tv Fast Money CNBC September 16, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
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leaning towards the bullish side. >> okay. we will leave it there. that will do it for closing bell tonight. thanks very much for joining us. our continuing coverage continues right now with melissa lee. melissa? >> live from new york city's time square, i'm melissa lee. we have a slew of headlines hitting the wire today from a dramatdramatic shooting inside d.c. navy yard that killed 13 people. so let's first get more on the breaking news. here is the latest. >> reporter: hi, we're starting to learn a little bit more about the man who committed this horrific attack here in washington d.c. at the washington naval yard which is about five blocks behind where
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i'm standing. his name is aaron alexis. he is 34 years old. his occupation was as a navy aif onices electrician mate. he joined the naval reserves and what we are told is he has been working as a civilian contractor. this is a mix of civilian contractors and employees and naval officers as well. that is the mix of staffers who were released from this complex over the senate has been on lock down over there. that lock down has been partially lifted. they are allowing employees to leave the senate building. it feels a little bit like things are winding down here, melissa. but the key is that the d.c.
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police officers are saying that there is still a potential person of interest that they would like to see somebody they describe as a black male and say that he has gray side burns who might have been involved about this or informed. they are looking for that person right now. that's why we still see police activity. >> thanks for that. we will keep you posted thought the hour. >> larry summers had pulled out of the fed race. brian kelly? interesting market to hold on to? >> exactly. what was really interesting is last night when it was announced, you would think if you're going to get a dovish bet, gold should have ripped today but it didn't.
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the dow jones and the s&p come back. to me it was not a great close at all. >> 1%. if you told me friday afternoon, i don't think most of us would agree with that. so you had a little funny business going on there. for the most part, i actually thought even though we closed 40 bips off the highs, stocks didn't close that badly. some of if names that are probably benefitting or the global growth trade pretty well. i don't think it was a disastrous close. >> steel stocks have been trading pretty well. u.s. steel, i think those trades are still pretty interesting. we talked about it.
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i will say this. i do think the s&p has got another 15 handles now. we are not going to make a run towards the 1710, 1715 level. this is getting long in the tooth here. i think you have to find opportunities. >> are we to glean from the movements that perhaps it dun make a difference so much that the first fed rate hike could be postponed by a few months? i don't try to trade around anything like that too much. i do think the obama administration needs to choose already and be done with it. i like summers. but they should choose somebody. >> some uncertainty is off the table. syria off the table?
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but, the talk that he gave today, did that indicate that it would be more acrimonious when it comes to the debt ceiling? >> certainly and that is something that the market is going to focus on. in the short term, the other surprises that we could have out there is if there is no taper, there was an article today that it is a flip of the coin. some fed governors had talked about ending the taper by the end of this year. i don't think that that happens but that could be a surprise come wednesday. so you have that and the debt ceiling. it's a tough place to initiate new positions here. >> i would have thought that he would sell off right after he said that. it didn't seem to be on those comments. >> so the question here tonight is not having summers at the fed's helm a bullish sign for
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the market? he is also the author of colossal failure of common sense. >> the president has this political capital issue. he lost some in syria and now it looks like the left side of his party because of some of the other politicians that came out against summers last week, it looks like if he goes with that, that is another capitulation and another give on the the left. that's what i think is going on here. you have really a divergence here between credit and equities involved. you are getting different signals because of massive confusion in the markets.
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>> what are you telling clients to do? >> sure. >> what do you do? >> for the very short term, i think a lot of good things are priced into the market. we're up substantially from 1631 to up near 1700. equities have really had a heck of a run here. the things that could go wrong, the president had a tough stance there. the things that could go wrong are substantial. the republicans could actually use this fed chair appointment as kind of a bargaining chip. >> is it a two horse race? >> he is not as controversial as the other two. he has quite a resume behind his ears with mr. greenspan. he has got some very, very good
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credentials but he does not have that experience in terms of on the academic side. >> when you say that near term things are setting up volatility and you factor in that obama has gained political capital by leaving summers out of the fray as we go into the debt ceiling debates, how long does that last? >> the next 30 days, i want to be long. there is a lot of ways to play it. now is a good time to hedge the gains. >> i'm a buyer of bonds. i think that so much has been priced in op the negative side of the bonds. if you look at the investment grade bonds, you have a massive
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sell-off in some of the names. i just think so much negativity has been priced into bonds themselves, that they are a pretty good buy. >> so last question here, why did the financials rip to the upside? >> this is, i think, i would disagree. >> larry, good to see you. larry mcdonald of new edge. does it matter who is fed chair? >> i don't really think so. i would have thought that dovish would have hurt the financials
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because the financials themselves, the jp morgans, they talk about we will make more money if rate goes up if you have a positive ship to the yield curve. so i would have thought -- delayed taper. >> in terms of lending it's better for lending. and we did see that play out when it comes to the housing trade. >> to the other side of the coin is wells fargo and jp morgan, the rate rise in mortgages that we have seen and the decline in refis have really hurt that business. for me, again, it's a flip of a coin and as an active money manager i am always looking for the risk reward. >> flagstone is interesting. i think merrill lynch put it on one. that is a stealth way to play. you mentioned this before. the housing as well.
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that's a big move. i have liked it for a while. i still think that has some upside potential. >> j.p. morgan settled a 750 million dollar london -- i think if they could shoot down some of the problem areas, they are in the cross hairs right now. >> we will unveil the latest trade and the reasons behind her major move right after this break. plus more live coverage and the latest on the shootings at the d.c. navy yard. [ female announcer ] it's time for the annual shareholders meeting.
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>> let's get a market flash on outer wall. you might know this as the former coin star. >> that's right. it's a huge move for this company. like you said it's coin star. it came out after the close and basically cut its third quarter and full year profit and sales guidance. so not a good sign there. remember, outer wall owns all of the red box dvd rental kiosks and change counting machines. while volumes and sales are
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better in july and august than they were a year ago, they were still below expectations. redbox will better align its expenses in the future to be more in line with its growth expectations. back over to you. >> thank you very much. dan, what's the trade here. >> listen, they are expected to grow sales at 2% a year. flat forever now after hyper growth over the last years. 40 probably seems like a big technical level but the market cap is shrinking quickly. i would probably avoid it unless you really know the space here. >> it's a pretty big move here. karen made it. walk us through the trade? >> this is a decision i came to over the weekend and that was to sell apple. there were a lot of reasons. >> you're entirely out?
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>> entirely out. for one there is the issue with the smart phone business in general. so that's not news to anyone. to me it was a frustration with the stock and its valuation, which is still very attractive on valuation but there is a lot of other things around it. the market is -- the market is disjointed from bha is happening here. i don't know what the right valuation is or if they will ever align. i found that frustrating. too much psychic energy. later in the day, someone pointed out to me that it had crossed the 50 day, 100 day, 200 day. i was not following that at all until later. i was just throwing in the
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towel. i had a gain on it but i found it irrelevant. i get that i will get some criticism on that. >> far from it. >> thanks for saying. but i didn't think those two were correlated. apparently that also is part of the overall equation. that's where i am. >> that's one of the -- you make it interesting point. it's just at the end -- listen, i get the company and their products. but it's just a stock so don't get nuts. we're all at this desk. probably trades up to 510. sell it that day. that was your support. it was your support. trade through it and get out. to me it sets up to make a push down to the 425, 430 level
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again. it doesn't mean i hate the company or the stock but it does feel that's where we're headed. >> i think that is what we grapple with. it continues to trade poor ly. >> that is always the investor. you have to have a tremendous amount of patience. to for me, again, i thought 445, 450 is where it might get to. i would have to see it reverse. i would have to see upside momentum. >> the trading pattern was terrible today. and also there is news that china telecom is cutting back
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subsi subsidies. how does it tap into a market when it has a phone that is too expensive. >> i think the china thing is the only catalyst right now. i will say this. i think there is probably about 10% downside on a messy quarter or so. sooner or later they will get this portfolio of smart phones, at lower margins in the future. the china thing is going to come on. they will be selling smart phones at china mobile. so i believe somewhere between 450 and 400, i think you get back in. i would rather own apple than the s&p 500. >> let's say the apple store were the same today, at what price would you consider getting in? >> south of 400. for 10 or 20 bucks.
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>> now the technical side i'm not saying it's headed there. my sense is you will see one of the overcorrections to the dough. >> let's move on here and talk about a sector that held on. housing, we mentioned this earlier. this on the heels of larry summers exiting the race. >> brian kelly. >> i understand why not just take some off of the table. you have a huge event risk coming up. why not take a little bit off the table. >> i rarely talk etfs. the news is awful in the space and we said you buy these when the news is at its worst, which it was.
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now is when you start taking profits. it breaks out above 32. i would rather sell it here or look to buy it on a break out. >> what does the options market say about housing? >> when those stocks get down, they go out and they buy the calls, compared to some of the retailers, at this point i would much rather own the actual home builders. they are expected to have better growth and trading at a more reasonable valuation. >> all right. now let's hit pops and drops. >> made an acquisition, traded about ten times normal value. i don't think you chase this. but what i think it is interesting for, look at a name like federal express. not the same world but in the
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same types of businesses. i think this actually means good things for fedex. >> pop for delta airlines. oil prices were down about 2% today. that seems to be what is going on here. i don't think you chase this stock. >> drop for underarmor. >> this is a great company. i don't think the pe has ever been this high. >> and a pop for gold. >> they popped because you saw the futures pop in gold. what is concerning to me is the price action in gold. gold is telling you something. stay away from the gold buy. >> it has been five years since the fine shum collapse. we talk about whether they think we are better off now than ever before plus much,much more on
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>> let's get more on the breaking news out of the d.c. navy yard. >> hi. let me tell you what's going on right now as we continue to see groups of buses full of people emerging from the washington navy yard off in this direction. they are being escorted by police escorts, motorcycle police and other uniformed police officers and being escorted in this direction. we can assume that maybe some of
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these people are witnesses who have been sheltered all day. buses backed with people now sleeving the facility. we are learning a little bit of new information about the shooter killed in this incident. he had a previous arrest incident. he was arrested by the fort worst police for recklessly discharging a firearm. it was considered a class a misdemeanor and it was determined that he was cleaning his gun and was not filed. a 34-year-old male who was killed in this incident today. the senate, which was under a lock down, is now under a general release. they are letting the workers leave. that seems to have lightened up in terms of security, much less
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visible security in this area as well. >> thanks for that update. joining us now with this take is security expert and founder of roman and associates. this person had a previous arrest in 2010 for firearms related incident. this person is also a contractor for the u.s. government. how can this happen? >> it's remarkable but with low level security positions, individuals with certain types of misdemeanors can be cleared for non-secure facilities. we have to remember on a 65 acre complex with 40 buildings, there are classified units within those buildings. extra security is certainly provided for those particular locations. but to allow a individual with a firearm discharge misdemeanor, i would think is an oversight. >> it sounds like the navy yard
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is a sprawling complex. are those sorts of complexes much more difficult to secure because of the size of it? or can you just construct a wall and be safe? >> it's incredibly more difficult to secure. what you have here is a building, building 197, where the shooting occurred has 3,000 employees alone. you have 42 other buildings on site. you have a complex that is the size of a small city. you have mixed personnel coming on board. that is military, civilian and visitors to the naval museum, which is within that complex. so you have bus loads of tourists coming. they check their photo id. that's about the depth of the security that is provided. so it presents a real security challenge. >> sounds like a lot is going to change pretty quickly at this point in terms of the easiest
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defenses to construct right now what would they be? >> increased background investigations for the personnel. much more careful. these are performed by many independent contractors contracted with the federal government. and we saw in the snowden situation with an individual who had access to highly classified material was perhaps not checked as carefully as he should have been. so perhaps a reevaluation of the contractor program and more stringent requirements. >> thanks so much for coming by. it's been five years since the fall of lehman brothers. just how similar are the big banks of today to those of 2008. more on the tragedy when we come right back. stay tuned. my customers can shop around-- see who does good work and compare costs. it doesn't usually work that way with health care. but with unitedhealthcare,
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million shares in a secondary stock offering. pandora will sell 10 million of those shares using the proceeds for general corporate purposes. the other 4 million shares will be sold by affiliates which was an early pandora investor. with shares floating near record highs, the timing may look pretty good. >> all right. thank you very much. dan, you like the stock? >> the stock is fine. there is a lot of news in the last couple of weeks. they avoided the disaster and hired a new ceo. i think it's genius. raise money when you can, not when you have to. this may help them out in the future if they keep that nest egg for a time when things are not so rosy. >> today marks the five year anniversary of the collapse of lehman brothers. how similar are the banks of today to those of 2008? >> banks have been in slim down
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for the five years since that crisis. banks dissolving 20%. these are opaque corners where obscure business is done. they have not only been dissolving legal entities but also selling hundreds of billions of dollars of assets. that has caused assets to fall by 34% since the precrisis peek. but the greatest irony is that universal banks have actually gotten bigger. a lot have risen sharply. an average jump of 53%. what the system is relying on is the fact that the nature of the
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assets is safer. a larger portion of balance sheets is cash, which you see in green. and high risk loans, which you will see in orange in that chart, 17 pirs of assets compared to 23% in the crisis. capital being held is also near all time highs. banks have raised some $450 billion, nearly doubling tier one capital. banks is a it's not only enough but possibly too much but others have said there is still a risk a financial institution will fail. one thing is that the balance sheet does look a lot different than it did back then. >> thanks for that. let's get to the traders in terms of lessons learned. just because the balance sheets look different because the assets are higher quality, does that make it less of a probability that withere will ba
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failure? >> a lot of the risk has shifted out to insurance companies and hedge funds and globally and to the u.s. government. if you look at 30 year swap spreads which is basically corporate bonds versus the u.s. treasury, it is more risky to buy a 30 year u.s. treasury than a 30 year corporate bond which people thought was impossible in 2008. it has happened. that says to me the market is still saying the next crisis we have is not going to be with the banks but with the u.s. government. >> that was a really wonky explanation. >> i love wonk. >> i was at merrill lynch five years ago today and a lot of people thought they were next and we were going to be the next one to go urnld. you see a lot of people leave the business and some of the best and brightest are not
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there. >> you left? >> i didn't mean to put that in the best and brighter. but the kids are not coming any more. they are going to do other things. that period of time where some of the highest ranking people at those banks got so grad greedy wanted to pay themselves $100 milli millions. >> does this mean that banks as an investment are worse than they were in 2008? >> you might be able to make that argument. >> in terms of returns? >> yes. the pendulum clearly swang too far. that brought with it a whole set of risks. i think the pendulum has swung to the other end of the coin which brings an entirely new set of risks. i think we have learned things but i don't think we have learned our lesson. there is just risk that has transferred someplace else. >> as a money manager, how have
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you changed? >> an appreciation for how quickly things can change. when you see particularly financial services business that are so susceptible to unraveling immediately unlike a retailer that gets in trouble, it doesn't affect people doing business in there. i think that a lot of what we regulate against probably won't be what causes -- i like the money centered banks, actually. and i think risk adjusted they are probably better now than they were then. i like them. that's where i want to be. i feel like you always have to be hedged but i also feel like that's not the problem. it's something else. we don't know yet that i can't forsey but i have to always be aware that, you know, they are out there. stuff you couldn't imagine has happened. >> it may have been five years
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but a new worry is gripping the streets today. yet another trading glitch. let's bring in one of the frustrated options traders. john joins us on the fast line. good to speak with you. some people will want to minimize this and say you know what? it lasted 17 minutes, what's the big deal. what is the big deal? >> i think it's a very good way to get a panic started when you inhibit people from trading. there are people who day trade still, who trade in and out and many of those folks seeing their pnls swing violently as mine did because, of course, the equity option exclahanges were forced shut down. basically could not dissimilar nate bids, offers, and last
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trades. if you can't get the quotes out, then they did the right thing. took them ten minutes to shut it down. a number of exchanges took it upon themselves. many have come out and said what the problem was, melissa. that's something that is discouraging. hundreds of thousands of option contracts lighter than normal volume today. and one of the prime kaucauses that is from almost 25 minutes, bottom of the hour, until 1:55 to 1:57 eastern time we had a disruption in trading. it became an outright trading halt. that is not good for investor confidence and certainly not
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good following on the heels of the two outages. >> it's not good for investors who wanted to hedge their positions via the options. and we saw the spill over effect. >> and that time period that dock mentioned, the futures sold off five handles. that's what we saw right there. >> i always wonder why wouldn't it go up five for just the same reason? >> it could have. and in this situation the market hads been declining and it was a loss of confidence. >> if you're an individual investor at home you may have gone the whole day without realizing this had happened. does this mat sner. >> it matters in that they need to address the issues and address them quickly.
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now what? they need to have another meeting this week? these are problems that need to be addressed right now and unfortunately, many are underfunded. we know that. but they need to get moving on these topics right now and get to the bottom of what caused them we still don't know who weeks after the nasdaq issue what caused that. >> all right. all great points. thanks for joining us. >> coming up next, more live coverage of the shooting spree at the navy yard. >> plus the rally on the street losing steam in the final hour. [ male announcer ] what?! investors could lose tens of thousands of dollars in hidden fees on their 401(k)s?! go to e-trade and roll over your old 401(k)s to a new e-trade retirement account. none of them charge annual fees and all of them offer low cost investments. e-trade. less for us. more for you.
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>> welcome back. let's get the latest on the tragedy out of d.c. today. >> reporter: hi, melissa. a couple little white house items to bring you up to date. we know that the president of the united states has called the secretary of the navy to express his condolences for the lives lost today in the attack on the
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washington navy yard. ultimately 13 dead, including the shooter, a 34-year-old man from fort hood, texas. the white house has now cancelled a musical event that was scheduled to be there. the tone simply not right to have a celebration at the white house on a night with an attack here in washington. >> thank you very much. let's continue our coverage, bringing in michael, the former new york homeland security committee chairman. great to have you with us. at this point in the investigation what is your guess as to what is going on and the search for this person of interest right now? >> obviously they are going to focus on how this man got this active id. we expect that there are soft targets. places where you wouldn't expect an armed instrugs. anything associated with the military is not one of them. one of the key factors in terms of security and protection is to make sure that the people who come on to the campus are
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properly identified. that's going to be the first thing. the question it raises was the badge given voluntarily? was it part of a conspiracy? was it stolen? if it was stolen, why was it not reported. these questions are going to be the focus as the hours go on. and how was he able to get on campus with the weapons. >> and how did he have an arrest with a firearms incident and still approved to be a government contractor. at this point, what do you think is happening across the u.s. government with all the contractors right now that are on the payroll. >> if we go back to the snowden incident, obviously not the same in terms of a violent act but it raises again what are the credentials and background checks for the folks who do very sensitive work for us.
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the folks who work for the military across this country and what type of steps they take. we have to take into account whether fl there is a history o mental illness. came into the issue of the worldwide conflicts. we done know yet. but again these all raise questions as to why and how someone could get into a military facility and open fire on folks sitting in a cafeteria. >> right. now there is a search right now for another suspect out there. a person of interest. we have seen what has gone on in the boston shootings where people were ordered to stay wherever they are so police could go door to door. at this point in d.c. why is that not going on and what do you think is happening in terms of this search for this other
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person? >> what the authorities are doing when this happened is obviously they lock down immediately during the incident. when the perpetrator is taken out by whatever means, unless there is immediate information that says there is another active shooter, now they're going to do an associational investigation. who educational did the individual know? what other leads are there. the information is changed continuously. the officials may be following on a bunch of leads that don't indicate any immediate jeopardy. we will know more as the investigation continues. they are looking at who did this guy know? who did he hang out with? that's really where the focus of the investigation is going right now. >> thanks for joining us,
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appreciate it. former new york homeland security committee chairman. coming up, we have the biggest moments captured on tape. thank you orville and wilbur... ...amelia... neil and buzz: for teaching us that you can't create the future... by clinging to the past. and with that: you're history. instead of looking behind... delta is looking beyond. 80 thousand of us investing billions... in everything from the best experiences below... to the finest comforts above. we're not simply saluting history... we're making it. and then another. and another. and if you do it. and your friends do it. and their friends do it... soon we'll be walking our way to awareness, support and an end to alzheimer's disease.
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and that? that would be big. grab your friends and family and start a team today. register at alz.org (announcer) at scottrade, our clto make their money do more.re (ann) to help me plan my next move, i take scottrade's free, in-branch seminars... plus, their live webinars. i use daily market commentary to improve my strategy. and my local scottrade office guides my learning every step of the way. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade... ranked "highest in customer loyalty for brokerage and investment companies."
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>> here is a rapid fire recount of tonight's executive edge. >> i think we made the right decision given the senate opposition. hard to get to 60 in normal circumstances. i'm afraid one day that the senate will catch fire and they will asphyxiate. >> he has regained the stance as front runner. the jeeld kerve gets an scored. the front end does well. the equity market like that. a broad based rally. >> the biggest problem in the u.s. is the stock market has been tremendously fragmented.
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you can trade stocks 50 different places and most of those places are not very transparent and that's a problem. >> let's see all of the bank accounts and assets. how much could you sell in what's the real deadline. >> do you believe october first is a phoney date? >> it always has been in the past. >> our economy is not growing as fast as it should and we're not creating as many jobs as we should. because the sequester is in place. that is not my opinion. that is the opinion of independent economists. >> what stuck out to you? >> john thain, it's a bit hypocrite call. he was the chairman of the new york stock exchange. some of the things they put in place led to the fragmentation. he has got a bid of a short memory. >> bk? >> for me it goes back to the
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summers comments. i was surprised that his stone was not taken as more of a negative. it certainly seemed like he was gearing up for a fight. >> it was interesting to see the hmos trading higher thinking he is standing by the affordable care act, obama care. >> to your point, we have seen this movie before. i don't expect it to play out the same way that we saw it last year. we had a lot of panic right into the 11th hour on december 31. i think there will be some form of pcompromise. >> all right. we have your first move for tomorrow. stay right here.
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is the official retirement age. ♪ the question is how do you make sure you have the money you need to enjoy all of these years. ♪ >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. >> previously i talked about at&t. >> brian kelly? >> you know, volatility is not that expensive. i think you can buy some puts here even if you're in the market. >> karen? >> i kind of agree here. i have got to go with some mid cap protection. >> scary when you agree with bk.
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my final trade is not buying jim. i don't know where that came from. >> it's not buying gm. >> i'm mellissa lee. thanks for watching. meantime, "mad money" starts right now. . >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! . >> hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make money. my job is not just to coach, teach, entertain, but the educate. call me. 1-800-343-doctor nbc. dow soared 119 points, s&p
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