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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  May 31, 2013 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT

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to get you there. call us. we can show you how at&t solutions can help you do what you do... even better. ♪ ♪ live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. our trades this evening. to our top story of the day. the dow and the s&p 500 plunging in the final minutes of trading. the dow falling more than 200 points and the s&p off 24 points. their worst day since mid-april.
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find out if this close to the month is signalling something bigger that could be approaching. guy, what do you say? >> well i mean i think last week, may 23rd we talked about that reversal was very power. . though we rallied this week it was never able to take out those highs. so i still think the high we made last week may 23rd it bolds very ominously, i think, for the market going forward. i still believe that 1620ish, 25, is your sort of line in the sand on the down side. but clearly today wasn't a great day. >> speaking of omens -- >> yeah so the only people more superstitious than sailors are traders. and the hinssen berg omen is going to be all they talk about. on april 15th and today, you had the same thing. it has to do with how many new york stock exchange stocks are making new highs and new lows at the same time. very strange occurrence when that number jumps up. mcclelland oscillator is down and the market is higher than it
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was 50 days ago. this doesn't really happen often and it doesn't always mean something. but the last time it occurred was october 2007. a lot of chatter about it. and i think everyone should be aware of it. it's cocktail conversation, maybe, or maybe it leads to something more. >> sounds like the sky is falling when you talk about that at this point, grasso. >> it's a bunch of hot air. >> save this clip just in case it's not, though. keep that on file. >> for me i lightened up because i'm worried like the rest of the world is that we're topee here. 1629 in the cash. that's my level. we closed right there. perplexed. don't know what to do. i'm lightened up. i'm waiting for the dip. >> i'd say to both of these guys, you said may 22nd. since may 22nd. we've had three reversals that have caused basically, you a drawdown of about 2%. we haven't seen that sort of activity in months. it seems like in months. it's all coming at a time when we've had commodities, bonds,
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emerging market currencies everything has been moving very very quickly except the u.s. equities equities. so all of a sudden now, we're seeing a bit of volatile till here. the vix started to pick its head up. closed over 16 for the first time in about a month. to me there are some things going on right now. >> the context though is that it is still an up month for the month of may. it continues the s&p's winning streak to seven months here. if you look at the sectors that did gain in the month, positive signs in terms of rotation to cyclical stocks. tell comes and utilities, worst month since february '09? isn't that strooent here? >> you're right. we will talk about financials later in the show but i think dan makes an excellent point. the price action over the last week to ten days has been very -- the most interesting price action for bears in quite some time. again, i'm not saying we're going to break down here but you have to respect --
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>> we also did have a rebalance today. we did have month end. so, a lot of people are trimming those positions that have been so strong, so i wouldn't make -- >> too early to tell. >> exactly. >> i think to sum up we don't know yet if the money pouring out of the defensives is going to find a home in other sectors or if it is going to hug the sidelines in this summer swoon. you can take a guess if you want. but the tech any cams are inconclusive and it's just too hard to say which way it's going to go. >> let's bring in our next guest. he says don't worry about this. he is jeremy seigle he says the dow can still hit 17,000 by the end of the year. all right, professor, pleasure to speak with you. put this selloff in today's session in the final moments of trading, in context for us. should we be concerned? >> i think we have to realize that no one talked about what happened to yeemds was really amazing. almost 60 basis point jump in the ten-year. we haven't seen that in well
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over a year. i think the market honestly is pricing in a tapering of q.e. september, i mean this is a huge change in mind set for the market to only be down a couple percent, to me is actually a sign of internal strength rather than internal weakness. because right now, it's -- the market is going to go both ways. if there's weak data they'll say, oh good the fed will extend if there's strong data we can say, hey, we'll be better in second and third quarter. so when it gets to that leverage point i like the market here. >> and doctor you're right, we did not mention yields in the first few minutes of this show we talked about them yesterday. does what's happening in japan give you any positive in terms of what your view is for the u.s. going forward? because, to me the volatility we're seeing there and the swings of the magnitudes we're seeing there is a little bit scary, no? >> yeah well first of all, they were in an unbelievable upsurge and they attracted a lot
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of trend followers. those people that jump on momentum and they put their tights, their shorts very tight on the trend. you know, they roeld itde it up and they all jumped out. when you have -- you guys know. you're great technicians. when you have a strong trending market, you often have very strong reversals in the opposite direction. that's what i see in japan. and in a little bit, even in the u.s., we have trend followers coming in and when it breaks the trend, it actually moves off. actually, if you look at the chart from my standpoint it's regaining the trend that it established from january all the way through april until jumping ahead of may and we're sinking back right now to that trend. it has not broken the primary trend -- >> jeremy it's josh brown, i want to ask you about two things, but they're really related to each other. you can probably answer them together. so, the bears would say, this whole nonsense with earnings
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yield, which is make believe, and the fed model, it's not applicable, given the fact we have activist central banks in a state we've never seen them. and number two, most of the earnings growth in the last six or seven quarters has been attributable to share buy-backs, just merely lyly shrinking the float. how do you address that bear case on valuation right now? >> well first, when we take a look at bonds and, so bonds are 215 on the ten-year i don't care if they go up to three, three and a hatch. stock earnings yields are still very, very attractive compared to any measure of bond yields we can go up to. and by the way, i don't -- i don't think we should quibble with eps, earnings per share, going up because of buy-backs. basically, we have the earnings there, it's a tax efficient way to get the funds back to the investors. i -- i have no trouble with earnings being pumped up by buy-backs.
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many people say that you really should add buy-backs to dividends to get the total cash yield that investors are getting, so neither of those two fronts do i think a bearish case is made. >> i have to ask you, because when we have you on you are undoubtedly a bull and you've been a bull every single time you've appeared on cnbc as far as i can tell. is there anything on the radar that could make you think twice, whether it be economic data corporate earnings anything that could change your bullish outlook? >> well you know and that is -- if yields go up too fast -- >> which would mean what? from what to what? >> well you know, so we're at 215 on the ten-year. i would get worried if it raced all the way up to three on the ten-year. >> within what time period? >> oh, in a period two or three months. i would worry if i saw inflation going up with those yields because then the fed is just -- we're going to have to tighten,
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there's going to be no question about it. and that would worry me now. that's one reason i look at oil and come mod times, i say, hey, they're down, okay that takes the pressure off the fed. if yields go up too fast that basically worries me. at this point, i think it's a pricing in of the tapering of the e.q.q.e. >> got it. professor, thank you. all right, so if yields race up too high. that makes sense. is that going to happen? >> that's the '94 fear, where you had this sudden backup in rates. nobody really understood what was going on. didn't effect the stock market for a little while. once it did, it manifested itself. it went away just as quickly. i don't know that we're in the same condition economically that we were then though. >> the other big story tesla. america's new favorite cult stock. it soared to new highs this month. locked in a 92% gain setting its return to about 200%.
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this week the stock started skating, as the founder made the rounds taking about a nationwide super charging network, a possible partnership with google. so seemingly everyone test drived the car today right here on cnbc. we ask, is this stock everyone wants to short ready to be shorted? >> you games put the top in you put kramer in the car -- >> i didn't test drive the car, by the way, just -- on the record. >> this is not a stoptop. >> i love the story. >> this is not a top. just because musk has been out in front of the story, the way he has this is a guy that just pushed $100 million of his own money into this stock at $91. so, here is the stock in the high 90s. he owns 23% of the shares outstanding. >> you still have a third of it short. just wake me up before he's on the cover of "time" magazine. >> he's changing the way society looks at electric vehicles. they weren't cool before. you had the priuses running around. no one wanted to be driving one. now people want to be in these
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vehicles. he's changing the whole perception. >> quickly, a couple of things. the reason why mel didn't drive it, she didn't have a valid license. >> that's not true! not true. >> i don't think this is a short yet. might go lower, but i think you're flipping a coin right now you at best. >> i do have a valid license. fyi. >> show us. >> coming up next the movers and shakers of the week and the giant asteroid that's whizzing past earth. a look at how insheers view it. but first, guy and josh brown square off over the resiliency of the big banks. back right after this. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] the parking lot helps by letting us know who's coming. the carts keep everyone on the right track. the power tools introduce themselves. all the bi ts and bulbs keep themselves stocked. and the doors even handle the checkout so we can work on that thing that's stuck in the thing. [ female announcer ] today, cisco is connecting the internet of everything. so everyone goes home happy. [ male
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let's hit our top three trades. the most notable moves of the day. first off onlymnivision technology after better than expected fiscal first quarter guidance. guy? >> valuation is still reasonable but you can't buy this stock here up that much percentage points when it traded about 12 or 13 times normal value. i'd wait for a pull-back. >> check out morgan stanley, hitting a 52-week high after one wall street analyst said the bank has earnings momentum. josh what do you say? >> so this analyst is chasing
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the stock. his prior target was 20, it's already 26 1/2. he's coming in saying 30. i'm not impressed. >> he's late. is that what you're saying? >> maybe he's right, but short-term, it looks like the stock has probably peaked out, if the market has, i doubt it's going to make any progress as a capital markets play with a weak summer market so i wouldn't go chasing. >> all right, last up deck's board of directors urging shareholders to buy for the buyout offer led by founder and ceo michael dell. dan? >> there's options, carl icahn, clearly, you get the cash the stub and you get to participate in the future upside or give the company back to michael dell at what a lot of shareholders think think is just way too cheap. there's no good scenario here other than the carl icahn scenario. i don't see any upside reason to own the stock. >> all right, financials ripping over the past year. it's a part of the market that's been working. other areas getting hit by sector rotation. the resiliency of the big banks
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kicks off our street fight. guy is the bull josh is the bear. 90 seconds to make both cases. guy, kick it off. >> the broader market trumps everything, but let's just assume we're besign for awhile. valuation is very come peopling for the banks. that plus the fact maybe we're getting back to normalized earnings for these guys. pete's been seeing huge call buying now in all the financials for awhile now, so the options seem to be behind it as well. yield, the yield curve still works for the banks and plus think about this. they have shrugged off every piece of negative news that's come through the pike over the last 12 to 18 months. one has to think the resilience is still there. >> yoshjosh? >> i agree with almost everything guy said. the problem is this sector is not going to survive a return of volatility at these levels. they're going to come in you're going to have a much better crack at them. i think longer term guy will be right. but i got to tell you, this group is up 42% over the last year 20% year to date. they will not be spared when they raid the brothel even the
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piano player gets taken out. >> that's quite a metaphor. i don't really know where that goes, when they raid the brothel, even the piano player -- >> too many -- >> where -- i don't hang out at sailor bars. where do you stand, grasso? >> obviously anything that's performed well is going to be trimmed well. and that goes into effect with the financials. >> trend is a gentle way to put it. i like that. no, look. these are not expensive stocks. guy is right. but i do think you'll get a much better entry point if this year shapes up like the prior three. >> time not for pops and drops, the biggest mover office thes of the brothers, dan. >> you have this rotation out of the stuff that got us here. this thing has come back into the 35 range. it probably sees those april lowells of 30 in the next couple of months. >> pop here for lionsgate up 3%. guy? >> michael is a stud.
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he's so good he was watching the show yesterday, called mel and pointed out she was talking about trailing not forward multiple here. love the stock for a long time. it's very hard to buy it at 30 bucks. you knoll what? probably the right thing to do. >> pop here for first solar. josh? >> yeah look this is a stock that's been upgraded a bunch of times along with the whole sector. sun power looks pretty good as well. these are going to be volatile. you should not be playing with these, however, they are really getting interesting here a lot more contracts, a lot more deal flow. so, i would be more constructive on this if it weren't up as much as it is. >> a pop for the week for newmont. grasso? >> play metals and if you want them, you have to play the miners, because the miners outperform on the way up. i'd be a buyer. >> and a pop here for hands free whoppers. >> huh? >> you have a hand it to burger king for this invasion. introducing a device that allows customers to chow down without
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lifting a finger. they handed out the devices to 50 members of its loyalty program whole can now ride a bike or go for a run while eating their whopper. >> that's like a nobel prize. just stop the competition. >> saw that at a sailor bar once. >> did you? hands free at the sayilor bar? >> and what were you doing -- >> i was looking for you. >> coming up next on "fast," where to make your moves monday but first, did you feel it? we just escaped armageddon. jane wells explains. >> everyone thought it was going be the end of the world at the sailor bars. but good news asteroid did not hit earth. it was a nail biter. bad news one of these days. so are you in good hands? we talk about that after the break. i have low testosterone. there, i said it. see, i knew testosterone could affect sex drive but not energy or even my mood. that's when i talked with my doctor. he gave me some blood
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time now for our top three trades for monday. here's what you should be watching next week. first up retail sales numbers out on thursday. retail etf up 20% so far this year. josh, what are you looking for?
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>> i guess just don't get too carried away with this number. right behind it is nfp. that's going to be the big one. >> that's friday. next up, speaking of nfp, jobs report coming out next friday. this closely watched data could send markets into a tail spin. any surprise could lead to another frenzy and federal reserve speculation. grasso? >> we've all thought that rotation coming back into yield is going to happen. but if we get a print of over 200,000 jobs that is going to be extended forget chase for yield anymore. so, keep your eye on that number. >> last up auto sales data out on monday with names like ford and general motors trading near two-year highs. can the stocks continue to accelerate, guy? >> if you look at the monthly numbers, ford's quarter, if you look at the piperaper that dan and pete see in options, it suggests the numbers are going to be excellent. >> what have you been seeing in terms of paper, dan? >> really technical buying with different levels of you know ford, 15 you've been talking about it. people really see, you know as
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the economy -- these are the ultra cyclical names, right? and some people view them as a much cheaper way to play the housing department -- housing recovery, so we've been seeing you know call buying out to january, upside out of the money. >> okay. moving on here. does your insurance cover object objects falling from outer space? >> huh? >> today, a giant asteroid nearly two miles long is making its closest path to earth in 200 years. jane wells has a look at how you'd be covers if a space rock did, in fact, fall on your house. jane? >> melissa, fortunately, we dodged another bullet. a bullet that is 1.7 miles long called asteroid 1998-qe 2. this is the speed from space.com. >> this is the minute right now, we are there right now. as qe-2 is at its very closest to earth. >> that is so exciting. that was 24 minutes ago. the rock came as close as 3.6 million mimeles.
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is this or any space object if it hits your house, you are covered by your regular homeowners poll sill if it's a direct hit. it's a little bit more complicated if you get blow back. what about your car? listen. >> if you have the optional comprehensive insurance, then you are going to be covered if the asteroid hits your car. so, you are covered there. and if you get into an accident swerving to avoid hitting the asteroid or something like that and you cause an accident you'll be covered under your liability insurance. >> but the real long-term solution is not an insurance policy. it's to take the fight to the asteroid. >> united states government just asked us to save the world. >> i'm with you. >> of course i'm in. >> can't let you go up there alone. >> i'm in. >> beam me up scotty. >> you know who wins with asteroids? hollywood. "armageddon" grossed $200 million, according to box office
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mojo. much more than its 1998 rival from paramount, "deep impact." as for the real asteroid one person on twitter said he's less worried about it more worried about 2013 qet by the fed, hurtling towards impact with the economy. >> that was liv tyler's greatest role by the way. >> to date. >> i hearted her. >> better than "lord of the rings?" >> oh, yeah. who was that -- was she for real swerve around the as troid? did you put her up to that? was that scripted? >> very serious. >> is that a sailor bar thing? >> sailors and as troimds don't mix. >> all right. good to see you, thank you for answering those questions that were burning in our souls tonight. all right, time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. dan? >> listen. this may be a tough setup for monday morning. we're doing a friday show. you ma i have a gap in crap. this thing may go down a lot. i added to my vix long call position here. this is the way to be -- >> gap in crap? learning so many things tonight.
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grasso? >> not sure how to follow that one up. southern, i'm hoping that the chase of yield comes back. southern. >> josh brown? >> just for short-term traders only. if they open this xlu at a big gap down i'd be all over it for a quick reversal. not something i want to stick with long-term. >> guy? >> bottom would have been 65 today, happy birthday to the greatest. and tlt. i think yields are going back down. >> thank you for watching. see you back here monday at 5:00 for more "fast money." "options action" begins right after the break. have a great weekend. een before. this ge jet engine can understand 5,000 data samples per second. which is good for business. because planes use less fuel, spend less time on the ground and more time in the air. suddenly, faraway places don't seem so...far away. ♪ ♪
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this is "options action." tonight, call them the comeback kids. these stocks are stuck in a rut, but could a breakout be in the cards? mike khouw gives you a strategy that turns one dud into a stud. plus, status update. is it finally time to add facebook to your buy list? dan nathan's got the answer in a trade that puts time on your side. and, dollar in your pocket. scott nations has got a way to make dollar general a bargain buy ahead of earnings. the action begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times
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