>> we're watching tomorrow ten years yield. it's going down a little bit. we're looking at yield stocks coming back. we're watching some volatility in the oil market in general and we think that silver and gold will come back. also, we're waiting for wednesday and friday. >> wow. >> gentlemen, thank you all for joining us today. >> he only used ten seconds for that one. >> that's it for us on closing bell. thank you. we'll both be here tomorrow. >> keep your guesses coming on the top state. "fast money" starts right now. >> welcome to the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square. i'm scott wapner in for melissa lee this evening. pete gentleman jar yan. earnings kicking off alcoa out with results on the bell.

the stock is on the move. revenue topping expectations. the stock is higher and how analysis gone into negative tear terror. people listening to the conference call and getting clues on where we are going to go through the earnings season. everyone on this desk is focused elsewhere for the real tell on earnings. let's find out the "fast money" bell earnings for the season. josh brown, people like to say alcoa isn't a target for anything. >> it's a bullish setup. expectations for earnings in general are extremely low. we're looking for growth of .8%, the lowest expectations since the q 3 of 2012. jpmorgan and i want to hear what caterpillar has to say. jpmorgan is important because they play virtually everywhere in the economy. they have important things to

say from consumer confidence to the mortgage business to capital markets. on cat i want to hear that china is not completely slipping into the abiz. between those names we will get color. expectations are low. >> it certainly is lately, karen, isn't it, keep expectations low and jump over a low bar. >> i think expectations are higher because the market has been strong recently. i agree with josh. jpmorgan will be important early in the season. it's it's the 12th and that will be a good important look at the economy. we'll see if there's loan groengts. we won't get the full effects of the housing market because that happens in the last week of may. it could be noisy but i think that will be an important tell for us. >> you guys both picking the banks. are the banks the most important sector at this time? >> it's a given we know the

financials are -- i think we are going to continue to get it but i'm looking at ge. this is the company in every part of the global economy. we'll see what's going on with the asset quality there but they've been telling investors that they are slimming down capital and give back to investors but they're a global economy and involved with health care, aviation. jeff on the tape today saying he's seeing europe possibly turning a corner. he has not been a big cheerleader for the global economy of the he's a big fan of the show. >> is that the real reason you're picking it? >> i know he's watching. >> i agree that ge is important but how can you say financials aren't the linchpin of this? if you took out what the financials are supposed to earn, earnings growth this quarter you're looking at negative 2%. they're supposed to have 17% interest earnings growth. that's the primary place you

need to focus on. >> people are acknowledging that the financials have returned to normalized earnings. outside of credit concerns coming out of mortgage rates, people are questioning global growth, china. they're questioning when europe will get out of a recession environment. given financials are strong and better footing, some of the technology stuff, look at that. >> certainly make it a broader advance to the markets, the ge and cat perform better than expectations. >> i'm not on the cat story. we've performed without them so we don't necessarily have to have cat pillar participating on the upward move. ge is one of these industrials because of the way they're spread away the environment including the financials. if you go to the direct financials city is probably the most important. the reason i say that is they are the biggest global bank.

they only have 42% exposure. the rest is ready out through europe and the asian parkts. star bucks, the reason i say that is it gives us a great read on the economy. 74% from north america. when we hear their numbers and we know something about how they're doing in china are people willing to pay up for that coffee in china. we know they have been paying for it here in north america. that tells us something we know from mr. bernanke which is the economy is getting better. maybe not hot but better. >> we're watching yields as well. as you all know june posting some of the biggest moves in interest rates since 1962. where are the opportunities in fixed income in this rising rate environment? joining us is rick reiter. he's chief investment offer in black rock. he has $46 million in investment management.

that's it? now there are notes going around the street predicting where the ten year is going to be by the end of 2013, into 2014 and beyo beyond. goldman the latest i saw three% in 2014 and four% in 2016. what's your best guess. >> when rates were significantly lower we thought it would end at 2 and a quarter. now i would agree the growth is better. the feds will pull back on what is distorting markets. we're going to end the year in two and three quarters. you've lifted the range of where the ten year is doing to be from when we were returning. i think we're going to hit three percent. you could hit it this year but certainly into next year. >> can we cope with that? if rates are going up for thing right reason? >> we think the fed was disto distorting the ten year by 105 basis points.

that's fair value. look at volatility. look at where the economy is, inflation is. can the system take it? for sure. i think the system is in pretty good shape relative to where it was two or three years ago. >> we've seen a lot of money come out of bods. last month it was a record outflow. that's not necessarily going back into equities. what is your call? people are waiting out the long part of the duration curve. do you think people are looking for better entry points back into separate product. this is where people can't even go into equities. >> today was a good day. i think you'll see rates stabilized. some of these asset classes that were distorted such as the high field market, i think municip s municipals. you're going to get a dynamic where people are going to feel more comfortable. i do think there's going to be rotation into equities.

i don't think it will be tremendous but people will start to come into those markets. you saw it today. >> one of the most controversial areas in fixed income is tips. it seems like there are such polarized opinions should we do tips, do they not, do they add value to the portfolio? >> there's decent value in tips now. you've priced in the fact that inflation is going to be docile for a while. now you finally backed up to levels that tips start to make sense again. i don't think inflation is going to be a significant issue going forward, but you're actually pricing that into where tips are today. i think finally you've got valuation that makes sense. >> where do you see i guess in the global investment landscape an opportunity to take risks? >> if you asked me four months ago or three months ago it was becoming very difficult. there was nothing that had value in the fixed income market. feds were pushing rates through

the keyhole. now you're seeing them come back again where there's value. we like some of the shorter duration, asset backs, commercial mortgage area tethered to real estate. now for the first time in a while today we're starting to look at increasing allocations to high yield, not just domestically, asia, some of the high yield is coming under significant pressure. munis as well. >> i was going to ask you in following this conversation what your take on munis is. so many people who watch this program and cnbc have been in munis are interested in them and are going to be told by their financial advisor that good value is in munis. >> i think there was a wakeup call about the impact sensitivity in portfolios. the long end of the treasure market was down total return 12% in a couple of months, three months. long credit was done 11%.

munis were down an extraordinary amount. now you're starting to get real value. people will start is to look at the muni area. we saw it actually. last week was a better week in munis. people now with these valuation -- again it would be nice to see stability. i don't think we are moving to a higher rate from where we are today. >> it's always great to talk to you. rick reader block rock co head. >> that's key that he doesn't think we're going to move that much higher. when we have moved significantly on the ten year but to say we are in two around a quarter, maybe a three percent rangings not markets blee different than where we are now. >> put it into perspective, right, historically ridiculously low relative to where we are and have been. >> that doesn't destroy the housing market. i know there's a big debate about that but i think this is good for the housing market. >> dell shareholder says he will vote against the michael dell and silver lake bid.

saying the offer is unreasonable and sets a bad precedent exploiting the price for the benefit of the ceo. he's saying of the icon proposal a reasonable way to exit at a better price for those who want to sell. they own nearly 13,000 shares of dell. let's go around the horn for reaction to this. josh? >> i think the thing with if you are an arbitrash guy you're in the stock. is this about getting michael dell to say, fine, 1550. the dell camp says there's no way they're going to do that. i have no insight as to whether or not that's poker or the reality. >> i guess they've gone on record and said that they will not raise their bid. july 18th is the shareholder vote. >> i kind of believe them because i would think when they were facing iss they have to put

their best case forward to win iss and they didn't bump in the face of that and they did win. >> there's also a difference in those who may vote against the dell bid doesn't necessarily mean that they vote for the icon bid. i think there are a lot of people who are fed up enough with what's been going on and how this whole thing was structured from the outset that they would vote against michael dell to make a statement not necessarily make up one for the other. >> the dell camp has to continually press this case, that, hey, the company is not really worth that much after all. what happens on the other side does that now become a team that can run this thing? does anyone care about anyone's input from that side of the fence. it's going to be bizarre if that deal doesn't go through. >> would anyone own the stock here or does it become

attracti attractive? >> until there's someone putting the kind of numbers on the board that gets the shareholders be able to cast a vote, right now we know where the bid is and it's still michael dell. >> the likelihood that it would go higher is unlikely. you're not seeing anything in the options markets to tell you that by the way this is going to be a higher bid. you haven't been seeing that and you would think at some point you would see some of that start to leak out. >> we mentioned the shareholder vote is july 18. alpha, our event is the 17th. i'll be speaking with carl icahn there. you do not want to miss that given the timing and the year that that gentleman has had. >> i love when you speak to him. >> so do i. >> before we head to break let's check on alcoa. we mentioned how the stock had been up, was trading lower and now it's unchanged. it was reaffirming the guidance.

it's one of those stocks closely watched over the next 24 hours, getting a good clue on what's going on in the global market for aluminum and other resources. coming up a look at whether it's too dangerous to haul crude oil by rail following the deadly train explosion in canada. we look at whether the incident could impact the future of the keystone pipeline. first from health care to the biggest retailers we sift through the top traders of the day. we look at how it's turning housing recovery on its head. >> reporter: just when it was all turning bullish suddenly a change in housing sentiment. we'll tell you about it coming up next on "fast money." understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade.

(announcer) scottrade. voted "best investment services company." hooking up the country whelping business run ♪ ♪ build! we're investing big to keep our country in the lead. ♪ load! we keep moving to deliver what you need. and that means growth, lots of cargo going all around the globe. cars and parts, fuel and steel, peas and rice, hey that's nice! ♪ norfolk southern what's your function? ♪ ♪ helping this big country move ahead as one ♪ ♪ norfolk southern how's that function? ♪

>> let's hit our top three trades for today. barron's saying it's insurer is better for health reform versus it's competitor. >> this is the time of charge. this stock is sick. >> sick good? >> sick is good. look, 11 times, 12 times earnings versus its peers at 15.

you've got a huge collection of businesses that wall street is ignoring that could act celebrate growth, drug treatment, et cetera. i think it's a buy. >> they also bought the largest health care provider in latin america and brazil. >> there's a lot of ways to win in this. >> retail is outperforming, macy's tiffany, wall wart. karen? >> macy's is one of my favorite names. those are three examples across the board, low end, high end. macy's you get a mix of both. that's my favorite name in the space. my one hesitation would be gas prices for walmart. that would be a headwind for them. if the economy is improving it's good for retail. >> aren't gas prices coming down? >> with the oil i don't know. maybe they are. i don't know. >> you guys p want to? >> no street fight here. i'm always up for one. that's why i was checking.

>> relax. finally price line.com, the stock catching an upgrade from overweight. >> if you go back to when they reported earnings they talked about international growth. they went up from 760 to 1,000. >> rising rates scaring home buyers and sellers. could they halt thes housing rebound. diana olick joins us with those details. >> reporter: just was home prices were rising and anyone was turning bullish bringing the sellers back, sendly sentiment turned because of rising mortgage rates. in the past month sentiment

turned. fewer people think now is a good time to buy or sell a house according to fanny's survey for june. those numbers had just hit a survey high in may thanks to rising home prices and record low mortgage rates. now mortgage rates have soared well over a full percentage point in the two months and 57% of responded to the survey expect it to go higher. on the bright side and in the short term this is likely to fuel more home sales because potential buyers are afraid that rates will go higher so they want to jump in now. that could be why we saw the pending home sales index, that is signed contracts in may, jump to a six year high. a lot of people are going to get priced out at these levels and that will push prices lower. one note, more people think rental rates are going to go higher because rets are still

strong and rental demanding strong. we're going to talk about that tomorrow when we get the quarterly report on apartment stats. it's online at cnbc.com. >> let's trade housing related names. builders, who is buying them? >> i'm buying cement. these guys after a bit of a pull back have interesting charts. on a valuation basis i like them. i think we're seeing infra tr k infrastructure in the world. >> why the hesitantsy in the banks? >> i like these names but you have to wait -- >> expect tagss. when you have two years being ratcheted higher -- >> is this doesn't mean they're done. i agree with you, i think there are names out there that you

would be attracted to for sure but you would want to see it on a pull back. whirlpool is down 20 bucks off highs. when you look at latin america and the u.s. markets the derivative names have the best opportunity. >> i want to go back to headquarters. josh lipton is watching intuitive surgical which is getting slammed. >> yes. they announced preliminary second quarter results and they are below analysts estimates. the company expects revenue of $575 million and net income of $160 million. the street won this revenue of $630 million. the ceo saying in a release that they are disappointed in their performance in the quarter particularly with respect to their capital sales in the u.s. over all the procedure performance was solid, the stock down more than 11%.

>> pete, the outlook? >> this is one of these names that i've always loved because i think they dwif you a great look. how are folks out there spending? are they willing to pay up? these machines are not cheap. these devices are very expensive. if they are willing to buy them. procedures are fine to address that but are they able to sell expensive machines. that could be a problem and that could say a lot about the economy right now. that would give me he is tentsy. >> that's a huge miss. >> they had regulatory issues. >> that's something that was brought up. i don't know that that was related to this. certainly this gives you a parameter. >> it doesn't do anything to install confidence after it was shaken due to what herb greenberg has been looking into. >> you don't go into the -- >> with that kind of a cloud there's no reason to jump in. >> i agree.

>> plumbing pc sales may not be the death nail for this chip maker. two traders, pete and josh, square off over intel in a "fast money" street fight. analysts who believes apple cut its iphone production plans for the second half of year. pete, that's not good for your second half story. we'll back. looking at covered call strategies to generate income? with fidelity's options platform, we've completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies... to get a list of equity options... evaluate them with our p&l calculator...

and execute faster with our more intuitive trade ticket. i'm greg stevens, and i helped create fidelity's options platform. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. and then another. and another. and if you do it. and your friends do it. and their friends do it... soon we'll be walking our way to awareness, support and an end to alzheimer's disease. and that? that would be big. grab your friends and family and start a team today. register at alz.org

so wof the house?hink it's got a great kitchen, but did you see the school rating? oh, you're right. hey babe, i got to go. bye daddy! ...but what about when my parents visit? ok.

i just love this one... and it's next to a park i love it i love it too. here's our new house... daddy! you're not just looking for a house. you're looking for a place for your life to happen. zillow >> welcome back. another quick check on shares of dell as we follow the battle for that company. earlier told you that pzena investment management was going to vote against the michael dell silver lake bid. that according to richard pzena.

he owned 13 million shares of dell earlier. we said he owned 13,000. that's our mistakes. voting against michael dell and silver lake. intel getting a downgrade. ever core partners cutting their rate krieting plumbing sales. let's get to our street fight. pete, you're up. >> when you look at intel a lot of people have prema turl said the pc is said. it's not dead. it's dying. they have deny a good job of addressing this. that's what they're doing with the adam chip. that's where they're going to go. by doing so that is going to lower some of the margins, some of the cost efficiency they're looking for as they go into a less better market when it comes to the margins when you are getting into the mobile space and don't forget about the idea of networking.

when you are getting into the networking space that's three times the size of the pc market. that's where i think they can get inroads. on the pull back this is a great opportunity to buy. >> pete, you look great. >> i feel like a million bucks. >> if your case is predicated on them, here's the thing. it's not quite as good when you have the pc side sliding at a faster rate. essentially call they're doing is can ballization. margins are not as great and if you read the analysts report today they don't see earnings through this year and next year even if the company is successful. it's not a terrible stock but frankly, i don't think this is investable. >> you talk about this analyst today -- >> two other analysts in the last couple of months. >> they have been upgraded when

you look at may and june. this analyst the track record is not good. >> pcs are a dying industry. intel makes -- >> we got it. we got it. >> that's a strong statement. i don't think this thing is investable. >> almost five% dividend field and a valuation that reflectis the fact that -- >> it doesn't reflakt that. >> pull back in this market in this valuation with a five percent dividend yield intel is far from dead. they're in mobile way too late. i agree with a lot of points josh made but buying the stock after a pull back with that valuation and dividend is something i can do. >> who made the argument? >> the key is buying tre pull back. it's fallen but the fear indicator or the volatility in

the stock has not risen or exploded. we saw that day. one of the huge trades, 6700 contracts were sold on the july 24 put. basically somebody willing to get long at 2308 as a break e even point. maybe it's not going to rally above 24 but they want to dip in and buy in to this pull back, slightly to the upside. people trying to buy levels and dips and get into this name. >> tell us who you think won. use the hashtag bull or bear. the dangers of transporting crude by rail following the deadly train blast in canada. >> the way to transport petrol chemicals, oil and natural gas

is by pipeline. keystone pipeline should be approved in the morning. >> i thought he said pop eyes. >> that was oil tycoon t boone pickens. up next a look at whether oil companies will reconsider their dependance on trains. we'll back after this. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪

vietnam in 1972. [ all ] fort benning, georgia in 1999. [ male announcer ] usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection and because usaa's commitment to serve military members, veterans, and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve.

>> welcome back to "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site. we continue to follow the story of that deadly train explosion up in canada and how it could possibly affect the energy industry and the way it transport crude. let's turn to tom petrie. mr. petrie, welcome to the show. good to have you on this evening. >> thanks, scott. >> it's always easy i guess after tragedies like this to say it's too dangerous to transport crude by rail but do the facts bear that out? >> you make a very good point. this is a true tragedy. it's a freak accident, but in fact, the record of railroads

over the last decade has been spectacular. every year further improvement in safety. i think there will be actions taken to make sure this kind of accident doesn't happen again. there's a roll for transport of oil on an on going basis. this is the biggest surprise in the over in the north american supply for oil in the last decade. it's a major plus. >> you think pictures like this on television, the headlines and photos and newspapers could help shape public opinion in the debate between pipeline versus rail transportation. would you agree? >> absolutely. there's a role for both. pipe lines are good for going from point a to b. the rail delivery, the surprise is how much it's been embraced by shipping companies, the

producers and the receiving companies, the refineries. it goes from point a to b, c, d, e and f. at different times in the economic cycle or the seasonability cycle there's a multiplicity of delivery flexibility is a big plus. huge surprise. if you asked me a year ago, a year and a half ago, did you think rail would be embraced the way it has by the users on both ends of it, i'm surprised by it and i think it will survive this. this kind of tragedy has to be avoided at all -- very high costs and it will be used by those who want to oppose fosle fuels in general but i think there is a real role for both pipe lines and rail in the delivery system for this transformed outlook for oil in the u.s. >> mr. petrie, it's karen. let me ask you something.

do you think in the short term it's going to be more expensive to move things by rail because of additional insurance that they might need or some fear on the core go owner's part to want to use an alternative? >> yeah. there probably will be some, karen, but that's not going to be a big factor. frankly, the biggest factor is the different shall that's drinking between brent and wti. remember this gave rise to the shipping by rail because we had a 12 to $20 differential. it really takes away the incentive and that's the bigger factor to watch. >> let me ask you quickly, given your experience and the kind of firm that you work at now, where do you think crude is going? is it going to stay over a 100 bucks or is it ripe for a selloff? >> i don't think it's long term

sustainable. i character size it as a cumulative demand phase. when you are above 100 we're seeing the highs and i think we'll drift somehow lower. 80% of the time i think we'll be between 80 and 100. that other 20% of the time i'd worry about testing lower than higher. >> does that mean if your firm cons traits on energy, what kind of plays are you guys making? what kind of investments look attractive to you with a thesis of oil going back down? >> well, i'm a banker so i'm not making stock recommendations, but within that 80 to 100 range there is lots of good things happening in the upstream with the producers and the trance makes of the mid stream to bring the crude oil to the markets. they stay healthy in the 80 to $100 range. if we test lower, some of that begins to dry up and may restore

refining margin sz. we have had a good period for refineries because of the brent differential. >> nice to speak with you. thanks for spending some time with us this evening. >> pleasure to be here. >> time now for pops and drops, the big movers of this day. pea body energy popping. >> great day for the coalls across the board. people think there will be more projects. the whole space i think is overdone. >> netflix? >> when you look at cbs and the extension agreement that was signed, we talk about with netflix they have got content. this stock is $233 near highs. >> karen, well point. >> update for stocks not surprising well point is up also

in the united barrons article the group moves together. >> qualcomm. >> we were in the stock last year. it's a strong name as a mobile player. >> i throw it up for grabs. >> josh grabbed that one. >> should i talk about it? please talk about it. thank you. >> okay. so, qualcomm looks sloppy, under 60. it's a victim to whatever is ailing samsung and apple. it's not a name you should touch. >> you want to read the tease? barns and noble. that company's ceo has resigned. they say ceo william lynch has resigned effective immediately. that stock is down two and a half percent after hours. i would suspect that once this filter is out a little more thoroughly into the marketplace

that the stock could be a little more active than this particular move. >> it's one of these situations where when somebody steps down like this there's always that immediate reaction and in most cases to sell selling the stock, the nervousness, why did he step down. the timing becomes part of the issues. people will react before they think. right now the reaction is the selling of the stock. >> wasn't lynch there because of his skills? >> and he was also the architect of the microsoft deal which was important to them. he has a bunch of things going on although i do think it's negative. >> the nook failed to keep up with competitors. that bore out more in the most recent earnings report. you've got the kindall and other devices, the mini ipad, it's hard to keep up the net loss more than doubled in recent periods.

things haven't been going well for a while. >> this thing has had a good run. this is a dangerous time when you have another leadership vacuum. >> then you have leonard vish yoe who has not been a shareholder in ways. he did float the idea of buying the bricks and mortar stores and then we didn't hear from him. i don't know what he'll do now. it's interesting. >> is this another dell situation where he says all right that's it. let me get real financing together and steal this thing? >> i don't know. we'll be following it tomorrow. the ceo of barns and noble resigns. throw up the after hours chart just to button that up. again that gentleman is out. the stock is moving after hours and likely moving again tomorrow morning as we look at it right there. there's a good look for you of what the stock is doing after hours. coming up the trade shaping

up to be the biggest attention grabbers tomorrow and why fewer iphones are coming off the assembly lines and what this could mean for investors up next. out there owning it. the ones getting involved and staying engaged. they're not afraid to question the path they're on. because the one question they never want to ask is "how did i end up here?" i started schwab for those people. people who want to take ownership of their investments, like they do in every other aspect of their lives. your chance to rise and shine. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you can do just that. with our visionary cloud infrastructure, global broadband network and custom communications solutions,

your business is more reliable - secure - agile. and with responsive, dedicated support, we help you shine every day of the week. always go the extra mile. to treat my low testosterone, i did my research. my doctor and i went with axiron, the only underarm low t treatment. axiron can restore t levels to normal in about 2 weeks in most men. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18 or men with prostate or breast cancer. women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant and children should avoid contact where axiron is applied as unexpected signs of puberty in children or changes in body hair or increased acne in women may occur. report these symptoms to your doctor. tell your doctor about all medical conditions and medications. serious side effects could include increased risk of prostate cancer; worsening prostate symptoms; decreased sperm count; ankle, feet or body swelling; enlarged or painful breasts; problems breathing while sleeping; and blood clots in the legs.

common side effects include skin redness or irritation where applied, increased red blood cell count, headache, diarrhea, vomiting, and increase in psa. ask your doctor about the only underarm low t treatment, axiron. wi drive a ford fusion. who is healthier, you or your car? i would say my car. probably the car. cause as you get older you start breaking down. i love my car. i want to take care of it. i have a bad wheel - i must say. my car is running quite well. keep your car healthy with the works. $29.95 or less after $10 mail-in rebate at your participating ford dealer. so you gotta take care of yourself? yes you do. you gotta take care of your baby? oh yeah!

>> shares of apple under pressure yet again today after a report claimed the company was cutting its iphone production forecast for the second half of the year by 20%. we have the analysts who made that call, brian blair of wedge partners joins us on the phone. brian, what leads you to leave that they cut their iphone production? where are the facts? >> apple has about 20 component suppliers that fell into the iphone. so when they make a dramatic change in their forecast they need to let the suppliers know. this is coming from some of our supply chain work out of china and taiwan let us know that there has been a roughly this kind of change from june to december, a 20% cut of what they're telling their suppliers to be ready for. >> what does not exactly mean?

you're putting out a note that could move a stock somewhat substantially. what does that mean? >> you don't get exact numbers but you get proximate numbers. what i wrote was that we believe the forecast has been between 115 to 120 million. we believe there is been a 20% haircut. that's for the period from june to december. that includes the forthcoming 5 s as well as the 5 and the 4 s. >> that includes potential new models. is it possible they would be switching component suppliers or not likely? >> i think most of the component suppliers i think will stay the same. for the new low cost phone i think it's going to be similar to what the current iphone 4 looks like but with a plastic

back instead of glags. that will allow them to sell it at a lower cost. one of the things i wrote today is i think they're going to do a phone for the first time for china mobile that will be based on the tdsma model. otherwise i think it's going to be the same. one of the ways they offer a lower cost phone is if they do use the same components because those are over four years old and they can get them at cheaper prices allowing them to sell the phone at a lower cost. >> why would they cut production of a lower cost iphone if that could be their bread and butter? >> i don't know how the cuts break up across the models. let's assume there are four different models that we see this fall, the 5 s the s and the lower cost phone. the cuts might be at the 5 s level. i don't have that level of detail but it's going to come down to they're cutting units

because they're reacting from samsung. samsung is a market leader and even though they put up a big number for galaxy units i believe it was lower than they thought. we believe they had hoped to sell 15 million instead of 10 million. there are lots of signs pointing to high end growth and apple i think is reacting to that. >> samsung was out last night with the s 4s say down. samsung is down 20% in the last month. that's a trade you stay on. the hardware and the hand set makers are a place where the trade is very long in the tooth. >> i think there was a great comment about qualcomm. i think you have to stay on the side lines until we get a sense of what these cuts means to the provider. >> thanks. >> up next your top trades for

tomorrow. we're back after this.

in today's markets, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price -- maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.

>> time now for fast forward. time to hit the top trades for

tomorrow. first up general mills holding its fiscal 2014 investor day. shares up more than 20% this year. pete? >> one of those low growth companies. i think they have had their big run for the year. i'd stay back but listen to this call. >> the china data coming out tonight. cpi and ppi. >> these guys can supply to this economy that's going down the hill but the credit crunch is something that's playing out right now. ultimately china where a lot of people are waiting for growth is not getting it. watch for export numbers tuesday night. >> finally blackberry holding its annual shareholder meeting tomorrow. the company is sure to face tough questions from investors because shares are down more than 30% in the past month.

karen? >> apple has trouble and samsung has trouble it's hard to see that blackberry has great things only going for it. i don't think the shareholders meeting itself is much but i'd stay away. >> there's almost nothing they can say given what they did to shareholders in the last week and a half. >> pete? >> i still like this name. i actually bought a call spread the other day. i'm against the rest of the panel. i think there's a turn. >> one guy calling it a dog and the other guy actually bought it. >> i think it's game over. i got to tell you. >> i don't think it's game over and i actually think they have plenty of different reasons why the valuation breakup is one of those reasons. >> it's 10 bucks a share on a breakup. you don't have a lot of down side. >> tweets now, some of the tweets that you have sent to our crew today. first up, what do you think of the home builders, especially len nar.

we talked about that little bit. >> i think they all move together. i don't know how much it matters in general. the home builders runup was so brief. i wouldn't jump in. >> give me a read on gender act. >> they priced a huge secondary last week. probably in front of itself. be patient and it will get a little cheaper. >> we'll give you your final trades and what you need to be watching tomorrow. clients are always learning more to make their money do more. (ann) to help me plan my next move, i take scottrade's free, in-branch seminars... plus, their live webinars. i use daily market commentary to improve my strategy. and my local scottrade office guides my learning every step of the way.

because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade... ranked "highest in customer loyalty for brokerage and investment companies." and then another. and another. and if you do it. and your friends do it. and their friends do it... soon we'll be walking our way to awareness, support and an end to alzheimer's disease. and that? that would be big. grab your friends and family and start a team today. register at alz.org

since aflac is helping with his expenses while he can't work, he can focus on his recovery. he doesn't have to worry so much about his mortgage, groceries, or even gas bills. kick! kick... feel it! feel it! feel it! nice work! ♪ you got it! you got it! yes! aflac's gonna help take care of his expenses. and us...we're gonna get him back in fighting shape. ♪ [ male announcer ] see what's happening behind the scenes at aflac.com. [ hooking up the countryat's hwhelping business run ♪nes ♪ trains! they haul everything, safely and on time. ♪ tracks! they connect the factories built along the lines. and that means jobs, lots of people, making lots and lots of things. let's get your business rolling now, everybody sing. ♪ norfolk southern what's your function? ♪

♪ helping this big country move ahead as one ♪ ♪ norfolk southern how's that function? ♪ >> we've tallied the results and you said pete, the bull, won the debate. >> it was a good battle, my friend. >> take that, mr. uninvestable. >> that's crazy. >> let's go around the horn. pete you're up first. >> goodyear tires. >> tim? >> petro brass. >> karen? >> live nation. it's had a really good run and time to take some money off the table. >> charge enough for ticket prices, don't they?

>> regional banks have been screaming. my favorite is zion. as long as it stays above 30 there's no reason the stock can't keep going. it's an under . >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, just trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain you. it's too teach you. call me. 1-800 h.cnbc. every night i come out here and help you find well quality stocks well worth earning,