tv Fast Money CNBC August 2, 2013 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
5:00 pm
tegy but now, two huge egos are squaring off in a huge way. at the least, it should be a lot of fun to watch. just like going to the movies. that will do it for us. thanks so much for being with me. have a fantastic weekend and i'll see you next week. stay with cnbc because fast money begins right now. new york city's time square i'm melissa lee. your traders -- stocks holding steady with both the dow and s&p 2500 closing at new highs. this on the back of july's disappointing jobs report, but the real tell was in the bond market where ten-year price whipping higher. is the settaper now off the
5:01 pm
table and how do you do it? >> i love that roll. earth, wind and fire song. i never thought this taper was on the table. i never talk about this. why would they stop now at this point? they're full speed ahead in every facet whatsoever as we talk about it all the time the market doesn't give you this kind of opportunity to sell the highs. the fact we couldn't even sell off today, we were down five handles on the all time high. >> you're saying they're not even close? >> no. i'd be shocked. shocked. >> all of these conversations they've had with the market. >> i believe they were all test balloons to see how the market, that's my opinion. >> don't you think that maybe ben bernanke wants to get the taper underway before he leaves office? >> that is big. you know this guy's been in office for eight years. i think he'd like to set the course for his own legacy. i think that has to happen with him in place here so to me, when you look two days ago, you saw the tlt got nailed. the worst day it had.
5:02 pm
we saw the ten-year yield spike to a new high, then it gets reversed, but only reversed half those gains today, so to me i think you maybe have more of a 50-50 chance and it's going to be data dependent. >> how about this. is there a bigger question? does the taper really matter at this point because people have gotten used to the idea of rates spiking that much higher. >> exactly. so maybe the bigger question is you should just stay in this market. hasn't been great, but you've been harping on this for a long time, that global growth may be a little sluggish but u.s. equityies continue to move higher. you have to stay along the market at this point. >> the 2004 analog also says the market could rally on the taper so by the time we get there and let's not forget what the fed is doing. today's data was a little weeker although the unemployment rate they're talking about this number and we have much less room to taper.
5:03 pm
so it 7.4, you can't tell me that's not significant, so if anything, i might say we got closer to taper today and i think that the august numbers on the payroll are going to be stronger. this was a weak number. we've seen all the payroll numbers that they've been very choppy and i would not be surprised to see august come in in september in that first couple of days before that fed meeting. >> here's the scenario that to me, to guy's point, if they don't taper, what does that say about the economy? global growth? >> it's awful. >> at some point with the market making new highs every day, it's going to turn the tables a little bit. >> it hasn't mattered before. >> you can use that as a catalyst to sell this market because if you have said you know what what does this tell us about global growth -- exactly. the market is still traded higher, people have stayed long the market. on the week, i sold some positions and i wound up buying
5:04 pm
them back today because you can't continue to fight this. you can't keep holding your breath for a sell off. >> to tim's -- the data that comes out by this point in the cycle, the data shouldn't be as choppy and all over the map. >> we just went through a near death experience. >> five years. and this is the same policy from five years ago. >> fair enough. any way, i just think if you look at where you are in this recovery what the market has done has rewarded consumer and those people whoothat have had a benefit from the easing and has not rewarded industrial companies who really need to see the global economy pick up. >> is it possible this is almost a win win situation for the stock market? the economy is improving, but mediocre or moderate at best and the fed continues with easy monetary policy or the economy actually is better. >> i don't know if it's that david teper moment at 10:15. the market is off to the races, but i know that i'm staying long
5:05 pm
google. long bank of america. long tesla. i'm staying long a lot of these names because the market continues to have that upside momentum and when it corrects i can liquidate. it doesn't show signs just yet. >> i just think policy risk is what this is all about and this is what i'm concerned about. >> all right. for more on this story, let's bring in the managing trek tor and global head of corporate bond development at pimco. >> nice to be here. >> if some are focused on the day the to day of the bond market it seems to be telling us today that september tapers off the table. when we look at it broad e, in terms of what it has done over the past six months, what do you think the message is and is septaper off the table? >> the bigger picture is really the policy rate and growth. pimco sees a 2% real growth forecast. the fed actually sees in 2014 to
5:06 pm
'15, a 3.5% forecast, so with we differ from the market or the fed is we don't think growth is that strong globally. we see a low inflation rate. and in fact we don't see that strong of a labor market, so all this in our view means the bond market a t these yield levels is very attractive. >> and that's a really scary thought for a lot of people. so you're telling me that when there's a choice, when there's a risk of both backing up of yield, even for the u.s. government, if you at least clarify, sovereign bonds like treasuries, or credit because to me, we've never been in a bigger spring court than we are on the credit curve especially on the longer epd. >> and we're underweight the long end of the yield curve. the big picture is it's kind of gold locks scenario because you've got a real economy growing at 1.5 to 2%.
5:07 pm
that keeps central banks running high. very easy policy. that supports many sectors of the economy. like autos, airlines energy housing, so in fact from an investment perspective, this is a dream. >> mark, what do you think, traded -- >> well we think they're going to head down towards two and a quarter to two and a half. that's a function the market is overshot due to technicals. we don't see the job market gains more than 150 to 175,000, which by the way means the unemployment rate particularly as people come back to the labor market doesn't come down as fast as it has over the last two
5:08 pm
years, which means the policy rate stays much longer and the intermediate part of the bond market is attractive. >> the stocks have been on fire. up 3% across the board, but here to date they've been graet performers. is there a better value so to speak in the bonds of the homebuilders versus the equities right now? >> yes, and also, within the housing related sector, we are favoring specifically companies like whirlpool appliances building materials companies like -- home improvement like usg, lumber companies, ware howser and the reason is that the remodel cycle is just starting. housing starts basically bottomed about a year and a half ago. remodel is just kicking in and who's going to benefit from that? whirlpool, those are the companies to own. not the homebuilders.
5:09 pm
>> mark pleasure speaking with you. have a great weekend. let's get a quick market flash. you saw that berkshire hathaway out with earnings. looks like a beat. josh? >> melissa, berkshire just reported. it's 23.84. the street was looking for 21.70. revenue, 44.69 billion. analysts expected 43.25 billion. book value, 22,900. that's an increase of 7.6%. just looking through the release. looks like investment and derivative versus a loss of 612 in a year ago period. insurance underwriting 530 million versus 619 in a year ago period. back to you. >> thank you very much. anybody here a buyer of brkb? >> it's performed. it's up i think 30 or so percent this year. it's a decent performer. would i buy? not necessarily. i think there are other financials that look better. we talk about the insurers
5:10 pm
earlier. we talked about through. that's what i was starting to lean. >> all right. in terms of what mark was saying about the home building trade, i thought that was interesting about the home building sector in the credit markets, usg, amas ko whirlpool. >> and also home depot and that's where i would say the only spot where i would -- are the homebuilders. ones that are so sensitive to the rates. unless you have a steel stomach, i would not be playing it. the short still looks constructive and you get that double double pro. >> we've got breaking news. i want to go to julia for the latest. >> cbs and time warner cable failed to reach a deal by the 5:00 p.m. eastern deadline and cbs stations as well as showtime are blocked out in new york los
5:11 pm
angeles and dallas. now, we have a statement from cbs saying we deeply regret in ill advised action -- also to time warner cable itself. then cbs says time warner cable has conducted negotiations in a combative and nonproductive spirit indulging in distorted public positioning. the statement goes on for a while here but ends by saying cbs seeks, what we've sought is fir -- the most watched television network. we will not accept less. we will not sign rights away granted to others. we will not give up our channel position, the channel 2 slot or any other asset which our viewers identify us. we will also not be subjected to pointless maneuvers like a series of one-hour extensions and mini drops that do nothing for either side but annoy our viewers. we hope this will be short and we can get back to providing
5:12 pm
news and sports. melissa, i'm waiting for a statement from time warner cable. i have not received one yet. but clearly, there are going to be a lot of customers who aren't happy this weekend. >> thank you. and you know, at this point, homeland's going to start on showtime in september. >> how are you going to fill your time? >> i'm not sure. maybe get back to exercising. >> all these media stocks there we are. about paying more for content. >> if you look at cbs, it's trading 19 times current. next year 15.5 time but the entire sector where is the balance of power. it really is the last mile and the cable companies are exerting the leverage which makes me say i don't know if i want to be trading media companies at their highs. >> michael burns, content. lionsgate. look at the stock since carl got involved, then dropped the ball on that one. it's a four bagger since and
5:13 pm
another all time high today. it shows no signs of stopping. >> disney fits in the same thing. >> earnings next week. time for pops and drops. biggest movers for the week. weight watchers down 16%. >> declining revenue, reducing forecast. they're having a hard time finding members. i would probably stay away from it and everyone's giggling. >> i thought you said -- only member. i still wouldn't buy the stock. >> just so you know. down 13%. >> there was a rumor that cit funded some of those suppliers. the company denied it. the stock still closed on the low of the week. it's down 27% on the year and it's approaching those levels where the tsiros fund got in. looks like an avoid all together. >> pop for buffalo wild wings.
5:14 pm
>> one of your favorite haunts, i know. >> extra spicy. >> they reported great quarter. knee jerk originally was to sell the stock and here we are at an all time high, but at 24 25 times forward earnings too much too rich i'd say take profits. >> where was the buffalo wing invented? >> buffalo, new york. >> in your dorm room at harvard. >> at the anchor bar in buffalo, new york. >> would you go with a boneless wing? >> thank you. speaking of suicide, this is what the russians committed this week when they broke up a cartel that controlled the price of -- potash the stock is actually flat from where it traded. i'm staying in this trade. >> from fresh water fish, the fashion forward sweat vest.
5:15 pm
>> it's a musky. >> bass. >> that is a musky. >> musky. >> the stock is about sheep skin prices. last two years. >> furry side of the sheep skin feels like. >> if sheep skin is your argument, i think -- when does mike break out the sweater vest again. >> musky. >> i think it was a musky in the end. we got a lot -- twitter. >> you looked at me like i had nine heads. dennis said musky, dennis said musky. >> coming up shares of linkededin, a new high. we're talking social media right after this. [ male announcer ] here's a word you should keep in mind. unbiased. some brokerage firms are. but way too many aren't. why? because selling their funds makes them more money.
5:16 pm
which makes you wonder -- isn't that a conflict? search "proprietary mutual funds." yikes! then go to e-trade. we've got over 8,000 mutual funds and not one of them has our name on it. we're in the business of finding the right investments for you. e-trade. less for us. more for you. the fund's prospectus contains its investment objectives risks, charges, expenses and other important information and should be read and considered carefully before investing. for a current prospectus, visit etrade.com/mutualfunds. ♪ ♪ [ agent smith ] i've found software that intrigues me. it appears it's an agent of good. ♪ ♪ [ agent smith ] ge software connects patients to nurses to the right machines while dramatically reducing waiting time. [ telephone ringing ] now a waiting room is just a room. [ static warbles ]
5:18 pm
shares rising 1.5% today finishing at 38.50. that's the first time it's closed above the price since the day of its ipo. the recent run has been fast and furious. up some 12% this week. up some 40% since reported earnings last week. back to you. >> thank you very much. the top and the bottom lines with the social media site did give current -- >> it's been a monster. we've talked about it. we said in the social media space, we've liked linkedin more than anybody else. we also said last night tonight, meaning this session, was not the day to pile in. huge volume day. today's the day the take profits. it trades lower fra here. >> next up dell shares. a new buy from michael dell in silver lake. under new terms, michael dell and silver lake will pay 13.75 a share share. >> this is probably the knock
5:19 pm
outhere. carl icahn is trying to make some noise, but the company agreed to this. after more rattling and maybe a little litigation this thing gets done. michael dell has his company with silver lake. >> and aig trading up levels not seen since 2011. the company easily beating missed the revenues coming in light, also announceing a new share buyback program, resuming for the first time since 2008. >> in 2008 was the last time they raised the dividend the same day they announced a $7 billion markdown. this is the beginning of the end for the company. a company that's down 95%. i love to bring this up because aig to me put a lot of people urpd a lot of strain because of the risk they took, but that's over. robert is koing a great job. >> like the stock today. >> operationally, these guys are improving. they're going into turkey, china. i think they've got a lot of value and upside.
5:20 pm
i would not be buying the stock but it's improving on a margin perspective. >> still ahead, a slew of big names out with earnings next week. we'll tell you how to play the likes of tesla, priceline and disney. right after this. i've been doing a few things for a while that i really love-- tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 playing this and trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the better i am at them, the more i enjoy them. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so i'm always looking to take them up a notch or two. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and schwab really helps me step up my trading. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 they've now put their most powerful
5:21 pm
platform, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 streetsmart edge in the cloud. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so i can use it on the web where i trade from tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 most of the time. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 which means i get schwab's most advanced tools tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 on whatever computer i'm on. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 it's really taken my trading to the next level. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i've also got a dedicated team of schwab trading specialists. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 they helped me set up my platform the way i wanted, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 from the comfort of my home. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and we talked about ideas and strategies, one on one! tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 really gave my trading a boost. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all this with no trade minimums. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after all, i'm in this to win, right? tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open a schwab account and learn how you can earn up to 300 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 commission-free online trades for 6 months tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with qualifying net deposits. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-888-254-2600 today. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 "first day of my life" by bright eyes
quote
5:22 pm
you're not just looking for a house. you're looking for a place for your life to happen. [ male announcer ] it's time. time to have new experiences with a familiar keyboard. to update our status without opening an app. to have all our messages in one place. to browse... and share... faster than ever. ♪ ♪ it's time to do everything better than before. the new blackberry q10. it's time.
5:23 pm
5:24 pm
going to surprise the street again. i got longer. i'm still long. i got longer today. i think you buy this into earnings and if it bounced up -- i like momentum. in the beginning of the week i said i'm out next week. i'm on vacation. i said let me lighten up here it's kind of silly, then i wound up buying back more than i sold. >> priceline up shares spiked to 30%. so what do you do with earnings? >> it's also up 47%. 2% away from an all-time high it made last month. this is interesting to me. the move looks fairly priced meaning cheap. last week expedia reported disappointed. the stock was down 27% the day after. so to me i think this is one where it's not particularly expensive. these guys are expected to grow 20% a year for the next few years, but i think you want to be careful at levels like this, your all-time highs, so to me i
5:25 pm
think you can play with apgss. >> and disney the lone ranger flop, but strong dividends holding steady. >> you didn't see it enough times, steve. it's going to be a $150 million hit. and play offs also came in weak. this is short-term noise. ultimately, i think this is a company that's -- around 17 times multiple, four bucks next year should be a $70 stock. these are not going to be great numbers. i don't think you need to chase them. >> we're going to squeeze in a tweet. we love it when you tweet. guy, what are you short and long views on pandora? >> i think they report at the end of this month. the shorter view is there's a huge short interest. the stock seems to have trouble at 20.5. long-term view i think you've got to sell this thing, but in the short-term i think you could see a spike into earnings.
5:26 pm
>> you don't know anything about that. >> what? >> i had to tell you about the channels on pandora. final trade time. >> clf. >> tesla. >> fedex was up supposedly because ackerman's buying. i think he shorted. >> fast money, she's riding 212 miles over the weekend in two days. good luck lydia. >> have a great weekend. options action starts right after this. delity, we give you the most free research reports customizable charts, powerful screening tools and guaranteed 1-second trades. and at the center of it all is a surprisingly low price -- just $7.95. in fact, fidelity gives you lower trade commissions than schwab, td ameritrade and etrade. i'm monica santiago of fidelity investments, and low fees and commissions are another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account.
5:28 pm
tonight. separated at birth? no, not those two. these two. because options action has discovered the shocking similarities between tesla and amazon. we'll tell you what they are and how you can make money from it. plus, how would you like to buy disney stock ahead of earnings for just $2? it's not some fairy tale but it is our options trade on the mouse house and we'll break it down and move over carl and george. because
196 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBCUploaded by TV Archive on
