i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. our guest host this hour is dennis kartman. dennis, welcome. good to see you. we're going to get to all that, but before we do, let's set the stage for the jobs report. the economy probably added 175,000 jobs last month. the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at a four-year low of 7.4%. meantime, average hourly wages are expected to raise by .2%. we have been watching the futures ahead of this report and not major moves but you can see the dow futures are down by 25 points. s&p 500 off by a point and a half. >> we're watching the ten-year. yields topping the key 3% level yesterday. last time that happened was when becky was pregnant.

if you're wondering why the -- if you're wondering why the ten-year is important, who might be paying atense, li ining atte greenspan was on "squawk box" in december of 2010 and he had a piece of advice for cnbc viewers. >> would you kindly get a little less libor on your streamer and more ten-year note? >> yes. >> do we go heavy on libor? >> i know what libor is, because it very rarely changes. the ten-year note is what it is all about. >> as for the 30-year bond, the yield hasn't topped 4% since early august of 2011. >> i don't remember when my wife was pregnant nearly as well as she does. she remembers -- >> as the woman you tend to remember -- >> you feel it. you know it. it is a big event. >> it is. >> something that is important. it is like jiffy pop, right? remember how when you -- slowly.

but you watch it slow and there is other things happening. you're -- >> all kinds of things. it does ride heavy on your -- >> we had two in the oven. >> you did. we remember things. she remembers places, oh, yeah, i remember i was there, i felt like i was going to throw up like at a football game. >> that's completely what it is. >> as for the broader markets, men will never understand some of these things. >> i said that yesterday, wow, the ten year hasn't been that high since i was pregnant, i could immediately put it back. >> we can't associate with things like that, really. i can remember when i had a particularly bad case of roids or something. i remember i was in pain, i was there, trying to sit -- i had to stand at the football game. >> this squawkward moment has been brought to you by joe kernen. >> did you see him sit down? >> sat down tenuously. ♪ down, down, down

. >> gr growing old is not for sissies. >> no, it's not. but the alternatives aren't great. another look. the markets are at a point now where -- and dennis will talk about, you still care about supply and resistance. i thought 3% was enough for, like, the foreseeable future. now i'm thinking why would it be? what if it goes to 3.5%? what if they really decide to -- >> what was your first mortgage? >> yeah. >> mine was 9.25%. >> i was a late bloomer. i remember -- i talked to andrew about -- i argued with andrew about that late 70s period that it was -- it seemed to me to be just as bad as the great recession we just went through. certainly it was worse. >> we had two recessions that were right upon one another, the infamous double dip. rates, i can remember trading

long bond at 15%. so 3%, come on, give me a break. >> stock market was awful. trading at 800 or 700 and then the -- >> there were all -- >> strong personality. >> a big tall guy. tall man. >> but a strong personality. >> very strong. >> we have to talk about that. >> new york times out again today after yellen, they want yellen. >> saw the journal. >> the journal too. >> enemy of my enemy is my friend. i'm so behind -- i'm so behind -- she went from an academic to -- but she's really got no -- did you see how far her glass stegele thing -- she's not really doing anything. she has no laws -- >> the banking committee. >> already opposed. >> elizabeth warren is -- no

word for how far left she is. >> she's against -- >> then i'm for. >> you'll get the vote. >> i don't know how this guy got elected in ohio, must be cleveland. >> be nice. >> what? >> that's my stomping grounds. be nice. they carry the county all the time. >> a simple way to think about this. if elizabeth warren is against it and is that left, then he can't be that left, therefore republicans have to like him. >> they do like him and then you're done. i was very early. i said it that day, but didn't say loudly, because i don't want people to know i'm backing him because i could hurt his chances. we looked at -- what do we look at? let's look at oil. this is something that our guests talked about a lot. 108. someone yesterday, i heard people say there is no reason it should be above 100 and i heard people never going below 100 again based on the globe coming back in terms of growth.

then gold which people are long on gold or short of gold and dennis was long of gold, did you ever cover? still long on gold? >> i'm still long on gold but don't own it in dollar terms, yen terms, it is actually okay. it is fine. if you own it in dollar terms, you have a real problem. >> even recently it has -- it ran back up and coming down. >> almost near the highs in yen terms. completely different looking chart. >> investors pulled out $5.1 billion of u.s.-based stock funds in the latest week. those numbers from lipper show that it was a third straight week of net withdrawals. even as u.s. stock prices broadly rose on positive economic data, nowhere near -- still 5% off the highs or 6% off the highs, i think. >> our guest host this hour is dennis gartman, the founder, editor and publisher of the gartman letter. you're not a huge fan of jobs numbers. >> i'm not a huge fan. >> this time it really is pretty important when you're looking at what the fed is considering. >> yeah, sitting down looking at

one, where we have a new fed chairman, two, we're at the september, where we're going to have a two-day conference, have a press conference afterwards. obl the fed is going to reduce the amount of accommodation. the question is will it be september? i doubt it. i really don't think they'll do it this time. >> that ism manufacturing number -- >> good number. and the jobs number that the claims numbers, very good numbers. there are enough numbers if you're a voter to make yourself -- to say i could think about it. i think they're better of waiting for another month or two to see. >> let's say the number comes in today, 180 to 200,000, just above the expectations. >> i think they'll sigh and say isn't that interesting, we'll wait. if it is 200 or above, whole other story. i think as long as it is under 200,000 -- >> a lot riding on this then. >> not a question. >> how does syria factor in all of this? >> how does what? >> syria factor in all of this to you? >> supposedly if you're a federal reserve official, if

you're a governor, you are to take only into consideration the circumstances for bailing in the united states. that's supposedly what you're supposed to do. i don't think they do that at all. i think a syria is a reason for them not to take action in september, not to do anything to simply sit and wait for more data. if there is a reason to -- if there is something syria has an implication of, it is to be slower and do nothing. >> does the market rally on no taper. >> which market, the bond market, the dollar market -- >> as long as there is no tapering, no reduction in accommodation i suspect the stock market will go higher on that. if there is concern that we -- that the -- that accommodation will be reduced, then stocks might get a little less interesting. i'm bullish with stocks. >> that's an argument that if we get a strong jobs number today,

might sell off a little bit. >> good news is bad news bad news good news is bad news. i'm like everybody else. >> i'm not sure which -- >> i want it to be. i made the switch where -- >> i want to get out. i want the fed out. want it to get better. all i know is ever since we started talking about tapering, the market is below 15,000. the economic numbers have gotten better. >> not a question. >> markets should be -- if it was going to trade up on good news, should be above where it is and it isn't. >> syria has been a big role in pushing -- >> if you -- where i riff live southern virginia, the discussion is always about syria. not are automobile sales up, because they are, not are housing sales are, because they are. it is of syria and obama care and that causes everyone to sit down an say, you know what, i think i'll just wait. >> it is not good when we intercept mess annuages from ir.

>> it gets ugly. >> israel is showing support because they're worried if we don't stand up to this red line, what does that mean to iran? >> they know in the middle east -- >> they live in the neighborhood. >> the only thing people understand over there is power. and if you don't think you're going to -- someone is going to act on had they do -- >> it is so bad over there. it is ridiculous. >> much more from dennis throughout the show. world leaders meeting at the g-20 in russia and president obama talking about the potential strikes against syria. steve sedgwick joins us from the meeting this morning. good morning, steve. >> yeah, very good day to you. let me give the viewers insight. this is an economic meeting, supposed to be about global politics, not growth in jobs and

how to create the right impetus for business and countries to grow. we got that. it has been overwhelmed by syria which we have been talking about there. discussions are being made on a market basis, economic basis, because of concerns about syria. so what the president did last night, this is president putin, not obama, he had this working meal, this dinner, supposed to be a couple of hours, lasted until 1:00 a.m. local time. he stepped up at the start of it and said you got ten minutes. every single leader around this room has ten minutes to state his case, including mr. obama, the chinese, including everybody. everyone got ten minutes to come up with this point. for all the copy i'm seeing written talking about president obama being isolated, he has his critics. what is interesting is the canadians, the turkish, the british, the french and australians, all stood up and said we believe some form of military action or some form of support for the american stance

is correct. i've spoken to the foreign minister of australia, who is basically the senior delegate here, because the australian prime minister is trying to find election, which looks like he may well be losing. this is bob carr, the foreign minister of australia, he said to me, the u.s. are right to have some form of limited military action against the al assad regime. when i see this copy saying obama is isolated here at the g-20, that is not the case. in fact, very interesting, you may be interested to know the european europeans -- it is nice to see the eu speaking with one voice, not as the case may be. i've been speaking to a lot of key people including the president of the world bank as well among others who said, yes, it is clear that chemical weapons have been used but how we go forward from here remains to be seen. >> the other big dispute that seems to have risen from the press ranks is this developed world versus emerging world. the problems that quantitative

easing cause and the problems that tapering is causing as well. i had a lot of people who said to me, the emerging world needs to look in the mirror at their own domestic issues and stop blaming tapering and the fear of tapering, which, of course, we may get as soon as the september 17th, 18th meeting. stop blaming them for this capital flight, for this emer emerging market. people have been turning around and saying they need to conduct their own reforms internally. reforms in the way they do business, in the way they run their deficits and then perhaps we can actually move forward on this world. the point being here, yes there is serious divides but there is other business being done, including the russian finance minister who i spoke to through an interpreter, there is a whole bunch of other issues going on. this they're more liable for taxes locally, that could be interesting for a lot of companies that our viewers invest in as well.

that insight about dinner last night. it seeps owe ba s that insight about dinner last night. it seeps owe baeems obama was n completely isolated. back to you. >> steve sedgwick, thank you. >> in the corporate target of the morning, the ford ceo playing down reports that he could, get this, leave ford earlier than expected. a lot of people aren't sure he'll be there forever. but was speaking on cnbc earlier this morning. >> clearly focused on ford and we have a great partnership with microsoft as you pointed out. they helped us and partnered with us and developed the original sync system. we look forward to continuing that relationship but i absolutely love serving our ford. >> reuters reported that the ford board of directors is open to letting him step down earlier than expect as he explores other roles. >> to quote. >> the ford boss has been mentioned as a possible candidate for the microsoft ceo

position. >> that's the first i've heard that. that's interesting. >> it came up he might be -- well, andrew is the first to float it in his -- but it was -- he has a house in seattle. >> he does. >> he's been doing the commute. >> close to bill gates. and microsoft has a lost their technology in ford vebs. >> sync and everything. and lebeau writes, very few people expected him to go to the very end of his contract. i think the end of next year. a lot of people think he has another act left in him. he's a very young -- he's a young 66 or 67. i can tell you, that's ten years older than i am and i'm like 37. i have the mind and body of at most a 37 -- and the drive, you know what i'm talking about, of a 37 -- of a 37-year-old. ♪ 67 is not too old. really not.

>> i even thought, him stepping down at that age would be -- way too much energy. >> we were batting this around. he is a great manager. went from boeing to ford. but does microsoft need a great manager or do they need a visionary? do they need an elan musk type steve jobs person? >> a person that can write the code of the next -- >> ibm and turn things around there. >> the one thing you missed, 57, 37, so what is the new 37, like you're 17. that's why i have so much -- i'm constantly trying to, you know -- trying to beat -- >> father son situation. >> it is. it is. >> you're willing to go along with that. >> father/son thing.

>> mulally is a much more interesting idea than elop. >> i don't understand the elop situation. from everyone i spoke to, he's more of a manager too than a visionary. so it depends what they want and i think we'll talk about the board of microsoft, the true arbiter, one man, bill gates. >> i heard he had something to do with that company. >> a little bit. >> all right. when we return, we'll talk more about apple. it is expected to unveil new iphone models next week. a leak of a possible new feature and a cool one. we'll talk that after this. on squawk sports news, the start to the nfl season last night, peyton manning became the first quarterback in 44 years to throw seven touchdown passes as the denver broncos routed the super bowl champion baltimore ravens, 49-27. that game had a half hour delay because of lightning too. right now, let's check on the weekend forecast with the

weather channel's julie martin. >> thanks, becky. very hot temperatures there in denver for that game. they tied a record 97 degrees. in addition to all that, we're seeing a return of summer in the midwest. we're going it see those 90s persisting. very cool in the east. a big difference, fall-like temperatures, even frost and freeze warnings in interior new england. and in the west, storminess rolling into the pacific northwest, seattle, portland, traveling in that area, going to want to watch out for the delays. here say look the at the weekend then, very beautiful still in the northeast. we're going to see the low 70s, very low humidity, very pleasant conditions. some scattered storms will be firing up here in the south and staying hot here in the central u.s. with those scattered storm and possibly even some severe weather in the northern tier to cap off the weekend. now, in terms of travel today, looking pretty good, orlando going to see a few scattered showers and storms, delays there. new york, clear of jfk, new york, laguardia and seattle

expect delays as well due to weather. > making his way through streets of our nation's capital, he's getting ready for the monthly employment report. cnbc's labor department insider hampton pearson coming up with the numbers 8:30 a.m. eastern time. thank you orville and wilbur... ...amelia... neil and buzz: for teaching us that you can't create the future... by clinging to the past. and with that: you're history. instead of looking behind... delta is looking beyond. 80 thousand of us investing billions... in everything from the best experiences below... to the finest comforts above. we're not simply saluting history... we're making it.

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time now for the executive edge, a daily segment focused on giving business leaders a leg up. apple is holding a big media event next tuesday where it is expected to unveil at least one new iphone model. the tech giant is known for its product secrecy, but an australian teenager has once again leaked pictures. he's built an online following by doing things like this. his latest release shows off the purported fingerprint scanner of the latest iphone. reports suggested that apple is likely to launch two new iphones this year, one with new fingerprint technology and the cheaper version in a plastic casing. fingerprint technology, two stories, the fingerprint technology, the new thing and the kid. >> the fingerprint technology which worries me because we'll talk about nsa and encryption, but once you have to put in your biometric information into a computer, doesn't that -- never going to be secure. >> i don't like it because i

share ipads at home. >> maybe it means everyone just puts their thumb on the thing. >> if everybody -- here is the -- that's not a bad idea. >> what about the kid? >> the kid, this is a fascinating story. he's not doing this to tick off iphone or tick off the apple people. if they asked him to stop, he would. but he's making money off it. some suggest it is illegal. if a journalist was doing this, we would say great investigative journalistic reporting. >> remember when gizmodo found a copy of the iphone in the bar and they called nick denton from gawker to try to get this. they got the phone back. i wonder what the legality is of showing -- >> if you talk to suppliers, who send you pictures of these things, and then you post it online, if you're a reporter, i would think that would be a good thing. he make money on ts money on th.

they say that changes the structure. >> i don't know what the rules are. >> you missed the watch yesterday. >> i did miss the watch yesterday. i heard about the watch yesterday. >> i do not want one. >> you do in. >> i do not. >> it is big and clunky. >> it is a high price point. you think about what people spend on watches and it is, like, it is not something you wear because -- people spend 10, 15, $20,000 on watches, and then that would totally take away -- other watchmakers would be like if people start wearing these devices on their wrists instead of watches, this thing, i don't know. it is so small and -- >> no, what i do want is -- they're talking about a new six-inch screen on an iphone, potentially, a story in the journal about that. that excites me. >> six inches or what he calls

six inches which is like four inches or three and a half. >> wow. >> the nsa secretly cracked most online encryption. >> they called that first one an squawkward moment about roids and roids are not awkward. >> they're not comfortable. >> no, but i did my first number thing, life after 50, i did that. it is not awkward. it is just -- >> it is not comfortable. >> it is just one of those things, you know? >> let's talk about the nsa. the government has reportedly invested billions of dollars since 2000 to try to make nearly everyone's secrets available for government consumption. revelations stem from documents that were leaked by edward snowden. and -- >> all encryption they know how to get around. >> they went to companies like microsoft and got them to build in back doors into the services so outlook, everything we use. that's crazy. >> seems like a total -- >> it makes me want to go long,

makes me very excited. >> long what stock? >> the economy. you got obama. nsa, big time, done all that. drones, dropping bomb on people left and right. wants to go into a middle eastern country because they have wmds and making sure we do it. the next thing, he's going to have to eventually say i like the private sector. he's done everything else republicans do. there is one thing left for him to do to become a republican and that's to care about the economy. and corporations and the private sector. that's next. all the patriot act stuff, guantanamo still up, he's done everything else. we want -- he's trying to get congressional approval to attack a country on -- >> as long as you know where she is, you can set the bar. >> you can. see what i mean? it is a bullish thing.

maybe the private sector can help the economy. maybe it is not all government. >> two and a half more years. >> two and a half. could be a little late. >> late bloomer, you're suggesting. >> bill clinton did it at the beginning of the second term. he's a slow learner. >> when we come back, a preview of today's job report and what it may mean for the next fed decision. right after this. vo: two years of grad school.

20 years with the company. thousands of presentations. and one hard earned partnership. it took a lot of work to get this far. so now i'm supposed to take a back seat when it comes to my investments? there's zero chance of that happening. avo: when you work with a schwab financial consultant, you'll get the guidance you need with the control you want. talk to us today.

we're about two hours away from the august jobs report. joining us to talk about it, beth ann bovena and anthony chan. let's go through your

predictions, if you will, before we get to what they all mean. where do you want to go, anthony? >> i'm looking for 190. a lot of things suggest a strong number. >> where are you? >> i think jobs are coming in. i'm not as -- i don't expect it to happen so soon. i'm looking for 165. >> and where are you? >> i can be plus 200 without too much difficulty to be quite honest. when i travel around, i see a lot of help wanted signs. haven't seem them in a long, long time. >> better or worse? >> i think on a part time situation, it is going to get better which may push the u-6 unemployment rate lower than last month. >> are you the same place. >> part time situation, a continued issue. i think we still have a weak job market and what schaaping is people are getting part time job because they can't get a full-time job. >> cliche question of the day or the week or the month, actually, keep talking about tapering and what happens here. is good news going to be good

news or bad news going to be bad news today? >> good news is always good news. the question is how much of an impact it has on fed tapering. if we get the good news and tapering because of that, it is not bad. >> the expectation is we get tapering in september? >> i think in september they make the announcement and will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 to $15 billion. >> how lousy would the number have to be today if we were to not taper? >> i think you need a number below 100,000, something i don't expect. >> do you think syria plays any role in all of this? >> i think certainly syria plays a role in all of this, so does continuing resolution, and so does the treasury -- the treasury issue of hitting the debt ceiling. those will all play a role. i think the fed according to the minutes were concerned about basically jobs -- part time, also concerned that the labor participation rate was so low. those are things that will play on their mind. >> like the 200 idea. go higher? >> who knows. first of all, you have to understand, anything within 50,000 of the number according

to the bureau of labor statistics is a bull's eye. you can have it between 150 and 250 and not be anything more than random noise. it is a silly number to begin with, but can we get above 200? we can. >> can we? it is always a possibility. the reason that could happen is because when you look at the nonmanufacturing ism survey, that's one of the strongest numbers since february. believe it or not, we in february we had a nonfarm payroll number of 332,000. we're not forecasting that. that shows you how much positive momentum is behind this. remember that over the last 12 months close to 97% of the jobs are in the service producing sector and the ism survey is forecasting it and measuring the service -- >> relative to this gentlemen to your left -- >> i see his point. a good number. you think about it, first of all, you see higher interest rates, also rising oil prices. those are going to weigh on spending and also going to weigh on housing. i also see that while, yes, we have seen about a little less than 200,000 per month for the

last year, all good news, but we didn't see the growth, growth has been around about -- under 2% on average, pretty much for the last four quarters. >> another thing exiting is that productivity is starting to come up. we saw an upward revision. >> that number yesterday, that astounding number. >> quite impressive. >> we'll leave it on a more positive number. want to see how it turns out. thank you, beth ann and anthony. and you're sticking around. >> from what i understand. a new must have app, yep, and the latest trends in private air travel. as we head to break, check out the yield on the ten-year treasury. [ male announcer ] this store knows how to handle a saturday crowd.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we're talking about road warriors and private planes this morning. by the way, pull out your iphone, open an app and book yourself a private jet. what a family office in saudi arabia did to book a multileg business trip. the price tag, just half a million bucks. the most expensive app sale for the company, called private fly. first to launch a private jet booking app. customers are using twitter to get a plane. recent bookings stemming from a tweet, price tag of nearly $600,000. ceo adam windle told us that 6% of bookings are through their aa app, which has over 100,000 downloads. for more on business travel, go to road warrior.cnbc.com.

>> private jet aviation company wheels up, you heard about it, partnering this morning -- >> one month. >> partnering this morning with vista jet and jet aviation. vista jet agreed to the partnership which will bring vista jet experience under the u.s. for the first time. the founder and ceo of wheels up and thomas floor. >> chairman. >> founder and chairman. kenny, you showed us these turboprop beechcraft to get down to the low end for marquis jet, which you founded, part of net jet. this is an add on. this takes you to the high end for jets. >> we dropped the order for $1.4 billion on 105 king air 350 is, which will redefine the entry

level. >> for people that want to fly private. >> vista is an unbelievable company. >> like the net jets of europe but what is it? >> vista jet offers a solution, very different than net jet. we don't feel like we're in competition. we feel like we're innovating. don't take asset risk, have access to the plane, when net jet fractional requires you to downstroke and have residual. >> which plane is this? >> global 6,000. >> global express. >> global 6,000. they changed their branding. 5, 6, 7 and 8. will go 13 hours, taking you to moscow and back in no time. >> that would seat 15 people. >> is it the same size -- what is the big gulf stream now, the g-5 50. >> seats 13, 14, depending. >> trying to put 50 in there. >> we're really excited. i couldn't be more excited to

bring thomas over. jet aviation, a general dynamics company, will be our operator. you need a u.s. operator to have registered planes here. >> jet aviation, like the fbo. >> jet aviation is an operator with an aoc and if you're an -- >> what is an aoc. >> what is an fbo? >> fbo is when you go to the private airport, you go to the place where -- >> a fixed space operation. >> i like the way you're asking like you've never -- like -- i'm with you on that. i don't know either. i was studying up. >> i want tom to explain the program. he has a great innovation here. >> it works very simple. it is a very simple contract. three-page contract, no asset risk. we have the airplane on our balance sheet. and it is a simple hourly charge and very transparent. >> what is it going to set me back for an hour? >> $15,950 per hour, really, really competitive. >> everyone else is $14,000.

>> per occupied hour. wheels up, wheels down. if you spend the week somewhere -- >> 16 grand an hour. >> rough. >> net jets were buying -- >> that was a bombardier 2. >> in november last year, we placed an order for 122 global expression, the largest order. >> that is a firm order? >> there is unprecedented demand from global companies to compete globally and what they need is they need point to point connection, whether going from somewhere deep in siberia to deep in africa, africa to the united states and back and forth. we have great demand from u.s. corporations internationally. that really triggered -- >> bigger than the net jet order? >> yes. >> even for not just options, but for the actual orders. >> the actual order was bigger and with the options. >> what happens when someone

flies your airplane from siberia and spends the week there. where does the plane go? >> the plane goes to the next client. we drop that line and application, all aircraft are identical. that probably -- that plane would fly to the capital of kazakhstan, maybe to china and from china back to somewhere in the middle east and then when that client who we dropped in siberia needs to be picked up, we'll pick him up within less than 24 hours, identical airplane, identical experience. >> have haven't you come to the us breus? is it difficult to get started up in the u.s. and what is the partnership? >> partnership is simple. we want to bring the vista experience to the united states. the only way to do that is to have a u.s. operator and jet aviation, number one in the space, gold standard. >> is it difficult to get into the united states market? >> i think thomas and he can talk about wheels up and what

we're doing as a total aviation solution. i think it was perfect timing. >> we were focused on expanding in russia and in africa and the middle east and any one of those markets. in about 2011, 2012, more and more demand from u.s. corporations to fly them internationally between asia and africa. and they said, well, you know, why don't you offer this truly on a global basis. i give you one figure, like last year, we flew more than 10,000 international flights. so there is this very strong demand for this product, you know, basically connecting the globe from point to point. and anywhere in the world. >> we're lucky enough, you know, bob daremore, the president of ejm and ron silverman, chief commercial officer, are two guys that left and are over really running this venture day to day for us. so we have real talent. >> is this -- is this deal, you were opening up the market with the last deal, you were opening

the market, different market, new market, right? is this deal about stealing clients from other companies? >> absolutely not. >> this is about broadening the marketplace. net jet will be successful for a long time. we have our place. we're going to -- i look at blackberry, good business, i actually still hold on to one, and a company out of cupertino, apple -- >> blackberry is like $9. someone buy us! is that -- that was just very telling, your comparison of net jet to blackberry. net jet will be the blackberry of the aviation industry? warren is, like, thanks, kenny. >> i'll give you another one, rangold beer. >> geez. >> a freudian slip if i ever saw one. good luck. appreciate it. >> nice to meet you.

>> we always have to thank richard happenedler. in august we all came togeth together -- >> thank you, guys. appreciate it. when we come back, what will a million dollars buy you in various housing markets across the country. we'll find out with help from the real estate agent to the star. "squawk box" will be right back. thank you orville and wilbur... ...amelia... neil and buzz: for teaching us that you can't create the future... by clinging to the past. and with that: you're history. instead of looking behind... delta is looking beyond. 80 thousand of us investing billions... in everything from the best experiences below... to the finest comforts above. we're not simply saluting history... we're making it.

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all day to day we're showing what you a million dollars with buy. we sent eight cnbc report erdz to eight different real estate markets. now it's fim for round one. two $1 million home go head-to-head. only one will move forward to round two. to make it even more interesting, we asked the reporters not to reveal where the home is located. listen in. this historic home sits on a half acre of waterfront property built in the 1750s for one of the area's founding families. its interior maintains the colonial clarm. the sprawling lawn and patio provide great opportunities for outdoor entertaining. >> this house sits on two-thirds

of an acre within walking distance of the nearby university and bustling town. built in 1906, it's been completely renovated and true craft's man style. this 263-year-old home boasts 2700 square feet of updated living space. it includes four fireplaces plus this spasht chef's kitchen which boasts two sinks, a wine cooler, and cherry cabinets. this house boasts 2600 square feet of living space including a three season sun room. for the kitchen counter, this maple, especially selected from a local mill. the house has three bedrooms, three full baths and a down stairs study that can be turned into a fourth bedroom. the master suite includes a walk in closet, a changing area and a balcony with views of the sprawling lawn and the riverfront. this house has four bedrooms and four bathrooms including handcrafted detail like custom doors, windows, and cabinetry. floor to sealing book shells throughout make this the perfect retreat for academics and

bookworms alike. the 125 private dock takes you to the water's edge where can you enjoy kayaking. there is a bike path and yacht club. the asking price, $995,000. >> ample windows throughout the house show off the unique location atop a waterfall. the largeter as yard, the perfect place to enjoy the falls below. the asking price, $995,000. >> so there you have it, the river retreat and the waterfall wonder, very different homes. guys, it's our turn to find out which one is where. i was going to take a guess maybe that the waterfall one is in dartmouth in hanover. maybe? >> why? >> because each of them is based in an ivy league school. >> oh, okay. >> river retreat. i think that may be new haven, connecticut. i'm guessing. >> those are good guesses. >> i think that's a very good guess. i was thinking maybe -- it

didn't look like ithica. >> i was waiting to hear that. >> i was thinking maybe. >> you didn't seem like you were really paying attention to jumping in and saying i know where that is. no, you were paying attention but saying i know where that is. >> the seven sisters don't count that? >> no. >> i don't think there is a river up there. >> i was actually -- >> i don't really -- i didn't have a real -- i know there are rivers but i don't know if it's like that. i don't know. >> joining us to reveal the locations and the winner is super broker dolly lennon. tell us where they're located and second of all which one is the better deal. >> the river retreat is in providence, rhode island. >> very smart. >> brown. >> and the waterfall wonder is ithica. >> it is? >> yeah, cornell. >> really? >> that is a beautiful waterfall. >> i'm trying to figure out where that house is. >> which is the better deal? >> you know, the houses are very

comparable size. they're older homes. they're both beautiful in their own way. at the end of the day, it boils down to what are unplament rates in the area? which one is in better condition. all things like that when the houses are so similar. so if we look at brown, there is a 9.1% unemployment rate in that area. so that's well above the national average. and probably for that reason there are ten homes comparablebly on the market to this home. that's a lot of homes. and the cornell location, the unemployment rate is 5.6%. >> ithica is very low. >> that's right. there are a lot of employers there. it's great to live there for that reason and the location, it's walking distance to school. so if you are going to rent this out, there is always a renter for that. there is always someone going to cornell whose parents are buying them a house. >> for $1 million? >> yeah. >> i want to look at this one. i will, i'll send you the link. it's a great house.

>> there are only four houses comparably on the market against it. >> you still have the house your parents bought new cornell when you went to school there. did you ever sell that? >> i go there on the weekends. >> see. exactly. >> so not true. so not true. >> a lot of chinese parents do buy their children homes so they can go to school properly. >> and ivy league -- >> yes, exactly. big draw. big draw. >> very expensive schools. i'll always remember dorms -- not dorms, apartments. you would have to rent out for, i don't know, back then, a lot of money. >> cornell is the worst but the best, right? >> they say it's the easiest to get into, the hardest to graduate from. >> exactly. it has everything. so given all these things -- >> good segue there. >> yeah. >> location, location, low unemployment, given all these things, cornell is our winner and goes on to the next round. >> makes perfect sense. particularly looking at unemployment in the area.

>> go big red. >> we're going to do this again? >> yeah, this is just round one. so waterfall wonder -- >> she's doing this throughout the day. >> all throughout the day. waterfall wonder is the winner of round one. >> i want that house. >> it's going up against another million dollar home in a mystery location in the next hour of "squawk box" and later she will crown the top house during "closing bells." >> i can't believe you're dabbling in million dollar houses. >> okay. coming up, the final countdown to the august jobs report. we're going to talk to expectations next as part of our countdown. we're providing unless on what to expect and what it means for your investment. check out our live blog on squawkcnbc.com. check out the ten-year note. yields hovering at levels we haven't seen in years. we're back in just a moment. ♪

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the futures this morning had been indicated slightly lower, at least for the dow and s&p 500 futures. right now the dow futures are down 15 points. s&p 500 barely below the flat line. nasdaq up three points. of course, everyone is waiting for that number we get today at 8:30. we're also watching the ten-year note this morning. yields topping the 3% level.

the last time that happened is july 2011. you can see it is at 2.972 #%. if you look back to the historic high for the ten-year note, 15.8%. and that was hit back in september of 1981. it is jobs friday. forecasters say that they expect the economy added about 175,000 jobs last month. the unemployment rate is holding steady at 7.4%. meantime, average hourly wages are expected to rise by .2%. we'll bring ut numbers and the market reaction at 8:30 eastern time. president obama facing growing pressure from rush why's putin and other world leaders to not launch military strikes in syria. many of them fear would hurt the global economy and push up oil prices. our steve sedgwick is in st. petersburg covering the summit. >> we're going to talk about jobs and because we talk about jobs, we also talk about the economy and also the ten-year topping 3% for the first time

since 2011. beck ji pregnant. >> thank you. >> the whole country is going to remember, when becky was pregnant. >> morgan stanley's chief u.s. economist and president of fixed income markets at raymond jams. just to tell you how pathetic and nerdy we are, off camera we weren't talking about seven touchdowns, i was talking about the ten year with you. i'm going to start with you. liesman always talks about it, that is the way that markets move to the terminal point when you don't do anything and they move there. i thought three was the terminal point. i thought it was high enough for where this economy is and where inflation is. i thought it moved so quickly so fast, i thought three was enough. >> that's our forecast.

>> liftoff from growth channel centered to something closer to 2.75%. that is associated with market gains. the federal reserve can just let that happen. >> part of it, they say it is a more appropriate attitude. >> the numbers that have come out, kevin, have given them cover for september. i also think that when does he leave? january, it's over. right? does he leave in january? >> february. >> so if there is a new -- he has to confirm.

i hate to think it is about ben bernanke, but it is. >> he started the process of something hard and therefore, the first few things, the next fair person is going to be doing is a continuation of policy. >> i call you j.j. because of china town. and yesterday, did you see? there is word that jack is retiring. >> i did see. >> now he says he's not retiring. >> he said he is retired because he couldn't remember the lines. >> when your my age, it looks like a hearing aid, right? i degres. >> right. and he had that fame dwrus line,

you're dumber than you think. >> no, i'm a little bit of a different take on it. it is a much shorter time frame. you know, i don't know. what is it worth? 20, 30, 40 basis points in the ten year? how much is the taper going to be? i'm just saying how we got to where we are today. why we press 3%. and i think the bond market started to get it right towards the end of yesterday as we go into the number. this is a huge number in the sense that it will confirm things or brings more questions into the marketplace. if you get 120 or 130 number, does that mean taper is still cooked in for september? maybe. and if so, how much. what is that going to mean to the ten year? i'm not sure it's worth as much as the market is giving it. i thought we saw that yesterday. anything north of 200, sure, put it in.

maybe make it 25 billion. >> really? >> i'm just not sure that the economy is so strong at this point. we have a long way to go to think about what the fed may do beyond providing stimulus. i think the ten year is about where it is. it is going to take a super number to push it well over 3%. we're going to be in the range. will they do anything a couple weeks or not? >> we were okay. but it's not like you can just put it in the books that we're both going to do a gdp of 3% next year. then you have the budget stuff and syria and you have obama care and all these other things. even without the headwinds, you wonder if we're above stall ski right now, don't you? >> two of the main drags on growth, financial crisis and fiscal consolidation are mostly

behind us. big level effect. the thing about a level infect is once you make the adjustments, there is no longer growth. the key issue is will pharmacy sales and sales expectations begin to pick up their capital spending? capital spending is what gets us out of the growth channel of 2% to 2.75%. all the questions you care about, no. can the fed get equities fairly values? they have one answer of growth is 2.75% in the fourth period and another is a much more difficult one. >> the front page of "the wall street journal" points out that debt has made a huge impact. corporations are taking on more and more debt. isn't that indicative of them getting ready to gear up to spend more? >> there is a lot of cash on the balance sheet. the problem is if you talk to ceos they say cash is most likely to be used for dividends. number two, mergers and

acquisitions, number three on the list, capital spending. you have to look around for a need for capacity and then it doesn't happen. >> as long as we wait for some of the other things where the insurance -- you're waiting for the bond market to turn around. >> corporations, same thing. we're waiting so long, we don't they they ever will. is it demand that they eventually do it? what is the problem? >> it's demand. you are always misled to listen to the ceo. >> i thought you were going to say cnbc. you said ceos. >> most ceos. >> just to clarify. that is really what drives investments and sales. we get this associated with all the wealth creation and the

drags and the sales expectations. they're going to start spending. they have a cash on the balance sheet funded. it really is the natural -- once the ceo worries that their competitor is going to be moving, they move. that's how you break it. >> can we take a point and sequester every year? can we say three is actually four? do you think they'll fix that? because people love it now. it's like it's baked into everyone's deficits now. it's come down to this because of the sequester. >> and tax increases. the fact is, over the last year we made significant progress. >> will it change next year? >> yes, we will. however, ten-year forecast, 20-year forecast, somewhere between then and now we have to do some serious work. >> people are comfortable with the sequestration. what you think -- from where you sit --

>> no, i'm not wanting to take the other side. there are lots of people that still talk about we have to do something in this next budget deal. >> can i ask you my favorite question? >> yeah. >> did you see this -- "the new york times" says mr. summers' reputation is replete with evidence of a temperament unsuited to lead the fed. does that make sense to you? a, is that a misnomer? is it true? and by the way, people think that ben bernanke is a meek person. not realliment think about what he's done in the last five years. unbelievable. >> so when larry summers was secretary of the treasury, the world didn't end. he said the right things, sometimes he said a strong dollar is in the national interest. that was his job. when he is leading an institution, he can speak for the institutionment he gets in trouble when he speaks for himself sometimes. but if you're the secretary of

the treasury, you never speak for yourself. tend of the day, my political calculus is if you see somebody who has an easy choice and delays doing it, they don't really want to do it. and for the last three months, the easy choice for president obama has been -- now the question is, did he convince himself that it should be larry summers because he's the better candidate or it should be someone else than him? that's important. >> he's comfortable with him. >> you should be happy. we're really splitting hairs here. it's who's more -- >> people think that yellen is the safe choice. >> larry would normally be a nightmare for supply siders. so i think it's the best of both worlds for liberals. they should be happy. and republicans, actually, should be a little bit worried about either one. >> if he liz wedge belizabeth w

like them. >> then that means nothing. >> is castro still coherent or does he have to be? i don't know. but both are big on -- larry wanted to rebuild the whole country with -- >> and he cares about unemployment and all those issues. i'm not so clear. >> it's not like you're choosing between him and, you know -- >> the white house is not going to pick someone unqualified. the white house is not going to pick someone had a is against their goals. the one thing that can absolutely be sure, the next chairperson is not going to be as self effacing as the current one. >> a lot of people talk about yellen in the media. >> oh, no, i think they did that. >> she is sitting here quietly. >> and she's also a good choice. coming up next. >> let's thank both of these gentlemen. thank you. and now coming up next --

>> coming up next, apple getting ready to make a run at pandora and spodify. it is going to be i radio. it will have a new operating system on tuesdayment we'll preview apple's big event next. take a look at how futures are shaping up ahead of the jobs number. we do have a red arrow there on the dow looking off 12 points. that could change as we get the big jobs number at 8:30. back in a moment.

apple's big event is about the now operating system and will feature itunes radio. we will shou he what to expect. >> one of the key things about the radio is with an apple is making a bold move into advertising. tackling the $15 billion radio ad market and rivals like pandora. the expected update on tuesday and will service the launch a week later. while apple's business is built on selling gadgets and contents, itunes radio is ad supported. subscribers to the match service will get access to music through the cloud and will get itunes radio ad free. despite the poor track record with ads, sources tell me it signed a big name ad deal

including pepzy, mcdonald's and others pursuing a market which they say could be worth up to $25 billion. but apple's biggest play here isn't ads or getting more people to join match but while they're selling music. there will be a buy button next to every free streaming song. we're watching how apple will differentiate itself from internet radio market leader with $70 million users, pandora. >> the question is does apple have something new to the offering other than its very strong brand? is there a revolutionary feature to apple's streaming music service? is it going to cause people what is currently the one 800 pound gorilla in the field. >> initially itunes radio will be limited to 40% of pandora's users. but if apple announces that the service will be available on android or windows phones on tuesday, that would be another

negative for pandora. andrew? >> julia, thank you for that report. joining us to talk all about this, jonathan geller, one of our favorites, and a real favorite. he is a favorite. i knew the second i said that you'd give me a hard time. >> that is disingenuous. >> one guys that never been on before and he's one of our favorites. >> when you use it like that, it cheapens the term. >> i introduced one person who said he was a favorite. and then i get the next person who wasn't necessarily a favorite and i felt bad. >> i understand. >> he doesn't even know this guy. >> last time he was on he never heard of -- you never heard any of the i have yoe gamesvideo gm and you're supposedly genius. >> i don't play video games. >> this is already built into the system and i'm paying $9.99

on spodify and sounds like i can pay a low price and get this all year. >> this is not something that is going to drive revenue for apple. this is a great feature for existing users and new users to listen to awesome music free or paid and for you to be able to buy more songs from itunes. this is not going to make apple a bunch of money. this is a nice new feature, a new lock in type of thing. >> all right. i have to throw two more rumors at you. there is a report that they're looking at much bigger screens. are we going to see anything like that next week? >> absolutely not. >> zero. >> i think apple, you know, tests a lot of different things, sizes, prototypes. we're at a four inch screen. we're finally getting all the devices on four inches. we're going to see two four inch devices. >> yesterday we had on the show the samsung watch. is there any chance we can -- i thought if samsung was doing that, we would hear a hint they

were trying to front run this because they knew that they had watches. >> i think there are twoing t s interesting things, we're not going to hear about a watch. samsung's watch is really great because it hasn't had anything to copy. and that's why it's really not that good but if you look at it, it has bad responsiveness. it's big. it's bulky. it doesn't do much. so you're seeing a fresh vision from samsung without anything to compare it to. so this is actually really cool. when apple does do something or someone else does something, it will be completely different. that's why to me it was really interesting. >> always very honest. in the 6:00 hour we talked about a kid in australia who posted, maybe you posted it as well, i know you post a lot of this stuff, a new fingerprint or some kind of biomet rick scan on the iphone. this is apparently what the looks like for the tech crowd wlachlt is this thing? >> it is great. it is going to enable us to not

remember our pass words. whenever you need to go to a website to enter a pass word or unlock the phone, put your finger on and you're good to go. it syncs across all your apple devices. you don't have to enter pass words. it's not a fingerprint scanter like the old ones. you slide your finger and they don't work. there is completely different. you touch it and off you go. this could be really big for apple going forward with payments. >> is it really going to work? you know the gym i belong to, when you walk in you have to put your thumb on the thing. i always have to wait there for three minutes for it to work. this thing will work. >> if it takes three minutes, then it failed. it should be instant and work really well and be quick. >> do you have to worry about somebody chopping off your finger tips? >> as you get older, you start to lose the fingerprint on your fingers which is why for older people, it is more difficult to use fingerprint scanners. people work outside with their hands a lot, you start to wear

off. >> so different security issue. we talked about this report of the nsa and the fact that government can read everything it seems. yet everybody is putting their thumb into this machine, it sounds to me that the nsa and potentially others will have all of our biomet rick information by the time this is finished. >> entirely possible. you can say that about everything they have. >> is any of this stuff -- >> no. >> you always expected it? >> anything to do online -- >> even incrypted? >> even incrypted. >> the boy genius and he really is one of our favorite. thank you. >> whether we come back, a great night for peyton manning. and then the september jobs data can tell us a lot about the state of the economy. we have a preview of what wall street is expecting just ahead. plus, president obama facing pressure from world leaders not to act on syria. major powers say a strike can cause turmoil. ready to run your lines?

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the nfl season kicked off last night with broncos and baltimore ravens. manning threw seven touchdown passes leading them to a 49-27 route over baltimore. a double overtime defeat last season, manning is only the sixth quarterback in history to throw seven td passes in one game and the fist since minnesota's joe cap accomplished the same feat against another baltimore team, the colts back in 1969.

when we come back, the final jobs report before a possible septaper. steve liesman tells what you to watch and what the fed may take away from the numbers. also, take a look at the ten-year note this morning where yesterday's move reached 10%. yields sitting very high right now. i should say very high relatively speaking for what we've seen in the last couple of years. "squawk box" will be right back. nascar is ab.out excitement but tracking all the action and hearing everything from our marketing partners, the media and millions of fans on social media can be a challenge. that's why we partnered with hp to build the new nascar fan and media engagement center. hp's technology helps us turn millions of tweets,

posts and stories into real-time business insights that help nascar win with our fans.

welcome back to "squawk box." panasonic planning to offer rights to kkr and the partial sale of the health care unit. they include blood sugar monitoring equipment and medical record keeping systems. smith & wesson is coming under pressure this morning. and then timken is spinning off the kcompany's steel

business. you can see that up 5% in the premarket. hopes are high heading into this morning's jobs report. steve liesman is here with the answer to the question of whether or not this optimism is warranted. steve liesman? >> do you remember we went into a number like this with almost, you know, completely unadulterated optimism everywhere? >> that makes me nervous. >> we're always wrong. >> it is hard to remember the market being so quite so uniformly positive about job gains like this. ubs among a handful of wall street forecasters that upped the forecasters yesterday going into this number, ubs is up to ten down from 170. >> ism. >> exactly. >> 175 is the number here. but we just did a crash survey, whatever you want to call it, of 12 economic forecasters. and their numbers actually more like 190 up from 180. >> is that the whis per number? >> i don't know, if you took the tik to figure it out, the 11

guys including ubs, goldmanment they're not necessarily quite so high. capital economics. so here's the reason behind the optimism. the claims numbers, the four week moving average is the lowest since 2007. it's not one of the best jobs. it's one of the best ones out there. but this low level of claims or high level of claims is the indicator. the highest number since '06. then, of course, inside that we have horrific numbers. but here are reasons for concern. the trend of august is for an underaccount. housing starts, just okay. you wouldn't expect a huge surge in construction based on the housing start numbers. jobs are slightly negative. adp, just good enough that number yesterday. if you take off government employment, we don't know the sequester effects.

big uncertainty about that. >> what about labor day? does that have any impact? august numbers were better for auto sales than they would have been because the labor day holiday got -- i don't know if it changes. >> i think the autos are doing well. he is optimistic about the autos. nobody knows more about the autos than phil lebeau. >> they say obama care is keeping everybody at 29 1/2 hours. you don't think about putting that on your list? >> it doesn't matter for job growth. i think my buddy vince rhine heart will back me up on this. in the sense that parts time versus full time is a household survey indicator. it is not an employment payroll. the other thing is i have -- i was on this story early, joe. i remain unconvinced by the

data. open to the possibility. >> zandy said the same thing yesterday. >> i wasn't here. what did he say? >> he said that. he said i just haven't seen it. >> okay. >> he said i was early with it. >> right. >> i just haven't seen it. >> two checks i did. i did the percentage of part time is a percentage of total employment and 19.6%, up from 19.1%. the big jump was after 2008. the argument you could make is that it hasn't fallen as a percentage as much as it otherwise would have. full time employment growth -- >> i don't even need facts. >> you do hear it. here's the problem, joe. this affects whether or not you do part time or full time, it should affect a particular class of business size which is those somewhere around 40 to say 55. there is a huge percentage of total businesses. >> burt 19.1% from 19.6% since

when? >> since 2008. >> i sold you september when i got back from jackson hole. >> but you said no september before that. >> you made me change my mind. >> but then there was that other time you said there is no qe-2. >> you're going back to that. >> i am. but then i finally found out, you changed your mind. who said it? >> i know. so now i understand. >> wait, wait, what is the latest? i missed something. >> they are going to taper. >> they will taper. >> he's back. i'm back in that camp with you. i change my mind every time you change your mind. >> i'm sorey. but i thought -- >> you change i didn't remember mind when the facts change. >> where did he say that? >> he used to make a presentation every year about a stock to a group of people at oxford. that's what he did once a year. one year came in. he was bullish of the stock the previous year. he came back and then was quite bearish. someone said lord canes, last year you had us buying it and

now you change. >> he said, sir, things change, i change, what do do you, sir? >> is the optimism overstated here? are people overoptimistic? >> people's attitudes have a higher amplitude than the reality. that always happens. people always get ahead of themselves and expect the federal reserve action sooner and by more than actually will be delivered. as to regard to the taper, it is september. they already paid the price of acclimating market participants. they're tone deaf to the data for four months so they can keep the window narrow so they can actually start september. >> that is about 3% for the fed. now the fed will be following the market. >> they always follow the market. >> but if they had done it earlier before, now they're like hey, the market is -- >> they still did it. they led the market there by the nose. >> for me, three seems fair

without the fed. that's what i'm saying based on inflation and the economy. it's like for once it looks like we're not -- maybe we're not in the market that much. >> what's not fair about the current 3% is the spread. both of the yield curve is the things that out of historical balance here. i think it's 150ment you're . >> people move forward the day it is first tightening. they may be going through the taper. that's because they don't have much sentimentality with regard to qe anymore. but they're going to defend policy on -- at zero to 2000 versus -- >> so what's weird from jackson hole is they debated, you know, how qe works and the bottom line is they do not really understand it. there's the stock argument we've talked about. but to me, the real argument right there is the expectations argument. the market crisis in what they believe the fed will do all the way through for about a year and then overlay that's on top of a

rate expectation. >> that's the mechanism that works for them. >> drew said it didn't work. >> at all? >> yeah. >> but how do you say that in light of the market reaction to the taper? that's a point of -- >> it's a small move. >> it's 100 basis points. >> they announce the action. >> it didn't work to help everything. >> that's a simple question. you lower treasury yields -- >> so the fed will say we can only affect certain things certain ways. question affect rates and stocks. >> we got to go. >> all right. >> we'll see new a little bit, steve. >> up next, final thoughts from one of our favorites, dennis gartman. plus we head to st. petersburg to see what it's like down in florida next to tampa and what the world's -- beautiful place. what the powerful leaders are saying about syria. "squawk box" will be right back.

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the president under pressure at the g-20 to maybe not try so hard and call off a possible military strike on syria. let's go to steve sedgwick who is far away from here. steve? >> yeah, not florida, i'm afraid. that would have been nice. equally nice weather in florida here in russia today. it's a balmy 30 degrees. let's get back to the main event. this is the pressure that you said that president obama finds himself under here at the g-20. he has allies. there was a big meeting last night. president putin to his credit said, look, we're all talking about this on the soid linideli let's get our thoughts on the table. he gave every world leader a

chance to voice their opinion. so the issue was put on the table. i suppose that is one thing to the russian's credit here as well. but was president obama under huge amount of pressure? we have insight from various people at that meetingment i'. the world bank president was at that meeting. kim was there as well. the ec president and the australian foreign minister who is the senior delegate here because we have the australian election was there as well. varying levels of disputes and supports for the americans. let's listen in to what they have to say. >> it's pretty much clear that chemical weapons were used and there was universal outrage. there were differences, of course, in what to do. but we talked a lot about what we need to do now to deal with the humanitarian outcomes of what's going on in syria. it's really very disturbing what is already happening. >> i think there is a consensus on that condemnation. there is a consensus on the need to do something that the

international community should hold the perpetrators responsible. but there is discussion still going on among our member states about what is the most effective way of responding? and then what should be the involvement of the united nations? >> we can't be under the guilded chandeliers in the panels interiors and enjoy a cozy discussion as if syria didn't exist. america delivering a proportionate response, not boots on the ground, not changing regime through intervention. a limited response in the words of the president, is absolutely justified. and we've supported it. >> so a lot of contention about what to do. the australians are supporting president obama's stance. i want to talk about the issues on the stable here. they're very concerned about the

tapering. there's been all kinds of volatility in emerging markets and they're very worried what that means. others said the emerging markets need to look in their own backyard and quit blaming qe. becky, what is not being talked about here, we're not talking about currency wars with japan. i think that is a real step forward from what we were talking about in february. and we're not for the first time in four years, talking about the euro-zone debt crisis, something the europeans are pretty pleased on even though they know they have a long way to go to get back to growth. >> steve, those are great points. we really appreciate it. let's jump off on the points with a final word from our guest host dennis gartman. that currency war with japan, that is a real interesting point. >> that is interesting he brings that up. >> i've been bearish of the yen for a long time. we're seeing the yen breaking down dramatically not against the u.s. dollar but the canadian dollar, australian dollar and if you take a look at it, i can see 20 big figures in the not too distant future. it's interesting they didn't

bring it up, this meeting. it tells me that they're okay with it. >> they're either okay with it or things are so much more focused on syria and all the events that have kind of taken over. >> the fact is if they're not talking about it, i think japan wants to see a much weaker yen to begin with. they left them off the hook. you're going to see a much weaker yen because of that. >> that is something to watch. >> i think so. >> i think so, absolutely. >> let's talk about the bond market. that's the action that we have really been watching so closely. with the ten-year pushing back above 3% right there right now. i said this huge move at these high lefldz. i had to correct myself. if you're looking relatively over the last two years. >> having grown up in the bond pit in chicago and having traded the long bond at a 14 coupon and a 15 1/2 handle yields at one time, remembering even before that trading the eights of 88 that people couldn't believe you had an 8% coupon that came out, 3% yields to me look almost comically low still to begin with. so when everybody is getting excited about it, i tend not to be that way.

i've been bearish of the bond market for a long period of time. and if you had -- if there were not a nonfarm payrolls number coming out, i'd be selling more of it today. the fact is i'm frightened. i trade only from my account. i'm short now. i'm short the very long band. i'm going to continue to be bearish, i hope we get a very large number today. i think we'll get something closer to 200,000. if we get a smaller number closer to 165 and the bond market rallies, my propensity will be i'll be standing here trying to sell a few bond futures into that strength. >> let me bring up the story on "the wall street journal." we talked about this a little bit. it talks about corporations really reinflating, coming back in terms of corporate debt. right now it's about $6 trillion. that is 59% above where we were in 2007 before the crisis. and there's an argument that

takes place in this article about whether this is a good thing because companies are getting rates locked in at lower levels or a bad thing because they are overinflating. my guess would be a lot of corporate borrowing has been pulled forward because people are trying to get in before rates rise. >> i think a corporate treasurer who doesn't extend the term of his debts at this point, it would be crazy. i think five years now he'll look back and say i didn't do that. are you kidding me? and his shareholders will be absolutely livid with him. to lock in rates right now, i think you have to do that. if you're a corporate treasurer, i think you're making a terrible error. >> the fed is going to keep rates low and buying duration of quantitative easing purchases. the fed is the wind under the wings of this phenomena. and by the way, the tresh trishould be lengthening. >> i their they're terribly remiss in not doing so. the rates go skyrocketing. they can't get out of its own way, that's the problem. it should be doing that. >> dennis, thank you very much for being here as a guest host

this morning. always good fun. >> thank you. >> when we come back, we'll take a back to school edition of million dollar homes. we're going to check out cities with ivy league schools and real estate broker to the stars dolly lindz will tell us which is a better buy in this market. in a world that's changing faster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present.

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welcome back.

as we head into our last hour all day to day on cnbc we're showing you what $1 million can buy you. in the theme of back to school, we're focusing on ivy league schools. we september eight reporters to eight very different real estate markets to check out a million dollar home. so here's how it works. we're going to show you two homes side by side and the reporters are not going to reveal the locations. we're going to reveal that after we get a look. last hour the waterfall wonder near cornell beat out the river retreat near brown. now in round two, that home goes up against another ivy league home called the urban roof top. touri >> this house sits on two-thirds of an acre within walking distance of the nearby university and the bustling town built in 1906, it is completely renovated. >> this four story town home is 27 feet wide. it sits on a lot that is more than 2600 square feet.

there is a two car garage and a 50-foot landscaped backyard. >> this house boasts 2600 square feet of living space including a three season sun room. for the kitchen counter, this maple, especially selected from a local mill. >> the open staircase leads to the kitchen which is the heart of this 4,000 square foot home. in the kitchen, you'll find granite counter tops, custom cabinetry and stainless steel aflins plinss. >> this house has four bedrooms and four bathrooms including handcrafted detail, custom doors, windows and nab letry. floor to ceiling bookshelves throughout make this the perfect retreat tore academics and bok worms alike. >> the master suite has every amenity. there is ater as, double sink, soaking tub, a walk in and a linen closet. there are two bedrooms and 2 1/2 more baths. >> ample windows throughout the house show off the unique location atop a waterfall. the largeter as yard, the

perfect place to enjoy the falls below. the asking price, $99 a,000. >> but it's the top level that truly makes this town home unique. there is a roof top with complete skyline views, a hot tub and a wet bar. this architect's masterpiece home is on the market for $1.1 million. >> okay. we don't even need to guess because we saw the skyline. >> it doesn't matter. >> we saw the comcast building. >> it's in the city for $1 million and it's not -- >> i think brian roberts can see from the comcast building. >> dolly, are we right? >> you are right on the money. right on the money. and it is a terrific house. it is nine minutes from upen. so really great location. built in 2010. so it's brand new. you know i have to tell you, it is urban digs extraordinary nar. you know, just an amazing house. and it's 4,000 feet. >> that's a lot bigger.

>> you can really just walk to school, walk to -- >> you know, philly is a funny place where the neighborhoods are not all so good. it's an okay neighborhood. it's fine for philly. >> is there a helicopter pad? >> yeah. >> very small helicopter. >> if i need to get here in the morning? >> we could do it, yeah. we could work it out for you. >> which is the winner? >> well, if we talk about all the differences between the houses, one is almost 100 years old, one is brand new, the house where you went to school would rent around $4,000 a month. the philly house would rent for about $8,000 a month. >> wow. >> the taxes on the philly house are about half of the taxes in ithica. so even though unemployment rate in philly is a lot worse than it is in ithica, it is urban digs. it is hot as anything. my son went to penn. so we are picking philly. >> are you going to buy it? >> am i going to buy it?

>> no. he graduated. there will be a lot of buyers and the house is just about to go to contract. it's a hothouse. >> okay. don't go anywhere. we'll be seeing you throughout the day. the million dollar urban roof top winning round two. do you agree? that's the question of the morning. tweet us with th the #milliondollarhome. you can catch dolly on st. "squ on the street" to see how the next house fairs. >> when we come back, the august jobs report, the number of the month and maybe the final indication on whether the fed will taper later this month. as part of our countdown, we're providing analysis on what to expect and what it means for your investments. check out our live blog on our website.

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welcome back to "squawk box." i'm joe kernan along with my other two -- three co-anchors. >> very kind. >> you invited me back. >> was that yesterday? >> yeah. >> you know, i know why. do you want to be -- can i just call you the third ke host? >> i'd be honored. >> that's why i was saying it. forecasters say the economy added 175,000 jobs last month. it's going up a little, i think. the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 7.4%. and liesman pointed out this is like unanimously optimistic about this thing. definitely georgetown was going to win and beat illinois.

averagely hourly wages are expected to rise by .2%. and the futures ahead of the report -- got a little bit better. the higher move may have to do with the ten year which backed off a little. >> it backed off but ever so slightly. yields topped that key 3% level. the last time that happened was in july of 2011. more than two years ago. now you can see it's at 2.962%. backing off but not by a huge measure. the historic high is 15.8%. it hit that level in september of 1981. if you're wondering why the ten year is important or who might be paying attention to this number, listen to former fed chairman alan greenspan on "squawk box" back in december of 2010. he had a piece of advice for cnbc. >> you would kindly get a little

less libor on your streamer and more ten year note? >> yes. >> do we go heavy on libor? >> i know what libor is. it very rarely changes. the ten-year note is what it's all about. >> as for the 30-year bond, the yield hasn't topped 4% since early august of 2011. chuck? >> north of the 30-year. you should have bought a lot of them. think about it. >> yep. absolutely. >> that's what we've seen with plans and even ten years. can you imagine being locked in for ten years? >> there are junk bonds that trade at 8%. >> that's like state and local. that is like 30%. >> unbelievable. >> it is unbelievable. if can you find one that is call protection, it can be called away from you. >> 30 years it would be gone. >> yeah. it would be gone by now. >> but i was saying, people didn't want to buy those. they want to buy floating rate paper. >> it's like people that want

adjustable rates now. >> the client knows what he wants. less than a half hour, the labor department is going to release the august jobs report. so what can we expect? joining us, american enterprise institute economic policy study director kevin hasses. christian weller, professor at the university of massachusetts boston. if he did harvard business, it could have been boston instead of philadelphia. harvard -- we were talking about the houses. anyway. he is a senior fellow at the center for american progress. vince rhinehart is still with us. kevin, the reason i'll start with you is you've been -- you were always on the high end even though being an aei, a lot of your colleagues there think that some of the government policies have actually held back the recovery. yet, you've always come in on the high side. >> well, just this year. >> just to make sure you're

right. >> i'm kind of right just -- i'm about to be really awfully wrong today. i think it's just that mark thought that the sequestration was going to destroy the earth, the economy. >> he's exaggerating. >> i'm not exaggerating. >> compared to what you said the stimulus did for the economy. you want to talk exaggeration. >> the sequester was not as negative as a lot of others thought. there are a lot of other things starting to get in order like the wealth infect. >> effect. >> so what is your number? >> 190. >> yeah, we're at 190. data can kick that up to 200. >> mark, you cheat because you have all the adp data. you want to recuse yourself? >> well -- >> he cheats but he's wrong. >> what's that all about? >> i'm at 180 which is squint consistent with adp. >> there's a month when

businesses don't respond as quickly to the survey. the proportion of businesses that responded is very low. you remember august 2011, remember the first print that was zero? >> that was two years ago. >> what percentage respond to the survey? traditionally? >> by the end of the month? >> generally, 80%. in august, closer to 70%. >> what is your number, christian? >> well, definitely above 175. this month sort of going with kevin, very positive. i think 190 is definitely in the cards. >> i can tell you really quickly, there are comments that -- >> i think there are a number of positive indicators out there. i think we're going to beat expectations. >> very quickly. there is breaking news. chicago fed president charlie evans is making comments this morning in greenville, south carolina. he says that he does see the fed tapering later this year. some of the comments he's making though, people are suggesting that he wouldn't necessarily be in favor of it in september. he says the economy, there's

still going to be looking at all this. it remains very data dependent. the economy is very important on all of this. he says the taper is not that important. the balance sheet size is the key. and the economy still needs support from the easy fed policy. so vince, you hear things like that coming from charlie evans, what does that tell you? >> the san francisco fed said something pretty similar. basically the idea is they don't need qe to send a signal. they have the threshold approach so they can convince you they'll keep rates low for a long time. and it's the effects of qe. it's about the stock of treasuries and they hold on their balance sheet. they may be starting, slowing the purchases sooner. but they're going to take a long time to do it and never going to sell assets. >> so first-rate hike likely in mid to late 2014. >> that's right. >> futures say that. >> you have a future there. >> did somebody say taper in september? >> september tapering. >> like a week and a half? >> exactly. >> they should have tapered

months ago and done it by a penny. then we wouldn't be obsessing. that's what they should do. >> 84.90 billion worth of stuff. >> we would still be obsessed. >> they set the excrediscreet ln the sand. >> again, they paid the price of acclimating markets, getting people used to it. pull the trigger. they can control it by the size and composition. want to be a little more friendly because you're worried about the data, start at $15 billion. >> what is the lowest number? >> 10 i think is the lowest. >> you can't do five? >> you want to do enough that we're not mocked, how about that? >> but if you eventually had to go back to 100, it wouldn't be above 85. it wouldn't be good if you even did a penny. they want to make sure they don't have to retrace their steps. >> but 85 is a number now, too. if they say we're going to begin the taper and then taper by 10. they say we may go up or down while they're doing it, then i

think we're no longer in this either/or place that we are right now. >> central banks love options. they're going to say they're data dependent. true, they may have cut this time around. but this he could increase or decrease next time. it is all data dependent. the fact is they lost their confidence in qe additional purchases providing stimulus now. they're a little more confident about the outlook. they're betting everything on the thresholds. they can control market expectations through the 6 1/2 and 2 1/2 percent threshold. >> christian, at the center for american progress, are you just like a constitutional amendment to make qe permanent for pr prosterity? >> we're not big on -- i think it's an interesting tool. i think the uncertainty and the guesswork is certainly adding to the overall uncertainty. but i think -- i expect tapering to happen a little later than

kevin does. i think that was just mentioned about the data driven policy. i think the fed is waiting for the policy for more data especially in the labor marketses comarkets coming in. i'm not sure that starting to taper now would $10 billion and then possibly retracing your steps is going to help the market all that much given that you clearly want to see a tapering at some point, not sort of a potential papering that is not really a tapering that would create even more uncertainty. >> right. >> everybody is staying. our guests and all of our anchors, becky and andrew. we'll be back with more of our panel in just a minute. >> syria dominating discussions among world leaders at the g-20. we'll bring ut latest after the break. plus, could the ford ceo getting ready to hop behind the wheel of another well known company? can you guess what it is? we have that buzz next. first, as part of our countdown cnbc is providing analysis on what to expect what it means for your investments.

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the good news between american tower and global tower, they don't have to change their names at least too much. we should say that global you toer is owntower is owned with dutch pension fund manager tggm. so a big deal. not something to sneeze at. >> let's talk about our corporate topper of the morning. the ford ceo is playing down reports that he could leave the company earlier than expected. speaking on cnbc earlier this morning. >> clearly, immensely focused on ford and we have a great partnership with microsoft, as you pointed out. they helped us and partnered

with us and developed the regional sifrregion al sifrpg system. but i absolutely love serving ford. >> the board of directors is open to letting him step down earlier than expected as he explores other roles. the ford boss has been mentioned as a possible candidate for the microsoft ceo position. i miss this when it was out last week or the week before and you were talking about it. but that is an interesting -- >> yeah. they figured that out because of the seattle roots and boeing. >> he still has a house in seattle. he is friends with bill gates. >> a lot of technology. you know, he did pretty well at ford even though he used to make airplanes. >> yeah. a lot of people questioned whether he would be able to make the trance frigs boeing to ford. >> he can do it. i just don't know if he has the vision for this. >> i'm not optimistic about your -- you know, whether you think -- poor meg, you know, she left ebay and doesn't have a chance at hewlett-packard because it's different than

ebay. you don't like ceo's going out of their comfort zone, do you? >> i think there are two different types of ceos, the manager and then the visionary. if you dpind one that actually does both, it's an amazing situation. >> he seems like he is kind of like that, doesn't he? he has vision for ford and a great operator. don't you think? >> industrial company. the question is when you get into tech. >> see? >> we talked about this before. we saw lou gershner walk in and he didn't understand the deep technology going on. >> i know you, son. i can just tell you're not sold on him at microsoft. >> let's talk about syria for a moment. the prospect of military action against syria dividing major powers at the g-20 summit. also dividing folks in washington. joining us now, former ambassador dennis ross. he's an expert on middle ease policy and part of five different presidential administrations including the current one. good morning to you.

>> good morning. >> let's talk about the g-20. i want to talk about washington which is the way things are really going to happen at this point. >> i think at the end of the day congress is likely to authorize. but it's going to be much closer call than we like. i think the senate will pass. i think it's going to be a very tough go in the house. i think the administration will have to work very hard and they're going to need the leadership within the house to play a very strong role. it's going to have to be quite intensive in terms of making this case. >> the leadership in the house is already saying while they support it that they are not going to be responsible for being the whips and getting other members. boehner himself said he would let members vote their conscience. >> i have no doubt that that's what they're saying. i think when push comes to shove and you think what the consequences are going to be for us, we have a red line out there and if in the end the congress doesn't approve this, the message they're sending to the rest of the world is basically a green light to go ahead and you can use any weapon you want and

you don't have to worry about the united states. we're not going to respond. that's a pretty daunting message to be senting. >> it is. play out the other side of this. if we do launch an attack and then -- it is sort of just for our credibility and then two, three days late othr a week lat assad attacks again with chemical weapons, what do we do? >> the message to him is doing it again. the fact is he has to think if we do something, he has to think about the survivability of his regime if he chooses to test it. for him, the costs are quite high. i think he has a very strong incentive to create the impression he's going to do a gait deal. the fact of the matter is this guy has the least credibility of anybody in the world. he'll say anything, he'll do anything, he'll lie. and the fact is we've seen with him any weapon he has he's prepared to use unless it becomes clear to him that it

will cost him his regime. >> ambassador, i read a piece in "the journal" yesterday. his take was that the president was again trying to put congress in a position to be obstructionist and where they'd have to live with that if they did it and it would somehow hurt the u.s. that has worked in the past. but not when public opinion would seem to be behind the congress not ok'ing it. and i'm not sure that strategy would actually work. i mean, congress could definitely hide behind public opinion and their constituents on this, couldn't they? >> no, i agree with you. you take a look at where the public is right now. the public is both wary and weary. and many in congress are quite prepared to hide behind that. they have to think about what the consequences are for us. >> that's what the president should think about, not congress. that's why maybe he should have done it, you know, without congress. >> look, i think there's a basic question here of for the

president as well, what if the congress doesn't authorize? does he act anyway? >> right. >> i think given the consequences of not acting at this point, the message to the iranians will be whatever we say about an objective of preventing nuclear weapons, our hands are tied. we won't be able to act on it. i think the cost of not acting at this time exceeds the cost of action. i think in many ways if the congress doesn't authorize, it seems to me the chances of the president acting anyway will still be quite high. >> ambassador, we have breaking news now. the state department saying that they are evacuating nonemergency personnel from the embassy in beirut this morning. what does that mean? >> i think what it mostly means, it has less to do with what we're talking about with regard to american action towards syria which won't take place in any case until after the congress acts, i suspect this is a threat, a very direct threat that we've picked one lebanon against the ambassador, most likely it is coming from those

connected to hezbollah. after all, hezbollah is the one that attacked the ambassador and the barracks in 1983-84. so i think that this is probably very much tied to a very specific threat that we've picked up within lebanon itself. >> i should also say, reuters reporting the state department is urging all u.s. citizens to avoid travel to lebanon because of current safety concerns. >> it has to be tied to a very specific threat that we picked up. >> ambassador, we're going to leave it there. we respect your perspective. >> my pleasure. thank you. coming up, synchronize your new samsung watches. we're getting close to the 8:30 jobs report. keep your bigger device, really, close to you or it's not going to work. we have final predictions as we head to break, check out the ten-year note. ready to run your lines?

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it's so difficult between part time, full time, unemployment rate participation rate, employment to population. not only is picking the number difficult, trying to explain what it means is 50 times more difficult. but we're here to do that, right? >> we are. we are. and you're sticking your neck out there. and you hit it right on said a couple of times. steve, how about you? >> a couple of times.

>> i'm right in that 180 range. the only thing i think, and i always get slapped when i say something like this just before the number is that there's a lot of confidence in a higher than expected number. the confidence level at 95% is plus or minus like 100,000. so if your number is 180, it comes out at 180, it could be 80 or 280 with some confidence. >> 50,000 is the margin? >> i think the jobs market is getting better. it's healing. 200,000 would not surprise me. the gdp is what makes me more circumspect. >> u.s. citizens traveling or living in turkey that the consulate general has been authorized -- >> that is lebanon. >> that embassy drawing down. they've been ordered to draw down the nonemergency staff and family members because of threats at u.s. government facilities and personnel. and now in turkey. >> this is something related to

syria. >> so much for the specifics. let's go ash the tabround the t catch a couple other people around this, too. mark, what is your number? >> 180 and the unemployment rate could tick lower to 7.3. >> vince? >> 190 and tenth lower on the unemployment rate. >> participation rate is not going o get any better any time soon? >> no, we're all getting older. >> speak for yourself. >> i was at 190, now i go 190 plus one. >> and very quickly, christian? how about you? >> 190 and unemployment to go 7.4, possibly go up a little bit as people enter into the labor force. >> stick around. we'll have this number in just a moment. >> okay. coming up, show time. the august jobs report when we return. we head to a break though. take a look at u.s. equity futures. you see green arrows. of course, all that could change in the next five minutes.

we'll see. take also a look at the ten-year t-note. as we flip that board around, 2.96%. [ female announcer ] it's time for the annual shareholders meeting. ♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. is

is. just a few seconds before that august number. the dow is indicated up 33 points. the ten-year is up, too. 2.95%. hampton pierson joins us from the labor department with those numbers. >> 169,000. august nonfarm payrolls increased by 169,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is 7.3%. average hourly earnings increase by 0.2%. that 7.3% unemployment rate is the lowest since december 2008. we had dig sounwarsignificant d provisions for both june and july. june revised downward by 16,000. july revised downward by 58,000. the july revisions, it had a lot to do, the biggest declines in

manufacturing off 22,000 from what is previously promoted. transportation and warehousing off 19,000. the labor department telling us much of that tied to the auto industry. in essence, the auto industry laid off more workers in july than previously for the model year changeover. they added a lot of folks back in august. private sector job growth in august, 152,000, health care, 23,000, up. leisure hospitality, plus 27,000. professional and business services, plus 23,000 as well. in as far -- back to those july revisions again. government revisions downward in july across the board. minus 24,000. the august biggest job decline, 18,000 jobs lost. primarily in the motion picture industry. one other item of interest, the labor force participation rate in august, 63.2%.

the labor department tells us the last time it was that low, you got to go back 35 years to august of 1978. back to you. >> all right. hampton, thank you very much. let's get to our panel for reaction on this. steve, tell us how we should interpret the numbers. not too far out of line. >> the july revision is the one that is going to raise eyebrows. >> but down 16,000. >> it was down 62 -- 58,000. >> yeah, 58,000. a slight downward revision for june. i will point out what lou said is august is a number that is typically revised up by 50,000. this looks like a lot of seasonal stuff in here. i do see a lot of positives in here. i saw information down 18. financial activities down 5. everything is positive or to the upside. the curious number is government is up 17,000. >> everyone's will go to school early in august.

>> the total measure of labor slack in the economy. now for the household survey, workforce declining by 300,000. that's troubling, i think unemployed declining by more than, down 200 thou. >> why is the market up so much? >> here's what i -- >> not too hot bs not too cold. >> not too hot but it's still pretty good. >> i must give my classic caution in the first several minutes. black box trading. i don't know that any humans have actually touched a button just yet. what is happening right now, literally, is computer programs are reading headlines off of reuters and bloomberg and making trades right now. eventually human beings get involves. you see it's going down there, joe. >> yeah, we'll see. >> but that's rick. >> kind of a disappointing number with the 169 and the revision. >> i agree. there are people on up side. what i would say is that this number should be right in line with consensus. i would expect you keep the fed on its appointed round of

tapering. >> this is the september -- you're going to the previous position or current? >> i don't know what -- >> you're flip-flopping. >> i change my mind. >> the september stuff. >> this number is in line. >> does anyone want to disagree with him? >> on the september taper? no. >> maybe it's 10 billion, not 0 billion. >> a small taper. >> rick, why don't you weigh in on what you think is happening in the market right now. >> i just think it's absolutely horrible that we -- that we're in a marketplace where we get a lousy report, 35 years since we've seen these participation rates and, listen, you know, you can't hide the spread of 4% to 4.5% of the advertised rate than what it would be should you go back on that participation rate. see, those people are not working. they're not buying houses. they're not buying cars. they're using services. they may be using entitlements

or welfare. you can't hide the millions of people forever. so we wonder why we see our cost to take care of people in between jobs rising faster than other areas, let improvement in the economy. not good gdp. that's why. you can't play this three car montie game for long. to see the stock market rally on crappy data to me is just a horrible dynamic. what are we, a banana republic? >> vince, what came to mind when hampton said the lowest participation rate since 1978 is you just told me it's low because everybody is getting old. so what the hell is happening? its like when i see the warmest period ever was in the '30s and much lower co-2 levels. then the glaciers retreat, there are big forests that we realize in the middle ages it was warmer than it was. why? why was 78? why was the participation rate so low? >> i'm glad you put it in the big picture. participation rate is going to drift down over the decade

because importantly female participation was no longer going up. the cohort requiring had the same attachment as the cohort replacing them. that hadn't been the case in decades before. 2000 got obscured by two big events, 9/11 where we created enormous demand for low skill security jobs and then the financial crisis where we evaporated $5 trillion worth of -- >> this kills rick. this participation rate is -- >> oh, yeah. >> it is a problem for the medium and longer term prospect for the economy. >> greenspan is right. we don't show the ten-year yield enough. i'm waiting for it to come back out. i want to see what the latest number is. sitting at 2.959. there it is. >> that might be why the market -- yeah. >> market is down 2.5% from start of the recession and most estimates put 1.5% of that 2.5%

as demographic. >> when you lost that many and coming back from that, you would hope that participation rate would be going up, not down. >> you're right. >> i think joe has an important point which is that there is a participation rate that you would expect on sort of a neutral equilibrium. but there is a participation rate you expect if, for example, the job market were hot and people with -- they're making that decision. should i stay in the labor force or not? and if wages are high enough, it change that's. >> about a percentage point of that decline is that factor, right? >> right. people are saying i either have or haven't saved enough. but it's not worth it for me to work. it's not worth it for me to look. part of that is a reflection of new job market. another piece is just demographics. what is it, 10,000 babyboomers retire a day. most of the work i see half and half. you're saying it's more 60/40. >> rick is right. there is a component of it. he is overstating the case. >> rick is understating the case? are you kidding me? >> don't instigate. >> give me a break,

cheerleaders. i'm not the overstater and chief up there. >> that's been a huge problem. people coming in. >> he calls you a cheerleader. >> he called all of us -- >> what is the part time number? >> becky, i was unfortunately talking -- >> why not? >> it went up a little bit. is that encouraging? >> yeah. >> health care makes an impact, sequester. that is declining. >> i don't care if i'm old. i'm not retiring. you always say that people greting old and retiring. i'm not retiring. regis philbin got a new job. >> the new part time to me, it fell from july to august by 334,000. those would are part time for economic reasons fell by about 310,000. those part time for noneconomic reasons rose. it's a survey. and whether or not people answer truthfully, we don't know or if

they even understand the questions. >> that's because r because of volatility of the data. >> it's a year over year three month average is the better way to look at it. and if you look at that way, it's, as i said, in line and one -- if you want to talk about obama care, the best defensible explanation is part time workers are not falling as fast as they otherwise might perhaps because of obama care. it is hard to find a big increase. >> you had stuff from richy that you were very excited about. i wouldn't want to steal your thunder on that. >> pardon? >> you had some stuff from people richy that you read that you liked and you were very very excited about. >> it's not excited. it's nice to see that there are people out there trying to work the numbers to give us enlightenment. you know, steve, we had a conversation -- >> about zz top, let's be clear. >> well, yeah. i don'ts understand why the administration or any administration whether it's about the trends in debt or the trends in the participation rate

or the trends in part time, it always seems to be a political blame game. it wasn't us. it was them. you know what, steve? you and find one area we agree on. you know what? i don't give a blank who caused it or why the trend is going. but i know one thing for sure -- if these continued trends on demographic participation rates continue, there's going to be like 50 people supporting the country. we need to fix this. >> i agree. >> and whether it's women working or whatever, we need to fix it. >> i know we have to go. i also think you're a very cool guy, rick. >> you know what? he is a great guy. he has the song. there are too many that look at the economy with cheap sunglasses. >> thank you, sir. thank you, steve. coming up, beyond the jobs report, corporate news to watch today. among the stocks on our radar, apple. we'll going to talk about the tech's giant next big thing. first, let's check in on the ten-year t note one more time.

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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. the number of the morning, the august jobs report. it came in at 168,000 -- 169,000, nonfarm pay rolls. had a is slightly below what the street was expecting. the number was out there 175 to 180 was the consensus. the whisper number was closer to

190,000. unemployment fell to 7.3%, that is the lowest self since december of 2008. our panel of experts around the table immediately said they do not expect this to change. what they thought the fed was going to do in september which is taper. the market may be telling you something different, though. right now the ten-year note is yiel2.87 #%. before the number was reporting, 2.95%. so that is a number to watch very closely. futures picked up quite a bit on the number. it was up 79 to 80 points. still, the market is looking at this like a goldilocks number. i'm not sure if they think the fed is going to taper. >> and now it's not going -- at some point there are other things involved, right? >> anyway, let's talk about corporate news. you can see next year the

company shares at 49856. and brian blare is senior research analyst here to talk about some of this. it always seems to me the stock seems to always run before the announcement and then everybody seems to be, i think, slightly disappointed on the announcement. >> that's exactly right. we get a lot of rumor, a lot of expectation that builds up into the event. the stock often does very well right up to the day of the event. and then inevitably there are things that don't get announced that people expect. we often see a selloff afterwards. >> is that true even when steve jobs was there? >> absolutely. there were a lot of rumors and things people would talk about in the weekens ahead. >> so this is going to -- like today's number is sort of met. sort of a letdown either way. >> right. >> will next tuesday be -- we had you in on wednesday, you would say nothing doing here? what is your expectation? >> i actually think there is going tb a great event and the

stock is going to do well afterwards. they're attacking the mid tier of the smart phone market with this iphone 5 zs c, this multicolored iphone. i think that will get a lot of people excited that apple can continue to grow iphone units. i think the stock is going to work after the event this time. >> all right. the iphone 5 s is going to look like this. that is the regular 5. then we'll get the other ones with the colors. is there anything that you think we can possibly get that would be a surprise, a true surprise? a watch, a tv, something i haven't thought of, bigger version of this, something? >> no watch, no tv. the big variable is they bought a company last year called authentic. it is a biomet rick fingerprint censor company. they're going to build that into the iphone 5s maybe the c. what is the functionality of that is? is it just for pass words? security or a larger e-commerce play? in order to use your phone for any commerce device, it needs to know who you are. so that's the big variable. that is one possibility that could really get people excited. >> have you played with.

ios 7? >> yes. >> is it an improvement? >> yes. the colors are bright. it looks nicer. what they've really done is added features that make it look easier. >> okay. >> they're actually building in a lot of things and catching up to android's success. >> is there anything to be said about the new trading programs? apple just started a trade in program. everyone was stuck on the two-year plans. now can you give your phone in and they'll give you money for it. >> right. >> how does that change the economics of this whole business? >> it's very meaningful. the average person is buying a new smart phone every two years. if they can make it easier to trade in your phone in a one-year period, that's tremendous. they're selling more phones, more apps, everything. >> exactly. >> so the thing i can't figure out, what are they doing with this phone? they're going to sell them in other markets? >> yes. >> what does that do to the economics of the carriers if

they're subsidizing these things? >> the carrier wants it, too. they're locking you in for another two years. and they're still getting that -- they're keeping that user. it's great for the carrier and much better for the hardware provider. you're buying a new phone every year instead of every two years. >> that's really interesting. >> i don't know if that's one of your companies. >> it's one of the companies i pay attention to. i think that they can do a fayne job. it just needs to be somebody who can look beyond a pc business, look at smart phones, look at wearable computing and tablets and gain some of the emerging areas where there's a lot of volume. >> is it a silly issue to talk about trying to get a manager come in versus a visionary? is that the right way or wrong way? >> i think the right way is a visionary. they need somebody who can just completely forget about their legacy pc side and look and say where is the puck going here? where is this company going in five years? and so a visionary is critical for microsoft. >> but do you that as allen. he was very good in walking in

at ford and forgetting about the legacy issues. >> the automobile industry is not an area i think about as being tremendously innovative until tesla came along. there hasn't been a lot of innovation and excitement there. i don't know if that is the best industry to compare. zbh yesterday we had mike jackson on. he said the great thing about the changes and the ceo level in detroit is that they really started thinking about what the consumer wanted in a car. and that changed the entire game. you think about that and that is like a jeff bezos kind of philosophy. >> that's true. >> i'm thinking all these things through. >> they need to bring somebody in who is young and never paid any attention to the pc industry and doesn't care about it and doesn't know it. if you talk to any young person, they don't care about desk tops or note books. they care about wearable computing and google glass, they care about tablets. >> the more you say that stuff, the more i think about allen. >> and he's young. >> damnit! >> another piece of the industry. >> nokia deal, winner or loser? >> it's going to be a winner.

i think it's microsoft, they saved nokia with this. nokia was drowning. >> i want to come back and talk about that. you think it's a winner? >> it keeps microsoft in the game relative to apple and google. >> i have more to talk about. >> thank you. >> anyway, coming up, going to head to the nyse and get jim cramer's take. it looks like a waterfall house that we saw on ethica? >> yeah. >> we'll be right back. next week on "squawk box," the five-year anniversary of the financial crisis. all week we'll look at how far we've come and where we go from here. we'll hear from bank ceos, government officials, plus, hank paulson. it's a big week on "squawk box." and it all starts monday at 6:00 a.m. eastern.

all right. cramer is here down at in new york stock exchange. the jobs report immediately the ten-year, the yield dropped. i immediately thought is it dropping because of taper and whether we do or we don't or is it dropping because the economy is not as strong as we thought because it was kind of a weak report? >> i'm surprised, july turned

out to be terrible. i knew it was a bad month but this is much worse than expected. there's two groups i see. there's this group that says, listen, taper, they shouldn't do it. and then there's this other group who says this whole thing didn't work. i'm a stock guy. this is perfect for stockses. anybody trying to outthink it, go to another gig. that's not what people at home do. >> do you think mulally's relative youth would hold him back from going to microsoft? i've been pushing that, jim, 67 is the new 37. >> well, look, i know alan is a good friend of ballmer. i also know that if, look, there's one thing that's really clear about all lan, he doesn't want to quit ford until they get to a $3 to $4 earnings number. he wants what they had a few years ago. the job is not done for ford a therefore i don't think he's moving over. >> do you think he can do it? >> he can do anything. >> you're not convinced that

industrial versus tech or -- >> he can do anything. there's no doubt in my mind he if he decides he wants to turn around microsoft he can do it. boeing commercial, that was a big win for him. obviously ford turn around very good. he's a very inspirational man. i think that what they need in microsoft is inspiration. but at the same time, he's not done ford. so i don't think he's moving. >> all right. i guess we've got to go. i just listened to a long interview about the best thing about the new iphone, really, changing the new colors. we all felt like that was something to think about. >> the cheap version of the phone with a different colored backs. that's going to be the cheap way to do it s. >> the rest of the world will love that. >> i used to want a server but does it come in blue? does that -- remember the i max that came out with all the different -- and that actually worked. the cherry one was a nice one. thanks, jim. see you in a couple of minutes. coming up, the last word to a couple of gentlemen right here. here's a hint. it might have something to do

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let's get back to our guest host. vince and kevin, for the last word. 30 seconds each. >> leave us with a silver lining. >> you don't have to. you can leave us with a negative lining. >> as going into the jobs number people were leaning centered toward a strong number, 190, 200. the treasury market responds. not enough to make the fed change their mind. they can control the risk starting the tape we're the words. characterize the economy as somewhat squishy. they'll do a smaller amount but they want to start to process. >> does that mean the market will do a knee-jerk reaction back the other direction if they do taper? then all the drops we've just seen in the ten-year yield is coming back? >> to the extent the ten-year is coming off, they have taken off taper, it's got to come back? >> we see a number that's just slightly disappointing. you see a big movement at the end of the yield curve. i think the upside scenario is priced in. that means we're probably going to have a stormy fall.

a lot of stuff with debt limit going up and the taper and the new fed chair that's going to be something that makes markets wonder about the upside scenario. >> syria. >> and the fed issue, you can't do ford guide and the fed can't push sglak v push. that does it for us today. join us on monday. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." 169,000 r. of nonfarm payrolls. nasty, down river revisions for both june and july. i'm carl quintanilla, david faber, jim cramer at the new york stock exchange. continued stimulus from the fed. the gold is surging. we're going to run you through all numbers. ten-year yield has come down almost 13 bases is points on the news. that would be the biggest one-day decline in more than a year. as we said, employers adding 169 on nonfarm payrolls. with private sector up 152.