tv Fast Money CNBC June 14, 2013 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
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in. >> okay. >> but most of what we sell is -- >> and this one is $12,500. >> this rear tire this is all the mono stay because they come together in this bridge and set up into here. there's a tiny yolk between these two that's made from a 60-year-old cast that exists in a small shop. >> alex thanks for coming. we'll check your store out. have a great weekend, everybody. and i'll see you on monday. ♪ you can go your own way ♪ >> live from the nasdaq markets, i'm scott walker and this evening for melissa lee. dan nathan steve grasso guy adamy. "fast" is following the whip saw week for stocks. the dow posting its fourth triple-digit move in a row. the nasdaq having its worst week in two months.
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now we look ahead for the fed, the direction it may tell us. investigators will be listening closely to every word of the statement this wednesday. the vix was up 13%, as we said. worst week for the nasdaq in some two months. it's a lot to get your hands around here. >> plus it's the biggest week for the fed. >> and for the market, not just the fed. >> this coming week -- >> that's what i mean. >> he's the guy dictating the pace. what's he going to say. 90% of treasury market where does he go from here? >> 1,600, we bounced off it twice. that's the line in the sand. i think we'll hold that line probably before the fed meeting. but again, what has been going on? what has been coming out of the fed since may 22nd. it's been a lot of language
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that's causing volatility. so i don't expect a ton of clarity as far as the markets are concerned before wednesday's press conference. but if we break that after the meeting, i think we see 1550 quickly. >> here's what i'm going to tell you, the big money this week u.s. wise what they did was something very simple. they called shenanigans on this idea that the fed's going to come out and tell us that they're doing some kind of taper or cessation of buying back assets. look what bounced and went up. defensives utilities. treasuries had their first green week in the last seven. look at the reads, look at the utimts bouncing on the 50-day moving average. when you think about what big money is doing, they're saying we got a shock to the system but the truth s we still need yield. we're coming back to the old playbook. it was fascinating to see that in the concept of every other
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sector red monday through friday. >> i think the fed clearly matters, but they've said what they've said all along. they've been consistent in their language. they throw test balloons, but it comes back to the fact that they'll continue to do what they need to do. the world changed when japan had that blow-off top and everything's gone pear-shaped since. i think japan is the key. i think japan is out of control. i don't think they can put the genie back in the bottle there. as much as our fed matters here i think the bank of japan matters more. >> it used to be a case where the fed could do something to stop the bleeding from japan. i think they're totally out of bullets. i don't think it really matters what they say. we're at a point now in the markets, where bad news is bad -- and. >> some people think the fed will walk itself back from the notion that they'll taper anytime soon. [ all speak at once ]
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>> they did that on thursday. >> but this important they did it on thursday. >> are you -- >> guys listen to me we i havea 50-year low in inflation, there's flow taper happening. everyone is recognizing that right now. >> josh listen to me. here's the thing, though. [ all speak at once ] >> look at this chart. >> come mid week i'm telling you, if the fed gets out there and makes it clear that they're not tapering anytime soon you better not be short this market because you're going to get run over. >> you don't think people have factored that in to josh's pointd. >> it doesn't matter. every time people try to factor anything in when he speaks mid week, if he makes it clear they're not getting out of the game anytime soon rip your face off. you don't want to be on the wrong side of that, do you? >> japan had been doing everything by the book. right around the may 22nd level,
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you had the comments out of japan, where they said the yen is depreciated enough and everything has gone pear-shaped since. so you have to pay attention what's going on there. >> everyone's focused on the fed next week. our next guest said we should be looking elsewhere for the next big thing. u.s. chief investment officer at allianz. good to have you on. >> thank you. >> where should we be looking? most people are focused on the fed. >> i think the tapering discussion is a red herring. i think we'll get affirmation that they'll not be raising the short end anytime soon. but they'll be data dependent as far as the amount of qe is concerned. so there will still be uncertainty. but what the market should be focused on is earnings and the prospect for continued global slowdown. the. >> ism number was a bell we
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should have paid more attention to breaking below 50. i think the economy is likely to show continued weakness over the summer and that's likely to become more of a focal point than the fed. >> it's josh brown. you must have noticed the massive ocean of cash being sucked out of emerging markets, finding a home in developed markets. at what point does weakness in emerging markets start to act as a hindrance to the u.s. economy and the fort yen 500 that derives a lot of growth overseas? should we be looking at that as the true head wind? >> i think that's absolutely right. there was a conference this week with a lot of industrial companies and they're banking on a second half recover ne asia. frankly we're not seeing it. they'll have to bring down guidance. i don't think that's reflected in the stock prices. so i think it's much more of an earnings risk rather than a tapering story that's been getting the attention. >> here's what i don't understand. if you think the economic weakness is going to continue
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if you think that the global economy is telling more weakness that some people give it credit for, your picks are industrials and tech. why would i want to be in those two cyclical spaces if i believe the economy is getting worse, not better? >> let me touch on industrials first. i do think you have to differentiate between more commodity oriented industrials, where you'll see continued weakness with secular areas are not as tied to emerging markets. and it's really a play on the aerospace cycle which is not highly dependent on gdp. it's much more about fuel efficiency and the roll out of the 787 regardless of az dwrasiaasia. and tech it's so cheap at this point. and you have companies that are
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really stable in terms ever earnings stream microsoft being one of them. set to grow 10% plus for the next several years and trading at less than a market multiple. i think you'll see a rerating of tech, as people realize it's no as cyclical as it's traditionally been considered. >> good to see you. thanks for coming on. >> thank you. >> time to hit our top three trades of the day. first up apple, down 2.5% on the week hitting a low of 428 and change. so is the downturn based off the wwdc conference failing to impress the street. >> on a friday. it has its worst close in more than a month. a week ago, we were in agreement that the investment world had called the bottom and it was done going down. interestingly to me, expectations heading into wdc, they were mixed. all the developers came away
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from that thing excited. they got what they wanted. obviously wall street did not. approximate investigatorors did not. >> financials clocking in is the worst performing sector upon bank of america, citi jpm, all sliding. >> those stocks scare me especially the way the tape is. if you want to play the financials, look at the pullback of some of the asset managers. especially with raymond james. trading 42 and change now. i think with a pretty tight stop. to me out of all of them rjf gets it done here. >> lastly shares of walter energy getting taken to the wood shed, sliding over 17% after withdrawing $1.5 billion refinancing loan. company citing market conditions. >> they're all negative for the call space. but the next headline was no
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material debt payments due until 2015. that to me tells me they don't need money now, about you they need it then. sorry, the whole space needs money. still negative there. >> the biggest guy sure to drive the markets in the week ahead, straight ahead after the break. and the demand for mansions is booming. only one problem, though there's not enough supply. so what's a millionaire to do? we've got some answers. >> jeez i got to cut my hedges. look at that. 1-800-345-2550 markets on the rise. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 companies breaking through. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 endless possibilities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with schwab, i search the globe for the big movers. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can trade in 30 different markets tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help me seize opportunities, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 potentially better returns and new ways to diversify. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to get an edge, i use schwab's global research. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 they give me equity ratings on foreign stocks tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 based on things like fundamentals tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 momentum and risk. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i also have access to independent firms tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 like ned davis research and economist intelligence unit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with my schwab global account,
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>> restoration hardware beating the street on first quarter profits announcing also plans to launch two new brands next year. the stock soaring more than 21% this week alone. but are shares too expensive to get into here? let's go around the horn for the street fight. josh and grasso. bulls make their case first. go ahead. >> you nailed it. new product linds. you can't worry about valuation if you have new product lines. you have to be a buyer because you're hiring growth. they're geth into new product lines with experienced personnel. i'd be a buyer. people will short it and it will squeeze higher. >> i'm a bear here. i think the bull case doesn't
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make a lot of sense here. i looked at this thing today and it didn't make sense to me. why would you own this? it's not tesla, the valuation at 37 times next year's earnings. they'll go probably 20% a year. ethan allen trades half the multiple and it's very stable. you want to be in this space as a housing proxy, i think you go -- >> this is two consecutive quarters of beat and raise. professionals don't call tops in strong stocks. if you want to look for a name to be selling or short, you're not going after a company that continuously beats analysts -- >> who said short? >> you said sell. >> no no no. we're talking about new longs, new money. the stock is up 10% in one day. >> you want to let it fall back into the gap. >> that's what we're talking about. >> i don't think this is the type of name you want -- >> allow me too to be
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unprofessional. give josh credit for being all over tesla. you wait for the blow youf top to get out. i think what we saw today, all the shorts got squeezed. maybe they grow in maybe they don't, but unless the tape co-operates, and at this level, we don't know if it is. >> i agree the big risk here is market risk. i don't think it's company risk. quite frankly, what you should be looking for say little bit of a pullback to get this name. >> but you could see the market risk always drives stocks, because 2/3 of the stock trades with the overall market. but to our bullish point here landlords love them. they're a new tenant and guys are going to continuously short it and going to get run over. >> let's not forget there's a lot of room for -- >> i think today is the day people got run over. so now it does the back and
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fill. and this stock, where did it close? >> i think you all have -- [ all speak at once ] >> who is supposed to died who made the more compelling argument? robert frank? >> they're all winners today. >> oh come on! he'll be up later today. >> let's hit the top three trades driving the market next week. oracle set to report earnings thursday. shares down 7% in the past three months. what can we expect on thursday? >> this is a big one. we heard the last guest talk about a rerating in big cap tech. it's a cheap name trading 11 times earnings next year. expected to grow 9%. had a hiccup in the last fiscal quarter. the stock has yet to make a new high on the year. so to me you watch it closely. you want to see them and hear what they have to say about the global commy and i t. demand.
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>> fedex is set to release fourth quarter numbers wednesday before the bell. after lowering its guidance last quarter, what can we expect this time? >> sold off about eight, nine percent. i think this might surprise to the upside. people are underestimating the retirement of their fleet. i don't know why people got on the short side of this. i think it surprises to the up side. >> lastly housing starts out tuesday. investors just now getting used to a housing market moving up. grasso? >> incredibly vulnerable. but the housing starts are important. but you'll see the last gasp of people trying to capture those mortgage rates. what's more important? build permits. home depot is the way you play it it. >> wealthy home buyers are
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running into a problem. there's no more mansions to buy. robert has details on that. >> we know that housing inventory is falling across america, but the richest towns, are seeing some of the biggest declines. data shows that inventory homes priced a million or more fell 76% in carmel by the sea in california. falling 70% in palm beach and 58% in old greenwich, connecticut. let's go to palm beach. we got a mansion there, recently sold for $11.3 million. six bedrooms nice pool italian gardens. sales like this one are one reason that prices in palm beach are up year over year. they're only a handful of luxury homes left including this one. 5,000 square feet four bedrooms, wine cellar movie theater, a great beach out front. it's $8.2 million.
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but the buying frenzy at the top means that a million dollars or two million didn't buy what it used to. this cozy little home under 4,000 square feet, five bedrooms, $2.8 million. now, this shortage may be good for sellers, but agents worry if inventory keeps falling, that could hurt sales for the rest of the year. >> i think we're talking about the top of the top end but supply demand is an overall. >> nationwide inventory is down 12, 14%. 78% decline in a couple of these markets. there really are just two or three homes left in markets that there were 20 or 30 homes. so it's so dramatic. and these realtiors were loving life. now they're like what are we going to sell this year? these are the most discretionary seller because they don't have to sell until prices get where they want.
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>> what do people say on the lower end about being able to finance that house? obviously these guys don't have to worry about that. what are these guys doing actually? are they paying cash? what are they doing? >> they pay cash because they get a better deal. close quickly, and then get a mortgage afterward. so a lot of banks, like jpmorgan jpmorgan. but they're still taking advantage of the great interest rates. the wealthy have the best of all worlds right now. >> securitizing proposalortfolios, like bonds and stocks. and there's an eager community that are willing to allow them to do things like remodeling and whatever. but they're not mortgages, they're more like a loan. >> these communities, it's hard for them to come in here and take advantage of this.
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some of the bigger mass markets, you can do that. palm beach, greenwich, carmel the home builders aren't there. you can't put up multimillion dollar mansions overnight. >> mr. and mrs. robert frank brought it big time on fast money today. >> thanks. >> which stocks saw the biggest moves in this week's trading. we crunch the numbers and we're naming names next. stick around. we're back in two. >> the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. >> it's idea generation all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. as the world has changed our show has evolved. i am guy adamy, i am fast money. i am pete najarian, i am fast money.
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minute. they're selling canadian stores. they're actually selling their most profitable asset. the stock fades down. i don't like it. >> game stop. >> had a guest on this afternoon. >> thanks for watching. >> no problem. always do. there's a fear that digital will replace this company. i think those fears are overblown, but it is running to technical resistance around $40. >> are you listening? young brands dropping 3%. >> young brands no. this stock the comps were lousy. traded back up again couple weeks ago. failed. 68 written all over it. >> groupon. >> let me explain why this stock is up 12% on the day -- >> i said dan, not josh. >> oh, i'm sorry. >> this stock was up today, hitting ten-month high got
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speaking shaping up nicely. vgk is the vanguard version. >> nobody talks about gps. i think that will get you done into next week. >> you guys going to be watching dollar yen as well? >> absolutely. sunday night, ready to rock? >> yeah? >> that's what you're watching. >> how about rates? >> listen -- >> that does it for us have a great weekend. "fast money" will be back on monday. don't go anywhere. "options action" starts after this break. so you can capture your receipts, and manage them online with jot, the latest app from ink. so you can spend less time doing paperwork. and more time doing paperwork. ink from chase. so you can. for over 125 years we've been bringing
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