collect and trial all these different flavors, 16 flavors, i believe in front of us. in the meantime, we've got the dow which is down by 55 points, part of that, of course, due to ibm being the biggest loser on the dow. we manage to pull right off the lows of the day. we've got one more hour in the trading day. "closing bell" is next. have a great weekend. see you monday. ♪ yes, indeed, welcome to a special edition of "closing bell," we are one hour away from being half way there. >> i see what they did there. >> you like that? little symmetry there, as in one hour to go before the first half of this trading year is over. >> i'm kayla tausche, maria bartiromo back in the chair on monday. she'll have an interview with former disney ceo.

a special edition today, we're retrospective and prospective and how you should move your money in the second half of the year. >> in the final 60 minutes or not of the month, the quarter, the first half of the year, what's been a remarkable year so far for the stock market defining expectations. i mean, this has been an unloved rally for the most part. >> but still undeniable numbers, up 15%, the last time we saw numbers like that double digit gains 2003. >> the '90s would be another comparable period of time. and everybody loved the stock market at that time. >> everybody did, but the valuations there were much higher that's why people said there was some reason to run here. >> we'll see what happens next hour as we wrap up the day long with the first half of the year. we look ahead, what will the rest of the year bring. higher or lower from these levels by december 31st. what are the best names to own between now and then. we have a cast of money professionals with skin in this game giving us their best ideas

over the next two hours. don't go anywhere. in the markets right now, we have the dow off of its lows of the day but just down about 56 points with an hour to go in trading. the nasdaq is down about 10 points, the s&p down just shy of one point. we do have the dow which is still below the 15,000 level. i know a lot of traders were watching it to possibly pierce that level as we go into the end of the month. >> today's weakness the dow and s&p are on pace with their best first half of the year since the late '90s as we were discussing. josh lipton breaks down the numbers. >> let's get a sense of where we stand month to date. in fact, your major indices are lower. the dow is set to break a six-month win streak. the nasdaq is set to break a 7-month win streak and the spx, the benchmark gauge also on track to break a seven-month win streak. if you broaden it out, talk about year-to-date, the s&p 500, best start to the year since

1998. the dow as you guys were mentioning, best start to the year since 1999. now let's look at the s&p 500 do a little compare and contrast. it's up double digits, compare that to the veu, that's all world xus, bonds, commodities e emerging markets. >> we'll be checking back with you in an hour. we have a panel of experts to break down the past six months and tell you what to watch for in the next six months. in today's "closing bell" exchange, it's our own rick santelli, mark travis, joe grecko and jim lecamp from ubs. should we be up 15% this year? why does this market go up right now in this market environment? >> well, this market has gone up because there hasn't been any other place to put money and people recognize that corporations have leaner, cleaner, meaner balance sheets than governments do. and a lot of it becomes just momentum.

you've seen earnings start to slow down a little bit and revenue start to slow down, but you've had a lot of momentum in this market. now with bonds going up, we might have a different dynamic for the next three months, certainly until the fed meets, i think we're going to see more volatility moving forward, but in the long run, stocks are still going to be a more attr t attractive asset class than other liquid investments. >> mark, the number that everyone was watching for on the ten-year treasury was that yield at 2.5%. what do you see for the second half of the year? i know everyone expects it to be choppy in the bond market, but do you have a point you're looking for in the ten-year? >> well, kayla, i think that, you know, we've put on a lot since last thursday and the fed announcement. i think we went from 221 to 262 almost instantaneously. and we backed off in the last day or two. and the equity markets rallied. you know, i think the challenge for the federal government, frankly, and even the fed, our government can't afford higher interest rates. so, you know, i think that, you

know, we may drift up toward 3.5% over the next year, but that's going to be a head wind for the equity market and hopefully provide entry points as volatility spikes when the rates come up. >> if we go to 3% on the ten year, what is the stock market going to do? >> looks like the market may continue to go up, but i think we get a different story come monday. we started the day where bad news was actually bad for the market, you know, pmi leaked perhaps a little early, market sold off and we recovered. with it being a thin attendance in the equity market at least, i think it's a little bit of window dressing and optimism going into the end of the half as you called it earlier. >> you don't think this market is responding as kayla suggested earlier to that ten-year that anything above 2.5% is competition for stocks and go lower, anything below and stocks go higher? >> that could very well be the case here. we've seen it play out. but two months ago, we were well below 2%.

i'd like to see how it plays out over the summer. >> that's not the problem. the problem is going to be -- these higher interest rates are going to be going up in the absence of economic improvement. that's the problem. we've not seen good economic numbers. and if you see treasury yield go up in spite of bad economic numbers. in fact, really disinflationary numbers, it suggests the fed's lost control of interest rates and i think that's what everybody's worried about. >> well, rick, i want to get you in here too. we're watching what the fed is going to do. seems every fed president is coming out to try to calm the markets and stabilize some of the messages that have come out here and especially with that gdp number, it would seem that we're not done with qe yet and there's a little bit more juice for the equity market. >> you know, i know that qe and the fed are a popular topic, but i really think that what we can't lose sight of is the quarterly charts. a five-year at the end of last quarter was at 76 basis points, the ten-year at 185, that means both up basically 63 basis

points. but the irony is that in may, we started out at a lower yield than we closed the last quarter and still ended up here. so i do think that we have to pay attention to the issue that the markets can at times do whatever they want regardless of the fed, the actions the programs or the microphones. but i do think that there is enough weakness globally or the potential for ongoing europe, s&p has more downgrades for cypress and i agree with the guests that said a lot of this is occurring in an environment where there's slippage in major numbers. so friday, one week from today is going to be so key to see what some of those jobs figures come in at. >> that will be big. in the meantime, the market's setting lows for the day down 81 points. we have this periodic trade coming up at the close called the russell rebalance. describe for us what that is and what impact it'll have on the

close. >> at the end of june, they calibrate, some being added, some being removed from the indices. and all of those have to adjust accordingly. today that's the day that gets clocked at 4:00 p.m. people, of course, gaming that, anticipating huge imbalances to buy or sell on the close and that's why you see some outsized volume in certain names but really nothing going on and no volatility in other names. i think there's a few names out there, you've got to pick them apart and unfortunately at this hour, it may be a little bit late if you haven't done your homework. >> how choppy do you expect the market to be over the summer? the volume could pick up over the end of the trade today. given the thinness of the trade. >> it definitely could. and what we've seen lately is that a lot of times asset classes don't move in correlation. they move all together. which means you don't have that relationship you normally would with the bond market or the currencies.

and that's because things are not really certain right now. i think you have one big calendar catalyst and that's going to be the middle of july when big ben sits in front of congress. you may get a few curve balls. headline and traders paying attention during the day are going to be able to capitalize on it. we could see a little turmoil in europe which seems to want to get involved and in september that's when the eyes will be focused to see whether or not we'll be seeing alternating pace to the asset purchase program. >> let me ask the two money managers, we're going to ask a lot of the guests what the investment idea is for the next six months. mark travis, you first. >> well, bill, i had to dig really deep to find a deep value contrarian pick. and in a market that's up 25% year-over-year, i came up with numont mining. the way i look at it, it's a discounted dollar, a way to own a gold bond. you've got proven reserves and you get paid to wait at 5% on a

dividend rate. the payout rate is 30%. and it's a terribly unloved idea at this point. but i think regression of the mean will take over at some point. >> unloved is for sure in that camp. jim lecamp. >> they're the only group that's going to benefit as much from the spread and interest rate changes. now that the treasury's going up, they're going to be able to capture those spreads. they haven't had as much access to the really cheap money as the big money center banks. now it's their time and i think the local and regional banks are going to do very well. you can buy the etf, kre or pick your individual names, this is a group i'm focusing on as well as big cap technology. >> all right. thank you, gentlemen, have a good weekend. good fourth of july. >> thank you. >> see you later. we've seen an up and down june, it's set to be the first negative month in the year of 2013 so far. but overall stocks surging during the first half, gold another story, it's having one

of the worst runs in history. sharon epperson with all the details. >> the big question this week has been is this 12-year bull run we've seen for gold come to a close considering the fact that gold prices are down some 27% so far this year and the last three months down 23%. the bulk of the slide we've seen in this quarter has come in the past two weeks since the last fed meeting and with all of the chatter over tapering and when quantitative easing will start to slow down. that is something that really has had an impact on the gold market. traders are watching that very carefully. they're also paying attention to some of the technical levels, the fact that we saw gold prices overnight go below 1,200 an ounce, dropped below 1,180 an ounce. that's something traders say is significant and if the selling continues, we could see 1,155 as the key technical level to watch. others are saying the fact that gold closed out the day and the month and the quarter above the 1,200 level is perhaps a sign

we've bottomed after the tremendous downturn that we saw for the week back to you. >> thanks, sharon. see you later. 50 minutes left in the first half of this year and before the bell rings today, the dow was down 145 on the open this morning, it's coming back, but down 80 points. we're watching the ipo market, noodles & company today nearly doubling in the first trade. that market caught fire in the first half of the year, but what will the second half look like? we'll get the ipo outlook after the break. plus, find out how fortune 500 companies are getting a piece of the ipo action and how you can cash in too. then, it may be the stock story near and dear to my heart. many of us around here, blackberry, coming up, what the heck is happening over that stock cratering today. and that's not all, after the bell, we'll be joined by a panel of expert financial advisers to help you prepare for the second half of the year. we're about to be done with the first half of 2013.

tweet your best questions, we'll get you the answers possibly even on air. much more coming up in the most important hour of the trading day, so stick with us. everybody has different investment objectives, ideas, goals, appetite for risk. you can't say 'one size fits all'. it doesn't. that's crazy. we're all totally different. ishares core. etf building blocks for your personalized portfolio. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus, which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal.

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welcome back to "closing bell." stocks may have had an up and down month of june, closing out an historic first half of the market. the big winners and losers so far this year. >> yeah, kayla, last day of the quarter, last day of the first half. year-to-date, your leaders and your laggards. let's start off with the sectors in the s&p 500. your leaders, health care, consumer discretionary and those financials, tech and materials your laggards. specific stocks, here's your leaders. best buy, netflix, micron, hewlett-packard and game stop, clf, peabody, u.s. steel, letter x. >> as we know investing in start-ups is not just for venture capitalists anymore. some of the largest companies are trying to get a piece of that action, as well. julia boorstin with details on that. >> reporter: bill, since may, three major corporate vcs have

launched, ge, microsoft and bloomberg, more than 750 companies had corporate vc units. the numbers have grown since then. now the first quarter, corporate vcs were involved in 17% of all deals contributing nearly 8% of all vc dollars according to price water house coopers. now, many corporate vc arms like city banks, cnbc's parent comcast and microsoft, looked to invest in innovators in their space to form strategic alliances. while others like google's venture, targets from their assets. >> during the last three months, april, may and june, we've had our top ten selling days at the center on ebay and three of those occurred this week. so we know that there's tremendous demand coming out of the united states public looking for physical gold and silver.

>> that was -- i believe that was the wrong sound bite there. so google ventures said to us they've got this giant corporation and all of these resources that can be helpful to start-ups and vanessa colello says they're looking in the payment space for the fact they've invested in square. and they're looking for companies that will help them in the finance space or the corporate security in particular. now, as we see with city ventures, as technology infiltrates a very broad range of companies like finance. nike has a venture arm, we could see an even broader range of companies launch vc arms, back over to you. >> thank you very much, welcome to live television. no wonder big companies are making a play for new start-ups, the ipo market seems to be staging a comeback. 2013 could prove to be the best year for the ipo market since 2007. is that unbelievable? >> the first half has certainly been strong, helps a market that rises 15% too when you're going

public. but what makes the market so ripe to go public right now and which sectors deliver staying power. specializes in the ipo market and the chief operating offie i here at the new york stock exchange. when i talk to underwriters about the strength of the ipo market, it's not the number of deals or the amount of money raised, it's the fact that you have a window across all sectors, the fact that retailers and industrial companies that the window is open for all of them, cathy, are you seeing thi? >> actually the most important thing of all is the diversity, a little bit of a shift in growth, technology, and biotech ipos are doing quite well. i think there's a preference for that. but more important are the returns. if the returns are good, it opens the market for everyone. and that's not just the return on the first day closed. we need to see sustainable ipo aftermarket returns. and we measure those, we run a

mutual fund called the global ipo fund and that fund since the facebook ipo a year ago was up about 30%. so investors are making money and portfolios of newly public companies with a tilt we would say, toward the technology and biotech area right now. >> larry, so far this year, you guys here at the big board have done $28.5 billion in proceeds on 72 ipos, how does that rank? >> well, i think what you're seeing is roughly the number of deals in the first half is the same as the first half last year, but on average, the size is higher. now, remember that we were coming out of sort of post election hangover this year, so we started the year kind of slow, but it's really picked up in the second quarter. may was one of the busiest months in probably ten years. it's been really busy. and so i think depending on how the market hangs together, this could have follow through. >> one thing that companies look at when they're deciding, when boards are deciding to take a company public, one indicator is the vix.

how volatile is the company. the vix has been relatively low, what sort of role will that play in the second half of the year for the ipo market? >> what e we see is when vix is below 20, the market feels generally stable. it doesn't have to be up, it could be down companies feel more comfortable coming to the market. we've bounced off a low. we're in the 16 1/2 range, which is very comfortable now as long as we don't continue to head higher in the vix. >> over a year past the facebook debacle. have we learned anything? are there companies that didn't come public because of that? how did it change the ipo market, do you think? >> i think the main thing that the facebook ipo taught issuers was not to come to market at a price too high for investors. it made the statement that the market is about buyers who come in and own stocks, it's not about the last round of a company's valuation because facebook really came out and pushed it to be higher than

their private rounds which did not reflect market reality. >> through 2012, we saw almost half of the ipos that were priced, priced below the range. and even if you noted, actually today we have noodles which is up 100%, but take the day before where the five ipos that were priced were priced below the range and have traded up. the main thing is that companies and issuers have realized after the facebook ipo that we're not doing ipo pricing, we're going to price to have the deals trade up in the aftermarket. >> priced to sell? >> yeah, it's a great observation. and what you see is they're much more sensitive to market conditions that way. when things are going pretty well, they're conservative but they're pricing there and as soon as the market gets tough if they want to get out they've got to be conservative. >> how does it look for the second half of the year? >> our pipeline is replenishing as fast as things are in the

market. the market holds up, it's a strong second half. >> like you said, could be strongest since 2007. thank you, both. heading toward the close, 40 minutes left on the trading session here. we're going to get a lot of volume and volatility. the rest of rebalancing, don't need to worry about it right now. >> traders are expecting a surge of volume here in the last few minutes, but we've seen heavy volume in blackberry shares plummeting after missing earnings estimates, if the new z-10 or q-10 phones were make or break, is blackberry officially broken? that's a tough question. >> also, heading to the trading floors of the major exchanges to find out the hottest plays for the second half will be. and those folks will be naming names for us coming up. >> want to ask our panel of financial advisers your investment question. get your questions answered later on the program. (announcer) at scottrade, our clients trade and invest

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welcome back to cnbc, it's a black and blue friday for blackberry to close out the first half of the year, losing nearly a third of the value today. what's going on with this stock? >> well, kayla, a huge disappointment for wall street as many believed blackberry would post a solid quarter. instead, it posted a surprising operating loss. revenue of $3.1 billion was up

15% sequentially, europe, middle east and africa seeing a 9% jump. north america up 30%. latin america posted a decline due to a venezuelan foreign currency restriction. on the conference call, the ceo said blackberry is still in transition period and turn arounds take time. regardless of today's results, blackberry still has a tough road ahead. blackberry has less than 5% of the smartphone market share. but at the peak it was well worth above 35% or 45%. the reason for the drop, competition from the likes of apple as well as android run phones including samsung. william blair goes on to say that long-term viability is a concern. it's too early to pass judgment on blackberry. bill, do you have your q-10 yet? i want to know that. >> i don't. that's the problem. kayla's making fun of me right now. >> kayla, look at his case. >> he has two. >> i have two.

one more vintage than the other. i'm just waiting -- i haven't gotten around to it. and that's part of the problem too, people haven't gotten around to buying the new q-10 or z-10. >> the fact they didn't have the numbers out today. a lot of traders wanted to see how many people were buying them. >> i know you're hoarding a big box in your basement. >> somewhere, yes. some people are getting hurt by this decline in the stock of blackberry, aren't they? >> they are. se seema thanks so much for your report. i want to read this e-mail. government employee, he says i shop for the stars, i bought at 13.15, rode it crashing down to 10.50, not budging, waiting to see it rebound to $13. this is a big retail stock. people know the name, the company, may have the device, some people believe in it but there's obviously a market to be made. a lot of people on the other side of that trade today. >> a cult following. let's tell john whether it's time to finally buy more

blackber blackberry. is it a chance to sell it here? it's talking numbers on one of our favorite topics. on the technical side. the seaport group on the fundamentals side. welcome to both of you. abigail, how about this chart? should john buy more or not? >> blackberry is not for the faint of heart here. i think this is a buying opportunity for john and for other long-term investors. let me show you why. when we take a look at a long-term monthly chart, we see something that's going to shock a lot of investors and that's an up trend. over the long-term, buyers are in control. it's volatile, though, as shown by the ascending trend channel. shaping that uptrend are bullish falling wedges, the converging downward descending trend lines that start off with strong selling but eventually lead into exhausted selling. in 2002, 2003, that falling wedge turned into a bottling pattern which took the stock off

single digit volume. now we're in a similar situation, we're in a bottoming pattern that supports blackberry going to at least 40. again, for long-term investors, i think who can stomach volatility, i think that blackberry is attractive here. >> all right. you agree? >> not really. i mean, let's start with the bad news. the bad news was they miss versus wall street expectations on basically every metric in this quarter. they missed on subscriber numbers, the number of devices sold, they missed on operating earnings. the positive is this a cheap company. half of the market cap is in cash, its ebitda is 2 1/2 times. obviously there's a patent portfolio as well as potential takeout. but if we -- after this quarter, the concern, and this is a serious concern and the reason why i don't like the stock is what's the path forward for earnings if your most popular device you've been working on for the last six months can't sell.

and until they show any significant sales growth and this is probably the most important aspect, this is a very saturated market. the smartphone market as we know from apple, samsung and qualcomm has shown. >> it's probably too early to throw in the towel on the blackberry 10. i have heard how it's actually difficult to get ahold of the q-10. and while the last quarter was really pretty bad even horrific, i think that it really sets the table for a long-term bottling. the bar is so low now as the ceo said, turn arounds take time. and i think that now because the bar is low, we have the possibility of the subscribers finally coming off of the bottom. $72 million this quarter. and also they could go back into the black. they could be catalysts that could move shares higher. >> the main problem for me is that the smartphone market as a whole is showing signs of saturation. blackberry is trying to revive themselves in a market full of

wolves. >> i agree with you on that, but look at bill with his two blackberries, i'm waiting to get mine. >> what are we waiting for, abigail? that's the problem, that's what blackberry is asking us. get out and buy the thing. i need a real keyboard, that's all. thank you, both. good stuff. got to hope blackberry's there when we need them. >> i'm waiting for the q-10 too. shout out if you have any left over, i'm in line waiting for one. intel is outperforming every dow stock except home depot today. heard from the new ceo, john, we'll send it over to you. >> thanks, kayla. a very interesting, sat down with seven reporters. talked a lot about strategy. a number of interesting comments. one of the things he broke down. this is the biggest reorganization in ten years he

and james have undertaken in the first weeks. it used to be the business units reported up to what's called the intel architecture group. he said that was gumming up the works a bit. now the business units reports that should prevent the organization from protecting the pc legacy at the cost of growth in mobile. so that structure no longer in place. he also said that wearables are a huge opportunity. he believes an order of magnitude units wise bigger than tablets and smartphones. lower margin dollars per unit but there's so many of them he believes, google glass in backpack. there's going to be so many different types of wearables, it's a big margin opportunity. now he's telling the business units to move faster pushing wireless and graphics integration. they're making the smaller lower power mobile chip a first class citizen within intel giving it more resources because they

believe that's going to be the key to this wearables business. also, we talked about intel tv. that's the perhaps over the top service that's supposed to compete in the market. they were supposedly going to come out with a cable tv competitor. its breakthrough technology but he's not sure about the business model, intel's not a content specialist. unclear whether that's actually going to come to market and how last thing he was asked about arm chips. i asked about this, actually, and the foundry business making chips for others, could they perhaps make arm chips for apple at some point? he said for the right customer, they might actually make arm chips for that customer but their long-term goal is to get these folks to move over to intel's architecture, guys. >> thanks so much, john. it's interesting to see he's sort of backing away from the tv comments. that's what everyone's been talking about for the last few months. when is it coming? certainly interesting there. well, we have half an hour to go

before the close. dow down about 30 points, the s&p up about two points heading into the green right now and the nasdaq up by just about 19 points. >> the scouting report is still for tremendous volatility and a lot of volume on the close. >> we haven't seen that waterfall happen just yet. we have a couple of minutes to go there. >> the dow is closing out the best first half of the year since 1999. when we come back, couple of market historians tell us what first half performance can say about second half and how we may fair during the next six months. and don't forget to ask our panel of financial advisers your most pressing investment question for the second half of the year, could be gold, could be the ten-year, whatever you like, tweet us at cnbc "closing bell." tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ trader ] when i'm trading, i'm so into it,

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a market flash on what has been the stock of the day, hasn't it, courtney? >> it has been. we want to make the investors aware of what's going on with

shares of noodles & company today. this stock breaking through $39 for the first time. our data team tells me that no other ipos have doubled their performance in the first, they are doubled the open price in their first day of trading. on track here for the best ipo first day of the year. noodles, look at this, up 119%. bill, back to you. >> courtney, thank you very much. we're getting more fed speak. heard from a number of fed officials today. fed president williams was saying that reading the same party line basically that the feds quantitative easing program will last as long as the economy needs it and if we seen signs of recovery, they'll start to withdraw. >> it's too soon to say when that bond buying program should start slowing. this is pretty straight in line with how he has been thinking for a long time but he says the inflation target is what he's watching, still below that 2% target, it's just about 1%. that's the one he says he should be paying attention to.

>> that's one of the reasons the stock market is coming back right now. we've come well off the lows of the day but we've got another kind of cross currents. >> we are half way through the final hour of trade getting closer to closing at the first half of the year as we get ready to close the books on the first six months. we look back on what has been the best six months for the market since 1999, what does it mean for the next six months we want to know. >> we have some historical perspective we want to discuss and welcome editor in chief of the stock traders almanac and cnbc contributor, student of the markets is any loyal cnbc viewer would know. but, jeff, let's start with you. >> sure. >> we haven't seen a market perform like this since 1999, but the last time we saw double digit gains in the market was 2003. is there a data point that

predicts where we'll go from here. there's not many. >> over the years big first halves. it's positive as a year as a whole, but most of the gains get locked in the first half. not a whole lot more gains. we don't expect to double up. >> don't want to pig out. >> it's come a long way. people start taking profits and that's one of the reasons why we're looking for a little bit of pullback here. but again, with the fed in there, we don't expect anything major on the downside. >> we've talked often about how this has been one of the most unloved rallies we've ever seen in the market. >> finally in the first couple of months of 2013 investors started buying equities. you know, the seasonals might be a little different this year.

sell in may and go away. i suggest sell in june come back with the harvest moon. i think it might be difficult with the confusion around the fed's conversations about tapering. i think once we get through this period of uncertainty, the market's probably got some upside left for the year, but not quite yet. >> ron, you expected choppy summer, this would be the -- what the fourth annual summer swoon. seems there's a new reason every summer for the selloff be it volume, europe, the fed and a potential pullback. uh how far do you think it goes? >> each one of these declines we've seen in the summer has gotten smaller. four years ago it was about 7%, then it was 19% or 20%, last year was 9.9, this year so far, it's been seven. i think for people who want to get in or play the market, i would scale into the s&ps as

opposed to just jump back in. and i would have been scaling into zero coupon bonds for the last several weeks. they'll have big capital gains going into the fall. >> everyone talks about how well every summer there's a correction. here we have 52 of 72 country indices topping out about may 22nd. it remains to be seen if it's going to work, but here we are and that's part of the reason. >> because we didn't sell the first three weeks of may and we sold the last week. >> this is why we've shifted into a little bit, this fund that we started, we were using jordan kimmel's process, with the data rich, data driven analysis of the stock traders almanac and got sectors on the short side, we're looking for the worst scoring stocks there and the best scoring stocks there. so regardless of whether the whole market sells off in may or not, we're long and stock the right stocks at the right time. >> that's what traders do in

this market. gentlemen, thank you both. >> thank you. >> good to see you. >> you too. heading toward the close with about 17 minutes left on the trading session, down 43 points on the dow industrials. and up next, a trader double play, two of the major exchanges give us their predictions for the second half of the year. they get very specific. have a pen and paper. we'll hear from somebody who says this rising mortgage rate environment will actually help not hurt the red hot housing market through the rest of the year. a simple question: how old is the oldest person you've known? we gave people a sticker and had them show us. we learned a lot of us have known someone who's lived well into their 90s. and that's a great thing. but even though we're living longer, one thing that hasn't changed: the official retirement age. ♪ the question is how do you make sure you have the money you need to enjoy all of these years. ♪

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what's the number one play to bet on for the second half? we're asking money managers and traders all day today. their best play for the second half of the year, let's take it down to the trading floor right now, shall we? >> where else would we go? at the nymex alan harry from the fund. thanks so much for being with us. bob, we'll start with you, what's your best trade for the second half of the year? >> well, the same best trade for about the middle of this quarter. i want to be long the dollar and short yen. i think when you look at trades and investments, you have to start from a risk perspective. and i think the risk from the supply side of the u.s. dollar, in other words if the fed is

somehow going to go back on not only they said they would taper but that the tapering is the next step. they did leave the door open for new qe, but i don't think anyone really feels that's likely. if anything, the risk to the downside for the dollar especially versus the yen and euro, as well, those two regions are in a lot worse shape than us. they're going to have to continue to print. i think from a risk perspective, you've got really good upside on that one. >> long dollar, short yen. alan, second half, best play. >> i'm going to keep it simple and that is short crude oil. crude oil, every time it gets up to the 98 level, comes back off. i would be a scale in seller. so to make it simple, sell 97 1/2, gets up the next 50 cents, sell another batch at 98, 98 1/2 to $100. my stopout is 102. short crude oil. i think it's coming to $86. >> i love it when a trade comes together.

long dollar, short crude. you guys are in agreement. thanks, guys. >> completely in agreement. >> there you go. and interestingly, bob's at the cme, if you invested in financials, it would have been your best trade because that's where your interest rates cleared. meanwhile, right now we have just about ten minutes before the closing bell. the dow is down by just about 60 points. s&p right now is down by just about one point. >> a lot of stock to buy on the close i keep hearing. mike holland says he knows which sector will leave over the next six months, he plans to tell us what that is and which stock would be his top pick, as well. we also have a story in the auto sector, what will it take to keep driving higher in the second half of the year? phil lebeau will take a look. here's what to watch for in the auto sector in the quarter ahead. will the truck rally continue as the housing market has

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welcome back, just about ten minutes to go before the closing bell. the markets have performed well year-to-date so far. but not in june, what happens in the second half? with us now michael holland and david dars from morgan stanley. >> wow, pulled out the big guns this time, both times. >> we do. we've got to know where to go in the second half of the year. david, you've got an interesting idea in the technology space. >> kayla, we like apple. the stock has fallen. it's had a double bear market. the stock is down 44% from the 700 level. >> did you like it during that time? >> we liked it at times, but then when things started to get cloudy on the margin situation and the revenue situation, we pulled back. our analyst got a target, now, kayla, of 540 up 38%, why? number one, she thinks we're going to get a contract from ntt

and china mobile. china and japan. number two, you've got the iphone 5s and the low-priced iphone coming, itv next year and maybe iradio coming in with that. finally, sells for ten times earnings, yields 2.8% and number five, $60 billion stock buy back underway, kayla. >> right. >> the largest in corporate history. buying stock every day. >> here's the question, if you're long apple, do you short blackberry? yes or no? >> i would not touch shorting blackberry for fear of getting all of our friends at morgan stanley, bill griffith, my daughter mad at me, kayla, for shorting blackberry. >> yeah, she's just -- she likes to take the stick and poke it there. >> i'm brutal. >> we like this, bill. >> michael, i'm told you're going to tell us your favorite sector and favorite stock for the next year. >> well, it just became apple which i own. i always listen to david carefully. >> don't we all.

>> the market as we all know is up 14% year-to-date. a lot of people at the beginning of the year would have been happy -- more than happy if that were the case for the whole year. i think it's possible, bill, by the end of the year both the federal reserve in the u.s. and the people's bank of china will not have disappointed us as people continue to be worried about as you've seen in the market of the past few weeks. every time it looks as if the chinese or u.s. central banks are going to do something untorrunor the -- you talk about this as a young loved bull market that we have. if we got it right by the end of the year, it would be because both of them got it right and the financials would lead through the end of the year. you have companies like jpmorgan back to single digit multiples as david was talking about with apple and, again, a big fat yield. there's a theme here. great companies with single digit multiples and big fat yields. >> very good.

apple, jpmorgan chase. >> and i'm a big fan of michael holland. happy birthday usa next week and president obama i hope he gets to meet nelson mandela. i wish him all the best. >> i thought you were saying happy birthday to me, david, anyhow. >> my birthday's july 17th. >> congratulations. >> see you later. >> we'll come back with the closing countdown and try to bring order to this in a moment. should you reposition your retirement portfolio or stick to your guns as we stick to the second half of the year. two retirement experts weighing in on important topics. >> and a panel of financial advisers. you got a question, tweet us @cnbcclosingbell. ♪

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now you can get all the online trading tools you need without any surprise fees. ♪ it's not rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. we've got a minute left here. what is happening right now? what is taking place? >> you've seen a lot of guys selling and reselling for the balance. coming up to a short week next week, so a lot of guys getting out today. that's basically it. we were flat almost all day. one stock, ibm kept us down. >> ibm is sitting unchanged for the year. it's up for the year, down, down for the year. it's very close, we're down 100 points right now. >> all in the last two minutes came in. >> and we're going to get a lot of volume. >> you see that every time they rebalance. a ton of volume, picking up, slow all day.

actually, we were up all day, but the dow was less than the up volume. >> triple digits, down 111 points. welcome to the second hour of the "closing bell." maria bartiromo is on assignment, but will be here in a little bit with a special interview with michael eisner. >> we could see him back here on cnbc. with that bell right now, we have reached the midpoint of the trading year. did you feel that? that's what that was. >> we need balloons, party hats, sng to commemorate this. regardless, we're half way there. the dow losses escalating in the last few minutes. about 30 minutes ago, we were down by about 30 points, the dow ending the week, the month, the