when people come together, good things happen. to learn more, visit coke.com/comingtogether i like to say there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to try i'm jim cramer. i will see you tomorrow! president obama is about to address the nation tonight. but should he walk a tight rope between bombing syria or believing that syria will turn its chemical weapons over to the u.n. for destruction? is the putin alternative credible? personally i think not. meanwhile, the market rally continues. investors like the cooler talk on syria, but without syria bombing the door is wide open now for a fed taper next week. speaking of stocks, we have the biggest shuffling of the dow in almost a decade. three stocks are in. three are out. the man who pulled the trigger

on that decision, jerry baker, will join us tonight live. we'll talk about the dow, syria and much more. "the kudlow report" begins right now. good evening, everyone, i'm larry kudlow. all right, president obama appears to be backing away from military strikes in syria in favor of a diplomatic resolution that would put syria's chemical weapons under international control. here's what defense secretary chuck hagel said about the diplomatic option on capitol hill today. >> all of us are hopeful that this option might be a real solution to this crisis. yet, we must be very clear eyed and ensure it is not a stalling tactic by syria and its russian patrons. for this diplomatic option to have a chance of succeeding the threat of a u.s. military action, the credible, real

threat of u.s. military action must continue. >> all right. my quick take on this, the putin plan is a ruse. it's a poorly bated trap for the u.s. assad cannot be trusted. this u.n. plan is going to keep him in power and assad will not relinquish his chemical weapons for fear of losing the civil war. i'm joined by steve scalise, republican from louisiana. we have harvard law professor al alan dershowitz who has a new autobiography coming out next week. let me start with alan dershowitz. do you buy this stuff? do you believe that assad will willingly turn over the chemical weapons and then somehow or other the u.n. is going to destroy it? >> no, i don't believe it any

more than that iran would turn over its nuclear weapons. iran which runs syria has repeatedly invited delay by saying it would do things that it never did. on the other hand, if it were to happen, it would be the best possible solution. it would get the chemical weapons out of syria. so i think it should be given a chance. that congress ought to now authorize a new red line and if in fact syria violates that red line, the president will already have authority to take whatever military action he deems proper. i think that combination might produce -- >> what's the new red line? do you mean congressional authority for military action? >> yeah, the new red line would be if syria were to use chemical weapons again, if it were not to turn them over, if we were to decide this was a delaying tactic, then he already has the authority. we have learned one lesson from this. if presidents are going to ask congress for authorization, then

red lines make no sense. unless congress approves the red line in advance and the president has the ability to act decisively and immediately. red lines make to sense if you need to get congressional approval. >> should have happened a couple of weeks ago. steve scalise, you're not happy with this. i want to ask you again, do you think looking at this whole picture first of all, are we going to vote -- are you going to vote? is there going to be a senate and a house vote to amend a diplomatic timetable or no voting at all? >> well, larry, this continues to move every day. you know, i think ultimately the senate would have to move first but i don't think the votes are there in the house. both on the republican or the democrat side. to pass this authorization because there's been no clear vision that's been laid out by the administration. and you know, whether the past red line or a new red line, this is something that the

president's got to take care of. this congress didn't make this threat, shouldn't make threats you can't back up. but at the end of the day i don't think that's support in the house to pat an authorization to fire missiles when the secretary of state himself is changing the scope and saying this is going to be tiny. this is some kind of small shot across the bow and they're not really focused on how you get out of this and how you don't put al qaeda in a better position who is actually on the rebel side in this civil war. >> steve, let me ask you before i get to peter brooks. if they had so in caveats put in here -- you're right, kerry said unbelievably small, limited strike and that was president obama's original idea. it would be so small, it wouldn't have any effect on their airfields or delivery. if we thought there was a robust, more widespread bombing action would you and others in

the house be in favor of that? >> i don't think we want to deal in hypotheticals, but look in the commander in chief says this is what america has to do and takes that decisive action and then comes to congress and says this is what's been done, that's the way the law works. i think there would be support bipartisanly if he wants to take that plan. look, i have been in on classified briefings and i have yet to see a plan on how to get out of this. at the same time, you know, what are we trying to achieve? and assad by the way has had weeks to moch the chemical weapons. what are you expecting to find if you went in today, even with russia who we can't trust? assad has probably moved them already. >> peter brooks, therefore, with all the conversation, did putin and the putin plan i'll call it, did it bail out obama?

obama didn't want to bomb much, he was going to lose the crucial votes, the remaining 40 months of the second term would have been scuttled. did putin save obama's bacon? >> no, i don't think so. the devil is in the details because they'll start negotiating in a few days in geneva between the russians and the americans. putin said that the united states has to take the use of force off the table and the potential use of force forced syria to agree to this. so the devil is in the details. we're nowhere near the end of this. the other thing, larry, i think assad believes he can win without chemical weapons. he's killed 100,000 people before he used chemical weapons. he may be willing to give them up and he still wins the civil war. the problem here, larry, is that there's no comprehensive policy on syria by this administration. they're dealing with chemical weapons, but what about the rest of it, al qaeda, the civil war,

et cetera? it's a mess. >> alan dershowitz, there's no timetable. the u.n. is a crazy exercise. we could go on for weeks and weeks and months and months. that's one of the things that troubles me about this. number two, what peter brooks just said, putin and russia want military action taken off the table. they do not want a new resolution in the u.s. congress that would have military action and by the way, they don't want it in the u.n. the french and the russians are going at it as you may know over something called chapter 7 which says if you don't follow through on the u.n. resolution, military action could be taken. so russia doesn't want any military action. what does that tell you? what does that mean to you? >> well, it's absurd. military action is absolutely required. it is the only way in which syria budged at all. it's the only way in which iran might be persuaded to scuttle its nuclear program. it was the way in which iraq gave up its nuclear program back many, many, many years ago.

you cannot win by diplomacy unless you have a credible military threat. the real target of this whole exercise is of course iran because chemical weapons don't threaten the united states, but iran's nuclear weapons pose an enormous threat to the united states and its allies. if we don't act in relation to syria and keep the promise, iran will be emboldened to develop their nuclear weapons. so military threat is essential. i believe the president. i agree with him when he says that without the military threat, this never would have happened. never would have even suggested the possibility of giving up their weapons. now, trust by verify. >> right. absolutely. >> we should not believe anything the russians say. anything the u.n. says. look, if it was up to the u.n. they would spend more time condemning israel for building an extra bathroom on the west bank than for syrians killing

1,400 people. >> we shouldn't believe anything that assad has to say. we have been through this exercise with him. today finally, his foreign minister said they have chemical weapons. this is for the first time. after everyone has known that forever. steve scalise, i understand your frustration, but what i'm suggesting and i think professor dershowitz put it quite well, you need a combination here. if you go down this road, i'd do it for a week or two, but whatever, and you deny the president any authority to keep that bombing option open, and in effect you'll sabotage the diplomatic option as well. >> absolutely. absolutely. absolutely right. >> congressman scalise, can you respond to that? >> this is something that russia proposed. again, do we really trust that russia is going to try to hold assad accountable? >> i don't. i'll make it clear, i don't. >> i don't either. >> i'm saying theoretically, i

agree, steve, but the paradigm set up by professor dershowitz, you need both and in a new resolution. in fact, mccain wants to put a timetable in the new timetable. >> but you also need a commander in chief who is going to back up the threats and not telegraph what you're going to do and who can then move the chemical weapons. you've got a situation that's already got a whole host of problems that have been created by the inaction of this administration to follow through on their threats that they have made. >> well, one of the things as you mentioned they may be trying to buy time because you can talk about chemical weapons, but they can't move runways or move command and control facilities. while they have them and the negotiations are going on, they could take planes off and drop bombs on people. they can send orders out. even if it doesn't include chemical weapons. >> that's the thing. obama has put himself in such a

box that he can't move unless he has congressional authority. as professor dershowitz said earlier, he shouldn't have gone there in the first place, but he's gone there. he can't move. that's an issue. and the second issue, peter, i have to get out of this segment, but the second issue, the u.n. -- the u.n. is a rat's nest. you're not talking days or weeks. but some sort of plit -- >> he needs a political cover. >> months and months and nothing will get done. >> i agree with you. he needs some sort of cover, some sort of approval. he started with u.n., he didn't get it. he went to congress, didn't get it. he needs an approval instead of exerting american leadership and influence. >> as necessary. >> we'll leave it there. thank you. steve scalise, peter brooks, alan dershowitz. now, stocks are back in rally mode and the syrian news is not the only reason why.

we'll have all the hot financial news from a good day in the market. that includes the rollout from apple as well. and later on in the show, senator ted cruz will discuss the big rally in d.c. against obama care today. does he favor a one-year delay of obama care? and what's his take on syria going to be? don't forget, free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity. i looked up the freedom index in the heritage foundation and syria doesn't even have listing for god's same. i'm kudlow. we'll be right back.

a big announcement from apple and the shakeup on the dow and a second straight big rally in the market. lots to talk about. let's go over to dominic chu for all the details. >> good evening. as expected, apple revealed the newest versions of the iphone. the iphones 5-s and c models. it's going to have a processor that's up to twice as fast and have a better camera and fingerprint security camera. the 5-c is the lower cost which will start at 99 bucks and come in five different colors. now, the investing community is still waiting on what's expected

to be an announcement that apple will begin selling iphones to china mobile customers. remember china mobile is the biggest wireless company by subscribers. it's also a big day for three large cap companies. goldman sachs, visa and nike. they'll join the dow jones industrial average effective september 23rd. they'll replace bank of america, hewlett-packard and alcoa. it's making the move because the share prices of those companies is just too low and they want to diversify the dow components. speaking of stock indices let's look at how we finished the day. green across the board. the dow is up about 128 points or 0.8%. the s&p up 12 points and the nasdaq composite adding 23. the bullishness was reinforced thanks to upbeat industrial numbers out of china. they were up 10.4% in august. that beat economist estimates.

stocks got a boost as military strikes in syria seem less likely, at least for now some real bullishness for the markets. >> dominic, great. let me ask you a quick one. why did apple shares fall so much today? >> well, you know, it's interesting, larry. typically speaking over the laston major announcements, the stock has tended to trade down on average. but if you wait another week or month out, on average apple stock does finish up. maybe a short term drop, but apple seems to have some momentum. at least for the last ten or so product announcements. >> all right. the last ten product announcements. stick around. my next guest spent the day meeting and advising on the markets and the economies so let's ask this washington insider what he knows. we bring back andy bush, author and publisher of "the bush update." all right, andy bush, this syria thing, i want to talk to you about that because it's got a big financial market and stock

market component. syria bombing is out of on the way for a while. whether it's a week or a month, god knows, but it's out of the way for a while. does that not open the door for fed tapering, lower bond purchases? the fed doesn't have to worry about bombs away, they can do whatever they want. >> i don't think they'd have held off with syria. they need to stop doing what they're doing. the market's come back and the economy has come back. how much do they taper, is it 5 $25 billion a month or 12.5? the members of the fombc are uncomfortable with the size of this balance sheet. and that's what gets the markets a little bit nervous at times. we're starting to see already interest rate move up significantly. the big thing i have been telling people in congress over the last couple of weeks and today, the rates are going

higher. it is a question of how much -- >> how much higher? >> 2014 -- >> ten-year close below 3%. how much higher? >> 4% in 2014. >> all right. now, second, absent syrian bombing, we're not going to have a blowup in the middle east. so that suggesting maybe not 100%, but it does suggest the price of oil can come down a lot. it's down today of course $107 a barrel for west texas. how much could oil fall? if there's no bombing in syria and this u.n. thing goes on forever like i fear that it will, does oil get back to $95, drop to $90? that would be very bullish. >> yes, it would be, except syria is not the only reason that oil is higher. it's the improving economic data not only in the united states, but in china. you better back that off a little bit because the world economy is starting to come back. the manufacturing numbers have been really good. not only in europe, in the u.s., but of course in china.

they have improved significantly. so be careful i'm thinking we'll get back to 95 really quick. i think we'll get there eventually. >> i think the jobs report was lousy. i think consumer spending is lousy. car sales, we talked with lutz the other night. there's not going to be any bombing near term in syria? my crystal ball is not any better, but what was the buzz? >> well, what you have to pay attention foreign investors, investors don't like the idea of uncertainty, that they don't know what's going to happen. a military intervention in the middle east is what investors fear the most because you don't know how it will ripple out. remember, russians are involved. >> assad said last night, i think i made this point, but

i'll make it again. he told charlie rose in the great interview -- i thought charlie did a great job. assad, a scary, chilling guy, he said the whole region would be involved if the u.s. involves. he said everybody and everything, meaning mustard gas or chemical weapons. that's off the table, andy. and i think i lean to dominic. to me, how ever long it lasts, i don't know if i trust this stuff, but whatever, it's got to be a big positive for stocks. >> yeah, it is. i mean, you take uncertainty away. dominic, i love your work over the year, i have followed you for a while so i'm glad you're on cnbc, this is great. i think he's right. some of the uncertainty comes off the table, it helps the investors. they can focus back on the fundamentals and they look very good for the united states. two quick things on syria. if there's no regime change from military action, why would you engage the syrians? assad going to gas his people. we have found out he's done it

several times, not just once. that takes away that argument and number two, as far as inflaming the region it will cause more confusion not only on what happens in syria, but of course as alan dershowitz made the point, it's with iran that's a problem. so i think those are the key two points for me. >> last one. we're running out of time. we were down in washington, talking to the staff guys, or whomever. what i gather is no government shut down over the continuing resolution or the debt ceiling? can i make that supposition? >> yeah, i think that's right. i think they want to stay away from it. i hope they get away from like the cr -- continuing resolution that defunds obama care. i don't think that will go anywhere either. >> thank you. dominic chu, hang out. we have much more work for you. he'll get updated on the push to get alan malayly to leave ford and take over microsoft. big news there. that's up next.

microsoft shares closed higher today, as speculation heats up over who will be the next ceo. dominic chu is back and he joins us with that story. what do you think? >> well, let's think about it, right? the name we keep hearing is alan mulally who is the ford ceo. for now, he is saying he'll stay through the end of next year but there's talk that ford would let

him leave early for another high profile job. like the opening at microsoft. steve balmer is expected to leave within the next ten months and the microsoft stock is up again if a strong market day overall. seaworld is saying it will cut workers' hours to avoid the health insurance requirement part of obama care. part-time workers will work no more than 28 hours a week. this goes in effect in november, but remember this mandate in the law has been delayed until around 2015. and the new york city mayoral race will be narrowed down today. anthony weiner will likely not be the winner of the democratic primary. he was polling in fourth place, but eliot spitzer could move ahead in the race for comptroller. larry? >> i thought you'd pick somebody on the republican side. >> it's an interesting debate and battle on both sides. but the democrat -- between what

happened with lawrence o'donnell's interview with anthony weiner on msnbc, i don't know. a lot of shouting involved on both sides. >> thank you, dominic chu. the battle to stall or defund obama care is reaching fever pitch after a big rally in washington. senator ted cruz is about to join us here on "kudlow" next up.

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welcome back to the kudlow report. in this half hour, "wall street journal" managing editor jerry baker will join us to talk about his decision to pull the trigger on three big changes to the dow 30. and of course, jerry and i are going to talk some politics and syria as well. but first up, a major tea party event today in washington that's called exempt america. it rallied thousands of people in opposition to obama care. one of the highlights was the speech from texas senator ted cruz. as always, mr. cruz, we are happy to have you on the show. thank you very much, we appreciate it. >> well, thank you, larry. great to be with you and thank you for having me. >> let me ask you something. i don't understand why

republicans in general, maybe you have done this, you can tell me, made a much bigger deal about the federal exemption for members of congress and their staffs from obama care. where they get huge -- a huge subsidy and i hardly hear it from the gop or anybody for that matter. >> larry, i think you're exactly right. and it's part of the pattern that has the american people so frustrated. president obama has granted a waiver for giant corporations, he's done so unilaterally and lawlessly. he has granted a waiver for members of congress and notably he did that at the behest of harry reid and the senate democrats who passed obama care, but then came to the president and said, we don't want to be subject to the same rules that the american people are. and i think all across this country americans are frustrated going why are there rules for the president's political friends and the political elites

and why can't we have the same exemption for hard working american families from the job-killing costs of obama care? >> well, i mean, it's political cronyism. it's washington insiderism. did you mention it when you spoke today at the rally? >> oh, absolutely. and listen, i think the biggest divide in washington is not even a divide between republicans and democrats. it is a divide between entrenched career politicians in both parties and the american people. and so many americans are frustrated that our elected officials in washington they aren't listening to us. every poll that's done of the american people, larry, show jobs and the economy are the number one priority. doesn't matter where in the country you are, doesn't matter if you're talking to republicans, democrats, independent, jobs are the priority. we have spent virtually zero time even talking about jobs and

any. my top priority is restoring economic growth and nothing would do that more than defunding obama care because obama care is the biggest job killer in the entire country. >> i don't want you to forget this exemption. let's talk about defunding obama care. house majority leader eric cantor came out with some thoughts. first of all, regarding the debt ceiling, apparently the house republicans or at least the leadership wants to attach a one-year delay to obama care as their price for raising the debt ceiling. your reaction? >> well, it depends what a delay entails. if it's a real delay, if it delays the spending, if it delays the subsidies, if it delays the mandate, if it actually delays obama care, then i think that is a positive step in the right direction. that if giant corporations and members of congress are going to get a waiver from president obama, then american families should as well. if that's what they mean by delay, i think that's terrific. if not, we need to make sure the

american people are treated at least as well, at least as fairly as president obama has treated big corporations and members of congress. >> one of the things i noted -- i don't know the details of it. it came out today. i read it from some very good reporting from my magazine the national review, but one of the things that is not being discussed is a government shut down. your reaction to that? >> well, look, there has been discussion in the last 24 hours about some republicans in the house who want to have a vote on defunding obama care, but then want to use a procedural trick that would let harry reid strip out the defund language and use the senate majority of democrats to just force through funding for obama care. you know, larry, look, i think that's why the american people are frustrated. they're used to the song and dance to the games. in my view, republicans in the house should stand up, should pass a continuing resolution that funds the entirety of the federal government.

except for obama care and that prohibits the funding of obama care. don't use any tricks to let harry reid turn around and fund obama care. >> senator, heaven forbid, i'm not correcting you. i want to challenge you on this. you're looking at a former associate director of the office of management and budget. >> sure. >> under ronald reagan. if i put my green shade back on, i'm sure you have heard this view before. i'm going to stay it again though. you can't use a continuing resolution which is only about discretionary spending because obama care has entitlements. so you can't use that. c.r. doesn't work for entitlements. look, i want to get rid of obama care too. i want to get rid of the entitlements inside obama care. i want to reform all the entitlements, period. but you can't do it through a continuing resolution, it doesn't work, sir. >> with respect, larry, i understand that argument. that argument came from a senate republican who asked the congressional research service

the following question. if there's a government shutdown, would obama care continue to be funded and the answer was yes, because as you said the bulk of the funding for obama care is mandatory spending. now, we have never said that a shutdown would defund obama care. what i think should happen is the house should pass a conti e continuing resolution that uses language that i have drafted, that i have filed, that explicitly prohibits spending any federal government money, discretionary or mandatory on obama care. >> you'd have to change the whole budget process to do that. >> all you have to do is have a rider. that prohibits the funding -- >> that's correct. in effect, you have an amendment of some kind. you're calling it a rider. >> that's right. we filed that -- >> i mean, you can change entitlements. i'm not saying you can't. i'm saying you can't use the c.r. to do it. >> you can if you attach to the

c.r. the language that defunds it and you say, you explicit prohibit it. >> we'll have a cup of coffee and we'll go through -- hash that some other time. i want to ask you about the president's speech tonight. there's a gigantic shift going on. i want to get your take on it. all of a sudden the bombing mission is over and we're in the diplomacy. do you believe -- do you trust, do you have any confidence whatsoever that this idea that assad and syria are going to hand over their chemical weapons of mass destruction to some international united nations force who is then going to destroy the chemical weapons? do you believe that? does that have any credibility in your mind? >> well, it depends. i mean, let me say at the outset i want to commend president obama. first of all, for submitting this issue to congress. he listened to bipartisan calls to do that. and that was the right thing to do. then secondly i want to commend president obama for agreeing now and asking to delay the vote because what's happened is the american people have spoken up

and the american people have said, we don't want to get the u.s. military involved in a sectarian civil war in syria between sunni and shiite. we don't want to bomb them in a way that would strengthen al qaeda terrorists and that voice has been overwhelming. i have publicly said that i oppose authorizing military force against syria. i commend the president for listening to the voices of republicans and democrats in congress. and listening to the voices of the american people. >> got to leave it there. when we have this cup of coffee, it's going to have to be a double cappuccino. we'll talk budget rules and foreign policy. senator ted cruz, you're wonderful to come on the program again. now, another very special guest about to join us on "the kudlow report" gerard baker. we'll talk about the reshuffling of the dow, syria the outlook

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it even pulled strings with the stoplights. my ambulance talks with smoke alarms and pilots and stadiums. but, of course, it's a good listener too. [ female announcer ] today cisco is connecting the internet of everything. so everything works like never before. shakeup in the dow jones industrial average. here's what you need to know. three stocks are out and three more are in.

the folks at the dow generals indices have added goldman sachs, visa and nike and they're going to replace bank of america, hewlett-packard and alcoa. this is a biggest shakeup in a decade and when it takes place before the open on monday, september 23rd, the top three weighted stocks will be ibm, visa and goldman sachs. so here to discuss is an old friend, gerard baker. now managing director at the "wall street journal." welcome. great to have you here. >> thank you, larry. >> i think the -- i think the controversial one was taken b of a out and putting goldman sachs in. what did you talk about with them? >> well, it's my job to break the happy news to those entering the dow jones industrial average and to talk to the chief executives companies that are leaving. those conversations, everybody is obviously -- coming into the index is pleased because it is

not only -- not only important for their financials, it helps indexes as you know that have to track the companies. actually load up on the stock. but they regard it as an important element of their prestige and i think lloyd blankfein and others think it's that's how they view it. they regard it positively. >> did he thank you? >> no, it wasn't my gift, larry, but a committee decision. we're circumscribed, you asked why bank of america is out, the simple answer is price. the price-based index, you have to try and keep the stocks in the index to within a sort of an acceptable range of the median price. bank of america, alcoa and hp were at the bottom of the price range and any decrease was having a small infect on the index overall. the time had come for them to go

and we replaced them with stocks that had much higher prices. >> all right. we'll leave it there. let's talk politics like we did on the mclaughlin group. do you buy this? do you think it's credible what's going on in so-called diplomatically that assad going to put his weapons -- his chemical weapon, vladimir putin will help the process, we'll all live happily after ever? will it happen? >> we have taken the decision into the hands of the united states and put it in the tender mercies of vladimir putin and others and we'll have to see. obviously i think everybody shares a high level of skepticism. the president said he was skeptical. and the administration has expressed a high level of skepticism and it looks like

this is something that putin is doing in order to strengthen his hand in the region and in order to strengthen his hand with assad. so obviously, the right approach, the right disposition towards this is one level of skepticism. you can't -- you can't expect anybody to have anything else. it doesn't look like the russians are going to do what the united states wants because they're saying, well, we won't do this at a point of a gun. well, if you do this, we'll attack you. >> let's talk about the bombing. i think the threat of bombing has something to do with the u.s. position. main -- maybe even this turn of events, i don't know. but the point is you have to pass the resolution in the house and the senate. do you expect that to happen because if it doesn't, it really will damage obama's position. >> you can count the votes as well as i can. you have seen the numbers, they don't look good for the president. certainly not in the house, but conceivably not even in the senate. the support he had in the senate actually seems to be eroding as

this process goes on. so clearly, you know, it doesn't look good. there's a way to go. we know there won't be any votes here. we don't know if there will be any vote at all. if this russian initiative manages to bear fruit. but right at the moment, you talk to people in washington and in the white house, they're not optimism. >> did he bungle that? should he have gone ahead and make the bombing mission two weekends ago? >> he found himself without it in friends or allies. he had -- you know, i think that was clearly the plan and once they decided that this chemical weapons attack had occurred on the 21st of august, this is what they thought they'd do. >> doesn't have any friends now. he's got the french. >> the french, yeah. >> actually, the french are causing russia some problems in terms of the u.s., so that's good. one friend now. he had one now. he had zero two weekends ago. i think he should have gone ahead and do it. he's got himself in a box with this congressional thing. >> he has not acted you know t

later laterally. he has said very clearly he needs to have legitimacy. the united states needs broad political legitimacy for any action it takes. it didn't seek that former legitimacy over libya. it had the support of britain, france and nato. it was a nato action which is not the case this time around. he felt he needed some kind of legitimacy. if he couldn't get it from u.n. or nato, or from britain, his ally, at least i have to get political legitimacy -- >> how much does he lose domestically? how much does he hurt his presidency, 40 months to go to the end? i don't know how the vote will turn out in the house and senate, but he's in hot water in this thing. how much damage? >> i'm making this calculation right now. if he goes ahead -- if he went ahead with the vote and lose it

on an issue of foreign policy and then was felt constrained to be unable to do anything about it, obviously his credibility is seriously damaged. that's why they're looking around for a solution now. some kind of political -- >> so putin is bailing him out. putin is bailing out obama. >> well, it looks as though, you know, that -- this very action that the russians are taking is something that the russians and the administration have been discussing for some time. and we understand -- as we understand it, the administration has been very reluctant to go along with this. it's been actually saying it's very skeptical about whether or not assad would actually do this and whether this could be pulled off and now they find themselves in the position where the situation has changed. he has little political support right now. very uncertain in the support and now this becomes as you describe it as life line. >> i don't know that i'd want a life line to vladimir putin. >> it would be attached around your neck. >> gerard baker, thank you very much.

managing editor of the "wall street journal." folks, we are over an hour away from president obama's address to the nation on the syria situation. we have a live report from just ahead. [ woman ] if you have the audacity to believe

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can president obama's speech tonight walk the tight rope between bombing and diplomacy? the president is about to address the nation from the oval office in an hour. cnbc's john harwood has all the details. good evening. >> good evening.

the back drop for the speech is in the numbers from the nbc/"wall street journal" poll, not good at all. six in ten americans say they oppose bombing syria in response to the use of chemical weapons. only a third say yes. members of congress are extremely sensitive to the numbers like that which is why harry reid after a briefing from the president came out today and embraced the possibility of a diplomatic route. >> the president's credible threat of military action has opened up the possibility that this goal can be achieved through diplomatic means instead of military means. but overlying all of this if we're going to have any success diplomatically in the future on this issue, we have to make sure that the credible threat of military action remains. >> so the road ahead for syria from here is the beginning of some sort of process in the united nations.

getting rid or quarantining syria's chemical weapons. something you can recally an international coalition for. you have a day in the senate and the house votes that the president was trying to fight an uphill battle to win and then you have the president's speech tonight in which he gets a second chance to argue to americans this is why you need to stick with me and emotionally, larry, when it's turned around because of this syria/russia initiative, whether or not it bears out and proves credible in the long run is at least for tonight the president can say, my policy is working. he doesn't have to plead with the american people in the way that he was before facing those uphill fights in congress. >> tough stuff, john. here to join the discussion, former rnc chairman michael steele. welcome back. >> good to be back. >> one of the reports today is that the chief of staff mcdonagh met with senate democrats, their caucus, and basically said the whole ball game is now diplomacy, not bombing. is that credible?

do you think obama's going to make that case tonight? >> i think he's going to try to do a little bit of both. he's got to go to the american people and justify why he was beating the drums of war and bombing for the last week or so. in the face of this new diplomatic overture offered up by the russians. and so i think he'll try to split the baby a little bit on this and do it a willal bit of both and say, look, we'll take this diplomatic overture and we'll run with it. we're prepared to run with it, but orange will one so far if the russians and syrians aren't serious, then the bombing needs to be a farther -- >> he has to get a resolution through. that's why this is so darn tricky. >> it's hard. >> as john reported, there's no stomach for it right now. >> there isn't a stomach for that. >> the polls show that too. i'm not sure i get this. john harwood, you know, the president talks about and john kerry, this is like a new john kerry, how narrow and limited

the bombing would be. i don't think he's persuaded america. now he says we should trust assad, the thug in charge of syria and vladimir putin, not two of america's favorites. i think the president is in a terrible political box right now. >> well, he certainly committed some terrible mistakes leading up to this that's put him in a difficult situation. i suspect if we go through a process over the next week or two, to try to scrutinize the syria/russian offer, see if it's verifiable. you had the syrian foreign minister saying they'll sign e tthe chemical weapons, it takes years to secure this kind of material. but if they can decide it's credible, then that's a good option that they didn't have any good options before. if they don't, i would be surprised if the president then goes back to congress and seeks a vote given the way we have seen opinion go. i think he may go ahead and act.

>> michael steele, i have a few moments, i'm sorry. do you think the president will act on his own as john harwood suggested? >> yes, i think that's a point of the equation. the congress and the american people would say, what policy is working? i think so that's where the president is. >> all right, thank you. john harwood and michael steele. live coverage begins at 9:00 on cnbc. that's it for tonight's show. thanks for watching. has it's ups and downs.

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