tv Fast Money CNBC June 25, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
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best levels of the afternoon. that will do it for "closing bell." thank you for being with me and i'll talk to you on google plus and twitter. have a fantastic night. i will see you from the aspen ideas festival. in the meantime, "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq markets, new york city's time square. brian kelly, kim, and michael. stocks getting a nice bounce as stocks are -- and treasuries. durable goods, case shriller and all boosting the bull. we ask tonight is good economic data finally good news for stocks as well. >> not necessarily. i don't think so, you can make the argument as the data gets better, the market will top.
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last week was an important week. yesterday, i said you will see a bounce up to 1615. i still believe that. that will be your moment of truth. do we blow through that 16 and a quart quarter level, i don't think we will. >> some say bernanke is the most dangerous guy in the world. he has said he will get out of the way. >> we're talking housing data better off historically low numbers. the employment data seems to be better, we're talking about numbers if you looked at it five years ago we should be do 400, 500,000 jobs. fair enough, i think the numbers are better in terms of what we're looking for. in terms of where we should be not nearly as good. >> is good news good news or good news bad news because it bolsters tapering early. >> good news is good news. at the end of the day, the fed won't run out of the burning building. the world doesn't really recover until pmis get better. right now all we have is high
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liquidity environment with low growth. if u.s. data is where they are and the payroll data getting ready to have serious volatility in these numbers and to the high side, this is where you start to get excited about growth. no. good data is good and i think we're adjusting how the fed does in emerging markets. >> you know what's going on in brazil and china. those are big growth engines. those countries are slowing down. doesn't that have impact on the u.s.? from where i sit as a global macro guy, i'm looking at a world slowing down not speeding up and you're looking at rates for the bad news not the good. >> the point for the u.s. is the u.s. isn't relying on exporting economy like china is. >> yields continue go up and choke off the recovery. >> that's a different story. >> you think 2.6, 2.7% will choke off recovery. >> if money starts flowing out of china on the margin, they
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won't buy as many treasuryius. then you have federal reserve buying as many treasuries, not 2.6, much higher yields over the next six months or? no. if that's what people are pricing in right now you shouldn't buy stocks. if you think the economy is getting better -- >> do you think strong data in the u.s. is good for stocks. the fed has an issue on their hands, something larry can talk about. china's issues how they exaggerate treasuries going up, i agree with that. >> i think good news is good news. i think there has been so much focus on tapering without looking at fundamental reasons why they would taper. the way we look at stocks is fundamental earnings. if the economy is improving it generally is a good thing. >> that's if you believe the tapering is happening because that good news is good news. >> the numbers are what they are
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but i think four years, five years removed the numbers we say are so good or so strong should be significantly better. they are at a point and i think the chinese are the best capitalists on the planet and doing everything right. i think tim would agree with that. for our market to grow higher we need them to grow by single and double digits. i think japan is still a very interesting place. i use that term extraordinarily loosely and europe will be a mess the next four or five years. >> funds are going out of the emerging markets and happenings because you're not seeing gdp growth. growth in mexico, 1.5. china crash landing mode, india is flat. you look at currencies they priced in, that's a different trade. this is where the flows are going. >> i don't see how that has no impact on the u.s. economy. we don't live in isolation. one thing we learned in 2008 we are completely globalized, completely connected. how does china crash landing not
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have an impact on the u.s. economy? >> you're preaching to the choir. the u.s. is an economy with lower accommodates, doesn't rely on an export market companies never better balance sheets. we're talking about the united states of merck here aamerica h think it's the tallest man in a small room. >> good way of putting that. b.k. talked about the notion of yields going up for a good reason versus a bad reason. what do you think it is? >> i think the answer is a bad reason. one of the things you should consider with the fed tapering action that hasn't been discussed as the deficit shrinks the fed had been purchasing net u.s. treasuries about a trillion bucks, about $85 billion a month. if the deficit goes down trying to keep that stable alone would suggest some tapering was warranted. look to karen's point, valuation
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of businesses over a cycle. you say they're cheap but that agenthat's because they're tapering in declining growth story but they're trading at 13, 14 times cyclicly adjusted earnings and that's bad news already and should be all right with us. as far as china is concerned, they have resources and reserves, not huge debts. if they need to invest in their own economy, they can. treasury yields going higher. how high can rates go right now? sn>> mohammad one of the larges bond managers with $2 trillion under management? . always great to speak with you. >> thank you. >> your fund is a flow out of treasuries. you're cfo, i believe, cio, chief operating officer excuse me. whether yield is compensating you for the risks you're taking,
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that is what you need to take into consideration right now. where do you see yields six months from now? 12 months from now? >> let me distinguish something you do really well between value and technicals. from a value perspective, that speaks to the economy, policy rates. from a value perspective, there is value in treasuries up to about 10 years now. from a technical perspective, that's where the uncertainty is. the market started from horrible technicals. what we saw is the minute volatility spikes, funds started selling. we sold complete compression in risk appetite on the street and outflows from bond funds. from a value perspective there's value here from the yield curve especially in the united states. >> it's karen. if you get this diametrically opposed data, which way weighs
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more heavily on you? what do you do? >> i loved your discussion, the group good news bad news is good news good news. the reason why today go news was good news because it came with something else. it came with indications out of china and indications out of the uk, speaking on behalf of the fed, that they want to talk back all this talk of tapering. china central bank came out and said, hey, guy, i won't be as hawkish as you heard me 24 hours before and the bank of england, mervin said the markets have misinterpreted what chairman bernanke said but that is why good news for the equity market is good news because it came of something else. >> we're talking about yields rising for the right reasons. you talked about china. try to see if you can be the referee here. are fields rising for the wrong reason? what if china can't buy as many
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treasuries and the fed pulls back and bull stops buying treasuries? the world you described is a disfunctional world, of fragmentation, if this were to occur i don't think is the case, if this were to occur, all risk assets would be threatened, right? so it's really important to restrictio recognize we are still in a very interconnected world. if you speak to the engines of growth disappearing, not just europe in recession but china and the rest of the emerging world goes negative, you're talking about a world in which equities get hit hard, credit gets hit hard and there's a debate what happens. that's not the world we see right now. we do see very different adjustments. fixed income has mostly reprized. equities are still out there. there's hope on the equity side growth will pick up. that's why growth is the key issue going forward to try and
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outperform the outcome of equity. if growth doesn't go through, equity will be repriced like fixed income. >> how about dysfunction talking about policy? one of the great terms people use in the markets is when policy markets stop pan kicking, the other starts panicking. as they have intended to be, do you think they have given it a lot of tough love in the past week? >> a couple things. i think the fed realizes they have this equation as bernanke said about the benefits, costs and risks. the longer they stay unconventional the deeper they venture with these experimental policies the more the coasts and risks start becoming large relative to the benefits. that, they know, they've been talking about it. a second interesting issue, are they giving us too much guidance. imagine the amount of guidance we've gotten. we have an unemployment rate of
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7, 6 1/2, a date this year, a date next year. when you give so much guidance to the market, you risk ov overdetermining. what happens? people jump to the terminal values, don't wait for the journey and go immediately to the destination and reprice and the technicals kick in. to some extent, that is what happened last week especially after the press conference. >> mohamed, we will leave it there, we appreciate your help as always, of pimco. remember the days of hawkins we never heard from anybody except the semiannual address? >> we should go back to that. startling, in a lot of ways they have become rock stars. i don't think we should be able to identify these people as easily as we can. >> mr. evans yesterday tried to do some lifting for mr. bernanke. we know about the despaisparate voiceses within the fed and moha
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mr moh mohamed put it in context. >> what's your trade? >> you stay short. he talked about the fragmented disfunctional world. it's not that far and doesn't take that much for markets to dislocate. for now, doesn't look like the u.s. equity markets are going down. i'd stay short. >> you have to stay long in the dollar. you have much more hawkish policy or long, dollar is down. aerovironment, up. and apollo, slightly below previous expectations. down 3.5%. bouncing back from monday's loss and marissa mayer on a
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conference call for the first time. and getting strong data for the homeowners, but is today's bounce just short term in nature? tom joins us live, next. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 hours can go by before i realize tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that i haven't even looked away from my screen. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 ♪ tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that kind of focus... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that's what i have when i trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 ♪ tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform tdd# 1-800-345-2550 from charles schwab helps me keep an eye tdd# 1-800-345-2550 on what's really important to me. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it's packed with tools that help me work my strategies, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 spot patterns and find opportunities more easily. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 then, when i'm ready... act decisively. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and trade on any computer. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 with the exact same tools, the exact same way. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and the reality is, with schwab mobile, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else.
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got some breaking news. herb is back at hq with the latest. intuitive surgical that makes a robot has been cited by the food & drug administration for trying to correct problems without first alerting regulators in writing. this is called a 483 letter intuitive had 134 complaints from january 2010 to december 2011 regarding tip cover and arcing problems. this is something we discussed in ourvinci debate. the fda is making we did not report we sent the letter but say we documented it as a non-report ib non-reportable field action to the fda because it did not change any of the fda clear
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labeling and they're working closely with the fda and sort of urged me not to make too much of this but it is out there. it is something that actually the fda investigator from april to may of this year, worth bringing to your attention, melissa, back to you. >> thank you, herb greenberg. looks like isg is down $7 in the after session. >> let's call it 493. this was a 585 stock. if you need to trade this thing and not saying you have to go plowing in here. you can trade this stock against this 475 low we made a couple times in march and may. i'm surprised, given what herb said, it's not down more. you think intuitive surgical a huge valuation, has to be a monster short interest, maybe not. maybe some people try to get on the back on the short side and maybe push it down. every time it pushed violently. risk reward around 475 might be interesting. >> let's move on to hit our top
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three trades. xlf ending just under 2% today. karen. >> i think it was a bit of a turnaround frwhere it got crush. when they report three weeks from now, i still like the names ba bank of america and jpmorgan. >> yahoo! had its biggest gain in four months and marissa mayer making her debut at the helm. >> they're trying to do something. yesterday looked like a disaster. it's held 23 again. that's what you trade it against, 23 bucks. i'm still in the yahoo! ball camp, think it makes a push towards 28 bucks. >> coming in far above the street expectations, 70% jump in orders. >> the price has them worried. we were up 4 or 5% in the
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premarket. what more do you want from a home builder, great durable goods. blew away numbers. orders going higher. how come they can't trade higher? to me, it's very concerninging. i would watch lennar and if it can't hold i bet the rest of the market gets weaker. now homes at the highest level and jumped the most in seven years in the month of april. let's talk to city global's head of real estate. thanks for coming by. we've gotten a lot of good data from the government and private organizations and home builders. this is overstating the recovery at this point? >> i happen to think people are coming away from this data today, being much more invested in a strong housing recovery. i'm not sure all the data support it yet. it's very early on. remember, we've had a supply
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constrained market for the last few years. people have postponed, putting their houses on the market because they were either under water or thought they were gain if they kept it off the market. we've had almost no new construction in real terms up until recently. we've had the creation of a new investor institutional class buying tens of thousands of homes to turn into rentals. the combination of all of those has put supply constraints on the market that didn't previously exist. when you have constrained supply, you would expect any given level of demand for prices to ultimately recovery, and we've had a pretty good mortgage market. >> right. >> right? record low interest rates. i think this is great news and does show an inflection point but still fragile. >> whenever we see a mortgage spike you see home buyers go
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off. i think 2.75 translates to about a 5.7 mortgage rate. >> i don't know there's a tipping point because there's a function what the price point on the house is. the two of them together and the mortgage level that determine affordability. i think we are quite ways away from having the interest rate itself become a negative on the housing market. >> the velocity the rates have moved, a percent in three weeks some people believe that will force anybody waiting on the sidelines to buy a house to buy a house. is there any validity to that? >> that's consumer psychology, right? it will cost me a higher interest rate if i don't do it now, the price of the house will go up if i don't do it now. it may beage se agccelerating s demand that should be further out and i think it should be
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accessed. and your previous guest said the data is good and what really made a difference today was what the central banks in china and england said and goes back to the fact that this market is still elevated almost for artificial reasons because of the liquidity and how do you separate that for fundamental. >> for citi, is it hard to find values out there? there's a huge flood of money going into buying single family homes from private equity and private funds. where do you find yourselves right now? >> we've been very very active investors not just in single family mortgage market but commercial market lending to businesses. as a lender you have to remember your up side is getting your money back. you have to look at the way things might not work out as well as the way they could work out. i think ourselves, our peers,
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we've all been more aggressive in this low interest rate environment. but we're getting to the point where the underwriting standards are at risk of beginning to fray a bit. >> fray meaning what? fray meaning what? >> fray meaning, okay, we used to say we wouldn't loan more than 65% on an office building, maybe we will lend 67%. we used to say 30% amortization, maybe we'll do interest only. where values are today, those underwritings sort of easements aren't as risky as they were five years ago when you had peak valuations and lending at peak leverage levels. it feels like if the market is in the fifth inning, the underwriting is in the seventh inning. >> give us an estimate where you find the best values at this point? >> i would say the best values at this point are in the very best cities.
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there's only two or three ci cities -- >> does that apply to residential and commercial? >> yeah. there's only one place in the united states you can induce a russian billionaire to pay $800 a foot. that's in this town. >> not in moscow. >> definitely not in moscow. the coastal 24 hour cities why we love living here and those are the best value because the demand is perpetual. >> tom, thanks for coming by. >> i think that's amazing because property values certainly in places where i live well through taking it i get a little worried about the institutional bid and there's not a broader bid. ultimately these are guys selling in a liquid market if there is a spike and the real buyer is having affordability issues. i think home building is expensive and that is what i would be selling. >> home depot.
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>> hasn't traded recently. 75 or so. in my opinion the way the home market sets up, leads to everything home depot does. home rentals, that is still intact. the stock is showing some, for lack of a better word, stretch marks here at 75. like that? >> i didn't think that was where you were going. >> i guess you have some referen references. still ahead, trading stocks in 2013, after the break, an analyst gives you his playbook on streaming names up more than 130% and getting a little too frothy and too intense. and how to play it. coach catching heat after being downgraded. this as the handbag maker expands its men's line and reaching international markets. why is our own tim seymour saying steer clear? a street fight luxury style next
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>> hi. let me walk you through smith & wesson's latest numbers. the bottom line was inline 44 cents, top line saw a slight beat coming in at $799 million. guidance for the first quarter exceeding expectations and there was demand for its firearms. while the guidance was good wasn't necessarily great and could be what sends the stock bouncing around. up just a hair right now. >> thank you. i'm looking at these stats for hdsd and surprised it was short. >> you thought it would be more-or-less? >> less. >> there's not just firearm, homeland security. a lot of things going on with smith & wesson actually pretty good. she didn't mention margins, gross margins better than expected. i'm surprised given the guidance the stock is only up as much as it is which is nothing. it had a decent day today. i still think this is a stock
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you want to own here. >> we're nearly halfway through the calendar. all week on "fast money" we are profiling the hottest stocks so far in 2013 with analysts at the top of their games. today's stock is netflix, more than doubled this year. andy has a price target of $230 on the stock. always great to speak with you. >> thanks for having me again. >> you recently have raised your domestic streaming subs based on the latest quarter and the exact reason why the stock got a downgrade from your counterpart today. how are you viewing the streaming subs and how you get to the valuation netflix has right now? >> yeah. i mean, that's what it all comes down to, how many subs it will have and what they can charge for those people. how we get there, we're assuming they get relatively close to $50 million at a peak number.
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we're at a peak of about 10 bucks. a little bit lower numbers internationally is what we used. those aren't insignificant numbers. you have to be really confident in the service and really confident in the lead that they have to get there. unfortunately, we are. >> what are some of the levers, inputs into that model getting into that number. i don't mean to bring bernstein so much but it was in today's news and took the stock down and said no matter what levers you have, they cannot physiquely get to -- physically get to $50 million, a snowball's chance of getting there. >> the reality is we will both be wrong and not exactly what either of us think. how we get there is a few things. one, certainly is unprecedented territory for premium service to get there. the reality is there's been no premium service $8 a month that has the breadth and quality of
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content netflix has. there hasn't been a service that has device distribution netflix has and people watch an hour and a half a day. you look at those numbers, pretty unbelievable, quite frankly. we think the addressable market for that type of service is really really big. $50 million is a guess. is it 50? 60? 70? none of us know but i think it's a heck of a lot better than any premium service has gotten to, to date. >> andy, we'll leave it there. thank you. obviously, a lot of strong feelings on this stock. where do you stand? >> i'm not a buyer on netflix. there's very low barriers to entry. they're beholden to the content producer, a name i can't get behind. i'm not a buyer of their product. >> you watch tv as it's happening. >> i don't have a dvr, don't do streaming. i embrace the randomness of life.
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>> what i do embrace they have done they beefed up the children's catalog and anybody who knows kids know there's loyalty there. the children's catalog is something i think it pays dividends. how much they pay for content is everybody's problem. i don't touch it at the 180 levels. >> it's expensive. that's everybody's problem, content. content prices going up but tells you more competitors in the market, which makes -- i don't know how fast the pie is growing but i have to think this competition isn't great for 24e78. >> buyer or seller? >> at this level, you have to -- if you're forcing me, i'm buying it. reed hastings had a misstep - misstep -- look at you, weaving it all together. they've done everything right since that misstep. i understand valuation is stupid but valuation has been stupid a long time in the stock. big short interest, you mentioned short interest before. netflix, where is it, $214? i'm buying it here.
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>> mike, what do you see? >> the options market is a little more pessimistic about netflix prospects from this value going forward. it was trading about $11 and expire in $25, making bets the opening buyers subscribe to the idea netflix is going to be down 7 plus percent over the next three weeks. when valuations are this high, the up side becomes more limited and down side more pronounced and i would definitely not be a buyer. up next, tim and karen, battling it out over handbags and shoes and coats. why do they say there might be a better bet? stick around. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ]
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director. is the executive change enough to boost the luxury retailer? let's get to today's street fight. karen is the bull and brian the bear. ladies first, karen. >> coach, you all know the name. that's one of the reasons i like the name. it is an enduring brand. they may have had ups and downs but that name is incredibly valuable. always a value girl. i look at the relatively cheap one and where is it now, the last thing i like about it is the balance sheet is in absolutely pristine shape. i would not bet against this name right here. >> the reason it's trading at this discount because this is a company past its peak here. 28% of the woman's handbags in the united states but same-store sales slipping. it needs china.
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unless they find the men's segment. they need to get in men's and outer wear and footwear and become a lifestyle brand. i think they will probably get there. this is on the margin, a company growing much slower than mich l michael, but really underperformed the s&p and retail space by 20% the last year. that's because they're not growing, slipping in their core market, need to become a lifestyle brand. their creative director just resigned and brought in new management at a time they need to recreate their brand, not a company to own. >> how do you determine value versus a slow growth company that deserve as valuation? >> i'm not subscribing to it's a slow growth, slower, still growing. >> growing at 5% versus 15, 16% for the peers and why it's priced the way it is. >> a great argument.
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>> i'm a chanel guy, number one. let's clarify it. >> like the quilted -- the quilted -- the real thing? interesting. >> i think, to taren's point. 13 times forward earnings isn't expensive. it held 50 a couple times and bounced and sets up for a trade. i understand timmy. coach at these levels is a buy. >> what do you say? >> i don't stocks that price in good news and some bad news. this is trading cheaper than the market and with karen and like it. >> i got a lot of trash e-mail from timmy today. take off your tie! >> this company's best days at least are behind them. i'm sneaking this in. she started this! she started it! >> gavel is coming down. tweet us or use our harshtags, e
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have the info. will buoying down -- buying down in the long term payoff? >> ranked eed in the top 100 wos list. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> you said one should buy in the dip here. i'm curious. why right now. were you saying to buy the dis s since the market's high this year? >> absolutely yes. many things, still, the peo ratios are quite reasonable. for those clients who want to get a 3-5% discount on the prices, it was a perfect time yesterday, the day before. >> so you actually went out to clients and you said yesterday and the day before to buy specifically. what areas of the market do you find value in? >> the big blue chip companies. and actually, i didn't go out to
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the clients, clients were calling and e-mailing the office. there was an appetite to get discounts and flush out the port foefl. >> what are classes you advise everybody. they think stocks and accommodates, obvious stuff but where are great values maybe being overlooked right now? >> basically, a number of the companies in the mid and small cap arena. there's not a lot of attention being paid to them. in addition to that, although the emerging markets have been hit hard, the global international funds are terrific, in that there, you have the international expertise but they're letting in the u.s. companies that are doing well with large international diversification. >> susan, we will leave it there. thanks so much for your time. susan kaplan of kaplan financial
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services ranked number one by baron's as a woman financial advisor. the developer's conference build tomorrow? find out. our own jane wells is fishing in the field of genetically modified seeds. jane, what are you doing? >> reporter: folks, nearly all food comes from animals genetically fed and the backlash. and earnings, speaking out after the break. ron: i'm never alone with scottrade. i can always call or stop by my local office. they're nearby and ready to help. so when i have questions, i can talk to someone who knows exactly how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. that's why i'm with scottrade. announcer: scottrade- proud to be ranked "best overall client experience."
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let's fast forward and hit our top three trades for tomorrow. first up, bed bath and beyond. up more than 7% the past three months. what are investors going to be watching? >> housing play and the stock has been a monster this year, traded to the 68 level. this 72 level scares me. you have double tops in place. to me, it's a no touch. as counter intuitive as it sounds, long it above 72 1/2, if it gets there, otherwise, stay away. >> next up, technology.
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microsoft host its builder conference tomorrow and changes to the windows 8 operating system. this is the first time it's holding a conference in silicon valley in years. >> interesting. microsoft seems to do every now and again something to catch up with the technology companies that actually generate some buzz but they usually fall down when they attempt to do that. i kind of expect this will be a little different than the previous occasions. the stock was extremely cheap early in the year and rallied up to 12 1/2 times earnings, not much growth. safe money but probably fairly dead money, too. >> monsanto reporting earnings tomorrow morning as it faces new concerns about genetically modified seized. cnbc jane wells is live in woodland, california as to the impact on these big seed giants? >> reporter: hi. china approved a new monsanto seed. big business but the headlines against gmr are so negative
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scientists feel they have to speak out. >> you can see how the leaves are beginning to burn. >> reporter: rene, a pioneerist is testing two drought tolerant types and says it takes years to get approval. she calls them planet saving using less land and water. >> i have to admit i am surprised because i as a consumer are much more worried about excessive use of pesticides, excessive use of fresh water. those, to me, are greater environmental concerns and health concerns around agricultural than are gm o's. >> it's time for a new fresh conversation around that balancing act between the demand for food and the tools and technologies that we use to meet that demand. >> that's rob fraley of monsanto. he just won the world food prize for his work on the seeds.
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and gmo wheat which showed up in oregon out of nowhere to him seems awfully suspicious but most farmers love gmo seeds because they increase yield and still growing corn but with modified tomatoes. >> we use chemicals that aren't as harsher on the environment and people we use softer and more stable stuff. >> if gmo becomes the law of the land and can't sell his corn he will probably go back to conventional corn in spring. over 60 countries mandate labeling of gmo products and some states are trying to do that. california in an initiative to do that failed. >> jane wells in woodland, california. >> of course, china will allow this and brazil is coming around. a genetically modified seed is very good if you have issues of reporting your people.
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161 is expected. i'd buy this stock, beat 9 out of 10 quarters. around 105 bucks is where you begin to add to a position. this is a stock that will perform here, a stock i sold potash last week to buy. i'd buy more. >> still ahead, guy's favorite part of the show. >> i love this part. >> you tweet it we trade it. your questions after this break. not so fast, hashtag. [ male announcer ] we've been conditioned
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now, not so fast, tim. take a listen. >> cliff's had a tough week. iron ore had a tough week in the bear market. china's production gone through the roof. prices have come down. cliff has been beaten. this stock has seen its worth, 20 1/2 bucks, i would stay in this one. >> it got worse, down 22% since then. >> it got a lot worse. unlike other accommodates like oil and aluminum and nickel,
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iron ore supply is getting worse and worse and the issue when demand is coming down. these guys' balance sheet doesn't concern me. cliffs is not a name i'm selling on, a name i'm taking a lot of heat on and will continue to hold. >> let's get to the theyrades today. for gee. will home depot hammer down or ladder up from here. >> i like that from tom grande. >> nice mr. grande. >> you don't have any catalysts until probably july at best. i think you trade it against the 73 stop. we had downs and moves like this. each time it's been a reason to buy it. i think you're in another reason to buy it. below 73 you pull the rip cord and fight again another day. >> this from karen. short amazon going into earnings. priced high versus sales growth? >> amazon is just in the stratosphere. it has been for quite some time. great great company.
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i would be concerned about the margins continuing to get nar w narrower. that's a problem. however, this stock just defies any logic, valuation, reasoning, gravity. i couldn't be short but i definitely couldn't be long. >> beakers. >> that's for me. >> for the short term, at what s&p level will you lay out shorts aggressively? >> just about right here. i didn't think the price action today. >> backing out. gets hot out there, though. >> not today. it's hot out there. in the markets, it's not so hot. it's been a good month to be a bear. i think you can lay out spy shorts right here. maybe we get up to 16.10 in the quarter end. -- 1610 in the quarter end and maybe up to jumpy trade iing bu would sell them all here. >> what about earnings, can they go higher? >> not expecting a lot. the options market is expecting
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volatility, a 10% move versus 9%. >> thousand traders versus 50,000 points. that's the only way i'd trade. >> what about the out thoughts on ford and when auto replacement cycle arrives? >> you give it another day, you can probably buy this weakness. >> all right. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] when gloria and her financial advisor made a retirement plan, they considered all her assets, even those held elsewhere, giving her the confidence to pursue all her goals. when you want a financial advisor
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vo: i've always thought the best part about this country is that we get to create our future. you get to take ownership of the choices you make. the person you become. i've been around long enough to recognize the people who are out there owning it. the ones getting involved and staying engaged. they're not sitting by as their life unfolds. and they're not afraid to question the path they're on.
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because the one question they never want to ask is "how did i end up here?" i started schwab for those people. people who want to take ownership of their investments, like they do in every other aspect of their lives. who is the winner of our street fight on coach tonight? tim seymour has the victory for this evening. let's go to the final trade here. all the way around the horn. mike. >> in indonesia, free port's largest has reopened. maybe that spells the bottom. >> if you think rates are going up for the wrong reasons and like bk, sell right here. >> ta #winning. >> monsanto surprise, the stock
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tomorrow. >> carol. >> i like google. it stalled a little bit and coming in quite a bit. i like it here. >> barnes & noble, down 17%. buy this and trade i. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's also somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. i'm cramer. if you want to make friends, my job is not just to entertain you but educate you, so call me. what does a bull in this market need to see? what set of circumstances would allow stocks to climb higher not
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