keep it here for more on the big fire coming from seaside park, new jersey. fire blazing. apparently reported earlier that it started in an ice cream shop. tune nor to our sister network for the latest details. fast money begins right now. >> life ve from new york's time square, this is "fast money." against the grain. forget about what's working. a top manager is bringing her three picks to put you and your money ahead of the curve. tech check. the man who gave you the play book for facebook and microsoft is here. and online reservations. which company will help you book the biggest profits for your portfolio?

>> we are trading tonight with john, karen, dan, and mike. let's get straight to our top story and that is trading the trends as the s&p 500 nears a new record, lots of stocks hitting multiyear highs and some of them have been on huge runs. tonight we're asking traders to pick stocks where the trend is still your friend and where the trend may be your enemy. dan? >> here is one. carl icahn has been on fire. he got in and picked the bottom in net flix. the guy has nailed it. he rang the bell on the bottom. i don't think he's going to ring it on the top. whether you're an activist investor. >> seems like sentiment has changed a little bit.

>> there are six buys, 22 holds and a few sells. the analysts have had it wrong. i think there are a lot of good things going on in net flix. he will not tell you before he will tell you after. >> karen, let's go to you in terms of no longer a friend. cbs is no longer your friend. >> we are just not as close as we used to be. >> not as close. a little distance developing we just went our separate ways. >> why? >> they did everything right for a long time. they still do everything right. they hang out with a new group now and i hang out with a new group. >> today, of course, goldman sachs upgraded wall greens to conviction buy and they hit a new all time high is that a stock you would take a look at at this point? >> probably not.

>> okay. >> do you want the ones that are in trend or out? >> out of trend. >> sadly. the lady sitting to my right, she has been dead right about the shippers. i think the trend is now broken. i have seen the shippers start to roll over now. 40, 50% by some of the stocks. i think it's time to get to the sidelines. >> you also singled out net flix but i feel like you were never really friends with net flix. you have not liked it from a long time ago because of valuation? >> we likely won't date in the future. this is constantly coming up in most television considerations. this has a negative cash flow

stories. you have google, amazon and aping endering the share. at these valuation levels, i think it is scary. i have been young. >> short has really driven this thing. it may be a lot more minimal. >> buy face book and sell net flix. >> momentum stocks that are seeing nice momentum to the upside. >> optical networking, exactly. i think optical networking

stocks are king. they have been all over and still the trend is unbroken. twit ser filing for an ipo. apparently it is here. let's tonight with what has been working. you are going into the tech space as well for a trendy stock that is still looking good. >> listen, qualcomm has underperformed this year and it has been attached to the fates of high end smart phone usage. these guys just made a chip for what do you call snit a watch? they're not going to sell to the consumers. 6 it's a cheap stock. i think this is one you can own.

>> julia, the key question here is all about valuation at this point. any read on that yet? >> not quite yet, melissa, but i do think it is really interesting that twitter announced this in a tweet saying we have confidentially submitted adding that this tweet does not cause any securities for sale. there has been a lot of talk about valuation. there has been talk by the 15 billion dollar valuation but twitter has been making big acquisitions to show that it is diversifying and wants to be a leader in mobile advertising. and the advantage that twitter has now over where facebook was when it filed for its ipo is that twit ser a native mobile application. it was designed to be used with

text. so therefore its ads work incredibly well in the mobile fore mat. so i can not wait to read this as one filing, melissa. it's going to be a lot of really interesting information in there. we will be hooking around for that valuation. but i think the $15 billion range is out there. >> hi. do you know who the bankers are doing the deal? >> at this point i don't know anything beyond what twitter has officially announce. i morgan stanley and goldman sachs do have strong relationships in silicon valley. we will be getting back to you on that. >> what will be interesting is if they use twitter in anyway for selling shares. if news here tonight that just broke, twitter is filing for an ipo. they tweeted this. of course. how else would they dissimilar

nate the information. we have seen this before. hot tech ipo hits the market and sucks a share. we have facebook sitting at new all time highs. >> i really like facebook. anden in, i have been fast fired twice on facebook. when i recommended it it went down and then rallied through. the reason i like facebook is that i actually think this is the next global story. they have unbelievable growth opportunity. they have the unbelievable ability to date a mind and the cross friendships that are in facebook, if you will. and i don't necessarily think that twitler be taking market share where i think there will be risks are some of the other social media names. look for facebook mittle of next year. most of the community will be rallying behind it.

>> you think other stocks will be atms or funds or twitter? >> certainly some of them could. if this had happened days ago i would have said apple. now that apple had a bit of a correction, i don't know that it's in the same position. >> i know this will be a hot stock. everybody will want in. it will be at least as hot as facebook was. this is what people want to trade. i think this is a great stock. >> we don't know if twitler make it to the finish or starting line. >> i have a question. the last trades that i heard about were around $9 billion.

>> i will answer that for you. microsoft tried to buy yahoo! for $30 billion. if you're trying to make an acquisition and you need to jump start somebody. >> who would buy twitter? >> but what do you think, karen? >> thank you, dan. >> you know, i think part of it depends on what do they think it's really worth. i don't know what they think it's worth. let's say you are they. would you sell for 15? >> i don't think so. >> when you look at mark zuckerberg, this is something they are going to let run. this is an unbelievable story. i want everybody to think about how twit ser uter is used by ev. every news organization is

blasting their twitter handles. >> it has changed the way we get information. dan, your reaction, is twitter an issue that you would spoebl look at? >> i definitely would. obviously it depends on the voluation. twitter is in a different space. when facebook went public they had no mobile revenue. twitter did about 250 million of revenues last year and 500 million last year. they're in a different spot coming public than facebook was. twitter is definitely something

i would be interested in. >> when you get your hands on that filing, what is the first thing you will be looking for? >> the number one thing that i'm going to look at and this really covers facebook, google, amazon, ebay and yahoo! it's the same thing i look at for all of them. what amount of money are they able to generate or what's the cost per click or per ad? that's been the big difference maker between all of these google's cost per click is down. the move to mobile is killing them because they can get about half as much money on mobile because you have a smaller surface area to put those ads. where as with facebook they are ramping and doing innovative ads. they are cost per ad is actually going up.

so that's the number one thing i'm going to be looking at with twitter is how those two things interplay. >> let me just ask something about that on the cost per click issue. are you looking at as a margin or absolute dollars? >> if you look at facebook they have been able to put in sponsored news feeds which is the desktop has god these right hand ads. that drives margins for facebook and drives their cost per ad. for goog obviously if you can sell marketing for much more you're going to generally get more money for that and, you

know, that's great for revenues, gross margins and profits and net income. >> web 1.0, which i know you are very familiar with. banner ads became too intrusive and they were really annoying. and all of the rates came crashing down. to me, when i think about facebook inserting news feed ads into, you know, a user's feed or on twitter, they just bought this company and they will start inserting all of the ads, doesn't it run the risk that users will get really turned off about being basically, we are the product for twitter and facebook. and don't you think at some point we may feel violated and this revenue model may become a little strained at some point? >> you bring up a really excellent point. i am sure that we have all had the experience of you pull something up inside google and you get hit with an ad and you click out of it. that gets to your poibt of user engagement if you don't like

gooling you can go to another search engine. if you don't like facebook but all of your friends are on facebook, where else are you going to go? you are sort of stuck having to pull through the video ads. we have all been waiting for video ads for close to a year at this point or at least since the beginning of this year and they have continued to push that out because they want to give you a product that is not intrusive to your point and that people may actually want to take a look at. a lot of the ads, some of them i actually do click on because i say you know what? i am interested in an lcd or led tv. so they know a lot about you these days. the ads are much more engaging. >> dan, you know what? stick around. we have got to take a quick

break. we want to stay on top of the story. we want to ask if investors had to sell a stock, what would those stocks be? plus we are talking to barbara about her top contraryian plays. >> i just want to clarify, this is is a confidential s one filing. so what that means is we're not going to get to see this s-1 filing yet. the s-1 will come out officially no later than 21 days before it begins. twitter filed with the sec they did not have to file.

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>> welcome back to fast. we are live here in times square. want to get back to this breaking story. we all remember facebook's ipo. >> i think i was too afraid of going public. and i think, you know, i have been very outspoken about staying private for as long as possible. i don't think it's that necessary to do that.

in the end it turned out fine. >> i want to tech crunch disrupt candy bar. he is saying something in hind sig. at the end of the day it seemed like the right decision. when you're private you can make a lot of long term decisions. >> julia mentioned that under the jobs act, twitter is able to file this confidential s-1 if you're under a billion dollars of revenue. that means that twitter has less than a billion dollars in revenue. they could be making three billion dollars or whatever. >> what do you think the guy -- >> at least at this point. >> what do you think the brand value is of twitter?

what's the brand value? forget the revenues. >> i think 15 billion in valuation is cheap. >> this is is a really important point. the different between facebook and twitter. facebook was already a very mature company. and over five billion dollars in revenue. that stock could go very, very far if there is going to be years and years of really fast growth. >> dan, thanks for sticking around. we do appreciate it. we're not going to see the s-1 for days or weeks at this point. what we do know is that twitter makes less than a billion dollars in revenue. does that change anything for you? >> no. the estimates out there are that

they did about 250 million in revenues last year in call lend dar. now they are running close to 500 million. market cap is about 110 billion. that's what? a multiple of 15 times or so. and so, it gives you at least an envelope of error where you can say 13 to 15 times how much more would i be willing to pay for twitter and what's the right multip multiple. they are growing revenues close to 100% year-over-year and when

you look at facebook, the forecast is about 44%. it is to some degrees, the same analysis. you tried to combine that with what you were saying with cost per ad and it was ridiculously overfalled at 38. i obviously setted a@time when it came public. there is not a lot of data outside of the top line and even that is somewhat suspect. >> when do you shift from looking at the revenue to focusing on earnings? or do you just focus on growth and revenue for a while? >> obviously that's the first place you start. but as you rightly are pointing out, you have to go profits and earnings. people were really excited about

face book but you go back and look and there was something like five or six quarters where they did 12 cents an earning to your point, that is another thing you have to do next is take a look at profitability and what those trends look like they could be. >> when twitter does go public, will it suck the oxygen out of the room? will it take money away that would have otherwise been invested in technology shares? >> it would have to. the good news or bad news is it's only going to come out. you have got face book at $100 billion. you have a lot of the other stocks at pretty high valuations as well. is it really going to impact

google in market cap that much? not really. it's going to come out of a wide variety of names and it could help in terms of focusing people again on this space if twitter comes out and unlike facebook, prices it properly. if analysts have done some reasonable work on it for a change and you end up with a stock that actually comes out and goes up, that may get more people more interested in the space. >> thanks so much for your an analys analysis. there are a number of money management firms that are pubically traded companies. we are working to ged some of the money managers here on fast money. in the meantime we are talking to the ceo of orbitz. that stock is up 250% this year.

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>> welcome back to fast money. news now for the twitter ipo. let's go back to headquarters. >> it is a lead underwriter appears to be solo. goldman sachs is the lead underwriter. as it stands right now morgan stanley does not appear to be on the ipo. of course a formal s 1 will be

filed roughly three weeks before the road show starts. and so of course before they file that formal s 1 we do expect that there would be more banks on that. when they issued a secondary stock, jp morgan kicked morgan stanley out of the lead spot on that one. but goldman sacks is the lead underwriter on this one. >> thank you very much. so many other big ipos is that everybody on the street could be listed as part of this deal at the end of the day. >> but not get a lot of allocati

allocation. >> i think morgan stanley is going to be in this deal. i don't think that goldman sacks will be the sole underwriter. >> you think they will be among the lead underwriters as opposed to just there. >> does that make you change your view of goldman sachs? >> they had the best investment banking for a third of a century. >> okay. we're going to continue covering this breaking story. filing confidential s-12. much more on this story. stay tuned. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves...

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>> all right. we are continuing to monitor this developing story. >> and barbara, you have heard this whole story unfold here tonight. >> i would take a look at anything. we were talking earlier and you

were having a little bit of back and forth and on the value side, you know, being a value manager, i do care about what something is worth. i think the pricing was somewhat all over the place. that's part of what went wrong with that ipo. >> i would like to look at numbers. >> we are all waiting for numbers. >> one of your top picks is apple. we talked a little bit about this notion of twitter drawing away funds that would otherwise go into other tech stocks. >> no. because i don't think anyone going into apple right now is going in for good feelings.

we did have some good things in the new iphone and i remember last year in the weekend around the september 24 release, apple announced that it sold 2 million phones in that week. i think eventually a low cost phone for emerging markets are when and not if you have to take the cash out of the share price. >> it seems like the bar is much higher for am. people don't want to believe in the apple story.

>> you start to get multiple. >> i think the company is the same company it was a couple of years ago. some people think it's not exactly the same. but the culture is a company of innovation and i think we see that with the new releases and i think we will see. >> possibly something wearable. until we see it, you don't know. >> it's like the i paipad and t minny. >> when you talked to henry

ford, he would have said they would have wanted faster horses. who is really agitating with the tremendous intensity. >> i think sit is a company of innovation and there are people who continue to push those product products and continue to say that we have to have products that people want to pick up and use. i think we will see a wild product. >> we are going to leave it there. thanks for bearing with us. barbara, want to go to mike here. and whether or not you are tempted. >> it's interesting. a think a lot of people know that i care a lot about what the bottom line has to say. one thing i will say that is is a positive for twitter.

i think everybody on the desk probably is using it constantly. it has become kind of a news wire. i think there is is a lot more promise there. i think can i see where this can be developed significantly. you have a lot of potential upside there. >> as we head to break, take a look at the tale of the tape. groupon is down more than 40%. coming up next, we will get a top analyst take also the biggest and best moments. stay tuned.

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>> it won't be confidential. what are you going to look for first? >> it is just the underlying financials. we know the company has less than a billion dollars in annual revenue. that's the only thing we know from the con i have dential filing. we will get to learn that and i think that will be the top line and we could be talking months and months. >> we are talking about the expectations prior to the facebook ipo going public. do you think we are setting twitter up for that same sort of potential fall? >> we might be. most of them have not been

successful. you think of zynga being one that failed and i think twitter will stand on its own. i think when we keep talking today and the last 20 minutes we could be in for a long wait. >> wow. so we're going to be talking about twitter possibly for quite some time. >> it's possible. they could file pubically tomorrow. we don't seem to have any indication if they have picked an exchange or if the bankers are solidified. . >> we get a glimpse of how they

trade and where they are valued. >> we will be able to clean that it has been relatively stable. there is not a huge number of twitter sharers unlike facebook which is is a free for all every employee. one thing twitter did take is they didn't want all of their employees sitting on their computers trading their shares. it has been sitting around $10 billion. >> great to speak with you. thanks for your time. let's switch gears and talk to the ceo of an internet stock. let's ask the ceo.

>> you hear what the news is this evening. we have got ask you your take about this twitter news. what is your reaction? i assume that you use twitter yourselves and maybe for your company? >> lit be fun to see how they do as they go through the ipo process for sure. i am curious what your thoughts are on twitter deciding to take this step. there is is a lot to be said for transparency. >> let's talk about your business now. your stock has been a monster this year.

it is trading at a premium to a lot of your competitors. so i wonder i want to bring up a couple of points that the bears will bring up. there is concern that the mar jins will come in at the midpoint of the range and that is is a deceleration. what is accounting for that margin pressure? >> you know, we have taken the opportunity as we have had a successful year to date to step up the invusment in a number of areas. i think our main focus is on the hotel part of the business. we have seen substantial acceleration.

as the business performs well it's a great opportunity for us to continue investment. we increased both the midpoint of the guidance change for revenue for 2013. >> in terms of bookings, a lot of analysts will point out that you are coming up on tougher comparison comparisons. >> we don't guide specifically by product. in july we saw 22% from the second quarter. je, it's a comparative category. i think investments are really setting us ep well for success. one of the things i am most excited about is what we are doing in mobile and how we have been able to deliver world class

apps and very recently for android. >> thanks for your time. the ceo of orbitz worldwide. >> i really like trip advisor. that's my pick of these. i like that model. and because of the aspect of mobile where everybody is going, they are already there. >> we're getting back to the story of the night. we will be talking to a top analyst for his take. could t paid to do s

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>> let's get the latest on the fire burning in seaside park. >> the latest that we have right now is that governor chris chri chri christie is on his way. but what you're seeing there,

again, the fun town pier, this is pretty dramatic foodage. there are reports right now that winds in the area have been gusting around 20 to 25 miles an hour. that is of course not helping matters with trying to contain the fire. it's spreading north into spoebl seaside heights. we're talking about a resort town that is pretty much in the middle of atlantic city and new york city. again, a big popular vacation spot. we will bring you more details as they become available to us. you should know that state emergency personnel and the governor himself are headed to the scene to assess what is

happening. >> okay. thank you so much. we do want to get to some other news. carl icahn sold half of his stake and now he has exited that position. so we see the stock down. just talked to him. >> yeah, i think, you know, i know that it would be so sad to see them go. it worked out really well. i wonder if he will stay on the board. >> once again, carl made an absolute fortune here. probably up to two and a half times. >> another stock relaided to the big story of the night.

take a look at gsv capital. they had a $35 million stake in twitter. so, they had been early investors in facebook as well as some of the other companies that are -- could be in the ipo pipeline. we're got to take a break here. stay tuned. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading.

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options. >> all right. thanks so much for watching. twitter filing a confidential s-1. goldman sachs. much more fast money. don't go anywhere. mad money starts right now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm trying to help you find it. ""mad money" starts now. >> welcome to kram eextkrameric. call me. so the streak, the fabled streak it