>> i'll see you in the barbecue shelter. >> and i hear he's having his first baby as well. >> isn't that sweet? >> he's like 100 years old. >> he's selling the o pay for college. >> it will be that expensive later on. >> thanks for watching "street signs" even through all these unproductive minutes. >> "closing bell" is next. hi, everybody. welcome to a special edition of the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo, coming to you live from the pier hotel in new york city, at the deutsche bank conference on financial services. even as we watch the market drop on wall street today, here in midtown, manhattan, heavy hitters from across the world have come for deutscheback's financial services investor conference. we'll talk to a number of them coming up, bill. >> looking forward to that very much, maria. i'm bill griffeth here at the new york stock exchange. while all good things apparently

must come to an end, the dow's tuesday streak looks like it will end at 20 that we hit last week. the dow was down 153 points on the low of the day, it's been trying to claw back, but with an hour to go, we're down 109 right now. it's not looking good. we'll see. >> no, it's not. it feels like there's been a bit of a change in sentiment, but in a moment, i'll be speaking with the ceo of deutsche bank, and we'll talk about what he's seeing in the market right now. an all-star lineup of guests. deutsche bank's ceo, bob benmoshe, rob sands, bill gross. also on top later, also renowned analyst meredith whitney will join us as well. tomorrow we'll talk with the ceo of ubs. big show today. keep it here for all of that coming up. >> meantime, the volatility continues. comments made by the greatest hawk on the fed, the kansas city

fed president,sthester george. a lot of her comments, which were just released about an hour ago, have taken a toll on this market. we'll be going through those comments. the nasdaq at this hour is down 23 points, also off the lows, now at 33.41, and the s&p 500 index, after ten consecutive up tuesdays, down right now at 1629. so the streak of 20 for the dow seems to be in serious jeopardy. >> it's going to take quite a rally. let me put up a two-day chart of the s&p. we were modestly to the downside, a few points on the s&p, until about 120 eastern time. and then it just kind of fell out of bed. a couple of comments from the trading community here. number one, 1634 is when we kind of fell out of bed. that was an important technical level from yesterday.

it was the volume weighted average price for yesterday and it's possible a couple decided to sell when we dropped below that. that hit some stops for the traf traders. take a look at the nikkei futures. everybody's watching that these days. there were also some headlines, people messaged me that the bank of japan's reit purchase program may be reaching its limit. maybe that had some influence as well on the markets on top of that. then at 215, this was a while ago, 215,esther george came out with a speech. she was sick today, so she released the comments from her. here's the key statement. "i support slowing the pace of asset purchases as an appropriate, next step for monetary policy. this was no surprise. it was in line with her previous speeches, so she reiterated her feelings about this. but you can feel the effects on some parts of the market. even today, bill and maria, the important thing is, interest rate-sensitive stocks continue to get hit, even earlier in the day when the markets were up, there was no move off of the

bottom for those particular sectors. >> i will give credit where credit is due. the joke going around at the news desk, according to our robert hum was, it was a down day on wall street, by george. >> very good. >> pisani liked it, robert. let's get to today's "closing bell" exchange. we have mike santoli from yahoo! finance, cnbc.com's jeff cox, who must be licking his chops today, and our own rick santelli as well. good to see you all, guys. michael santoli, what do you think of this sell-off and the volatility we've seen the last week or so, when the momentum of this market seemed to be tempered a bit here. what do you think? >> we're definitely in between prevailing stories, right? so the whole like bond-like stock, dividend chase clearly has been thwarted and yet we don't yet have the kind of confidence where you would say, immediately, seamlessly, let's rush right back into some kind of cyclicals. we don't yet have that clear outlook on the economic data

path or wosof course what the f is going to do. also, i've been talking about this for a while. the kinds of jumpiness you're seeing in a lot of these global asset markets unnerves a lot of things and disrupts portfolios. i'm not saying i know anything is going on, but when you see the kind of moves in oversee stock and bond market you've seen, i do think it sort of knocks some people from a very comfortable, complacent position, and that's really all i'm taking out of it. >> vadim, do you sense a change in sentiment on the part of investors? the last couple of weeks have been quite volatile and it feels like people are finally starting to say, look, rates are ultimately going higher and it's time to take some money off the table. do you sense a change in sentiment or no? >> i think it's quite mild. i want to add to what mike said, which relates to the notion of sentiment. over the last 12 months, 90% of the market gains, 90%, have been tiled to valuation multiple

expansion while earnings expectations have actually come down. and this perception of stability is what gave this market a rise. now that the fed is thinking about tapering the qe policy, it's not surprise that the perception of risk is going higher. and one other quick point, you are starting to see some speculative pricing of assets. for example, farmland has almost doubled off of 2007 level. we're seeing huge growth in residential and commercial real estate, so the fed may be getting a bit concerned with those signals. >> jeff cox, should we be surprised that the market's responsive? a lot of this is attributable to her comments. would we be surprised she's calling for tapering sooner than later? >> of course not. but i think you have to dig down deeper a little bit and see what the impetus is behind what the fed is going to be doing. one of the means we've been

following, the bad news is good news kind of thing. they think that the fed is going to step in and provide for liquidity. bill gross is out this month with his investor naews letter,a powerful takedown of ben bernanke and gross asked the question, look, mr. chairman, we've been following you down this root and we're looking for the growth to come and it hasn't come. five years later, you still haven't see an economy that's grown in excess of 2.5% over a 12-month period. why should we continue to trust you? you're part of the problem, not part of the solution. and i think that's starting to get through the market right now. like, where's the economic growth going to come from. >> yeah, but at the end of the day, the ultimate question keeps coming back, what are the alternatives to equities today? and so people continue to look for a sell-off. and every time we get one, it's a buy on the dip mentality, rick santelli. >> maria, i think that's true,

but when ten-year treasury yields go up 0.5%, it makes that equation a little less in favor of equities. i don't think that's wrong. >> rick santelli, can you jump in? >> i'll tell you what, here's what i think's going on. over the last week, we've seen the overnight repo in tens go negative. this morning, coming in, it was at minus 3%. we don't want to get into the weeds here, but what that basically means is that using treasuries as collateral or deliveries, it's very difficult to find them. you know, everybody is shorting treasuries and finding that very rare collateral is getting tougher and tougher, there's more fail. so the long and short of it is, when you see this in the repo market, many times you see traders say, heck with it, i'm going to go for easier short, and they turn around and sell some futures. we have seen a hint of that today. but we want to keep a very close eye on the repo market and the

other thing we want to keep a close eye on, obviously, is the huge amounts of bets that rempo markets are being made and it seems as though the investor class want to be short. we'll have to wait and see what happens. but i'll tell you what, if you're looking to replace the short in ten-years, good luck! >> yeah, i'm absolutely hearing the exact same thing that rick is hearing, trying to find those ten-years out there, the supply is just not there. there seems to be some kind of glut liquidity in the markets, where things are not functioning the way they're spoeupposed to functioning. and i think he hit the nail on the head that the nonforeign payrolls are going to be very critical. the fed will have to walk a very tight balance here in terms of why, if they do, in fact, start tapering in september, why they're doing it. hearing rumblings out there that some members on the fed, not just concerned about inflation and growth, but also just concerned about the fact that investors are loading up too much on risk now.

>> vadim, how much weight are you giving to those jobs reports as well? >> i think it's very going to be important, but on the other hand, i don't think a single number is going to make the difference. i still don't see a lot of inflation outside of asset inflation, which the fed will be concerned about at some point. but the real wage inflation and goods inflation, i still think it's much further down the line. so i think the numbers are going to be important, but we'll need to string together a number of quarters before the fed starts to act aggressively. >> all right. gentleman, i don't think i'm telling a tale out of school before we let you go, but one of the floor traders on the new york stock exchange just was telling me, when they heard they were going to release president esther george's comments online, he was blocked by his trading, his computer, he thought he was trying to access a porn site. >> well, probably seems like porn to some of the guys down

there to hear that kind of talk. >> we'll leave it at that. thank you all for joining us. >> thanks, everybody. >> see you later. heading towards the close, maria. 50 minutes to go. and you know what? market's come back. we were down 153 on the low, now down 87. stand by. >> we'll continue to follow this market, in this final hour. and after the break, don't miss my exclusive interview with the co-ceo deutsche bank. we are at the deutsche bank global financial services investor conference. find out how he's and a hanavig realities. and later, bob benmoshe with me. he may not be happy about that. we'll talk about that, coming up. and also, nfl games are coming to your smartphone this season. if you use verizon, that is. we'll break down the new deal and what it means for your game watching and your portfolio. that and much more coming up on the most important hour of the trading day.

welcome back. if you're just joining us, a down day, a rare tuesday with minus signs on the major

averages here. the dow industrials down 102 points. was down 153 at the low. we've been trying to come back. it's not been looking good for the street. year-to-date, we know the big gains the dow has seen. tuesdays, each tuesday when you put them together, contributed to 68% of those gains and the dow streak looks like it will be stopped at 20. that will be a record for the number of consecutive tuesdays. the previous record was 15 set back in 1927. for the s&p, it did ten in a row tuesdays this year, but the longest streak was going back to 1972 at 15. for the nasdaq, it had ten in a row. that is a new record. what has contributed a great degree again this year, the financial sector, the xlf, as you see it as a proxy for that, up 20% year-to-date, one of the stellar sectors in the stock market in 2013, maria. >> yes, bill, absolutely.

thank you so much. we are here in new york for our special coverage from the deutsche bank global annual services conference. deutsche bank has been working hard to beef up kits capital levels and transition its businesses to the new normal for the banks and amid tougher regulations. since our next guest became co-ceo about a year ago, deutsche bank stock has moved considerably higher. we want to welcome back to the program, anshu jain, and the first quarter was a good start to 2013. so what are his goals as the year goes on and beyond. anshu, great to have you on the program. >> terrific to be back. >> and it's great to be with you at your db access global financial services investor conference. what are the highlights coming out of this conference? it's a who's who of global ceos. what are you learning? >> $14 trillion represented in the audience. it's a powerful gathering from investors all around the world. and it's a note of cautious optimism, in star contrast to

this time last year, where there was a lot of discussion around the possibility of european default, a u.s. double dip, a chinese hard landing, i would say even though there are certain cautionary notes which were hit. for the most part, i would categorize the notion as being cautiously optimistic. >> that's great color for us. i want to get into europe and your take on that in a moment. let me stay on the markets, given your wealth management business and your exposure to business with your huge investment bank and capital markets type businesses. what do you think these markets tell us? we've got another sell-off today. we had obviously volatility last week. do you sense from your clients that there's a sentiment shift underway? >> not really. i think what you're referring to is a normalization of bond yields, which has been going on over the course of the last month, and some of the credit markets and so on and so forth, which i think is very constructive. at some point, the bond buying program will come to an end. and when it does, it will have

an impact on the overall structure of interest rates, particularly. and since you're seeing some evidence of that, but i wouldn't overinterrupt that. >> what about the federal reserve tapering? i mean, this has become the new topic. and every day we get another headlines, oh, you know, it will start in 2013, in 2014. what's your sense in terms of the impact on your business? when do you expect we see rates to actually really move in a sustained way? >> when deutsche bank has a research forecast on this, maria. we are calling for higher u.s. growth than many of our peers. and as a consequence, we're also calling for an end to the bond buying program that's happening as maybe as soon as the end of 2013, latest first quarter, 2013. that's our official forecast. >> and do you have a strategy around that? how do you really capitalize as the fed changes its position? >> we don't really have a strategy, as you know, proprietary trading is not something that banks do anymore. it's really a case of advising our clients and making sure we are well positioned to capture market share from the consequences of that development, if, indeed, that development comes true.

>> a lot of people see deutsche bank as well positioned, better positioned certainly after a capital raise. let me move on to the capital concerns. because i think that for a little while, capital concerns was an overhang, certainly, over your stock. but you recently completed a big raise. tell me where that money goes and are you finished raising capital at this point? >> we're very proud, maria, of what we've been able the to achieve. the new management team came together in june of 2012 and we've gone from really being behind our peers when it came to capitalization is now being one of the best capitalized banks in the world. in a very short period of time. nine months. that's come through a combination of organic measures. we sold a lot of our liquid assets and finally, as you've observed, it cams from the roughrough ly 3 billion euro raise of capital which take place a month ago. so we think where we're we feed to be. let me point out as well, that we decided to raise some tier one debt as well out of our commitment to make deutsche bank

an ultimately dissolvable bank. so we want to make sure we're addressing that as well. >> i'm glad you mentioned that. you've got the too big to fail proposals out there, which could potentially mean a separation of capital markets' intensive businesses versus deposit businesses. the pushout of derivatives on to exchange. the proposal that would mean deutsche bank would have to hold a institution and fund it. the volcker rule. all of these things, ring fencing profits for a number of companies in the financial services sector. can you characterize myth versus reality? where are the new rules likely to be? and what do you think is just sort of, will be debated and debated, but not actually implemented? >> it's very difficult to give you a clear read on which ones will make it through the legislative process and which ones won't. but there's no doubt that virtually every aspect of our business model, our capital ratios, our business practices

are being scrutinized and are the subject of regulation. i'm more concerned about the potential of regulation than i am about the quantum of regulation. let's be fair, 2008 was a very, very difficult time, for the entire world, not just for financial services. and the need for regulatory reform cannot be debated. to me, as long as it's a cohesive, well-balanced, sbe greated package of measures, so for me, really, basel three goes a long way towards addressing capital liquidity, so on and so forth. i would say a unified approach would be the one that would best serve all parties. >> a unified approach, but you can't really have a global standard, can you? i mean, you can't have one standard across the world for the major financial institutions. >> why not? >> okay, okay. that's a good point. so you think that you could have a global start, where all the banks adhere to, even though because you've got a lot of local regulators, federal reserve, you've got, you know,

regulations in switzerland, capping compensation ideas, you think this should be a global standard? >> i would draw your attention back to the financial stability board, and the outcome of the g-20 discussions that took place in 2009, which really forms a framework for a lot of the regulation, which has followed since. and the goal was precisely that, to create one comprehensive set of rules, which would span all banks, making them comparable and creating similarity across awe locati all locations. >> how worried should we be or should investors be about the cost of litigation. it seems whether it be for the mortgage-backed securities, libor, the litigation story will be with you and your counterparts throughout the industry for some time to come. is this ring fencing profits, does this eat into profits? >> litigation head winds are a reality which we'll have to deal with. at deutsche bank, we've given guidance, including today, this will be with us for a few quarters to come. we're working our way through it, we have a sense for what lies ahead. it's just something we'll have

to work through. >> and all of this leads to the question of dividend and stock buybacks, which is what investors are so concerned with. you say you are where you need to be in terms of being basel requirements. what about paying a dividend, increasing the dividend and buybacks? >> as you can imagine, that's one of the big themes all day today. a series of one-on-one s with investors and clients and it's very much what investors want to hear. a stock buyback policy, a dividend policy, and at deutsche bank, we have committed that once we hit the capital levels, which we are committed to, we will consider recommending a higher dividend policy. >> is that a 2013 affair or 2014? >> we have not been that specific so far. >> you're not sure. you're still working through all of this noise in some regard. >> we have to hit the capital numbers. we first need to get through the full framework of understanding which regulations are coming at what time. out of that will form a target ratio. having hit all of that, you have then the prospects of increasing your dividends.

>> what about the pressure around compensation? how do you retain talent when you have swiss regulators saying, you know, you can only have the highest paid person at 12 times what the lowest paid person is. do you think that materializes and do you have a plan for that, a strategy around that? >> we have cr04 in europe, which is fixing capitalization at one to one. so there's no doubt that exception practices are diverging across locations. we're committed to paying competitively for talent, equally, we have to understand, that you only get cultural change in our industry, when compensation is well aligned with behavior. so i think both sides are true. compensation practices do need reform. you've had reform. unfortunately, again, we have different standards and different locations which presents another challenge. >> all of these create so many challenges and have investors wondering, in fact, you've set a target of, what, 12% return on tangible equity. people are wondering if you'll

be able to get there with all of this noise. >> it's a 2015 target, maria. so happens we hit it in the first quarter of this year. but our official target is for 2015. >> how are you feeling about the markets and the economy for this year? >> i think it's cautiously optimistic. and i think we have to look back at where we were six months ago, a year ago. and relative to that, the greatest stability in europe, the fact that the u.s. growth figures have resumed, as well as they have, the case-shiller index doing well. china appearing to grow reasonably rapidly. i think all of that points in the right direction. against that, we have certain risk factors as well. you've alluded to one. but there's others too. you have to balance one against the other, but i would say cautious optimism. >> anshu, good to have you on the program. anshu jain, co-ceo of deutsche bank. tomorrow we'll get more on the state of the global banking industry when i talk exclusively with ubs ceo, sergio emotti.

>> looks like the tuesday streak may be over, the tuesday streak of up dow weeks. we're down 103 points right now, off the lows, but that would be quite a comeback if we were to pull that off in the next 30 minutes here, wouldn't it? >> yeah, it really would be. the market having a rough day today. meredith whitney says she's never been more ul bullish on equities. she's coming up in the program. >> also, a new deal between the nf and verizon is going to allow verizon wireless customers to watch even more football games on their phones. up next, we'll look at whether this will be a touchdown for verizon stock, coming up. [ male announcer ] my client gloria has a lot going on in her life. wife, mother, marathoner. but one day it's just gonna be james and her. so as their financial advisor, i'm helping them look

at their complete financial picture -- even the money they've invested elsewhere -- to create a plan that can help weather all kinds of markets. because that's how they're getting ready, for all the things they want to do. [ female announcer ] when people talk, great things can happen. so start a conversation with an advisor who's fully invested in you. wells fargo advisors. together we'll go far. [ male announcer ] this is kevin. to prove to you that aleve is the better choice for him, he's agreed to give it up. that's today? [ male announcer ] we'll be with him all day as he goes back to taking tylenol. i was okay, but after lunch my knee started to hurt again.

and now i've got to take more pills. ♪ yup. another pill stop. can i get my aleve back yet? ♪ for my pain, i want my aleve. ♪ [ male announcer ] look for the easy-open red arthritis cap.

welcome back. did verizon just score a touchdown with the nfl, on a new streaming deal. we want to get right to julia boorstin, she's looking ining a story. >> the nfl is embracing mobile, today announcing it will make more live games available to verizon wireless phones. the four-year verizon deal extension is valued at $1 billion. nearly 40% more than their last four-year deal. the nfl mobile by verizon app costs $5 a month. starting next year, smartphone subscribers will have live-streaming access to all regular-season cbs and fox games in their home markets. previously, only playoff games leading up to the super bowl were available. now, the tablets are still on the sidelines. they can only be used to access highlights and game clips. but users can watch with wi-fi,

so they don't eat up their data. and the app is exclusive to verizon mobile subscribers. now, the nfl also collects $1 billion a year from directv for exclusive satellite tv access to its sunday games, a deal which expires after the 2014 season. and just two weeks ago, the nfl inked another five-year deal, this one with microsoft to include nfl content on its new xbox one console, paying the nfl $400 million. now, despite the fact that there are more alternatives than ever in the entertainment space, thanks to the about of sports to drive realtime viewing, that sports content continues to grow in value. bill, over to you. >> julia, thank you. verizon has been a strong stock this year. you saw that on that jet year-to-date chart, but it was lower last month. does this deal change the game for investors? that's what we're talking about in talking numbers on the technical side with rich ross, on the fundamental side, it's

mark lichtenfeld. good to see you both. rich, what do you think of that chart on verizon? >> bill, this is an outstanding chart. i love verizon right here. as you alluded to, the stock was a strong performer, climbing 25% year-to-date, but then we established that sinister double top. the stock cuts that gain in half, we get a textbook 10% correction. but what i love about this stock is yesterday's intra-day reversal or bullish hammer. that's your buy signal. that tells you the stock is washed out. i'm looking for a v-shaped reversal, back up into previous support, which is resistant, around the 50-day moving average at $51 a share. there's upside to that around 54. you want to buy it right here. >> mark, what do you think, fundamentally about, for example, the deal with the nfl and what it contributes to their mobile strategy right now. do you like this company? >> yeah, i know we're talking about football, but this is a home run for verizon. you know, it just makes it even

more so the preferred carrier among consumers. what football fan whose stuck at their nephew's revital on a sunday afternoon won't want to watch the jets' game on their phone. maybe not the jets. but they've got the greatest margins and those margins are improving in the first quarter. operating margin went up to 21.1% from 18.4%. earnings per share are expected to rise 21% this year and you only have to pay about 17 times forward earnings. what i really like about this company, it's shareholder friendly. they have a share buyback program in place that goes back from 2011, that wraps up at the end of this year, early next year. so we could get a new one. and they're also paying at 4.2% dividend yield. and i'm a dividend guy, so i love that yield, and the fact that they've raised the dividend every individual year for the last eight years and have never cut the dividend since they've been paying it in 1987,

including the great recession. this is a terrific company operating on all cylinders. i'm a buyer. >> i'll leave it there. there's nothing to debate here and we'll move on because the market is coming back. thank you, guys, very much, your thoughts on verizon. >> maria, we have 30 minutes left and the dow is now down 59 points. we've retraced a hundred points almost in the last hour or so. is it possible that this streak could go to 21. >> it is possible. >> well, anything's possible. >> we have 30 long minutes. >> we have money coming into this market in the final hour. coming up, aig ceo, bob benmosche will react exclusively to the government designating the insurance giant too big to fail. he is here and commenting on that systemic important phrase, upcoming on the "closing bell." also, the fed seems to suddenly care very much about the market, the stock market. is that good or bad for investors? and what did one fed official say today about the stock market that has wall street buzzing?

that's coming up next as the "closing bell" returns. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 opportunities are waiting to be found in faraway places. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 markets on the rise. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 companies breaking through. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 endless possibilities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with schwab, i search the globe for the big movers. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can trade in 30 different markets tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help me seize opportunities, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 potentially better returns and new ways to diversify. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to get an edge, i use schwab's global research. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 they give me equity ratings on foreign stocks tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 based on things like fundamentals, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 momentum and risk. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i also have access to independent firms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 like ned davis research and economist intelligence unit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with my schwab global account, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can trade directly online in top markets tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 in their local currencies-- when the markets are open. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 plus, their global specialists are on call around the clock.

tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 there's a world of winners out there. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and now i have a better shot at finding them. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 now get our best global offer! tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trade commission-free online through september 2013 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when you open a schwab global account. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-800-308-8414. otherworldly things. but there are some things i've never seen before. this ge jet engine can understand 5,000 data samples per second. which is good for business. because planes use less fuel, spend less time on the ground and more time in the air. suddenly, faraway places don't seem so...far away. ♪

welcome back, the dow is coming back. the bulls are putting their rally cap on right now. the dow is down less than 50 points and we still have 25 minutes left in this trading session. it's possible. we'll see if the streak continues or if this is. the federal reserve never used to pay attention or much attention to the stock market, at least, that's what they said, but apparently that's changing. even today, kansas city fed president, esther george sent the markets spinning about her comments about tapering and stocks. >> steve liesman joins us now with the details of george's comments and why it further signals a recent fed focus on the market. also with us is joe doran. steve, i guess i would disagree with the way we led this piece, only that the fed doesn't focus on the stock market, because as i remember, alan greenspan focused on the stock market quite a bit with his so-called

wealth effect and what that does to people's ability to spend and feel richer. but what's going on now after miss george's comments? >> i wouldn't disagree with you, maria, it's always been out there as a focus for the fed. my point would be, over the past five years, while other channels for the federal reserve to affect the economy have become less effective, the failure of interest rate sensitive parts of the economy to respond to lower rates, as those have become more futile, the fed has focused on the stock market as a way to boost the economy, and it's a very, very ambivalent relationship, with on the one hand, some fed officials seeing it as a main conduit for wealth, and others seeing it as a main conduit for instability for the economy and the way for the fed to make a bad mistake. here are some of the ways that the fed sees the market, maria. consumer wealth. that's the wealth effect. also, corporate finance.

higher stock prices means lower economic growth. but on the other side, was look at what the hawks are saying about the market, they'll say it's a source of instability and a source of inflexibility, making it difficult for the fed to do the policy that is right, maria. >> you know, i would also argue during the last few news conferences that chairman bernanke has held, i think it's pretty clear, the comments he was making were in response to volatility in the market, on the gets about when tapering might begin. every tyime the word "taper" cae up, the market seemed to go down in some fashion. and the chairman seemed to be acknowledgie ining that the mar were maybe overexpecting this to happen. they're very sensitive to what the market's response will be when they do begin tapering. >> here's what we see when central governments get involved and try to stimulate the economy. there's been no evidence that that actually works. what it does do is push people

higher on the investment matrix, in taking risk. so, clearly, people have been more willing to take risks now, because it hasn't changed the underlying economy significantly. people are now willing to buy homes, they're willing to -- instead of buying money markets, they're going to corporate bonds. everyone's taken one step up on the risk curve. that's creating stability in the stock market and has driven the market higher. but it's creating a level of real, no fundamental improvement in our gdp. and as long as the governments continue to support all of the fiscal policies of the world's governments, you're going to see this continued pushout in risk, but no fundamental shift to the demand side of the economy itself. so i'm not sure it's going to play out as gloriously as we would like. >> so are you arguing there's no wealth effect from stocks at all? >> there is a wealth effect, but it comes because people are all being pushed to higher risk investments, which appreciate in value.

>> how can there be a wealth effect and no impact on gdp? i'm a little lost on the map there? >> i think what you see, people are willing to go up on risk, that creates an appreciation in assets, which for the time being, are hidden by the increased risk is not seen. and then what you'll see, eventually, is the risk comes back into the equation. people go back down the curve, and that wealth effect very quickly disappears. that's the biggest concern we have for our people, is they're not taking more risk than they want to. >> and that appropriate, joe? from an investment standpoint, what do you do given, you know, these differing views, in terms of when the fed should begin that tapering. how do you want to invest, given all of this. >> i think you should make the assumption, there's no clear site as to when they're going to start subsidizing our fiscal spending. that's true in japan, in europe, here in the u.s. and for as long as that's the case, you might need to take more risk, you need to understand what that means to

your portfolio. so we're typically looking at our client's entire net worth, they're pushing us to take more risk and we're showing them the consequences of what happens if we refer back to a net-risk environment. >> joe, i want to ask you a question. is your assessment that the risk in the average investor's portfolio now is higher or lower than it was before the financial crisis? >> i think it depends on when you look. at the end of the financial crisis, the overall forward risk was lower. the overall risk now is higher, because the market has gone up. >> how is that possible, joe, if you have a negative real return or just lightly positive on the ten-year note? people are so scared right now, and remain so scared, that they're willing to lend the u.s. government money for no inflation return. it strikes me that the average portfolio must have substantially less risk in it than it did before the financial crisis. >> it should, except for one thing that we see happening in

the economy, and that's that if you have an investment portfolio that is, today in fixed income, instead of ten-years, now own 30-year bonds. the other possibility of a slight tick up in interest rates, the impact to your portfolio is a lot, a lot higher. so as long as rates are low, the average investor has half of their money in fixed income. they have pushed out on the yield curve to capture yield, which means higher volatility. so if rates go up even a little -- >> i'm sorry, joe, you're making a point that's a little bit weird, because the average investor has more risk because they're in fixed income, and what the fed is coaching you to do is to go into stocks. it seems to me like you're disagreeing with a fed policy that is putting people into a less-risky asset. >> i'm saying that the fed is pushing you to take, if you're a fixed-income investor, to go to a longer maturity. if you're a longer maturity investor, to go to high yield. to push you one step up from

where you've been. and the sequences are your underlying risk are significant significantly higher than they would have been. >> we have a real comeback here in the market. i want to continue our look at the markets, which is what i'm sure the fed is doing as well. thank you both for joining me today. thank you very much. we have 15 minutes left, maria, down just 32 points on the industrial average right now. >> i love this comeback at the end of the day! can the tuesday super streak continue? you'll have to stick around to find out whether we can complete this comeback. that tuesday streak has been going on for 20 straight tuesdays of gains. and then, ubs, does it have plans to entertain the calls to split off its investment bank and sell off parts of the firm? sergio emmerotti will join me tomorrow at this time on the "closing bell." online banking, i get one view of my bank and brokerage accounts

with one login... to easily move my money when i need to. plus, when i call my local scottrade office, i can talk to someone who knows how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. awarded five-stars from smartmoney magazine. from the united states postal service a small design firm can ship like a big business. just go online to pay, print and have your packages picked up for free. we'll do the rest. ♪ see, i knew testosterone could affect sex drive, but not energy or even my mood. that's when i talked with my doctor. he gave me some blood tests... showed it was low t. that's it. it was a number. [ male announcer ] today, men with low t have androgel 1.62% testosterone gel. the #1 prescribed topical testosterone replacement therapy increases testosterone when used daily. women and children should avoid contact with application sites.

discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or signs in a woman, which may include changes in body hair or a large increase in acne, possibly due to accidental exposure. men with breast cancer or who have or might have prostate cancer, and women who are or may become pregnant or are breast-feeding, should not use androgel. serious side effects include worsening of an enlarged prostate, possible increased risk of prostate cancer, lower sperm count, swelling of ankles, feet, or body, enlarged or painful breasts, problems breathing during sleep, and blood clots in the legs. tell your doctor about your medical conditions and medications, especially insulin, corticosteroids, or medicines to decrease blood clotting. in a clinical study, over 80% of treated men had their t levels restored to normal. talk to your doctor about all your symptoms. get the blood tests. change your number. turn it up. androgel 1.62%. man: how did i get here? dumb luck? or good decisions? ones i've made. ones we've all made. about marriage. children. money.

about tomorrow. here's to good decisions. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. ready to plan for your family's future? we'll help you get there. bob pisani, a bull, just handed me a rally cap. he wanted me to put it on backwards. that's not happening, but a lot of people are wondering whether this tuesday streak is going to end here, robert. >> we have gone almost completely around here. put up the dow jones industrial average. why are we coming off the lows, because it's tuesday, dummies.

that's why. a market on close, orders will become a sporting event down here. those orders right at the close, the final print of the day, just talked with some of the traders, including art. of the 50 biggest stocks down here, 44 had to buy here, as of a few minutes ago. maybe that's paring off now, because we're coming off of our lows. the important thing is, two weeks ago, the market top, the day the fmoc minutes came out, and since thing, things have been quite volatility. utilities down and ten-year treasuries down as well. talk more about that at 4:00. guys, back to you. >> another trader just came by, plea maria, and told me the bias is heading back towards the sell side. 12 minutes left, down 42 point on the industrial average. it's going to be a squeaker in the last few minutes. >> any way you look at it, this is a victory, given that we were down better than 150 points. the market rallying recently after big sell-offs. up next, find if today's another buy on the dip opportunity. and we have mentioned this

before, pimco's bill gross says the fed's easy money policies are starting to hurt economic growth. he'll tell us why coming up later on the "closing bell." ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪ [ male announcer ] just when you thought you had experienced performance, a new ride comes along and changes everything. ♪ the 2013 lexus gs, with a dynamically tuned suspension and adjustable drive modes. because the ultimate expression of power is control. this is the pursuit of perfection. tens of thousands of dollars in hidden fees on their 401(k)s?! go to e-trade and roll over your old 401(k)s to a new e-trade retirement account. none of them charge annual fees

and all of them offer low cost investments. e-trade. less for us. more for you. and all of them offer low cost investments. with centurylink visionary cloud it'sinfrastructure,art. and custom communications solutions, your business is more reliable, secure, and agile.

welcome back. a few minutes to go in the trading day.

the closing bell sounding in about eight minutes. the dow minutes from ending its streak of 20 consecutive tuesday gains, but this is a victory, regardless. we had been down about 15 poi3 points at the low for the dow jones industrial average, and we're now down about a third of a percent, about 53 points lower. we have seen a good comeback in the last hour. >> very, very slight bias to the downside as we head to the close. the market is slowly moving down. but joining us with their market thoughts, larry contor from barclay's. and neither follow this market short-term. both are bigger picture. that's what we do here, report on it minute by minute, but have you noticed a change in the sentiment of the market in the last week or so? >> it's really been a couple of weeks bill. we had the shout across the bow with the first sell-off. and then the markets had a hard time finding leadership on a short-term basis. when you talk to clients, they're really looking for ideas

and where to put capital and they really have questions with respect to what has driven the rally. so you think about that as a u.s. benchmark portfolio manager, who is for the most -- for all intents and purposes, really underperforming, how do you capture those gains. that's why we have had such weakness in the yielding stocks, because there are gains to take. >> so, larry, what do you want to do here? knowing that the sentiment seems to have changed at least a little, in terms of federal reserve's tapering on the horizon, could comeome as early this year, the beginning, you know, just buying lower numbers in terms of bond purchases, how do you want to be invested? >> well, i think, first of all, tapering's priced in. >> you think it's in there already? >> yeah. we've had a 60-basis point move in the bond market. you've seen japan with very big moves. i think it's impressive how well the u.s. stock market's held up with a 60 basis point move in the ten-year. what it tells you is, we're in a great situation here. if things are strong, the

economy -- the only way the fed is going to start earlier is if the economy is super strong. that's not bad for stocks, maybe not good for bonds, but it's not bad for stocks. and if it's not, the fed is just going to keep pumping. a lot of the reaction, i think, was just a comment by fed chairman bernanke in the q&a, which was a conditional comment. they may start tapering in a few meetings, if the economic numbers are strong enough. and you know what, we actually think this sequester spending cuts is going to keep the economy kind of weak for another quarter or two. so probably not going to start tapering this year. >> so you don't sound like you'll start taking profits? >> could you see some correction here? yeah, the market's done so well here since last summer. but if we did have a 5% or even 10% -- we'd be buying here. you know, there's still, even after the bond yield run-up, just a tremendous value in stocks relative to bonds. still the case. >> brian, is this going to be a buy on the dip, you think?

>> it's not quite buy on the dip like the late '90s, maria, but we think we're entering into the 80s and 90s-type situation. we think we're more like the mid-80s, where you see a bit of a pullback, a regrouping, and higher. if you think about u.s. stocks as an asset, they provide the scarcity proposal. the scarcity proposal that u.s. stocks provide is that they are giving investors stability and consistent. what the capacity is, quite frankly, are volatility assets like emerging markets, like commodities. all the stuff that led in the prior cycle. at the end of the day, as an investor, you want to buy what's scarce. what's scarce is fundamental stability. >> all right! good to see you both. thank you. short and sweet, as we head towards this close here. the market trying to get something going. brian, larry, thank you both for joining us. heading towards the closing countdown here, maria. >> should investors be buying on any dip right now? we'll be talking with meredith whitney next. she's never been more bullish on

equities. that's coming up later on the "closing bell." back in a moment # hey kevin...still eating chalk for heartburn? yeah... try new alka seltzer fruit chews. they work fast on heartburn and taste awesome. these are good. told ya! i'm feeling better already. [ male announcer ] new alka seltzer fruits chews. enjoy the relief! [ kitt ] you know what's impressive?

a talking car. but i'll tell you what impresses me. a talking train. this ge locomotive can tell you exactly where it is, what it's carrying, while using less fuel. delivering whatever the world needs, when it needs it. ♪ after all, what's the point of talking if you don't have something important to say? ♪

bob will retire when he's 153, which would be fine if bob were a vampire. but he's not. ♪ he's an architect with two kids and a mortgage. luckily, he found someone who gave him a fresh perspective on his portfolio. and with some planning and effort, hopefully bob can retire at a more appropriate age. it's not rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. . welcome back. 90 seconds. here it is. here's the dow down 64 points. doesn't look like we're going to be positive on the close, so the streak ends at 20 tuesdays for the dow being up in that time.

terry dolan, you've been waiting 20 weeks. >> not quite. >> have you sensed, though, whether there's been a turn in sentiment for this market? >> i think we saw it developing, as we were watching the market getting longer and longer in the tooth, there was less and less advantages coming to the market, as value began to fade out of the market. the trend is still in tact, the economy is strong, somewhat. and what we need is a healthy correction to this market. a 40 to 50% retracement brings me down and then we can go from there. >> and you think that that's -- that's the way you've been trading this market. you've been waiting for this correction, of some kind. >> about three weeks. >> you think that's in the offing? >> i think the pattern over the next three months, june, this market is sideways or downwards, and it looks to build a better base and go forward or higher. >> thanks very much, terry dolan. and head toward the close for the bulls, at least, all good things must come to an end. it will end at 20 consecutive

tuesdays, where the dow finished higher, going back to january 15th. that's a new record. we put it in the books and move on from here. stay tuned. much more to come from the deutsche bank conference. maria's got bob benmosche and bill gross who has very strong language. that's coming up on the second hour of the "closing bell." i'll see you tomorrow. and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody, back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo with a financial extravaganza. we're coming to you from deutsche bank's global investor services conference in new york. this market staged a late-day come back, but it wasn't enough to stop the dow from snapping its super tuesday winning streak at an even 20. we saw a burst of buy k in the final 15 minutes of trading, but that was met with some sellers as well. as a result, the dow jones industrial average, while not