show this morning, don't expect to see it at the purp at least in the near term because the states have a nice cushion of a lot of inventory in terms of retail gasoline which is good if you're heading into the summer driving season. that does it for us on an "squawk on the street." have a terrific fourth of july. we're going to send it over to "the closing bell" on this holiday shortened trading day. thank you, carl. hi, everybody. welcome to a special edition of the closing bell. it is summer on the street as the stock market closes at 1:00 p.m. today ahead of the july 4th holiday. i'm maria bartiromo coming to you today outside the new york stock exchange. boy, is it hot out here. >> how hot is it, maria? i'm bill griffeth inside the new york stock exchange where it's air conditioned. it's very cool and nice in here. but we're watching some very key developments around the world that are having an impact on our

markets today. this is usually because it's a holiday shortened day a quiet day, but it's been anything but because of the situation in egypt, in portugal. we've got our own economy we're keeping an eye on right now and we had some pretty good data on jobs out this morning. right now we're up 72 points on the dow, maria. >> yeah, and we've got a leading business person coming on the program from egypt, cairo. here on the street, bill, we're also keeping an eye on what's happening on the streets in egypt, on the ground. the military deadline has now come and gone. look at these pictures. we've got naguib sawiris coming on to talk to us about business and the impact on the economy from these pictures which once again show millions of people taking to the streets. we have a special guest coming on. he is the billionaire investor

and telecom executive, the second richest person in egypt. his brother is number one. he joins us for a rare and important interview in just a few moments coming up, bill. >> very, very important with that standoff continuing, and it's very much a fluid situation. we'll keep an eye on that. also the bombshell in the united states here on health care last night. now businesses with more than 50 employees will not have to cover their employees at least until 2015. it's been delayed a year, but what does that do to the cost of the law? remember, this was a huge component for how it would all be paid for. so while businesses may be cheering, should taxpayers worry? we're going to look at that coming up just ahead here in this hour of "the closing bell." maria? >> yeah. big development yesterday. so let's check the markets for you as we approach this final hour. the markets closing at 1:00 p.m. eastern. we have a rally right now. the dow up 70 points.

let's take a look at the chart of the dow, the nasdaq and s&p 500 and you will see the gains really at the highs right now as we approach the close. nasdaq composite also higher by about 15 points as you can see there. and the s&p 500 with a similar chart pattern today on this holiday shortened day. showing gains on the standard & poor's to the tune of 2.75 points. >> stocks are gaining strength. josh lipton is breaking down the action. even as oil has gone higher today, now stocks are doing the same thing. >> it's no slow summer day for the markets obviously. you have a lot of news, a lot of data. the data here was actually kind of mixed. adp top estimates but then june ism services actually disappointed but it was above 50. if you want to look at some movers today, i would start with the hospital stocks. as you were just talking about, the crucial rule delayed. the analysts were saying the number of people affected is very small but you can see those names in the red today. they were calling this really a hit to sentiment more than anything else.

another one in the red would be alcoa which is going to kick off earnings season shortly. jpmorgan down grades that to neutral, cuts estimates. that's on lower aluminum prices. >> goldman sachs reinstates best buy. we'll end on auto nation, credit suisse upgrades that to outperform saying valuation is attractive here. their price target 53 bucks. bill, back to you. >> josh, thank you very much. so we've got this market moving higher here, maria, just off the highs. thank you. we'll see you later. up 68 points. let's talk about that. what do you think? >> well, you know, it's a shortened day and the markets closing at 1:00 p.m. eastern, set to close in the next hour. let's talk about stocks and investing second half of the year in our closing bell exchange. joe durant joins us from united capital, tobias is with bill inside, and ed from chopwood investments and our own rick santelli. gentlemen, gooed to see you.

joe, let me cook this off with you. what kind of second half are you expecting? >> i think we will see a little volatility in the beginning of the year and quite a strong end of the year. so just a continuation of what we've seen for the last month or so as we try to figure out what the economy is doing and if it's actually going to stand on its own two feet and then secondly i think what you're going to see is growth stocks take over from dividend stocks for the remainder of the year and probably for the next 12 to 18 months. >> ed, what about that? the adp number was good on jobs this morning but, of course, the markets, the big one will be on friday morning from the government. what are your expectations on that? >> well, i got to tell you, i think the whole country needs to really come to grips with the fact that if we're not averaging 300,000 net new jobs a month for 12 months, this economy is not running at the level it should be. we're averaging 159,000 net new jobs. so whatever that rate might be, you know, we're going to have

some rate that's going to come out and it's going to be every headline, ignore it. it's a mirage. the only thing that matters is how much net new jobs are we getting. if we're short of 300,000 we're not doing as well as we should be. what number do i expect? 150, 160? >> that's certainly been the pace of this recovery, quite anemic but let's talk about earnings. that's certainly going to be the catalyst for the market over the near term. tobias, what do you expect? we have alcoa kicking off the second quarter earnings season and then jpmorgan, wells fargo. it's a pretty big week next week in terms of earnings. >> we'll have a number of weeks in the next few on the earnings side, and the good news is that earnings expectations have come down for the second quarter. we started the beginning of the quarter with earns up 4%, now they're down close to 1%. the big story is going to be the second half expectations. while i take a little exception to joe's view, we're going to see more challenges on the earnings side. for example in the first half we're growing earnings about 2%

and by the fourth quarter there's an expectation we're growing earnings better than 11% on the bottom up consensus numbers. that look to aggressive not necessarily because of the u.s. economy but because of some of the international economies not doing too well. >> rick santelli, what do you think of how the markets are responding to all this news today, not only our economic data, but, of course, the crises overseas. oil continues higher. setting a high for the year. but stocks are moving higher as well. >> you know, to me it all fits. when i look at a ten-year today, it took pretty decent data at 8:15 eastern to get the yields back to unchanged. if you look at a chart since the high yield close on june 25th at around 2.61%, it paints a picture of moderation in yields. you open that up to june 1st, it paints a different picture. most of the good news, if there is good news from an international vantage point, it may be bad news, is floating the dollar to pretty good levels. you know what? all our guests are correct.

if you assume that this pace of job growth is the best pace and you look at things like trade deficit and acknowledge how it's going to ding our expectations for ultimate second quarter gdp we get in about a month, and you look at ism at a 3 1/2 year low and you look at autos yesterday, i think it paints a picture of an eight cylinder engine on five or six cylinders. better than much of the globe as reflected by demand and on the import sign but we're not running the race as fast as we could. i think you look no further than the big boys, so important to the affordable care act when the news is that the biggest of companies rather not participate, look at the history of exceptions. it paints a picture where there's going to be maybe a little less uncertainty until the midterms because of the postponement but still lingering issues that could keep us from

firing on three more cylinders. >> and, rick, i want to add to that because a lot of these companies for a long time were looking for clarity, and now they've kicked the can down the road even further. so now they're going to delay another year which is going to hurt again the jobs and we're going to have a slower economy. so you say five or six cylinders. i'll go three or four because we're just not hitting on the number of cylinders we need to to get the economy go. >> i think some of the employers now may for the next 10, 14, 18 months, maybe they will hire more than they would have. where does it put us back when it starts to be rolled down again? will we have these false starts? it's not a great picture to paint. >> yeah. >> look, guys, it is getting better. >> it's a good point. >> i have to interrupt and say the unemployment numbers are clearly getting better. manpower surveys 18,000 companies in the u.s. they're telling us forget about your anecdotes. they're telling us the best hiring intentions in four years. that's been one of the best

leading indicators around. nfib has been showing for over a year they're looking to hire more. i got to push back against this. we are seeing improvement -- >> i agree with you but the last five years hasn't been terrific. give me some job comps that go back farther. >> we have to go at this point. i know the conversation just heating up at this point. >> that's the important number. >> this is the big -- >> that's the number to look at friday. friday, it's all about the jobs number so that will be the catalyst. thanks, everybody. >> happy fourth. >> just a reminder, this is the last hour of trading so we're going to have to be mindful of our time as we head toward the close but the market is generating some gains here still. we're still at the highs of the day right now, maria, up 80 points on the dow jones industrial average. >> but across the world, bill, egypt is in turmoil as we speak after that country's embattled president failed to reach a power sharing deal with popts. up next, one of egypt's wealthiest people speaks us from

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welcome back. the standoff continues in cairo at this hour. the situation in egypt remains tenuous and fluid as the turmoil boosts oil prices here in new york over $100 a barrel. yousef is in cairo with the very latest on this tenuous situation. yousef? >> reporter: well, we are waiting just as much as you are. egyptians are in the streets, and the iconic tahrir square, tens, hundreds of thousands, millions across the country waiting for that statement from the army to come out. the 48-hour window for them to react to what's happening, at least the politicians to come up with a power-sharing deal, that did not materialize. and they said they would put forward a plan. two things we know here. number one, according to state television, the army is now meeting with leaders from the political scene and the religious scene. that's what they're saying. and then also an announcement on

a facebook page of the president, mohamed morsi, who is saying, yes, we have made mistakes, and we're now looking into working closer with the opposition, possibly a coalition government. also another development, and this we cannot independently verify, i'd like to stress this, we cannot independently verify, but a statement on a page on facebook by an aide close to president mohamed morsi saying, and i quote, for the sake of egypt and for historical accuracy, let's call what is happening by its real name, a military coup. that gives you a bit of a sense. that's just the iceberg of the flurry of activity that goes on here minute by minute and the people in the square waving flags, singing in anticipation of the army's statement that really it is so much at stake here, not just for domestic or regional players, but even for the united states, everybody is watching this very, very

carefully. the markets are on edge. let's see where this goes from here. >> okay. thank you very much. we want to get immediate reaction to what we just heard and what's happening in cairo. joining us on the telephone is egyptian billionaire naguib sawiris. he's the founder of the free egyptians party. he thinks the upheaval is actually very positive for egypt. naguib, thank you for joining us on the telephone. >> you're welcome. >> sho what does the egyptian upheaval mean for business and the economy there? tell us how you see things. >> let me first tell you that the description that this is a military coup is completely out of context and untrue. if you look at the pictures in front of you, these are millions of egyptians in the streets of cairo and all the other areas calling for this dictator to step down. any talk about a military coup is completely out of context

here. the people of egypt have risen to get rid of this darkness, to get rid of this regime which is a fascist, dictatorial regime which has cracking on our rights and messing with the constitution and giving powers to itself beyond belief. so i believe that this is going to be a new start for egypt. everybody is going to come back rushing to invest in egypt as we will have a real democratic and free and civil government that treats everybody equal, respects the rule of law and order, and has a constitution that will represent all egyptians. >> so how would you characterize it if it's not a military coup. the military is putting the pressure on morsi, so how would you characterize that if not a military coup? >> if you have 30 million people in the streets and all the people who voted for morsi were 9 million, that's three times the people who strevoted for hi. the military are only coming in

because the retired -- have threatened the egyptian people that they will kill them if they go to the street and if morsi leaves they will shed blood. the army has stepped in only to protect the egyptians which is their primary duty. if we are in war they protect the country and people, and we are now -- now they are protecting the people. they have not staged that. this is a reaction to the people's request to protect them against all the threats. yesterday the president in his own speech threatened the egyptians, it's either me or you will see blood, as if this is our only option. >> yes. so naguib, you left egypt this past march. you said you had no choice because of the way the muslim brotherhood, the group which president mohamed morsi hails from, is running the country. tell us about that. how has egypt changed since you returned this may and when you say that the muslim brotherhood was running the country, how so?

>> well, i was from day one in the opposition, you know, and one of the characteristics of the regime is they would not allow the opposition to exist. they were tracking everybody. they were eavesdropping on our phones, trying to make our lives difficult by imposing fictitious harassment in order to shut the voice of opposition, to shut the media, to shut the newspapers and so on, you know, so they didn't just do that with my family and myself but they did it to everybody. they didn't leave any friends. they went against the culture and scheme of egypt. they attacked the artists, the writers, the moviemakers. it was like going back to the darkness, you know. i cannot describe to you the jubilee and the happiness now since i have been here and the people seeing they're regaining their country back. it was like under the oppression of -- it's like a taliban regime if you understand what i mean.

>> and, of course, you know this. your family runs the telecom and media companies so you know they were listening in on all phone calls and running things this way. you have that evidence. >> i have that evidence, you know, and i know for certain it was not the only weapon they used. they used the weapon of preventing people from traveling, travel bans. they used -- in any other country mr. morsi would have been impeached for violating the constitution three or four times, you know, so talking about his legitimacy today is a joke. he has given himself powers beyond the constitution. he has appointed an attorney general that is jailing people with a phone call from mr. morsi. he has taken -- he has broken every single rule, egyptian and international rule. so calling himself legitimate today is only a farce. there is nobody i know who is not on the streets of cairo today. i have a friend or a relative or people -- if you look at the picture, this is only one

square. there are four or five squares full of these people. you cannot -- we cannot talk about the egyptians being -- the descriptions are reunited to regain their country and their freedom. >> let me ask you, "the new york times" quotes security officials as saying that travel ban has been placed on the president and top muslim brotherhood figures. can you give me your reaction? talk a bit more about this travel ban. >> first of all, i think there are lots of rumors running around here, but let me say that the first one who implemented the travel ban on his opponents was the president. so maybe he's drinking from the same cup today, you know, but i have no verification for this information. we know that the president has been -- he's accused by an egyptian court of collaborating with foreign forces because, as you know, he has -- the story he was set free by the hamas people and the jails were broken down and he was freed and on the phone talking to the hamas

people to free him from the jail and freeing him of jail, 19 egyptian soldiers and prisoners died. a court in egypt has condemned him from being a conspirator and he has a sentence which he has ignored many of the courts and the political system of egypt. all the judges of egypt are in the streets ever cairo today. >> is it even possible to move money out of the country? i mean, for those people watching who may have investments in egypt, what are you doing in terms of actually protects one's assets? >> well, there is no danger to any assets in egypt. the stock exchange has risen 15% since the news about -- of mr. morsi's departure. you know, i believe that once the army announces tonight what are their intentions going forward, i think everybody will rush to egypt to invest p.m. i'm the first one to say that. you know we're substantially here in egypt.

i think people will always invest with a government that respects international law and rules by the rule of law and order and has a constitution that protects its people and a government that is acting according to the will of the people. you are seeing now this picture, i tell you, this is the biggest gathering in the history of mankind you are seeing now. it's not only because your screen shows only that part. the people are covering all the streets of cairo down to many locations as if everybody went down today to make sure that this dictator leaves. >> let me ask you, naguib, because nbc news is now reporting that tanks are on the move, they are on the outskirts of cairo. if this isn't a military coup, what are the tanks for? >> the tanks have been there all the time. as you know, after the revolution our police has been dismantled and is very weak. the tanks are only there to protect the people from any repercussions because the

fundamentalists and extremists have gathered themselves and they've threatened the egyptian people with killing and bombing and blood on several occasions and lastly, the president yesterday. the tanks are there just to give confidence to the people. i can tell you even today what the you're seeing, this is less than yesterday because many people feared the repercussions and feared they would be shot at and so on, you know. >> and are you expecting a comment, a statement from the military tonight? >> i think we're expecting it now in a few minutes, any minute now. maybe while i'm talking to you it was already out, but i think it will be any minute now, so you should follow up and see, but in a couple minutes i think the statement will be read. if you like, i will message you once the statement is out. >> yes. well, naguib, we are following this. we hope you will join us next week as these developments continue rising, and thanks very

much for joining us live from cairo. i hope see you next week once again on "closing bell." >> thank you, maria. all the best. >> appreciate your time. all the best. >> meantime, as you're speaking, the market continues higher. the dow is setting a high a moment ago, almost a gain of 90 points on the industrial average. so we'll keep an eye on the situation obviously there in egypt. portugal is no picnic today either so we'll get to that in a little bit. also, you know, we've seen them before, rumored iphone killers. they have come and gone, but now one is marketing itself as american as july 4th picnics and parades. because it's made in america. will patriotism pay off? we have that story coming up next on "closing bell." ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪

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welcome back. more news out of cairo right now. our nbc news team on the ground there reporting as maria pointed out that the military tanks apparently are on the move heading into the egyptian capital and according to a source in nbc, there's a full military coup under way at this hour. some high-ranking members of the morsi administration have been arrested and communication with president morsi has been cut off so he cannot confirm or deny if he was moved from the republican guard headquarters. i mean, this thing is happening right now apparently even as the hundreds of thousands of people are still gathered in tahrir

square, and i don't want to draw a direct correlation necessarily, but it may be one of the reasons why our stock market continues to move higher here because of the weight that was put on it as a result of the chaos in egypt. but right now the dow is at the high of the day, up 90 points even as these words are coming out of egypt. we'll keep you updated as we continue to follow this very carefully. in the meantime, google making a bill bet that it's new made in america motorola phones will win a perception battle with apple. jon? >> it's assembled in the usa versus designed in california. this ad for motorola is significant in that it's the first time google has really tried to relaunch the moto brand since the deal closed more than a year ago. the message here is a high end one.

moto x will be a phone you can design yourself. a few people have criticized apple's ad saying it falls flat. what's undeniable is motorola is far behind apple and samsung in the smartphone race with single digit u.s. market share. the situation is even more dire overseas, but motorola is in essence saying with this ad, we're bringing the battle to the u.s. it seems like the biggest opportunity for google motorola to gain shares, actually to take on samsung. easier to get an dridroid users switch and samsung is more vulnerable to a made in the usa campaign than they would be overseas. back to you. >> outside the new york stock exchange talking to some folks. brittany and susan and randy and kurt. so would you buy a phone because it's made in america as opposed

to being made in china? >> i think i would. i think it's nice to have the people here in america make our products. >> what kind of phone do you have? >> an iphone. >> you still have the iphone though. >> yes. >> that's designed in california but made in china. what about you? does the made in america -- >> i have a samsung phone and i'm not very happy with it. >> you don't like the samsung? >> i'm not crazy about it. my wife has an american made phone and i like hers better. >> you would go with the google phone then? >> i would. i believe in american production as long as everything is on an equal playing field. >> it's sort of an add-on i guess. what about you? >> i figure i'm made in america so, yeah, i'd like to have american phone, sure. >> thank you so much for talking to us. we appreciate it. thanks, everybody, for coming. we'll talk to the crowd a little more but we want to get into the technical side of stories. which of these technology titans will be a better one for your portfolio in terms of delivering profits and stock gains.

let's go technicals with abigail doolittle and on ennis tanner. good to see you both. >> you, too. >> in the heat out here. based on the charts, which stock do you like better? >> it probably won't be too surprising to hear this, i don't like apple or google. google has a nice uptrend over the last several years however it's converging. that's bearish. it shows us buyers are becoming uncertain. within that bearish rising wedge are smaller rising wedges. it's dabbling around volatile trading, below 847. google is going to 650. i would stay away from google. apple, however, has the more interesting chart, and that's because when we look at apple's long-term chart, we actually see that its secular bull market is starting to reverse. we see it with apple trading below the trend line marking that beautiful uptrend and it's also converging bearish bearish

wedge. the target is below 200. i will stick with the range i have been suggesting, 321 to 353. i would stay away from apple and going. . >> what about the fundamentals? >> with all due respect to the charts, i like apple anywhere near $400. i think apple is a good value, and we've had a ton of sentiment come out of the name. it's fallen all the way from $700. today it's a ten times pe name with a 3% dividend with the largest buyback program but most importantly to me you have the second half product innovation cycle. you're going to regenerate interest in the grand which we haven't seen in for a year now. i think going forward the iphone 6 along with potentially a new itv could revenerate interest. >> you would buy it at these levels? >> i think the stock below $400 was a short-term bottom. i would say you buy apple near $40 a $400 and sell it near $50. >> i think they need to have the

next i it product. i don't think another iteration of the iphone will do it. we're in a trend of sloppy quarters. until that reverses itself, shares are cheap but they can get cheaper yet i think. >> i think it's a valuation story. it's no longer a growth story. i acknowledge that, but at $400, it's good value. >> abigail, ennis, good to see you both. we have a market that's at the highs of the day right here. the dow up about 90 points. we are just about 20 minutes away from the closing bell for the day, bill. early close today. >> yeah. elsewhere, obama care has been the law of the land but not all of it is going to come online as scheduled, and these stunning changes could really change how much this new entitlement will cost. we have that story coming up next as well. >> and, of course, we have the very latest on the developing story, the developing unrest in egypt. that's still ahead on "the closing bell." these pictures are stunning. we'll take you live to cairo to find out the latest from the military side.

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welcome back. still monitoring a very fluid situation in egypt. we're getting all kinds of conflicting reports. what we're getting from our crew, nbc crew on the ground, including correspondent richard engel, is apparently the military tanks are on the move toward cairo at this point. they've been on the outskirts, and it may be the case that officials inside the morsi administration, including the president, have been arrested. but we have not yet heard any confirmation on that, nor have we heard anybody from the administration to confirm that, but that is the situation right now. it's pretty chaotic, pretty fluid. we're monitoring it. meantime, the stock market has been rising. we're just off the highs with the dow up 75 points, maria. >> meanwhile, bill, the obama administration is delaying the employer mandate under the affordable care act, better known as obama care.

the mandate requires companies with more than 50 full-time employees to offer health insurance or pay a $2,000 penalty, bill. >> joining us from washington with more details on this stunning development is our john harwood. john? >> it was a surprise. it's a setback for the administration that underscores the complexity of implementing this law not only for the administration but also for american business. it does not affect most american businesses and workers directly. why? because most businesses are smaller than 50 employees and aren't going to be affected by that mandate and most larger businesses already offer coverage without the mandate. here is zeke emmanuel, former health care official in the obama administration this morning on "squawk." >> i wish that the employer mandate first had been written differently in the legislation and, second of all-bnt postponed? yes. >> is the postponement going to be a major blow to getting 32

million more people health care coverage? i think the answer to that is no. >> there are some budgetary affects of that depending how long the delay lasts and how many people choose to not offer coverage in terms of the large businesses because the businesses won't be subject to the $2,000 per worker penalty. and more people would go onto the exchanges which are the core of this law under the individual mandate, the requirement that everyone have insurance. those people would be eligible for subsidies if they don't make a particularly large amount of money. there are also political effects of this because it emboldens critics who say this law is a train wreck and, therefore, we should repeal the whole thing. the one political flip side and benefit for the administration, it removes one source of squawking and complaints in advance of the 2014 elections, guys. >> all right. john, stay there, let's talk more about this as we bring in douglas holts eken for more on why this delay came about and what it means for how this bill

will be paid for. let me point out, doug, we're tight on time because of all the breaking news and we are headed toward the closing bell so we will have to cut to the chase. what do you make of the delay and how it's going to be paid for down the road? >> well, i think the incentives are very clear. there are a lot of employers thinking about dropping overage, about half in most surveys are contemplating it. it says for one year you can do it without penalty. dropping coverage is on sale. if a lot do it, then the budget impacts are large. there's a lot of subsidies on the exchanges. >> i guess, doug, you know, part of me feels like, well, business was complaining about the expense. maybe this is a positive for business, but then the other part of me says, well, wait a second, isn't this just pushing the reality just out another year? doesn't this create even more uncertainty? which has been the case for business. >> the latter point is very important. this is a mixed set of

incentives. it says drop now but changing your employment mix from part time to full time or back, you don't know yet. they may throw up their hands and look around. it's a very complicated situation. >> john, obviously moving the delay to 2015 takes us past the midterm elections. what does that do to the whole political dynamic of this? >> honestly, i think not a great deal because there's still going to be a lot of targets for critics to attack. of course, the administration has to set up the exchanges, has to enroll young, healthy people in the system which is necessary to make it work since they're trying to spread the risk around and make it possible for people who aren't young and healthy to afford insurance they haven't been able to afford on the individual market so far. the one thing i would say on maria's point about uncertainty is there hasn't been much uncertainty for 95% of businesses with more than 50 employees. they already offer coverage. they do it and have done it even though they're not mandated to already. so why exactly people would take this delay as an excuse

wholesale to drop large amounts of coverage is not clear to me. >> well, it's not actually quite as simple as that, john, because what matters is the kind of coverage you offer. so while many employers have coverage, that coverage might not qualify under the affordable care act. this relieves them of the obligation of having -- >> that's true. right. >> we'll see how it plays out. >> all right. >> the president has talked so much -- >> go ahead. >> we'll wrap it up. i was going to say the president has talked so much the law will address the growing out of control cost of health care. i mean, is it doing that? >> no. short answer is no. >> well, i would say the short answer is we don't know. there is some evidence nationally that health spending has slowed down. the causes of that are in dispute. it will be a while before we know how much this law itself is affecting the trajectory of health spending. >> all right. thanks, gentlemen. appreciate it. >> thank you both for your thoughts on very important story for this day. just a reminder, this is the

last few minutes of trading because of the holiday. the closing bell will bring in about 15 minutes but the dow up 72 points right now, maria. interest rates are going up and guess what? that means mortgage applications are going down. what it all means for the housing recovery. that's still ahead here. also ahead, a coup is reportedly under way, a military coup under way in egypt. we will have the very late etion on this developing story. millions once again taking to the streets in cairo. stay with "closing bell." take these bags to room 12 please. [ garth ] bjorn's small business earns double miles on every purchase every day. produce delivery. [ bjorn ] just put it on my spark card. [ garth ] why settle for less? ahh, oh! [ garth ] great businesses deserve unlimited rewards. here's your wake up call. [ male announcer ] get the spark business card from capital one and earn unlimited rewards. choose double miles or 2% cash back on every purchase every day. what's in your wallet? [ crows ] now where's the snooze button?

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welcome back. we're about 13 minutes away from the closing bell on this holiday shortened day, and the story out of egypt we're still trying to get our arms around this. we're having to rely on the observations of our nbc team on the ground in cairo because there's been nothing coming from either the morsi administration or the military, but what the observations of our team tell us is that the tanks have been on the move into cairo and perhaps you have had some of the high level administration officials arrested by the military and that may or may not include president mohamed morsi himself. again, it's all very fluid and conflicting reports coming out

of there and through it all the u.s. stock market has been rising. we're off the highs now. we were up 90 points a little while ago but now a gain of 69 points. more to come on that i am sure. in the meantime, the recent spike in interest rates is really taking a toll on the mortgage market. diana olick has details on that for us. diana? >> that's right, bill. even though rates retreated just a little bit in the past couple days, they'll likely go right back up again and that is hitting mortgage refinances particularly hard. take a look. applications to refinance fell 16% week to week seasonal adjusted to the lowest level since july of 2011. refis make up just 64% of all mortgage applications. that's down from the 80% range when rates were at rock bottom. you can expect to see the effects of that in home renovations because refis usually fuel those. purchase applications fell but not so hard, down just 3%. that's because affordability is still pretty good. also some potential buyers who

might have been on the fence about a purchase may have just jumped in. >> applications for new home purchase have basically continued to move sideways over the last month, but that may be that people are rushing in to buy or lock in mortgage rate before rates move even higher. so it may be that there's going to be a bit of a lag effect. >> now, going from 3.5% to 4.5% may not sound like a lot, but the fact it happened so fast and consumers are so used to the record low rates, well, that, of course, had its own effect. rates did retreat again as i said a little bit but everyone i talk to says they're going to hover right around 4.5% to 5% through the rest of the year. back to you guys. >> all right. thank you so much. we want to go back to cairo and check in with yousef again. he has breaking news for us. over to you, yousef. >> reporter: well, maria, again, the situation still very, very tense, but you can hear the

crowds cheering and waiting in celebration, anticipation really for that statement from the army. again, all we know at this point is that they're meeting with the opposition from the different parts of society, from the politicalscene, from the religious scene, but, again, still no news at this point. it's a celebratory atmosphere, but don't be mistaken. tensions are very, very high, and we understand that there are different movements of armored vehicles in different parts of the city. that's according to several eyewitness accounts, and, again, this would not necessarily come as a surprise because the army has been on high alert coming to this location and leaving it. you go through a checkpoint so we'll have to see what happens in the next few minutes. mar maria? >> all right. yousef, thank you very much. we see the tanks, armored vehicles making their way into cairo. we're going to keep checking

back with yousef as this story develops. this is happening in realtime, and we will take you there live. meanwhile, back on wall street just a few minutes before the close here, we do have a market that is higher. that has strengthened in this final hour as we watch oil spike on this turmoil in egypt, as well as the shortened trading day here today, bill. >> we'll be back with more "closing bell" and high drama in cairo in just a moment. stay tuned. looking at covered call strategies to generate income? with fidelity's options platform, we've completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies... to get a list of equity options... evaluate them with our p&l calculator... and execute faster with our more intuitive trade ticket. i'm greg stevens, and i helped create fidelity's options platform. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.

all right. welcome back. we're about ten minutes away from the closing bell. the market has found their way in its range of positive territory. we're losing steam, only up about 57 point right now. the market has given up some done due to the turmoil that we've shown you in egypt. joining me now from right outside the new york stock exchange on this holiday shortened week. second half of the year, what should we expect? >> if history repeats, given the fact that we had a -- more than a 10% gain in the first half of the year, you know, last time we

had that was back in 2003. we were sort of anticipating buys for equities. fact is as we go into earnings season, expectations were 3% growth for the second quarter. however, our earnings guru punched some numbers before i came on and look at the past ten quarters. the upside bias is about 4.7%, moaning if we're looking for 3% now, at the end of the second quarter all numbers are in. >> so you think bottom line it's going to be better than 3.5%. >> right. >> stephanie, would you want to put money into this market knowing we're going to see profits grow 3.5%. maybe rich is right and it's 5%? >> well, what i'm encouraged is about the u.s. economic data is making progress. craziness going on around in the world that we're talking about just today. >> looking at these pictures in cairo. >> it's not only egypt, brazil, uncertainty about china. a lot of uncertainty. would i say there's pockets of places in the world stabilizing. japan is clearly on the mend, if you want to give them that, but the u.s. is clearly seeing

progress, and the economic data in the last couple of weeks has been good. now, i was actually nervous in the beginning of june that we saw kind of a decelerating economic data points but we've gotten pretty good data points this week. i was pretty impressed within the adp, commercial construction actually increase and the manufacturing series. all this week has been pretty good. >> right? that's been the one area that's been really weak. i'm encouraged and if the economy continues to rally, that should help earnings down the road. >> you think m & a picks up. we've got to go. "closing bell" coming right now. the closing countdown coming up. back to egypt as well. major developments happening in egypt. stay with us. and a choice. take up to 4 advil in a day or 2 aleve for all day relief. [ male announcer ] that's handy. ♪

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with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. trading here, the dow jones industrial average coming off the highs of the session. we had been up 90 points, and this occurs even as the price of oil goes higher because of all the chaos in egypt that continues at this hour. the price of oil here in new york back above $100 a barrel. at highs we haven't seen all year, but the dow was up 90 points on the day. we're coming off those highs right now as we head towards the close of what has been an eventful day, and we are not -- it's not lost on us that as we get ready to celebrate our

independence here in the united states, the struggle continues in the egyptian capital at this point, and we'll keep an eye on that situation very carefully. the great usher ringing the closing bell here at the new york stock exchange. get red for the next hour. the "closing bell," it's summer on the street. here's maria bartiromo. have a great day. and it is 1:00 on wall street as we close out a holiday-shortened trading session. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody. welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo coming to you from outside the new york stock exchange and our summer on the street series as we monitor what nbc news is now calling a coup in egypt. we'll take you live to egypt with major developments. a lot more coming up, and we are going to be going back there live in the next hour. meanwhile on wall street, we did have a positive finish to the day even thought the market did close off the best levels of the afternoon. let's show you how things

settled out on the holiday-shortened day. 14,985 on the dow jones industrial average. s&p 500 up by a point and the nasdaq composite up by ten points at 3443. the market close out session with some gains. let's get out to josh lipton with more fizzle than pop ahead of the july 4th holiday. >> the geopolitical risk and growth worries here, two days worth of data in one and it was mixed. adp topped estimates, but june ism services disappoints, still above 50. volume also very light, not surprisingly so that can exaggerate the moves that you'll see. in terms of movers today, the dow, your biggest gainers percentage-wise, cisco, boeing, ibm and verizon pacing the way higher and ibc, chipotle, price

target 4.30, auto nation, credit suisse took that one to outperform. because laggards, meade johnson, u.s. steel and thc and cliffs natural leading the way. joining me now our guests. thanks, everybody, for joining us. michael, let's talk about valuations an fundamentals going into the second half of the year. would you put new money to work here? >> i probably works but, you know, let's be honest about fundamentals. fundamentals have been blown out of water by the federal reserve, by what's happening in egypt and what's happening in portugal and what's happening everywhere so if you're investing dollars and you say fundamental, you better be fundamental long term because on the short term fundamentals really don't matter.

>> okay. so they don't matter over the short term so what are we trading on? what matters most? is it all about the fed still? >> no, it's not all about the fed. there's a sentiment issue. earnings issues will be very, very important coming out in the near term. the jobs reports, numbers fairly reasonable but jobs will dictate the perspective of the market. what is happening is everybody is wait and see on the federal reserve, but we really are at an infliction point where we need to say, and we've been saying this for a long time, i know, you and i, we need to see top line growth for stocks actually to continue to gain share price value. so i think that's what we're really at. we're really at an earnings pause and waiting to see what happens in terms of company numbers and what the outlook looks like. that's what will drive the market higher so, yes, i would put money to work given the fact that the market has pulled back a bit. >> you works but craig hodges, i mean, lock at these pictures that we're looking at from cairo.

millions of people once again taking to the streets. nbc news on the ground calling it a coup, a lot of people calling it a military coup given the fact that the military is putting pressure on morsi to step down. they want things changed. this is not just the story in egypt, but you've got brazil and portugal, as michael just said. does that factor into your investing when you look to put money to work in this market? >> well, you know, it does affect the short term, but it doesn't really affect the long term. i mean, you know, it actually makes our markets and our situation which we tend to slam and talk about how bad it is here, but look at other places, and -- and i think that's one of the reasons you're seeing so much money come back into this market, the u.s. market a couple years ago. no one liked this market, and it's still a very unloved market and very underowned so, you know, here at the hodges fund, we see more opportunities than we have opportunities to invest, and there are some real booming

industries here, if you'll just take a look at individual industries and individual companies, and, you know, i know that the headlines sell and, you know, affect what's going on on a short-term basis but the long term and the actual value and the opportunities are what we're looking for. >> but, you know, i don't think you can discount the short term. >> where's t the biggest opporty you see? >> repeat. >> what's the biggest opportunity that you see? >> there are. there are boom industries here. look at what's going on in the energy business, the rail business. airlines are coming alive again. there's a lot of manufacturing companies that are coming alive, especially, you know, we look -- we try to find industries with high barriers of entry, and there's a lot of those. trinity industries is one of the stocks we like. yesterday one of their competitors, greenbriar, came out with a disappointing outlook, but trinity is saying they see more visibility in

their business than they have seen in years, and the oil by rail new trend is really driving, that so if you look down and dig down deep enough and do the ref, you can find a lot of industries out there that are -- that are having top line growth and that are trading at very, very low multiples. >> and michael, you said you can't ignore the short term? >> i don't think you can ignore the short term. the thing is, and i'm not disagreeing with hodges fund in terms of fundamentals long term is very important, but the reality is that news compression cycles are so much shortened, economic cycles are so much more short than they ever have been before because of the distribution of information and technology, that the long term is not just the long term. it's the long term plus layered on top a lot of little short-term news headlines that impact the long term, so i think to go in and just -- >> but that's been going on for four or five years. that's been going on for four or

five years and we've had nothing but good markets in the face of that. >> that's my point. i understand >> you might get a two-week decline but i don't know too many people that averse to the two-week time periods. >> if you look at what's happening in emerging markets, emerging markets in the long term make sense, middle class growth, a column up on cnbc talking about that but the short term, what happens on the short term? if you buy on the long term and ignore the short term, you just have to urns as an investor that could have negative short-term consequences and there's a sufficient vivability. a lot of people just won't hang around for ten years. >> yeah. >> mandy, short term, it's about earnings. >> yeah. >> over the short term it's about earnings as we have a big week, alcoa, jpmorgan, wells fargo. what are you looking for? >> you're absolutely right that it's about earnings in the upcoming season, and i've seen a lot of negative pre-announcements. in other words, companies that i guess are not wanting to give

people a bitter shock when it all happens and they are starting to guide downwards already, and i think it's not looking good in terms of the number of negative printouts versus the number of positive runs but i want to say because we've been mentioning egypt and portugal and greece which is another flare-up point in terms of the debt crisis as well. throw in some weak overnight data we got overnight from china. i'm noticing that gold is starting to get a bit of a respite. it fell by 23% over the past quarter, the worst quarterly performance on record, and i'm starting to hear people say maybe all these geopolitical issues around the place, maybe not necessarily going to say the worst is over for gold, but at least give it a temporary floor, and i'd be really interested to see whether or not some of your guests feel that that is the case as well, also considering that the big jobs number on friday could change everything, and if it's a really good number and people start talking about tapering, that would probably be bad for gold as well. >> yeah. tim courtney, what about that?

would you want to put money into gold right now as a hedge? what do you think? >> no, no. we've looked at gold for a while, and gold is probably a great -- a great inflation hedge over about a 50 to a 100-year period, but in the short run it's just too driven by supply and demand only. there's little fundamentals to help gold. >> does anyone trade on a 50 to 100-year period? i don't know about you, but i don't planning on alive in 100 years. >> no, no, so i don't think it's an effective hedge. it's gone down about 20% to 30% and prices haven't declined by 20% or 30%. we'd stay away from gold and have our money being used productively in companies producing goods and services and people are use every day like has been talked about earlier today. they are setting record profits, and it looks like that, even while the earnings growth may be slower in the next several

quarters, it's still positive and that's a good thing for markets. >> you would put money in equities right here for the second half? >> absolutely. i think most studies will show you you're better off getting money invested in now rather than waiting or dollar cost averaging. the market moves up roughly two-third of the time, so if you're trying to bet on a pullback, generally the odds are against you. i think if you invest money right now, the odds are you'll be better off. >> all right. we'll leave it there. thanks, everybody. appreciate t.happy fourth of july. we'll see you soon. following the developments in egypt very closely. much more ahead on this special summer on the street egyptian on the "closing bell." a military coup is reportedly under way in egypt. tanks moving in. they are trying town seat president mohamed morsi. we'll take you live to egypt when we come back, take you live to cairo. the egypt situation sending crude oil above $100 a barrel, first time we've seen that since

september. find out how long it will stay up there. a look at the oil market when we come back and who would have thunk, it germany may have the answer to job creation in the united states. wait until you hear steve liesman's eye-opening report. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. [ male announcer ] this is george. the day building a play set begins with a surprise twinge of back pain... and a choice. take up to 4 advil in a day or 2 aleve for all day relief. [ male announcer ] that's handy. ♪ folks have suffered from frequent heartburn. but getting heartburn and then treating day after day is a thing of the past. block the acid with prilosec otc, and don't get heartburn in the first place. [ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn. otherworldly things.

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welcome back. we want to show you oil here which has been rising. west texas crude popping above $100 a barrel. uncertainty about what's going on in egypt, really the culprit there, and we're being told that the muslim brotherhood is telling nbc news this a coup is under way. okay. the muslim brotherhood telling nbc news this a coup is under way. we're being told that tanks are moving into cairo. of course, as we've been reporting, trying to put pressure on president morsi to step down. president morsi so far is refusing to do so. we're waiting on commentary out of military and morsi's office. let's get to sharon epperson who has been watching crude oil all day and sharon, a real move here

going into the july 4th holiday on oil. >> a big move on oil and the concern, is the uncertainty of what's happening in egypt and what also could happen with a key economic checkpoint and that's the suez can a. we're talking 2.5 million perils of oil that is either shipped via pipeline to the suez canal or goes through the suez canal on a daily basis, this is according to tradition energy so what is at risk is perhaps you can see some disruption in supply, either along the suez mediterranean pipeline or the suez canal itself and so that is what traders are most concerned about, and that's a big reason why we are looking at oil prices sharply higher today. the other factor is what is happening right here at home and that is the decline that we've seen in u.s. crude supplies, the biggest decline all year, and that's something as we've stronger demand for particularly

distillate fuel, that's helped the oil market rally. we're also seeing gasoline supplies that are very well supplied, the inventory levels, so as we go into the july fourth holiday though we've seen an increase in the gasoline futures contract, prices at the pump below $3.50 a gallon and they are lower than where they were earlier this year. back to you. >> all right, sharon, thank you very much. the muslim brotherhood is claiming a coup is under way in egypt as embattled president mohamed morsi defies the military's ultimatum. we're being told now that all communication with president morsi has been cut off. he cannot confirm or deny if he was in fact moved from the republican guard headquarters, but they do not know where president morsi is and the communication has been cut off. we want to get to yousef gamal el din in the middle of all the action in kay row. yousef, what can you tell us. >> reporter: well, maria,

tensions are still very, very high close to tahrir square. one development that has happened ask that we've had several of these helicopter gunships hovering over the vicinity. at least two that i've seen and one just passed by again. you can probably hear it faintly in the background again. also in addition, several confirmed eyewitness accounts that there are troop movements, not large troop movements, but in any case armored vehicles and tanks. not clear where they are going or for what reason. it could be at this point additional security in case there are any clashes between protesters supporting the incumbent president and the muslim brotherhood and those opposing him. of course, they are in his heightened state of alert to begin with. the suez canal has also taken additional security measures and the situation on edge at this point. everybody is still waiting as some of the festivities are going on in tahrir square. that's part of the story and

tensions so high. violence overnight. the space to look out for and for now it's back to you, maria. >> thanks, yousef. we'll continue to following and take you back to as the news develops. what is the next step now for egypt? what imact is this all having on oil prices? jock me is john alterman of the center for strategic and international studies and cnbc contributor john kilduff, good to see you both. what happens now in egypt as you see it oil obviously above $100 a barrel. does it stay there? what's your expectation? >> which john are you talking to? >> sorry about that. >> maria, yes, i -- we're in the process of seeing right now, of course, is that the military i expect will put this down. the pro-morsi forces will have their day over the weekend, but as sharon expertly pointed out vulnerability is the suez canal. i expect the military will calm that early next week and that

will send oil prices back down to $92 a barrel pretty rapidly. >> and john alterman, what is your take? the military obviously putting pressure on morsi? what's your take on this story which amazingly continues to develop? >> i agree with john. the canal is really safe, one of the things the military knows how to do well and knows it's really important. the problem in the longer term for egypt is that we have been in this situation where there's no consensus over leadership, and we are going to be in a situation where there's no consensus over leadership. the brotherhood has about 25% support, 25 million egyptians who think the president was robbed and they are going to be unhappy for many years into the future. >> yeah, but, i mean, should the military be interfering here? what -- what does that do to the situation given the fact that it's the military that's really putting pressure here. >> well, the military has always said is they act for the people. they are not an actor in

politics, a guarantor of egyptian natural interests. i think the military has been very careful not to move against morsi until they felt like they had the consensus behind them. i don't think they have consensus but they looked at the demonstrations over the weekend. they felt it was sufficient that they can claim they are acting in the name of the people. i think the big question for the military is if they do push aside president morsi, as it looks like they will, can they put forward something that seems to represent consensus, that seems legitimate? >> yeah. >> morsi gave a speech and used the word legitimacy 56 times. the military is going to have a hard time putting together a package. >> and i don't know kilduff, you said you think oil prices will go back down. you think $1 a barrel is directly due to the happenings in egypt? >> i do, maria. it's because, you know, we have been creeping up in oil prize over the past several weeks because of the arab spring

problems in libya, the addages there, strife in iraq and a big bombing yesterday before i left the office. news came out there. also their northern output through turkey very much in jeopardy because of the syrian situation but $98 barrier held up, and this egyptian situation, the decline here in the overall conditions really got the ball going and got us through that 100 and to 102 overnight, and i really think the nervousness going into the fourth of july holiday got the buyers into this market very nervously, and they are going to be exiting just as quickly. this is weak length in this market predicated on egypt really imploding, and i don't see the military allowing that to happen. >> right. so you think it comes down next week, i mean, regardless of the outcome? we're waiting on a statement from president morse i. apparently communication has been cut o.nbc news reporting that they do not know if he's still at headquarters there because the communication has

been cut off so regard lesion, you don't even put your expectation on an outcome. you still think oil prices come down next week. >> i guess i'm putting my money on the military here in egypt, maria. they pulled it off last go-round when they got rid of mubarak. the number of folks out here in the streets right now tell me that the mother brotherhood supporters, the morsi supporters, won't be able to turn the tide back on this one. they will come up with a solution. there will be military rule for some time, this is what they did last time and what we'll see again. they will get the trains running, banks and markets back together and you'll be up and running. >> ramadan starts next week and there will still be a lot of muslim brotherhood supporters. there's going to be sustained unhappiness and sustained large-scale demonstrations in terms of getting capital markets and all those things i think we're looking at a very long period for egypt right now. >> and what are the implications, john alterman, for

the united states i? mean, all of these coups going on around the world, unrest in brazil and the situation in portugal. how is him pacting the relationship that the u.s. has on these nations? let's start with egypt. >> it's a huge problem for the u.s. relationship with egypt because we cannot give aid to a government that took power through a military coup, and if you can't make an argument that there is some other process going on, the $1.3 billion a year the u.s. has been giving to the egyptian military, plus about $250 million in economic, that's not important, the $1.3 billion in military aid has to stock market it's about a third of the egyptian military's money, and they have to come up with something which on the one hand meets their political needs and on the other hand doesn't look like a coup. we were able to do it with mubarak. there's certainly ways to do it that make it very difficult for the u.s. to continue its economic relationship with the egyptian military going forward.

>> and we saw a real impact when mubarak -- around the mubarak story a year ago, and it's interesting that we're not really hearing much from the u.s. right now after being criticized over its reaction to mubarak a year ago. >> the u.s. is being very careful not to be the center of this story. >> right. >> this poses fundamental problems for the u.s. relationship. the u.s. has been saying please work together, work across. the u.s. has been criticized for supporting morsi too much and not being critical enough because the u.s. didn't want to get into a situation which is precisely the situation we're in now. there is nobody who thinks the u.s. is complying a constructive role, and the u.s. margin of maneuver is going to get smaller and smaller over the coming weeks. >> yeah. let me ask you, john kilduff. the story of energy means low prices, right in the big story,

the game-changer of the assets that america has, the game-changer that the u.s. becomes an oil exporter in 2020, that's not being factored into the situation right now because people are focused on the short term and the situation coming out of egypt. >> no doubt about it. part of the anxiety, morsi has not handled that economy well at all. a cash crunch twice in the past six months. qatar was the last to bail them out with hard cash deposits into the country, and what we're finding ourselves, it's real frustrating for u.s. consumers to understand this, for me, too, as a matter of fact, because we're still importing half of our requirement -- our refining requirement. that will continue to go down but it's still enough to have us be subject to the vulnerabilities of oil production and oil assets in this region, and as we're seeing the region is far from calm. the democracy movement there has hardly done a thing to make us feel better about production out of libya, production out of iraq

in particular, so that's -- this geopolitical premium, hard to believe we're still talking about it when we have record amounts in cushing, oklahoma and here we are, still very much part of the equation. >> thanks very much for your insights on this. much more on this developing egypt story coming up, but up next, with the jobs report out on friday. who knew a solution for the nation's nagging unemployment woes may be beyond our border? steve liesman up next on what german companies are doing to train american college kids and get them hired in the united states. also ahead works doesn't love a good fireworks display, especially on july 4th. i'll speak with the ceo of a leading pyrotechnic company that makes it all happen. stay with us. tion, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price --

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getting unemployment down and job creation up has been a challenge. the cites has been trying to tackle since the financial crisis. german companies may have the answer to creating jobs right here in the united states. steve liesman now with the story. steve? >> reporter: maria, thank you. a strange recovery. millions of unemployed people but businesses complain they can't find the right workers. a group of german employers in charlotte may have have a solution. share hot is home to nascar and some of the nation's biggest

banks. what's it's probably not known at all for is the 200 german companies, including siemens who call the city home. why with the unemployment nation so high does the nation suffer from a lick of skilled workers? this brings together government, business, education and technology and it's helping to spark a resurgence in manufacturing in this country. with more than 1 million square feet under roof this is their biggest manufacturing plant in north america, building steam and gas turbines used to generate electricity. at a time when manufacturing employment is challenged in the u.s., this plant has doubled the number of jobs in the past two year, up to 1,550, but that's easier said than done. >> there's plenty of good people that have basic skills but they are not trained in modern manufacturing skills that we need today. >> reporter: that's where the german companies come in.

they brought over with them their apprenticeship program and connected with local community companies like central piedmont to trade their workers, old style. >> they have a proven system for over a couple thousand years called an apprenticeship program, and they focus on helping students determine what it is to do in their career early on. >> i'm learning how to run the machines. >> reporter: 18-year-old rebecca join the three-year program as a senior in high school. after two years in the program that includes working with mentors she will have an associate degree and a guaranteed job. it costs about $170,000 to train workers like rebecca. she is one of about 15 in the program including three veterans. public funds pay part of the cost and siemens pays the rest at the end of the company gets a skilled work and rebecca get a job which can be tough for graduates in today's economy. more and more americans seem to be questioning the value of a typical four-year degree even though college grads have much

more lower unemployment rates. with the market hard go for a two-year degree and pursue the rest of your education on the job. they are doing what, where and 200 german companies in charlotte helping manufacturing in america. >> that's a great story. steve, stay right here, want to keep the focus on hiring here in the united states as we approach the friday monthly jobs report. that's going to be the big market mover friday, so in advance of the government's numbers, today's adp report showed that private companies added 188,000 new workers in the month of june. that was much better than expected, all this while initial jobless claims came in below expectations so it could mean good news for friday and the economy. joining us now to talk about it former dallas fed president bob mcteer along with cnib's steve liesman. what do you think today's adp numbers said about the hiring status for the month of june? what are you expecting from that report out friday? >> well, both those reports

today were marginally encouraging. however, the other day we got a significant downgrade in first quarter gdp and then we got a foreign trade report that is not good t.showed exports slowly and imports rights, and if that continues, a lot of the strength in the u.s. economy will be creating jobs elsewhere other than here so my guess is about 175,000. >> do you think the events around the world are also creating the uncertainty that you're mention is in the united states? we're looking at pictures, a live picture of cairo, tahrir square, where millions of people have taken to the streets. they are trying to push president mursi out. he is saying i'm not leaving. we're being told now that we've

lost communication with morsi. we don't know if he's still at his headquarters. does this play into the inability or unwillingness for real sustained job creation on the part of large companies? what do you think, bob? how does this all impact things? >> well, the foreign trade issue that i referred to as primarily a weak europe and not a very strong china as well as other things, i consider what's going on in egypt today to be good news after a few days. i'm betting on the guys with the tanks, and they seem to be representing the majority of the people. they screwed up their opportunity last time by electing a muslim brotherhood person. maybe they will get it right this time. >> steve, what about that? how do you see today's numbers? what would you see the impact will be in terms of friday's numbers and any thoughts on what's happening in egypt in terms of how this plays out?

>> on the latter question, there's an interesting development that has to do with what i call authoritarian democracies? these countries, they elected their leaders, but the leaders go on and act essentially like dictators in of course, and i agree with my friend bob mcteer there, that it's a good thing that they are rethinking the choices that they make given how they operate in office, and i think there's questions made around the world when it comes to places like turkey and places like russia that are similar, and i think from an investment standpoint those are places you may want to keep clear of until they get their politics sorted out and they hope it doesn't lead to bloodshed but to freedom. as to the jobs report on friday, i think today's number was a little bit more robust than had been expected by the market, 188,000 in the private sector. you'll want to take away 10,000 for government hiring, probably on the downside. what i'll be watching, maria is hours worked and earnings. those are two things that will

tell me about how healthy the job market is. i would like to see those things on the rebound. it looks like the second quarter is going to be very soft. i've seen gdp numbers now that are tracking in the low 1s. there's even one steven stanley who is tracking a half a point just for the second quarter but overall i think the market has been trading on this concept that the third quarter will be more healthy. >> yeah, it's a great analysis. bob mcteer, steve liesman, thanks very much. we want to continue following the developments here. military vehicles moving into central cairo, a large picture, tanks moving in and a possible coup happening in egypt. these are live pictures from cairo as we continue to monitor this story. more on the rights tensions there with a live report coming up next on "closing bell." we're back in a moment. mine was earned in djibouti, africa. 2004. vietnam in 1972. [ all ] fort benning, georgia in 1999. [ male announcer ] usaa auto insurance is often handed down

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welcome back. we are monitoring the developments out of egypt. this is a live picture right here of the tahrir square in cairo. military vehicles moving into central cairo. nbc news is now reporting that the military is being deployed to key roads and intersections

throughout the country as -- as the people are trying to force president morsi out of office. we have lost communication with morsi. nbc news reporting that we're unsure if in fact he's left headquarters or if he's still there. the communication has been shut. millions of people descending on tahrir square to force the leader out. he so far has insisted and is saying that he will not succumb to these demands so we are following this story quite closely, and we will bring you back to cairo as the news develops. muslim brotherhood tells nbc news that the communication has been shut off with president morsi. four years go by fast and nobody knows better than that than recent college graduates. for them the real world has not been welcoming in terms of jobs. the unemployment rate for college graduates is 3.8%, the

challenge of finding a job is still daunting, with many grads and not enough open positions. we want to get perspective now from two new college graduates with me right now. ryan boppel from syracuse university, a graduate and graduated in may and brook flanagan graduated from colgate university as well. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having us. >> how do you feel about your investment in terms of time and money in college as you face the job market? >> it's totally worth it. this day and age, you know, if you want to pursue a career in something that interests you, you need to go to college. i mean, high school gives you the basic matt, science, crick colum, but if you want to hone in a specific industry or something you really need to go to college. >> brooke, what do you think? >> i definitely agree, gained a ton of experience both in the classroom academically and real world experience and contacts

from the alumni that will help me get to where i want to be post-graduate. >> that's true, you have the networking aspect of it and that is obviously critical when looking for a job, so you're looking for a job in tv, right, brian? how do you think syracuse helped you with opportunities? >> it's great. one of my professors got me in touch with a production company down in d.c. when i ended up interning, opportunities like that, you know, that wouldn't have come up if i hadn't gone to college because most of the times when you're applying for stuff, it's kind of just a shot in the dark but if you have someone that vouch for you and stick their neck out for you it goes a long way. >> we're looking as we talk at these pictures in egypt, millions of people in cairo trying to force the president out, fighting for their independence, their freedom, and here we are in america. it's really night and day in terms of what you're facing as college graduates in terms of

they are really just fighting for basic services and -- and opportunity. so what's the key for college graduates in this economic environment, do you think, not only to find opportunity but to stand out with a crowded field of graduates, brooke? >> it's tough. it's definitely daunting, but you need to utilize your resources. i can't stress enough the colgate alumni network, a very small school in upstate new york, liberal arts education but using those alumni contacts, they are not going to hand you a job, but they will help you get to the people to better understand what exactly you want to do and then find something that will suit. you do not have a student loop, right? >> no. >> many of your friends have student loans. >> and they are dealing with them now. there's pressure. they need to act quickly and i feel like there's kind of the pressure to take something that comes along first just because the job market is so tough right now. >> right. >> and rink, you have a student loan? >> no, you don't have a loan

either. >> well, this is obviously one of the most challenging things about it. most kids do have, most young people do have student loans. thanks very much for sharing your insights, appreciate t.best of luck to you both. >> thanks so much. >> in getting that first job out of school. military coup under way in egypt. we'll take you live to cairo to get the latest on this developing situation as we watch the live pictures of the millions of egyptians being forced out on the street. back in a moment. er) at scottrar clients trade and invest exactly how they want. with scottrade's online banking, i get one view of my bank and brokerage accounts with one login... to easily move my money when i need to. plus, when i call my local scottrade office, i can talk to someone who knows how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade.

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♪ welcome back. we're watching the developments coming out of cairo right now. nbc news is reporting that the military is being deployed to key roads and intersections throughout the country. millions of people taking to the streets to force out the president. we have lost communication with the president, president morsi. nbc news reporting that we're unsure if he's even in the headquarters anymore. he so far has been refusing to step down. of course, he's embattled. the people want him out. yousef gamal el din has been in the middle of the action on the ground in cairo for us. want to check back with yousef right now for the very latest. over to you, yousef. >> again, maria, no details on

where the incumbent president mohamed morsi is and whether he's talking to anybody, whether any negotiations are going on. we're still waiting for the military statement as are egyptians, and people around the world to see what's next, not just for the head of state but for the whole country and what role the army will play in all of that. just a quick note on the troop movement because the gunships, the helicopter gunships are still hovering over the sky here and also you mentioned that they are setting up a different intersection across the city, at selected intersections notably. now, this would be a form reinforcement because, remember, on a heightened state of alert earlier this week in preparation for the demonstrations placing tanks in key parts of the city, especially diplomatic areas and so forth. egyptian television is reporting that the army is making it clear that these troop movements or armored vehicle movements are for the safety of the people, and that could perhaps indicate that they may be expecting

clashes of violence between the different camps depending on what consensus or conclusion the meetings come to. >> you know, yousef, president morsi, you know, is refusing to get out of office. he is vowing to stay in office despite this military ultimatum. he said that he is going to do what the people want. is there anything that he can do at this point other than step down? >> well, most people, maria, would tell you it's a little bit too late for this. his cabinet has fallen apart. the resignations from ministers and even some support from his own backers has at times appeared to crumble, so there's little space for him to navigate at the moment. the momentum is on the side of the protesters who are in the millions in the streets across cairo and the army which has clearly sided with the people. wants to make sure that the government meets the demands of the people, so now in an isolated position, and with the speeches being defiant, both the

speech last week and the speech last night and the facebook statement on the official page just a few hours ago, just underscores that they are not giving away anything, let alone, you know, actually engaging in constructive dialogue, but that's all speculation at this point. we'll just have to see what happens when the military actually makes its statement. maria? >> yes. we'll wait for that statement, yousef. thanks very much. yousef gamal el din right in the middle of the action on the ground in cairo. we'll take a break and when we come back it's july 4th after all and the next guest puts the oohs and aws in fireworks. the first family of fireworks and what it takes and costs to put on a spectacular show. back in a minute. a talking train. this ge locomotive can tell you exactly where it is, what it's carrying, while using less fuel.

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welcome back. so this family is known for their spectacular fireworks displays. let's look at the fireworks business. good to see you, donna. thanks for joining us. >> good to be here, maria. >> july 4th wouldn't be the same

without the grucci family. how did you become the leader of the fireworks business? how did this all begin? >> through many generations of hard work and dedication. >> your grandfather started the business? >> my great grandfather started the business. >> came to this country. well, we started in italy in 1850, and then he came over to this country about 1890, and then the generations just went down. we're now in -- i was the fourth. we've just transpired into our fifth and sixth generation. >> how wonderful, real familiar business. >> yeah, yeah. >> and you are the leader of the pack. what do you think sets you apart from other fireworks companies? >> i think it's the -- the design. i would have to say the amount of time that is put into research, development and design to always be in the state of the art in our industry. i think that's what sets us apart.

>> how is business right now? the gruccis are operating fireworks display all across the globe, from the united states, to qatar, to the middle east. tell me what you're doing this weekend. >> this weekend we'll be in atlantic city. we will be in hawaii. we will be las vegas. in hollywood, florida, stamford, connecticut, all over within. >> and how do you come up with the design you? said what sets you apart is the design? is there anything special in the design this year? >> i would say yes. this year our technology, what we're doing is we have what we call our patented pixel burst shells and what they are is a shell with a microcomputer in it which allows us to get 1/100 of a second. now, when you have a shell that is that precise you can do a lot of different designs. you can make patterns in the sky. people always ask us can you put my name in the sky? >> yeah. >> now we can do that. >> how expensive is all of this? >> there's all different types

of budgets. we classify our programs by classes, city class, state class, national and world. our world classes, of course, are the most expensive of our programs, and they have designer shells, the computer chip-type fireworks where we told you where we can do these designs, and, you know, it starts anywhere from like 7,500 and the sky's the limit. >> fantastic. donna, great to have you on the program. >> thank you. >> thank you so much. happy july 4th holiday. we'll looking at your design this weekend, donna grucci butler of the grucci family. before we go, let me update you on the situation in egypt. we're covering this on cnbc.com throughout the weekend. we're waiting on a statement from president morsi. he refuses to step down. there is a military coup under way apparently, according to the muslim brotherhood, which is telling nbc news that the coup is happening, and tanks are

moving into center cairo. we will have more as this story develops. that does it for "closing bell." thanks very much for joining knew. the market closing atting 1 p.m. due to the holiday. remember, it is a full market day on friday, and cnbc begins programming at 4:00 a.m. eastern. we'll have the jobs report and back here at our normal time at 3:00 p.m. to get you to the close on monday. have a great fourth of july, everybody. i'm see you on "on the money" this weekend. enjoy your holiday. good night. who stand ready to seize them. in a time when the biggest risk is playing it safe, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, our flexible, collaborative approach helps forward-looking companies not only run better, but run different... to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you.

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