been a big day tomorrow and a big one tomorrow. wees, ticker symbol? >> weis won the debate and "power" starts now. >> good afternoon, everybody. surveillance location and the nsa. the government says the program foiled an attack on the new york stock exchange, and that's where we begin this hour. sue is at the new york stock exchange. >> hi, ty, and since that plot was made public, the security here is a little bit tighter, and it is a very sobering reminder of the fact that the united states and new york in particular and this very building are still the bullseye for many international terrorists. eamon javers has been watching the nsa hearings very closely and joins us now live in washington. eamon, over to you. >> hi, sue.

here's what's going on today. the house intelligence committee is holding a hearing that's still going on. in that hearing they are hearing from u.s. intelligence officials, including the head of the nsa and the deputy director of the fbi, shaun joyce. these officials have been eager to explain why the nsa snooping programs revealed by the leaker last week are important and necessary saying they have foiled up to 50 plots. they are going to turn the details of those plots over to the committee, but one of those plots involved an attempt, what he called a nascent attempt to plot a bombing at the new york stock exchange. take a listen to next change from a little bit earlier this morning. >> would you say that this -- their intention to blow up the new york stock exchange was a serious plot, or is this something that they kind of dreamed about, you know, talking among their buddies? >> i think the jury considered it a serious since they were all convicted. >> okay. so clearly the officials here at pains to present a picture here of a program that's been well

overseen, is responsible, is legal and is producing results in terms of intelligence collection that's protecting americans, all of that to push back on edward snowden, the leaker himself works just yesterday, remember, gave an online interview to the london "guardian" newspaper in which he said that the american people haven't really given their consent if it's not informed consent, if they are don't know what they are consenting to. he was in part disappointed with some of the media coverage focusing on him and who he is, rather than on the programs he's revealed. he's getting that debate this morning. u.s. intelligence officials now very eager to explain what these programs are, what they can and can't do, and how they are protecting americans. >> eamon, thank you very much. now, obviously this is not the first time that wall street has been targeted. we know that. bob pisani has more on that side of the story, and he's right outside of the exchange for us. hi, bob. >> hello, sue. this has been a high security area for many, many years,

particularly after 9/11. this used to be accessible to the public, the floor of the new york stock exchange. the floor was closed to the general public, the visitors gallery closed after 9/11, and just to get into the building you have to pass a series of very stringent security requirements. i would note, sue, that this is not the only high security building that's in the neighborhood. right past me here is federal hall, but beyond that right up nassau street is the federal reserve of new york, literally just an eighth of a mile from here. there's no slack off in 12 or 13 years since 9/11. sue. >> i would agree with that completely, would be. thank you very much. neil ferguson is a harvard economist and is here to weigh in on many things but we obviously want to start with this breaking news. first of all, good to see you again. >> it's been a while. >> your take on this. a plot that was thwarted, not necessarily new that this part

of the world is targeted, but it does seem as though there are still a lot of people out there that wish ill on the united states and new york in particular. >> yes. i think in all of this great debate about mr. snowden and his supposed whistleblowing or leaking which is more accurate it it's easy toe forget how good the intelligence has been. there's been a concerted effort to harness technology, to try to spot patterns in the noise, and there's a hell of a lot of noise, and the key point you is don't get many rewards in our world for thwarting planned attacks. not many payoffs to politicians, administrations who successfully prevent things from happening. this has been a problem throughout the war on terror, that success in so far as it happens in the shadows, and it involves secret methods, you get noticed when you fail to stop things from happening as in the

case of the boston bombings but we don't give much to security services when they prevent attacks and they clearly have prevented many in the last decade. >> you'll be with us throughout the hour, appreciate it. we wanted to get your take on that and we'll be back with you in a few minutes. ty, up to you. >> thank you very much. another big story we're following at this hour. housing starts up 6.8%, more than expected, but still the upward trend is in place. diana olick live in washington. diana? >> reporter: the headline number was positive, as you said, but not as much as the street expected and largely driven by multi-family apartment construction. this as supplies of single-family existing homes are still incredibly low. you have to break down the numbers to see it. multi-family starts rose 25% month to month in way and are up 69% from a year ago. single family, basically flat, up just.3% and up 16% from a year ago. permits were healthier. single family rising to the highest level since 2008, while

multi-family did take a little breather. the good news is that we need more housing, so construction jobs should be plentiful in the near future at least. the builders are blaming lackluster single family starts on, quote, unusually wet weather in may, but really, it's a lack of land, labor and materials and a conscious effort object part of some of the big builders to slow production in order to take advantage of rising prices. back to you. >> all right, diana. stay with us, and let's talk more about this. jay mills is coldwell bankers number one real estate worldwide, specializing in luxury properties in and around los angeles and is with us as well as al goldstein, ceo of panga properties, a reit portfolio serving the lower income district in baltimore, chicago and indianapolis and fatherly ferguson, "time" magazine naming him one of the most influential people in the world so a great panel here. let me start with you,

mr. goldstein. tell me about the state of the market that you serve. we hear a lot about the middle market, but you go into some of the less desirable areas, and you really try and rejuvenate the entire neighborhood. >> yeah, that's exactly right, so we were originally started in 2009 to invest in distressed apartments in lower and middle income neighborhoods. i think the real estate market has gotten very strong over the years. the rental market is strong up and down the chain core, multi-family apartments incredibly strong, driven by low yields, as you mentioned, but also in our markets we're seeing a reawakening of investor demand as well as strong rents. >> and jay, weigh in on how your markets are faring, you're in one of the most expensive markets, and one that a lot of people say is looking quite overheated. >> well, we're booming. we don't have enough inventory and we have people that are willing to buy. i would say there are multiple

offers if something comes on the market that is reasonably priced, we have multiple offers. we are up 9% overall. we're up 3.7% over 5 million, and we would be way over that if we had inventory. the flippers and all the people who redo houses and sell them are back in the market. of course, those take between six months and a year to redo so inventory will be better in another six months to a year, but right now we are very short on inventory. >> neil, as you travel around the world, i know you see a lot of different fluctuations and a lot of different economies, but housing is key to the u.s. economic recovery along with jobs. how does it look to you? >> i come home from my travels i see it in my own street, that a developer bought the property opposite of us, completely overhauling the original house and building a new one right next to it, kind of noisy.

sends me back in my travels again. the infliction point happened, i can tell you when it happened, whenity remortgaged and fixed, and from that moment on you've seen the tightening beginning, and this is going to be a very interesting challenge for the housing recovery as we get further indications from the fed tomorrow that there's tightening coming. that's already begun to affect mortgage rates, and if there's one thing that could cool things down it's going to be a sense that the party is over in terms of quantitative easing. >> diana, weigh in on that, you've made the very points that there may be a cooling of course, but as rates rise it may get people off the couch and into contracts. >> yeah. that's a very short-term phenomenon, and i'd be interested to hear from neil what he thinks of the housing market, especially in the formerly distressed markets and out in california is all cash. got a report recently that showed people are paying all cash for homes and those using a mortgage are putting much more skin in the game and much larger down payments in order to get the lower rates, and they are

saying that they don't expect to see any big change. you see rising interest rates, up to a full percentage rate, because so much of this market is cash. i'm curious to see what he thinks about that. >> that's a really interesting point because this is partly to do with somewhat tighter lending standards and also part of the caution that we all feel post the crisis and finally what we're seeing here i think is the extent to which monetary policy under ben bernanke has essentially been favorable to the wealthy, and if you're making a lot of money on your stock poll, then you do have the cash to go out and buy that second home that you fancied on the californian coast. i think the story is distinctly tougher at the other end of the income distribution, and that's what we should focus on because that affects a lot more people. >> al, that affects you. obviously you've done very well. your reit has done extremely well and returning a good percentage to investors, but what has you a little nervous or wire i had at all about the trajectory of the housing

market? >> well, i think the market has gotten very competitive and cap rate depression driven by low interest rates makes it challenging for investors like us to find value, so it's interesting to see what happens if rates start to tick up and will that put a floor underneath where cap rates have gone and maybe that makes it more attr t attractive for investors like us to keep investing. really hard to predict. >> sure is. that's why we put the panel together. thanks very much, appreciate it, and we'll have more with you in a couple of minutes. >> sue, we move from house together cnbc fed survey, sort of the looming factor there on the eve of the fed's decision day tomorrow. our senior economics reporter is steve liesman but you knew that already. steve. >> thanks, tyler, really interesting development in the fed survey. 60 respondents and economists and wall street strategists bringing down the level of the probability of recession to the lowest level since we began the survey. back when we started it was 36%, probability of recession the next 12 months and that was

around the time of the big debt ceiling debate. fiscal cliff debate 28.5%, falling now for several months in a row. 16% is now the probability. the lowest level of recession since we've been doing this survey for three years. one of the biggest problems in the economy, interesting changes here. used to be concerned about too little deficit reduction. that back in april. that's fallen off. not a whole lot of concern about deflation or overall inflation and a little bit more concern about too much deficit reduction, that the sequester is hitting the economy in a bad way, but those aren't on the top. let's go to the next one to look at the top, the next graphic, there we go. the european financial crisis falling off, slow job growth and tax and regulatory policies the two maintaining the top spot for the second month in a row. let's see some of the other ones, 11% sluggish overseas growth, overall uncertainty. asset price bubbles and declines. slow income growth, slow overall growth, and then there's

negative economic commentary by the press. thought i'd throw that in there. someone did mention that. as for the overall economic outlook, really unchanged since the april survey. looking for 2.1% year over year and accelerating to 2.6% next year. tyler, not a lot of concern about a recession in the united states, but really when i look at these numbers here, not a whole lot of growth expected either given how far we sank, tyler. >> steve liesman, thanks very much. what's your take on the overall environment in the united states economically right now, and as that survey indicated, slow job growth was the second most frequently cited sort of stressor in the economy, and do you think that quantitative easing has created one job even? >> oh, i think it's created a whole lot more than one. quantitative easing also has prevented the destruction of a great many jobs that would otherwise have been lost. i think you have to think of qe as the anti-depression policy

that the federal pursued, and it did succeed in averting a second great depression. credit where it's due, but i think it's a little too early to call this all off. i'm surprise that had in the survey there's not more concern about deflation because actually the inflation number. >> i agree. >> keeps surprise together downside, and if i'm ben bernanke that's my big worry, that we're not out of the deflationary danger zone. >> we asked him that and some different questions and i was surprised how little concern there is about deflation or inflation. there's a sense right now that we're in a sweet spot and when we asked what people thought were for the low levels of inflation, the reasons that came back was global economic weakness and domestic weakness, that there was an underlying economic weakness pulling down prices, and i don't know at what point the fed starts to get concerned, but over the past couple of weeks we have been hearing more and more concern that this decline in the overall level of inflation could be a lever or a catalyst for policy. >> what i'm really doubtful is

we're going to see a sudden end to qe. a lot of premature talk to tapering. i'd be very surprise federal that talk got more encouragement tomorrow because the deflationary signals are telling ben bernanke to keep on go, you are not out of trouble yet. >> i think people aren't familiar with -- with the concept of deflation in this country. i mean, we had it in asset prices, had it in housing prices in the mid part of the last decade, but i want to go back to the question i asked about quantitative easing. describe for me the mechanism by which you see quantitative easing having created jobs. >> well, essentially what we did here was to go beyond conventional monetary policy which was zero interest rates to something unconventional which was massively to increase the size of the monetary base. that's the federal balance sheet. in technical terms this created a whole lost excess for reserve banks and in practice what it did was artificially get down

long-term rates. this has been a massive bond buying campaign for the fed and it's still on a vastly large scale, still $85 billion worth of purchases. the taper threat, the threat that the fed will start buying less immediately impacts the bond market becau. as the markets try to second guess when the medicine is going to be dialed down and when the dose is going to be reduced, i think this is one of those big infliction points that we've seen in u.s. economic history, comparable with coming out of the inflationary '80s or even out of world war ii which is a better analogy. it took several years to entirely understand how far policy has changed so look out for more volatility coming soon. >> on that cheery note we'll leave it and be back with niall in a few minutes to talk about a

variety of things, including why it's so bloody hard to do business in his view in the united states. steve liesman, thank you as well. today on the big data download. it's all about stocks and interest rates. which sectors tend to make the biggest moves when yields go up and which sectors feel the biggest hit when rates go down. check it out at bigdata.cnbc.com. it's also on apple's mobile app -- on cnbc's mobile app on apple. sue? >> ty, investor carl icahn works has been trying to put together alternatives to ceo michael dell's 1365 per share buyout is now calling on dell to begin a tender offer at $14 per share. icahn says a major vest bank is willing to make $1.6 billion in financing available, and he says he's obtaining commitments for a larger amount. carl icahn will be a keynote speaker at cnbc's delivering alpha conference next month. tickets are still available. deliveringalpha.com. ty, up to you.

>> days after terrible fighting in turkey, another nation on the rise. a country investors have been very optimistic about breaks down into a night of massive violence. we'll tell you where it is and what happened just ahead. plus, jane wells catching up with one sorry guy in l.a. here's jane. >> reporter: scott london threw away a 30-year career at kpmg, big job, big pay, all over $70,000 in kickbacks, and before he had pleads guilty to a judge, he talks to us. we'll have that after the break. >> five big wall street names from five big wall street firms with five big predictions on where wall street is heading in the second half. it's all on one big hour of "power lunch" this thursday 1:00 p.m. eastern. you want to know where the markets are going? these people get paid to look forward, and they are only on "power lunch." don't miss "the power summit" 1:00 p.m. eastern thursday. ♪ norfolk southern what's your function? ♪

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with the dow up 124 points, let's head out to los angeles where jane wells caught up exclusively with scott london who is one very contrite insider trader. jane? >> reporter: saw, scott london has never denied he committed a crime, but he insists this is the first time and that no one else at kpmg had anything to do with it, and the feds apparently believe him, so he came to court

preparing to plead guilty yesterday to securities fraud and facing the potential 20 years of prison for giving a friend tips on companies like herbalife and skechers ahead of earnings, and for the first time he spoke on camera. how did it happen? >> it's just through discussions at dinner and so forth and the other individual, you know, i might say something casual about frustration at a certain client, and, you know, the other individual traded off of that unbeknownst to me and then he brought to my attention and started asking questions and said, hey, well, you know, what's this company doing and what's that company doing, and, unfortunately, i gave him the information. you know, i never once asked for any money, never -- there was no -- >> reporter: but you didn't turn it down? >> that's correct. like i said, i regret everything i did and i take full responsibility, full accountability for what i did, and i want to make that clear.

>> reporter: so now what do you do, and do you ever work again? assuming you stay out of prison, who knows. >> i'm going to work. i'm only 50. my kids might think it but it's not old, and i still plan to work, i have to support my family. i have two kids in college, and i'll wait on tables, i'll -- you know, i'll do whatever it takes. >> reporter: well, he has to find out first whether or not he goes to prison. london tells me he netted about 70 grand in cash and gifts and kickbacks from his friend brian shaw who he says he was just trying to help. says he had no idea shaw made over $1 million on illegal trades. shaw has pled guilty for his part and is awaiting sentencing, and sue, in case you are wondering, they are no longer friends. >> i would imagine so. thank you, jane. well, first the violence hit turkey, an economy on the rise loved by investors and corporations alike, and now violence has spread to another country, also on the rise, also loved by investors and

corporations alike. we are talking about these two key emerging markets, both on the verge of arriving and now plagued by violence. that's coming up next. in today's markets, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price -- maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. a talking car. but i'll tell you what impresses me. a talking train. this ge locomotive can tell you exactly where it is, what it's carrying, while using less fuel. delivering whatever the world needs, when it needs it. ♪ after all, what's the point of talking if you don't have something important to say?

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protest hikes in bus and subway fares. there's also anger over poor public services generally, over government corruption and social issues. this, of course, all happening in the middle of concacaf, the big soccer tournament, that is a practice run for next year's world cup in brazil. in addition, pope francis is set to visit the country next month, and then there's the olympics in 2016. let's take a look at video of commuter helicopters flying over the traffic in sao paolo in 2011. the wealthy use them to get from point to point rather than driving. michelle caruso-cabrera was there, actually helped shoot some of this footage, and saw the problems that this booming economy is having, and she joins us now, along with niall ferguson. michelle, what does it tell you that that 100,000 people will come into the squares and streets of many cities in brazil to protest a hike in bus and subway fares? >> yeah, a nine-cent hike in bus

and subway fares, showing deep dissatisfaction with the infrastructure in the country which is so tough. i mean, the poor, forced to ride on buses that are extremely slow. the traffic is horrendous. that is why sao paolo, for example, has more helicopters per capita than any other city in the world, more landing pads than any other city in the world on top of all the buildings, because the rich want to avoid the traffic and also the crime that is on the ground. what you see with all of this violence, people see a lot of money being spent on new infrastructure for stadiums, for the world cup, and they don't see very good roads or ways to get around, really frustrated and they feel forgotten. >> niall, react here to what we're seeing. you mentioned earlier the idea that the wealthy are doing very well in this country in part because of the rising stock market and qe2 and 3 and 4 and 5, whatever they are, but the poor, of whom there are many more is not doing so well is

this a symptom of that and a stress on the social fabric that could come to even a country like ours? >> i'll put it differently. i was in sao paolo three weeks ago, and it's quite few the infrastructure sucks. this is a movement rising expectations. this is a country doing much more than its historical average. it's had a really golden decade and, of course, promoted to the brics by goldman sachs and the economy has been doing less well. i who is short brazil and long mexico last year and people have gotten used to rising living standards and inequality coming down in brazil from its extraordinary terrible heights and now as the economy slows down, the frustration boils over because people's expectations were rights and now they are disappointed. it's interesting that it starts with infrastructure, but this is also a problem ahead of an election, and really you have a government which has become somewhat paralyzed by the prospects of re-election playing

be a incredibly cautious came and hoping to make it to the new elections next year and, unfortunately, not making it. >> could i add to that, niall, and sue and tyler. the government responded to the slowdown in the economy by lots more spending, lots of infrastructure projects and countries make things over and over thinking we'll big build stadiums and don't do things that would reform the economy, make it easier to start a business or make it easier to hire people which would solve a lot more of their problems with what they are doing with all the big building. >> niall, i guess the question is now we've seen turkey. we've seen brazil what. other emerging markets are susceptible to this type of uprising? you've just gotten back from traveling around the world. what did you see, and which markets are you targeting right now? >> there are two places that immediately spring to mind, two kinds of city that we could see burn this summer. i think the big european cities with paris at the top of the list look extremely vulnerable, and, remember, paris has a

greater tradition of urban rioting than almost any city in the world. the situation in that economy is bad, and the youth unemployment problem right across latin europe is really, it seems to me, an explosion waiting to go off. the interesting thing is that these riots have been happening in places which don't have those problems, istanbul, sao paolo. we also had trouble in parts of stockholm that you don't think of as a place that's about to blow, so it looks like we should also keep our eyes open for trouble in big emerging market cities where the rising expectations are about to be disappointed. maybe even china works knows. >> i was going to say. does that include china? >> been in china, spent most of april there. the leadership really seriously worried about the possibility of revolution. why are they reading detoqueville's old regime in the revolution? they think they are 18th century france and that's skeptical. skeptical what i heard about, i asked are you really reading detoqueville, and they said absolutely. the chinese are really worried. my guess is they have a better

handle on this their their counterparts in brazil because one thing the chinese communists do pretty well is public order. they run a pretty efficient police state so i'm not expecting riots in shanghai or beijing but clearly other emerging market cities that could experience the same thing. there's a copecat effect. >> that's true. >> you see it on youtube and you're tempted to take to the streets in your city. >> i see brazil on the one hand and michelle and niall on the other turkey. we talked about that at the top of the program. to what extent are economic grievances at play in what's been going on in turk? michelle, why don't you go first and then, niall, jump in. >> turkey is a slightly different situation. >> yeah. >> because you had people protesting. they felt there was too much development going on there, but, at the same time, i think you could talk about turkey, brazil and china and note commonality amongst all countries, inflation. inflation is problematic, a big problem in china, a big problem in brazil. less so and as a result you want

to get the poor upset and you want an uprising. inflation will do it. when your monthly or weekly paycheck can't keep pace with the price of oil to cook your food, it's ripe for unrest. >> do you agree, niall? >> the turkey situation is a political story, pushback against political islam. look what's happening in other cities in that area. if there's one place i worry a lot about, it's cairo. egypt is on the edge of a cliff, and i could well imagine it going over that cliff this year. >> all right. niall, thank you very much. michelle, great to see you. niall, back with you in just a few minutes. sue? >> we're focusing on the markets with the dow jones industrial average up 113 points. what's gold doing? well, it was down earlier on. bertha coombs is tracking the action over at the nymex. >> hi, bertha. down all day and gold closing here at a one-month low even as the dollar is weaker at this hour. a lot of traders on edge ahead of tomorrow's press conference by fed chairman ben bernanke. those weak housing start numbers certainly didn't help copper

today which closes near a six-week hoe and palladium has been under pressure all day. some really weak car-buying numbers coming out of europe, palladium, platinum used for catalytic converters, both of them under pressure today. >> thanks very much. to the trading floor, bob pisani is on the floor of the nyse. bob, what are you watching right now? >> well, trade remembers worried about mr. bernanke's press conference and certainly not showing, it two days essentially where the markets have moved to the upside. the important thing is i think people are getting more comfortable with the concept of tapering occurring, and i'm sure he's going to talk about that. he can't let that really get away from himself too much here. the important thing is we're seeing stocks to the upside, and kenny pulcari, the important thing, seeing gold down as well, deflationary concerns. cpi under control. >> let's not forget this. seeing stocks to the upside on almost zero volume. only traded 230 million shares,

there and that what that tells you there's no big commitment from traders and day traders pushing the market around so i wouldn't read too, too much into it. i think you have to play this carefully. >> much more stability in the markets, if you look at emerging markets, more stable. >> yes. >> a terrible two weeks just until the end of last week. we saw the dxj, the japanese markets more stable. >> right. >> bonds down, but not dropping like they were a week ago. >> but i think, you know, the markets around the world have been in a holding pattern waiting to see what they are going to get and i don't think they will hear much of anything. >> i think mr. bernanke will be much trying to not let this get away from him and being very gentle on both sides of this equation. >> thank you, gentlemen, appreciate t.seema modi following the big movers up there. >> another day of big gains ahead of ben bernanke's statement tomorrow. the nasdaq up 27 points on the day. apple shares in focus treading

the flat line. peter mizic writing if apple were to unveil a watch of sort, it's unlikely to be a new major product line. blackberry, rbc capital sees the blackberry 10s sell through writing canada, the uk and middle east are showing the strongest blackberry demand. up 4%. facebook up 2% ahead of its big unveil on thursday. sue, back to you. >> seema, thank you. to the cme in chicago where we see interest rates and the ten-year trading at 2.16%. rick santelli, what's on your radar screen? >> rejection back at the 223 level for 10s, highly unchanged at the moment. the dollar has a bit of a bit as you see on the intraday chart on the yen. it's a three and a half month high all going into the first day of the fomc meeting, and by the way in chicago last night at the council of global relations,

mr. ferguson was a big hit. many of my friends were in the audience. they especially loved the edmond burke quote that he started out with that was the theme of his talk for the night. maybe he could mention that. >> i was making an argument from my new book that we've broken the contract between the generations, and what we've done with our crazy system of unfunded liabilities and medicare and social security, not to mention the federal debt itself. we've broken the contract between the generations. this goesing to paid for by the young and by the unborn. they don't get to vote so it's easy toe pass the buck to them. >> we'll talk more about that in the rundown coming up, niall. has ben bernanke run his course at the fed? that's what we asked in today's yahoo! finance poll and we'll get into it with mr. ferguson in just a couple of seconds as "power lunch" continues. what's in your ear? oooo! a quarter!

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kind of a wrinkle on our power rundown, sue. joining us is our guest host for

the hour, niall ferguson and congratulations on your new book, "the great degeneration." in the book you're arguing it's harder than ever, among other things, to do business in the united states and that -- and that more stimulus, monetary i suppose, maybe fiscal as well, is not the answer so make the case. why has it gotten so hard to do business in the united states? >> well, i think we need to change the subject from macro stimulus and start looking at the structure and i'm not talking about labor market problems. i'm talking about the jungle of red tape that you enter if you try to start a business in the united states. i find this out hard way by trying to do it, and i was amazed to find it's actually harder to start a business in new england than in old england, partly regulation. every year thousands of new regulations come poring forward from 63 different government departments and agencies, and the regulatory burden financially weighs most heavily on small businesses. the cost per employee is 36% to 40% higher. if you're a small business no,

wonder small businesses aren't hiring and growing, and until we have incentives for small businesses to expand, we won't get the jobs growth we've seen in the past >> you also bring up lawyers. >> yeah. >> the billable hours. >> just when you think you've got through the regulation nation, you are suddenly hit by the rule of lawyers and that's scary because there's the whole tort law problem which is quite unique to the united states. costs three times as much in relative terms as it does in the uk. >> another hurdle. >> so you have the class action phenomenon which for many corporations has become as big a headache for regulations. >> to the president's interview with charlie rose where he indicated that mr. bernanke stayed perhaps longer than he intended to. what are the implications if mr. bernanke leaves, and do you think miss yellin would get that appointment or not? >> well, i'm a tiny bit surprised by this because i had a hunch that bernanke might stay on just a little bit longer to run the end of the experiment. we are in the midst of the biggest monetary experiment in the history of the federal

reserve. it's all ben's. >> you would think he would want to finish? >> that's my hunch. if he is going to go we have to look at tim geithner as plausibly a safer bet than janet yellin, but, you know, this president likes to appoint women and that's got to be a good thing. >> market implications of that? >> i think we're already in for volatility even if ben bernanke sticks around. >> okay. >> to have somebody new and untried in the job with communications so sensitive, i think that has to increase the volatility risk. >> next topic, we did the yahoo! finance.com on whether mr. bernanke has run his course at the fed. 41% said yes, we should leave now and 36% said he should superadvise the tapering of the stimulus and 36% said stay for another term. >> interesting poll results and another interesting phenomenon is not just the recurrent arrivals of activists of carl icahn and others stirring up the pot and now others stirring up

the head, starboard value moving in now saying smithfield foods should not be sold to the chinese firm but rather should be broken up and the shareholders would do better if it was. talk to me about that and whether you vee activiiew activ investors as players in the marketplace. >> we need more of them. it's activist investors that shia cleric up board rooms and get companies to be managed better. one of the most exciting things that we have right now is the site of activist investors from the u.s. going abroad and plying their trade in economies like japan that desperately need a shakeup in the board rooms. i think dan loeb's play for sony has to be one of the more exciting stories. we need more like dan out there shaking up the board rooms. >> all right. finally, why hollywood loves to hate wall street. take a listen. >> was all this legal? absolutely not.

>> we were making more money than what we knew what to do with. >> it's a story that keeps giving. we're always in trouble down here on wall street, it seems. >> i was just out in hollywood the other day having a conversation about the fundamental problem hollywood has. it's really hard to make finance look good on the screen, because in the end if you depict the financial world the way it really is, it's really not that exciting. it's guys sitting in front of bloomberg screens. >> and many of them doing very good things. >> this is an attempt, i haven't seen the movie, barely saw the trailer, to try to solve that problem, and i don't think anybody has really nailed it to be honest since that first wall street movie way back when. i think all the other attempts we've seen since then have fallen short and i think it's because it's inherently a rather boring thing to watch on the screen? >> ty, you want to weigh? >> i think he's got it nailed there. i think wall street, the first one nailed a moment in time. >> right.

>> hand that basically no other movie on finance on wall street has been able to do that quite as successfully, and there are very few car chases on wall street, too. >> that's right. >> this is very true. niall, thank you. back with you in a little bit. some devastating flooding overseas. the pictures, take a lock. they are absolutely astounding. we'll update that story for you coming next, and are the feds close to finding the remains of jimmy hoffa? they seem to have new leads. more on "power lunch" in two minutes time. >> wall street's closely guarded secret, the bond market. is revealed on interactive brokers trader work station. interact with live bond quotes, screen the universe of bond of your criteria, invest in them and borrow against them at less than 2%, trade them or make a market in them. interactive brokers, stocks, options, futures on world wide

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coming up on "street signs" at the top of this hour, we're seeing pictures of violence erupting in many an emerging market recently. you've got brazil, indonesia, turkey. the question here is whether or not it's just teething pains or something bigger which could give developed economies like ours cause for worry. also, it's back. the 10% down payment without the backing of a government guarantee. does this concern us? and our guest says the whole

thing about women and unequal pay, guess what, it's just a myth and is here to make her case. all those things and much more coming up at the top of the hour on "street signs." back to you now at "power lunch." >> thanks very much. death and destruction in india. the death toll from flooding and landslides in the northern part of the country has now risen to 70. at least 45 people have died in the worst hit area or state. over 150 buildings have been damaged, and at least one was washed away. some 75,000 pilgrims on their way to shrines in the region have been stranded over there. many people living near the swollen rivers have been moved to relief camps. look at those images. my goodness. >> very unfortunate to say the least. it's a 38-year-old mystery that might be close to being solved. authorities have been searching a michigan field look for the remains of jimmy hoffa. hoffa was last cbs outside a detroit-area restaurant in 1975, lured away, some say, by two mob figures. tony zarella, son of the detroit

mob boss and self-proclaimed friend of hoffa telling nbc news that hoffa as taken to a barn, buried alive and covered with cement in the oakland township field. they are continuing to dig. we'll keep you posted. a stunt double for angelina jolie is news news corp. saying british newspapers hacked her phone, the first lawsuit in the u.s. against the company since a hack scandal erupted in england two years ago. reporters from "the sun" and "news of the world" hacked her phone while she was working for miss jolie on location in los angeles. no comment from news corp. the stock probably unrelated is up almost 2.25% today. ty in. >> some call it the new peanut butter. jane wells live in l.a. to tell us about it. jane? >> reporter: tyler, hummus is hot, or at least a joint venture with pepsi hopes you'll agree. should peanut butter be scared? not sure this goes with jelly. we'll explain after the break. a better life for your family,

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pepsi is hoping hummus will bring in a healthier bottom line. jane wells has the story in l.a. hi, jane. >> reporter: tyler, could hummus be the next peanut butter or ketchup? the ceo of the dominant player in the category hopes so though he's got his hands full

literally trying to figure out how to grow quickly enough to meet demand. >> keeping it simple and doing it in a big and large quantity. this is very challenging. this is the reason that we have a lot of engineers here. >> reporter: he runs sabra, a 50-50 split between the company and pepsico. they have half the market share well ahead of afinos and so products have gone into an r & d lab in virginia to figure out the best chickpeas and what flavors americans like, jalapeno, a sackrelig to purists. >> all the products that they have something like 60%, and for

our point there's no reason that hummus, there's no replacement to this kind of product, so we're trying today to arrive at the 80, 70, still have a huge opportunity. >> take that, greek yogurt. so what does this have to do with tobacco and why are some lebanese angry? sue and tyler, that angle next hour on "street signs." >> look forward to it very much, janie. appreciate it. after the break, niall still with us talking about why he wrote his new book and the dangers that reface in the coming years. that's in two minutes time. we're back in a moment. ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪ [ male announcer ] just when you thought you had experienced performance,

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. we're back on "power lunch." the markets have gained more strength, up 145 points on the trading session and back with niall ferguson. you are out with your new book and i'm fascinated by the reasons that you wrote t.wrote a number of books. i've read many of them, but this is called "the great degeneration." were had j it's a play on words, all the problems that lie in store for the next generation and generation of that. i have four kids ranging in age 19 down to 1 and i worry about their future, not from the

competition outside, because that's for real and the fiscal burdens that we've racked up that we'll have to contend with and worry how hard it would be if they decide to start a business, and the social mobility, that has to be a major concern in the united states. the american dream is about getting from the top to the bottom, and that really seems to be dying. >> ty? >> do you think your children will live better, and achieve more than you have or have greater opportunity to do so? >> you know, we used to be able to confidently answer that question with yes, but i have to say that i doubt it, and i think we all have to face the possibility that absent some really amazing technological breakthrough it's going for tougher for the next generation. they will be paying high taxes and the risk of unemployment is higher and the entitlements at the end of it all will be less. that's the reality. >> let's leave it on a brighter note, if you will. 15 seconds left. are you optimistic that we're

getting through the worst? >> i'm optimistic we can solve the problems. they are institutional an manmade and we can fix them but we haven't even begun. >> good lueck luck with the book, niall. >> thanks for some by. that does it for this edition of "power lunch." >> "street signs" begins right now. see you tomorrow. riots around the world getting worse and now hundreds of thousands if not millions taking to the streets of brazil. does all this though make america a more attractive place to invest, or is it a reason to take some of your profits and hit the road? will low rates keep running themselves? tomorrow the lowest rate decision comes down but you don't have to wait because we've got your exclusive all-american fed survey hot off the liesman presses. there you go, steve. plus, a female economist who says unequal pay for women is a myth, and get ready, america, ca