why now may be the time to sell and go away. >> i certainly would. and we have had a really strong start to the year. you ran some through some of the stats that we have seen just through the month of may. it has been cyclicals that have been largely leading the way. and even through today. some of those names carry a little more risk. take a look, in fact, at some of the indexes that actually have outperformed the s&p which had a very strong may. the s&p up 3.5% for the month of may.
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these are really outperformed. and if you look at some of the banks, some of those financial names hitting 52 week highs including bank of america today hitting a 52 week high, having a very strong year up 19% year to date. doesn't look like any of the investors are running in any of these names right now. i don't know that i would want to go the other way. >> thank you very much for that. rick, i tell you where that old adage of selling in may and going away has been coming true. in treasuries, right? >> absolutely. as a matter of fact, let's show three charts starting on the first of the month. if we look at the boon it's up 30 basis points. it's up an equal 30 basis points. so we not only need to monitor
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exactly what you pointed out, we need to monitor all parts of the globe because of the carried trade and leverage. maybe the fed is really doing a good job of using us as lab rates. but that's assuming everybody believes the taper is really closer than farther away. >> you know what happens to lab rats when their job is done? what is june going to bring for the market. are re headheaded both of you, welcome to street signs. >> good to be back. >> very simple question. what happens in june? >> i think there has to be a give back.
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the mark has run up so fast, and i don't see signs of economic strength to support all of the economic talk. and the market is going up and down on a day to day basis. the market is run up so much. it keeps i like to point out that consumer sentiment by the conference board peaked in december 2007, the same month that the recession began. and a one-year lag was exactly
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>> the build up i would agree with the seller. >> i certainly hope it is positive. when you talk about the average investor coming in at this stage of the gram it always concerned me because the average investor often only comes in after we have had significant gains and they are like we better get on now before it's too late. i do think in the next couple of years, cyclicals do lead us out, especially areas like the auto industry. if you're sitting with cash, you're better off deploying it
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slowly, but if you're fully invested, i think you will be better off in the next couple of years. >> much has been made of the yield going higher at the moment. so why do you three see the yield going back down? >> i see the yield going back down because in the short term if you have a correction in the equity market, the money has to go somewhere secondly, i see more weakness in the u.s. market than i think is given credit for. third, i think the european debt situation slow ly i can see lowr bond yields in the united states as money comes into treasuries as a safe haven. >> you make a good point about europe and a lot of the headlines are not good at all. i see here in your play book you are actually increasing global exposure. where globally? as far as i can see, asia is
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slowing down, europe is in recession. where globally can you find growth? >> what we're doing is giving multinationals capital and having them shepherded across. that's where we want to go. i think you're absolutely right about europe. europe is definitely slowed down. that's the kind of growth that you're looking for that can actual actually and really grow your cap fall. >> which company specifically would you invest in to get that global growth. >> again, i think given the
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defensive within the united states, i think the ones which have done well in the past before the rally, utilities, high dividend, i think are still the place to go. fixed income is going to continue to do well. and i'm continuing to recommend to investors that they allocate a significant proportion which i think should be doing well over the next two, three, four years as well. i think it is not the bottom in the economy. we are reaching the bottom in terms of various asset prices. >> do you agree with that? >> i think europe still has got a way to go if you are an opportunity investor. it is really hard to put your finger on so many things.
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all of the sudden when you go from capitalism to sometimes poplarism, you will not really get the value you think you would like you do here because our court system is a lot more transparent. >> we're going to debate that and here is a question for you. if you love a company's product should you buy the stock? and an american come back kid,
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. >> at this point it's a matter of when, not if when the fed finally does ease on easing. kalty, you know, you have been talking about the currency war for a long time and i would argue that we are smack dab in the middle of one now. who is winning it. >> i think you're absolutely right. if you look at it from a pure currency sell-off perspective, i would have to say the australians are winning it. you know very well your home country is down as much as 8%. every single currency has fallen enough against the u.s. dollar to say that we're in the middle of the war. but i think it's probably more weakness in store.
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>> i would actually have to say that the australian you're absolutely right. the initial sell off has been caused by u.s. dollar strength. basically threatening currency intervention to weaken the currency this week. we had the ecb policymaker who is the head of the bank of italy saying that negative interest rates is possible.
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>> we had to take a look right now how companies around the world are being impacted by this. first and foremost, if you have companies that are multinational companies who have a lot of business abroad, when they repate reeuate the funds, that will come in as the smaller amounts. so i think as we get to the earnings season and we see the results man vest themselves, i would be cautious of sustainability. >> what do you think happened to the u.s. dollar? when do you think they will start the taper? >> when it comes to the u.s. dollar, i think the federal reserve is probably going to taper in september. the lead is december.
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>> i don't really see taking actions to specifically depreciate currency. when i look at what is going on in the regions, i think it's going on mostly to try to spark domestic growth. i don't hear that when i look around. >> when i look at, for example, the dxy, the broader dollar index, it is back to where it was in 2012 and it's back there for a totally different reason. right now, it's because of growth differentials. i don't think this continues quite as long as you think it's going to continue that the dollar will strengthen if the other countries policies end up increasing their growth rates. i don't see like 1930s type of protectionism and targeting.
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trying to feel where they are relative to the other person. if it's a currency world we will know it. >> this is the good strengthening, isn't it? you want it to be strengthened. >> not because they are running for the cover. >> exactly. >> okay. so stronger dollar for the second half you would say? >> i think it could strengthen but i'm interested to see what could happen with japan. it may be taking the right policies that could increase the growth rate. look, if we went to 120, 130, 140 on the yen, that is the place where it has been in the not too recent past. >> just stick around there. we want to ask what is happening with the housing market.
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i was doing a segment earlier and he was saying he feels that the housing recovery is real and sustainable enough to be able to off set any increase that we're seeing right there. do you agree? the spike has led mortgage rates to go up by 50 basis points this month. >> how high do you think they will go and in what time frame? >> i'm certain that when the ten-year treasury does move up to 3.5%, the mortgage rate will be close to 3.5%.
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the economic numbers have gotten a little better. that's why the rates have spiked up. >> you comment on this as well. i think we have become a bit spoiled with the record low rates. >> i don't know what the sensitivity is to mortgage rates right now. we have had a strong rebound. we're going to probably be topping 4% on the 30 year mortgage rate by the time freddie mac reports next thursday. what we're seeing, mandy, when we look at the 10-year versus the mortgage rates is they have gone up and the spreads are widening. do they act to calm mortgage
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markets? >> wasn't there an article? maybe you can talk to this. while great, it might actually accelerate the timetable for tapering. >> i think the housing market, people are worried it might be a bubble. i think it is a bounce back. i'm not worried about the move sofar. but every 50 basis points does affect borrowers. remember, a lot of people are feeling secure and have that job and feel better about things. so i think confidence about jobs are more important than mortgage rates in the neck year. you're at 18 months. 3.5 on the 10. you must see the fed raising
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rates sometime in the next 12 months? >> i think that the economy is better than people think. we will see. if the data comes in better as i expect it will, i would suspect the middle of 2014 you would see the short rate come up. >> you know i have been here for the last year urging people if you want to buy a house, take advantage of the very low rates. in the next two weeks, i don't know. we might see rates back down some. it is a very tough question. >> are you out there buying
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futures now at 50 basis points or 75? is the fed begins to raise rates in your opinion? >> i think they will by the middle of 2014. i think the treasury bond will react sooner. we have a very artificial purchase level that are large. i think i'm a year earlier. >> real quick here. >> no reason. who knows if it's right. >> if you had a million dollars, if i gave you a million dollars, where would you buy a house or invest in property right now? >> i would say that places that are rebounding are not the most interesting ones.
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places like austin, texas. it has strong job creation. i think much of california is interesting. bounce upward from the bubble. >> i want to very quickly, i was negative on the personal income numbers but i have been reading about them since i got off set. all of the reason that income was unchanged because because farm income fell and farm prices have fallen. if ken is right, i add to that follow income, those are places where housing will do well. >> there is the siller if lining. let's send it over to jackie. what are you watching? >> watching the retailer and seeing some strength today.
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it has been choppy. for the first time in five years, more consumers said that their finances had improved ralter than worsened. separate commerce report showing that consumers cut back on spending but take a look at some of the stocks. gap trading higher. >> thank you for that. just ahead on street signs, starbucks is smoking hot but what has that got to do with smoking hot? you will find out after the break. later on, wealth gone wild. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 that kind of focus... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 that's what i have when i trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550
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>> sales are up 49% in the first quarter from a year ago. the stock is giving back today a bit ahead of its presentation on sunday. ultimately prove more effective. it's still going to be a major player in these therapies. >> which ever of these drugs end up being the one, ends up being the leader. it might be the combined drugs. >> that would certainly keep bristol right in the forefront. believes that bristol will likely maintain the lead but there will be room for all dree drug makers. i talked with deborah ryan. she says this could be a five to
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ten billion dollar drug market for these drugs. they also work. the body immune system. >> i always love hearing about stories where there is progress made in the cancer drug. . >> coming up next on street signs, herb is serving up, and we have got donuts. it was wonderful. hot wheels right? all the nurses wanted to watch him when he was there 118 days.
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street the other day. he has been pushing for shareholder change. this is one of my 2013 predictions. >> you're going to push this thing as hard as you can go. >> green mountain coffee rosters. >> earlier this week the company said it struck a deal with the coffee bean and tea leaf, a big retailer out in the west coast. i do not know why wall street does not care about this.
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9.9% as it distributes shares to its partners from 14%. they were at 26%. they have been slowly letting shares go. >> and as krispy kreme donuts. not as delicious as the. >> i will tell you something. comp store sales were really strong. i don't think i'm on the call back list. you mentioned k eed cronuts wit maybe this is with a k.
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>> i took a test drive and i took a test drive. >> it's such a great car. that big display with realtime traffic, you can't help but like that. that's the car, that's the company and then you have got the stock. with so many companies where the stock overshoots the company. you don't know for how long. >> just because. bottom line on this one is just because you love the product does not mean you should be investing in the stock. >> you have to understand what the risks are. >> okay. solar city. >> i have been talking about it for the past week. this thing -- this price, forward priced earnings, 27. that's huge. >> amazon and netflix. >> these are examples where people love the products.
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who would say amazon is not one of the best retailers out there. but the fact is where -- we saw what happened in netflix. i don't know. but what you do know is these are stocks and sometimes it's not just evaluation. om of these get pushes up so quickly. i always try to point that out. >> the velocity scares you except in these situations. boy does that thing take off. thanks. coming up next, it's back in a big way. we have got a rare interview with winnebego ceo. plus hurricanes, homeowners, and a giant asteroid barrelling towards earth. but first let's get through bill griffi
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griffith. >> we're going to talk to the co- co-founder of a company planning to mine asteroids for precious metals. and you will not believe the list of high profile people who are backing that venture. he will tell us whether he feels lawmakers will ever be able to reform them. and we will hear from a top strategist who says the stalk talk of a bond market sell off is overdone. maria and i will see you at the top of the hour for closing bell. more street signs coming your way in a moment. i have low testosterone. there, i said it.
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barrel in the week ahead. we will continue to watch what has happened as well as the weak economic data today. >> dave, a lot of weakness there. smoke them if you have got them. there is a two mile wide asteroid and it's headed our way. of course we are asking if your home is covered. if it does, are you going to be around to collect? >> that is my number one thing. >> forget your deep impact. here is my favorite made for tv movie called meteorites. >> oh my god. >> awesome. is this going to happen in a couple of hours? >> no unless we're being lied to. the name of this asteroid flying by is 1998 qe 2.
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a quick lack at what's happening with the markets. the dow is now at session lows along with the other two end seesz, and we have lost our gains for the week. the good news is, we're still significantly higher over the course of may, busting that old adage of sell in may and go away, because the three indices are about 3% or more for this month. in the meantime, take a listen to this. >> look at michael coors, the rich people are even richer, and this would drive obama crazy. like, i thought i nailed those people. >> no. >> they've never done better. >> isn't it incredible that the rich are just happier than ever buying teslas? >> well, that, of course, is our very own cramer and the crew this morning on squa"squawk on street". >> cramer nailed pit. there are a couple things going.
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we have richistan, and they are benefiting from soaring asset prices. they're feeling confident. all the surveys show 80% to 90% of them feel very -- >> and they're buying teslas. i think elon musk was on that show that the north american orders have been three times what they expected. >> and that's a $60,000 plus car. that is a new status symbol among the wealthy. they love that car. the other thing that's happening is that the wealthy, they are spending, but what's happening with the companies that cramer mentioned is a lot of foreign buying. go to any store in beverly hills or new york or miami, the people in those coors or coach, they're not speaking english. these are foreigners, that doesn't show up on the earnings streets. this is foreign money, looking for status symbols and souvenirs in the u.s. >> who in particular?
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i hear chinese voices, russian voices, who else? >> it is so expensive to buy anything in brazil, especially luxury products, because of the quotas and tariffs that the brazilians come here to shop, the russian, the taiwanese. >> now, herb has been uncharacteristically quiet here, but you are here. and you might want to come in on this second topic, and that is that the rich might have lots of money, but it seems, as if, robert, they just don't nowhere to put it. >> they are buying some luxuries, but a lot of it is going into collectibles. and some amazing examples just today. they're in france -- do you want to? >> we have to think at some point that they're getting confident, it's almost a level of overconfidence with these assets. or is it the only place, because at these levels, do they think they'll continue to make money and these are the hard assets
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they must own, rather than gold. >> it's not that they think they can make money at them, and you're right, but they think it's the best place to preserve their money. and right now, you are absolutely right. we have what i call an overcapitalized upper class. we have a wealthy that has too much cash. >> a nice problem to have. >> where else are they going to put their money other than stock? >> what about wine. >> they're buying french wine. today a bottle of wine, a single bottle sold for $9,400. a single bottle. >> how can they open it? it's not corked. >> they're probably not going to open it. at that amount of money, it's a few hundred dollars per sip. another thing they're buying are ferraris. we saw a ferrari that sold for $12 million that was supposed to sell around $7 million. there's a group of people in the world, millions of millionaires, with too much money. >> this ain't 2008 anymore.
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>> thank you very much, robert. thanks for your two cents' worth as well. up next, the most tricked out abe you have ever seen. think your own rock star tour bus, without the groupies. and the market dialed down for the week at this stage. we are now in the red over the course of the seven days. [ male announcer ] ah... retirement. sit back, relax, pull out the paper and what? another article that says investors could lose tens of thousands of dollars in hidden fees on their 401(k)s?! seriously? seriously. you don't believe it? search it. "401(k) hidden fees." then go to e-trade and roll over your old 401(k)s to a new e-trade retirement account. we have every type of retirement account. none of them charge annual fees and all of them offer low cost investments. why? because we're not your typical wall street firm that's why. so you keep more of your money. e-trade. less for us. more for you.
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it appears it's an agent of good. ♪ [ agent smith ] ge software connects patients to nurses to the right machines while dramatically reducing waiting time. [ telephone ringing ] now a waiting room is just a room. [ static warbles ] [ telephone ringing ] everybody has different room ideas, goals, appetite for risk. you can't say 'one size fits all'. it doesn't. that's crazy. we're all totally different. ishares core. etf building blocks for your personalized portfolio. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus, which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. we're losing some steam here, folks. over the course of the last
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hour, we've lost about 80 points on the dow. we're down 85 points, as you can clearly see. pfizer at this stage is the biggest dow loser. before you panic, don't panic, because we're still up for seven straight months of gains, and may has been very kind to investors. winnebagos, by the way, are back, and they're back in a big way. we're not talking about your grandpa's clunky camper. what are we talking about, then, phil lebeau? zblandy, winnebago is back not just on the road, but also take a look at what the stock's been doing. over the last year, up more than 100%. and we had a chance to go to the company's forest city, iowa, plant where they're building winnebagos. they have about 20% of the u.s. rv market. 56% of what they sell are the large, very profitable class-a motor homes and the ceo tells us they are really getting busy three guys. >> during the depths of the recession, we weren't even running the factory at times, it
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was so slow, business was that bad. and now we're running the factory every week, in fact, people are working overtime. >> take a look at the backlog and how it's grown, comparing february of 2012 with february of 2013, it's up by more than 1,700 rvs. the average transaction price last year, about $138,000. starting to inch up again. but the real interesting thing is when you look at what people are looking for inside their winnebagos, they are looking for all the creature comforts you would expect at home. >> as far as features in those units, you know, a lot of the units have three televisions in them, hot water, heat, dish washers, deep freezes, washer/dryer combinations, porcelain ceramic tile floors. it just goes on and on. >> and that's what investors in winnebago like to hear when comparing winnebago with the other big rv publicly traded
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stock, and that's thor industries, winnebago has had a heck of a run over the past couple of years. >> we've got five seconds, do you need a special license to drive one of those bad boys? >> depends on which one. the big ones, yes. the smaller ones, no. >> thank you so much, phil. have a great day. "closing bell" is next. have a good weekend. hi, everybody. we enter the final stretch for the month. welcome to the "closing bell," i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange. this market staging a late-day sell-off in the final hour. bill's just telling me, we just heard more than a billion dollars for sale as we approach this final hour. >> no matter how we finish this day, the sell in may and go away just didn't happen this year. the dow finished the month positive. we're still waiting to see just how positive, because we are tanking as we speak. the dow was up 67 points at the high of the
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