many we'll do. >> next, you'll be asking what vintage this bucket is, right? >> yeah, right. >> toasty on the nose. thank you for joining us. best of luck. >> interesting food product. 2013. >> thank you for watching "street signs." it's been a great pleasure having you as guest co-host. brian will be back from his much-needed rest, back on monday. have a great weekend, everybody. happy friday, everybody. welcome to "closing bell." i'm bill griffeth here at the new york stock exchange. a full satisfying workday for the capitalists here at the big board, and an eventful one, too. >> we shut have brought some wine-infused idea. a great idea. i'm kayla, in for maria today. on today's show, the good news, but maybe bad news, for the stock market -- or wait, good news again? it would certainly seem it was bad news at the open, but we've

now made up almost all of the gains. still up triple digits. huge gains in the futures, wiped away in the first hour. the jobs number coming in stronger than most anticipated. and now, jpmorgan watcher said, we may need to wake up and smell the taper. >> yes, it feels like the rotation is under way. stocks are going higher. bond prices lower. pushing yields to highs we haven't seen in two years. 2.72 on the 10-year yield. gold prices down sharply today. oil prices -- >> up sharply. >> -- two-year highs as well. >> it a seems like a schizophrenic market, because we can't figure out where to go or what to do with the data. we are up for the week as of right now. two weeks in a row. the first time that's happened in several weeks. so a good day and a good trade. >> best week of the year for the oil as well. we'll get to that. at the root of all of this was the jobs number this morning. what about the quality of the jobs being created in that report? part-time jobs soaring to a record high in america.

why is that? is it part of a normal recovery, or a reaction to obamacare, because businesses won't have to cover part-time workers for another year or so? we're talking to the folks who are doing the hiring out there coming up later here on "closing bell." also, if you're fed up about airline fees, this will make you happy. airlines may be doubling down on the extra fees, like now charging to get a seat assignment when you buy a ticket. it doesn't stop there. it could also mean airline stocks could finally be something investors could consider. stay tuned for that report. >> just give me a free pillow. that's all i ask. here's how we stand on the marks. off the highs. the dow was up 142 at the peak. up 122 right now at 15,111. the nasdaq also sharply higher today, a gain of .83%, or 28 points, at 3,472. traders, though, of course, watching the s&p. and the number they've been keeping an eye on was 1,626. that was a key resistance level. we're through that right now.

some feel if we can close above that, it might mean good things down the road for the bulls. we'll keep an eye on that number as we proceed through this last hour of trading today. so a volatile day as the markets lose early morning gain, but then rally back. let's talk about it, shall we, in the "closing bell" exchange, with hank smith, gordon charlotte from rosenblatt, he'd be the one in the tie -- the flag tie here today, and also steve liesman and rick santelli with us. steve, let's start with you. you have the results of the snap survey on what this morning's job number might mean, what it does to fed priorities down the road, right? >> yeah. bill, we did a cnbc snap-fed survey here, which we started at 10:00, after the jobs number came out. what we see here is that the market now firmly believes in a september taper. the average is for october. we see the top response is september, which is firmer than you saw in the prior survey we did just before the last fed meeting. so all of the rhetoric and now

the economic data showing that the expectation is september, and october is the average, because some people are a little further on. moving on, when will the fed end qe? you can see that was pulled forward, june 2014 is the top response. looking at how much taper. this is the first time we've done this, guys. you can see the top response being $20 billion. the average response $22 billion. you could sa expectation being brought down from $80 billion the end of september at the fed meeting. finally, you see how much qe. you can see what that does, even though it went up here, it makes sense. when you do the math, what they're doing is factoring out $20 billion and continuing to the end of the year. there's that number, 390, which would be 56 billion a month. i think that's high for the moment, though. that could come down. that's the number now expected in 2014. bill, those are the results. 45 respondents just this morning. >> well, hank, i'll put the

question to you. if steve's survey is right, and we all have to believe that it is, and september/october is the range we will see the fed start to taper, what does that do for volatility? are we out of the woods for the summer until september? or are you expecting us to have a more volatile trade until then? >> well, i think the theme for the second half is going to be all about volatility, because first, it's when do they start tapering? second, it's how much. and, then, third, and the big question is, who will be the next fed chairperson, because we're banking on it being janet yellen. so i think we're going to have a lot of uncertainties. let's throw in egypt, and who knows what else from overseas, that's going to drive volatil y volatility. look what we have from december to mid-may, it was actually very unordinary in terms of the lack of volatility. and i think this is a much more normal environment, albeit we still think stocks are going to close the year higher from today's levels. >> all right.

gordon, i was saying on twitter a little while ago, by the end of the day, what will be larger -- the gains in the market or the asterisks we put next to the gains, given where we are in the holiday and so forth? >> one of the things everybody talks about, the fed, when you going to reduce, how much, and, look, what we saw coming in, the futures strong today, the european policymakers essentially said, look, nothing is set in stone. we'll do what we have to do. you know, it's like the serpent eating its own tail. what's really driving it here? the fact of the matter is, if they decide they're going to taper it and they find they've gone too quick, then they don't have to taper anymore, or they can go back to the way they were. it's the economy driving the monetary policy, not the other way around. and i think people are starting to believe that, an that's where the strength is coming from. >> so do the gains here, you feel -- what we're seeing today, it's not so much a thinly traded market as a market that's becoming more convinced the economy is picking up? >> i think so, bill. we were in a correction. the question is, are we done

with the wreck, is that behind us? i think last week, again today, the sentiment down here, the flow that we're seeing -- even though obviously it's a holiday week, you know, the july 4th thing. but the fact of the matter is, people are getting in behind this thing. and even today, with the uncertainty of what's happening in the middle east and the oil prices going up a little bit, not enough to derail it. >> rick, i want to put the question to you, because, you know, one of the asterisks this morning when we saw the stock market lose a little bit of its premarket gain, was that the market was moving because of the move in the 10-year yield to 2.72%. that was what everyone was pointing to. but i'm interested in where we see treasuries go from here, because, as i understand it, there's $68 billion in treasuries coming to market next week. is there anywhere to go but down for the price of these things? >> all right. so that's -- turn your mike on, rick. do us a favor -- maybe his mike's not on. that's a very important

question. we need to hear what -- what he has to say about that, with the supply coming to the market next week. okay, his battery has died. we'll replace the battery -- >> the joys of live television. >> steve liesman -- >> rick or the mike, did the battery die? >> oh. >> now, we're here. we're here. >> you go, rick. start over. >> okay. the supply next week, it's going to bring in some new buyers, no doubt. because higher yields will appeal to a crowd that maybe wants to avoid some of the risks in the equities or other sectors. but the real question i will always disagree with this panel about is, is it really about the fed? people down here say it's about it. we've had 100-basis run-up on 5 since may, 110-basis run-up since may 1st in 10s. it's been two months. many down here say you need to give time, maybe a whole quarter, to the business community, the investment community, to see how these

higher rates from a financing side change the dynamics. the profitability, stock markup, stock profitability -- >> hey, rick. >> -- and that's going to take a while. >> i just saw 1.953 we saw on the five, the main financing instrument for corporations. does that strike you as a level that would inhibit further investment? >> once again, i disagree. it's about the rate of change. no matter if we're at 8% on the way to 14%, or 60 basis points on our way to 1.60. the only thing that deals predicated at that equilibrium rate -- the rate of change, how it is different today than it was in may. it might seem historically low -- >> unless you're an -- i don't agree. maybe that's true for traders, rick, but not for executives who are going to make -- who are going to make a deal -- rick, you're going to make a deal, and the deal is predicated on its profitability.

and a part of the profitability is the cost of debt, and if that debt is low, it doesn't matter what it was last month. yeah, it could have had a better deal last month. but it's still cheap this month. >> don't look at it as debt. look at it as the vig, the amount of money you have to pay to borrow money, or benchmark how profitable an enterprise is. the price of poker has gone up. and we need to filter that through. >> you should -- >> so in a snap shot, we could look at stocks, but we don't know how structure and leverage has really changed profitability. >> we do know something, rick. we know something. we know the corporations, as kayla will tell us, has spent an awful lot of time refinancing their balance sheets, turning out the loan at lower interest rates, and we go into this -- >> they do it almost every single day these days with rates staying where they are. >> right. we go into the increase in rates, in my opinion, with balance sheets in the most protected place they've ever been to a rise in rate, maybe in the history of studying corporate debt. >> -- think about the customers

of the companies! >> rick, i've got to go. you should see these two at the christmas party every year. you think this is lively. see you all. >> who said this was a sleepy holiday week? >> it's not a sleepy holiday day. at all. josh lipton will tell you that. you have your seatbelt on? >> listen, bill, talking about the blue chips. up 116. then went negative. now, up again 119. a couple of themes here to talk about. one, the technicals. bill, you were mentioning this. traders watching the 50-day moving average on the spx, 1,626. can you close above that short-term trend line? also, rising rates. yields across the curve, the 5, the 7, the 10, the 30, all hitting new 52-week highs. you can see the impact of that on rate-sensitive sectors in the equity market. the homebuilder, lennar, dhi, pulte, all in the red. the itb, down about 2.5%. higher rates, a steeper yield curve, better economic data, good news for the regional

banks. and they're working today. zion, key, regions financial. finally, a stronger dollar, another theme today. you see the dxy pop, in turn, gold drops. you look at the minor, au, abx, the gdx, the miners etf, now down some 50% so far this year. guys, back to you. >> all right, josh, thank you very much. liesman and santelli probably still talking. >> yes, i bet rick called up steve and they're still going at it. >> absolutely. we're heading towards the close. 50 minutes left in the trading session. the dow up 113. bond prices plunge today, sending yields on the 10-year to a two-year high today. >> the bond prices plunge, but those yields are spiking. the yields actually coming down, though. we just saw 1.6% on the benchmark 10-year there. so certainly an interesting day for that trade. employers creating a better than expected 195,000 jobs last month. are these full-time, high-paying jobs? or are employers increasingly turning to part-time workers? if so, why is that happening?

we'll debate that next. also, the jobs report and the crisis in egypt have been fuelling oil prices again. a top oil industry ceo will be telling us how prices and how high they could be going, and if that could hurt our economic recovery. that's coming up. and did you see this fireworks display in california where the platform tipped over, the entire cache went off at the same time into the crowd? much more of this terrifying video is coming up later on the "closing bell." in today's markets, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price -- maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades

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we continue to watch the situation in egypt, as we have all week. although the people change, obviously. earlier in the week, the protesters filling tahrir square were against president morsi. now we have a lot of morsi supporters coming in to cairo to protest his ouster a couple of days ago. and they've been clashing with egyptian police and military officials. >> yes. this is said to be a pro-democracy protest. the situation is deteriorating, and it has turned violent. as you can see by this video, the protesters have turned on each other. on twitter, a lot of

on-the-ground witnesses saying they're throwing fireworks at each other and that the situation has just really started deteriorating there. >> officials trying to bring it under control. and as this happens, the price of oil continued higher today, hitting another two-year high, the price here in new york, up another $2-plus. and there it goes. it just is not a good situation, still in cairo, at this hour. back here in the u.s., much of the day has been driven by the deciphering of the jobs number and what it means to the fed, whether it will or won't start tapering anytime soon. what about going inside those numbers in terms of the quality of the jobs that were created? the report showing that part-time jobs jumped by 360,000 in june, while full-time jobs dropped by 240,000. >> why is this happening? is it part of a normal recovery, or is it a by-product of obamacare, which incentivizes companies to keep workers part time to escape the coverage mandate? joining us now are three people

who follow how and why companies hire. we have matthew slaughter of tech business school, scott brown, raymond james, and, gentlemen, thank you so much for being with us. i want to start with the part-time job phenomenon. i'm diving into the numbers, and i see that the number of people who reported that they took a part-time job, even though they wanted a full-time job, jumped by 332,000. it definitely seems like people want more employment is available. matthew, we'll send it first to you. why do you think this is happening, and do you think this is a normal part of the recovery? >> so part of the reason it's happening is a lot of businesses in america, both big and small, remain reluctant to hire. the affordable care act is part of that. it's the broader global business environment, as well. there's still a lot of uncertainty about europe, about the middle east, the slowdown in china. so you put all of that together, and one of the things you saw in this morning's jobs report was, say, manufacturing,

traditionally created some of the highest productivity, high-wage jobs in america. america hasn't create the net new manufacturing jobs in one year at this point. so we have job creation, which is good, but we need higher-quality jobs at the same time. >> brian hamilton, what are you finding with those private employers that you're tracking right now? are we just in a period where it's more equitable to hire part-time versus full time? or is this normal right now? >> yeah, it is really amazing. private company revenue is way up, about 10% over the last year. we are 3 1/2 years into a strong economic recovery. no doubt about it. for private companies. but they are overhead anxiety filled. no doubt about it. i agree with matthew, that they're really just nervous. here's the thing. they don't look at europe and the bond market, the fed, monetary policy. they look at the things that are going to affect their bottom line, basically, when they look at the sort of public policy, that may be the reason they're on the fence. >> how much of it is order flow,

though, as well? that's what a small business person will look at more than anything, don't you think? >> look at the numbers. revenues are up, profit margins are up, profits are up. remember, consistently, over three years -- now, these guys want to make money. remember, you have to look at it very differently than we normally do about publicly traded firms. their profit is what they eat. so if they're making more money, they're going to eventually reinvest that. they're not doing it, and it's unprecedented, over the last 70 years. so they're just nervous. i think they should be, because we've got all of the endless debate in washington about future policy and how it affects their cash flow. >> right. >> scott, during the crisis, we lost 9.1 million net jobs. since then, i counted 6.1 million roughly we've added since then. but with the propensity to hire more part-time workers than full-time workers, do you think we'll have a hard time getting back to net positive job growth, and also the 6.5% unemployment figure that the fed wants so badly?

>> well, i think we are seeing net positive job growth. you know, stronger than the growth in the working-age population. if you look at nonfarm payrolls over the last year, it's up something, like, 2%. well, the working-age population is growing less than 1%. so that's pretty good news. we still have a huge amount of long-term unemployment. we have still very high rates of unemployment for teenagers and young adults. so we're still very, very far from a fully recovered labor market. you know, i think there are signs we're on our way. >> what about the question we're asking -- i'm sorry, kayla -- about the quality of the jobs being created right now? >> well, you saw a mix. you had gains in, you know, business and professional services, not just temp help. so there are signs that you are seeing -- some gains in higher-wage industries. but a lot of this, you know, the numbers in june were retail, and in particular, restaurants and bars, where that accounted for really about a quarter of the

job growth in the second quarter. i think that's a sign that you're seeing wealth effects coming from the stock market and in housing, people are going out to dinner more often. you know, that's a start. i think ultimately, the lower-end jobs are going to be better paying, but, you know, this is still very much in the early stages. >> matt, how long do you think it will take us to get to a fully recovered workforce as scott mentions it? >> so that's a great question. it has a lot to do with what happens in washington, d.c. not at the fed, but in the administration and on capitol hill with congress. a big part of the uncertainty that other guests have wisely pointed out has a lot to do with things like tax policy, immigration reform, and the potential for that, and, also, policies that relate to international trade and investment. so qe by the fed helps support the job market, but as was just mentioned, it has a lot to do with wealth effects for households, going out and buying more at hotels and restaurants

and bars, maybe buying more homes. but to build a lot of investment and export-linked jobs to the world, that has a lot to do with what happens with immigration, tax, and trade-investment policy. >> brian, we asked about the affordable care act before. i want to end on that note. with the implementation now set to be delayed for an additional year, do you think that's going to have an impact on the part-time versus full-time debate and the quality of the jobs we're adding? >> i do. i really do. look, we debated that for 18 months. that is a legitimate public policy debate. no doubt about it. but remember, you've got 27 million private companies in this country that are sitting down, looking at their revenues, looking at their profit, looking at their cash flow. and when they do not know how that -- all of the stuff will affect their bottom line, they're going to stay on that fence. it's really important point. >> all right. we'll leave it there -- >> by the way. by the way. one other thing, 7.6% unemployment is way too high

right now at this stage in a recovery, no doubt about it. >> i think ben bernanke would agree with you on that, that's for sure. thank you, gentlemen. appreciate your thoughts. >> all right. right now, we've given back some of the gains in the trade today with just about 40 minutes to go before the bell. the dow right now is up by just about 95 points. we have the s&p up by just 10 points and the nasdaq up by 24. certainly, an interesting move in the markets right now. >> back below the 50-day moving average on the s&p, by the way, at 1,626. dell is reportedly goating into the wearable tech game, just as the battle over the company is heating up again. could that end up forcing either michael dell or carl icahn to sweeten the offer for the company? we'll get that next. up next, alcoa will kick off earnings season monday, as it always does. coming up, find out if some money pros are looking to buy the shares of the dow component. and tune in monday when the chairman and ceo will join us on monday, breaking down the results exclusively on "closing bell." stay tuned. just want to say,

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welcome back. we're still monitoring the situation in cairo. not a pretty picture, literally push has come to shove at this point, as supporters of ousted president morsi have taken to the streets to protest his ouster and to support democracy in that country. but unfortunately, there have been some fatalities. >> yes, the egyptian health ministry has confirmed six deaths on the streets in cairo

in the wake of these protests. so certainly a situation we'll continue to monitor as it looks like it's developing very rapidly. >> by the way, one of the opposition candidates in last year's election that brought morsi to power has been arrested on charges of inciting the violence that you're seeing and hearing about there in egypt. so we'll keep an eye on that situation. in the meantime, the marks going lower -- or up, only 83 points now on the dow. could michael dell's bid to take his company private be in jeopardy? several proxy advisory firm iss is expected to rule against dell and private equity firm silverlake proposed $24 billion offer for that computer giant. that could come as early as next week. but in a filing today, dell warned shareholders that rejecting their deal could lead to what they call substantial downside risks to the stock, because of slowing pc sales. dell also reportedly does not plan to raise his offer. that is what we've been hearing. dell shares are off by 3% today.

so who's got the better deal, and what does it mean for the stock going forward? let's talk numbers on dell today. on the technical side, it's abigail doolittle, at the seaport group, and brian white, analyst topeka capital markets. brian, who has the better deal? carl icahn, michael dell, what do you do with the stock? >> it's definitely been a roller coaster of a ride this week. three major developments. carl icahn comes through with the financing he need, writes an open letter, $14 bid. then on wednesday, we heard special committee ask dell to raise their price, and today we're hearing that silverlake-dell will not raise their price. i think -- you know, i think carl icahn has the superior bid. a $14 price versus $13.65. if you look at the eps accretion, as he buys back the shares, it's significant. if you value it six times

multiple, some of the eps numbers, like 372 to 555, you get 20 to $30. >> would you buy it here? >> i think it's good buy here. i think something will get done. it's possible share holders may vote this down on july 18th. i think carl icahn wants to own this. i think he wants to turn it around. he sees his plan as a better alternative to enhance shareholder value. >> abigail, what's the chart look like to you? >> it suggests fireworks to the upside could be ahead. bullish for shareholders. let me show you why. when we look at a 10-year weekly chart, we see a descending trend line. however, dell is starting to reverse above that. that shows that that downtrend is waning in strength, and it's doing so right now in a falling wedge. the pattern confirms -- is confirmed currently for its target of 18, supporting that pattern is a potential double-bottom. it also confirms -- confirms at 18 for a significantly higher

target. so i think that there could be some sort of last-minute surprise ahead for shares of dell that really, again, could be bullish for shareholders. >> any idea how high it could go there? >> you know, the double-bottom, the potential double-bottom, again, it needs to confirm -- confirms at 18, for a target of 26. so, you know, significantly higher from current levels. and it almost seems impossible in the landscape of everything that's happening right now. but it looks like a pretty strong technical formation to me. >> so you both like it for different reasons. good to see you both. thank you. >> thanks. >> we'll see how this plays out. the market is taking a turn with just about 30 minutes to go in the trading day. right now, it looks a little like the open. the dow up by just 97 points. it's turned back from triple-digit gains. at one point, the s&p, up now by just about 10 points and the nasdaq up by 24. >> the june jobs report coming in better than expected. if you have just joined us. after a volatile, very volatile morning, where stocks turned negative. but they are rallying again.

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the clashes continue in egypt. we have live pictures out of cairo. that's the bridge that crosses the nile, and all day, supporters of now former president morsi had been crossing into cairo to go into tahrir square to protest his ouster, but there have been clashes between the supporters of morsi and those that had been protesting all week calling for his removal from office. officials there are saying that there have been six fatalities as a result of the clashes. and now, some companies with employees in egypt are taking action, as well. >> right. that's correct. bp has pulled several

precautionary -- as a precautionary measure, pulled some workers from egypt due to the ongoing violence. egypt, for its part, has closed borders to the gaza strip. it's also declared a state of emergency in the suez canal, which is a very, very active region for transportation of l oil. so for a lot of the majors, looking at doing business there, they're putting it on hold for now. we've certainly seen that in the price of oil as well. but bp just the latest to withdraw some of its workers there in egypt as the violence continues. >> you see them firing rockets and other objects at each other as the clashes continue between the protesters and police and military officials, trying to find some way to get some order there. but so far, that's not happening. back here, we've been trying to make sense of the jobs report this morning. some volatility on the open, and then around noontime, a rally under way as traders tried to get above a key resistance

level, especially on the s&p. we're seeing the dow here with a gain of 103. the s&p at 1,626, it's what some traders feel needs to be achieved, to close above that, for us to go higher. there it is. sitting right on the numb besh. wouldn't you know? >> wouldn't you know? a lot of people maybe going home for the holiday weekend, left the trade on at 1,626. >> exactly. earlier in the day, good news -- is that bad news for the market, good new, and then later good news? that's what we're trying to figure out. >> that's what we parse every single job this friday, whether the good news is good news. here to discuss the very fact, john manley from wells fargo, and jack mcintire from brandy wine global. john, let's talk a little bit about some of the other fundamentals under the economy. the reason why the market moves when we see a number that is good, like 195,000 jobs added, it's because people fear the economy will be standing alone, that the fed will eventually start walking away, and that

that will happen sooner. can the economy stand alone? do you think it's strong enough at this point? >> no, but the fed won't leave until it is. keep in mind, this is very prospective. a lot of this is someone saying, i don't think that, but you might, so i better sell before you sell. i think good news is good news. >> jack, what do you think? and again, we get to whether it's what you think or what ben bernanke thinks. right? >> yeah, and that's a good point. because it's obvious lly more important what ben bernanke thinks. i think part of it here is the wealth effect through qe. they're getting what they wanted. they're going through an adjustment process where maybe the tapering is going to start withdraw some of the buyings. i think you have to think of the markets in two different ways. the equity markets versus treasuries. great news for the equity markets but not good for the treasuries. good ins means the fed will taper. that means there will be less buying.

so what the treasury market is doing right now is finding a new equilibrium price that where it can entice the private sector to start buying treasuries, because the fed, they're just buying treasuries, we know that will start to decline in september or december. >> for better or worse, we've had a lot of news events in the last month, starting with the fomc meeting in june, that got everyone in a tizzy about the taper, and now the jobs number. and then another meeting in july. you know, on and on and on. and importantly, next week, is earnings, john. do earnings matter anymore? >> i think they do. the market can't be right every single moment. you know, by definition, there's a buyer for every seller. half of the people are wrong every time. sometimes i think more than half are wrong. i think the market gets itself tied up in a knot. earnings really matter. if earnings advance, keep in mind the stasis interest rates for the economy, the one that keeps it going steady, rises as an economy gets stronger. i think the fed is very careful how they lead. i don't think they overdo it.

i think the earnings start to help. >> where do you put your money right now then. >> i'm rotating toward cyclicals. i think the bull market is sort of expanding the way bull markets used to when i was a kid. this has been a classic bull market as far as rotation is concerned. and i think it's mirroring to a degree projecting what's going on and what will happen in the economy. it's getting better. >> what about you, jack? do you invest as if the economy is for real here? or not? >> yeah, we are. so we're global, we're putting more money to work in the u.s. dollar, because certainly we think that the u.s. economy is in much better shape relative to what's going on in europe. and clearly much better shape than what we're seeing in japan. you know, you've had a tailwind of support for a weak dollar for the economy, for going on a decade right now. so the dollar does offer compelling value versus a number of currencies. >> is there a level at which, john manley, a yield on the

10-year would go high enough it provides competition for the stock market, crimp its style, or the price of oil does the same thing? >> the oil comes in through slowing down the economy. again, i never really have seen higher oil prices by themselves call the economy to roll over. it's still a relatively small purchase for most people. the treasury market has to go a lot higher in yield before it starts to compete. at that point in time, if it started to do in that, keep in mind, dr. bernanke is watching the same thing we're watching, and i'd like to think he's at least as smart as me. >> he probably believes that as well. >> a lot smarter. >> thank you both. jack, john, thank you for being with us today. heading toward the close. the dow up 112 points right now. again, we're going to be like traders today. we'll watch the s&p, as much as they are, because they feel that could lead to what the market will do down the road. right now, the s&p is at 1,627. they feel as long as it closes above 1,626, it will be okay. >> a key psychological point for the s&p as we go into the close.

meanwhile, we've been showing you the pictures from egypt. turmoil there. the improving economic picture, helping the oil prices spike past $100 a barrel all week this week. up next, find out if that will continue to fuel an even larger rally in oil. we know that airline stocks have been surging. so have airline fees. you won't believe some of the new fees hitting the flyers with. let's see. we're not making this up. how about a fee to protect you from a higher fee? will passengers get fee'd up? or are they resigned to paying up? do the fees make airline stocks investable? that's later on the "closing bell." clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade.

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geico. fifteen minutes could save you...well, you know. dramatic pictures out of cairo. the clashes between those supporting and those opposing the presidency of president mohamed morsi, now former president, it continues at this point. we're told the death toll has now risen to ten. and these are some of the most dramatic pictures we've seen out of that area today. this is the bridge, those of you just joining us, that crosses the nile river. it's been the flash point of the conflict today so far. >> and with the number of protesters just swelling throughout the week, the number of injuries rising, as well, to

210 at this point, this is on top of injuries and some fatalities from earlier in the week. so as you can see from those pictures that we're showing you right now, the violence there is certainly escalating at this hour. meanwhile, we are watching what this is all doing to the commodities complex. oil specifically. it is a tale of two commodity plays today. gold is getting hammered, while oil spikes, very much higher. jackie deangelis has all of the details. >> good afternoon, kayla. we're watching gold prices, of course, closing not long ago. it was a rough day for gold and all of the metals. down near $40 on a strong dollar, and also on the back of the strong jobs report this morning. a 3% drop today after the worst quarter on record last quarter. but still, there were some positive comments saying, you know, we held above $1,200, a key psychological level. now, oil, on the other hand, was rising despite that stronger dollar. we broke through key technical levels of about $102.50 and

close near session high, over $103 per barrel. a gain of near 2% and 14-month high. the bid in crude coming from the strong jobs number this morning, and the thought behind it there will be more demand here in the u.s. of course, you showed those pictures, what's going on in egypt right now. you cannot discount the fear premium on geopolitical issues right now. traders are bidding oil up on that, even though they realize that the likelihood of a suez shutdown is very slim. >> so they say the likelihood of a shutdown is slim, but what about the fact that egypt has declared a state of emergency in the suez? what sort of impact does that declaration have on the markets and for ultimately oil production and transportation? >> really, it's a psychological impact more than anything. the egyptian army, probably one of the first priorities right now, is to secure the suez canal. you've got 4.5 million barrels a day coming out of it. you also have egypt's economy, remember, an economy on the brink -- that's what's caused

all of this, and the ouster of president morsi -- debt-to-gdp levels nearing 100%. it is vital they keep the suez canal open at this point. and so, that is definitely going to be a focus and priority. you have the news out that you highlighted on bp bringing some of the nonessential workers out of the region. if this violence escalates and you see that happen, the fear trade will continue to push the premium higher. >> all right. jackie, thank you. jackie deangelis, who, by the way, spent more than a year in the middle east cover that area for cnbc and was there at the beginning of the arab spring. when it got under way. so she's got some insights into what goes on there. let's get an update on this morning's trading interrupt here at the new york stock exchange. ayman? >> reporter: we brought you this information earlier about a technical glitch at nyse arca that prevented quotes from reaching the consolidated tape earlier. we've gotten official confirmation from nyse arca,

they september to their members in the past hour or so, they say, "please be advised between 7:29 a.m. and 8:41 a.m., nyse arca equities experienced a sporadic interruption to the consolidated quote system and the public consolidated tape system." this is confirmation of what we told you earlier this morning, that they had some issues getting those quotes out. we now have a timeframe for it. obviously, this morning, that happened to overlap the timeframe where the jobs report was released. so a lot of tension in the marks at that time. we'll have to get more detail here on whether or not anybody was adversely impacted by this, whether or not anybody actually lost money as a result of this, or this is one of the technical glitches that just happens from time to time, guys. >> all right. thanks so much for that, ayman. a lot of traders on the floor talking about the interruption and what it possibly came from and what it meant for their money. but still, no clear cause, as

you just heard there. we have about 10 minutes to go before the close. the dow is now up 120, rebounding yet again, quite a volatile and choppy trade. just about a few minutes to go before the close. the s&p at 1,628, so still holding above the 1,626 level. >> and art walked by the hand signal there. the small amount to offer at the close here. pretty neutral. so we're not expecting too much volatility here in the last few minutes. when we come back, we find out if the final few minutes of trading will hold the gains as we head into the summer weekend. and later, an update on the scary moment in california last night. how on earth did an entire program of fireworks end up shooting into the crowd, all at once during the fourth of july celebration? wow. that's an astounding video. >> yeah. >> we'll tell you what's happening now as more than two dozen were injured. that's coming up later on the "closing bell." creating new opportunities for those who stand ready to seize them. in a time when the biggest risk is playing it safe,

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welcome back to the "closing bell." about 10 minutes to that bell, where markets are closing a two-week winning streak. up by triple digits now, so it looks like we'll end in the green. >> i think so. joining us to break down this rather confusing day, let's face it, kevin and ed from pension partners. and you were just saying, we were talking during the break,

you think we're playing catch-up because we were off yesterday, with a lot of developments yesterday. >> yeah, the rest of the world, while we were having a vacation, was up nicely. this morning, we saw an advance in the futures, and then we had the volatilitimey menvolatility. but what we've seen is the good news with the employment and the economy, it raises questions about potential tightening and the tapering of qe. >> all right. >> yesterday, we had calming over in portugal. we had news out of europe that interest rates would stay low, at least for the foreseeable future. ed, you don't think this is good news? >> i would love to be a believer, but there is a sho shouting match between gold and the emerging markets. the emerging markets now trading i think the widest spread ever to the s&p -- >> what do you think the message

is? why is that disnansonnance. >> well, we have the market doing the tapering. obviously, the peoples bank of china, clearly in tightening mode. execution risks everywhere. there's a lot to be concerned about right here with the disconnects. >> are you sure about the four pillars you just mentioned? >> we don't do short. but we are in short-duration treasuries now waiting for resolution. >> go ahead. >> kevin, why if yields are going to 2.72, a two-year high on the 10-year, why isn't that crimping the style of the stock market? >> there's underlying strength in the economy. if you have strength, you can tolerate higher interest rates. you will get to the point where you have friction. you have had over the last month, month and a half, you talk about the behavior of the asset classes. you've had a lot of assets moving down together, which to me, you know, very highly correlated trade, which to me, there are folks in positions they need to get out of, perhaps levered positions, and that means for the short term, you sell everything across the board

just to get liquid. and then you assess where you think interest rates are going to go. i think that's what we've been dealing with. >> all right. very good. >> certainly a circular trade there, as we've been talking about. >> a bit of a circular trade. >> kevin, thank you so much for being with us today. we're very close to the close. coming up, when we come back, the closing countdown. stay with us. >> one more this week. the stocks rallying as bond yields spike to two-year highs. some are predicting 30-year mortgages will hit 5% as soon as next week. jordan waxman says if that confirms the great rotation out of bonds into stocks is officially here. coming up, we'll find out which sectors he thinks will benefit the most from that rotation. mine was earned in djibouti, africa. 2004.

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it's not rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. inside the last minute, and the dow is hitting highs for the session. the s&p comfortably above that 1,626 level, and the yield on the 10-year at two-year highs, up 2.72%. keith, we've been talking about how you traders are watching that 1,626 level on the s&p. that's a 50-day moving average. is that key for you, as well? >> it is. the 50-day average, 1,628, it closes the gap on june 20th. it's a very bullish sign. [ cheers ]

-- i fully expect us to stay there. we were so oversold for a time. [ bell sounds ] >> all right. thank you, keith. we're going out on a high note for both stocks and bond yields, because of a better than expected jobs report. let's talk about it, coming up on the second hour of the "closing bell." another volatile day on wall street. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kayla in for maria bartiromo. >> and i'm bill griffeths. stocks rallying after the better-than-expected jobs report this morning. not after wild swings early in the session. we had this stutter-step on the open this morning where maybe, as we show you how we're finishing on wall street, for a time maybe they thought good news was bad news. because the yields were rising in the bond market, and the dow kind of tumbled for a little while in the session. >> that's right. it seemed like as the yield spiked, the dow went