many cases anymore. pointing out facebook i think is there within a dollar or thereabouts of its openinginio price at 36.90 and change right now. interesting afternoon lies ahead. that will do it for "power lunch." >> sure does. "street signs" begins right now. keep your eye on the markets because we're in fed waiting mode. we'll see you tomorrow. our eyes are on the market. got a very simple question for you. is the stock market overvalued? it is the question. it matters to your money, and we're going to hit that story all hour long. housing stays hot across. home prices doing something they have not done since 2006. it's the big story that's got a lot of homeowners very happy. plus, three more stock picks for you from a four-star fund manager and herb and i go toe to toe on an investing bet. it is gold versus coffee. you decide who will be right in

a year's time and don't hold back. hi, everybody. mandy will be back soon. here's the market check. the dow down 27 points right now. not a big market-moving day overall. nasdaq getting positive again and the eyes, as sue said, are on facebook. that stock clawing, creeping, crunching, trying to get back to its ipo price of 38. we'll give you updates on facebook all day long rights here on cnbc. meantime though, let's get down to the new york stock exchange and bob pisani. bob, you've been talking about actually an industry that i've been involved in a long, long time ago. that's the fertilizer name. potash stocks collapsed, kind of a complicated story. why are there so many sellers in this space today? >> it's a good story because it involves two cartels that are breaking up essentially. potash controlled by two cartels that set all the world's prices and the volumes and then one of them decided to get out of cartel that they were in. you can see the effect that you

can see all the potash companies and potash companies go through the floor and maybe drop as much as 25%. it's a true cartel, folks. top six producers in the world control 80% of the world's supply, and all these producers belong to two marketing organizations. that's the cartel, that negotiates the prices and contracts. i'm serious. there's a canadian cartel and there's a russian cartel. the russian cartel has the biggest producer in the world. they decided to get out. that's sort of like saudi arabia getting out of opec because they control prices and volumes through the contracts. now they can do what they want to increase production. that's why the stocks are all moving to the downside. who wins and loses on this deal? well, this is my opinion, but i think the losers and producers and investors, the winners are consumers and farmers, and a major cartel being broken up today, and i think that's good news for the world's consumers. back to you. >> a big story and a lifelong

time ago. i used to trade that for mitsubishi bank. some would say i'm still in the same business in a way. i know what potash is. >> there's a joke there. >> there's a big joke there, and i'll make it at my own expense. knock it of course, herb. with the dow up 19% and doubling from its 2009 lows, this is the question most people are starting to ask now. are stocks fundamentally overvalued? that's part of what market analy analysts said. went back and estimated last career's earnings per share and applied the same percentage declines to the next four quarters, and simple math, cut the denominator without changing the new jersey rater the ratios will rise. if you put those numbers into the equation this year the forward-to-price earnings suddenly jumps to 15.4, not historically high but certainly not cheap either so we've got a

special treat today. paul hickey of the spoke investment group is here because he's one of the smartest guys on the street, herb, eamon javers and steve liesman about to jump in here. paul, you made a great note. welcome, by the way. >> thanks for having me. >> made a great point yesterday is that you found that the s&p 500 is going around, what, 17 times trailing earnings, but we don't care about the past. we care about the future. on a forward looking basis, are stocks overvalued right now? >> well, i think a year from now if we're looking at a 15 hadn't 4 pe ratio, that's right in line with the historical average so i wouldn't be too worried about that. coming into the year one of our main themes was that valuation was at historically cheap levels. that's no longer working in the market's favor right now. we're a little overvalued and the s&p trailing 17 versus 15.3 but when you look at bull markets historically, they typically, there's only been four bull markets where the pe has peaked at a higher valuation than the current valuation and

there's only been three bull markets where the multiple expansion has been lower than what we've seen in this current bull market so it's not a real negative but it's not a positive. >> that's a great chart that we've got up. you guys do great work. listening on the radio, a 100-year chart, the average 15.3 and going back to the 20s. right now it's 16.9. i guess the concern, and this is john butter's point, is this, if the earnings don't come in the way we think they are, if they get reduced down, all raff sudden then the ratio is going to go up and suddenly we could be looking at a 17 or 18 multiple which would then say we're out of that historical balance. >> yeah. that would be butter's article or announcement if estimates are off for the next four quarters, and, in order, it would have have to be a classal miss in the next four quarters, and while it could happen, strategists haven't been exactly right all the time, but they could

underestimate it, too. >> that's it, and listen, i know herb has a strong view on this as well. analysts, while smart, they work hard. they get it wrong just like the rest of us, right? you see them, they cut earnings expectation after the company comes out and preannounces. >> let's look at what happened. i don't know how the buybacks were doing, company buying back as much stock and perhaps was not helping, mott buying back as much stock and companies can only cut so much. were they not cutting so much, they have been cutting for so long, that they couldn't help boost the earnings that way so you didn't have. i don't know what you think about that, but that's my sort of analysis of this, plus you have on an operating basis relative to a year ago, just having an increase on a four-quarter basis by 1%, so it really ain't that great. >> no. earnings growth. no one is saying earnings growth has been strong overall for the market, but right now even after, that you tend to see multiple expansion in which we've seen so far this year which we haven't seen for most of the bull market. we're starting to see that now,

but, i mean, multiples have expanded this bull market by 23%. the average is about 60%, so, you know, you'd have to get to a pe of over 20 to just have an average. not saying we're going to get there. >> i'll be the sunshine to herb's rain, like a '70s rock duet here, because what if earnings estimates come in higher? what if earnings expand? i'm not saying they will, but then you're looking at a market that some could point to saying now we're at 13 times earnings and now we're undervalued. where do you lay the hedge? what's a better shot of happening? going to get earnings cut or earnings increased in the next two quarters? >> i think what you have to look at, got to look at -- can't look at forward estimates because they are notoriously wrong. i think the analysis that you're talking about butters was the fact that earnings have -- they have been wrong, and if we calculate that same margin of error for the coming four quarters we're looking at a 15 pe next year at this time which is right in line with the historical average. >> okay, okay. that is the macro view. earlier today, by the way, i ran

a search on facts set for the most undervalued on pe basis names in the s&p 500. we're not going to show them to you now because that wouldn't be a tease. we'll ask if they are cheap, paul, for a reason or if they are undervalued based on that metric. those five names coming up in a bit. a lot more with paul and herb all hour long but other news to hit as well because fed meeting day one kicked off today, and in less than 24 hours we will get the latest decision from the fomc. our own crack fed reporter steve "scoop" liesman is here with some very interesting survey results. steve? >> reporter: i think you're going to find this interesting, and i want to ask the question from our cnbc fed survey does the market ignore the view of the hawks? let's talk about who the hawks are. charles ploser, richard fisher, esther george and jeffrey locker, george dissending on every fed statement that's come out, and these guys generally

way more hawkish, but i want to show you a place where it looks like the market may be ignoring the views of the hawks and that's on their interest rate forecast. take a look at the average of the 51 respondents when we ask where will the fed funds rate be december ber, june, june and december 15, not much gain until next year, and then maybe you get a hike by the end of next year, but more importantly the hikes come december 2015. now, i put this up against the fed's forecast. remember, the fed will give us in its statement of economic projections their own forecasts so there really should be no difference here except there is a big difference. look at december 14, 0.43 for the fed, but 0.28. why is the market more dovish? it actually increases 1.34 for 15 and 0.97, under 1% for the market. why would there be this difference? and now i want to show you the fed statements of where the

funds rate should be. take a look at this -- at this forecast here. over here is the number of fed members who have a certain forecast here, okay? so four guys here pick 1% for 15 and three guys say it's going to be 1.5% but look out here, all the way out. three guys say it's going to be 3%, and then one guy says it's going to be 2%. these are the outliers. who are the four people? what happens is when i eliminate the hawks, the people when i think these forecasts belong to, the market and the fed are even. that's an indication that the market may be throwing out the hawkish fed forecasts of some members of the fomc. let's take a look at what the consensus is for the fed ice time line here. the taper, according to our survey begins october 2013. they will stop qe the middle of 2014, around june and july. first rate hike and the second half of 2015. so, guys, that's the consensus forecast, and it seems like what

the market does is it follows the consensus of the board or the middle of the board and throws out some of those more hawkish members. brian? >> the fed meetings are quickly becoming autobond society events, steve. we're the vultures. thank you very much. we'll bring you the fed decision live here tomorrow with an all-star lineup and ready to break it down for you, what it means for you and your money. tune into "street signs" a little bit early. we get the show at 1:55 p.m. very generous of "power lunch." thank you, by the way, the fed decision comes right at 2:00. the president is speaking at an amazon.com warehouse and he's set to announce a plan to jump start the private sector job creation. this is his fourth speech on the economy in just the last week. it is all part of a major economic push. and earlier today there was talk of the president pushing for a so-called grand bargain on taxes. our own d.c.-based reporter eamon javers is here making a rare appearance at the mother ship from his usual post in washington. eamon javers, going to get anywhere with this grand

bargain? john boehner is already pushing back. >> bottom line, the house republicans looked at this thing and said it's neither grand nor much of a bargain. senate republicans coming out and saying this is a lot of the same old stuff from the president. politically though what this speech does, you see the president speaking in tennessee at an amazon.com fulfillment center. it allows the president to take center stage again and be pushing forward with economic proposals to get jobs back in this country and then it puts republicans up on capitol hill on the political defensive, making them react to what he's doing, so this may be good politics. it's not necessarily going to be policy at all in any point because republicans object hill don't like it. basically what he's saying is he wants a tax bargain where you lower rates, broaden the base by closing loopholes and then take some of the net revenue gains to the government and spend them on infrastructure and other stimulus. >> what's the problem here because the last time i checked the gop is in favor of lower taxes, right, so if he offers to lower it from 35 to it will and also a hard cap at 25 for manufacturers, is it the fear

that if the loopholes are removed the tax rate will go above its current net effective base? >> that's exactly the question, and the question for republicans is which loopholes are you going to eliminate and how popular are those? when you start talking about eliminating loopholes you get to the mortgage interest rate deduction and things people lot. start going after some of the sacred cows that can be a problem politically so there's real concern here on the part of people up on capitol hill. what exactly they would be voting for. >> hawks, doves, tapers, owls, this is zoological "street signs" today. >> am i in that category, zoological in. >> no, king of the mammals, thank you. up next, is it 2006 all over again? home prices are soaring, but only in some places. we're going to let you know where and whether buyers should beware and here it is, folks. mystery chart of the day. you guys have been acing these. trying to make it harder. a dow component that's the furthest away a 52-week high on

a percent basis. tweet me @sullycnbc with his guesses and paul hickey probably knows so be quiet. you asked mandy how she's doing on her vacation and tell her to come back soon. we're back after this. ♪ norfolk southern what's your function? ♪ hooking up the country helping business run ♪ ♪ trains! they haul everything, safely and on time. ♪ tracks! they connect the factories built along the lines. and that means jobs, lots of people, making lots and lots of things. let's get your business rolling now, everybody sing. ♪ norfolk southern what's your function? ♪ ♪ helping this big country move ahead as one ♪ ♪ norfolk southern how's that function? ♪ [ male announcer ] you wait all year for summer. ♪ this summer was definitely worth the wait.

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welcome back to "street

signs." i'm josh limiton. have a look at alexion pharmaceuticals and you'll see a strong intraday pop. alexion set to tap goldman as an adviser. that's after a roche overture, according to bloomberg news. the stock up 9% on heavy volume. brian, back to you. >> josh lipton, thanks very much. >> let's also talk now about something else that's out. home prices. they have been soaring, but not everywhere. the case shiller report says home prices in may rose the most since 2006. san francisco led the price and the home price surging an incredible 24.5%. that's a market that your next guest knows a lot about. joining us is ken rosen and paul hickey here with the spoke investment group. san fran is your home. what the heck is going on with home prices? >> extremely strong job growth. the top five in the country because of the whole social

media area and there's been a shortage of inventory. between 17 days in the east bay and 30 days in san jose and a shortage of listings. and so people are bidding up prices. interest rates very low. they have come up some but people rushing to buy. >> how much does this have to do with nasdaq and google at all-time highs. do you notice a correlation? >> yes, definitely a correlation. >> people have money to spend and want to spend, it especially in valley and the city of san francisco but it's spread throughout the bay area and very strong recovery. this is off a very sharp decline. we're rebounding and back close to previous peek prices. >> looking at the case shiller

numbers released today from may, haven't seen all the rise in rates, what do you see going forward? >> by fall the rate of price increase is going to slow down dramatically is. still growing up but the 100-basis point rise in rates will affect the price increases. still very good demand for housing but it will take some of the froth off the market and we've seen in los angeles and orange counting and that tells you people feel it's a good time to sell as well as a good time to buy a house. >> as our viewers know i've gone out on a limb saying 5 could destroy housing. my greater fear is inventories. >> let's finally put our homes on the market and everybody's

home is on the market and prices collapse. what's the risk of that. >> it does slow the rate of price increase. inventories are so lean there's a way to get back to normal inventories. there are some places that have not recovered. a lot of the florida markets, sales taking place, a lot of foreclosure inventory still there. no collapse but i think the rate of increase slows substantially as we go through the next two years and we'll be looking at price increased of 4% to 5% not as we have 12 percent year over year. >> ken, always a pleasure to get your insight. have a great day. >> thank you. >> just ahead, it's the plains, trains and automobiles trade trip adviser and priceline speeding to new highs so what the heck is going on with expedia? we'll dig into that, plus, the stocks with the lowest price-to-earnings ratio in the s&p 500 right now. are they inpexensive, a good

bargain or are they cheap? more with paul hickey. "street signs" returns right after the break. in today's markets, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price -- maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.

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welcome to the earnings squad where we dissect the earnings story everybody is talking about and help you trade the stories that you may have missed. i'm simon hobs filling in for melissa lee. guys, thank you for joining us. first off, let's check the scorecard. 67% of companies have beaten their earnings per share tacts.

9% have missed estimates and 23% have come in. herb, let's kick it off with you. this company announced. it will be interesting to watch. this is really a company that's the registry for telephone numbers. they have that, but that contract they have had since 1996. up for bid. extends until 2015 but by september they are supposed to announce. they are expected to be other bidders. the price of this could come down and people expect that could affect the earnings growth going forward.

>> they haven't mentioned it until the announcement comes off. i want to put new star on your docket as a company worth watching. >> just as new star was spun off from lockheed martin conoco phillips spun out phillips 66. >> it's a refinery company and that's why people are really going to be watching this earnings report closely. that's on revenue of $41.5 and, of course, the refiner are in a tough position as crude prices have climbed higher. we did see valero report and they game in with an eps and what they will be watching for is how they maintain the margins and how they deal with the price balances. >> analysts expecting a neutral

report. soda strome. >> comes out after the close. there's been downgrades, a lot of concern. want to quickly mention american tower. that comes out also. keep a watch on that one. and what they say will be fascinating. we have to leave it there. that's earnings cut for today. melissa lee will be back tomorrow joined by court any reagan and jon najarian. >> appreciate, it buddy. >> up next on "street signs," special street talk, paul hickee here and we'll dig into the five most undervalued names of the s&p 500. are they cheap for a reason? we're bringing you mega cap picks, a four-star fund manager who says these three names have plenty of room to hunt. one hint.

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. street talk time with the spoken investment group paul hickey. our special guest star all week

long. facebook, 37.66 was the high price nnching to 38. >> the big thing to think about facebook, once we get to the ipo price. will the stock break out from there because there's been a lot of overhead resistance. relief off aloud of investors mind. >> generac. power down for days, weeks, whatever. earnings pete the street after doubling in 12 months. >> mentioned this as the most underrated stock in the s&p. for you triple plays in a row and hurricane sandy was once in a century. not wind and rain but more flooding. won't take a big storm to really boost generac. it's a very promising stock. everybody i know is viewing a

generator as must have instead of nice to have. >> third stock of the day. quietly apple sfoeks having its best month since february of 2012. the downturn has been broken. historically when they rally, it rallies about 15%. >> that's important. when the stock finishes up 3%, over the next three months, the average return is 17%. there's a lot riding on this launch of the new ipad and iphone. when apple rises by 3% it jumps on average 15%. wow, that's why we love you and

why you're on the show. >> 3-d systems. this stock is down sharply. i'm in this camp, view 3d printing as one of the great technologies. >> the second- or is very volatile but the stock misses earnings but the company was due to accelerating expenses, and reiterated guidance and the stock has been in a real nice range for two months and rallied off the lows and holding that range so as long as it can stay above 45. >> you like to see when a stock comes off its lows intraday. >> paul, thing you very much, your next guest says botox and a few flash drives could boost your portfolio. i teases the no drown lines and

you're always smiling so you don't have to worry about it but botox is hot and allegen makes botox but does that mean it's a good stock? >> we think so. having an issue over restasis. a lot of it is cash payments and that's why we like it because vanity trumps everything, it's not just botox. thinning type products, a lot of reconstruction, shall we say for sagging assets, we'll just leave it at that, and, you know, it's a cash-based business for at least 36% of its revenues, however, restasis is an eye drop that boomers are really starting

to use and that's coming off of pat end. what we think will happen is the company will be able to maintain some of that market sayre that it has so we're betting on allergen being able to do that. >> we love to help people lift their sagging assets. a big theme of mine. honeywell is a giant corporation. why do you love it so much? >> well, we love that they are expanding margins. not a whole lot of companies are able to expand in the upper operating margins but they are well positioned in aeronautics. boeing is one of our biggest holdings as well and we think that this is a long term trend that the developing world wants their airplanes even though there's a lull coming up here in that part of the world. >> we used to use flash memory

for everything on their cameras. sandisk has a huge new business they are building out. why do you like the stock, kim, for a couple of reasons. >> they make the memory product that they make and showing up in the data center more and more. in our sell phones as hard drives and lapse. as we start getting more and more and doing more and more on these tablets they need more memory and stisk makes this. this is called 2d memory and we don't believe the industry is adding more compassy so for 18 months or so this is constrained supply and we love that as a shareholder. thanks very much. talk to you soon. >> thanks for having me on. >> next up, paul's take on a

friendly wager between me and mr. herb green pittsburgh. are these stocks inexpensive or cheap for a reason? >> so much to tell you about. coming up over the next two hours will health insurance rates strokt when obama care kicks in. we'll get 37 billion worth of advice from veg enderle investor mario ga belly and oracle president explains why his stocks are edging up. more "street signs" after this.

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summer's best event from cadillac. let summer try and pass you by. lease this all-new cadillac ats for around $299 per month or purchase for 0% apr for 60 months. come in now for the best offers of the model year. you know it even after all these years. but your erectile dysfunction - you know,that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours.

if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial. >> paul, i want to get your friendly wager. >> i want to get your advice on a bet that i've made with mr. greenberg here. i believe that coffee, the commodity, right, we drink it every day, the cafe, look, there we go, on the side of coffee.

herb believes the gold miners and both charts, by the way, are hideous. >> death warmed over, that the coffee etf will beat gold over the next 12 months. i'll stake the side with you. >> i don't like any commodities here because we think the dollar is stronger and causing commodity twices to be lower. gold is just going to be negatively impacted and that's going to hurt the gold mine ers have to tell you something. this is the ultimate contrarian play. >> such a -- everyone is so bearish on it and i put my mother where my mouth is and

picked up a regular gold iau because i want regular exposure because i want something so out of favor. playing out. will it play out a year from now? we'll see. i don't know if i'll own it a year from now. >> we can own etfs. i'm not saying it's going to be great investment. simply saying it's going to be better than hours. >> i hope i'm right. >> we'll see. it's interesting when you watch these two trades. >> as promises i ran a search for the s&p 500 stocks with the lowest price-to-earnings ratio, trailing number, one number, one. does cheap mean good value, so all of these have pe ratios of less than 7.3, ce industries.

valero. cf industries has the lowest pe on a trailing basis as of two hours ago. >> any of these names that you like. >> this is the only stock in the s 500 up mid-june from the end of august, and -- >> the fertilizer? >> yeah. >> a lot of fertilizer, and right now it's still marginally up. >> the only s&p 500 stock. >> every summer for how long? >> you had 2007. so all the 500 stocks, little old cf with the dubose distinction. what about joy global. ppg. a little surprised to see that on there given the housing recovery. >> a name we actually like.

>> refiners have been hit hart by the collapsing of the spread and that may be an opportunity. >> joy trouble. don't know enough about it to comment on it. >> thanks very much. >> ceo confidence at a high. the highest in a year and according to the latest young president's global pulse survey. with moderate growth expectations let's bring in the chairman and ceo of customers bring. now that we got that out of the way. here's what i want to ask you about, the expectations for the economy are not great but better than they, but the expectations for hiring not necessarily so. at what point do we grow enough that your member organizations and all the companies have to start hiring.

>> well, you know, this seems to be like the survey day today with the fed survey coming out and our survey is the young president's organization made up of 20,000 members from around the world and the economy is a 6.3 trillion economy and like you said what the young president's shows are saying they are optimistic about the future. more optimistic in the first two weeks of july paired to where they were a. >> year ago and six out of ten don't feel they will be hiring and there's still some concerns about the future and that's why it's cautiously optimistic is what you should expect from the chofsers of the world. >> you run a bank. a lot of people made the mention about credit, that we still don't have enough open flow of credit to really take the economy up another notch.

a fair statement or not true? >> i think overall it's a fair same. if you look back over what caused the financial crisis that we were in. >> it is a major crisis caused by the housing market and combined with that there was total lack of confidence and how have we dealt with that? >> the fed has taken on the large share of dealing with it by a very easy and very stimulating fed policy but from a fiscal point of view, what have we done? not too much, and the concerns that we had about the fiscal mess that the united states is in we haven't really addressed it. the strong housing market can add 2% to 3% to economic growth. we really haven't addressed it. >> another issue would be the overall tax policy and energy policy and it seems to be that

we've been attacking. we've made the economy more of a political issue rather than an issue bases upon, if we can get 3% economic growth, the president wanted to stimulate long growth. haven't seen regulatory growth, nothing that has caused assimilation of loan growth. >> thanks very much. take care. >> a little travel stock analogy for you. one stock is first class and the other one perhaps is coach and yet a third perhaps stuck in cargo. which of those names are they, but first, we'll we view our mystery chart. pretty much all of you got. it just too smart, but if you didn't get it, we'll show you the name coming up.

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time to reveal the mystery chart. paul, you know -- tell america what it is. >> alcoa? >> this is where i'm stupid, okay, because i picked the chart, and i thought it would be good. you said it's the only dow stock with, what, a single digit? >> i believe it's the only stock with -- >> or one of two? >> yeah, and it's just been a dog. and that chart is just the chart of a dog. >> yeah, well, a dumb chart of

the day by me. i tell you what, tomorrow is the 13th-best performer on the zimbabwe exchange, america. you asked for it, you got it. what's going on the luxury sectors? coach earnings down. yesterday, we got news hudson's bay company, parent of lord & taylor, was buying up saks. what's going on with coach, first off? whoof! >> coach had a difficult quarter. they're struggling with the north american handbag business. it's a more mature business for them of and while they have a lot of different growth initiatives, the north american handbag business has been struggling, and that's the reason behind the soft numbers today. >> any sign of a turnaround there at coach, temporary blip, good opportunity to buy the name? >> i like it. i think there are a lot of opportunities going forward. it's not going to happen overnight, but they've got a new management team in place. they've basically elevated a lot of long-tenured people with the organization and then added some new people. and so, we're talking, you know, new, creative leadership at the company.

that touches marketing. it touches product. it touches store environment. it's a real opportunity for them to turn the trends around. >> any other names out there that you like that maybe, you know, are having some problems right now, liz, but they look good longer term through either management changes, better products, or whatever? >> i think ralph lauren. that's not really a manage many change thesis, but they've had a little bit of a choppier time of late. you know, one thing -- some of the global names are facing is pressure from the yen and how that translates into their own results, something that coach is struggling with, ralph lauren is struggling with. i think ultimately these global growth names and luxury names are going to be the best place to be positioned longer term. >> all right, liz dunham, thank you very much. do appreciate your time. >> thanks for having me. a triple whammy for expedia -- you're welcome -- and the stock is down 25% in the past week. which is odd, because some of its competitors, like tripadviser and priceline, have done well.

in fact, tripadviser is one of the top stocks in the s&p 500 over the past week. joining us now is lazard's jake fuller. he downgraded expedia yesterday. if they're all down, i get it. expedia down, tripadviser is up. what's going on? >> three things in particular. first, we've learned online travel demand is great. second, competition in this space is pretty stiff. finally, trip adviser is an important company in this space. it came up short in the quarter largely because they misexecuted on a new advertising platform rolled out by trip adviser. they lost market share particularly in europe. to be sure, competition in the u.s. has stepped up and that's costing them -- costing them something, but it was really that trip adviser issue that led to the shortfall. >> yet today we played dreamer on "street signs" team, went on the website, trip adviseor, and

i noticed that you book on tripadviser through booking.com. i think a popular perception is they missed because booking.com killed them here in the u.s. what i am seeing is booking.com has moved up the curve. i think largely taking it in europe at this point. >> what's the best possible name in your coverage universe, jake? who do you love? >> yeah, short term, it has to be priceline here. you learn from trip adviser, online travel demand is great. we learn from expedia, they lost the market share in europe. somebody picked that up, and it's probably priceline. i think it sets it up real well into the q2 release next thursday. >> all right, jake fuller, heard it straight. we do appreciate it. thank you very much. >> thank you. next up, an epic fake it till you make it fail. and calling all small business owners. you do not want to miss this.

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fraud and tax charges. robert frank, i guess you could call this the sort of faux rich of reality tv. >> the in faux rich. >> oh, the new faux rich -- the audience will catch up with that one. look, we get it. it's entertainment. this is not reality-reality -- except our reality shows on cnbc. i wanted to look at how many of these folks actually were rich. and if you look at the stats, about 12 of the 60 housewives have at some point filed for bankruptcy or had a family company file for bankruptcy. so let's just go through the rogue's gallery of housewives who have had financial trouble in their life. we start out with alexis and jim, the orange county version, he filed for chapter 11 with his company back in 2010. the house, it turns out, featured on the show, was the on asset of that company, eventu eventually sold for $3 million in 2011. we go to the solatis, the couple that crashed the white house party. remember these guys? got their own show, the d.c.

housewives, one of the companies filed for chapter 7. they have, by some accounts, 30 lawsuits against them by vendors, creditors, other folks. and then there's our new york sonja -- i guess it's sonja morgan. she was, i guess, the wife of a former morgan heir, john adams heir, filed for bankruptcy in 2010, get this, brian, because she invested in a movie with john travolta called "fast, flash to bang time." >> huh? >> gee, who knew? doesn't that sound like a "fast flash to bang time" was the name -- >> is this a clean movie? >> i don't know what it was. it didn't happen. whatever it was. it didn't happen. and there was a lawsuit. she lost a lot of money. >> the new -- >> the new faux rich. >> i got it. i got t robert frank. final thoughts, paul, great job, 30 seconds, all yours. >> we started out this show talking about valuation, how it's no longer insanely cheap for the markets. so what we're looking at here, the consumer confidence report

today, one of the questions they asked is where are stock prices in six months. a little -- only 1.8% more people think the storm's going to be higher than lower over the next six months, and as those people become convinced, that's where you'll get your multiple expansion in the market going forward. >> well said and perfectly timed out. paul hickey, great job today. thank you. thank you, robert. thank you for watching "street signs." "closing bell" -- there you go -- next. hi, everybody, we enter the final stretch. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm ma receipt ya bartiromo at the new york stock exchange. >> something's different. >> so silly, bill. >> doesn't her hair look great? nice haircut. >> shh. >> there you go. i did not get a haircut, by the way. busy show today coming up. two huge interviews just ahead. we have oracle president mark heard to ring the closing bell, because they'll be listed today at the new york stock exchange. he'll talk in a few