i've never been more jealous in my life. i want to totally honest about that. >> reporter: ha ha. >> who has a better job better than jane wells? who's better than jane? thank you very much. love it. thank you for watching "street signs." free seabreachers for everybody that watches the show tomorrow. not true. "closing bell" starts tomorrow. hey, welcome to "closing bell." i'm bill griffeth here at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm kelly evans in for maria bartiromo. >> happy monday. >> indeed, especially with what's happening in the markets. not huge moves on the indexes. it could still be enough for new all-time highs for the dow and for the s&p, bill. >> mcdonald's is the big drag today for the dow, taking about 19 points out of the dow with that earnings report. we'll talk more about that coming up a little later. by the way, we're on royal baby watch. >> yes, yes, we are. >> former london correspondent here --

>> who couldn't -- who couldn't be less enthused about it. >> she's betting boy. >> i am. you're saying it's going to be a girl? >> i'm betting girl. >> that must mean something in terms of the markets. i don't note what. gold is up, bill, as it's had its day since june 2013. >> and we'll be watching netflix. about an hour from now. the stock is trading lower, but up nearly 200% for the year. it will be out with what many say is a crucial earnings report. we'll have a team of top analysts to tell you. julia is moderating the conference call tonight. she'll be here to preview the questions she'll be asking the question coming up. >> that's right. and more fallout after the s.e.c. charles stevie cohen. if it's such a minor charge, how come it could potentially put a huge figure like cohen out of business? the co-author of the dodd-frank financial regulation bill barney frank will comment on that. >> that's right. and here's how we stand, though. we haven't moved much in terms

of volatility. the dow was up 37 -- excuse me, up 32, down 27 at the peak and valley. we're right in the middle of the range, up 7 1/2 points at 15,551. by the way, if we're up five points today, an all-time high. >> that's right. up about six for the time being. >> mcdonald's will be making the call today. nasdaq trading higher. the dow is the lagger of the major averages. the dow is up 14 points now at 3,601. technology a bright spot for the markets today. and the s&p, any positive close for the s&p will be another all-time high. up almost 4 points right now. so with the dow and s&p trying to hit all-time highs today, let's talk about this market in today's "closing bell exchange," with danielle hughes, anthony chin, and steven wood from russell investments and bob pisani on the floor here of the new york stock exchange with us here today. how are we doing so far with earnings? >> we're doing pretty well. that's 71% of the companies that have reported already have beat

expectations. which is great. kind of what we were expecting at divine. we were thinking we would come in a little bit better. but what's helped this has been the massive inflow of funds from investors into the global equity markets. about almost $20 billion last week came into global equity funds, which is a huge, huge number. i think that that probably mitigated some of the not-so-great news we heard from microsoft, ge, google, and even today mcdonald's, as well. >> anthony, the fund flows have picked up. is there or isn't there a great rotation? it doesn't matter. >> i think the great rotation is coming, and, in fact, believe it or not, from a historically perspective, stocks are cheap. if i use $110 on s&p earnings, that means my forward p/e ratio is around 15.4. so relative to history, these equity -- this equity market is still relatively inexpensive. >> steven wood, i mean, i'm sure you're guffawing, the dow and

s&p at new highs, and the russell has been at highs it seems forever. this has been a huge small cap rally. >> and the russell 1000, large-cap space, too. i mean, i would agree that the valuations aren't stretched. they're not overly cheap. could we be lower than 110 on s&p, but it's competitive in that area, and i think the great rotation has yet to happen. we've got a negative print in fixed income for a lot of investors in q2. if they get another one in q3, negative print, that might create impetus from fixed into equities. so there might be, even with margins flattening out, revenues flattening out, earnings flattening out, that could be a lift underneath equities. you're right, small cap space. but if you look defensive dynamic within the russell 1000 or 2000, it's neck-and-neck right now. this market rally has been largely defensive and -- >> right. >> bob, isn't it the case if you take out financials, it's a different picture for earnings season, because they've contributed a lot to this story. >> right. financials are the all-stars this quarter and they've been up

every single day, and today again, all of the big-cap financials are on the upside. tech has been the big disappointment, obviously google and microsoft. but other disappointments there. and industrials are doing okay. so we've got, for example, lennox today, ge was okay, dover was okay, interesting here what ingersoll rand has to say. so industrials look okay. i think the big point is, and i agree with danielle, money is coming in a big way. $4 billion almost in inflows in the stock. mutual funds last week. the biggest inflow since the beginning of the year. and i think that's the important thing. i think that's what's driving things right now. i am a little worried about the valuations. moore downgraded honeywell, which had a fabulous report last week, 17 times forward earnings, kind of stretched. that's the thing to worry about. stock prices are high. >> we have talked often, dani, about the lack of participation of the little guy. does this signal the end of the rally? >> i do think we still have more to go. i believe that, truthfully, we haven't even seen the beginning

of the inflows we'll see from investors, because i -- you know, we're coming out of a 30-year change in what's happening in bonds. however, there's going to be a lot of bumps along the road. we have a big week this week. about a third of the s&p 500 report this week. 50% of the materials of the s&p 500, and 50% of the industrials in the s&p 500 are reporting this week. and they have been a real drag in terms of what we're expect g expecting. so we're going to see some bumps in the road, i think, this week. >> anthony, has there been a sea change, just to borrow a term. you look at the 10 year, below 2.5%, no indication, at least the last couple of weeks, the big move we saw up about a percentage point from the lows this spring, will continue. if anything, it has more room at the top. >> i think that was a bit exaggerated, but i think everybody knows what the direction of long-term interest rates is, and that is higher. over the next year, two years, three years, interest rates will gradually move higher. that rotation will take place. those inflows that danielle is talking about will continue.

because we will see negative interest rates go up. the math is clear. interest rates go up, the value of bonds go down. especially when you have long-duration bonds. >> why are oil and gold going up? i don't think -- the short answer is, the lower dollar. but why is that happening right now, do you think? >> there's a lot of reasons. the lower dollar is part of it. another reason is that gold may have been largely oversold to the extent that you see some of the emerging markets that are big consumers of oil may be recovering at some point. oil may be leading that charge already. but by and large, as global economic growth picks up, it's only natural that oil prices will, in fact, move higher. and that, i think, is what the signal is telling you. >> if we have, though, steven, the 10-year moving lately lower, it sounds like a quantitative easing trade. >> abe mnomics, they may be discussing the tapering, but waur not looking at it anytime soon. maybe the end of 2015. it's not an inflation scare.

interest rates are normalizing, which means that the fed gets close to 2% target, people are going to need to look at multiasset, globally diversified portfolios with risk assets in there. >> to back you up. you started off with japan. you say investors even here need to be paying attention to what's coming out of that country. >> what's happening in japan is huge. the chinese slowdown, the japanese qe is big. europe is going to have to deal with qe, an sterilized qe, starting to print money. u.s. has been in it for well over five years. brazil, india, inflation problems. i think we're still in the beginning innings of a global qe at the end. >> bob, more earnings as dani was pointing out. netflix tonight. >> yeah, and having julia moderate, a tremendous move. that's somewhat historic. looking forward to hearing that exchange of what's going on there. the industrials are really going to be big this week, because if we continue to get fairly good numbers, like we did from

honeywell last week, that will offset the weakness in technology, and it will add fuel to the idea that financials are not the only thing out there. remember, the baron's cover talking about europe making a comeback. i'm skeptical of that. i'm certainly hopeful. china stabilized. japan is looking better. portugal has a stable government now. if you get stability through the summer, you may not get a summer sell-off. we haven't had it yet. we're still no indication that it is led in that direction. >> dani, the lack of summer sell-off, do you think, yes, there's a qe bid in this market, just coming from other countries other than the fed? >> absolutely. and we haven't seen any volume in this market. we've talked about how we've seen resiliency, but it hasn't been a volume-backed resiliency. and until that happens, i think there are a lot of people on the sidelines. >> before we go, boy or girl? >> girl. >> girl all the way. >> i'll go girl. >> everyone goes girl. >> what is that about? >> i'm happy with the contrarian player here. >> bob? >> girl, too. >> oh, come on.

>> i guess i want it to be a girl. >> you look -- you're so dapper today. you look like a butler at buckingham palace today. what is that about? >> i'll have the chalk board to make the announcement, too, when the girl comes out. >> yes, on baby watch. thank you all. see you later. let's talk about the huge rally in oil prices, taking a little breather today. gold has been perking up. sharon epperson has that for us. sharon? >> reporter: look how perky gold is now. looking at gold prices above $1,300 an ounce. gold prices have broken above the 50-day moving average. and breaking up the key technical levels is part of the reason why more traders have piled into gold here. as you heard earlier, yes, many said it was oversold. and that short covering is also contributing to the rally. and we're watching, as well, the weakness in the dollar. the fiscal demand in asia picking up, as well as institutional buyers piling in. now, it's a different story that we're seeing in the oil market. we have seen a mixed market here in oil. but we did see both benchmarks, the wti and the brent contract

reach parity, first time in nearly three years. and the key session now is whether or not oil is able to regain the momentum it had last week and reach toward the $110 barrel level, bill. back to you. >> boy or girl, sharon? >> girl. >> oh, all right. >> yeah, sharon. all right. me, sharon. steve liesman. >> all right. heading toward the gold, 50 minutes left in the trading session. dow is up six points. again, mcdonald's, we'd be up about 25 minutes. >> exactly. the company is the worst performing dow stock thanks to less than stellar earnings this morning. and now they're predicting a challenging year ahead. we'll find out why mcdonald's in particular may be seeing unhappy meals. and the street is anxiously awaiting netflix's earnings report. remember, the best performing s&p 500 stock so far this year, up about 185%. we'll have the analysis and numbers you need right here on "closing bell."

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the s&p 500 and dow are struggling to close at another all-time high. josh lipton breaks down today's big movers. hey, josh. >> reporter: hey, kelly. yeah, the first session of the week almost history. let's review some of the big movers. first up, yahoo! slipping in today's trade. yahoo! will now buy 40 million of its shares owned by dan loeb's 3.40 million bought at 13.50, told at 29.11. total profit $624 million. a masterful trade. that's our own krim kramer put it. we're watching gold today. the metal shining, settling above the 50-day moving average

for the first time since november 2012. miners are all responding, all well in the green. on the other hand, homebuilders not working. they fall unexpectedly by 1.2% month over month. analysts say it is certainly not a sign that the housing recovery is in trouble, but sales activity could come under pressure in the months ahead. they say dhi, lennar, pulte all lower. we're also keeping a close eye on microsoft. remember last friday, the stock got killed the day after the company posted disappointing results. the stock dropped 12%. today, though, moving higher. and we'll end on mcdonald's, the golden arches disappoint, saying full-year results will be challenged. some analysts i spoke to this morning were especially disappointed with the u.s., thought we would see traction here on product innovations. now analysts saying it raises questions about how successful its efforts have been. bill, back to you. >> yeah, let's talk about that, josh. what's going on with mcd's?

it's warning the rest of the year will be challenging? >> that's right. with us now, andy from jeffries, sam from qsr magazine, and also joining from the cnbc news line. guys, thank you very much for joining us. look, andy, let's start with you. i guess the question comes down to this -- is this a story about mcdonald's misfiring, or is there trouble here for the restaurant sector more broadly? >> i think it's a little bit of both, actually. mcdonald's has gotten more innovative with some premium products in addition to their value message this year on dollar menu. and it is -- it is helping keep u.s. comps basically flattish. but i think the competitive environment has gotten more challenging. you've seen some better product news and operations from some regional and national competitors. and pricing's becoming more difficult. so i think when you put all those factors together, mcdonald's is really struggling just to kind of keep its head above water here. >> sam, what's your version of what's wrong with mcdonald's, and why now? what happened?

>> yeah, i agree with that. right now, you're seeing the crop of competitors come up, the so-called fast casual like chipotle, panera, they're stealing market share. i think mcdonald's is having trouble because some of the new menu options they put out, there were definitely premium, like the angus burgers, the chicken mcwrap, but now, the millennials are gravitating to the newer concepts because of the overall concept that the experience offers. >> you know, the company over the last quarter has had one beat. they've had one meet and three misses. is there a communication problem here? why is the market basically taking this long to catch up, otherwise, with the fact that perhaps mcdonald's, there hasn't been there as much as meets the eye? >> sure, well, our numbers have been below the street. we have a hole rating on the stock with the target price of low 90s. the results have been very much in line with what we've expected. i think that with mcdonald's,

given their success over the last decade, and i think you have to put that into context here, this business has been so successful with the turnaround starting in the early 2000s that volumes now are at amazingly high levels. so it gets incrementally harder to drive volumes. you've had a few other things like margins and foreign currency pressures here recently that have probably taken the street a little bit by surprise, although, again, i think the company has been cautionary. they don't provide annual guidance. so that does leave a little bit of a wider range, you know, for which expectations can kind of roam. >> yeah, sam, what about the overseas business? we mentioned -- josh highlighted the u.s. was in a special disappointment, a lot of analysts were expecting more from the sales here. what about overseas? how are they doing? >> it seems they're doing a lot better overseas, at least they're not really starting to falter like they are here stateside. and part of that is because overseas they're still is a

demand for the american product. remember, they're not in every country. they still have some markets they can grow into. and with that demand of the other countries for american products, i think they're going to succeed with that, whereas here in the united states, there might be some waning interests, maybe as consumers gravitate toward newer, more exciting brands, they're forgetting about the old stalwarts. >> sam, speaking of the quick-serve space that you know so well, is this about wendy's introducing the pretzel bacon cheeseburg cheeseburger? is it about the customer mcdonald's needs to go after? what's changing here? >> what's changing is it's becoming more possible for consumers to access tasty premium foods at a cheaper price point and they're willing to go up to the $8, $9 price point that chipotle is offering and panera, the other brands. now, consumers want bolder flavor, some healthier food, but also demanding customization. chipotle is succeeding so much

because what they give you this great product you can build yourself. and so, a lot of the newer brands, what you're seeing, they're giving you the ability to pick your ingredients to make it as healthy or unhealthy as you want, and pick as bold or unbold the flavors you want. >> okay, andy, finally to you, have you changed your price target or the view on the stock in light of the quarter? >> no, we haven't, given where we are, our estimates did come down a little bit. but it basically is the same. we believe street numbers have to come down closer to where we are. we think the stock maybe with midsingle-digit growth deserves a market multiple, maybe around 15 times, or, as i mentioned, low 90s. we continue to be neutral on mcdonald's. >> okay. panera, wendy's, their shares are up. the restaurant market generally is mixed. thank you both. >> thank you. >> i don't know where i was, but i'm found of the snack wraps they have at mcdonald's. >> my sister is probably the biggest consumer. >> wherever i was, maybe in

connecticut, they had gotten rid of the beef snack wrap. they only had chicken. >> that was a disappointment? >> huge disappointment. >> bring them back. message to the company. up seven points, the dow. we're in record territory for both that and the s&p right now as we head towards the close. about 40 minutes of trading left. >> while mcdonald's was weighing on indexes, toyota has been a red-hot stock, up nearly 40%. up next, we'll look at if it can get hit as a bellwether claim goes to court. and shares are nothing compared to netflix's, up 184% so far this year. the company's got a lot of at stake when it reports earnings after the bell tonight. we will have the instant analysis of whether the big bet on original content has paid off. that's coming up. [ male announcer ] ok, here's the way the system works.

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welcome back. as with the rest of the world, we're on baby watch, waiting for the birth of prince william and kate middleton's baby. 2 million pounds have been wagered in england. on this baby. >> you know, when you talk about the stimulus or lack thereof, the royal birth is going to provide this morning, i just had a fun client note, looking at this thing, look, there won't be much of an impact, but looking at betting houses, sales of alcohol, no public holidays, so the impact will be muted. >> the odds-on favorite on the bets is for a girl. that's making me nervous now.

everybody is picking girl except you. you may be right after all. we'll see. >> sharon and steve. >> alexandra is the favorite name for girl. james the favorite name for boy. >> now, apparently, it took them, what, six days for diana to announce -- >> the birth of prince william. >> -- yeah. >> they named harry right away. it didn't matter. >> we'll just leave that there. now remember, the claims that toyota cars were accelerating on their own? well, most of them were settled, but many did not. the first toyota unintended acceleration lawsuit heads to court today. knbc's jacob rascon is following this story and joins us with more. jacob? >> reporter: that's right. many lawsuits have been brought to toyota about these unintended acceleration incidents, but all have been settled. this will be the first one that will go before a jury. there are 80 cases now across the country in state courts filed. this one is l.a. superior court will be the first one to go

before a jury. the jury selection begins today on that one. in this incident in upland, california, where i am, this was back in 2009, in the summer, a woman named norico uno, 66 years old, was coming down and the accelerator, an attorney and the family says, was defective, stuck, went up to 100 miles per hour, crashed, passed away. a witness said she tried to stop, but couldn't do anything. toyota said they inspected the car. they said there was no defect. the attorney for the family of the woman who died said this will be an issue of why they don't have a brake override system. according to the outcome of this case, many will be looking on with cases in other state courts across the country seeing how this one will turn out. as i said, the jury selection beginning today in l.a. superior court. and the case is expected to last about two months. for now, reporting live in upland, jacob rascon, let's go back to you. >> all right, jacob, thank you very much.

appreciate it. let's talk more about toyota, despite the potential legal trouble, shares of the company are flirting with all-time highs. so is the automaker a good by for your portfolio? let's start talking numbers on toyota today. on the technical side, carter wirth, chief market technician at oppenheimer, and steve cortese. and, carter, we realize, it's a thinly traded stock, low volume, so it will probably be volatile at the same time. do you like the chart? >> (unintelligible) -- underlying in japan liquid. in this case, as you cited, it's very close to all-time highs. that's what's appealing here. the all-time high was back in february 2007 at 138 on the adr, symbol tm, and here we are at 130. what's most important is a lot of momentum in the group. if you were to look at how this stock is tracking with ford and general motors, for instance, these are all north by northeast and up to the right. some of the best moves in markets history shows when you have an individual stock in a group that's also acting well,

and that is the case in point here, at least by our work, we like toyota on the long side. >> okay. >> if you see a comparative chart, it's quite well how well it's done compared to the s&p. >> okay. steve? >> bill, you know, i think that really it's important to look at what is toy great that really. it's not an auto stock right now. it's a stealth currency play. and so, we just saw carter's chart. i'd like to see his chart and raise him a chart. i have toyota motors versus dollar-yen. if you look back for most of this year, what toyota was really about was dollar-yen. in other words, as the yen was weakening, toyota was prospering, because it was easier for them to export cars around the world. the problem with that, the dollar-yen has stopped rallying, it's stalling in recent weeks. having trouble against 100, 101. if the yen strengthens from here, as i believe it will, then toyota will have a very hard time exporting to the rest of the world. that's what matters to them, because the japanese market is in dismal shape, that economy on the whole, so they must export, and it's really a currency play, and i think a dangerous one. >> you know the rules on talking

numbers. if the fundamental guy shows charts, the technical guy can start talking fundamentals. >> so the fundamental pushback is honda is also a japanese stock, which should presumtively be encountering the same currency issues, if you will, or tailwind. and this stock, toyota, is crushing honda motor. and so, obviously, there are currency issues by investing in the adrtm, it's adjusting. but the outperformance relative to a shore competitor, honda, is what's impressive. here, too, one can speak of valuation, if you want to talk about funny-mentals, when it can plunge from 130, all in a five-year period. >> all right. hold that thought, steve. there. he held it. good job. see you guys later. >> thank you very much. we're keeping a close eye on the markets. doyle up 6 points, not enough. that will be enough to give it a

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we have a royal baby. sue herera, break it to you. >> reporter: well, it's a boy. the duchess of cambridge gave birth to a boy. he weighs about 8 pounds and 6 ounces. we don't have a name, of course,

because they are going to wait a number of days to announce what the name is. but i can tell you the odds-on favorites for boys' names were george and james. so we'll see whether or not they take that under consideration. they expect that the economic boost from the anticipation of the birth of the baby and what happens next with the baby is going to be about $400 million pounds in terms of an economic boost to the u.k. now, there were an enormous amount of bets put down on whether it was going to be a boy or whether it was going to be a girl. about 100,000 individual bets have been placed since betting opened by lad burks, according to a spokesman there, and about 10,000 bets were made today alone, bill. so this was a huge event in the u.k., and, as a matter of fact, around the world. >> yeah. >> reporter: and we hope, certainly, the duchess is feeling well. it is a boy, and he came in at 8 pounds, 6 ounces, and he was --

kelly, maybe you can help me with this, born at 16:24 p.m. british time. >> yes. i was just going to say 4 -- it was several hours ago. >> 11:24 our time. east coast time, at least. >> reporter: so we will see. there are crowds gathering outside of buckingham palace, because even though they varied what the routine would be for this announcement, they actually put out a press release -- they were going to post it on an easel at buckingham palace, first, but they decided to change it, because, i think, probably to get rid of the throngs of reporters outside of the hospital. >> you think? >> reporter: but in general, you know, they changed the routine a little bit, so we now know it is a boy. >> yeah. thanks, sue. you must be feeling pretty good about yourself. >> we should mention -- >> once again, the house wins. right? the odds-on favorite among the betters was girls. so the house wins. >> and i think i might have won our cnbc pool on this, given the actual time of the birth, and it was a boy. it might come down to me and steve liesman. we'll have to figure this out.

>> you said 1:18. >> we didn't put any money on it. >> it was not lost on the floor of the new york stock exchange. as soon as word was getting out, we heard them yelling boy. >> we should let you know -- we should let you know that the buckingham palace has released a statement, they say that the queen and the duke of edinboro are delighted by the news. keep in mind that this baby, this son, is third in line of succession after his royal highnesses. >> should we mention what art was telling us? we didn't get a chance to confirm that yet. >> has that ever stopped us -- [ laughter ] we were speculating about what would happen if it were a female and they've changed the law to say a female could assume the throne. >> ascend to the throne. >> that was in england. >> right. >> apparently not throughout the whole commonwealth. so maybe not in australia or canada. if this was a girl, we went dough now they would have handled that. >> exactly. it would have raised interesting

questions. >> now it's a into the point. >> reporter: it's a moot point. it's a boy, he's healthy, and the duchess resting co ining co according to the palace. >> thank you, sue. let's overthink it. >> it's interesting to see people setting around the front page in 1948, going back with the historically trends, how the press covered it in the past. the first royal child to be had in the twitter era. >> i wonder if they were registered at sears? >> -- you know, they now do luxury, bill. that's what i hear. >> do they? is that right? >> yeah, assuming the royal will go upscale for the gifts. >> yes, courtney reagan explains what we're talking about here. >> reporter: i have to be the one to pivot from royal baby to sears. i'm so excited! we'll get to sears right now. so sears may not be the first retailer you think of if you're in the market for rolex, but they hope you might find what you're looking for on its marketplace anyway. sears.com has a section called

marketplace where outside vendors can sell merchandise similar to ebay. there is a men's rolex watch for sale by bob's watches for $32,995. sears makes money by collecting 7% to 20% of sale plus $39.99 monthly fee from the vendors. sears confirms in three years, the marketplace has grown to include more than 85 million items, the vast majority of the retailers total sales, remember, come from the physical stores. sears' total sales have fallen every year since 2007, sears total sales for the fiscal year reported in february a quarter of what they were in 2007. no one expects marketplace to turn around the slumping sales but it's got us talking and we have amazon and ebay as competitors. when we reached out for further commentary, they noted it includes millions of non-luxury items. it says it has the assets to establish a market-leading next-day and two-day shipping

capability, so that would be luxury or nonluxury, trying to compete in the marketplace. bill? >> all right. we'll let you go jump up and down in the newsroom now. >> reporter: i will, thank you. >> courtney reagan on the royal birth. will this move by sears be a boost for the company? sears stock has been underperforming the markets so far this year, as we know. marina thinks this could work, while paul does not think the luxury angle fits with sears. thank you both for joining us. marino, i've been doing the tv thing a while. the mandate has always been, know your audience. there's a reason we don't do ariel car chases on cnbc, because it doesn't fit our audience profile. why would sears want to sell luxury items and why do you think it will work? >> well, first, it's not just luxury items. it's many items. certainly, the effort that sears is pulling through, it's interesting, they're trying to create a marketplace which includes luxury items. the consumer is not just a -- something that doesn't exist, is

abstract. the consumer changes, depending on the attitude. so one moment i'm a luxury consumer. one moment i could be a valet consumer. we have to see what will happen in reality. is this going to change the overall dynamic within sears? i don't think so. we don't think so, because 95% of the sales are in the stores. but certainly, we can create a different awareness within the consumers about sears, just like target did. a few years ago. >> yeah, paul, you're a little more skeptical here, aren't you? >> well, yeah, and i was warned to not -- to stick to the bear side here, but i've got to say, maybe some of the small vendors can't take an order in pounds and ship it to england, right? so that's a benefit i didn't research before the segment. >> should have thought it through, right? >> so to be serious, luxury vendors in general really are very, very protective of their brands. so i think sears is doing, you

know, a heroic effort to sign up a lot of small vendors that are maybe going to look for an alternative from ebay or amazon. but the question is, can it really move the needle, and then i do think there is a mismatch between, you know, the ultra high-end, especially a rolex watch, and, you know, you and i might shop for lawnmowers or tools at sears, but not watches. >> yeah, paul, how much of a risk is this for the company? is this the kind of thing they can say, well, we'll give it a try. it doesn't really -- the investment isn't that much. or, actually, is it a big deal? how important is it for them that this works? >> well, i think sears is investing a lot in the idea, and they're investing a lot in online in general, and they're using a lot of whatever they have left over after they've paid their bills, you know, to go down that avenue. so it is very important to the future of the company. right now, though, their profits are so thin.

i mean, you're talking about 18 million unique visitors a month, or a million paying customers. i mean, what are your profit assumptions per customer per month, and where's that showing up on the bottom line in this is a company that only made $270 million ebitda just last year. >> right. marino, do you agree it's very important, i'm short on time, you know, it has the feel of a hail mary pass by eddie lampert. do youagree? >> they have tried different strategies that different work. the marketplace is certainly a good idea. the question is going to be execution, as always. the question is going to be the management team that's going to execute this. it's not just your regular project, as you need a lot of knowledge to do this and do it right. so depending on how the management team is going to go about it and who is going to be assigned to it, we'll see some results. it's very early to tell, but again, it's a step in the right direction.

>> if i could jump in real quick, jump in, i think the execution has been good. if you go to the site, it works great. they have a lot of vendors. i don't know they're selling a lot of stuff. it's a good strategy, because they don't have anything -- you know, they have to fill up the warehouses and they've got to move more stuff. you know, i think that -- it's not really an alternative that can beat amazon. >> right. so if they're shopping on their pcs, then they're windows shopping. huh? thank you. i don't know where it comes from sometimes. >> television genius. >> yes, thank you. >> please. 15 minutes left in the trading session here. the dow is up about three points. we need a five-point gain for an all-time high. any positive close will be an all-time high on the s&p. >> yeah, paring back. up next, julia bore sten tells us the number -- the one number we should say in netflix's earnings report you need to keep an eye on to find out if the rally in the shares

can hold. she's moderating and asking questions on the netflix conference call. she'll tell us about that as well. here's a shocker. the vast majority of american millionaires do not consider themselves to be wealthy. why is that? and how much money does it take for somebody to feel rich? well, it may depend on where you live, it turns out. the exclusive results of the new survey coming up later on the "closing bell." yes, more pink floyd coming your way, as well. ♪ . weekdays are for rising to the challenge.

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netflix has been one of wall street's biggest blockbusters this year. the stock up more than 180% since january 1. ? wow. >> incredible. >> a lot of that riding on the earnings. they are due out at the top of the hour. julia looks at the numbers. julia? >> reporter: well, kelly, investors have their eye on a couple of key indicators of netflix's growth and future potential. perhaps most important is the number of paying u.s. subscribers to netflix's streaming business. analysts expect more than 29.5 million. then, there's revenue growth, which is expected to be 21% to 1.072 billion, and then earnings growth, as well, expected -- earnings are expected to triple

from 11 cents a year ago to 40 cents this quarter. there are also other numbers in the spotlight, like the number of international subscribers. the company projected as many as 7.9 million total, and then the dvd business. the question is, how fast it's declining. last quarter, the company projected as many as $112 million in profit from the dvd business. less than that would be a disappointment. the stock is down a little less than 1% today, ahead of its quarterly results, recovering a little bit from losses earlier. and ahead of its unprecedented approach to an earnings call. dwoogle -- netflix is actually hosting a google hangout, which the company has asked me to co-host along with analyst rich greenfield from btig. we'll be moderating questions that have been e-mailed and tweeted in to us. i'll be back at the top of the hour as soon as those netflix numbers are out. we'll be digging in. kelly and bill, back over to you. >> okay, julia, thanks very much. looking forward to that. and keeping an eye on markets here, because there are just

about 10 minutes to go before the closing bell. and the dow has now turned negative. again, mcdonald's is a big weigher on the index. if you want to know what's happening with the broader s&p 500, we're up about .1%, so a couple of points there, bill. >> all right. we'd be

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baby watch at buckingham palace has turned into baby celebration. people are flocking to the palace after they got the word. >> incredible. you know, because there's going to be a lot of people in london, you know, from spending time there, you know it's not always the thing that londoners love to talk about. i bet that crowd is packed with tourists.

>> you bet. >> it will be a huge story. >> it's a boy, by the way, in case you hadn't heard. that's why we're wearing blue. could you have worn any higher heel, by the way, today? >> yes, i will bring those next time. >> i'm sure you're will. >> we're 10 minutes from the close. the dow and s&p pushing for all-time highs. >> and joining us is steve, and you are disappointing by the earnings so far, yes? >> yes. right now, running 2-to-1 beats to misses. so that's running a little high. we're still -- we've only had about one-fifth of the way through the s&p, but that's not where we want to see it. again, we're also seeing the companies missing on the top line. >> revenue number has been -- yeah. >> you know, we're three-quarters now into companies missing the revenues, having a slightly higher of ratio of beats-to-misses, and we're worried. >> chad, people are calling it an outright revenue recession. where do you see it?

>> i completely agree. last quarter, revenues for the s&p 500 were flat, even modestly down. you need to see a pick up in aggregate demand on a global basis, to propel the top line higher. you're not seeing that. expectations for the market, the third and fourth quarter, are for a recovery, we don't think that's in the cards. we're thinking about gdp at 2%, third, fourth quarter, which there gets you at fair market at best. >> right. >> it hasn't bothered the market. we've been flirting with all-time highs again today. >> yeah. i think a lot of it is just, again, where are you going to put your money? you can still get dividend yields, the volatility in the equity markets. i think it's still somewhat of an interest rate story rather than truly fundamentals. we'll see when that finally switches. >> but does that worry you? if people are putting money to work in this market, even though the fundamentals aren't all that great? >> look, the federal reserve, everyone on the floor knows the federal reserve has been ginning up the market, in all asset classes, equities as well as

fixed income, so it is a bit of a concern. you need to see an earnings follow-through and an economic follow-through, and it's critical we see that in this quarter, which i don't think we'll come to that. >> and for us, the valuations haven't gotten astronomical. we're still trading 15 times, 14 1/2 times forward earnings, so it's not like it's incredibly inflated. and we do see the housing recovery coming through. as long as it comes through -- >> erin, chad, thank you. we'll come back with the closing countdown. >> and the netflix earnings. stay tuned. the millionth customer. would you mind if i go ahead of you? instead we had someone go ahead of him and win fifty thousand dollars. congratulations you are our one millionth customer. nobody likes to miss out. that's why ally treats all their customers the same. whether you're the first or the millionth. if your bank doesn't think you're special anymore, you need an ally. ally bank. your money needs an ally.

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from td ameritrade. about a minute left. the dow, boy, making a comeback here. it needs to be up five points to hit an all-time high. it doesn't look like we'll do it. mcdonald's has been dragging that market lower today. peter costa, is there a speed bump down the road you're watching, or is it full steam ahead still for you? >> you know, it could be full steam ahead, but you have to always watch out for earnings. i think that even when the earnings come in bad, the market doesn't react. as if it's life threatening. it affects the stock. like mcdonald's got hit. it didn't kill the market. the breadth is on the positive side. so there's no individual stock that will stop it. you always have to worry about any kind of like, geopolitical thing that might change. >> right. >> but right now, i don't see

anything ahead of us that will stop us. >> all right. thank you much. >> thank you. >> we are going out with a gain of about two, three points. [ bell ringing ] we needed to be up five to hit an all-time high. the s&p, another all-time high. what do you know? stand by. the second hour of the "closing bell" and the netflix numbers right now. ♪ it's 4:00 p.m. on wall street. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans in today for maria bartiromo. >> and i'm bill griffeth. another record day for the s&p. it doesn't look like we'll get one for the dow. here's how we're finishing the day. the industrial average needed to be up five mounts. we're not doing that. hello there. mcdonald's, the drag there, taking about 19 points out of the dow today. it's one of the dow components after the earnings disappointed this morning. the s&p looks like we will have another