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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  August 16, 2013 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT

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of the iphone 5 s, replace the 5. >> smart stick cable controller. >> like the chrome pass an droirkd puts android on your tv. this is a bluetooth keyboard, use your tablet on your tv. this is a raven bluetooth speaker that i like. >> just a speaker? we got to run. this is cool. i like this. how much is this? >> 100 bucks. >> have a great weekend, everybody! thanks for joining us, everybody! and live from the nasdaq market site right here in new york's times square i'm mandy drury, sitting in for melissa lee. happy friday, everybody. our traders tonight are josh brown, dan nave steve grasso and mr. bk. the big story fast is following now. summer bum, the dow and the sap dropping again today, posting their worst three-day losing
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streak since july 2012. the ten-year yield closer to 3% by the day, by the minute it seems, the question we asked tonight is how do you play the selloff and is it the start of an even bigger correction? dan, kick it off with you, you are a smart bloke. >> i try. i'm going to reference my friend, esteemed colleague, josh brown, said on the halftime show, we are in a correction, down 3% from the highs, i think that makes a lot of sense to me i'm not one of these guys who all year long is buying the dips. that's been a big, big mistake. to me right here now, we have a situation where there are key technical levels being broken close bead low or at that 50-day moving average, s & p 500, seen some of the leaders of this year, of this rally start to break those levels. so to me, i think there could be some more downside. i don't think there will be a massive panic. i'm looking about 1600 in the s & p cash a decent level if you want to start buying or nibbling. >> when do we start to see the panic button that instills more
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panic what would make you feel guys, this could be bigger? what would be the red lights flashing to you? >> think the bond market getting out of control. we have seen it come off a bit, driving the bus this whole week this whole month really. now the question is how much can the federal reserve control it how fast do rates go up? look at met life for example. last quarter, they lost more money than they did during the financial crisis because bond rates went up very fast. now, if they have the ability to raise those premiums and offset that and then get some new bonds paying higher fantastic. if the bond market pace of it keeps going at this speed, we are going to have a problem. >> are we looking disorderly or orderly in terms of rates rising? josh? >> no. so i -- >> yes. no. >> i don't know if that is the right question. >> i think you're going to be half-right. >> probably. i usually am only half. brian kelly is exactly right. it is a second ter rifftive issue you not whether or not the 10 jeer at 3% or 2.9.
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it's the speed at which the rate is shooting up. that's what's got to ameliorate in the next week or else it is a little bit out of control that being said i don't think the fed is looking to come in here and make it that much worse, the fed very well understands. not like we are lecturing to the people that have been leading this recovery, they understand that this is all housing you and autos and can't throw it offtrack because they want to have a -- match up their -- >> housing is looking strike shaky. a summer swoon, a seasonal thing? >> the housing stocks are a little bit shaky, they factored in so much of those numbers already. i think today was about summers versus yellow. all the other stuff is or the of you know, unknown, known, sort of ambiguous. if you look at summers what people are worried about. is there going to be a guy who didn't have anything to do with
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this jump in. >> i make the point i think the fed's actions the next six months when bernanke, is out is as clear as mud. we have a fed chairman very focused on his legacy has to literally figure out what the unwind is for one of the largest proprietary trades ever. this week we got really bad manufacturing data from the philly fwoerkd of the biggest market cap companies in the world, cisco and walmart, guide down for the second half of the year. >> doesn't it feel a little too contrived to you, josh's point, all of a sudden now, they are not keeping pen and paper watching what the market is doing, watching what -- # >> the bond market is out of control. >> listen put in perspective.
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it has been a rout in the bond market but not insane not crazy. they still can lose control, like japan can lose control that is the flaw in their strategy, they assume they can always buy the securities. when will they stop printing money? when will they stop doing this? when they have to oil spikes much higher or no longer bore rote money to bite money that they are borough. >> let's get to what's happening out in there in the mark nets more detail, of course. selling off, gold rallying more than 4% this week. so, should you always be buying the momentum? joining us now on the fast line is mark far ver, publisher of the gloom, doom report. i know you like gold i know you pretty much always liked gold. what are you thinking about it now and build the case for us. >> yes i have liked gold for a long time. and i just want to point out that since 1999 the gold has gone up from $251 to now over
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$1700. so, i don't think it's all that bad. what i wanted to say, i think as i pointed out a week ago, that although the -- are only down 3%, we had serious worsen inging of stocks want s & p. home builders are down something like 25%. retail has sold off, as just mentioned. bull market is week as are other retailers, airlines have collapsed and just today and yesterday, food companies were rather week. so it's interesting, the s & p is down 3%, 1,709. and yesterday, we had over 400
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new 12-month lows on the new york stock exchange. that is remarkable. that shows that the internal picture of the market is very different than what the indices showed. the indices, nasdaq s & p, dow, are driven by just a few stocks that are very strong. they are in bubble territory. >> right. i just want to jump in there quickly because in terms of the people sitting at home and watching this, they are thinking, okay so you like gold, some of the smart money doesn't. i mean some of the smart money is actually dumping gold this week. nonetheless, according to you, sir, how would you play it through the gold miners themselves? and name names for us. >> well first of all, i have a preference for physical gold held in a safe deposit box outside the united states and preferably in asia for a variety
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of reasons. but about ten days ago, gold shares became incredibly steep in terms of their valuation compared to the gold price and as you say, some experts don't like gold. well they have never owned an ounce of single gold during gold rate bull market '99 to 2011. i don't pay a lot of attention to these so-called experts, but i know other experts who are actually positive about gold and own it for other reasons than just price going up. they want to have some cash in an acid that is not a financial asset. but anyway i would own physical gold. i think the near term slightly over boat and i personally newman mining freeport, barak and because i'm director of some
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companies, i own, because of this directorship ivan plats, know virginia gold kin cross. >> you know when i made the reference, hedge funds, all were out of their gold. nova gold, kin cross. >> you know when i made the reference, hedge funds, all were out of their gold. >> i don't have a safety deposit box in asia, so i buy gdx. gld is up. i would rather play with the miners on the way up. >> time for pops and drops, biggest movers of the week. bring you up a drop trip adviser dropping 13% down. what do you make of this? >> a stock made new all-time highs, up massively the last few months and the gap two weeks ago on better-than-expected earnings given back here on comment the ceo made at a conference saying
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he doesn't see a great online travel outlook. >> also take a look at this apple popping 11% over the week. josh? >> so people think that carl icahn basically created his own alpha by unveiling this on twitter he was long the stock. i think it was gonna go up anyway, carl gave it the push it needed to get through that 465, 470 resistance in place for a while. congrats to carl congrats to apple shareholders 7500 is probably going to represent a pretty decent amount of support going forward, barring a market crash. >> if ever there was a reason to keep on watching twitter, right, perhaps that picture ipo more valuable. another pop. >> home builders have become oversold. i played it with dr horton but pulte seems to be holding in there retraced all the way back to november 2012 low. i think you are okay to nibble in the home builders. >> anybodile? >> anybodile? >> okay. nibble. bk what but, the one dropping by about -- let me see ex7% over
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the week tesoro. >> off 65 the highs back in may. this is one of the names that got a benefit from west texas crude being cheaper than the brent crude. now that that spread has come in guys having a tougher time. although it is through the 300-day moving average, looked like today we might start seeing some positive -- positive price action so i wouldn't get all short this thing. maybe hold onto it see if it gets back. >> would you nibble? >> would you anybodile? >> >> i don't nibble. i take bites. >> put it into a safety deposit backs. box. >> outside the u.s. into asia? >> the way forward along with fax machines. biggest moves of the week. now take a look at some of the best moments here on the "fast money" desk. let's do the rewind. how about those euro crisis bank stocks? >> those absolutely on fire. >> 21% move in two days. different than the dollar going wherever it is going. >> anyway.
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>> melissa. >> howard. >> my mother's is watching. my mom is watching "fast money." >> better keep it clean. >> how about the weakness, the fact there is no fashion trend? >> colored denim a fashion trend the last couple of years. >> colored bottoms last year were very important. you didn't know where i was going. >> phil wears acid-washed jeans. >> thinking about grasso in a tube top. >> you want to think about that. now i guess i will. congratulations to the ambassador on the birth of his baby boy, 8 pounds 4 ounces 4:44 p.m. yesterday. >> other tweet, does grasso smell as good he's looks? >> the answer is -- >> solar system. >> coming up from google's anniversary to its ipo to jc penney earnings headlines, set to roll the tape in next week's
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trade. plus why one wall street watcher says snout time go abroad for opportunities. we will tell you exactly where, after the break. did you get my email? i did. so what did you think of the house? did you see the school ratings? oh, you're right. hey babe, i got to go. bye daddy! have a good day at school, ok? ...but what about when my parents visit? ok. i just love this one... and it's next to a park. i love it. i love it too. here's our new house... daddy! you're not just looking for a house. you're looking for a place for your life to happen.
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bring it back to the markets, back to our bread and but the per, the dow having the worst week in over a year it may be time to start looking outside of the united states. well, for more let's bring in russ cost rich, chief investment strategist of black rock. why are you looking abroad sir? >> well not because i think there aren't good opportunities in the u.s. but the u.s. has had a very strong run, year-to-date even after the selloff, we are still up 15% on the year. and as a result of that the valuations in the united states while still reasonable and cheap compared to bonds, are a bit stretched compared to other parts of the world. in particular europe emerging markets, looking very inexpensive and some head winds will but many are already reflected in the price. >> hey russ, it's josh brown. you have been talking about europe for a little while, as have i and a few others now it seems to be getting a little too popular for my taste. if you look at the last 30 days the dow is now down 1% the euro
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stock's 50 is up 9% a pretty big performance differential. can that continue or will the dow, being weak ultimately pull down those foreign stocks as well? >> well i think most of the equity markets are vulnerable going into september, a lot of headline risk as you know, some emanating from europe in terms of the german elections. even though europe had a big run, important to put in the context of how much the u.s. has outperformed over the last year how low european valuations are still, relative to the u.s. so, if i look out over the next one to two years, again, i see the risks in europe but i also think you're being paid to take some of those risks, given the big discount to u.s. stocks right now. >> so ross it's brian kelly. why isn't europe the next japan? i mean they seem to be doing the same type of policies. i mean draghi done a fantastic job of talking about things but haven't printed a single euro. why aren't they -- why wouldn't we be worried that every single rally is just going to peter out, like japan did for ten
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years? >> these are excellent questions. look, there are certainly structural issues in europe that make you nervous but things tough differentiate between europe and japan. the omt never actually utilized but you have seen a more aggressive response out of the european central bank than you saw out of the boj back in the '90s. second of all, european demo graph innings are not great, japan is a special case. japan has a very big demo graph inc. headwind worse than anywhere else in the world. and finally i would point out that while i've had low inflation in europe you've never had the type of entrenched deflation that has been evidence in japan now for the most part of two decades. the good news is that japan will hopefully finally be climbing out of that hole but i think it's fair to say europe even with all its issues is not yet japan. >> russ, a good question about europe. to me, you look at this euro box -- euro bank stock index, up 25% the last five six weeks. to me seems like a real chase
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here. what percentage of those gains are you know, is really affecting the european trade right here 'cause to me, a really weird timing on the straight. companies are still in the middle of a deleveraging process that started with deutsche bank a few months ago barclays a few months aug, we know from our experience here in the u.s. this took years to happen. >> i think a great point. actually very much agree with you, which is that the european banks are still the achilles' heel. they never recapitalized the way the u.s. did. they are still vulnerable they have to delever. i think if you are going to be in europe, again, opportunities b selective. rather own german industrial companies, companies basically loved her non-european growth then would own european banks. i think that is one very effective idea on how to play europe without taking on some of that risk. >> that's a good point. russ, thank you very much for joining us. enjoy your weekend. you know what dan, you nearly said european abortion i think you have got safety deposit box on your mind. go out and get one and have it out in asia as well right? next our trade letters lay
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out the final trades ahead of next week. we are back in two.
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just in case you missed some of today's best moments on cnbc relax, don't worry, because here's a look at our rapid fire recap in today's executive edge. >> there's a new report out that says your iphone i was mentioning during the break, your iphone takes up as much energy as a refrigerator. >> what does al gore have to say? he's on the board. >> really inconvenient truth. >> the movie was very loose on
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the facts. it was really not a very fair portrayal of steve wozniak. it did clear up one misunderstood fact where i've always accused of firing steve, the movie shows i actually never did. >> i think the energy of the compression of the fed is gonna make techs higher than they would otherwise, put that under inintended consequence, part 49. it will be up to me to write the book of santelli's metaphors. >> was it at first oversold and now it's appearing to be overbought or is there more room to go here? >> i mean ridiculously oversold. the selling that took it down in april in particular and then the subsequent decline after that were really driven all by the paper gold market. >> the 225 points just the beginning or a continuation of what appears to be the potential correction that people have feared? >> well, you know it's going to be choppy over the next five or
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six weeks. and we know rates are going to move higher. and i'm still, you know projecting down 16,000 to 17,000 year end, i think we could have a very good fourth quarter. >> that is as bearish as i've ever heard jeremy siegel. >> choppy. >> off a cliff for jeremy siegel. >> jeremy in fairness to professor siegel though professor siegel wrote the definitive text bubble op ed in "the wall street journal" a couple months before an epic collapse. so it's -- he gets accused but today, pretty realistic. basically saying, look rates up fast. in '99, when it counted. >> for 14 years. >> look -- >> the thing with -- >> can't be held to the standard of being right all the time like you are but i think it's -- >> at least -- more than once every 13 14 years. just what i'm hoping for. >> when off he got a permeable or perma bear one year you will get it right, right?
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all due respect -- >> if you are a permeable, get it right most of the time. >> in this market. >> three out of four years the market is up. >> look at the shares of chesapeake energy here, carl icahn raising his stake to 9.98% from 8.89%. what do you make of that guys? i don't know whether you have tweeted that out. looks like it was a filing. >> used conventional media to get that out there. he has been in this name carl's had a hot happened see the stock up after hours. natural gas in general looks to me like it's made a bottom, a bit of a scare this week with weather coming through the gulf if we on a longer term start to get that transition to natural gas transportation, this is a place you are going to want to be. >> getting a little bit of a gape there in afterhours trade. time for the final traced. grasso? >> control,ree. >> dan? >> do you not want to own stoungs at zillow, up 200%.
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>> josh? >> best opportunities yet to come in september. not buying anything right this moment. >> tbt, look to buy it back next week. >> i will say our words of the day are nibble and choppy. that does it for us. catch more "fast money" 5 p.m. eastern. "options action" starts right after this break. don't go away.
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talk about a scandal -- >> you were naked in bed with your ex-husband. >> no not that type of scandal. we are talking about a scandalously good facebook trade that can make you money even if shares of the social media giant never go above $38.
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