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tv   Options Action  CNBC  September 13, 2013 5:30pm-6:01pm EDT

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tonight, bullion breaks down. >> the little can cubes that make soup? >> no, the big gold bars, after a huge route could a gold rebound be in sight. we'll break it down. plus, why is mico taking on floyd mayweather? because this weekend's big bout could mean knockout returns for your portfolio. does a twitter ipo mean the top is in for tech? we're breaking it down. the action begins right now.
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>> i'm melissa lee. these are the traders on the desk. some of the momentum names that led the market are showing signs of fatigue. tesla shares, taking a breather. new internet darling zilo is a market losing its mojo momentum stocks. what do you think? >> i would think they're taking a pause here. they've appreciated so fast in a short period of time, i think that the value of the game year-to-date speak to risk appetite. there's been a lot of it. we see we're having one of the best years in the s&p and nasdaq. these things don't really represent value. so to me, it does speak to the facts that people are chasing performance and they know they've got it here. >> what does it mean if they're losing steam? if the fuel higher was the trade for performance -- >> my question would be a pause
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on the way to wear. i don't see how you could possibly justify getting long these names or committing new capital to these trades, especially if the momentum portion of that trade is over. every single one of these stocks is really a nose bleed valuations. tesla -- >> you could have said that months ago. >> i did. >> you did. exactly my point. >> netflix has been up and around the 300 level for a while now. tesla, obviously, it had a heck of a rally. obviously, i thought that was over kudos to grasso for calling the momentum trade there. but listen to musk himself, he's not out there saying this is a screaming buy at these levels. if anything, he's actually putting a lot of cold water on this as well. >> and grasso said today he took profits in tesla. scott, in terms of the options market, what are they saying? >> people are trying to get protection. for good reason. a name like tesla has come so far so fast, the thing about the option market for tesla is it's
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the really only the way to short it. for momentum names in general, i think newton's lesser known fourth law is that stocks run too far. when they run too far, it gets ugly in a hurry. i think netflix, the amazing thing there is not that it came all the way back, but that it came all the way back and people were jumping onboard. index traders love to watch the s&p open lower on the day, get all the way back to unchanged and then sell off. that's kind of what netflix is setting up to do. it got all the way back to its all-time high. now it's going to be ugly. >> i would answer your question, though, what does it mean for the market right here. these are companies that had $3 billion, $4 billion market cap a year ago, now they're $18 billion, $20 billion. we've just seen money come back into some cyclical names, that would benefit from a global reflation trade. >> that's what seemed to be a good sign. >> it is positive.
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>> how does that sit with you, mr. bear? >> it doesn't sit well for these names that i think have run out of steam. and that's one of the reasons netflix is a great name, because it got some news this week, it actually had two downgrades to the sell side. we had carl icon on the air earlier this week saying he hasn't sold a share of it yet. this is a guy who bought it at the dead lows over a year ago at 70. now here it is above $300. >> so dan's got a trade obviously tonight on netflix. this one's a little tricky. so let's open the playbook to see how it works. you protect yourself, and then buy one even lower strike put. this may sound complicated, but the goal is simple. you want the stock to go to the strike of the puts that you sold. that's where you make the most money. dan, walk us through this trade. >> the trade exists because of this. carl icahn, if you rode his coattails on this one, you don't want to wait until you hear he's
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out of it. some of the things that show the declining momentum, the gap that we've seen throughout this year are doing so on lesser and less volume, short interest is at a two-year low. when you look at that chart right there, the price and short interest charge has gone exactly haywire. i think i want to make a short-term bet that the stock is going to pull back 10%, 15%, 20% or so. i wouldn't short this stock with your money. basically i'm going to define my risk and set up a structure where it's a said it and forget it trade. when it was about $304, i bought the october 280, 255, 230 put nye for $3. i sold two of the october 255 puts at 230, for a total of 460. i bought one of the october 230 puts for 75 cents. that cost me $3. that's my maximum risk. between 277, and 233, i can make up to $22 with my maximum gain
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of 22 at 255. this is a said it and forget it trade. i'm willing to risk 3 to thread the needle in this case that this stock is down 10%, 20%. >> the thread the needle trade is much harder when you use structures like this out farther in time. this makes a lot of sense to me. the last time netflix hit these levels and then collapsed, if you put it out very far in time, it probably wouldn't have worked out because it fell so far. but here, if you're going to try to be more tactical, this trade could make a lot of sense. >> theoretically, congratulations netflix, you're back at all-time highs. i understand why dan wants to be short. the only argument i would have with this trade is, i don't think this is a said it and forget it trad more time there is to expiration, the larger the band is where this trade makes money. i would actually get out of this trade if you have a nice profit. >> i have one last point here, in terms of these high-flying
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stocks. we saw linkedin. secondary. the stock acted very well. you would think that would be sort of not gain for them, but a setback. how do you leave that into your belief that netflix will go lower when you see such momentum in the stock? >> i think we had carl icahn on the show last night. here's a guy who's a smart trader here. he's got fabulous gains. i think sooner or later you'll start to see big holders take profits in this thing. linkedin is still growing. it's not nearly as controversial. >> to that point, carl also indicated he actually did want to get out of this stock earlier. it was his son that prevented him from doing that, remember. you have to think that that conversation is being engaged in again at this point. because they've obviously enjoyed enormous profits. >> little stocks versus options here. netflix is a financial equivalent of the lone ranger. expensive and ultimately pointless, shorting any stock carries unlimited risk. dan's put fly offers 8-1 payout in risks just $300.
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well, listen to this. this music can only mean one thing. the fight of the century, tomorrow night, mayweather takes on alvarez at the mgm grand. it has the media world abuzz. getting warmed up for the fight. >> i'm getting warmed up. this is getting serious billing, guys. golden boy promotions is prom e promoting the fight calling it, quote, the one of the that's what they're saying it is. it fully expects to break pay-per-view boxing records. richard schafer says he thinks there will be more than 2.5 million homes that will buy this mayweather alvarez fight. to put it in context, here are the biggest pay-per-view boxing events of all-time. one was the mayweather de la hola. we asked money mayweather what
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drives him to keep driving what he does. >> i stay motivated, because the boxing world is creating these young, strong monsters. in a fight game. the only thing i could do is keep working hard to beat these young guys. these guys want my spot. they want to be at the pinnacle. >> if you want to watch this fight, it's $65 for the standard definition fee. and if you want to see all those blood, sweat and tears all over that ring, it's going to cost you $75 for all that hd action. melissa, this is no cheap proposition. certainly a big boom for companies like showtime if they can get that kind of demand. >> i've got to ask you, who are you picking in the fight? >> i'll tell you what, i like mayweather. yeah, he's had some problems, a little bit of a rocky past, but pound for pound i think he's still the best fighter out there. >> thanks so much. and mike, this really underscores the growing demand for pay-per-view, video on demand essentially content. >> that's exactly right.
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despite the fact that you see rising content costs, and actually art who's driven his drivers at the cable company, haven't been able to grow as fast, their business actually remains quite strong. these are companies that have quite good returns. 12 cents on cash. we're talking about the owner of this network, comcast, which is probably my favorite in this space. >> mine, too. >> conveniently enough. this is a company that's probably trading seven times next 12 months. it's actually a very reasonable valuation. so i think also, because it is so consistent, the options are relatively cheap. all i'm going to do is make a simple and straightforward, and what i think is an inexpensive bullish bet by going out and buying the april 45 calls, $1 out of the money. i'll pay $2.50 and take advantage of the fact that this is just a stock that's gone up at a 45-degree angle. because of that, the options are relatively cheap. because of it, i'm also not willing to just go out and purchase the stock.
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i don't want to go out and buying stock that are basically at 52 or all-time highs. >> a lot of the stocks in this space are at highs. look at disney. what a great week for disney after announcing its buyback. >> up to $8 billion worth? comcast is a unique one, slow and steady one, ground itself up. 18% on the year. if the market's going to make new highs, then comcast is likely to make a new high. mike's option will be in the money. he can sell a higher strike. this is a cheap stock doing a lot of good things. >> this trade is as much a proxy for the stock as any we do. you don't want to sell the upside call because you're not going to get very much for it. one thing mike is buying an outright call. he's going really long dated. that makes a lot of sense because that long dated option is not going to erode very much until, say, the end of the year. >> comcast is the owner of nbc universal. got a question out there. send us a tweet, and we'll answer it. scott's got a way to buy facebook for just 20 cents.
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check it out. also check out our educational material and trader blog. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade.
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♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ welcome back. we take a look back at some of the losing trades. last month mike made a bullish
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trade on gold. it went so wrong, it's already become a cautionary tale on wall street. >> power, fearlessness. >> i'm looking to take advantage of that volatility. >> above all else -- >> we need to move that story. >> risking less to make more. >> i don't think anyone could have predicted that kind of success. >> this is the story of mike's gold trick. this is the true wall street story. >> growing up, mike had never been too interested in gold. >> i am not particularly a gold bug. >> but in august, all of that changed. the shiny stuff suddenly had a magical allure. >> it wouldn't be surprising to see it bounce here. >> mike had to have more, more leverage. so to make a bullish bet, mike bought the november 135 strike
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call for $4.50. now, to make money, he needs shares of the gold etf, or the gld, to rise above $135. buy more than the cost of the trade, or above $139.50 by the november expiration. when he told his friends he wanted to spend $4.50 just to bet on gold, they couldn't believe he was serious. >> my jaw fell to the floor. >> that's when they staged an intervention and helped him turn a costly trade into a thing of options beauty. >> gets it for $1.70. >> that's right. mike sold the november 145 strike call for $1.70, and turned this trade into a call spread. in so doing, he kicked his addiction to risking more. that's because between the call that he bought, and the higher strike call that he sold, mike is now simply paying $2.80 on the trade. and now instead of needing the gld to rise above $139.50, he
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simply has to see it rise above that $135 strike price by more than he's spending, or above $137.80 by november expiration. >> he was at the top of his game. >> but there was a problem. and mike was now forced to contend with a serious tradeoff. because by selling that $145 strike call, it was the difference between the strike of the call he bought and the strike of the call he sold, minus the $2.80 he spent. and since this now classic trade, what's happened? well, gold has moved lower. meaning this trade hasn't worked out. so what's mike going to do now? will he keep trying to cash in on gold? or has that moment already passed him by? that's something fans around the world are trying to figure out. while they do, they'll still remember when mike changed the face of options trading forever. >> can you win a nobel prize for that?
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>> all right. perhaps this might offer some solace. had you shorted 100 shares of the gld at the time of the trade, you would have lost about $600, as gold has gotten whacked. but if mike were to trade out his trade today, had ewould be looking at a loss of about $15.a november is a ways away. a crucial fed meeting next week. mike, what are you doing at this point? >> one of the reasons we were using options, i think i've said before, i'm not a gold bug, but if i was trying to play for a bounce, one of the things i wanted to do is try to risk less. at this point this thing is actually trading about 1% of the value of the underlying. i still have a little bit of time. keep an eye on the higher strike call now. if it starts coming in much more you may want to cover that. >> mike has a little company. yesterday somebody bought $28,000 of the call spreads, paid $1.24. so somebody is playing for a bounce, possibly up to $135. >> i think when you're in a
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trade that's not working, you bail, puke it, pull the plug. then you can take a step back and reevaluate. >> coming up next, the ipo of the century. well, that might be overstating the case. but could the twitter ipo signify the end of the rise of the stock? ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade.
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ing ]
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♪ [ indistinct shouting ]
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[ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ the first pure social media idea. >> what is it going to be worth? >> $10 to $20. i think that's what people are saying. that's what people have been saying for a while. >> cramer talking to the coo of buzzfeed. the year-to-date performance is some of the new internet stocks, nothing short but remarkable. but could a twitter ipo signal the end of this torrid run. i guess the question here is, first of all, does twitter suck
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the oxygen out of the room allocated to the other stocks. >> first of all the amount of money committed to these -- when you just take a look at the market cap, it's so enormous on the margins, could it? >> i certainly think it could. don't forget even if it does have a $20 billion valuation, that doesn't mean they're going to float $20 billion right off the bat. >> i think the demand is insatiable. look what happened to facebook. facebook did double the market cap. $55 billion in market cap to $107 billion. i think there's money coming out of other areas. they think this is the next growth phase of technology. think about all these companies you've been invested in and parked cash in, as far as technology is concerned, with no growth. you don't really get great returns, all of a sudden you have these things -- >> i think facebook and twitter and linkedin are unto themselves in this space. twitter, the interesting thing is, they already know how to mon etease mobile. they do it better than those other two. i think twitter may do certainly
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better than facebook. >> this is extremely sticky. you were mentioning before, content is king. twitter became a key source of cop tent especially for people trying to follow news in realtime. i don't know too many traders that don't have twitter up. sometimes you look at your wire, and you hear something going on -- >> facebook was filed february 1st, 2012, public may 18th, 2012. one of the things i would say it could do is, we may see a binge in the private markets. this may get things like stock twits, people may find some of these more nichy sort of players, because maybe they're the next ipo or next stage of growth for twitter. so that's something that's kind of interesting. but i would say twitter is a pure play here. >> going back to your trade on netflix, sort of the take on that whole space, when investors invest, they don't typically say, i need this allocation to social media, they say thi need
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this allocation to growth. >> we talked about it last night. facebook, the first year it was public, had over $5 billion in sales. right now, the best one that they've filed, twitter filed last night means they have less than $1 billion. they're expected to gross $100 billion a year. that's how you get to the 15, $20 billion number. by the time it goes public. that's really great growth. and that's what real tech and growth investors are looking for. >> 15 to 20 multiple on the ref nye number. i think that's what's interesting. >> this won't be earnings for a while, don't worry. >> particularly if you're yelp. i think there's plenty of oxygen for all these players given the valuations right now. >> speaking of twitter, be sure to follow us at cnbc options. if you're on facebook, stay posted on our trades throughout the week at facebook.com/options action. the final call from the options bids coming up.
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♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade.
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[ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats.
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[ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ paenls landing could catch an important sight at the runway. aviaries are set up in the meadows. it's to test for pollution. really? they test for harmful substances. there's an added benefit that they produce high-quality benefit presented to special visitors at the airport. who knew. i didn't. that's tonight's optional
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viewing. the last word from the options desk. >> for a facebook trade, check out this week's web ex. >> netflix. >> long calls. >> looks like our time is expired. thank you so much for watching. check out our website. see you back here next friday. "mad money" is up next. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome back to cramerica. i'm trying to save you a little money. i'm here to teach and coach you. call me. have you noticed that since the supposedly wicked month of september began, we've had one heck of a ride higher? have you noticed that the

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