tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC September 2, 2013 4:00am-6:01am EDT
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exchange. headlines, global exchanges by china and europe. they're continuing to struggle. the u.s. president, there's an american retreat. john kerry defends its decision. >> the united states is strongest when the congress speaks with the president, when the american people are invested because we've had an appropriate
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vetting of all of the facts. >> and once again expectations that verizon is final bely going to take over the british telecom's phone service. there's a $60 billion bridge loan. angela merkel has a debate. welcome to you. we kick off with the eurozone. the final manufacturing. it's helping to rise in the fastest pace in over two years in august and it's the first time since mid 2011. the market manufacturing purchase plaintiff's index from
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50.4 to 50.3 in july. it signifies expansion from contraction since february 2012. we're joined for more. what was the take away from this? it was a bit of a flash. >> it was slightly down from the flash. it's a little bit negative. again, we shouldn't take away from this number the fact that it's a high since 2011. what we've seen the last couple of months, eurozone manufacturer expanding in both of those months. notice the steps hopefully towards a more sustainable economy. >> yes, little steps. it will take some more steps to see if it's more meaningful. >> in the past we've seen this little bit of growth.
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what we've seen is we've seen germany expanding, the netherlands, ireland, austria, and signs that spain has moved back into expansion territory. >> where's still the area of concern for you? >> well, the area of concern ultimately is always greece. even here we've seen some signs that output is still falling. new export orders both stabilizing. a weak point maybe, france weaker than what we were expecting. falling from expansion into contraction. >> companies are taking on staff still. if anyone starts doing that, you get this more self-sustaining. >> it is. it suggests that this output is going to take quite a while for this to start to filter through meaningful job creation.
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again, job market still very much the weak end of the eurozone economy. >> stick around. we'll talk about china and other things. china's factories pick up the pace. hsbc is matching its flash figure by 50.1. it's up sharply from 40.75 in july. despite the strong signals, analysts warn that financing challenges and weak export sales could still be a drag on growth. look, yeah, the one you helped compile is a say. 60.5 for the official number. is china on a better grade trajectory after a couple of months? >> possibly. what we saw is quite a sharp edge contraction. this balances that out. the chinese government has said they want a lower growth pattern, growth profile. they don't want the slowdown to happen too rapidly. what this is suggesting is some
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of those actions have debated the slowdown which allow china to be a stable rate around 7.5% we saw in qt. >> also in india. manufacturing activities shrinking in august for the first time in 4 1/2 years. pmi down. that falling out especially troubling after recent gdp figures. india's economy growing at its slowest pace in more than four years in the june quarter. let's get more from mumbai. >> reporter: the equity markets have given their complete disregard to the gdp as well as for the pmi data. i think with jobs pulling back, the equity markets have gained. so they have shrugged off the gdp as well as the pmi. it came in at a 4 1/2 year low.
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the pmi came around. it indicates that the amount of industrial amount rate shrunk. this is important because july onwards was when the rbi started getting measures to control the ruppe. hence q 2 f 5 is down. it's going to take a lot of significance and prominence simply because there is so much -- there is the industrial activity which is just 0.2% for the previous quarter. otherwise, even if the government can't use to cut its planned expenditure in order to rein in the fiscal deficit, that might be a big concern and, hence, there could be a deceleration. a lot of the big brokerages have cut their gdp estimate from 4 to
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4.2. >> ekta, thank you for that. for more, go to our website. they predict it will worsen in the coming months. others question can this man save the day. the new central bank governor takes the helm at a time of financial crisis in asia's economy. follow us on twitter @cnbcworld. one big corporate story. photo phone and verizon. it will take full control of verizon wireless. they're expected to seal the deal after the close of business in europe today. verizon is going to fund the cash part of the deal with the biggest ever bridge loan of $60
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billion. don't expect the credit rating to drop by 1% as well. that leaves plenty of questions for vodafone and its shareholders. that's the angle we'll see now. what if we get the deal done, then what does vodafone do? >> that's the question. what's the quantum that will come back to shareholders. investors very happy at the price. $130 billion. that's a great deal for them right at the top of wireless, but for them it's about are you going to get enough of a cash injection back to them? then what do they do with the rest of the money? do they go out in europe, have a war chest and buy some of those asset? and italy, europe, they'll strengthen vodafone. if you strip it out, it's around
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220, 230. shareholders quite happy, but we're not clear on what that quantum is going to be yet. >> what they have to do here, they've lost this cash. they have to invest in business and develop some cash generation or if they don't, some people think vodafone might become a target. >> absolutely. plan b, is it going to merge with at&t. we're already hearing at&t is running the slight rule over what will be vodafone. that's natural. it could happen. when i speak to some people close to vodafone, they say, that's still hypothetical. let's deal with the first problem, too. it's good news for the stock market. this is a huge, huge cash windfall that will come into the u.k. markets. that might be the home of a lt t of this investment. we have ipos, stake sales,
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rights issues. this money coming back to investors could be quite important. >> might help sterling out a little bit as well. we'll watch that. plenty more to come from helia. to the middle east. the syrian government has caused the u.s. decision to wait, a retreat. they called it historic. in a number of tv appearances yesterday, john kerry hammered home the message that there was no doubt that chemical weapons had been used. >> use of chemical weapons is unacceptable and we cannot, cannot stand by and allow that to happen and create an impunity for its use. that would be the end of the chemical weapons and that's why the president's made the decision. why go to congress? because the united states of
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america is stronger when the congress of the united states representing the people and the president of the united states are acting together. >> the u.s. lawmakers appear to remain divided on the use of military intervention. republicans and democrats voiced concern. they continue to hold talks today with a number of key players in a bid to win an upcoming vote on the issue. that's the latest out of syria. let's bring you up to speed where we stand for global equities. take a look at the map. here we go. just about 9 to 0 advancers outpacing decliners. it heavily weights to the up side. it is the first full trading day of september so august out of the way. the ftse down 3.5%. the dow down 4%.
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the fact that military action in syria is delayed is helping out. the first day monthly trading for the ftse, up strongly 1.29% already erasing last week's losses. the zetra dax and the ftse also up 1.2%. the asian markets, gains across the board. shanghai, pretty flat. the asx up about 1% and as ekta was saying, despite the fact that we had the weakest pmis, this is up 1% in bombay as well, the sensex. copper up 1.9%. other commodities reacting towards what's going on in sir yeah gold hitting a 3 1/2 month high.
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14.20. take a look on the bond markets. no risk agreements to report and no treasury trading today. we are a little bit low on the yields. we look forward to the manufacturing pmis around 20 minutes or so. the gilts down. dollar firmer during the session. a sterling dollar. 155.42. the pound having the best month against the euro for the year. good performance in august. euro dollar, weaker, 1.32. still to come on today's show, the trade deficit in ind doe nearby yeah has widened to a record $1.32 billion. we'll have the latest. as market fears continue to
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move away by the eurozone, we'll see who will see a slowdown similar to the 2001 market slow down in the u.s. there's news president obama will seek congressional approval before there's any strike in syria. treasury yields, are they high enough? we'll talk with steven majors from hsbc. still to come, angela merkel will defend her reaction. the only tv debate of the general election straight after this. labor day is coming, and that means... car sales events. and now there's a new way to buy: truecar. at truecar.com we'll show you... what others paid for the car you want, so you'll know if that sales price... is a great price. save time, save money,
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german media as well as people i spoke to here on the ground, they're quite undecided who actually has won that debate because there is one opinion poll saying angela merkel was heading the ratings here, but the other one was saying stein brek performed better and has won the debate. it's really i would say a draw after as well watching it. the big issue and the big debate was on the eurozone politics. here, take a listen of what they had to say and where the debate was going. >> they're trying to -- the key point here is whether the announcement of the foreign aid package agrees. it means that it's failed because it's led the countries into a downward spiral. what's needed is a growth program. what's needed is a stimulus.
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>> translator: if you are considering the possibility of another eventual aid package which was already announced came on the entire strategy, then you did not vote for it with conviction and you know that. if it were not for this election, then you would not say that. >> reporter: so in terms of credibility, it appears steinbruk is a very outspoken person. merkel is rebuffing everything, any criticism he was trying to start and get a debate on going. but at the end of the day in terms of sympathy, she polled a lot better than peer steinbruk. at the end of the day what's ma terg is who is able to activate all of those people who are not decided yet to vote and of course who are essentially not
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planning to go to vote on september 22nd. here as well peer steinbruk according to one polling in situ had a lot better standing than angela merkel in terms of with the electorate who was not yet decided. so i guess the race will be a bit tighter for lang merkel after that debate. one guest today in the morning was actually saying that he even could envision a red red green coalition but which would mean that angela merkel might not stay in power, but if that is going to happen, peer steinbruk won't be our next chancellor. there's a lot of instability and really worth while watching what's happening here in berlin, russ. >> thanks for that. what happens when we get this election out of the way? as far as eurozone crisis is
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concerned, they have to get the election out of the way, i wonder if still nothing happens post election. >> well, it depends on how the conditions match up. what we're seeing at the moment are pockets of growth. we're seeing some signs of growth turning to the traditional countries that are involved in bailouts in the past. this is an interesting german election in the fact that the election isn't almost about germany. it's almost an election on europe and what we'll see. whoever gets into power, it looks like it will be merkel and some type of coalition. they will expedite some of the qualities of europe as a whole. >> they're coming out and saying greece should never have been in the eurozone, one wonders whether that then dictates the policy towards that, an actual mindset. it's fairly clear they're going
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to need another bailout, isn't it? another debt writeoff? >> they're leading people and preannouncing that's the most likely outcome just to try to make it easier to implement at the time, but saying greece should never have been in the euro area, there's a goode ba de on that. at the end of the day, the ground is set. whether they should have been in or not, it's more about getting on board without trying to set out the issue across the union. >> stick around for that. also whilst voters were listening to steinbruk attack merkel and her handling of the eurozone, we're watching to see if the spd leader can do anything to close the gap. some german electors are keeping
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a beady eye on merkel. the black red and goal neck class caused a stir. they were wondering whether miss merkel was using jewelry to score votes. do you view it as a sign of patriotism or a bit over the top. e-mail us at worldwide@cnbc.com. or tweet me. what would happen if david cameron wore a bracelet with the colors of the union jack. who knows? still to come on the show, we have manufacturing data out of the u.k. stay tuned to see if the recovery story can be backed up by the worldwide pmi figures. worldwide exchange continues after this.
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>> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange" bringing you business news from around the globe. these are the headlines from around the globe. equities march higher supported by solid manufacturing growth in china and europe. factories in the emerging markets show signs of a bit of struggle. president obama buys more time on syria calling for a vote in congress. it's an historic american retreat. secretary of state john kerry defends the decision. >> the united states is strongest when the congress
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speaks with the president, when the american people speak because we've had a vetting of all of the facts. verizon is going to take over the british telecom's wireless unit. there's a $60 billion bridge loan. german chancellor angela merkel finds herself on the defensive in her only t.v. debate. she's being accused of mismanaging the european debt crisis. we're waiting out for the manufacturing pmis out of the u.k. sterling dollar's higher at 1.5553. we've seen a string of data out of the u.k. the pmi and over the
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month of july, today we'll find out what's happening with the manufacturing. this is all ahead as the next bank of england meeting coming up on thursday as well. rob dawson is with us. we'll get some media reaction from rob as well. we're looking for a figure previously of 54.6. we expect that to tick up a little bit higher. indeed, we have the number. 57.2. last month at 57.2. 54 point po 54.8 in june. again, more hopes that the recovery is broadening. the survey, mixed reading for the bank of england's governor mark karch any. sterling dollar heading higher, 1.5482. rob dowling is joining us.
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this is another better than expected number. how sustainable? how real is this? >> well, hopefully it's very real. what we've seen is not just like one particular sector performing well. we cover eight or nine subsectors in this survey and all of them are reporting greater output. this raises our hopes that this will be much more sustainable. we're also seeing orders rising as well. this means that with the u.k. manufacturing sector looking to building on that. >> what we get is our companies are telling us where they're seeing this demand from. pretty broad based. china, we see china as a big influence. u.s. is a big influence. growth is coming back to the eurozone. if it stabilizes, that's good for the u.k. exporter. >> we talked to investor earning. is there any indication that
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they're starting to invest? are they investing now in plants and jobs and filling out? >> not a great deal. we saw employment levels creep up a little bit higher. i would say in terms of carney's outlook, what we've seen, outlook numbers looking he very bright. job creation, manufacturing weaker than what we would expect given the output numbers. inflation is not one of its highest numbers in years. we saw it surge higher. the acceleration rate is one of the sharpest in survey history. again, that's a battle. >> we're also going to get the latest details on funding for lending as well. the bank of england. as we wait for that, let's get over to helia who's looking at banks. for now, rob, thank you. helia. >> as we said before, u.k. banks
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for sale. vodafone is for sale. look, here's what they could buy. u.k. banks. we have barklay's. that's going to compete with lloyds. virgin money, tsb and williams and glyn. over the last five years it's been a dismal picture for u.k. banks as share prices have plumb meanted. in the case of rbs by friday's close, 90% down on where it was in 2008. even if you look at some of the darlings of the sector, standard charter and hsbc, which have really ridden the crest of emerging market growth, they haven't been without their own banking scandals and the pressure of regulation. so who's going to be buying these banks and why? let's take a closer look at the numbers. we'll be looking at detail all
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week at u.k. banks individually, but overall what are investors going to be looking at? well, first of all, capital. do they have enough capital? that's been the big question for the last five years. if you look at this, even when barclays has had the right quarter one capital, things like leverage one ratios make them tap up more money with investors in the form of rights issue that will follow. in general, if you look at what mark carney said last week about reducing those liquidity factors, it looks like u.k. banks feel a bit more safer. probably well capitalized. we're looking at profit. more importantly you've got the nim, the net interest market. more particularly when you're looking at retail banks. if you have a look at lloyds, that looks pretty healthy at a time when lloyds are probably most people's pick for investment opportunities.
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remember, these retail banks are a leverage player in the u.k. economy. as we've seen from the numbers. if the u.k. economy is in growth and we could see interest rates spike higher, then these retail banks really could deliver some returns for investors. deutsche bank did a piece of research a while ago saying actually even though return on equity overall has been quite low and may not return to the right place that we saw before the financial crisis, when you look at retail banks alone, the returns over the last ten years have been about 17%. very high. but let's just look at that roe. are they going to get back to levels seen before the financial crisis or are things like regulation going to really stunt them? if we bring up the risk charts, any moment we'll see that. places like rbs we'll know so much about. you have capital.
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you have i.t. systems which have really made banks, banks like co-op which is struggling now to create the right i.t. system. conduct risks and regulation and, of course, compensation. now later in the week we'll be drilling down into each of those banks and the numbers and whether you should be putting your money into those banks. back to you, russ. >> good stuff. thanks, helia. helia will be drilling down into more information. we'll be looking at lloyds on wednesday, thursday it's barclays, friday, standard charter and hsbc as well. the latest detail from bank of england on funding for lending. they cut net lending by 2.3 billion pounds since june 2012. the bank of england said banks have drawn down 17.6 billion
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from fls and net lending by fls in q 2 lending was 1.6 billion. helia has joined me at the desk for reaction. >> the problem is, when is that going to start trickling down. we've all seen some of these measures, the fls scheme and thely quit at this bringing numbers down. are they going to get into the real economy? that's the big question. last week we saw if banks are allowed to reduce their liquidity buffers, will this mean they'll go out into the market and start lending to smes? >> not really. you're missing the point. which is that capitol -- for smes, have you to put a lot of capitol aside. it's not that easy. if you sawed off that, you could do it. just on the banks, if you look at mortgages, there is a real opportunity for growth. i mean, i know everyone is
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talking about the housing bubble and there are concerns but this is one of the key areas investors are looking at and thinking is there growth for u.k. banks and in mortgages there definitely are. you've got about 4 trillion pounds worth of houses in the u.k. and 1.5 trillion of them has no mortgages attached to it at all. if you think we're 10% bigger in the mortgage market today than when northern rock failed, you have to understand that that mortgage market is destined to grow. as those transactions increase we'll see a boost there. >> they'll come out and make it very clear in that space that that's the one area they would use market potential if things were getting out of hand. >> absolutely. the other side of that, if you're looking at the negative angle, if interest rates do go up, it possibly means that impairments go up and the loan loss ratio deteriorates. >> i think what he was saying is
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we won't have enough interest rates to curb the market. that's the new departure, isn't it? we won't put up interest rates to curb the housing market. we would do something else. we don't want that much of an investment. >> exactly. but are these tools enough because look again, positive data. can he keep up with forward guidance? >> yeah, lots of questions. we might get more from the bank. we might not hear anything. we'll wait for the minutes. european equities are firmer starting off september with a big jump higher. the ftse is up which wipes out the losses we saw last week. we were down 3% in august. the ftse. all up 1.5%. in the bond markets, gilt yields. 2 point poip 8%. that is the case. sterling jumping as well post the manufacturing treasury markets closed for the labor day.
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currency markets, dollar yen is firmer, up to 99.30. ftse 155.36. syrian government has called the american decision to delay military action for voting congress as an historic american retreat. speaking yesterday, syria's deputy foreign minister said obama's hesitation is because of a lack of evidence that the regime had used chemical weapons. at the same time, russia continues to voice opposition to intervention in syria. speaking earlier today the country's foreign minister said he was absolutely unconvinced by the chemical weapons claims. this is china's foreign minister said the government was concerned over the potential for a unilateral attack. nbc's ayman mohyeldin joins us. ayman, what is the sense there as we wait for a congress vote?
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>> reporter: well, right now across the region, at least among those that were allied with the syrian government, they are describing this as an historic retreat. in some ways it's being portrayed as a victory for their argument that they did not use chemical weapons. that is how it is being projected by the syrian government. meanwhile, you have countries that are part of the arab league, the foreign ministers of the arab league. they met in cairo. they issued a very tough statement, one that said the international kplun knit at this must hold them accountable for the use of chemical weapons. it implied and approved the use of force saying they must do whatever they can to punish the syrian government. you get two different
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narratives, one coming out from the arab league to say they want action against the syrian government. that's certainly how it's going to unfold in the political arena in the united states. it is being projected as a victory. across the board in general there is a bit of a sense of relief that this country has averted yet another military confrontation. >> ayman, thank you very much for that. that's the latest on the latest from syria. joining us is professor michael hudson director of the middle east institute. and middle east correspondent is with us. let's kick off with you. you just heard what ayman said, i hope, about the arab league coming out. how important is that? what does that mean? >> well, i think that the important part of that was the vague part. they did not specifically endorse the use of force and
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that speaks, i think, to their lurking fear that were they to do so, they would be on the wrong side of public opinion across the arab and islamic world which harking back to old colonial times does not really like the idea of a western military intervention in their territory. at the same time, of course, many of them want it. the saudis want it more than the egyptians. they come out with a rather vague endorsement. that's not enough to give a lot of backing, i think, to what president obama really must want to have but he doesn't have much of, international backing or even in the united states backing. >> where does that leave him? >> it leaves him in a mess. it leaves him looking indecis e indecisive. he's looking as you heard from your correspondent in beirut, the syrian government is crowing about this. the syrian opposition is biting its nails wishing for more.
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in the united states bypassing this to congress in what seems to many people to be a kind of last-minute failure of nerve, he's taking a big chance that he can get a sufficient number of democrats let alone democrats in the house and senate to come across with a ringing endorsement for syrian action. the longer it is delayed it seems less and less likely to be really effective. the longer it lasts the slap on the wrist seems to get milder and milder. >> michael, i just want to ask. how assured is the success of the president? he's taking this to congress and he's probably going to end up having to convince a great majority of his own party that this is a good idea. how would you gauge that? do you think that he'll be successful right off the bat or do you think this will be a hard slog for him in congress? >> i think it's going to take a
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while. they'll propose their own amendments. you have to get it through both houses. it's pretty clear that there are people on democratic and republican sides that are agreeing that they don't like the proposal that the president has put in force. some people among the democrats and republicans say that it needs to be more specific, it's too open ended. you have a few people such as senator mccain and some others who are -- even on the democratic side who are saying if this is going to work it has to be more decisive than what the president is proposing. he's left caught in the middle looking a bit confused, i'm afraid. >> how do you think this is going to actually play with the american people? we've seen in the u.k. the british people were not behind getting involved in syria. we see in france despite the rhetoric from president holland, how do you think this will play with the american public?
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>> well, as far as we know from the public opinion polls that have been taken recently, the american public is far from enthusiastic about a military involvement. even though the idea of chemical warfare, which, you know, elicits a certain horror among most people, raises the support level somewhat, it is still, you know, very feeble. maybe 50%, maybe a little bit more, maybe a little bit less, but what it is not, i think, and what it is not likely to be is a ringing endorsement of some decisive american action. there are some people both on the republican side but also among liberal democrats, if you look for example at the op ed columnists at the union times or international "herald tribune" recently who are saying it's not an unlimited strike with a few cruz missiles that is needed, it is actually a sustained no fly
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zone with a strategic end in mind. then you have people that are on the -- maybe to the left who have the interesting idea that what is really needed now is a political solution and if obama were to really do something interesting, he would actually begin to engage the iranians who, after all, are the ones who have a great deal of influence over syria in hopes of finally setting the stage for a political and diplomatic dialogue that will lead to some kind of compromise which i think most military and many political experts think is the only way that this can end. it's not going to end in any foreseeable future on the military field. >> professor, thanks for that. professor michael hudson joining us from singapore. thank you as well. over to australia where the concern appears to be sticking close to home. tension has turned to other sectors like manufacturing to support growth. with only six days to go before
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people head to the polls. matt taylor has the report. >> unfortunately part of this transformation means that we will cease our manufacturing operations in october of 2016. >> reporter: it's a kick in the teeth for australia's manufacturing sector already impacted by rising costs in the strong australian dollar. ford's announcement that it will cease production in australia in 2016 after more than 90 years. it's a big deal here in regional victoria where part of ford's australian operations are located. they've had a long and colorful history with the automotive giants ford and general motors. while ford plans to exit, general motors says it will stay for now, but it's been a hot issue this election. >> mr. abbott, i care about auto
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industry jobs. do you care at all? >> reporter: the opposition says it will continue to support the australian car industry but not at any cost. >> it looks like he's frantically running down the street after the auto manufacturers with a blank check in his hand. >> reporter: and in a blow to the struggling industry, the government's announcement that it would make changes to the fringe benefits tax as part of the move to scrap the fixed carbon price has caused more heart ache. >> in just the last week ford has slowed production. here at one of its major facilities in julong, the moves will affect 750 workers and there will be 6 rolling stop pages. >> reporter: the opposition plans to reverse the tax changes but in the meantime ford says workers will receive just 60% of their pay while the outages take place. a move that's likely to impact the labor party's chances of
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holding on to the country's most marginal seat. in geelong, matthew taylor, cnbc. indonesia's inflation has risen. there's a new way to buy a car. it's called truecar. and truecar users... save time and money. so when you're... ready to buy a car, make sure you... never overpay. visit truecar.com today. time to have new experiences with a familiar keyboard. to update our status without opening an app. to have all our messages in one place. to browse... and share...
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>> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange." the government is promising quick action to clean up this fukushima nuclear plant after radiation levels spiked 18 fold. we have the story from tokyo. high mikika. >> reporter: hi, ross. prime minister abe said they need to take quick results. he'll deal with a growing amount of radioactive water at the plant. up until now the contaminated water was dealt with the plant's operator tokyo electric power or teppco. since multiple leaks have been detected from which 300 tons of contaminated water may have escaped, the government has decided to take more of a proactive role.
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it plans to dip into a government fund to help deal with the radioactive water. they're going to build a huge ground underwater to stop the water from flowing into the ocean. the city of tokyo is warming that the leak may harm its bid for the 2020 olympics. this shows tokyo's levels are at par or below new york, paris or london. >> makika, thanks for that. more economic red flags are going up in indonesia. a surge in imports led to a record trade deficit of $2.3 billion in july. investors have become increasingly concerned about the deficit. august inflation has clocked in as well at its highest level at an annual rate of 8.79%. manufacturing took a deep dive with pmi hitting a 50 month low.
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joining us from tokyo is terry nash, managing director at ihs. tony, thanks for joining us. i spoke to the deputy governor of the indonesia central bank. clearly they had that emergency meeting and put up rates. how much control have they lost there? >> they've lost a fair bit. you know, they raised the benchmark to 7% so half a basis point rise and so what's happening is they're trying to control this inflation but you're also going to start to see some of the corporate lending come down as well, corporate borrowing come down as well. they're really fixed within kind of a narrow band of what they can actually do because of the currency issues and because of the slowing manufacturing. i think some of the issues around manufacturing have to do with china. china isn't necessarily buying
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as much. you're seeing exports decline and interest rise. >> what's the biggest problem for them, inflation or the deficit? how do they combine the two? there is a school of thought here, look, don't put up interest rates. let the currency just weaken. >> the currency weakening is a slower process. as it rises it will haelt itself over time. inflation will rise. our view is we'll hit one month wherein flags hits about 10% for the end of the year. we've raised this to 7.5% for the full year. you know, there have to be some things to lower that overheating economy or overheating inflation environment in the near term which is what they're doing with
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the benchmark rate. >> how much of that inflation is imported inflation? >> it is. a fair bit of it is. imports are up 6.5% this year. it's imported largely because of or in the last few weeks because of the devalued currency. the currency is down about 13%. until today it was down 13% on year against the dollar. today it fell another 2% so the ruppe really isn't doing well. we're starting to see secondary impacts of inflation. in august part of the impacts were doing around the transportation, food, clothing, so on. because of the economy, we're starting to see the secondary impacts of inflation in indonesia as well. in june they lifted a subsidy on fuel. that's still hitting the monthly inflation. >> tony, good to see you. thank you. >> thanks a lot.
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>> stocks shared in the recent activity. shares down as much as 10% after the brokerage was slapped with unprecedented fines and executive suspensions. today two more executives handed in their resignations. the penalties estimate from a trading error. the csrc found the brokerage was found involved in insider trading after if placed enormous etf buy orders. as far as the agenda in asia tomorrow, reminder of what's on. central asia markets could give us clues on what happens with the future. maybe more cuts. in china, the seventh round of free trade talks with south korea kicks off with market deregulation and in japan, factory telling us its august sales figures. while most voters will listen to steinbruk attack
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merkel, they're watching to see if the spd leader can do anything to close the gap. some german election debate viewers were keeping a close eye on angela merkel's neck. the reason is her necklace. they even launched a twitter feed for her patriotic black red and gold necklace. twitter users are debating whether the chancellor was using jewelry to score votes. we're asking you, what do you think about merkel's accessory of choice? is it a show of patriotism or over the top. e-mail us or tweet us. still to come, syrian government's label the obama administration's decision to delay action as an historic military retreat. more after this.
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vetting of all of the facts. >> shares of vodafone rises. in a $130 billion deal which will be announced today. cnbc learns it's lined up a $60 billion bridge loan. the german chancellor angela merkel finds herself on the defensive with her only debate with peer steinbruk. he accuses her of miss managing the european debt crisis. >> announcer: you're watching world wild -- "worldwide exchange." "worldwide exchange" is an extra hour today. the united states is taking an extra break signifying the end of summer. the ftse is off 3% in august. the first trading day of
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september. the central dax up 1.7%. really strong pmi out of the u.k. the fastest pace in 20 years. the cac karant. and that pmi for china is helping copper up 1.7%, but as we move further and further away from any imminent action in syria, spot gold is down to below 1400. last month we hit a high of 1420. oil we were 116 last week.
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nymex down to 106 spot 6. bull markets, no treasuries trading. 4.4%. gilt yields higher. the pmi numbers, 2.85% as well. it's worth pointing out the u.k. data. take a look at the currency markets for you. we've got sterling over here. 155.77 is where we stand. we're about 155.40. also up to two-month highs as well. that's currency markets. the syrian government has called the u.s. government's decision an historic american retreat. speaking yesterday, they seau bomb ma's hesitation was due to lack of evidence that the syrian regime had used chemical weapons. john kerry hammered home the message that there was no doubt that president bashar al assad
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had used the deadly nerve agent sarin against its own people. >> use of chemical weapons is unacceptable and we cannot, cannot stand by and allow that to happen and create an impunity for its use. that would be the end of the chemical weapons norm and that's why the president has made the decision. why go to congress? because the united states of america is stronger when the congress of the united states representing the people and the president of the united states are acting together. democrats and republicans voiced concerns about using force. joining us for more, dorothy
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schmidt. dorothy, thanks for joining us. it appears that the u.s. government's position is weakening at the moment. how do you see this now playing out? >> the u.s. is figuring out intervention in syria. they will have to do that without any u.n. permission, meaning they have to build a coalition. it's very difficult these days to assemble a decent number of countries that would like to go for such an adventure in syria. as you probably realize, france by now is the only strong ally and standing beside the united states. what's very interesting today is that the french is massively wondering is whether or not they trapped hollande into wondering whether he wanted to go for this
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intervention. >> is there support for a strike in france or not? >> there is no public support for a strike. the public opinion is against it. and hollande presently has to handle the very difficult internal fights, the economic crisis and he actually is betting on his past success in mali that an international and other positive outcome in the international realm would help him consolidate his position, his internal position. it's very unsure. the french position is now really head on criticizing the president. >> considering the fact that the french president is unfortunately wondering where obama has left him in all of this, considering that fact, what kind of outcome is he looking for on wednesday after this debate? >> well, of course hollande
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hopes that his majority will support him and that exactly just like obama said and john kerry and barack obama said that the opposition will be stronger with the congress support, the reality is that the president is trying to -- the french president is trying to build a consensus in france, but i'm afraid the presidential position itself is not very consistent. i think that's the main trouble actually presently with the french intentions is that we don't know exactly what outcome they're looking for. there seems to be disagreement between the president and the foreign minister in france. there has been some declassified information leaked trying to prove that the syrians hold a stockpile of chemical weapons. this all seems to be preparing for the intervention. there are lots of disagreements going on. >> dorothy, what does this mean
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if there's broad condemnation of the use of chemical weapons and yet no one wants to take any action. what does that mean? if that is the case, what does that mean for the future and those who wish to perpetrate more war crimes as even the arab league have described it? >> yes. what's absolutely terrible is that we realize that declaring the use of chemical weapons was a red line was actually extremely risky and we've been discussing, actually -- we've been debating this around for almost two years now and we have come to the point when the russians are still contesting the use of chemical weapons in syria. also because themselves, they're stereotypically against it. the old powers now seem to be completely incapable of controlling the way the
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stakeholders in syria are wagging war. and this means that in the end of the diplomatic horizon is not very clear and the final solution would involve russia and iran. the american discourse and stance, presently the american leadership says that during this intervention will be a very important way to also deter iran from going further in their own nuclear program, but i'm very much unsure that they will manage to scare the iranians away from trying to play their leadership in the middle east in the next decade. >> thanks for that. dorothee schmid. we're in beirut gathering the
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latest sentiment from the middle east. ayman. >>, we've heard from the arab league. hopefully you can hear me. sum up what you've heard this morning. >> reporter: well, the arab league has come out with a statement essentially calling on the international community to use deterrent action in punishing the syrian government. in fact, the head of the syrian national council also addressed the body in which he said that the international community must do more as punitive measures against the syrian government. that's been the position of saudi arabia. they've really been pushing for the international community to lift up to the charter of the organization to protect civilians and to no longer hide behind the excuse that military action inside syria would
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constitute foreign military intervention. that's a term that's been used in this region mostly in reference to the way the u.s. has conducted foreign policies. there seems to be a consensus that they want more action from the international community and so certainly they are now throwing their weight behind president obama's call for a possible military strike as early as next week once the u.s. congress convenes and discusses the matter. >> ayman, thanks for that. that's the latest from beirutbe. we apologize for the delay on that. the russians have come out saying that u.s./syrian strikes would delay the peace for a long time. they condemn the chemical attacks. the arab league is a broad church. take different views of this. if there's broad acknowledgment
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this chemical attack took place, there's broad acknowledgment something should be done, there's no broad acknowledgment there should be a strike, i don't know where that leaves people. >> you have the president of the united states trying to make this as a domestic issue. he's making sure if there is a strike that it's couched within the white house. >> not a commander in chief position to take. the u.s. president is a commander in chief. he should be able to take executive actions. >> the best description of what happened over the weekend, the u.s. said the president had his shot and he blinked. this is major confusion with the international community, major confusion within the u.s. it's by no means assured that the president will get the support he's looking for. >> it could make things worse. meanwhile, i wonder what the saudi -- we heard earlier from someone who said the saudis would like action to be taken.
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>> exactly. for the last two years they have been arming the syrian opposition in various ways. they have a vested outlook in a post assad regime. on the corporate front, vodafone's board met to a further $130 billion sale that would see verizon retake over the arm. plenty more on the megadeal right after this.
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building animatronics is all about getting things to work together. the timing, the actions, the reactions. everything has to synch up. my expenses are no different. receipt match from american express synchronizes your business expenses. just shoot your business card receipts and they're automatically matched up with the charges on your online statement. i'm john kaplan and i'm a member of a synchronized world. this is what membership is. this is what membership does.
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an extra $10 billion add-on transactions. verizon is funding the cash part of the deal with the world's largest $60 billion bridge deal. verizon expects to see its credit rating to drop by 1 notch. the question for vodafone is what happens now once they close this deal. whatever happens, they get a big up front payment? >> yes. yes. >> 20 billion? >> yes. i think we're -- we don't know the quantum that they're going to give back to shareholders. what they'll give back in the special dividend, who knows. >> $60 billion in cash -- >> i think shareholders i spoke to were looking for something more like half. >> really? >> yeah, quite aggressive.
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the idea that you give it all back. we'll let you keep some of it if you want to go out and do acquisitions in europe and defend your position in places like italy, spain, eastern europe, some contact. it also begs the question, does vodafone itself become a big target? >> the other question is do they want to reinvest in the states. i understand they're buying cable networks. you have to compete and you have to become a quadruple play. but every time i listen to vodafone, they talk about how weak the markets are. maybe that's a good time to invest. is there an argument for saying they should look again at further investments? t-mobile, is it worth having a chat? >> i think for them the u.s. plane would be a potential merger or selling themselves to someone like at&t, but of course what you just said, which was they're looking at all of these fixed line and cable acquisitions. that's not very attractive to a
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player like at&t. they're really interested in the wireless business. that's what they're looking for in europe. there are many american buyers who are looking in europe because, as you said, valuations are low and there is opportunity for consolidation even when competition authorities here are difficult. there are deals. >> there's liberty but i don't think there's -- >> liberty global. >> there's too much overlapping good markets. >> people talk about liberty global. i don't think it's a realistic option. but it's out there. the question is how many deals can voda do themselves before someone snaps them up? >> i am happy for the dear old investment banker who's been a bit out of the woods. >> ubs and goldman sachs? >> i feel very happy for them. thanks for that.
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fire. spd's rival accused her of giving them a deadly dose of austerity. they clashed on low wage jobs and syria. a snap poll in the aftermath appeared that steinbrueck had edged her out. annette has been watching it. is steinbrueck seen as a winner and if so, has it made any difference in the polls? >> reporter: it's very funny with the polls. there are two polls. one poll says merkel is the winner and the other poll says steinbrueck is the winner. take your pick. what happened yesterday, steinbrueck's performance was better than expected. merkel kind of started off a bit on the lame side of things but got better during the course of the debate at least what i saw. take a listen first of all what
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they had in terms of positions with them. >> translator: germany's the motor of growth. germany is the anchor of stability in europe. i want to continue this cause. i think what we've shown has convinced people. >> translator: i'm motivated by the image of a country which is economically strong. you can invest more in its economic wealth and social cooperation. i have an idea of a country in which everyone is able to make a living from their work. >> reporter: it will be the big question whether steinbrueck is rising in the polls and stretching angela merkel's current majority polls. i caught up earlier with the deputy leader of angela merkel's party. i asked him whether the chances of a grand coalition are better? >> it's not our aim.
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we want the same kind of coalition with the liberals again. we have the lowest unemployment rate in europe. we have unemployment that's not existing anymore which is really successful. we are fighting to have the same coalition again. if it is not otherwise possible, yes, indeed, there will be a grand coalition. >> reporter: so what is really clear that peer steinbrueck is not going to work under angela merkel and if we are going to see a grand coalition, he ruled that out wince again during yesterday's debate. he made pretty clear he's not going to go into the coalition with the far left but there is a likelihood of peer steinbrueck stepping away and the head of the spd leading coalition talks.
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not to make things too complicated, but there is still a lot of insecurities surrounding that election in september. because the option is more tax hikes in germany and more social spending. there are people who are depending on social subsidies. for entrepreneurs that would be bad. angela merkel, of course, is trying to play that role now as well as upping the threat of such a coalition outcome. fox is discussing with angela merkel's campaign team that they are now getting more aggressive in order to activate those voters who are not decided yet. one of the polls today was as well saying that peer steinbrueck scored better with those people who are not decided yet for whom to vote.
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that is of course very bad for angela merkel. there is a lot of room to maneuver for the next three weeks. >> annette, thank you for that. plenty to come on the german reactions. whilst most voters were watching steinbrueck attack merkel, some german election voters were looking at merkel's black red and gold necklace. what do you think about her accessory choice? do you feel it is a sign of patriotism? was it a bit over the top? get in touch with us via e-mail or tweet. still to come, do emerging markets face a slowdown similar
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to the 2001 u.s. recession? we'll be joined from paris by tristan abbott to see how investors should deal with the flight of fear from the eurozone to emerging markets. building animatronics is all about getting things to work together. the timing, the actions, the reactions. everything has to synch up. my expenses are no different. receipt match from american express synchronizes your business expenses. just shoot your business card receipts and they're automatically matched up with the charges on your online statement. i'm john kaplan and i'm a member of a synchronized world. this is what membership is.
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global markets and equities head higher supported by solid manufacturing growth in china, the u.k. and europe. most factories and emerging markets show signs of struggle. president obama buys more time on syria calling for a vote in congress and prompting damascus to declare an historic retreat. secretary of state john kerry defends the decision. >> the united states is strongest when the congress speaks with the president, when the american people are invested because we've had an appropriate vetting of all of the facts. vodafone, can it rise on expectations that verizon is going to take it over in a $130 billion deal. cnbc finds out that it's lined up a $60 billion bridge loan. angela merkel finds herself on the defensive. peer steinbrueck has accused her of miss managing the european debt crisis.
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>> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange" bringing you business news from around the globe. okay. european he can witt its not doing too well in the month of august. u.s. markets closed today for the holiday. we are up. the ftse is up 1.28. the cac up. we've wiped out those losses already in this first day going up 1.5%. helped along by pretty good pmis. the european pmi, 57.2 in august. new orders in factory output. we saw hsbc china pmi up. the eurozone's pmis did expand
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just about where we were with the flash numbers. the shanghai composite index ending fairly flat. despite the fact that we had weak pmis in india contracting for the first time in 4 1/2 years. that's where we're trading with equities. we've been asking what do investors do at the start of the new month. here's a recap of some of the thoughts we've already had. >> going into the nonfarm payroll numbers, we think that will be good enough for september tapering to happen on the 19th of september. that's ultimately a dollar positive. we'll see u.s. interest rates rise. we would be using any dollar selloff that we see to initiate dollar longs, particularly against high yielding currencies in gt such as the ace stralian dollar and the kiwi dollar.
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i think now lloyds has performed extremely well. the ets continues to rise. we're looking at plus 9.5% eps on lloyds right now. analysts, they are always looking at the sustainability of a dividend. i think across the board it's pretty sustainable. none of this rises. it's predicted by us to be unsustainable. other sectors such as utilities we can say, wow, don't look at the headline dividend yield. look at the sustainability. in this, they all look sustainable to us. the news on recovery continues. the pmi grew its fastest. strong markets have helped the pmi index. there was improvement in all major economies except france.
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analysts are waiting for a pickup in august growth. it could mean manufacturing might continue into september. i mentioned the china pmi. factories continue to pick up the pace. hsbc matched its flash figure up 30.1. china's index was up. despite the strong signal weak export sales could be a drag on growth. india's growth hit. the pmi plunged 48.5, far worse than the slight dip analysts were expecting. the ford export orders has been difficult. more economic red flags are going up in indonesia.
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a surge in imports led to a trade deficit of $2.3 billion. they've become concerned with indonesia's rising deficit. inflation has clocked in at its highest level rising 8 point poip 79% on the year. manufacturing took a deep dive. pmi hit a 3-month low. tristan is joining us from europe. is there any sense that this will ease? what will change this around? >> you have to make the distinction between the cyclical approach and the structural approach. the fact that when you see even the recovery of leading indicator as you see this morning in china, it does not change the picture. you have a positive benefit for the eurozone but negative
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benefit for china. you have to pay for the consequence of the over investment cycle. now you enter a new phase in which you see gdp growth driven by lower investment. we all have the idea that the shelf investment in gdp is too high for young countries. you have to pay one day for that. the consequence, that's a new phase. it means the cycle of uncertainty and now you have some uncertainty coming from this zone. >> so what does that now mean for european stocks that have been exposed to emerging markets? >> for sure, they become at risk. the opportunitilize in the divergence between expectations. when you look at expectations on domestic assets compared to
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expectations on global gruff assets, the digest is really, really big. it may be a bit contrarian, but we like to buy domestic assets and to sell global stocks. automobile, personal house goods. you understand this is not a classic approach. this is not about low bidder versus high bidder, this is about global. if you look at the sector in the past months, you can see that equity markets are flat, slightly negative. you see the worst performer, it is food and benchs and among the winners you have telecom maybe for specific reason, but i think even if you look at the performance within the sector, you can see there is some value and this is being unlocked given the positive benefit you have for this region.
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>> you're almost calling for a reversal of where we were before the financial crisis where people would say you need companies with the international growth. you're almost flipping that around. >> exactly. the theme is back but in the other way. you know, there are a lot of investors that think that low valuation and high growth is a kind of insurance from an investing perspective, but this is into the the case. >> sorry, we had a slight problem with your mic. we'll leave it. thanks very much for leaving it. now the biggest transfer in football history has finally gone through. garrett bell has moved from tottenham for 89 million pounds, 100 million pounds. he'll be unveiled to fans in the spanish capital. he'll earn 300,000 pounds a weak. there we go. happy days. see, there is some money in
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investors redeemed nearly 17 billion in etfes and equity mutual funds in august. this is versus the record $40 billion in inflows seen during the month of july. trim dps -- u.s. he ca smps. eq down in august. italy is introducing a tax on high frequency trading levies will be brought. there will be fixed charges for equities and all the changes in cancellations for high frequency traders will be taxed at a rate of 0.02%. this is ahead of an e.u. proposal next year. in australia, political
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concerns appear to be sticking closer to home. they're turning to other sectors like manufacturing to support growth. with only six days to go before voters head to the polls, job prospects could swing the writings. we have more on this from geelong outside of melbourne. >> unfortunately, this means that we will cease our manufacturing operations in october of 2016. >> reporter: it's a kick in the teeth for australia's manufacturing sector already impacted by rising costs and the strong australian dollar. ford's announcement that it will cease production in australia in 2016 after more than 90 years. part of ford's australian operations are located here in victoria. they've had a long and colorful history with the automotive giants, ford and general motors. they've offered generous packages over the years to ensure local production is
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maintained. while ford plans to exit, general motors says it will stay for now, but it's been a hot issue this election. >> mr. abbott, i care about auto industry jobs. do you care at all? >> the opposition says it will continue to support the australian car industry but not at any cost. >> it looks like a bloak frantically running down the street with a check in his hand. >> reporter: the government's announcement that it would make changes to the fringe benefits tax as part of the move to scrap the fixed carbon price has caused more heart ache. >> in just the last week ford has slowed production. here at one of its major facilities in geelong. the moves will affect 750 workers and there will be six rolling stop pages, a direct result of the government's changes to the fringe benefit tax. >> the opposition plans to reverse the tax changes, but in
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the meantime ford says workers will receive 60% of their pay while the outages take place, a move that's going to impact the country's most marginal seat. if you're joining us, a recap on the headlines. the pmi data has lifted equities. syrian government has claimed america has already conceded defeat as president obama delays military action. peer steinbrueck does better than expected in the tv debarrett with angela merkel's tv debate. plus, vodafone's corporate deal right after this. building animatronics is all about getting things to work together.
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the timing, the actions, the reactions. everything has to synch up. my expenses are no different. receipt match from american express synchronizes your business expenses. just shoot your business card receipts and they're automatically matched up with the charges on your online statement. i'm john kaplan and i'm a member of a synchronized world. this is what membership is. ths what membership does.
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vodafone and verizon communications are close to closing a huge deal. the groups are expected to close the deal after the close of markets. there is $60 billion worth of cash and $60 billion in verizon stock and also $10 billion in add-on transactions. the world's biggest ever bridge loan of $60 billion. that will be underwritten by jpmorgan, morgan stanley, barclays and bank of america. verizon expects to see its credit rating to drop by more than 1 notch. guy, let's kick off with you first of all.
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130 bid. that was at the top end of expectations. what do shareholders want with the cash they're going to get back? >> yes, you're right. it is the top end of expectations. the key thing shareholders wanted, something around 70% to come back to shareholders over the next two to three year time period. >> how much in a one off payment. >> there's $40 billion sterling. that's the top end of the range as like a special dividend in a special timetable. longer term it will depend on the verizon communications equity. that will determine how long it takes to get all of the money back for shareholders. >> what should they do with the rest? there's talk they'll reinvest more in cable and building out their european base. is that the right strategy? >> don't forget they've already essentially spent $10 billion of
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it. there's also other assets in the european cable and infrastructure space they could look at. there are other mobile operations they could look to buy. that's the major port of call. an element will have to be used for deleveraging it. it's closer to 1.5 times rather than its range over 2 times currently it's got more flexibility. >> guy, how likely is it that at&t step in and have a look at vodafone seriously, the rump business. >> at&t has expressed an interest. in reality, that transaction will be difficult to consider until you are a long way down the process of concluding the verizon transaction. just from a complexity perspective, also regulation perspective, you almost need vodafone to be a clean vehicle. a smaller stake in verizon
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communications for that deal to become a realistic transaction. i would describe it as being something out there but probably not imminent. >> they've already agreed to the deutsch land deal. what else is in europe that will be on the priority list for vodafone to be looking at? >> the most notable thing that's been talked about is in italy with the asset, both parties have said vodafone has expressed interest to swiss com in the past. the overall monitor ryization of verizon, part of it could be that they take 100% of vodafone italy. that makes a transaction easier to execute on mid term. that was probably one of the main things on people's lips
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mostly. >> guy, they've now lost this cash cow that was the verizon business. how do they replace it? how important is it that they stabilize their earnings and cash flow? >> well, the underlying performance of vodafone is always going to be dependent on their european operations. the key to vodafone fundamentally is it's getting its european revenue trend which is negativity, minus three, minus four to move back to zero and in a more positive environment. >> is it easier to do deals in europe at the moment with competition authorities? brussels, we've seen the kpn deal might fallaway.
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what's the climate like here? >> the climate for deals is it's a willingness for operators to push the boundaries and consider things that previously weren't possible. it seems to be evolving to recognize investment and to continually focus regulation on price is not necessarily about the health of the overall industry. we are moving but i think there are a lot of benchmark deals that might try to push the approval levels. the one down side is on there aren't that many assets left to buy. it's not like we have a glut. a lot of them have been bought. so we're not going to see a major bonanza. in our view, you might see lots of little incremental deals. a bit of asset trading. >> i see one analyst has talked about brazil, being opening to
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sell their gvt. is that something that's worth looking at? >> there are lots of things that are worth looking at. basically anything that improves market structures will always be looked at. the problem with a lot of these things, you have regulatory issues, you have funding issues. selling assets sounds easier. you do needling buyers. there's not many operators that have what i call considerable balance sheet capacity to do m and a. vodafone does have a bit of flexibility. the reason why we're talking about u.s. operators coming into europe. a lot of others no longer have that flex sheet variability. >> thank you. now president obama has
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delayed a decision on syria pending a vote in congress. find out why our next guest says a strike is still likely. haley will be back. she's looking at how investable u.k. banks are. right now, we'll leave you with a view from the street. >> people are a lot more cynical about what banks do, but we're also in a position where we need banks. we have to sort gf with it really. >> do you think there's been too much banker bashing? >> no. i probably think there's been a lot of talk about bashing the bankers but i don't think that much is really being done to address fundamental problems. >> do you think customers trust the banks. >> there are a lot of options. i think they feel they've been betrayed. >> i think there are particular sectors of banking which have certainly lost people's trust. certainly some of the high
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welcome to "worldwide exchange." here are your headlines. solid manufacturing growth in china, the u.k. and europe. factories in emerging markets show signs of struggle. president obama buys more time on syria calling for vote in congress and prompting damascus to declare an historic american retreat. secretary of state john kerry defends the decision. >> the united states is strongest when the congress speaks with the president, when the american people are invested because we've had an appropriate vetting of all of the facts.
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shares in verizon's vodafone. they will take over a $130 billion deal. it's lined up a $60 billion bridge loan. plus, the german chancellor angela merkel finds herself on the defensive in her only tv debate with peer steinbruck as he accuses her of mishandling the european debt crisis. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange" bringing you business news from around the globe. all right. if you have just woken up in the united states, why? it's a holiday. day off. the u.s. markets are closed. european equities, global equities having a good first day of september. month of august not so good. the ftse down 3%. the dow down 4.5%. the ftse currently
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