tv Fast Money CNBC August 9, 2013 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
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before we go, let's take a look at the day on wall street. tough day for the bulls once again. we snapped a seven-week winning streak for the market. nasdaq gave up 9 and s&p down by six. stay right here, "fast money" begins right now. live at the nasdaq markets in new york city, times square. let's get sdrat to the big story fast is following tonight. stocks underperforming the market this year, but outperforming for the week. do you buy into these back from the dead trades? guys? >> yeah, there's some out there. what do they call that, a headstone, tombstone? >> sure. >> ironman tombstone. that's interesting.
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>> which is why they led with iron butterfly. that's a great job by our crack crew. this stock had a nice run. the irs came out and said, we're scrutinizing the decision to try to become a reit. that's when the stock fell out of bed. but it held basically the 2012, mid-2012 low, the 28 level or so. i think it's worth a look here. >> what if they don't. >> then you're screwed. >> a binary trade. >> it's a binary trade. the risk/reward, back from the dead, i think it's back from the dead. there you go. >> all right. are alcoa? >> another name that was priced for the apocalypse. out of russia they're talking about stockpiling aluminum to keep the price up. you're seeing that with a lot of different governments. the u.s. government even talking about that with sugar. i'm not a huge fan of alcoa
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itself, but if you start to get government stockpiling aluminum, to support the price, this is going to be great. >> one hell of a warehouse. >> well, run by -- >> run by aluminum. >> it's in detroit, i think. >> they definitely control a lot of supply. in the same vein, the mining space, material space, look at the moves they've had over the last couple days. not necessarily inspired by the chinese data over the last two days. it was good. it showed stabilization. but it didn't tell you to run out and buy every mine. you've seen a lot of short covering. if you look at the chart on cleveland clinic, it has a broken trend back to july of 2011. again, you're seeing ore prices move a little bit higher. their cash costs, margins have gone down. they're very, very levered to the price of iron ore. if it goes any higher, you go with that. walter energy had a restructuring of a lot of debt. that is also why you're playing this one, not because they're
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going to the -- >> it's been materials this week, miners. nice action this week. newcore s, u.s. steel, all of these up. so would you buy into this? >> josh and i, we had a street fight a couple weeks ago about u.s. steel. >> go ahead. >> trading 17 1/4. we talked about exactly this type of situation coming to pass. josh was right for a little bit of time. now all of sudden it's off to the races. >> so we started talking this spring about vaw here on the show. this is the etf that gives you the broadest possible exposure to basic materials and chemicals. all in one vehicle. the two most hated groups. there is a second derivative rotation happening right now, both in terms of sentiment, in re-rating. stocks that are now catching fire. we're switching away from this deflation idea. now we're contemplating the possibility of a return to global growth. pmis overseas are helping that.
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what i would look at here is the vaw, it's a who's who list of stocks nobody's cared about. talk about back from the dead. you're talking about agriculture, freeport mac, and these are the types of stocks that are trading at a much lower multiple than the overall market. some of them pay even higher dividends. very, very depressed in the sales cycle. if they stage a comeback, these stocks can go absolutely wild. if this is your first cycle, your first rodeo, you have no idea what's possible. >> we need to believe that story is intact. otherwise this whole buy into the materials stocks -- >> we don't need to believe in it. we need the market to believe in it. >> same thing. >> what cane said 100 years ago is we're anticipating the anticipation of others. we're talking about a catch-up trade. if the market falls apart, none of this stuff is going to work. but if the market stays the way it is, what's happening here is --
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>> this is important. this is the problem. a lot of people price these miners as if they were going out of business and as if their balance sheets were blown apart. with a lot of these miners, if their balance sheet stays intact and you can ride through this, yes, it's absolutely a great trade. because the world is growing. i was just trying to break out in a term that i could yell louder than you so i could get my point in. when we look at what's going on here, these are not the trades for the feint of heart. not only trying to stabilize, italian gdp upgraded. a lot of the automakers saying they're turning a profit in europe. if you get that, these things are going to move. >> you're also starting to see the consensus trade with the dollar. the dollar has been weak all week. if you get that, some of the commodities could get a bit of a tailwind. >> let's stick with the walking dead theme tonight. are the markets headed to an early great britain.
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mark faber has been on the latest calls. >> we could see a situation like '87, when the market rallies very strongly into august 25th. and then settled by 40%. everybody says sell bonds, buy equities. and when everybody is saying it, you have to be careful. we go straight up into high in july/august, from where we could crash. >> marc faber joins us on the fastline. great to speak with you. >> thank you very much. >> you said yesterday you called for a crash similar to 1987. by the end of the year. so that's a long ways to fall between now and december 31st. is it sort of a black swan event or sort of a natural implosion on what you see fundamentally? >> well, actually, i didn't
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predict the crash, i said that by year end, the market would be 20% lower than it is now. i don't consider that the crash. i consider a crash a 90% decline. and that is not likely to happen, because the feds will continue to print money. i just overheard the previous discussion about some of the resource and materials stocks. i think they're rallying because people are beginning to realize that with all the money printing, that is going on, commodities may bottom out soon, and that assets may be more desirable to own than paper. >> shouldn't that have happened ten years ago? marc, why didn't that happen a year and a half ago? why didn't emerging markets and
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commodities actually start to plunge by the time q-2 was announced and actually not had any benefit for liquidity in the world? >> correct. they had some benefits. the money flowed to emerging markets, but to a limited group of people. and they bought properties in mayfair and in the complications of new york and san francisco. so what i mean is, basically the money printing restores everything. and it's a huge misallocation of capital whereby most of the capital doesn't flow to the ordinary people, to the middle class, to the working class. it flows essentially to the people closest to the money printing. and -- >> so, marc -- >> and of course, also hedge funds. >> marc, if the market is set to
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decline in your view by 20% by the end of the year, does that mean there are other equities markets out there that will benefit from that decline, and that money will flow there? we've seen a pickup from brazil, for instance, in the past week. >> yes. i mean, look, there has been a huge outperformance of the u.s., vis-a-vis emerging markets over the last, say, 18 months. outperformance of, say, roughly 30%. so it's logical that some people say, okay, the u.s. is up there, europe is down, and emerging markets have performed so badly, let's move back into the emerging economy. so i would say this is too early. i think the emerging markets may rebound somewhat, but i think in general, they will head lower. >> all right. marc, we have to leave it there. thank you so much for phoning in. we appreciate your time.
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marc faber, gloom, boom and doom report. so marc obviously likes gold. he also likes gold miners. gold miners have been doing well over the past month compared to gold. >> he also likes -- yeah, go with the gold miners. they've done well. there was a story out last week that the junior miners started to hedge their production again. not a big deal. but one of those signs that it could be the bottom in the gold. if we continue to get a weak dollar, that will certainly help gold. depending how you want to play it, go gdx. >> i just saw him in every single media outlet in gist ten existence in the last two days, and he just walked that back. >> he said 90% is a crash. >> very significant -- >> in 1987 it was a crash, and now he's saying, that was not a crash. nobody can predict these things in realtime.
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the data suggests, the guys that do get them right, they don't get back in anyway, so who cares. most people get one right and miss the next one. if you're investing for retirement, there's 140 million households who currently are, don't worry about that stuff. >> the other interesting thing he said get long treasuries, the long end of the treasury curve. the one place people do not want to be, if anything, the fed has not anchored the long end and possibly some credit risk there. >> don't get long on the long end of the curve. >> it's certainly aggressive. >> the biggest movers of the week. american eagle down 16% this week. >> beyond disastrous. >> alone, yeah. >> it started earlier in the week. >> okay. >> actually, the huge mine data, you get six stocks downgraded which is enough for me.
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i think you actually can get long. >> you've probably got upgrades. everybody's probably aware that russia's broke the cartel that controlled pot ash prices. can potash, canada saying we don't necessarily need to pump and pump and produce. jpmorgan makes the come par i sob to opec, that says within opec, they're the people that crack as much as they can, and control the price. like saudi arabia. potash prices aren't going to zero. >> down 13%. >> this has been one of the hottest sectors in the market this year. almost affording you no opportunities to get in. finally, they came out with a just so-so quarter. you got your chance. we did that. we hit 41 and change on the stock right after the earnings. i think it works out. >> sony down 7% this week. >> tough week for sony. tough week for the japanese market in general.
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you saw the yen getting a lot stronger. this is a name obviously with headline. probably not risk, but with headlines with the opening involved in it. i would stay away from it right now. i think the japanese has more to go on the down side. >> biggest stock moves of the week, and biggest moments we've had right here on "fast money." the top dog of the summer, one pooch can't get enough. >> that dog is in distress. >> it looks like he's happy. >> that's a happy dog? tail wagging. thas a distressed dog because that song is lousy. >> looking so relaxed. >> did you see the shoulders? >> the what? >> actually, i didn't. lululemon. >> i wear the clothes, i own the stock. >> josh, you can't hide. you're from new jersey. >> same thing.
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>> sticking with our bearnado theme, are we on the verge of an even bigger leg lower? >> scary. >> that was the point. >> just wear a lone ranger's mask. >> i was thinking about being tonto for halloween. >> i thought tim was tonto. >> no, you're not a tonto. good week. coming up next, a look at some of the biggest stories in next week's trade. and later, a blog quoted for priceline. could that $1,000 mark be the next stop for the shares. clients are always learning more to make their money do more. (ann) to help me plan my next move, i take scottrade's free, in-branch seminars... plus, their live webinars. i use daily market commentary to improve my strategy. and my local scottrade office guides my learning every step of the way. because they know i don't trade like everybody.
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a recap of 89 day's best moments on cnbc, just in case you missed it. >> much-awaited protective order that would essentially allow a safety capital to keep on trading, despite being under indictment by the u.s. attorney for the southern district of manhattan has apparently been inked. >> yet another letter from bill ackman to the board of jcpenney in which mr. ackman said he's
quote
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calling for a board meeting to be held as soon as possible. he also is now formally asking for the chairman of jcpenney's board, that being mr. tom enjebus, to be replaced by allen. >> we're taking a look at a very smart investor who has a mur occur yal emotional side that is looking like a fraternity house temper tantrum. i don't mean to make light of the last 24 hours, but the headlines that describes what's going on at the board sounds more like the housewives of new jersey. >> the large cap internet stock, this has the most attractive valuation. relative to the growth rate, it's one of the most attractive assets in the internet space. >> you feel like you have to position blackberry as kind of a niche cult product. i don't know if there's room for four big mass markets in the smartphone makers. >> as i said in my opening remarks, i called for a thorough
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review of our surveillance operations before mr. snowden made these leaks. >> let's talk about some of these stories. some of them were big. look at blackberry shares, they finished the day 5%. they were up as 10% on this notion it could be taken private. it's a pretty big company, though, to be taken private. >> that's why you get into some of the shorts. the problem with blackberry, i've fallen prey to this, more bad bottoms than a kardashian fami family -- >> oh. take them all down. >> i thought the realtime scoop that scott had on the air, and i was on set that day, we were watching the stock just rocket higher, and it really seemed it would be questionstrum onboard. he said, no, this is not a done deal. this is not anything that's
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happening soon. today you saw it give up all the gain. that was pretty extraordinary. it's not often you see a large shareholder essentially threaten to get out of his position if there's not a new ceo. >> in other words, that's the biggest moment of the week for me. for stock pickers and watching trading. >> snowden, traitor, not a patriot. and ultimately if you look at the sac story, people stopped trade with sac. there are counterparties that may just say, you know what, i don't really want to deal with this. and that's something to be worried about. >> let's look ahead to next week. cisco out with earnings after the bell on wednesday. what are we expecting? tim? >> a quarter where they blew it out, there are a couple of things we should be expecting. i think people expect an increase in the dib, and sales that will come in between 112, 105. reaffirm slightly less than 5% growth. that they're actually seeing
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some small pickup in municipal spending. if you listen to the street on this stock, this is actually a stock despite a lot of resistance around 2250, this is the top big cap pick anywhere. it's a value call, a valuation call relative to the s&p. two very good quarters in a row. i think they'll be reasonably constructive. your tweets, we're answering them, so stay tuned. "fast money" means trading. everybody's got to bring their best information each and every night. the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. >> it's idea generation. all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. plus, the world has changed. our show has evolved.
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like carpools... polly wants to know if we can pick her up. yeah, we can make room. yeah. [ male announcer ] ...office space. yes, we're loving this communal seating. it's great. [ male announcer ] the best thing to share? a data plan. at&t mobile share for business. one bucket of data for everyone on the plan, unlimited talk and text on smart phones. now, everyone's in the spirit of sharing. hey, can i borrow your boat this weekend? no. [ male announcer ] share more. save more. at&t mobile share for business. ♪ today's trending trade, top names talked about on twitter. we've got to talk about priceline. big move here. lots of chatter on twitter also. hit new all-time highs. priceline is now up 60% in 2013.
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trading near $1,000 a share. >> so, a couple things. in the old days, and for me, the old days are the '90s, this thing would have split ten times already. so people are looking at it at 960 something, and saying it's so expensive. you have to realize they're growing at about a 20% clip, they're going to earn $47 a share next year according to the census. i'm surprised this one is making it to $1,000. ahead of google. i like that google better. priceline, probably like a magnet will hit 1,000. just not my cup of tea. >> let's get to tweets. you tweet it, we trade it. guy? prospects for xerox. >> they just reported a pretty lousy second quarter. margins continue to contract here. unless you're playing for short squeeze, i don't think there are a lot of great -- this was big when i was --
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>> in the '80s. >> '80s are old school for me. you're younger than me. i like to play the short sweep but for no other reason here. you watch earlier this week. >> sausage week. josh, thoughts on vgk? >> i've been in the trade since may. europe is now becoming trendy amongst talking heads on tv, which makes me like it a little bit less. it's an 11 multiple on the whole continent versus the s&p of 13. 3.5% yield for this vehicle. i think it's going to work. >> here's a tweet for everybody on the desk. people can chime in. who on "fast money" would make the next best fed chairman and who would make the worse? >> melissa lee. >> i would be the worst. >> out of the people here, perhaps -- >> i like you in that role. you're cruel and kind. >> cruel and kind?
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>> you would give the market the right amount -- you would give it that steely gaze. >> you have the most discipline. >> oh. >> ben bernanke. >> all right. >> flat-out. >> final trade time here, tim? >> cleveland clips staying the same. >> josh? >> final trade, vgk. we'll see you back here on monday. time to have new experis with a familiar keyboard. to update our status without opening an app. to have all our messages in one place. to browse... and share... faster than ever. ♪ it's time to do everything better than before. the new blackberry q10. it's time. [ male announcer ] you wait all year for summer.
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this is option action. dr. doom strikes again. >> i think lower than today. maybe 20%. >> a bold warning about the '87 crash is burning up the web and freaking out wall street. a shocking chart shows he might be right. we'll tell you how you can protect your portfolio for free. plus, how high? no, not those guys. this stock. because tesla continues to defy gravity. why were all the options traders in a tizzy over this crazy hamburger?
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