up fried pickles with a nice chocolate-dipping sauce. admission 12 bucks for adults, 10 for kids. no word if that includes a free lipitor with every ticket. thanks for watching "street signs," everybody. mandy will be back tomorrow. the markets are higher. hope you have a great, hot monday. "closing bell" is next. and coincidentally, this is "closing bell." welcome for a monday, i'm bill griffeth here at the new york stock exchange. stocks are moving positive, starting off the week here. we're having a good day so far. >> that's right. i'm kelly evans in for maria today. the final hour of trading kicks off with the dow adding 102 points. there's plenty happening on today's show. it is the unofficial start of earnings season. >> here we go. >> kicking off about an hour now when alcoa reports. the ceo klaus kleinfeld will be here. we'll ask what he's doing to change the stock's direction. >> that could be the dog of the

dow. we know what happens to the dog of the dow the next year. last year's worst performer was hewlett pack add. >> i was going to say. >> this year, the best performer. >> and best buy, if you could just -- if everyone could time the bottom. >> well, of course. if you could buy at the low, you could sell at the high. >> that's the secret. >> we'll talk to mr. kleinfeld about that. and good news for the tabloids, maybe bad news for the banks, because he's back. eliot spitzer is seeking office once again. he could very well win for the office he'll run for. now, wall street and the banks that spitzer famously went after are on notice and some are already showing concern. we'll tell you why coming up in a little bit. great story. >> yes, it is. and the investigation into the crash of that 777 in san francisco continues. the focus seems to be on the pilot who did not have any experience landing that model plane at the san francisco airport, and attempted to abort the landing seconds before the accident. so should there be more transparency on who is at the

helm of the planes that are flying before takeoff? we'll look into that and we'll have a live report. >> that's a tough issue. let's show you how we do right now. the dow is up 97. we were up 127 at the peak, at the open this morning, sort of been drifting since that time. but at the higher levels. nasdaq was actually negative for a time. it is just now turning positive again, up about 3 points at 3,482. so clearly, technology is lagging so far today. intel is being among those laggers. s&p is up 9 points, .5% at 1,640. so off the highs of the day, but markets are still on pace for a three-day win streak. let's talk about it in our "closing bell exchange." joining us is rob and brian, bill and our own rick santelli. gentlemen, thank you. rob morgan, what do you make of this? i was joking, is the correction cancelled? we had a 5% pullback in stocks, and now suddenly, we're flirting

with all-time highs again. russell 2000 is at an all-time high. what happened? >> yeah, bill, i tell you, i think the broad market is just buying on the dips. it is interesting today, though, that the nasdaq is struggling. i think part of that is earnings expectations for tech companies, along with industrials and materials, have been ratcheted way back. but overall, obviously, a good tone to the markets today. >> it's interesting, as well, that the underperformance is happening in tech at a time when, you know, innovation and technology are the most important -- the most important things that are kind of driving companies more broadly. why do you think it is, rob, that tech itself isn't benefitting more? >> well, kelly, i mean part of the reason, i think, is because some of the stocks in the sector just got ahead of themselves price-wise. i agree with you that there's certainly a lot of innovation going on. but you got to figure out how much you're going to pay for that, as well.

>> right. brian jacobson, it says july, we're in the summer, used to be the doldrum. no longer. it's a busy week we've got coming up. an important speech on wednesday by fed chairman bernanke. what else are you looking for? >> well, this week it's probably all about the federal reserve and when we get to wednesday, it's obviously the fmoc minutes and then also bernanke's speech later that day. earlier, kelly had mentioned about if we could only buy on the dips, and that would be very nice. but then those dips wouldn't be there. i think to an extent that's what we're seeing is a lot of people are looking for the great opportunities. nobody really wants to miss the next dip, and so that's why you can see a bullback of about 5 -- pullback of 5% but capped at that level. for the balance of the week, i'm interested in what will happen with the earnings coming out, what the fed chairman is going to say, but also what's the strength of the market. how broad-based is the strength that we're actually seeing? >> and, bill, it's happening because there's so much focus on whether people are going to start shifting funds out of bonds and importantly into the

stock market. so far, we've only see the first half of that equation. >> that's a very good observation. it's only -- >> bill nichols, this is your question. >> sorry about that. >> no problem. >> well, i just think with the 10-year going up to 2.70, it's interesting to see what people are doing. i think in the last week or so, a lot of the participants in the equity markets were out, and now they've come back a little bit. they see the markets have stabilized, starting to wind their way back into the stock market. >> yeah. rick santelli, got up this morning, and what did i see? 2.72 on the 10. is anybody talking about a 3 handle on the 10-year yield yet? >> you know, they are talking about it, and i think it's highly possible, because even though we're 10 basis points off, we actually are at 2.74 briefly right before midnight, we are still at lofty levels, second-highest closing yield, even at 1.64, going back almost 23 months.

the issue is the deleveraging, involuntary selling. i don't think it was voluntary. i think we may have more bouts, but for now, the game changes a bit. we see certain etfs like the lqd, mub, they haven't responded as well as stocks have on the rebound. but yet, there's many now talking about a new carry trade where you buy a 10-year note and sell a 10-year jgb ands there 180-basis point spread there. or the auction's coming up, where the rising yields may appeal to a new crowd. so i think all this is going to be an ongoing evaluation. but i'm certainly not surprised that rates have not come down as much as would have said this many weeks after the fed meeting. >> rob, i wonder, as well, the talk -- rick raised the issue of etfs, and we've seen the pickup in the etf volume every time we've seen the market sell off this year, and talk about the role the instruments themselves are playing, and what they're telling us about whether it's a retail audience selling out, whether these are hedge funds covering -- i mean, is it short

positions? what is happening here? is there any reason to be concerned about the role etfs are playing? >> well, kelly, i don't think there's necessarily a reason to be concerned about the role broadly etfs are playing. i do think in some -- in some small liquid markets, there could be a reason to be concerned there. but broadly, i don't necessarily think so. but certainly, the advent and the boom in etfs has added some volatility. there's no doubt about it. >> because does anyone just own alcoa out right anymore? does anyone buy an index fund way way or another to basically get access to that? rob? >> you know, i -- i think that people -- stocks -- people still own stocks, but those people tend to be the institutional investors. i think more and more retail investors are getting into the etf space. that conversation has certainly picked up through the recent past.

>> brian jacobsen, i know life is not that black and white. but what, in your view, is most important to the stock market right now? the fed monetary policy or the fundamentals? and especially the earnings we're going to get this week. >> i think that the fed is actually part of the fundamentals of the market. if you think about it in terms of their provision of liquidity to the financial system, determination of short-term interest rates. so we have to think -- stop thinking in terms of the dichotomy between the fundamentals versus the fed, and think of the fed as part of the fundamentals. but this week, i think that on the margins, we are going to see the minutes of the fmoc meeting being pivotal for this particular week, but over the longer term, over the next three weeks or so, i think it's more the earnings picture that are really going to drive the individual names that we still buy and sell. >> yeah, sure, the earnings picture, one that looks a little worrisome. unless, of course, you say, all right, all of the bad news is factored in, stocks are at new high, even though we've had, bill, an extremely high ratio of

negative preannouncements. >> well, i think earnings will tell the story in the next couple of weeks. i think you mentioned that you've seen preannouncements, and most preannouncements than the past couple of years. but it's the earnings, and the valuations aren't that stretched. if you see a beating of the lowers expectations, i think the market will be here and trade higher. when they rally too fast, you sell them. if they sell them too much, we've seen the last week or two, it's a good time to buy them. >> all right. puts it that way, it's easy. guys, thank you very much for your time. >> there you go. thanks, gentlemen. >> adding 100 points, the dow is creeping close to the record close it set in may. josh, how close are we? >> reporter: another day in the green here. we keep getting closer to new all-time highs. the dow right now only some 200 points, or about 1%, from a new record close for the blue chips. the s&p, some 30 points, or about 2%, from making a new

record for the benchmark gauge. today, a host of big names making new all-time highs of their own, including amazon, which moved higher. stock now up some 15% so far this year. united health also hitting a record high. barons saying the stock of the insurer could surge 40% over the next two years. starbucks edging into the green, touching a new all-time high in the process. that one up nearly 30% so far in 2013. and one final mover to mention, dell. carl icahn and southeastern urging shareholders to vote against michael dell's offer to take it private, this after investment advisory firm iss recommended shareholders vote in favor of dell's offer. kelly, back to you. >> all right. thank you, josh. there are now just about 50 minutes to go before the closing bell. did i get that right? >> well done, yes. you got it. >> the dow is adding 94 points at the moment. the s&p is up about a .5%. and the nasdaq is the lagger in

the market. now, hedge funds or the government. if one is suing the other, who do you rout for? >> we have a hedge fund now suing uncle sam, and it goes back to the fannie/freddie situation, with the taxpayers in the middle. >> this could be a huge one, this could go to the supreme court. and stocks inching closer to new high, but that was anything but the case 81 years ago today on wall street. coming up, find out how history in a bad way was made back on july 8, 1932. >> video taken by art by the way. >> oh, no. alcoa getting set to kick off earnings season after the bell. chairman klaus kleinfeld will break down the numbers exclusively on "closing bell" for us and tell us how he plans to turn around what has been the worst performing dow component this year in 2013. stay tuned. yeah, i'm married. does it matter? you'd do that for me? really? yeah, i'd like that. who are you talking to?

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treasury department being sued by a large hedge fund that invested in both fannie mae and freddie mac. our kate kelly joins us now to explain what's behind the lawsuit. kate? >> reporter: bill, the hedge fund perry capital is suing the treasury and federal housing finance agency over a 2012

measure that eliminated future gains in the investments in fannie and freddie. perry, which manages about $9 billion, bought a substantial amount of preferred shares in 2010 with the expectation they'd pay off handsome dividends. as it turns out, they have, in the form of a $66 billion payment to the treasury just last month. the largest dividend on record. but they and other investors aren't sharing the pot. as part of the government takeover of fannie and freddie in 2008, they were expecting an annual 10% dividend once the agencies returned to the black. but under a 2012 amendment to that act, known as the sweep amendment, that profit sharing was eliminated with only the treasury benefitting. perry now argues that the sweep amendment undertaken by the treasury and the fha was arbitrary and wrong and it amounts to self-dealing by the government that destroys billions in value. the treasury and fhfa have declined so far to comment. skeptics point out that the $66 billion dividend helped

stave off an ugly debt ceiling debate for another quarter or two, kelly and bill, but a court will have to determine who's right. >> kate, you also just broke a story about the banks and capital requirements. can you bring people up to speed on what's going on there? >> reporter: absolutely. so the fdic is expected to announce new bank capital requirements tomorrow morning at 9:00. and we are hearing that the standards will be tougher than originally thought. under basel 3, as a reminder, they have to hold 3% of the common equity against total asset the, meaning they will be able to borrow a little less in the future as a way to stave off future systemic risks. but under tomorrow's proposed guidelines, that 3% figure goes to 5%. this requirement known as the simple leverage ratio could be a big negative for goldman, jpmorgan, and other banks since off-balance assets are likely to be included in the asset allocation, but they may have sympathy from the fed, which was said to be open to higher borrowing levels as recent as their meeting last week, and maybe with the fed, public

commentary, they may be able to sway regulators during the public comment period that that follows that the number should be closer to 3 than 5, which would enable them to borrow a bit more. >> better than 6%. i know the banks sold off after the news. we'll keep a close eye on them, especially into the closing bell. kate kelly with us. thomson reuters, another story we're following, suspending its practice of allowing some clients pay for early market data. ayman broke the story. he joins us with more details. hey, aayman. >> reporter: the investigation extends beyond just thompsson reuters and that investigators are prepared to follow any logical leads they develop as they investigate here well beyond thomson reuters into other unfair market advantage based on timing disparities in the market. now, as you say, thompson

reuters announced late last night it would suspend its early release of the university of michigan consumer sentiment data. here's the statement, though, from thomson reuters. they said they've done this at the request of the new york attorney general, but they also say that thomson reuters strongly believes that news and information companies can legally distribute nongovernmental data and exclusive news through services provided to fee-paying subscribers. so thomson reuters there defending the overall practice here in general. eric schneiderman, however, disagreeing with that in his statement today. here's what the new york attorney general has said. he said the securities markets should be a level playing field for all investors and the early release of data undermines fair play in the markets. now, bill, i should say that this broader investigation beyond just thompson reuters could have implications for other news and data services that send information on a high-speed basis to market participants. a lot of those folks will have to be looking very carefully at their arrangements and figuring out whether or not they violate

the spirit here of the rules that the new york attorney general is citing in this agreement. >> thompson reuters has said all along this was disclosed publicly, it was in their fine print. i guess we found something else that didn't read the fine print, ag schneiderman. >> and they said this time around it has continued to disclose this publicly and it will continue to disclose this publicly. they defend the practice. they say they've done this now voluntarily, the suspension of the two-second early release, but they did it at the request of the attorney general. >> all right. eamon, good stuff. thank you. again, the dow up 89 points. it was up 127. see if we can get back to the high of the day before the session is over. friday, we saw things going high into the close, and it will tell us about the sentiment. priceline took a hit after killing off william shatner as

the pitchman. since resurrecting the character, the stock is red hot, up 40% this year. could this be the first $1,000 stock? guess not the first. the first we're watching this year. someone out there says the stock is still a deal and could be headed for 900 next. >> we'll look at the charts on that one. former new york governor eliot spitzer trying to resurrect his own career. see congressman wiener for that one, right? he's running for new york city's comptroller office, but are his longer-term plans even bigger, and are the banks and wall street in his crosshairs once again, an intriguing story we'll explore later on the "closing bell." with fidelity's options platform, we've completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies... to get a list of equity options... evaluate them with our p&l calculator... and execute faster with our more intuitive trade ticket. i'm greg stevens, and i helped create

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welcome back. with over a half hour to go in today's trading session, kicking off the week on a positive note. we finished higher friday after the strong jobs report that usually sets the tone for a good month of trading. closing higher despite higher yields on the 10-year. and perhaps bolstered in part by positive comments from across the atlantic, but plenty of optimism so far in the program about u.s. stocks on their own. >> getting ready for the earnings coming out. in the meantime, priceline shares up almost 4% after morgan stanley upgraded the travel giant to overweight rating. that stock is up more than 40% just this year so far. are shares of priceline getting a little pricey, or is there more room to run?

let's talk about it in talking numbers. on the technical side with jonathan, and on the fundamentals side, it's mark, associate investment director at the oxford club. gentlemen, good to see you both. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> hi, bill. >> jonathan, what's the chart look like? would you bid on priceline here? >> well, bill, i think we would. priceline is your classic momentum stock, and generally with momentum stocks, you want to ride the trend as long as it's in your favor. if we look at the three-year chart, we can see it's decertaiy been doing that. for 2012, it was range bound in a wide but well defined range between 550 on the downside and 775 on the upside. in may of this year, it broke up 775 and hasn't looked back. so from a measured move perspective, that projects an upside to $1,000 a share. now, $1,000 sounds like a nice, flashy price target, but it does have other meaning, and if we look back at the 13-year chart going all the way back to priceline's ipo from the tech level, we can see the all-time

high was right around the $1,000. so it kind of seems like it has a magnet there to us, and while it's extended in the short term, we think it ultimately does see the four-digit number. >> wow. mark, do the fundamentals support that kind of a chart? >> well, you know, this is one of those cases where i like the company, but not necessarily the stock. i mean, from a financial performance standpoint, priceline is good. good earnings growth, cash flow growth, revenue growth. great marketing. a great brand awareness. they got the guy from "tj hooker," good move. it's expensive. it trades 30 times earnings, 20 times cash flow, 10 times book. i'm a little concerned that so many analysts love it. the bandwagon is very full. >> i would -- i would agree there, but also say it's a lot cheaper on a p/e basis now as opposed to 1999, and momentum stocks are always at a high multiple. fighting it is a tough game to play here. >> that's true. let me ask you, jonathan, about your price target, because what i wanted to say is, you know, i

see a lot of risk here in that there's so many analysts that like the stock and that if there is some kind of disappointment, i think there's considerable risk here, at least 10% easily on a downside move. so for me, i want to see three times the risk -- you know, three times the potential reward for the risk. for me, $1,000 price target doesn't cut it. >> yeah, i would say -- i have to mention an overbought condition in the short term. i wouldn't necessarily buy today. any type of pullback, you want to be a buyer here. >> all right. good stuff, guys. thank you both for joining us. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> that guy from "tj hooker." i like that. >> well, i think, look, we've been focusing so much on whether it would be apple hitting $1,000 or google, and priceline comes sneaking back in. maybe they'll be the ones to hit it first. in any case, the dow is up about 92 points, so off the session highs. but still trying to close with a triple-digit gain for the second-trading session in a row. there are just a little more than 30 minutes to go before the bell. >> yes, it's true, earnings season is about to kick off with

alcoa. that's coming up at the top of the hour. will investors finally focus on wall street profits rather than trading on the tapering fears from the fed? we're going to talk about that balancing act coming up next here. >> that's right. and speaking of alcoa, can its results turn around about what has been the worst dow performer this year? we'll ask the chairman and ceo klaus kleinfeld when he joins us exclusively moments after the numbers are released. stay with us. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 opportunities are waiting to be found in faraway places. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 markets on the rise. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 companies breaking through. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 endless possibilities. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with schwab, i search the globe for the big movers. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can trade in 30 different markets tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help me seize opportunities, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 potentially better returns and new ways to diversify. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to get an edge, i use schwab's global research.

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so if you haven't heard yet, earnings season kicks off after the bell. we've got alcoa reporting at that time. you might be a little young to remember, but way back when the stock market used to trade on things like earnings, you see, that mattered. >> things like fundamental profitability of a company? >> right. >> yeah. >> and the fed was just sort of secondary. but now, the fed has become a fundamental for the market now. >> it is an important point. and we know it's about more than just risk-on, risk-off, but it dels you a lot about -- tells you a lot about psychology. there's been a sense that if the

fed backs away, the fundamentals are not there. but the question is whether earnings will trump the fed and taper talk when it comes to the stock market. so let's bring in nick from the earnings scout, our own ron, and greg from the economist. guys, good afternoon. welcome. >> hey there. >> so, nick, let's start with you. you're the earnings scout here. earnings don't look all that great, so i guess, you know, do we really want to hand the baton over at this point? >> -- over the last eight quarters there's been steady improvement. what we've been saying is they've gone from awful to less awful. that's been a positive delta in moving the market up higher. when it comes to the central bank action, certainly it matters. we look at that as analysts and strategi strategists. we would love to follow the earnings and cash flows instead of wondering what the bank of korea or the reserve bank did overnight. when you look at the central bank action, it's not just all about the fed as we've been saying, but what they're

propping up. if you look at the s&p 500 this year, it's up. but of the industries with higher earnings expectations on june 30th than they did at the beginning of the year, 81% are outperforming the market. we still say it's all about earnings. >> ron, we talked earlier about how we had a 5% correction, pullback in this market, and then it's off to the races again. is that because they're expecting a better earnings, or they're comforted that the fed is putting the net under the market? >> i think the fed's there. i also think our old friend steve, a very technical analyst, coined the phrase news response syndrome. and that's shifting, instead of good news being bad news, meaning the fed will taper off as the economy strengthens, good news is turning into good news. the economy is strengthens, and i think corporate profits will strengthen along with the economy. we're transitioning into the mode where good news is good news. the fed doesn't not matter. the fed matters a lot. if this is a self-sustaining and sustainable recovery, then wall

street may enter the second face of what is a secular bull market. >> greg, that's almost why it seems so important to focus on revenue growth this time around, which, by the way, last quarter wasn't there. i mean, that was a real disappointment. if this transition is happening, it's okay to see earnings growth, to see profit growth moderating. if it's at the same time that labor income's picking up and the economy is showing signs that it's generally in the sustainable period of growth. >> well, this basically comes down to the question of whether the fed has its timing right. the fed's been pretty clear that they would start to pull back on their accommodative policies when the economy did as it was supposed to do, and finally develop the self-sustaining momentum. is the fed right? well, we'll know soon. friday's employment report was certainly encouraging. let's face it, gdp growth is still around 2%. it's not enough to get us above this really kind of soft pace of earnings growth of 3, 4%. when you think about the stock market, it's always two things. earnings and price earnings ratios, and with earnings having been lousy for a couple of years

now, all of the outperformance in the stock market has been p/e ratios expanding, and that's been number one, easy money by the fed. and some of the tail risks, whether it was fiscal cliff or collapse of europe, getting smaller. here on in, it's got to be about earnings growth. >> greg, you're our resident fed watcher on this panel. do you think ben bernanke wants to matter more than earnings right now? >> no, absolutely not. i mean, there's nothing those guys would love more than to be out of the picture, to have the economy running on its own steam. i think there is an almost existential burning desire to get back to, quote, normal, unquote. that's one of the reasons there's so much resolution on the part of everybody, on the fomc, to end quantitative easing. that's one of the things i'll be looking for on wednesday when we get the minutes to the meeting. how universal is among the fed that they need to bring qe to a halt. >> nick, can you talk about earnings and where we are with this cycle relative to the past? how do things fundamentally look now?

are they different than in previous cycles? >> no, as we said -- no, we don't think they're different at all. the earnings patterns we've seen off the financial crisis look very similar to the patterns that we observed after the s&l crisis in the '90s, and the dot-com crisis. we think earnings growth will reaccelerate in the second quarter from the first quarter, and we're basing that on the companies that have reported may quarter ends. they've shown reacceleration of growth. and the second-half estimates, guidance will be the important thing here. and what looks bad, as i said, a snapshot in time, three out of four companies that have reported earnings so far, second quarter with may quarter ends, have had to lower the third quarter numbers, but only by about 2%. >> can i make a point there? >> -- so what i was going to say, we'll have reacceleration of growth in the second half, and that will deal with the fed's ability to start its taper. >> go ahead, greg. >> nick made a good point about comparing it to, say, the early

'90s, that's when gdp was nominal at 5%, 6%. that was a proxy for long-term growth. now, it's only growing 4%, 5% a year. by that proxy, i think we kind of have to lower our expectations. >> and, also, a proxy for long-term interest rates as well. we don't have that tapering is different than tightening. the fed is not tightening. it will be accommodative until 2015, 2016. so they're not tightening up on credit conditions. the corporations -- >> well -- >> well, no, they're not. they're really not. >> let me put it this way, is 2.7% the appropriate level for the 10-year right now? should it be higher or lower? >> private sector economic growth, it's closer to 3% than 2%. the 10-year yield tracks nominal growth. that's about where we are if you take away fiscal drag. the rates are high for where we are at the moment. i don't think this is the same as tightening. it's more like '94, '95 than it is, let's say, '91 -- i should say '89 or 2000, or a period

like that. >> ron, we'll have to save that for argument for the next go-round. >> no, no, let's do it right now, kelly. >> yeah, you just pushed her button, ron, i can tell. >> we'll have ron, greg, nick back to continue the conversation. thank you all this afternoon. >> thanks, guys. we'll get the first read into the corporate profits when alcoa kicks off the earnings season at the top of the hour. just be fair warned. and chairman and ceo klaus kleinfeld breaks down the numbers before he even speaks to analysts. you'll hear what he has to say coming up on "closing bell." we're about 23 minutes away from the closing bell. the dow up 89 points, off the highs of the day. technology's been a drag. the nasdaq has been struggling to remain positive in today's trading so far. >> it did go briefly negative. now up by only about a point. up next, we'll put our historian, bob pisani, to the test. find out if he knows what happened 81 years ago today. and kate kelly reporting that banks are going to be

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all right. we're kicking off the week in the green today. up almost 100 points on the dow, in fact. >> what happened to the apple crate that simon hobbs usually stands on? i'm missing that. >> i don't know what you're talking about. >> bob pisani, welcome back. >> ooh, now you're just being tough over there. >> oh, no, no. >> good to be back. >> by the way, the dow is on a mini-winning streak. >> yeah. >> how are we looking at the close? >> looking good. we're heading into earnings season. the s&p 500 is 1.5% from historic high. banks, which i care about, thank you, jpmorgan, wells fargo, holding up well. the important thing is, i want to hear what they have to say about the steepening of the yield curve on friday. look at the numbers, up nicely. a new high for wells fargo. us bancorp, regions pnc, new highs. no sign that everybody is running for the hills into the earnings season. one of the reasons rear weak is semiconductors are weak. that's why the nasdaq has had trouble. intel had trouble. a downgrade, some comments from

citigroup. some of the hardware stocks haven't been doing much. another weak group, no traction or turnaround in emerging markets, so the etfs for, thailand, the philippines, and naturally lly egypt is down. emerging markets are weak today. i want to note the s&p 500, 1,669 is the historic closing high, and we are just -- just below that, 1.5, 1.6%. and that's the bottom line. i know you've had a great discussion there on earnings where we're going. but right now, as far as the market's concerned, there's no freak-out. >> we have the signs of the mix of the russell, closing a thousand friday. >> up 8% in two months. >> and yet the semis lagging. this is something almost more -- what's the word, structural than cyclical, right? you can look at norm holdings, a better position, weakness relative specific to intel, to qualcomm, not necessarily the same kind of cyclical gauge perhaps as in the past. >> i look to say structural

versus cyclical. i like the way -- >> i like the view from this level. it's pretty good. i wish i were this tall. on this date, how long ago, july 8, 1932 zsh 81 years. >> what happened on this date 81 years ago? >> the dow hit the historic low. you want to know, we're talking 13,000. the dow hit 41. >> 41.22. >> 41. not 4,100 or anything like that. 41. by the way, the old high, september 29th, i think it warks 1929, 381 i think it was. >> wow. >> so we dropped 90% between 1929 and 1932, and you know how long it took to get back to that the old 1929 high? >> 30 years or something. >> 25 years. it was 1954 before the dow jones industrials average went back to that old 300 -- >> our executive producer can't believe you knew this. did somebody prompt you on this? not i would question you necessarily. >> first of all, this is -- ron insana knows this stuff better than i do, backwards and forwards. he knows the decimal points.

i learned it by being with him. i hang out with the right guy. >> that's how that works, yes. >> yes. >> thank you, it's history. good to know this kind of stuff. after the market break in 2008, there were those who felt we would see a market continue lower like we did into 1932. in fact, we did when the dow hit that low in march of '09. that was sort of tantamount to that. >> what's important is people bellyache endlessly to go seven years from the historic high in 2000 to 2007. this is 25 years, that's why we talk about this stuff, the old high in 1929 to the past -- >> the past three, four years to get back from the '09 lows. >> that's what i mean by historic perspective on this. >> thank you, bob. very good stuff. less than half an hour to go before the closing bell. the dow is up 92 points. the nasdaq, we've been watching, a bit of a lagger, s&p ending about .5%. after a breather in june, the s&p is now up 2% in the month of july.

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i dare you to say what you just said. no, don't do that. >> we're watching nielsen today, and also watching sprint. >> sprint's coming out. we have a trading crowd gathering over here just next to us here as -- at the close today, sprint out of the s&p 500 and nielsen, ac nielsen will be going in. >> i was congratulating nielsen meaning they could measure ratings on trading floors. >> or words to that effect. >> markets are close to a three-day winning streak. >> joining us on the floor next to the crowd, aaron gibbs from s&p capital iq, matt from bertram financial, as well. what do you make of this -- i mean, the rally continues. here we go again. did you get enough of a correction? >> you know -- >> from the 5% pullback? >> there was enough money put into place on the pullback. we broke through the 1,621, an important level in the s&p technically. we had a vacuum effect.

when there's not a lot of volume, a holiday week, so we get the vacuum effect. maybe we get to 1,660, that's when we'll run into resistance. one thing i'm looking at is the semis today, a little weak. that's something to keep an eye on. if there's follow-through with that tomorrow, i'll be concerned. >> intel has been a lagger today. >> yes, what does that tell us going into earnings, how much emphasis on tech? >> we're coming off the payroll numbers on friday, just getting started on the earnings season. i.t. is basically the lowest q2 earnings, the lowest earnings growth, largest negative earnings growth, and we're going to see -- specifically with the hardware, computers, the semis, and we'll see as the numbers come in, getting negative guidance, and it's going of 5-to-1, negative guidance to positive guidance, and mostly coming from tech. we'll continue to see those being weak throughout the q2 earnings season until we, like,

have more stability for the end of the year. >> where are expectations highest? who is expected to put up the best earnings growth numbers? >> now, we're looking at consumer discretionary and financials, and they're both hovering a little above 12% growth for q2, and around in line with a 7% for the end of the year, for 2013. that's really been priced in. they are both up 18% year to date. >> right. >> so they're going to need to meet the expectations, or we could see vulnerability there. >> maybe not a lot of volatility. it's been paired off. art handed me what's the closing-end balances, sell side by $26 million. that's nothing. >> no, nonevent, especially after the numbers we've seen over the last few weeks, end of june, end of the quarter, some rebalances, 26 million bucks is not bad. >> matthew, how important are financials to this market now? >> if they're going to be a new leader, they're very important. starting to see regulation going into some of the banks. we'll see how that plays out as well. i think that -- they've been a

quiet sector during this whole thing. if they do have spectacular earnings, and the tech earnings are weak, maybe we have a new leader. >> and interesting in the financials, it's not the big banks. it's the reits and -- >> yes, that's interesting. especially with the rates. people are worried about what they've done to the various sectors. >> the regionals hit a 52-week high today, as a matter of fact. they are showing relative strength there. alcoa is not the bellwether it used to be, is it? it kicks off the earnings parade, but it's hardly the grand marshal. >> no. not by far. and, look, we knew going in, the materials, it's a tough quarter for them. i'm impressed they've been holding their own so far. >> they're trying to bring costs down. every quarter we keep hearing this from klaus kleinfeld. it will be interesting to see how much costs he can ring out from his operations. >> they're missing on revenue estimates and they're beating eps, and this is the third

quarter of seeing that trend. >> and yet, look at the job growth numbers that we're seeing. i mean, maybe it's the opposite where they're cutting costs by paring back on tech. >> that's what i meant. >> yes, a great point. >> conflicting job numbers. it's a good point. >> well, at the same time we're going to be watching to see if there's anything that alcoa does tell us, jim's out there, saying, look, don't count these guys out. they're still going to tell us about the fundamental demand they're seeing in europe, in china, whether they're able to address the capacity issues. there's still signals for the broader markets. >> it's a microfixer. it's not just alcoa. they'd maybe move a dime tomorrow. that would be a big move. it does say underlying what's going on in asia. there's big topics that they'll discuss. >> for sure. thank you both. good to see you. >> thanks. coming up next, we'll be right back with the closing countdown. >> and we're moments away from the earnings season beginning alcoa, number one out of the gate as we said. klaus kleinfeld will join us as soon as the numbers are

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here's what the trading chart looked like. it was on the open, off to the races. europe was strong despite weakness in asia. meandered the rest of the day and hovering at these levels here with a gain of 80 points. one dow component, alcoa, we're watching now, up about a percent, but that's only by a dime. up 1.3% given its price level right now. this is the company that'll be reporting earnings shortly. they're expecting 6 cents a share for the second quarter on revenue of $5.8 billion. peter costa, what do you make of the rally? when you couple it with the numbers we saw on friday, 140-point gain on the dow, and now up another 70, 80 points now. >> it's a continuation. i think people are resigning themselves to the fact that the fed will taper off some point, september, october, whatever. the economy's doing better. you know, the fed's put a lot of money into the system, and it seems to be working. why wouldn't you want to be in this market? >> i wonder if we aren't digesting the china story and

moving beyond it to some extent, and whether alcoa will be a test of that. >> alcoa definitely would be. i think with alcoa, a lot of people puts stock into it, but i'm not one of those people. they're just the first company that reports in the so-called earnings season. >> what's the peter costa barometer? >> jpmorgan, looking at the financials first. the retailers. and then, you know, after that, there's a mix of all technology stocks, but definitely starts with the financials. >> alcoa is the kind of company, caterpillar and alcoa, two worst performing companies this year, saying something about the nature of our economy, when the two biggest industrial-based companies in the dow are suffering so much right now. >> you have to remember something, caterpillar had a great move last year. and they -- they're -- a lot of the sales are hinged on europe and whatever the potential is in china. so, you know, we're moving into a new era now. now it's more u.s.-centric

companies. you look at -- to me, alcoa is a much broader play. i'm looking more as a u.s. play, is what i'm looking at. so, i mean, with alcoa and k caterpillar, they have a larger exposure overseas. >> is the weakness in the nasdaq today something you think that portends more broadly for overperformance of that index relative to others? >> it can. as far as i'm a -- i'm a new york person, so looking at the equity, nasdaq is much more tech-based, a lot of smaller-cap companies, which aren't participating in the rally as much. i'm looking more at the big high-cap stocks, and that's doing well. they're doing very well. >> catch you guys in a second. >> yes, see you in a few seconds, and we'll have the ceo of rbc to talk about the banks and the capital requirements that are coming. >> yes. >> chairman bernanke speaks on wednesday. we get the fed minutes on wednesday. could be market movers as well, right in. >> absolutely.

but i don't think there will be any surprise. i would actually be very surprised if he even intimated there was some sort of end to the qe 3. i think the fed has been very reluctant to give any timelines, specific timelines. i don't think that will change this week. >> you don't think they're troubled by the rise in yields -- in the treasury, especially on the long end, where the 10-year was at 2.74 overnight briefly. >> yeah, you know, 2.74, anything over 2.70, it's monumental. so i do think they're keeping an eye on that. do i think that's going to be a permanent situation? you know what? i'm not that sure. i don't think it's going to be. they're looking at the employment numbers. they're looking at what came out last friday. they'll look at jobless numbers this we're. they're looking at a much bigger picture. i think the treasuries is very significant, but to them, the main focus should be and continues to be on jobless -- the jobless situation. >> all right. well, it will be an eventful week as we get ready for earnings. thank you, peter. we'll see you later. we'll get the alcoa numbers, and we'll also talk with the ceo of

rbc as we get ready for the second hour of the "closing bell." stay tuned. [ bell sounds ] 4:00 p.m. and the dow and the s&p 500 starting the week with pretty solid gains. the nasdaq lagging behind, though. i'm kelly evans in for maria bartiromo, and also joining me is bill back from the floor. here's how we're finishing the day on wall street. the dow adding 88 points, off the session highs but still a solid day considering we had a triple-digit gain on friday. the nasdaq is the weaker of the bunch. it added about 5 points. the s&p 500, bill, up about 8. >> okay. alcoa kicking off the earnings season moments from now. still waiting for the numbers to come our way here. we'll have those results a